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[译文]人类与其他猎食者有何不同?

‘Superpredator’ humans are hunting other animals out of existence
“超级猎手”–人类正将其他动物赶尽杀绝

作者:Elizabeth Pennisi @ 2015-08-20
译者:易海(@胡海栋2221)
校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:Science,http://news.sciencemag.org/plants-animals/2015/08/superpredator-humans-are-hunting-other-animals-out-existence

【尽管大型肉食动物对于生态系统健康至关重要,但人类出于运动消遣目的而对它们的猎杀,其速度是其他物种的九倍。】

A new study drives home the destructive power of our species. Not only do we kill other animals at much higher rates than other predators, but our ability to bring down larger adults can make it very difficult for some prey populations to recover. This superpredator status may fill our bellies, but it(more...)

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‘Superpredator’ humans are hunting other animals out of existence “超级猎手”--人类正将其他动物赶尽杀绝 作者:Elizabeth Pennisi @ 2015-08-20 译者:易海(@胡海栋2221) 校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:Science,http://news.sciencemag.org/plants-animals/2015/08/superpredator-humans-are-hunting-other-animals-out-existence 【尽管大型肉食动物对于生态系统健康至关重要,但人类出于运动消遣目的而对它们的猎杀,其速度是其他物种的九倍。】 A new study drives home the destructive power of our species. Not only do we kill other animals at much higher rates than other predators, but our ability to bring down larger adults can make it very difficult for some prey populations to recover. This superpredator status may fill our bellies, but it has darker implications. "Any predator capable of exerting such impact will eventually drive its prey to extinction," warns Gerardo Ceballos, an ecologist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. 一项新研究清楚揭示了我们人类的破坏力。不仅是因为我们猎杀动物的速度比其他种类的捕食者更快,还在于我们能够捕杀成年个体,这使得猎物的种群更加难以恢复。这种超级猎手的身份可以满足我们的口腹之欲,但它有很消极的影响。Gerardo Ceballos是位于墨西哥城的墨西哥国立自治大学的一位生态学家,他警告说:“任何有能力施加这种影响的捕食者,最终都将导致它的猎物走向灭绝。” It’s happened before. About 14,000 years ago, humans entering North America caused many large species, such as the mammoth, to disappear. And our hunting technologies have only improved since then, particularly when it comes to catching fish. Overfishing is a severe problem in some parts of the world, and a recent report concludes that because of human activity, more than 90 fish species are at risk of extinction. 这种灭绝事件曾经发生过。大约在1.4万年前,人类进入北美,导致许多大型动物灭绝,例如猛犸象。我们的捕猎技术,特别捕鱼技术,是从那时候才开始提高的。过度捕捞在世界上的某些地方是非常严重的问题,最近的一项报告指出,有超过九十种鱼类由于人类活动而面临灭绝的危险。 The new study originated in a casual observation. Thomas Reimchen, an evolutionary ecologist at the University of Victoria in Canada, has spent years studying how predators impact the stickleback fish on an island 130 kilometers off the Canadian Pacific coast. Over the decades he determined that each species never kills more than 2% of the sticklebacks per year and usually attacks juveniles. 这项新研究源于一个偶然的观察。加拿大维多利亚大学的进化生态学家Thomas Reimchen常年在距加拿大太平洋海岸130千米的一个海岛上研究捕食者如何影响棘鱼。数十年的研究之后,他发现每个捕食物种每年捕食的棘鱼不会超过2% ,并且捕杀的通常是幼体。 Yet off that same island, fishermen seemed to be taking a far higher percentage of salmon, mostly adults. The contrast bothered him, so Reimchen and a few former students searched the scientific literature for data on the rate at which humans and other animals were killing other species. 然而,在同一海岛附近,渔民捕捞的三文鱼远远超过这个比例,而且捕捞的都是成年个体。这种对比让他很困扰,所以Reimchen 和他之前的几个学生查阅了很多科学文献,来查找人类和其它动物捕杀其他生物的速度。 After a decade compiling and analyzing about 300 studies, the team came to some grim conclusions, says Chris Darimont, a conservation scientist also at the University of Victoria who helped lead the study. Humans and other predators—like lions, wolves, and grizzly bears—kill wild herbivores at about the same rate, but humans kill large carnivores at nine times the rate of other predators, Darimont, Reimchen, and their colleagues report today in Science. 同样来自维多利亚大学的环境保护科学家Chris Darimont说,在经过了十年时间对大约三百项研究的汇编和分析之后,他领导的团队得到了一些残酷的结论。人类和其他捕食者如狮子、狼和灰熊捕杀野生食草动物的速度差不多,但人类捕杀大型食肉动物的速度是其他捕食者的九倍。Darimont与 Reimchen以及他们的同事现已将这一结果发表在《科学》杂志上(8月21日号)。 We kill those carnivores not for food, but for trophies and—sometimes—to eliminate them as competitors, Darimont says. Because they naturally don’t face much predation, they have not evolved ways to successfully avoid humans or reproduce fast enough to make up for human-induced losses. Darimont说,我们杀死这些食肉动物不是为了食用,而是当做战利品,或者,有时把他们当做竞争对手而淘汰掉。由于这些食肉动物很少遭遇自然捕食,它们还没能进化出能成功躲避人类捕杀的方式,也没能进化出足够快的繁殖能力来弥补人类引起的种群数量的减少。 But the toll on fish is even greater. The researchers report that people catch adult fish at a rate up to 14 times other predators. Thanks to mechanized fishing, the annual human toll on marine fish may exceed 100 million tons. What's worse, by focusing on catching large adults, fishing removes individuals in their reproductive prime that are needed to replenish diminishing populations. Already,?this fishing pressure has caused species to evolve new growth patterns and behaviors. 鱼群被捕杀的程度更为严重。研究者说,人类捕杀成年鱼类的速度是其他捕食者的14倍。由于机械化捕捞,每年人类捕杀的海洋鱼类可能超过一亿吨。更糟糕的是,由于捕捞的都是大型成年个体,捕鱼业捞走了那些繁殖能力最强的青壮年个体,而它们对于补充种群数量很重要。人类捕捞所带来的压力已经使物种进化出新的生长模式和行为。 Marine ecologist Nicholas Dulvy from Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, Canada, is pleased with the work. Hunting and fishing have "not captured the public attention necessary to change the status quo," says Dulvy, who was not involved with the study. "The disparity between human and animal predation rates is a useful way of illustrating how ecologically out-of-whack many exploitation rates and management policies are." Darimont thinks people need to take a lesson from other predators, switching the focus to catching juveniles and lowering catch rates. 加拿大本那比市西蒙·弗雷泽大学的海洋生态学家Nicholas Dulvy对这项工作很满意。他并没有参与这项研究,但他说,“猎杀和捕捞并没能在公众眼中引起足以改变现状的关注度。人类和动物捕杀速度的不同,是说明开采速度和管理政策如何造成生态紊乱的一个有效途径。”Darimont 认为人类应该向其他捕食者学习,转而捕杀幼体并降低捕杀速度。 But others take issue with the study's approach and conclusions. "I think it’s total rubbish," says Ray Hilborn, an ecologist at the University of Washington, Seattle. An expert on sustainable exploitation, he says that even though humans may take more fish than any one predator, their haul makes up only 40% of total natural predation on fish. 但有人对该项研究的方法以及结论持有异议。华盛顿大学西雅图分校的生态学家Ray Hilborn说:“我认为那项研究完全就是垃圾”。Ray Hilborn是可持续发展方面的专家,他说尽管人类捕捞的鱼远超过其他捕食者,但他们的捕捞量也只及被自然捕食的鱼类数量的40%。 Hilborn says this is a reasonable amount given the need to provide food for the human population, and the new work is “fuzzing up what we mean by sustainability.” He says he doesn't think that people can fish less and still provide enough food for the world. 他认为,相对于人类的食物需求,这是一个合理的数量,最新的这一研究工作“错误理解了我们所说的可持续发展”。他说,他不认为人类能在减少捕鱼量的同时依然能为这个世界提供足够的食物。 Even so, people should take a really hard look at management practices that go after the largest individuals, says Blaire Van Valkenburgh, a paleoecologist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who was not involved with the work. "Getting that attitude to change is going to be very difficult, but at least [with this paper] we will be able to get some people to talk about it." 加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校的古生态学家Blaire Van Valkenburgh(他并没有参与这项研究工作)认为,即便如此,人类也应该仔细审视自己专门捕捞大型个体的做法。“让人们改变目前的态度是非常困难的,但至少(这篇论文)会让一些人来讨论这个问题。” (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]旧石器食谱与火

Paleo Diet and Fire
旧石器食谱与火

作者:Peter Turchin @ 2014-08-07
译者:Dr啊(@Dr啊)
校对:Drunkplane(@Drunkplane-zny)
来源:evolution-institute.org,https://evolution-institute.org/blog/paleo-diet-and-fire/

It’s been a while since my last update on the Paleo diet (perhaps a better name for it is ‘Post-Neolithic diet’). Here are the links to previous blogs on this theme:

自我上次更新关于旧石器食谱(也许更好的名字是‘后新石器食谱’)的情况到现在已经有一段时间了。这是我之前有关这一话题的几篇博文的链接:

http://socialevolutionforum.com/2012/08/23/an-update-on-my-so-called-paleo-diet/
http://socialevolutionforum.com/2013/07/20/adventures-in-paleo-eating-bone-marrow/
http://socialevolutionforum.com/2013/05/04/breadfruit/

As long-time readers of my blog remember, I switched to Paleo diet in May of 2012. Within two months I noticed an improvement in my health. After half a year I lost 20 pounds and my health improved dramatically. A number of chronic health problems cleared up. At that point, I made the decision to permanently switch to this diet, and I never looked back.

我博客的长期读者还记得,我在2012年五月转向旧石器食谱。两个月之内我就发现我的健康状况有所改善。半年之后,我减掉了20磅(more...)

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Paleo Diet and Fire 旧石器食谱与火 作者:Peter Turchin @ 2014-08-07 译者:Dr啊(@Dr啊) 校对:Drunkplane(@Drunkplane-zny) 来源:evolution-institute.org,https://evolution-institute.org/blog/paleo-diet-and-fire/ It’s been a while since my last update on the Paleo diet (perhaps a better name for it is ‘Post-Neolithic diet’). Here are the links to previous blogs on this theme: 自我上次更新关于旧石器食谱(也许更好的名字是‘后新石器食谱’)的情况到现在已经有一段时间了。这是我之前有关这一话题的几篇博文的链接: http://socialevolutionforum.com/2012/08/23/an-update-on-my-so-called-paleo-diet/ http://socialevolutionforum.com/2013/07/20/adventures-in-paleo-eating-bone-marrow/ http://socialevolutionforum.com/2013/05/04/breadfruit/ As long-time readers of my blog remember, I switched to Paleo diet in May of 2012. Within two months I noticed an improvement in my health. After half a year I lost 20 pounds and my health improved dramatically. A number of chronic health problems cleared up. At that point, I made the decision to permanently switch to this diet, and I never looked back. 我博客的长期读者还记得,我在2012年五月转向旧石器食谱。两个月之内我就发现我的健康状况有所改善。半年之后,我减掉了20磅体重,同时健康状况大幅提高。很多长期的健康问题都不见了。在那时,我决定永远的遵循这一食谱,而且再也不会回头了。 Over the last year I noticed another incremental and slow, but real, improvement. I feel better than when I was 10 years ago. I became noticeably stronger – I can now easily lift and carry things that used to give me trouble before. More embarrassingly, people comment on how well I look. I am getting a bit tired of explaining the Paleo diet, over and over again. 在过去的一整年,我发现我的健康状况有了另一种持续增长的,缓慢的,但却很真实的改善。我比十年感觉更好。很明显,我变得更强壮了——我现在可以轻易地举起并搬运之前很难搬动的物体。更让人不好意思的是,人们总是夸我气色看起来有多么好。我都有点疲于一遍遍的解释旧石器食谱这件事了。 The gospel of Paleo diet is spreading. My wife has converted to it, then my mother. My secretary.Several friends and colleagues. I am not urging anybody to switch, but the results speak for themselves. On the other hand, none of the people whom I infected with Paleo had experienced as great improvement as me. 旧石器食谱的福音一直在传播。我妻子已经皈依了,继而是我的母亲,我的秘书,还有几个朋友和同事。我并不是在劝任何人转向这一食谱,但是结果说明了一切。而另一方面,在所有被我带动并遵循该食谱的人当中,没人经历了像我这样巨大的改善。 This can be due to my genetics (I have very few generations of Neolithic ancestors). It could also be due to the fact that I am simply not tempted to stray. When I am home, I stay strictly within the guidelines (no grains, no legumes, no dairy). When I travel I periodically get poisoned because I have no control over the ingredients. 这有可能因为我的基因(大概我的新石器祖先总共才没几代吧,呵呵)。这也可能只是因为我从不试图背离该食谱。当我在家的时候,我严格遵循食谱指示(不吃谷物,不吃豆类,不吃奶制品)。当我偶尔离家在外就难免被那些食物‘毒’到,毕竟我无法控制外面食物的配料。 Anyway, the real purpose of this blog is to discuss the book I just finished reading, which is very relevant to the Paleo diet (but I thought that an update on my own experience was due). The book is by a colleague of mine, Richard Wrangham: Catching Fire: How Cooking Made Us Human. It’s a great book, and I recommend that everybody interested in human evolution read it. 总之,这篇博文其实是要讨论一本我刚刚读过的书,此书跟旧石器食谱非常相关(但我觉得是时候要更新一下我自己的亲身经历了)。这本书是我的一位叫理查德·兰厄姆的同事所作,书名叫《燃起火堆:烹饪如何铸就了人类》。这是本了不起的书,我推荐所有对人类进化感兴趣的人都读一下。 What I found most interesting in Richard’s book is his reconstruction of the dietary shifts that enabled the evolution of large human brains (which then made possible culture, living in large groups, language, art, science, and civilization – and who knows what else). 我认为理查德书中最有趣的一点是他对饮食变化的重构。正是饮食的变化让人类进化出了巨大的大脑(该变化同时也让文化,大型群居,语言,艺术,科学和文明以及其他数不清的事情成为可能)。 The first step, which took place 5-7 million years ago, was the transition from our chimpanzee-like ancestors, forest apes, to australopithecines that inhabited drier savanna-woodlands. Australopithecine brain size (in anthropologese, “cranial capacity”) was 450 cubic cm, compared to 350-400 cm3 in forest apes. 第一阶段发生在500-700万年前,这期间我们黑猩猩般的祖先——森林猿——开始转变成南方古猿,并开始在更加干燥的稀树草原上生活。南方古猿的大脑尺寸(用人类学术语叫‘颅容量’)是450立方厘米,相比之下森林猿的大脑尺寸是350-400立方厘米。 Incidentally, and as an aside, I find slightly amusing, but mostly exasperating, Richard’s dutiful translation of cubic centimeters into cubic inches. Americans, isn’t it time to grow up? Get used to metric units! Does it really help you to know that the cranial capacity of Australopithecus was 27.5 cubic inches? If I show you an object, will you be able to estimate its volume in cubic inches? End of diatribe. 顺带说句题外话,我觉得有一件略微有些喜感但又实在让人恼火的事情,那就是理查德坚定不移的将立方厘米转换成立方英寸。美国同胞们,是时候长大了吧?赶快习惯使用公制单位吧!你真的觉得将南方古猿的大脑说成27.5立方英寸更能帮助你理解?假如我随便拿个物体,你能用立方英寸估算其容量吗?好了,牢骚到此结束。 The food resource that enabled this transition was the underground storage parts of plants, highly concentrated sources of energy-rich starch. Parenthetically, that’s why potatoes, yams, carrots, beets, sweet potatoes, and taro are such great foods for humans – we have been eating them, or equivalents, for millions of years. Australopithecines dug these tubers, rhizomes, and corms (we are now speaking ‘botanese’) with sharpened sticks. 让这一步转变得以发生的食物来源是植物埋在地下的“储能”部分——那富含高能量淀粉的根茎。顺便说一句,这也是为什么土豆,山药,胡萝卜,甜菜根,红薯和芋头是对人类非常好的食物——我们已经食用这些或类似食物几百万年了。南方古猿用削尖了的棍棒将地下的块茎,根状茎,以及球茎(我们好像在说‘不丹语’)挖出来。 The next step was the transition to ‘habilines’ (such as Homo habilis) more than 2 million years ago: from 450 to 612 cm3. The big dietary change that fueled this increase in brain size was probably meat eating. Or marrow eating – see my blog on this issue. 接下来的阶段发生在200多万年前,南方古猿转变成‘人属猿人’(比如‘能人’),其大脑尺寸也从450立方厘米增加到了612立方厘米。造成大脑尺寸增加的饮食变化可能是肉类的摄取或是骨髓的摄取——请参见我的这篇博文(https://evolution-institute.org/blog/adventures-in-paleo-eating-bone-marrow/?source=sef)。 After that, brain size in early human started growing in a really explosive manner. Early Homo erectus (1.8 million years ago) had brains of 870 cm3. 800 thousand years ago Homo heidelbergensis (which could be simply a subspecies of erectus) had brains of 1200 cm3. That’s awfully close to the modern Homo sapiens, whose cranial capacity is 1400 cm3. 在这之后,早期人类的大脑尺寸开始爆炸式的增长。早期的直立猿人(180万年前)拥有870立方厘米的大脑。80万年前的海德堡人(可能只是直立人的一个亚种)拥有1200立方厘米的大脑。这个尺寸已经非常接近现代智人1400立方厘米的大脑尺寸了。 Where did the energy that fueled these oversize brains come from? Wrangham argues that it came from cooking. I find his argument quite convincing. Thermal processing of tubers and meats doubles the ability of our guts to extract calories and nutrients from these food sources. 支撑这种大尺寸大脑的能量来自什么地方?兰厄姆认为来自烹饪。我亦觉得他的论点很有说服力。对块茎和肉类的热加工让我们的消化系统从这些食材中攫取热量和营养的能力翻了倍。 The use of fire is securely attested at the Gesher Benot Ya’akov site near Jordan River, which is dated to 790,000 years ago. But here we have archaeological evidence of hearths, permanent fires around which human nuclear families would gather around every evening for the most important meal of the day. It is quite likely that hearths were a product of long evolution, with humans using fire for cooking well before the evolution of human family (which as Wrangham argues, was itself a result of cooking food – but you will have to read his book to find out the details of the argument). 现在已经确切证明了,早在79万年前,约旦河附近的Gesher Benot Ya’akov遗址中,火就已经被使用了。现在我们又有了关于灶台的考古学证据,核心家庭成员每天晚上会为了一天当中最重要的一餐而聚集在一堆持续燃烧的火堆周围。灶台很可能是一个长期进化的产物,毕竟人类使用火进行烹饪要远远早于家庭的进化(亦如兰厄姆所提出,家庭这一概念本身也是烹饪食物所带来的结果——但是你得去读他的书来了解这个论点的更多细节)。 Even if you buy Wrangham’s theory (which I do), it raises some questions. When did humans learn how to start fires? Remember The Quest for Fire, where the plot centers on this issue? 就算你同意兰厄姆的理论(我就同意),这其中仍然有些疑问。人类什么时候开始学会生火的?还记得电影《火之战》吗,整部电影的情节都是围绕这个问题展开的。 OK, it’s getting late, so I’d better end this post. But I can’t resist adding one thing. What makes Richard’s arguments particularly compelling is his ‘experimental’ approach to the questions he discusses. He has tried eating like a gorilla (he failed, we simply don’t have the guts for the gorilla diet). Another experiment he tried with his friends was chewing raw goat meat – with or without adding tough leaves. Sure, adding leaves produced better traction to reduce goat’s thigh muscle. But cooking it worked even better. 好啦,时候不早了,我最好给文章结个尾。但是我必须再说一点。让理查德的论证异常有说服力的是,他对所讨论的问题使用了‘实验性’的方法。他曾经尝试像只大猩猩那么吃(他最终失败了,我们就是没有勇气像大猩猩那么吃【译注:原文“gut”为“肠胃”与“勇气”之双关,按兰厄姆的观点,人类无法像大猩猩那么吃,是因为我们的肠胃已经适应了熟食】)。他和他的朋友所尝试的另一个实验是直接进食生的山羊肉——不确定是否同时吃一些硬的植物叶子。诚然,吃生山羊肉的时候加点硬叶子可以增加附着力从而分解山羊紧致的肌肉。但是把羊肉烹饪一下肯定更好。【译注:黑猩猩吃肉时会掺一些叶子一起嚼。】 So what’s the take-home lesson? Fire up that barbecue grill – we evolved to eat meat cooked over the open fire! 所以今天我们学到了什么呢?点燃烧烤炉吧,我们进化到要吃用明火烹饪过的食物了! (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]你愿意为安全而多付两块钱吗?

Study: Audiences Want Metal Detectors in Theaters, But Won’t Pay Extra
调查:观众希望剧院保证安全,却不愿额外付款

作者:Brett Lang @ 2015-8-5
译者:元渡     校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:Yahoo, https://www.yahoo.com/movies/study-audiences-want-metal-detectors-in-theaters-125871583067.html

Despite the recent shooting at a Louisiana screening of Trainwreck, Americans still believe movie theaters are among the safest public places. Three quarters of moviegoers say they feel extremely or very safe in a theater, according to a new study from research firm C4.

最近,电影《生活残骸》在路易斯安那放映时,发生了枪击案,尽管如此,美国人依然相信电影院是最安全的公共场所之一。根据研究公司C4的一项最新调查,四分之三的观众认为他们在电影院极其安全或非常安全。

Although they feel secure, there are certain security measures that customers support. Nearly a third of moviegoers believe that bags and purses should be checked for weapons before people go into a theater, and 34% believe that lobbies should have armed security personnel and a metal detector. Fourteen percent of respondents pushed for armed security in each theater, the report found.

尽管观众存在安全感,他们依然支持采用一些必要的安全措施。接近三分之一的观(more...)

标签:
6074
Study: Audiences Want Metal Detectors in Theaters, But Won’t Pay Extra 调查:观众希望剧院保证安全,却不愿额外付款 作者:Brett Lang @ 2015-8-5 译者:元渡     校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:Yahoo, https://www.yahoo.com/movies/study-audiences-want-metal-detectors-in-theaters-125871583067.html Despite the recent shooting at a Louisiana screening of Trainwreck, Americans still believe movie theaters are among the safest public places. Three quarters of moviegoers say they feel extremely or very safe in a theater, according to a new study from research firm C4. 最近,电影《生活残骸》在路易斯安那放映时,发生了枪击案,尽管如此,美国人依然相信电影院是最安全的公共场所之一。根据研究公司C4的一项最新调查,四分之三的观众认为他们在电影院极其安全或非常安全。 Although they feel secure, there are certain security measures that customers support. Nearly a third of moviegoers believe that bags and purses should be checked for weapons before people go into a theater, and 34% believe that lobbies should have armed security personnel and a metal detector. Fourteen percent of respondents pushed for armed security in each theater, the report found. 尽管观众存在安全感,他们依然支持采用一些必要的安全措施。接近三分之一的观众认为,在人们进入电影院前应该对其手袋和钱包进行武器检查,35%的观众认为,应该在前堂配备武装安保人员和金属探测器。调查发现,有14%的受访者强烈要求每个剧院都配备武装安保。 The study’s authors surveyed 250 moviegoers on July 28 and 29. 这项研究的作者们在6月28、29两天调查了250名电影发烧友。 “Movie theaters are still up there as safe spaces,” said Ben Spergel, executive vice president of consumer insights at C4. “People really do think of them as places to escape and not think about realities of the world.” “电影院仍然被看做是安全的场所,”C4公司主管消费者洞察的执行副总裁Ben Spergel说道。“人们真的把电影院当做逃避的地方,在这里不用去思考现实世界。” Yet recent acts of violence have threatened to shatter that image of movie theaters as safe havens. The shooting two weeks ago in Lafayette, La., left three people dead and nine injured. It is the second incident of movie theater violence in recent years, coming on the heels of the 2012 shooting of 12 people at a screening of The Dark Knight Rises in Aurora, Colo. 然而,最近的暴力事件已经动摇了电影院作为安全避风港的形象。两周前,路易斯安那的Lafayette枪击案中,三死九伤。这是近年来发生的第二起电影院暴力事件,紧随2012年科罗多拉州Aurora在电影《蝙蝠侠:黑暗骑士崛起》放映时的枪击案,后者造成12人死亡。 The murders have kicked off a debate about what precautions the exhibition industry needs to institute in order to prevent future deaths and injuries. In the days after the shooting, Trainwreck star Amy Schumer threw her support behind legislation designed to address gun violence. 枪击案激起了关于展演行业如何制定预防措施来阻止再次出现死伤的讨论。枪击发生之后,《生活残骸》出演明星Amy Schumer表示全力支持旨在解决枪击暴力的立法。 Spergel thinks the nature of the discussion about Lafayette and Aurora has had an impact on consumer’s desire for heightened movie theater security. Spergel认为,关于Lafayette和Aurora事件的讨论的特点,对消费者加强电影院安全性的愿望不无影响。 “The media coverage has been more about the people who do these acts rather than where they are being done,” he said. “The conversation has been about gun laws and gun use and gun safety.” “媒体报道更关注于枪击案案犯而不是它们的发生地点,”他说。“讨论的一直都是枪支法规、枪支使用以及枪支安全。” Although a substantial portion of moviegoers seemed to want to tighten safety measures, they balked at paying more to help cover the additional costs of installing metal detectors and posting guards. Only 13% of respondents said they would pay $3 more for tickets in order to get those additional security features. 尽管很大部分观众似乎希望加强安全措施,但他们却不愿支付因为安装金属探测器和派驻安保带来的额外开销。仅有13%的受访者说他们将会为获得附加安全功能支付3美元. Analysts argued that the box office fallout from the shootings was minimal, and C4’s research seemed to confirm that assessment. In a follow-up study of 124 moviegoers, 85% reported that the shooting in Louisiana will have no impact on their theater habits. 分析人士认为,枪击案对电影票房的影响微乎其微,C4公司的研究似乎证实了这个判断。在对124名观众的后续研究中,85%的人认为路易斯安那枪击案不会对他们的观影习惯造成影响。 Respondents ranked movie theaters after airports, which boast guards and metal detectors as the third safest spaces, behind their homes and workplaces, and ahead of their cars, stores or malls, churches and concerts. That could change, Spergel noted, and another tragedy may amplify the calls for more preventative steps. 受访者将电影院排在机场之后,后者因有警卫和金属探测器而被认为是第三安全的地方,安全性次于他们的住宅以及工作场所,排在他们的汽车、商店或者购物中心、教堂、音乐会之前。Spergel指出,这情况可能会改变,再有这样的悲剧发生或许会放大加强预防措施的呼吁。 “If this happens again or becomes more of a trend, theaters aren’t going to have a choice,” said Spergel. “They’re going to have to put in some of these measures and moviegoers are going to have to pay more.” “如果(枪击事件)再度发生,或者很大程度上有这样的趋势,电影院将没有选择,”Spergel说道。“他们将不得不采取这些措施,而观众将不得不支付更多。” (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]通往地狱的快车道

Stairway to hell: life and death in the pop music industry
通向地狱的阶梯:流行音乐界的生与死

作者:Dianna Theadora Kenny @2014-10-27
译者:Horace Rae(@sheldon_rae) 校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/stairway-to-hell-life-and-death-in-the-pop-music-industry-32735

Musicians such as Amy Winehouse die young at much higher rates than the rest of the population. EPA/Andy Rain 像Amy Winehouse这样的音乐家英年早逝的几率比其他人大。EPA/Andy Rain

Musicians such as Amy Winehouse die young at much higher rates than the rest of the population. EPA/Andy Rain
像Amy Winehouse这样的音乐家英年早逝的几率比其他人大。EPA/Andy Rain

Art is a cry of distress from those who live out within themselves the destiny of humanity … Inside them turns the movement of the world; only an echo of it leaks out – the work of art Arnold Schoenberg, 1910.

“艺术是毕生实践人类命运者的痛苦呐喊……世界在他们的身体里流变;只有一丝回声流露出来——那就是艺术品。”——阿诺德·勋伯格,1910年。

Austrian composer Arnold Schoenberg, like many gifted artists throughout history, suffered for his art. Popular artists of the modern era have kept this tradition alive. For all the superficial glamour of the pop music world, let us not delude ourselves – today’s popular music scene is brutal.

就像历史上许多天赋异禀的艺术家一样,奥地利作曲家阿诺德·勋伯格因其艺术而遭受痛苦。现代流行艺术家仍保持着这个传统。不要因为流行音乐界的表面浮华而自欺欺人——当今的流行音乐圈万分残酷。

The “pop-cultural scrap heap”, to borrow journalist Drew Magary’s term, is piled high with the dead or broken bodies of young musicians whose personal and musical aspirations collided with the aspirations of those occupying the commercial edifices erected around them, which turn them into income-generating commodities whose role is to satisfy capricious and ever-changing consumer demands.

借用记者Drew Magary的词汇,“流行文化废料堆”已被或死或伤的年轻音乐家堆得高耸入云。这些艺术家的个人愿景和艺术抱负与占据他们周边商业帝国的人的愿望相冲突,后者将他们变成了创收的商品,唯一目的是满足反复无常、任性多变的市场需求。

Many of those musicians end up feeling suffocated, caged and possessed by their minders, exploiters and fans. And many end up dead.

许多音乐家最终发觉他们被自己的保镖、榨利者和粉丝所扼制、禁锢和控制。许多最终一死了之。

How big a problem is the pop music industry, really?

说实在的,流行音乐界的问题究竟有多大?

The rock scene is a volatile mix of glamour, instant wealth, risk-taking, rebellion and psychological distress accompanied by taken-for-granted assumptions that pop musicians will live dangerously, abuse substances and die early. Journalist Amanda Hooten, writing about RobbieWilliams,identifies the components of the “classic rock’n’roll script” as “sex, drugs, rehab and bitterness”.

摇滚圈子是一个不稳定的混合体,融合了魅力、一夜暴富、冒险、反叛和心理焦虑,以及公众对流行音乐家生活方式理所应当的猜测:生活危险、滥用毒品、英年早逝。在记述Robbie Williams时,记者Amanda Hooten把“传统摇滚剧本”的构成要素界定为“性、毒品、戒毒所、无尽痛苦”。

Blogger Jacob Katel expresses the same sentiments in a more forthright manner:

博主Jacob Katel表达了同样的感想,用词更加犀利:

[d]ead rock stars are a dime a dozen. They usually drink themselves to death, overdose on narcotics, crash cars, or get on faulty aircraft with drunk pilots …

死掉的摇滚明星俯拾皆是。他们通常喝到烂醉如泥、过量吸毒、撞车,或者登上醉鬼驾驶(more...)

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Stairway to hell: life and death in the pop music industry 通向地狱的阶梯:流行音乐界的生与死 作者:Dianna Theadora Kenny @2014-10-27 译者:Horace Rae(@sheldon_rae) 校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/stairway-to-hell-life-and-death-in-the-pop-music-industry-32735 [caption id="attachment_6070" align="alignnone" width="300"]Musicians such as Amy Winehouse die young at much higher rates than the rest of the population. EPA/Andy Rain 像Amy Winehouse这样的音乐家英年早逝的几率比其他人大。EPA/Andy Rain Musicians such as Amy Winehouse die young at much higher rates than the rest of the population. EPA/Andy Rain
像Amy Winehouse这样的音乐家英年早逝的几率比其他人大。EPA/Andy Rain[/caption] Art is a cry of distress from those who live out within themselves the destiny of humanity … Inside them turns the movement of the world; only an echo of it leaks out – the work of art Arnold Schoenberg, 1910. “艺术是毕生实践人类命运者的痛苦呐喊……世界在他们的身体里流变;只有一丝回声流露出来——那就是艺术品。”——阿诺德·勋伯格,1910年。 Austrian composer Arnold Schoenberg, like many gifted artists throughout history, suffered for his art. Popular artists of the modern era have kept this tradition alive. For all the superficial glamour of the pop music world, let us not delude ourselves - today’s popular music scene is brutal. 就像历史上许多天赋异禀的艺术家一样,奥地利作曲家阿诺德·勋伯格因其艺术而遭受痛苦。现代流行艺术家仍保持着这个传统。不要因为流行音乐界的表面浮华而自欺欺人——当今的流行音乐圈万分残酷。 The “pop-cultural scrap heap”, to borrow journalist Drew Magary’s term, is piled high with the dead or broken bodies of young musicians whose personal and musical aspirations collided with the aspirations of those occupying the commercial edifices erected around them, which turn them into income-generating commodities whose role is to satisfy capricious and ever-changing consumer demands. 借用记者Drew Magary的词汇,“流行文化废料堆”已被或死或伤的年轻音乐家堆得高耸入云。这些艺术家的个人愿景和艺术抱负与占据他们周边商业帝国的人的愿望相冲突,后者将他们变成了创收的商品,唯一目的是满足反复无常、任性多变的市场需求。 Many of those musicians end up feeling suffocated, caged and possessed by their minders, exploiters and fans. And many end up dead. 许多音乐家最终发觉他们被自己的保镖、榨利者和粉丝所扼制、禁锢和控制。许多最终一死了之。 How big a problem is the pop music industry, really? 说实在的,流行音乐界的问题究竟有多大? The rock scene is a volatile mix of glamour, instant wealth, risk-taking, rebellion and psychological distress accompanied by taken-for-granted assumptions that pop musicians will live dangerously, abuse substances and die early. Journalist Amanda Hooten, writing about RobbieWilliams,identifies the components of the “classic rock’n’roll script” as “sex, drugs, rehab and bitterness”. 摇滚圈子是一个不稳定的混合体,融合了魅力、一夜暴富、冒险、反叛和心理焦虑,以及公众对流行音乐家生活方式理所应当的猜测:生活危险、滥用毒品、英年早逝。在记述Robbie Williams时,记者Amanda Hooten把“传统摇滚剧本”的构成要素界定为“性、毒品、戒毒所、无尽痛苦”。 Blogger Jacob Katel expresses the same sentiments in a more forthright manner: 博主Jacob Katel表达了同样的感想,用词更加犀利: [d]ead rock stars are a dime a dozen. They usually drink themselves to death, overdose on narcotics, crash cars, or get on faulty aircraft with drunk pilots … 死掉的摇滚明星俯拾皆是。他们通常喝到烂醉如泥、过量吸毒、撞车,或者登上醉鬼驾驶的故障飞机…… [caption id="attachment_6066" align="alignnone" width="300"]Gwar frontman Oderus Ungerus died earlier this year. crazybobbles/Flickr Gwar乐队主唱Oderus Ungerus今年早些时候去世。crazybobbles/Flickr Gwar frontman Oderus Ungerus died earlier this year. crazybobbles/Flickr
Gwar乐队主唱Oderus Ungerus今年早些时候去世。crazybobbles/Flickr[/caption] Previous research does not answer the question 过去的研究未能提供答案 Why do so many pop musicians die young? 为什么这么多流行音乐家英年早逝? Few studies have systematically examined the popular musician population to ascertain the extent of the problems codified in the media comments above. 几乎没有研究曾系统地考察过流行音乐家群体来查明上文媒体评论提到的问题有多么严重。 Existing studies are limited in scope. Adrian Barnett, for example, tested the “27 club hypothesis”. Tucker, Faulkner and Horvath only included a narrow sample of the population, that is, musicians who died between 1959 and 1967. A John Moores University study only looked at artists with top rating albums. 现存的研究往往范围有限。举个例子,Adrian Barnett检验了“27俱乐部假说”【译注:指众多才华横溢的流行音乐明星死于27岁这一现象】。Tucker, Faulkner和Horvath的研究只囊括了一个很小的样本——死于1959-1967年之间的音乐家。John Moores大学的一项研究只关注了有热榜专辑的艺术家。 At the other end of the scale, the study reported by Howard Sounes in his book 27 is over-inclusive as it covers not only performing musicians but also songwriters, record producers, managers and promoters. 而在另一个极端,Howard Sounes在其著作《27》中记述的研究则太过广泛:它不仅包括了表演艺术家,也包括了词曲作者、专辑制作人、经纪人和赞助商。 New research 新的研究 [caption id="attachment_6067" align="alignnone" width="195"]Jimi Hendrix, who died in 1970. AAP Photo Jimi Hendrix,死于1970年。 Jimi Hendrix, who died in 1970. AAP Photo
Jimi Hendrix,死于1970年。[/caption] I’ve undertaken the first population study of performing pop musicians (n=12,665) from all popular genres who died between 1950 and June 2014 of whom 90.6% (11,478 musicians) were male. 我已完成了第一个针对参与表演的流行音乐家的群体研究(n=12665),他们来自所有流行音乐流派,死于1950年到2014年6月之间。他们中有90.6%(11478名音乐家)为男性。 Data on age, circumstances and manner of death were accessed from over 200 sources, including The Dead Rock Stars’ Club; Nick Tavelski’s (2010) Knocking on Heaven’s Door: Rock Obituaries, Pop star mortality; R.I.P. Encyclopaedia Metallicum; Voices from the Dark Side for Dead Metal Musicians; Wikipedia’s List of Dead Hip Hop Artists and Hip Hop obituaries; 我从超过200个来源获得关于死亡年龄、原委和方式的数据,其中包括“已逝摇滚明星俱乐部”,Nick Tavelski 2010年的《敲开天堂之门:摇滚明星讣告集》, “金属百科:已逝艺术家”, “来自另一个世界的声音:已逝金属音乐家”,“维基百科已逝嘻哈艺术家列表和嘻哈艺术家讣告”。 I went to rapper death websitesDead Punk Stars and similar sites for all popular music genres. The genres I covered included African, ballad, bluegrass, blues, Cajun, calypso, Christian pop, conjunto, country, doo-wop, electroclash, folk, funk, Gospel, hard rock, hip hop, honky tonk, indie, jazz, Latin, metal, new wave, polka, pop, psychedelic, punk, punk-electronic, rock rap, reggae, rhythm and blues, rock ‘n’ roll, rockabilly, ska, soul, swamp, swing, techno, western and world music. 我访问了说唱歌手死亡网站、朋克明星死亡网站以及所有流行音乐流派的相似网站。我论及的流派有非洲音乐、民谣、蓝草、蓝调、卡津、卡利普索、基督教流行音乐、康芬特、乡村、杜沃普、电音撞击乐、民族乐、福音、硬摇滚、嘻哈音乐、酒吧音乐、独立、爵士乐、拉丁、金属乐、新浪潮、波尔卡、流行乐、迷幻、朋克、电子朋克、说唱摇滚、雷鬼、节奏蓝调、摇滚、山区乡村摇滚、SKA、灵魂、沼泽摇滚、摇摆舞音乐、高科技舞曲、西方音乐和世界音乐。 Longevity, suicide, homicide and accidental death rates in pop musicians 流行音乐家的寿命、自杀率、他杀率和意外死亡率 I examined four outcomes – longevity and the proportion of deaths by suicide, homicide and non-intentional injury or accident. Longevity was determined by calculating the average age of death for each musician by sex and decade of death. These averages were then compared with population averages by sex and decade for the US population (per 100,000) (see Figure 1, below). 我检测了四个结果:寿命、自杀率、他杀率和意外伤害或事故死亡率。寿命按性别、死亡年代分类,取每个音乐家的平均死亡年龄。之后将这些平均值按性别、年代分类与美国人口的平均值比较(每100000人)(见下表1) 3 Figure 2 (below) provides a graphical summary of percentages of musicians who died by decade from each of the three causes of death studied; these are juxtaposed with deaths in the US population from the same causes by decade. All comparisons shown in these figures were highly statistically significantly different from the US population. 表2(下表)按年代图示总结了音乐家们死于上述三种原因的频率。这些频率与美国人口因相同原因死亡的频率并列比较。所有对比都显示,流行音乐家的数值与美国人口数值之间存在统计上非常显著的差异。 4 The pop music scene is toxic and needs rehabilitation 流行音乐圈深受毒害,需要修复 The results of this study are disturbing. Across the seven decades studied, popular musicians’ lifespans were up to 25 years shorter than the comparable US population. Accidental death rates were between five and 10 times greater. Suicide rates were between two and seven times greater; and homicide rates were up to eight times greater than the US population. 这一研究的结果令人忧虑。在7个被研究的年代中,流行音乐家的平均寿命与同时代美国人口相比最多短了25年。流行音乐家的意外死亡率是同时代美国人口的5-10倍;自杀率达2-7倍;他杀率最多达8倍。 This is clear evidence that all is not well in pop music land. 很明显,流行音乐圈情况不妙。 Why is this so? The pop music “scene” fails to provide boundaries and to model and expect acceptable behaviour. It actually does the reverse – it valorises outrageous behaviour and the acting out of aggressive, sexual and destructive impulses that most of us dare only live out in fantasy. 这是为什么呢?流行音乐“圈”没有底线,没有树立典范,也没有要求适度的行为。事实上,它做的事情完全相反:它为粗暴、斗殴、性欲和暴怒抬高价码——我们只敢在幻想中过这种生活。 The music industry needs to consider these findings to discover ways of recognising and assisting young musicians in distress. At the very least, those who make their livings from these young people need to learn to recognise early signs of emotional distress, crisis, depression and suicidality and to put some support systems in place to provide the necessary assistance and care. 音乐界需要思考这些发现,以找到办法来辨识和帮助陷入困境的年轻音乐家。至少,那些依靠这些年轻人为生的人需要学会辨识精神痛苦的早期征兆、恶化期、抑郁和自杀倾向,然后建立支持体系以提供必要的帮助和关爱。 (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]教师培训开支都打了水漂

Study: Billions of dollars in annual teacher training is largely a waste
研究:每年数十亿美元的教师培训支出基本都浪费了

作者:Lyndsey Layton @ 2015-8-4
译者:陈小乖(@lion_kittyyyyy)     校对:慕白(@李凤阳他说)
来源:The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/study-billions-of-dollars-in-annual-teacher-training-is-largely-a-waste/2015/08/03/c4e1f322-39ff-11e5-9c2d-ed991d848c48_story.html

A new study of 10,000 teachers found that professional development — the teacher workshops and training that cost taxpayers billions of dollars each year — is largely a waste.

一项涉及10,000名教师的新研究发现,每年花费纳税人数十亿美元的教师小组讨论和培训职业发展项目是一笔巨大的浪费。

The study released Tuesday by TNTP, a nonprofit organization, found no evidence that any particular approach or amount of professional development consistently helps teachers (more...)

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Study: Billions of dollars in annual teacher training is largely a waste 研究:每年数十亿美元的教师培训支出基本都浪费了 作者:Lyndsey Layton @ 2015-8-4 译者:陈小乖(@lion_kittyyyyy)     校对:慕白(@李凤阳他说) 来源:The Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/study-billions-of-dollars-in-annual-teacher-training-is-largely-a-waste/2015/08/03/c4e1f322-39ff-11e5-9c2d-ed991d848c48_story.html A new study of 10,000 teachers found that professional development — the teacher workshops and training that cost taxpayers billions of dollars each year — is largely a waste. 一项涉及10,000名教师的新研究发现,每年花费纳税人数十亿美元的教师小组讨论和培训职业发展项目是一笔巨大的浪费。 The study released Tuesday by TNTP, a nonprofit organization, found no evidence that any particular approach or amount of professional development consistently helps teachers improve in the classroom. 非营利组织TNTP周二发布的研究发现,没有证据表明特定的方法或一定时间的职业发展培训能稳步提高教师在课堂上的表现。 “We are bombarding teachers with a lot of help, but the truth is, it’s not helping all that much,” said Dan Weisberg, TNTP’s chief executive. “We are not approaching this in a very smart way. We’re basically throwing a lot of things against the wall and not even looking to see whether it works.” “我们用大量的培训对教师进行轰炸,可事实是,这并没有多大作用”,TNTP首席执行官Dan Weisberg说,“我们没能用一种很聪明的办法来解决当前的问题。我们只是盲目地尝试各种方法,甚至没去在意这是否有效。” [Read TNTP’s study]阅读TNTP的研究】 Researchers examined three large school districts as well as one network of charter schools. They looked at professional development programs at all the schools and teacher performance data over several years, and they surveyed 10,000 teachers and interviewed more than 100 administrators. They identified teachers who improved their job performance and tried to figure out what experiences they had that differed from teachers who were stagnant. To determine if a teacher had improved, researchers analyzed multiple measures — evaluation ratings, classroom observation and student test scores. 研究者对三个大的学区以及一个特许学校系统做了研究。他们分析了所有学校职业发展项目以及教师表现的多年数据,对10,000名教师进行了问卷调查,采访了超过100位管理者。他们找出了那些在工作表现上取得进步的教师,并试图找出他们的经历与那些在职业道路上停滞不前的教师有什么不同。研究者采用了多种衡量指标来判定一名教师是否取得进步,包括评估得分、课堂观察和学生的考试成绩。 And they didn’t find many answers. 他们并没有找到太多答案。 “When it comes to teaching, real improvement is a lot harder to achieve — and we know much less about how to make it happen — than most of us would like to admit,” Weisberg said. Weisberg表示:“对教学来说,取得真正改进的难度比我们多数人愿意承认的要大得多,而且我们对如何才能取得改进知之甚少。” The school districts that participated in the study spent an average of $18,000 per teacher annually on professional development. Based on that figure, TNTP estimates that the 50 largest school districts spend an estimated $8 billion on teacher development annually. That is far larger than previous estimates. 参与这项研究的学区在教师职业发展上的平均投入为每名教师每年18,000美元。以此为基础,TNTP估计50个最大的学区每年在教师发展培训上的花费为80亿美元。这远远超过之前的估计。 And teachers spend a good deal of time in training, the study found. The 10,000 teachers surveyed were in training an average of 19 school days a year, or almost 10 percent of a typical school year, according to TNTP. 研究还发现教师们在培训上花费了大量的时间。据TNTP,在10,000名受调查的教师中,平均培训时间为每年19个教学日,或者说,几乎是一个正常学年的10%。 “The bottom line is, they’re spending a lot of money on this and it’s such an appealing idea — take your existing teachers and just make them better and everybody is better off,” said Eric Hanushek, an economist at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. “But this report finds that, on average, it doesn’t do much.” “关键是,他们在这上面花了大量的金钱,而且它是如此具有吸引力的一个想法——让你现有的教师变得更好,同时所有人都会有所获益”,斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的经济学家Eric Hanushek说,“但这份报告显示,平均而言,它并没起多大作用。” The findings echo two recent federally funded studies, which concluded that current approaches to teacher training have no significant effect on performance. 这些结果呼应了最近联邦政府资助的两项研究,研究结果也显示,目前的培训方法对教师的表现没有明显作用。 “At the federal level, we spend $2.5 billion a year on professional development,” Education Secretary Arne Duncan said at a teachers town hall meeting in 2012. “As I go out [and] talk to great teachers around the country, when I ask them how much is that money improving their job or development, they either laugh or they cry. They are not feeling it.” 教育部长Arne Duncan在2012年的一个市政教师会议上说:“在联邦政府层面,我们每年花费250亿美元在职业发展项目上,当我下基层与全国的优秀教师们谈话的时候,我问他们这些钱让他们的职业技能提升了多少或者他们自身得到了多大的发展时,他们不是一笑了之就是泪花盈盈。他们根本感觉不到这些钱。” School districts have failed to adequately scrutinize the quality of their training programs, Hanushek said. Hanushek表示,学区不能恰当地审视他们的培训项目的质量。 “School districts just have to take it more seriously,” he said. “They have to manage the use of professional development, evaluate its usefulness and dump the bad stuff. Which is a common problem in schools. They add something, and if it’s not working, they add something on top of that. They’re good at adding, not as good at taking away.” 他说:“各个学区只是需要更认真地对待培训项目。他们需要管理好对职业发展项目的使用,评估其用处,去掉没用的。所有学校都有一个通病。他们喜欢垒积木,如果没有效果,那就再往上加一块新的。他们善于做加法,却不善于做减法。” In the TNTP study, about one-third of teachers — 3 out of 10 — improved over a two-to-three-year period after participating in training while 20 percent got worse, as measured by teacher evaluations. 在TNTP的研究中,教师评估显示,大约有三分之一的教师(十分之三)在参加培训后的2-3年内有所提升,然而与此同时,有20%的教师表现变差了。 The study also found that school districts are not helping teachers understand their weaknesses. Fewer than half of the teachers surveyed agreed that they had weaknesses in the classroom while more than 60 percent of teachers who earned low performance ratings gave themselves high grades. 研究还发现,各学区没有帮助教师们认识到自己的缺点。调查中,只有少于一半的教师承认他们在教学中存在弱点。在获得差评的教师中,超过60%给出了较高的自我评定。 “There is no doubt that there are initiatives that are probably producing positive impacts,” Weisberg said. “But it’s not helpful if you don’t know what they are. It is really important for school systems to begin to set goals and measure impacts against those goals. If we do that, we’re going to be so much smarter than we are now.” “毫无疑问,能够产生积极作用的举措是存在的”,Weisberg说,“但如果你不知道到底是哪些举措,那就没什么用。对学校系统来说,至关重要的是,要开始设定目标并根据这些目标衡量所产生的影响。如果我们实行这些举措,那么我们将会变得比现在聪明得多。” (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]流派如何影响音乐家寿命

Music to die for: how genre affects popular musicians’ life expectancy
向乐而死:流派如何影响流行音乐家的预期寿命

作者:Dianna Theadora Kenny @ 2015-03-23
译者:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值)     校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
源:The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/music-to-die-for-how-genre-affects-popular-musicians-life-expectancy-36660

相较于性别或年龄,音乐流派与不同类别的致死原因联系更为紧密。供图:Surian Soosay, CC BY-SA

相较于性别或年龄,音乐流派与不同类别的致死原因联系更为紧密。供图:Surian Soosay, CC BY-SA

Do all popular musicians live hard and fast, take risks and die young?

是否所有的流行音乐家都发奋求存,飞逝人生,率性冒险,英年早逝?

This article is the third in a series examining mortality in popular musicians.

此文为流行音乐家死亡调查系列之三。

To recap, the first article examined longevity, suicide, murder and accidental death rates in pop musicians compared with population data from the US. As expected, longevity was significantly reduced in pop musicians, who also had higher rates of suicide, homicide and accidental death.

概述前作,系列中的第一篇调查了流行音乐家的寿命、自杀率、他杀率和意外死亡率并与美国人口的平均数据相比较。不出所料,流行音乐家的寿命大大低于全美人均寿命,并有着更高的自杀率、他杀率和意外死亡率。

The second article explored the “myth” of the so-called 27 club, explaining how this idea emerged and why it has taken root in the public imagination.

系列之二则探究了所谓的27岁俱乐部的传说,解释了这个概念是如何形成的,以及为何它得以扎根于公众的想象中。

In this article, I’d like to look at whether membership of different music genres is associated with different risks of early death and different causes of death.

在此文中,我会看看,音乐家所属流派的不同,是否与不同的早逝风险以及不同的死因相关联。

The chart below plots genres over time (oldest to youngest genres), showing the average age of death of popular musicians by genre and gender against life expectancy (LE) for US males and females born in the same year.

下图将音乐流派依时序排列(从最早的类型到最新的),显示了不同流派不同性别的流行音乐家的平均死亡年龄,以及同年出生的美国男性和女性的寿命预期。

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Music to die for: how genre affects popular musicians' life expectancy 向乐而死:流派如何影响流行音乐家的预期寿命 作者:Dianna Theadora Kenny @ 2015-03-23 译者:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值)     校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)源:The Conversation, https://theconversation.com/music-to-die-for-how-genre-affects-popular-musicians-life-expectancy-36660 [caption id="attachment_6058" align="alignnone" width="300"]相较于性别或年龄,音乐流派与不同类别的致死原因联系更为紧密。供图:Surian Soosay, CC BY-SA 相较于性别或年龄,音乐流派与不同类别的致死原因联系更为紧密。供图:Surian Soosay, CC BY-SA[/caption] Do all popular musicians live hard and fast, take risks and die young? 是否所有的流行音乐家都发奋求存,飞逝人生,率性冒险,英年早逝? This article is the third in a series examining mortality in popular musicians. 此文为流行音乐家死亡调查系列之三。 To recap, the first article examined longevity, suicide, murder and accidental death rates in pop musicians compared with population data from the US. As expected, longevity was significantly reduced in pop musicians, who also had higher rates of suicide, homicide and accidental death. 概述前作,系列中的第一篇调查了流行音乐家的寿命、自杀率、他杀率和意外死亡率并与美国人口的平均数据相比较。不出所料,流行音乐家的寿命大大低于全美人均寿命,并有着更高的自杀率、他杀率和意外死亡率。 The second article explored the “myth” of the so-called 27 club, explaining how this idea emerged and why it has taken root in the public imagination. 系列之二则探究了所谓的27岁俱乐部的传说,解释了这个概念是如何形成的,以及为何它得以扎根于公众的想象中。 In this article, I’d like to look at whether membership of different music genres is associated with different risks of early death and different causes of death. 在此文中,我会看看,音乐家所属流派的不同,是否与不同的早逝风险以及不同的死因相关联。 The chart below plots genres over time (oldest to youngest genres), showing the average age of death of popular musicians by genre and gender against life expectancy (LE) for US males and females born in the same year. 下图将音乐流派依时序排列(从最早的类型到最新的),显示了不同流派不同性别的流行音乐家的平均死亡年龄,以及同年出生的美国男性和女性的寿命预期。 1 Musicians from the older genres – blues, jazz (including bebop and dixieland), country (including country and western, boogie woogie, honky tonk and bluegrass), and gospel (including spiritual and Christian rock) – enjoyed, on average, similar lifespans as those from the US population with the same year of birth and gender. 那些属于较早期的音乐流派——蓝调、爵士(包括比波普和迪克西兰)、乡村乐(包括西部乡村、布吉乌吉、酒吧音乐和蓝草)以及福音音乐(包括圣歌和基督教摇滚)——的乐手平均拥有和同年出生、同样性别的美国大众相似的寿命。 The next group – R&B (including doo wop and soul), pop, folk (including ballad and polka) and world music – had lower life expectancies compared with the US population. 下一个群体——属于R&B(包括杜沃普和灵魂)、流行乐、民乐(包括民谣和波尔卡)和世界音乐的音乐家——与美国民众相比则寿命预期较低。 Thereafter, the gap between population lifespans and average age of death for the more recent genres – rock (including rockabilly), electronic (including experimental, techno, disco, and funk), punk, metal, rap and hip hop – widens. 此后,那些属于更新近的音乐流派——摇滚(包括山区乡村摇滚)、电子乐(包括实验乐、高科技舞曲、迪斯科和疯克)、朋克、金属、说唱和嘻哈——的音乐家们,与美国民众相比,在寿命和平均死亡年龄上的差距进一步加大。 This pattern reflects, to some extent, a confound in the data: musicians who are dying youngest belong to newer genres (electronic, punk, metal,rap,hip-hop) that have not existed as long as genres such as jazz, country, gospel and blues. Consequently, they have not had the same opportunity to live a full lifespan. 这种规律在一定程度上反映了一个数据上的偏差:那些死亡年龄最小的音乐家属于较新的音乐流派(电子、朋克、金属、说唱、喜欢)。这些流派与诸如爵士、乡村、福音音乐和蓝调等相比,存在时间较短。结果是,这些死去的音乐家们尚还没有获得同样的机会活到人均寿命。 However, this is not the whole answer. 然而,这不是全部的答案。 The main causes of death for musicians from different genres 不同流派音家的主要死因 The table below shows that musicians from different genres have different rates of death from different causes of death. 下表显示,不同流派音乐家死于不同死因的比例并不相同。 2 For male musicians across all genres, accidental death (including all vehicular incidents and accidental overdose) accounted for almost 20% of all deaths. But accidental death for rock musicians was higher than this (24.4%) and for metal musicians higher still (36.2%). 对各种音乐流派的男性音乐家整体来说,意外死亡(包括所有的交通意外和意外吸毒过量)占全部死亡的大约20%。但摇滚乐手的意外死亡率则高于此数字(为24.4%),而金属乐手则更高(为36.2%)。 Suicide accounted for almost 7% of all deaths in the total sample. However, for punk musicians, suicide accounted for 11% of deaths; for metal musicians, a staggering 19.3%. At just 0.9%, gospel musicians had the lowest suicide rate of all the genres studied. 自杀占了样本中全部死因的7%。但是,对于朋克乐手,自杀占死因的11%;对于金属乐手,比率达到令人震惊的19.3%。而福音音乐家则是调查的各种流派中自杀率最低的,仅仅为0.9%。 Murder accounted for 6.0% of deaths across the sample, but was the cause of 51% of deaths in rap musicians and 51.5% of deaths for hip hop musicians, to date. This could be due to these genres’ strong associations with drug-related crime and gang culture. 谋杀占了所有样本中死因的6.0%,但到目前为止却占了说唱音乐家死因的51%,占嘻哈音乐家死因的51.5%。这可能是因为这些音乐流派与毒品相关犯罪和帮派文化有着强烈联系。 Heart–related fatalities accounted for 17.4% of all deaths across all genres, while 28% of blues musicians died of heart-related causes. Similarly, the average percentage of deaths accounted for by cancer was 23.4%. Older genres such as folk (32.3%) and jazz (30.6%) had higher rates of fatal cancers than other genres. 与心脏相关的死因占所有音乐家死因的17.4%,而28%的蓝调音乐家死于心脏病相关的原因。相似的,癌症占各类死因的23.4%。与其它类型相比,早一些的音乐流派如民谣和爵士音乐家们死于癌症的比率更高,分别为32.3%与30.6%。 In the case of the newer genres, it’s worth pointing out that members of these genres have not yet lived long enough to fall into the highest-risk ages for heart- and liver-related illnesses. Consequently, they had the lowest rates of death in these categories. 值得一提的是,属于较新流派的音乐家们还未能活到心脏病和肝脏相关疾病风险最高的年纪。相应的,他们死于这类死因的比率也最低。 So, what can we conclude about musicians and music genre membership? 那么,对音乐家和所属音流派我能得出什么结论呢? This study highlights the different mortality profiles of musicians belonging to different genres of popular music, and cautions against treating the population of popular musicians as homogeneous. 这项研究突出了属于不同流行乐流派的音乐家们的死亡率分布的不同,并对统一对待各种流行音乐家的做法提出警告。 Music genre was associated with distinct causes of mortality, more so than gender or age (not presented here). This suggests that once someone is inducted into the popular music industry, effects of sex and age on mortality may be masked by genre “membership” and its accompanying lifestyle. 音乐流派与不同死因的相关性要超过性别或年龄与不同死因(未在此文中显示)的相关性。这说明某人一旦进入流行乐行业,性别与年龄对死亡率所起的作用可能被所属流派以及相应的生活方式所掩盖。 Importantly, because this was a quantitative study of dead musicians and our aim was to gather population data to identify occupational hazards in the pop music world, I can only speculate here about the underlying causes of these patterns in mortality. 重要的是,因为这是一项对已经死去的音乐家们的量化研究,且我们的目标是通过搜集人口数据来对流行乐界中的职业危害进行识别,我只能在这里对造成死亡率分布规律的潜在原因进行猜测。 [caption id="attachment_6057" align="alignnone" width="300"]“性手枪”乐队的Sid Vicious,摄于1978年。次年,Vicious因服食过量海洛因死亡,年仅21岁。海洛因是他母亲弄到手的。Chicago Art Department/ Wikimedia Commons “性手枪”乐队的Sid Vicious,摄于1978年。次年,Vicious因服食过量海洛因死亡,年仅21岁。海洛因是他母亲弄到手的。Chicago Art Department/ Wikimedia Commons[/caption] These figures likely represent a combination of factors inherent in the popular music industry (such as the ubiquitous presence of alcohol and other substances of addiction, irregular hours, touring, high levels of stress, performance anxiety) and the vulnerability that many young musicians bring with them into their profession from adverse childhood experiences. Add to this the subcultural values and philosophies in distinct music genres with which young musicians become imbued, and you have a complex, multi-faceted picture of musician mortality. 这些数字有可能代表了流行乐产业中的固有因素(比如酒精和其它致瘾物质的普遍使用、不规律的作息时间、巡回演出、高度压力、演出焦虑)与很多年轻音乐家从不幸的童年经历带入职业的脆弱性的结合。雪上加霜的还有年轻乐手们被灌输的亚文化价值观和特定音乐流派中的不同哲学。于是,你就有了一个关于音乐家之死的复杂而多面的画面。 Other studies have reported similar significantly-reduced life expectancy in popular musicians from the newer genres compared with matched general populations. Mortality rates were between two and three times higher for popular musicians than matched population data. The median ages of popular musician death in the two Bellis studies (links above) were 41.78 and 45.2 years respectively, which closely aligned with my findings. 其它研究也已提到与此文相似的现象,较新流派的流行音乐家与相应大众相比,预期寿命显著减短。与相应大众的数据相比,流行音乐家们的死亡率要高出2至3倍。在Bellis的两项研究(见上面的链接)中,流行乐手的死亡年龄中位数分别为41.78岁和45.2岁,这与我的调查结果相吻合。 Many musicians from younger genres – rock, electronic, punk, metal, rap, and hip hop – appear unlikely to live long enough to acquire the illnesses of middle and old age. 许多属于较新音乐流派——摇滚、电子乐、朋克、金属、说唱、嘻哈——的音乐家似乎不太可能活到可以得中年病和老年病的年纪。 Subsequent research decades hence, when the newer genres have matured sufficiently to potentially contain members with ages spanning population life expectancies, may confirm the findings and tentative conclusions drawn from this series of studies. 在未来的数个十年研究期里,当较新音乐流派足够成熟,已潜在地包含有年龄达到人均预期寿命的乐手时,也许此系列研究的各种发现和初步结论能得到确认。 (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

道德直觉与反思平衡

【2015-09-29】

@whigzhou: 《醉奸奇闻引出的伦理思考

@whigzhou: 第3第4点其实可以转变成这样一个更一般的问题:法律是否应该允许一个人在有行为能力的状态下做出一个让自己暂时丧失行为能力的决定,并对此决定负责?假如答案是否定的,那么,若一对情侣决定喝个烂醉并大干一场,其中那位男性是否会被认定为强奸呢?特别是假如他酒量足够好而没醉呢?

@正能量满满的哦也:假设您身处美国某州(该州卖淫违法)(您认可法律生成的路径的合法性于是认同法律的权威性),当您发现有一处卖淫窝点时,您会报警吗?即在您认可的共同体里生活时,当共同体规则与自己的价值观不一致时,是遵从共同体规则还是自己价值观?(假设暂时不能逃离共同体)

@whigzhou: 不(more...)

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【2015-09-29】 @whigzhou: 《醉奸奇闻引出的伦理思考》 @whigzhou: 第3第4点其实可以转变成这样一个更一般的问题:法律是否应该允许一个人在有行为能力的状态下做出一个让自己暂时丧失行为能力的决定,并对此决定负责?假如答案是否定的,那么,若一对情侣决定喝个烂醉并大干一场,其中那位男性是否会被认定为强奸呢?特别是假如他酒量足够好而没醉呢? @正能量满满的哦也:假设您身处美国某州(该州卖淫违法)(您认可法律生成的路径的合法性于是认同法律的权威性),当您发现有一处卖淫窝点时,您会报警吗?即在您认可的共同体里生活时,当共同体规则与自己的价值观不一致时,是遵从共同体规则还是自己价值观?(假设暂时不能逃离共同体) @whigzhou: 不会报警 @whigzhou: 当共同体的法律和我价值观相悖时,我会服从,但不会去积极维护,更不会帮助执行。 @渴望自由地呼吸: 现场你会用直觉判断指导行为,没时间做这个理性分析 @whigzhou: 对,但这不能否认分析的价值,因为分析可以影响(分析者自己或其听众的)下一次直觉判断,假如这一分析影响了判决,那么每次判决都或多或少会影响后人的直觉判断 @正能量满满的哦也:请教下,如果那个妈妈在饭桌上的表现让您觉得她理性不足(但让她理性不足的责任链并不全部并坚定地指向她(比如说开吃前不小心头撞桌子后(同桌的您判断为神智似乎不太清了),这时您的讨论会做怎么样的改变吗?还有,一般伦理讨论,你觉得责任链只应该追究得比较近吗? @whigzhou: 问题好像不在链条长短 @whigzhou: 关键是不理性的程度是否达到丧失行为能力的程度,若不到这程度,我们总是假定她是能够对自己行为负责的,至于这个程度的划定,现有司法程序自有办法 @正能量满满的哦也:伦理情境中,我觉得自身的伦理判断标准是一个标准(只和价值观等有关),来自司法的标准是另一个不太相干的标准……您意思是,在您认同的伦理判断的标准里,关于理性与否的判断标准,您将很大部分参考司法(演化而来)的判断标准? @whigzhou: 大致是,但不尽然 @whigzhou: 前提是我大致认可这套司法体系作为所在共同体社会契约的一部分,在此前提下,我的伦理判断和法律判断有所不同,但原则相仿 @whigzhou: 比如在行为能力这个问题上,在法律语境下,我会认可某种司法规则的认定结果(比如医学证据或陪审团裁定),在伦理语境下,我依据自己的直觉判断,但在我看来,普通法的有关原则和直觉的判别原则类似,只是前者客观性更好,假如相关司法规则远远偏离常识直觉,恐怕得不到我认可 @whigzhou: 假如一套司法系统系统性的偏离我的伦理原则,甚至和它没多大关系,那怎么会被我认可呢?在我眼里无疑是恶法啊,此时,我就不会自视为该系统下共同体之一员,就是个反社会分子了(当然可能是忍气吞声的那种) @匈牙利海军上将皮卡丘: 辉总说的有趣,但大多时候菜刀破门团拔刀就上都是最好的方法,这基于如下考量:如果原因只是酒醉,那么属于为自己积德;如果是因为该圈子作风放荡,那么能刺激局外人与之划清界限的决心。临事时瞻前顾后太多反倒容易磨损道德直觉。 @whigzhou: 我说了这不是对临场反应的预测啊 @whigzhou: 更不是建议各位临场时都做这么一番分析之后再行动,事后分析的用处在于:1)帮助我们对在场者的反应做道德判断,2)通过反思平衡修正直觉,影响下一次的反应 @whigzhou: 此例中,分析至少可以帮助我判断:在何种条件下,我有理由指责在场者卑劣或者怯懦?以及程度如何 @正能量满满的哦也:您这里说的(常识)直觉,指的是经过了您反思平衡后得到的伦理准则与直觉反复地反思平衡修正得到的“直觉”,不是人们的简单应激下的直觉吧? @whigzhou: 对,是反思平衡后的直觉,但同时也是快速的,两者不对立,之前的反思平衡影响后续的快速反应 @whigzhou: 依我看没有什么直觉(或曰临场快速反应模式)是不能经由学习和理性思考而修正的,比如围棋大师对局面的直觉,数学家对解题路径的直觉,我是没有的,我对经济学问题的直觉,相信很多人也没有
醉奸奇闻引出的伦理思考

故事(来自微博@吴十六):

成天在看法律与秩序SUV,昨天饭桌上听到一个真事:某校某班家长委员会聚餐,一位漂亮妈妈被灌至大醉,另一男家长尾随她进了洗手间,老师和其他家长其实都听到了动静,但是没人冲进去,代之以在厕所外敲门。颇久后男方才衣衫不整地出现。事后当然没人报警。有人说,报警又怎样,那男的会说女方勾引他

于是我想了一下,假如我当时在场,会怎么做。当然,这不是对我的临场反应的真正预测,因为我没有机会体验临场感觉,所以只能是一种在从容条件下仔细斟酌的结果。

1)关于究竟发生了什么,存在两种解读:A)强奸;B)两厢情愿的放纵游戏;

2)支持第二种解读的一个证据是:没有出现呼救声;

3)对此,一种反驳是:深度醉酒让女甲丧失了行为能力,因而不能认为是两厢情愿(more...)

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6050
故事(来自微博@吴十六):
成天在看法律与秩序SUV,昨天饭桌上听到一个真事:某校某班家长委员会聚餐,一位漂亮妈妈被灌至大醉,另一男家长尾随她进了洗手间,老师和其他家长其实都听到了动静,但是没人冲进去,代之以在厕所外敲门。颇久后男方才衣衫不整地出现。事后当然没人报警。有人说,报警又怎样,那男的会说女方勾引他
于是我想了一下,假如我当时在场,会怎么做。当然,这不是对我的临场反应的真正预测,因为我没有机会体验临场感觉,所以只能是一种在从容条件下仔细斟酌的结果。 1)关于究竟发生了什么,存在两种解读:A)强奸;B)两厢情愿的放纵游戏; 2)支持第二种解读的一个证据是:没有出现呼救声; 3)对此,一种反驳是:深度醉酒让女甲丧失了行为能力,因而不能认为是两厢情愿的; 4)但仍然存在这样的可能性:女甲在醉酒之前便已经决定“让自己喝个痛快,并期待着发生点什么刺激的事情”,此时,她是完全清醒的,因而是充分自由的; 5)从原帖描述,我不能排除第二种可能,当然也不排除第一种; 6)假如我断定是强奸,就有道德义务踹门,若实际上未能这么做,我会承认自己怯懦了; 7)但假如我不能这么断定,该怎么做就要区分几种情况; 8)假如我是聚会发起/组织者之一,或场地推荐者,就无论如何都该出手,因为此时我的责任更强,出手干预的最低条件从对强奸的“断定”降低到了“担心”; 9)或者,假如女甲是受我邀请或可能因为事先知道有我同往才来参加聚会的,同样必须出手,理由同上; 好,我已经把几个容易处理的条件分支解决了,再看余下分支: 10)假如我认为发生的是后一种情况,并且不符合(8)(9)的条件,那么,问题就转变成:我是否容忍这种事情在我参与的聚会上发生?假如不容忍,该怎么办?退出还是干预?在反复考虑之后,我发现,要回答这问题,还要对条件做更细致的区分; 11)此时我首先要回答:X)我是否正置身于一个普遍容忍这种事情甚至乐在其中的圈子里?以及:Y)我自己是否已经或愿意进入这个圈子? 12)假如X和Y都是肯定的,那我当然不会觉得有出手的需要; 13)假如X是肯定的,Y是否定的,那么问题就变成:当我在不知情的情况下被邀请参加这样一个与我价值观格格不入的聚会,因而感到被冒犯时,该如何对待,是退出并忍受被冒犯的结果?还是出手阻止以捍卫自己不受此等冒犯的权利? 14)考虑之后我发现,还得回答先另一个问题:Z)聚会组织者在邀请我参加之前,是否有理由相信我应该会了解这是一个这样的圈子? 15)假如Z是肯定的,那我就没理由出手,只能哀叹自己太跟不上时代了; 16)假如Z是否定的,那我觉得自己可以出手,但这不是道德义务,选择退出也不会让我感到自己太怯懦; 17)假如X和Y都是否定的,那我就有理由出手,而且负有一些道德义务,尽管不如(6)(8)(9)那么强,因为作为与X圈子相对立的价值阵营的一员,我有义务和我的同道一起捍卫我们的公共生活不被前者所侵犯(这事情若是发生在他们圈子里面,我们当然没必要干预); 18)出手干预的义务,还得到了如下考虑的强化:容忍此类行为存在于我们的公共生活中,将削弱我们阻止真正强奸的能力,因为事件的真实性质在发生之际很难辨明,我们不得不对疑似强奸的行为一律加以阻止,才能有效保护免受强奸的权利;这就好比,我们也不能容忍两个人在大街上玩追杀游戏,即便他们是完全自愿的,因为旁人很难将其与真正的追杀区分开来,若要加以容忍,就只能放弃协助自卫的权利,而后者对我们太重要了,不能放弃。 酱紫。  
[译文]我们时代的和平?

Peace for Our Time?
我们这个时代的和平?

作者:Azar Gat @ 2012-09-20 发表于奥斯陆
译者:@Ghostmarine     校对:林翠、@Drunkplane-zny
来源:Peace Research Institute Oslo, https://www.prio.org/Peace-Address/download/PAPA%20Programme%202012.pdf

这次活动组织者建议,用“我们这个时代的和平?”——问号——这样一个多少有些古怪的问句为题进行演讲,我欣然同意。

你们都知道,1938年9月慕尼黑会议,与希特勒达成和平解决捷克斯洛伐克冲突的共识后,手握和平协议志得意满的张伯伦,向迎接他凯旋的人们所作的,正是这句承诺。然而,不到半年时间,希特勒的军队占领了捷克斯洛伐克全境,一年不到,欧洲,继而全世界,沦入另一场世界大战之中,五千五百万人丧生。

张伯伦,连同他那把标志性的雨伞,成了一个永恒的小丑形象。而张伯伦的和平预言,就像其他类似断语一样——比如说一战是一场“终结所有战争的战争”,讲冷战之后建立起一个“新世界秩序”——足以引作对任何宣称战争业已消亡高论的警示。此类宣言总是难免失于幼稚,正如马克·吐温妙评报道自己死亡的新闻【编注:这句妙评是:“有关我死亡的报道过于夸张了。”】。

因此,我不会试图预言未来,未来是开放的,是遍布种种可能性的疆域。相反,我将聚焦历史趋势,通过或远或近的历史,告诉大家战争的确正在减少,和平与日俱增。我会力图阐释其中的原因,并且说明,是什么滋生了张伯伦以及上述其他人的宣言,而在现代社会之前,掌握实际权柄的政治家可不会像先知或者道德家一样信誓旦旦地下各种断语。毕竟,张伯伦之流并非完全被形势所误导。

过去十几二十年里,一些学者提出这样的观点,认为纵观整个历史,战争分阶段减少,例如最近斯蒂芬·平(more...)

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Peace for Our Time? 我们这个时代的和平? 作者:Azar Gat @ 2012-09-20 发表于奥斯陆 译者:@Ghostmarine     校对:林翠、@Drunkplane-zny 来源:Peace Research Institute Oslo, https://www.prio.org/Peace-Address/download/PAPA%20Programme%202012.pdf 这次活动组织者建议,用“我们这个时代的和平?”——问号——这样一个多少有些古怪的问句为题进行演讲,我欣然同意。 你们都知道,1938年9月慕尼黑会议,与希特勒达成和平解决捷克斯洛伐克冲突的共识后,手握和平协议志得意满的张伯伦,向迎接他凯旋的人们所作的,正是这句承诺。然而,不到半年时间,希特勒的军队占领了捷克斯洛伐克全境,一年不到,欧洲,继而全世界,沦入另一场世界大战之中,五千五百万人丧生。 张伯伦,连同他那把标志性的雨伞,成了一个永恒的小丑形象。而张伯伦的和平预言,就像其他类似断语一样——比如说一战是一场“终结所有战争的战争”,讲冷战之后建立起一个“新世界秩序”——足以引作对任何宣称战争业已消亡高论的警示。此类宣言总是难免失于幼稚,正如马克·吐温妙评报道自己死亡的新闻【编注:这句妙评是:“有关我死亡的报道过于夸张了。”】。 因此,我不会试图预言未来,未来是开放的,是遍布种种可能性的疆域。相反,我将聚焦历史趋势,通过或远或近的历史,告诉大家战争的确正在减少,和平与日俱增。我会力图阐释其中的原因,并且说明,是什么滋生了张伯伦以及上述其他人的宣言,而在现代社会之前,掌握实际权柄的政治家可不会像先知或者道德家一样信誓旦旦地下各种断语。毕竟,张伯伦之流并非完全被形势所误导。 过去十几二十年里,一些学者提出这样的观点,认为纵观整个历史,战争分阶段减少,例如最近斯蒂芬·平克(Steven Pinker)在畅销书《人性中更好的天使》(The Better Angels of Our Nature)中的论述。人类战争第一次大幅减少,是因为大约五千年前,利维坦国家崛起于当时世界最先进的一些地区。 就拿挪威来说,这是世界上最晚近才被开发的地区,现在看来与北欧和西欧其他地方没什么两样,可挪威的战争减少现象仅仅从一千年前才开始——当然,虽然你们挪威人有着黑暗的历史,但从那往后做得还不错。 针对此课题的几项综合研究,的的确确从人类学和考古学层面,证明霍布斯对无政府自然状态的描述基本正确。而卢梭主义者的想象,即和平的原始人因为学会了农业,划分私产,建立国家,由此遭到腐蚀,这种在二十世纪中期人类学和流行文化中占主流的观点,已经被证实是无凭无据的。 卢梭主义者的观点基于这样一种假设,认定人烟稀少就不大可能有太多战争好打。然而,现存的狩猎采集社会证明实际情况恰恰相反。澳洲是狩猎采集社会最佳实验室,1788年欧洲人抵达之前,那片辽阔大陆曾经遍布狩猎采集者的身影,一直未被农民、牧民,或者国家之类的概念“污染”。有证据显示,澳大利亚部族之间战争频繁。 即便在人口密度低至每35平方英里一人的中澳沙漠(Central  Australian  Desert),冲突和致命战斗也是家常便饭。很多战争的焦点是水源,后者对该地区的人生死攸关。澳洲土著手提之盾可不是用来狩猎袋鼠的。绝大部分其他地区,狩猎领地被垄断,受到狩猎采集者凶猛的保护,因为区域资源很容易就会被耗尽。 二十世纪六十年代,以和平著称的卡拉哈里布希曼人(Kalahari Bushmen)是卢梭主义者的研究焦点。然而,真相很快水落石出,在国家权力介入之前,该族的暴力死亡率四倍于1990年的美国,而那时美国的这项数据就已经是全球发达国家中最高且遥遥领先的了。 对加拿大北极圈内的因纽特人来说,人口稀少到不知道什么叫资源竞争,可即使这样,绑架女性的战斗也异常普遍,暴力死亡率十倍于1990年的美国。新几内亚高地和亚马逊流域为我们提供了一个初级农业社会的大型缩微世界,两个地区都包含数以百计的部落,以及数以百计的语种,这些社会确实都揭示了类似情况:永不停息的战争和非常高的暴力死亡率。 进一步来说,人类的自然状态和生物界的一般自然状态没什么区别。二十世纪六十年代的普遍看法是,同一个物种的动物不会自相残杀,这就让人类成为一种凶残的例外,并且滋生了这样的猜想:战争完全伴随文明的出现而产生。可是,从那时起,人们发现物种内部的动物之间存在大量的相互杀戮现象,现在每个坐在电视机前看自然纪录片的观众都能对此耳熟能详。也就是说,就这方面而言,人类的行为也不足为奇。 根据几十个前国家社会的数据,前国家社会平均暴力死亡率高达总人口的15%,男性人口的25%,活着的男人统统伤痕累累,而历史上国家社会平均暴力死亡率在1%至5%之间。下降幅度如此之大,主要是由于利维坦国家强制推行的内部和平所致。霍布斯认为,无政府状态是引发暴力死亡的最重要因素,他是对的。另一方面,在绝大多数历史阶段,国家权力不仅仅具有强制性,还具有极强的压迫性,所以社会经济压迫和更加安全的生活常常相伴而行,虽然这种结合并非始终如此。这就是利维坦崛起所带来的代价。 伴随国家的出现,战争死亡率大幅下降的第二点原因相对不那么明显,较少被人提及。和之前的部落群体相比,国家及其军队的规模都更庞大,往往要大得多,从而形成了一种国家间大规模战争冲突的宏大印象。国家战争看似很大,论绝对规模的确不小。然而,主要的问题并非是绝对死亡数,而是相对死亡率,即死于暴力的人口百分比。国家状态下,恰恰由于国家庞大,相对死亡率其实是下降的。与部落群体相比,大型国家面对战争,只需要更低的动员强度,从而令更多的平民免于战争的袭扰。 以人类历史上最早的国家和帝国之一埃及为例。公元前十三世纪,法老拉美西斯二世率军在叙利亚北部与赫梯帝国爆发卡迭石战役,麾下士兵两万至两万五千人。在那个时代,这是一只规模庞大的军队。然而,当时埃及总人口约为两百至三百万,因此,这支军队最多占总人口的百分之一。 纵观历史,对于大型国家和帝国而言,这是一个非常标准的比例,因为长期维持一支远离本土的大规模部队,涉及各种繁杂的财政与后勤问题。因此,对比小规模部落社会的全民皆兵,大型国家部队的参军率以及战争伤亡要低得多。此外,小型部落的战争和冲突中,最容易遭受损失的是女性和儿童,而埃及的平民则远离战争的喧嚣,通常也不会直面战争的恐惧。 这种相对安全,是国家出现后社会人口大量增长的主要原因之一,只有在发生大规模入侵时才会被破坏。这也正是为什么内战——国家内部肆虐的战火——往往会成为最具杀伤力的战争形式,这点也曾被霍布斯清楚地认识到。因此,国家的崛起,意味着规模更大、更加恢弘的战争,然而就整体而言,相对于总人口的伤亡更低。 继利维坦国家崛起之后,战争减少的第二大阶段伴随着过去两个多世纪现代工业化时代而出现。自从1815年拿破仑兵败滑铁卢之后,战争数量和战争总体死亡率锐减,发达国家尤甚,乍听这种观点,很多人往往惊讶莫名。1945年后列强间的所谓长期和平则更多地得到承认,这其中当然应该肯定核武器这个决定性因素的作用,核武器成功地吸引了所有玩家的注意,成为他们脖子上的绞索。民主国家之间的和平也得到了相当程度的认可。 然而,早在核子时代之前,无论是民主国家还是非民主国家,战争便已经非常显著地减少。1815年之后的一个世纪,经济发达国家的战争频率降至此前一个世纪的三分之一,变化幅度空前。我必须强调:降至三分之一,而非下降三分之一。事实上,自1945年至今2012年,现代强权之间已共享长期和平长达六十七年之久,史上第二长的和平期则历时四十三年,从1871年普法战争至1914年一战,第三长和平期跨越三十九年,从1815年拿破仑战争终结至1854年克里米亚战争。可见,迄今为止,现代强权体系中三段长期和平全部都出现在1815年之后,前两段均早于核子时代。这种引人注目的现象绝非偶然。显而易见,如果要解释自1815年之后,战争状态整体上的减少,那么同时也需要说明,这一大潮中两段刺眼的逆流:两次世界大战。 越来越多的人开始认为,过去两个世纪里,战争频率之所以开始下降,是因为战争变得太过致命、太过具有毁灭性,太过昂贵。然而这一假说很难成立,因为战争所造成的相对伤亡、所消耗的相对财富并不比以前的历史阶段更惊人或者更高昂。十九世纪作为欧洲史上最宁静的世纪,其战争程度相对而言格外温和。的确,世界大战,尤其是二战,在伤亡方面绝对位列前茅。然而,不同于我们的直观认识,两次世界大战远非史上惨烈之最。再一次,我们需要审视相对伤亡,战争中的总体死亡率,而不是因为参战的国家多,就把数字一个个加起来。 举几个例子就足以证明,前现代战争的伤亡率和毁灭性并不比现代战争来得小。第二次布匿战争(公元前218-216年)的头三年,罗马损失了约五万17至46岁之间的男性公民,而帝国全境该年龄段的男子一共才二十万人。仅仅三年时间,损失兵役人口的四分之一,与二战期间苏联军事死亡率相当,高于德军的军事死亡率。 与之类似,十三世纪蒙古铁骑横扫欧亚大陆,所造成的伤亡和毁灭性在历史上名列前茅。据估计,中国、俄罗斯人口大幅下降,尽管估算数据颇有浮动。然而,即使按照最低值计算,也与苏联二战时期高达15%的恐怖人口损失数据相当,而中国地区的人口损失率几乎肯定远超该数据。最后一个例子是三十年战争(1618-1648),德国人口损失在五分之一至三分之一,无论哪个数字都比德国一战、二战死亡率之和还高。 人们通常也认定,现代更发达的军事技术意味着更高的杀伤力和毁灭性。然而,更发达的军事技术其实也意味着更好的防护力,例如机械化装甲、摩托化机动,以及防御性电子手段。攻防的先进性通常交替上升,此消彼长。此外,我们太容易忘记,无论是犹太人、苏联战俘,还是苏联平民,二战期间被德国杀害的数以百万计非战斗人员中的绝大部分,他们忍饥挨饿,暴尸荒野,被大量处决,而非死于什么精密的军事技术。 二十世纪发生的几次种族灭绝,与历史上更为古老的屠杀一样,都是利用最简单的技术加以实现,卢旺达种族灭绝者手中的弯刀时时刻刻提醒着我们这一点。是啊,核武器是终极武器,其杀伤力和毁灭性的确空前。然而,正如我们刚才所提到的,远在核子时代之前,战争就开始减少,该趋势同样适用于核子时代的无核国家。因此,尽管二战之后,核武器为促进世界和平发挥了重要的作用,军事技术也很难被视作1815年之后战争减少的原因。 说在过去二百年里,战争比以前更花钱,这也不是真的,因为还是要考虑相对于整体财富这个因素。战争总会牵扯经济运行的方方面面,也是最昂贵的单项国家开支。十六、十七世纪西班牙、十八世纪法国的经济都被战争以及高昂的战争赔款所摧毁,法国甚至因此爆发革命。还有,前现代战争普遍会引发饥荒,这同样会导致死亡。因此,与现代战争相比,前现代战争既不少死人,也不少花钱,或更少毁灭性。 另一种对近代战争行为减少的解释颇有点一厢情愿,认为这是社会对于战争“态度转变”使然。也没人解释为什么这一态度转变,以及民众乐于“戒掉战争瘾”的意愿,会出现在这个历史时间点,而不是更早。毕竟,绝大多数类似佛教、基督教这样的强势道德主义都在谴责战争,千百年下来也没什么成效。这种理论是在说,人民突然就意识到战争就算不疯狂,也是很愚蠢,毫无理性可言。 对于战争的这种看法,在当今现代而又富足的世界里得到了广泛传播。但是想想成吉思汗,他的子孙后代盘踞东亚和中亚长达几个世纪,基因研究表明,他们加班加点,制造出占这些地区全部男性总数8%的子孙,这是何等令人瞠目的性机遇。 不要以为只有独裁者和军事贵族才能从战争中获益,我们应当谨记,古典时代靠战争发家的两大城邦国家分别是民主的雅典和共和的罗马。这两大文明之所以能够成功的关键因素,恰恰是这些政治体系中的人民能够从战争和帝国扩张中获益,所以人们拥护战争,积极投身其中。此外,纵观历史,人民常常会恐惧战争,哀悼战争,正如他们经常热情洋溢地歌颂战争的荣光,传扬英雄的伟业一样。 为了达到目的,人们会采用合作、和平竞争,或者暴力冲突等手段。每种行为策略都是精心设计的工具,可以根据具体的环境和对成功的预期交替使用。暴力并非是一种盲目的生物本能,而是一种为了达到目的,精心选择的策略。这是我们行为工具箱的一把重锤,曾经总是那么趁手自如;其必要性和优越性常常能得到证明。因此,为了理解人类的选择和规范,从暴力冲突转向合作及和平竞争这样的非暴力选项,就必须理解在过去两个世纪以及最近几十年中,环境以及效费比计算方式发生了何种改变。 的确,如果过去两个世纪,战争没有变得更花钱,更具毁灭性,人们对战争态度的改变也不是从空气中蹦出来的,那为什么战争减少了,尤其在发达国家之间?甚至在十九世纪中叶以前,类似圣西门、奥古斯特·孔德、约翰·斯图尔特·密尔,以及曼彻斯特学派的思想家们便很快注意到了这种变化,并且意识到这是由工商业革命的兴起所引发,这一革命是自新石器时代人类学会农业之后,最为深远的人类社会转型。 首先,在世界上已完成工业革命的地区,从工业革命伊始到现在,人均财富翻了三十到五十倍,由于人均财富呈现爆炸性增长,马尔萨斯陷阱得以克服。财富总量再也不会成为基本限制,唯一的问题是如何对财富进行分配,因此,对财富的追求渐渐不再是一个零和博弈。 其次,各国的经济活动不再完全自给自足,通过专业化、规模化,以及交易,国际互联性与日俱增。因此,外国的灾难有可能令整个经济系统变得萧条,从而损害本国自己的利益。(这种现象,最早被密尔所注意,在一战后得到完全证实,凯恩斯在1920年出版的《和约的经济后果》(The Economic Consequences of the Peace)一书中批评向德国索取战争赔款时,便已经预计到了相应的后果。) 第三,更大程度的经济开放,将经济活动与政治主权剥离开来,从而减少了战争爆发的可能。从某个地区获利,不再需要对其进行政治统治。所有这些因素之中,商业上的相互依赖吸引了学术界最多的关注。然而,其他两项因素的重要性也毫不承让。 因此,竞争性经济活动的收益越大,冲突发生的阻力越大,吸引力越小。并非是广为认可的“战争更加费钱”,其实是“和平更加有利可图”。 如果情况的确如此,那为什么过去二百年里,战争还是在发生,尽管频率低得多?首先,种族和民族之间的张力常常盖过新兴的经济逻辑,这足以解释1815年至1945年之间欧洲绝大部分战争。直到今天,这种现象依然存在,在全球不发达地区尤为明显。 此外,十九世纪末二十世纪初,新经济逻辑出现倒退,起因是列强重拾保护主义政策,并随着新帝国主义将保护主义扩展至不发达地区。保护主义与新帝国主义扩张相结合,意味着新兴全球经济被分割成不同的帝国区域,每个帝国领域都会对外变得封闭,而不是更加开放。二十世纪三十年代,全球经济也的确演变成为这种格局。 雪球效应由此产生,列强竞相争夺帝国殖民地。对于领土受限的德国和日本,“帝国生存空间”或“共荣圈”的需求变得极为紧迫。两次大战的种子由此埋下。进而,二十世纪最初十年经济自由主义的衰退,导致反自由、反民主的政治理念和政权的崛起,而这种反自由、反民主势头的崛起,又反过来使经济自由主义更加衰退。二者的相互作用,便催生出一种暴力信条:共产主义和法西斯主义。 1945年之后,大战出现的概率进一步减少。在此期间,核武器发挥了重要的作用。但自由贸易的制度化,以及与之密切相关的经济快速且可持续发展也非常重要。自由民主的传播同样功不可没。的确,尽管在工业时代,不自由不民主的国家一样不怎么打仗,但自由民主政体才更符合和平的主旋律。 由于国内专制高压,非民主国家对外用兵更加自然。相反,自由民主社会内部以和平、法律仲裁关系为主导,因此人民往往希望将同样的范式应用于国际事务。生活在一个越来越宽容的社会中,人民也就越来越容易包容别人的观点。尽管民主国家最初也是庞大的帝国,然而随着提倡自由、法律平等、以及国内政治参与等理念的深入人心,自由民主国家便会发现,在没有得到外国人民同意的情况下,对其进行统治,合理性受到越来越多的质疑。 由于珍视生命、自由,倡导人权,当试图推行压迫统治时,自由民主国家变会陷入被动。进而,在自由民主社会,个人生命和追求幸福的价值被认为远高于集体价值,在战争中牺牲生命正在越来越多地丧失其合法性。只有在极少数正式而实用的情况下,战争才具有合法性。同时战争被广泛地厌恶,不受大众欢迎。 这种不断深化的潮流和共识简直就是奇迹。其最耀眼而广受世人所认可的成就便是民主国家间的和平。随着自由化、民主化,以及经济发展的深入,富裕民主国家之间爆发战争的可能性已降至零点,它们甚至不认为有必要就可能发生的军事纠纷而对另一个民主国家进行军事准备。历史上第一次,曾经是国际无政府主义状态之内在特性的邻国安全困境(security dilemma)【编注:安全困境也叫霍布斯陷阱,是指这样一种局面:当你附近出现一个有能力对你进行打击的邻居,而你又无法确信其善意,就不得不采取预防措施,要么增强防御,要么先发制人,同样的逻辑在对方也成立,结果要么是直接导致战争,要么引发不断升级的军备竞赛,而后者在力量失衡时同样导致战争。这一困境提示了,即便各方最初都无意攻击对方而只是想自保,霍布斯状态下战争也难以避免】不复存在,尤其是在北美、西欧这样世界上最现代化、最自由民主的地区,和平得到实现。 随着苏维埃帝国的崩溃,前社会主义政权汇入全球资本经济的大潮之中,东欧、南亚、东南亚,以及拉丁美洲的经济快速增长与民主化结伴而行,发达国家爆发大战的前景变得愈加遥远。战争的地缘中心从根本上发生了转移。世界上现代化的、经济发达的地区已经变成了“和平区”。战争现在主要限定在不发达地区,即世界的“战争区”,这些国家在现代化进程中落在了后面,其相应的副产品就是时不时地打来打去,有时还会和发达国家开战。 1945年后,国家间战争大幅减少的同时,国内战争有所增加,所以有人就信誓旦旦,说战争并未减少,只不过形式有所转变。就好像说有个什么暴力守恒定律,规定暴力总数为一个定值。然而,这是一种误解,源于对材料的无差别诠释,就像有句谚语里说,平均两寸深的湖水也能淹死人。 现实中,世界上不同地区的社会经济发展非常不均衡,所以,国内战争同样出现了国家间战争所表现出的下降趋势。由于具有更强的共识性、多数代表性、包容度,以及在和平分离方面更大的合法性,现代化的、经济发达、自由民主的国家,实际上已不会发生内战。 相反,不发达或者发展中国家更容易发生内战。这样的国家,往往民族四分五裂,中央政府软弱无力,于二战后去殖民地化并独立建国,从而造成全球范围的内战数量增长。因此,无论是国家间战争还是内战,均主要出现在世界上不发达或者发展中地区。如果考虑到这些地区终将实现现代化,从这个意义上来讲,未来尚且光明。 说了这么多最近几十年的现代化进程中,战争大幅减少,和平播撒人间之后,应当强调,这些巨大的改善或者说正在改善的条件,并非完全确凿无疑,不足以确保人类免于大规模战争的阴影。随着世界新秩序被世界新无序威胁,冷战后的欣快时光恐怕会转瞬即逝。发达国家爆发大战的可能性依然很低。然而,1989柏林墙崩塌后,基于资本主义和民主胜利的那种深刻的变革感,已备受侵蚀。 或许,最重要的改变就是非民主资本主义强权的回归,这种政体自1945年德国、日本被击败之后就长期缺席于国际社会。前共产主义国家中国经历了大发展和工业化,已经演变为专制资本主义,这将成为改变全球平衡的最重要因素。还有俄罗斯,褪去后共产自由主义之后,正逐渐成为一个独裁国家。这些国家是否能够随发展而最终实现民主化,大概是二十一世纪最重大的问题。 早在当前这轮经济大衰退开始之前,我就曾经在《外交事务》上撰文指出,历史的教训并不明朗,并非进步主义者——例如最近,也是最有名的福山——所深信的那样具有必然性。此次经济危机爆发以来,专制强权更加自信。继二十世纪三十年代因资本主义民主的失败而导致法西斯和共产主义极权的崛起之后,全球霸主和民主资本主义遭受无与伦比的一记重拳。 有人希望,当前的经济危机不会演变成一场灾难。然而,国家驱动和民族资本主义专制的诱惑的的确确增加了。与此同时,二十世纪民主胜利的支柱——虽然世人一贯对此有所低估——美国势力正在经历相对衰退,尽管或许不会像某些人预想的那么严重。 新资本主义专制势力分享了“发展、开放、贸易、资本”的和平,深深地整合进了世界经济之中,但却没有成为自由民主国家。因此,在该系统中,避免任何贸易保护主义就显得至关重要,不仅仅是因为贸易保护主义有可能损害经济,还因为避免保护主义可以防止出现抢夺市场和原材料的风潮,在二十世纪最初几十年中,正是这些行为,最终导致了灾难性的帝国保护主义和国际纷争。 即使前景并非如此暗淡,随着实力的增长,中国也有可能成为一个更加专断跋扈的势力,就算不会变得具有十足的侵略性,也会像超级强权那样四处秀肌肉。民主和非民主势力或许多少可以和平地共存,出于相互的恐惧和疑虑彼此戒备。然而还是存在这样一种前景,更具对抗性的关系、意识形态方面增强竞争、潜在和现实的摩擦、军备竞赛加剧,甚至启动新一轮的冷战。中国和俄罗斯对于全球专制政权的支持——最明显的就是叙利亚和伊朗——或许只是将来局面的牛刀小试。 战争减少的第二个明显反例是,过去二十多年里局部战争不断上演,这些战争大部分由美国连同其北约或其他盟友发动,但对手却十分落后,跟现代化民主化几乎沾不上边。反叛乱战争格外吸引到大量关注和批评,而且确实构成了一个难解之谜。超级强国能够轻而易举地碾压最为强大的敌对国家,然而却在世界上最贫穷积弱的地区面对武力孱弱的对手一筹莫展。 但是,人们往往忽略了这样的一个事实,这种困难并非普遍难题,而一边倒的出现在很多自由民主国家,他们之所以遇上这样的问题,恰恰因为他们是自由民主国家。民主国家的行为招致了大量的批评非议,其中有些并非无理取闹,这或许可以看作民主的荣誉而非包袱。 历史经验表明,粉碎叛乱就需要无情地压迫平民,这令自由民主国家越来越难以接受。前现代国家,以及现代独裁国家和极权国家,就不会为使用这些手段而感到困扰,而且总的来说,他们的压迫行动相当成功。 压迫,是帝国统治不可或缺之基石。大英帝国和法兰西帝国之所以能够以如此低的成本维持统治,仅仅是因为他们能够毫无忌惮地推行无情压迫,就拿英国来说,直到1857年还在镇压印度叛变。然而,自十九世纪末以来,自由主义观点深入人心,尽管表面上风头无两,民主帝国其实已时日无多。 转入二十世纪,大英举步维艰,最终在南非达成和解,从爱尔兰撤军,这对于其他自由民主帝国也是一个明确的信号。几乎被世人所忽视的一个事实是,二战后,去殖民化大潮仅仅发生在自由民主帝国之中(以英国和法国为甚)。根本谈不上什么民意压力的非民主帝国,要么像德国和日本一样在两次世界大战中被摧毁,要么在独裁统治土崩瓦解之际和平解体,例如苏联。 质疑者或许会说,当年纳粹德国面对南斯拉夫和苏联的游击队同样一筹莫展。但是,如果德国赢了二战,就能向各种争议地区派遣更多军队,其种族清洗手段也能大展神威。苏联在阿富汗的失败是另一个鲜明的反例,但阿富汗是个例外,位于苏维埃帝国统治系统之外。 车臣或许更能说明问题,而且前因后果一目了然:运用大规模放逐手段的斯大林苏维埃铁腕统治是最残忍也是有效的,九十年代的自由俄罗斯最为温情脉脉,也最无效,而普京制下的独裁俄罗斯介于二者之间。 值得留意的是,在苏联和东欧内部压制反对声音确实更加容易。实际上,我们所能看到的成功叛乱样本,在遭受严重的选择偏差之后,完全被扭曲了,有点像福尔摩斯说的,“一条不叫的狗”——独裁的铁腕下,帝国内部万马齐喑——我们看到的只是最突出的、最具故事性的案例。同样的情况适用于中国,那里成功地对藏人和穆斯林民族主义者进行长期压制,只要中国一日不民主,这些镇压就还将继续存在下去。 人们指责阿萨德在叙利亚的统治残暴,平叛无功。叙利亚的悲剧至2012年的今天已经持续一年半有余,据估计两万多人因此丧命。然而,1982年镇压穆斯林兄弟会哈马城起义时,老阿萨德在三天时间就制造出数量与此相当的尸体。由于害怕外国势力介入,小阿萨德不能像他的父亲那样肆无忌惮。而普京的俄罗斯也没能全盘承袭其前任苏联的那种超级力量,那种东西已经怅然消失了。 并不是说民主国家的所作所为就神圣得无可挑剔。无论是由政治军事当局实施的暴力,还是军队的恣意妄为,都会无差别地针对战斗人员和非战斗人员。自由民主国家严格限制针对平民的暴力,这构成其法律规范标准。尽管很多——或许是绝大部分——违反这条标准的暴力行为都未经报道,但那些已经被自由媒体捅出来的案子,还是会受到公众的谴责和法律的制裁。根据历史纵向比较和国家间横向比较可知,所有这些措施,极大限制了自由民主国家的压迫能力。 要想取得反叛乱战争的胜利就非得残忍无情的观点,其对立面正是近代自由民主宣传中所认定的 “赢得民心”。诚然,施以恩惠、与之合作,展现出令人愉悦的“软实力”,至少赢得被征服社会精英阶层的民心,是帝国“绥靖”政策的中心环节。然而,天鹅绒手套总是罩着一只铁拳,当机立断粉碎本地抵抗,毫无疑问依然是异国统治的终极手段。“赢得民心”确实已成为维持外国社会和平的脆弱而昂贵的指导方针,但那只是因为,自由民主国家实际上已经丧失了武力碾压这些社会的能力。 尽管存在无可辩驳的残忍行为以及政策错误,民主国家的反叛乱战争史依然可以算作其高贵品行的明证。对别国的人道主义干涉同样不可避免地会遭遇上述棘手问题,这的确在一定程度上阻挠了这些干涉。而且,对外干涉逐渐增多,也是为了应对笼罩在战争减少大势上的另一团阴影——非传统恐怖主义。 2001年9月11日,美国遭受大规模恐怖袭击,这起事件成为划时代的界标,并非由于恐怖活动本身,而是一个可怕的征兆,预示着一个晦暗的未来。那就是非传统恐怖主义采用大规模杀伤性武器带来的威胁:核武器、生物武器,以及化学武器。其中,化学武器威胁最小,再成功不过的化学武器顶多杀伤数千人。生物武器的杀伤力要大几个数量级。 基因解码和生物技术方面革命性的突破,大大提升了生物武器的杀伤力和易用性。实验室培育的一株剧毒的细菌或病毒就能够造成与核弹相当的伤亡,更不用说经过特殊选育、尚未出现免疫的超级细菌了,而恐怖分子要搞到这些生物武器远比核弹容易。幸运的是,相对于化学武器和生物武器,恐怖分子无法生产核武器。当然,他们可能从那些能够生产核武器的国家获得。 这个问题的根源在于,原本属于国家级别的大规模杀伤性武器的技术和原料向下流动。核技术流入低安全标准、高度腐败的国家带来的最严峻风险就是与日俱增的泄密危机。迄今为止最著名的案例,就是阿卜杜勒·卡迪尔·汗(Abdul Qadeer Khan),这位掌舵巴基斯坦核弹项目的负责人把核武器秘密卖给了大概十多个国家。 而且,世界上不发达不稳定的地区也有可能陷入分裂和无政府状态。一旦国家政府崩溃,无政府状态取而代之,谁能确保这个国家的核武库安全无虞?这方面,巴基斯坦再次成为一个值得再三讨论的案例。其实,前核武器超级大国苏联的崩溃就是未来威胁的典型模式。出于上述诸多原因,恐怖分子购买、偷窃、抢劫,甚至制造大规模杀伤性武器的能力已经大幅增加了。 007这种类型小说里老生常谈的威胁世界的个人和组织,突然一下子变成了现实。今天这个时代,无需变得强大就可以给世界重重一击。核武器的威慑作用就是基于确保相互摧毁,而这对恐怖分子而言毫无意义,正是他们,而非国家政权,更乐于使用终极武器。与超级大国在冷战中形成的规范不同,恐怖分子所获得的非传统能力非常实用。一旦存在可能,就很难看到什么东西会制止这种事在某时某地变成实实在在的威胁,尤其对于生物技术,潜力确实存在,并且正在逐渐扩大。 这是一个盘根错节的问题,不存在简洁明快的解决方案。防止核扩张,追剿恐怖分子的国际合作至关重要,但是很多国家要么主动抵制,要么作壁上观。外界军事干预极具争议,充满种种困难。一旦这样的事情发生【编注:从上下文看,似乎是指核扩散这件事】,对核武装的伊朗进行军事打击,就成了以色列或美国手中可以打出的一张牌,进而有可能演变成一场涉及世界主要力量的战争。 防御策略基本与先发制人一样问题丛生,对民主国家尤甚。对嫌疑犯的超期羁押意味着异乎寻常的法律程序,繁杂善后处理方法,对民众的监视监听,和其他侵犯隐私的行为,这正是民主国家舆论热火朝天讨论的、法庭上唇枪舌战的话题。涉及反恐战争的进攻和防御两方面议题时,讨论便带有了苦涩的意识形态和义愤色彩。然而,非传统恐怖主义的威胁是真实存在的,也将长期存在,此事绝难善罢甘休。 我们无疑正在经历史上最和平的时代,这是充满喜悦且有着深厚基础的和平大潮。然而,至少自1945年以来,现在是最危险的时代,因为人类第一次具有彻底摧毁自身的能力,即使个人和小团体也能够制造大规模的伤亡,毫无疑问。 众所周知,只要不和未来进行对照,预测就很准。即使最为基础的历史趋势,也会随时间改变方向,产生不同寻常的相互作用。只有时间才能告诉我们答案。我们只能希望,尽管小有起伏,整体趋势依然是确保并且深化我们这个时代的和平。虽然海里的鲸鱼们可能会反对,我们还是希望整个世界都能更像挪威一样。 (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]罗伯特·康奎斯特功莫大焉

The Triumph of Robert Conquest
罗伯特·康奎斯特的功绩

译者:Horace Rae(@sheldon_rae)     校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:The Wall Street Journal @ 2015-08-05
网址:http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-triumph-of-robert-conquest-1438814435

He chronicled the Soviet terror that so many in the West refused to see.

他记述了许多西方人拒绝正视的苏联大恐怖。

cover

President George W. Bush presents the Presidential Medal of Freedom to historian Robert Conquest, left, in Washington on Nov. 9, 2005. PHOTO: E(more...)

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The Triumph of Robert Conquest 罗伯特·康奎斯特的功绩 译者:Horace Rae(@sheldon_rae)     校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:The Wall Street Journal @ 2015-08-05 网址:http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-triumph-of-robert-conquest-1438814435 He chronicled the Soviet terror that so many in the West refused to see. 他记述了许多西方人拒绝正视的苏联大恐怖。 [caption id="attachment_6041" align="alignnone" width="300"]cover President George W. Bush presents the Presidential Medal of Freedom to historian Robert Conquest, left, in Washington on Nov. 9, 2005. PHOTO: EVAN VUCCI/ASSOCIATED PRESS 小布什总统在华盛顿为历史学家罗伯特·康奎斯特(左)颁发总统自由勋章。2005年11月9日。供图:EVAN VUCCI/ASSOCIATED PRESS。[/caption] Robert Conquest was born in 1917, the year of the Russian Revolution, so it seems fitting that he outlived the Soviet Union by more than 25 years. The indefatigable historian, and enemy, of Soviet totalitarianism died Tuesday at age 98. 罗伯特·康奎斯特生于1917年——俄国十月革命的那一年,所以他比苏联多活了25年是很恰当的。这位苏联极权主义的不倦史家和不懈之敌,于本周二【译注:2015年8月3日】逝世,享年89岁。 Conquest’s major themes were reality and delusion. “The Great Terror” (1968) was the first and still definitive treatment of Stalin’s purges, gulags, show trials and secret police, meticulously documenting the enormity of the death toll. “Harvest of Sorrow”(1986) chronicled what he called the “terror famines” that followed agricultural collectivization. 康奎斯特的研究主题是真实与幻想。《大恐怖》(1968)是关于斯大林政权的大清洗、古拉格集中营、审判秀和秘密警察的第一部论述,翔实记录了庞大的死亡人数,时至今日仍属权威。《苦难的丰收》(1986)则记录了农业集体化之后被他称为“恐怖饥荒”的事件。 When sources inside Russia were few and most Kremlinologists were oblivious, these classics contributed immensely to understanding the nature of the Communist project. They also helped shape the response that won the Cold War; Reagan and Thatcher were among his readers. 当时苏联内部的信息来源少之又少,而苏联问题专家们又袖手旁观,这些经典著作对理解共产主义事业的本质助益极大。它们也有助于制定针对苏联的对策,使我们赢得冷战。里根和撒切尔都读过他的书。 [Hoover Institution Research Fellow Stephen Kotkin on the late Anglo-American historian and his expose of Communist atrocities. Photo credit: Associated Press.] 【胡佛研究所研究员Stephen Kotkin谈论这位已故英裔美国历史学家及他对共产主义暴行的揭露。图片来源:Associated Press.】 Still, until Moscow opened the archives post-1989, leftist intellectuals and especially academics denied the realities Conquest exposed, claiming he exaggerated Stalin’s evil. That debate is now closed beyond challenge. 尽管如此,直到莫斯科1989年以后公开档案之前,左翼知识分子尤其是学术界一直否定康奎斯特所揭露的事实,说他夸大了斯大林的邪恶。现在,这种论调已经毫无争议地停歇了。 Conquest dedicated his later years at Stanford’s Hoover Institution to plumbing delusion, which he defined as “massive reality denial,” or why Russia had so many apologists and sympathizers. He blamed the persistence of destructive beliefs and the bottomless human capacity for self-deception. 康奎斯特晚年在斯坦福的胡佛研究所致力于研究幻想。他把“幻想”定义为“大规模否认事实”,或者(更具体而言),为什么有这么多人维护俄国,同情俄国。他谴责破坏性信念的顽固和人类无穷无尽的自我欺骗能力。 “The mere existence of the U.S.S.R., and its ideas, distorted the way in which many people over the whole world thought about society, the economy, human history,” Conquest wrote in these pages in 1992. “Many were seduced by the comfortable word ‘socialism,’ even to the extent of rejecting the Western ideas of free discussion, political compromise, plural society, piecemeal practicality, change without chaos.” “仅仅是苏联及其理念的存在,就扭曲了全世界很多人思考社会、经济、人类历史的方式,”1992年康奎斯特写道,“许多人都被‘社会主义’这个让人舒心的词汇引诱了,甚至到了抛弃西方的自由讨论、政治妥协、多元社会、零敲碎打式改良的务实精神、有序演变等理念的程度。” Conquest added that the lessons of the bloody 20th century “have not yet been learned, or not adequately so.” Many today across the world still offer solace to dictators and mass murderers, whatever their reasons, so Conquest’s insights into human deception remain and will always be relevant. 康奎斯特补充说,血腥的20世纪的教训“还没有被我们吸取,或者没有被完全吸取”。不管出于何种原因,现在世界上仍有许多人同情独裁者和屠杀者,所以,康奎斯特关于人类自我欺骗的论述会且一直会与我们息息相关。 (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]教会是科学的敌人吗?

The Mythical conflict between science and Religion
科学与宗教间莫须有的冲突

作者:James Hannam @ 2009-10-17
译者:22(@ 22)     校对:白猫D(@白猫D)
来源:Medieval Science and Philosophy, http://jameshannam.com/conflict.htm

Introduction
简介

Newspaper articles thrive on cliché. These are not so much hackneyed phrases but rather the useful shorthand for nuggets of popular perception that allow the journalist to immediately tune his readers to the right wavelength. Yesterday’s clichés are, of course, today’s stereotypes as any perusal of earlier writing will show. The conflict between science and religion is an acceptable cliché that crops up all over the place.

报纸文章充斥着陈词滥调。这些陈词滥调倒不是简单的陈腐语句,而是一个流行见解百宝箱,让记者可以方便趁手地用来将读者调到正确的认知波段上。当然,阅读任何早期文字都将发现,正是昨日的陈词滥调成就了今日的刻板印象。科学与宗教之间的矛盾冲突,便是一个到处都普遍为人所接受的陈词滥调。

In the episode of The Simpsons in which the late Stephen J. Gould was a guest voice, Lisa found a fossil angel and events led to a court order being placed on religion to keep a safe distance from science. Articles in magazines and on the internet all assume that a state of conflict exists between science and religion, always has existed and that science has been winning.

比如在《辛普森一家》Stephen J. Gould客串配音的那一集中,Lisa发现了一具天使化石,这一事件导致法院判令宗教要与科学保持一定的安全距离。杂志、网络文章也都假定宗教和科学间的冲突是存在的,并将一直存在着,而科学总会是获胜的一方。

Most popular histories of science view all the evidence through this lens without ever stop(more...)

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The Mythical conflict between science and Religion 科学与宗教间莫须有的冲突 作者:James Hannam @ 2009-10-17 译者:22(@ 22)     校对:白猫D(@白猫D) 来源:Medieval Science and Philosophy, http://jameshannam.com/conflict.htm Introduction 简介 Newspaper articles thrive on cliché. These are not so much hackneyed phrases but rather the useful shorthand for nuggets of popular perception that allow the journalist to immediately tune his readers to the right wavelength. Yesterday’s clichés are, of course, today’s stereotypes as any perusal of earlier writing will show. The conflict between science and religion is an acceptable cliché that crops up all over the place. 报纸文章充斥着陈词滥调。这些陈词滥调倒不是简单的陈腐语句,而是一个流行见解百宝箱,让记者可以方便趁手地用来将读者调到正确的认知波段上。当然,阅读任何早期文字都将发现,正是昨日的陈词滥调成就了今日的刻板印象。科学与宗教之间的矛盾冲突,便是一个到处都普遍为人所接受的陈词滥调。 In the episode of The Simpsons in which the late Stephen J. Gould was a guest voice, Lisa found a fossil angel and events led to a court order being placed on religion to keep a safe distance from science. Articles in magazines and on the internet all assume that a state of conflict exists between science and religion, always has existed and that science has been winning. 比如在《辛普森一家》Stephen J. Gould客串配音的那一集中,Lisa发现了一具天使化石,这一事件导致法院判令宗教要与科学保持一定的安全距离。杂志、网络文章也都假定宗教和科学间的冲突是存在的,并将一直存在着,而科学总会是获胜的一方。 Most popular histories of science view all the evidence through this lens without ever stopping to think that there might be another side to the story. But let us turn from popular culture to the academy where we find a rather different picture. 大多数通俗科学史将所有证据置于有色棱镜下观看,却从未停下思考过故事是否有另一面。那么,让我们从坊间传闻走向学院考据,或许在那里,我们可以看到另一幅历史景象。 Let’ s have a look at the comments of a few leading historians of science: 让我们来看几位主流科学史家的评论吧: John Hedley Brooke was the Andreas Idreos Professor of Science and Religion at the University of Oxford. He is a leading historian of science in England and the author of Science and Religion - Some Historical Perspectives (1991). In this book, he writes of the conflict hypothesis “In its traditional forms, the thesis has been largely discredited”. John Hedley Brooke是牛津大学科学与宗教学Andreas Idreos讲席教授。他是英国科学史的领军人物,著有《科学与宗教:历史学观点》(1991)。在该书中,他谈及冲突假说“以其一直以来的形式而言,是不足信的”。 David Lindberg is Hilldale Professor Emeritus of the History of Science at the University of Wisconsin - Madison. He is the author of many books on medieval science and also on religion. With Ronald Numbers, the current Hilldale and William Coleman Professor of the History of Science and Medicine at the same university, he writes “Despite a developing consensus among scholars that science and Christianity have not been at war, the notion of conflict has refused to die”. David Lindberg是威斯康辛大学麦迪逊分校科学史Hilldale讲席荣休教授,撰写了多本关于中世纪科学和宗教的著作。他和同校的Ronald Numbers,现任科学和医学史Hilldale & William Coleman讲席教授,都认为,“尽管学者已就科学和基督教间并未水火不容这点达成共识,但有关两者冲突的观念仍未消失”。 Steven Shapin is Professor of Sociology at the University of California, San Diego. He writes "In the late Victorian period it was common to write about the "warfare between science and religion" and to presume that the two bodies of culture must always have been in conflict. However, it is a very long time since these attitudes have been held by historians of science." Steven Shapin是加州大学圣地亚哥分校的社会学教授,他认为,“‘科学与宗教间的战争’是维多利亚时代晚期被反复书写的一个话题,大众也因而假定这两个文化团体一直以来都处于冲突之中”。 Finally, we come to the dean of medieval science, Edward Grant, Professor Emeritus of the History and Philosophy of Science at Indiana University who writes of that most slandered of periods, the Middle Ages, when faith was supposed to have snuffed out all forms of reason “If revolutionary rational thoughts were expressed in the Age of Reason [the 18th century], they were only made possible because of the long medieval tradition that established the use of reason as one of the most important of human activities”. 最后,让我们听听印第安纳大学中世纪科学系主任、历史与科学哲学荣休教授Edward Grant是如何评价这个一直被严重抹黑的、据认为在此期间信仰抹杀了所有形式理性的中世纪。Grant教授指出,“革命性的理性思想之所以能出现在理性时代(18世纪),正是因为在中世纪建立起来的运用理性作为人类最重要活动的悠久传统”。 So, as a theory believed by working historians, the conflict hypothesis is dead. In this article, I want to examine two questions that follow from this. Firstly, if the conflict hypothesis has been rejected by practically every scholar in the field, why is there such a rift between academic opinion and popular perception? And secondly, what has been the real relationship between science and religion? 因此,“冲突假设已经过时了”——这是一个被当今历史学家普遍接受的观点。在本文中,我将检验由此引出的两个问题。第一,如果冲突假说实际上真的被每一个业内学者抛弃,那么学院派观点和大众认知见的巨大分歧又是从何而来的?第二,科学与宗教间的真实关系到底是怎样的? The conflict hypothesis 冲突假说 Science is the triumph of Western civilisation which has made all its other achievements possible. The enormity of this triumph has very often been reflected onto the historiography of science to produce a story akin to a triumphal progress. From Copernicus onwards, we are told, each generation built on the discoveries of their forerunners to produce a parade of successes with barely a backwards step. 科学是西方文明的胜利,它使得一切其他成就变为可能。这项胜利如此巨大,以至于反映到科学编史学中,就被谱成了一曲不断进步最终迈向胜利的凯旋之歌。我们被告知,从哥白尼开始,每一代人都在前人发现的基础上不断成功前进而少有退步。 This history has been built on two assumptions: that there is something epistemologically unique about science and that reason and rationality are what causes progress in science. Scientists themselves have generally been keen on these ideas and been happy to promote them. 这样的历史描述基于两点假设。第一,科学在认识论上有独一无二的优势;第二,理性与理性能力促进了科学的进步。科学家普遍热心于这些想法,也乐于传播它们。 Such has been status of science in modern society that this self description, promulgated by writers like Carl Sagan and Jacob Bronowski, has generally been respected by the general public who have been less interested in the more nuanced views historians. 这一对科学在现代社会中所居地位的自我描述,经由像卡尔·萨根(Carl Sagan)和雅各布·布朗劳斯基(Jacob Bronowski)这样的作家传播,逐渐为一般大众所接受,而这些大众却往往对历史学家们更细致入微的观点缺少兴趣。 The myth of conflict first really got going during the Enlightenment (itself a description intended to derogate earlier eras) with the fiercely anti-clerical French philosophes. In his Discours Preliminaire, Jean d’Alembert paints a picture of men of the Renaissance finally throwing off the shackles of church domination so that rational enquiry can at last begin. This idea was carried through the nineteenth century with historians like John William Draper and Andrew Dickson White. 这个冲突虚构的最初流行肇始于启蒙运动(这个词本身就是对先前时代的贬低)时期的一位激进反教权法国哲学家朗达贝尔(Jean d’Alembert)。在他的《百科全书序论》中,他将文艺复兴时期描绘为人们最终挣脱教会统治的枷锁,并开始理性思考的一个时代。这个想法持续到了19世纪被威廉·H·德雷珀(John William Draper)和安德鲁·D·怀特(Andrew Dickson White)等历史学家继承。 White was the most famous and successful exponent of the conflict hypothesis. He is commonly quoted at the start of modern books on science and religion as representing the soon-to-be-debunked traditional view. It is worth briefly examining whether White was being entirely honest in his work as no one doubts that Draper was engaged in nothing more that polemic. 怀特是冲突假说最著名、也是最成功的鼓吹者。他通常在有关科学与宗教的现代书籍中开篇即被援引,作为即将被我们揭穿的传统观点之代表而出现。我们有必要简要检验一下,怀特在捍卫其观点时是否完全诚实,因为没有人会怀疑德雷珀对这场论战的投入只有简单的争吵。 Neither of them were professional historians and both did seem to sincerely believe in the warfare theory they were expounding. Unfortunately, this meant that they set out to prove what they already believed rather than take their conclusions from the facts. White is quite explicit about this when he writes how he felt before he began his research, “I saw... the conflict between two epochs in the evolution of human thought - the theological and the scientific.” 他们两人都不是专业历史学家,但都坚信着他们提出的冲突理论。不幸的是,这意味着他们要去证明他们已经相信的观点,而不是从事实中提取结论。怀特对他在研究之前是如何想的这一点非常坦诚:“我先看到了人类思想发展中两个时代间的冲突——神学时代的和科学时代的”。 Any such statement should immediately set off alarm bells which grow louder as we look at his work The Warfare of Science with Theology. His usual tactics are to scour the sources for some stick-in-the-mud reactionary and claim this represents the consensus of religious opinion and then find another thinker (who is usually just as faithful a Christian as the reactionary) who turned out to be right, and claim that they represent reason. 任何此类的论述都应立即敲响我们的警钟。当我们读他的《科学与神学的战争》时,更要提高警惕。怀特惯用的手法是搜罗一些极端保守人士的观点,并声称这些人的观点代表了宗教人士的共识;接着又找到另一位思想家(通常是和那位极端保守分子一样也是忠实基督徒)证明他的观点是对的,并声称他们代表了理性。 Hence using anachronism and claiming obscure figures were in fact influential, he is able to manufacture a conflict where none exists. A detailed critique of his work from Lindberg and Numbers can be read here but I would like to point out a few errors in the specific area of religious persecution of scientists. 因此,利用这种时代错位、吹嘘一些名不见经传人士的重要性,怀特成功捏造了一个其实不曾存在的冲突。Lindberg和Numbers对他作品的更多详细批评可以在这里读到,但是我更想先澄清有关宗教迫害科学家这件事情的一些误解。 White's examples of actual prosecution are few and far between which is not very surprising as the only scientist the Christian Church ever prosecuted for scientific ideas per se was Galileo and even here historians doubt that was the major reason he got into trouble. 怀特提及迫害的例子屈指可数且多远离事实。这并不出人意料,因为唯一一个因为科学观点而被教会迫害的科学家便是伽利略,而历史学家甚至怀疑这并不是他惹上麻烦的真正原因。 This is an embarrassment for White as he thought that in the Middle Ages especially, the Church was burning freethinkers left, right and centre. The lack of any examples of this at all is a serious problem so he is forced to draft in non-scientists or else to claim that prosecutions on non-scientific matters were scientific persecutions after all. Here are some examples: 这一情形对怀特来说很尴尬,因为他认为教会,特别是中世纪教会,会烧死左、中、右派的所有自由思想家。缺乏证据对他来说是个大问题,因此他被迫加入一些非科学家的例子来证明针对非科学事物的迫害归根到底也是针对科学的迫害。这里有一些例子: Roger Bacon has been a popular martyr for science since the nineteenth century. He was a scholastic theologian who was keen to claim Aristotle for the Christian faith. He was not a scientist in any way we would recognise and his ideas are not nearly so revolutionary as they are often painted. 罗杰·培根 (Roger Bacon)从19世纪以来就是一个被人熟知的科学殉道者。他其实是一个热衷于宣传亚里士多德拥有基督教信仰的经院哲学家。他从任何一方面来说都不是科学家,他的想法也不像宣传的那样具有革命性。 In chapter 12 of his book, White writes of Roger “the charges on which St. Bonaventura silenced him, and Jerome of Ascoli imprisoned him, and successive popes kept him in prison for fourteen years, were "dangerous novelties" and suspected sorcery.” 怀特在他的书的第十二章中这样描写Roger,“圣波纳文图拉迫使他噤声,阿斯克利的杰罗姆监禁了他,继任的教皇们又关了他十四年,所有这些指控都是因为他‘危险的创新’和可疑的巫术。” This is untrue. As Lindberg says “his imprisonment, if it occurred at all (which I doubt) probably resulted with his sympathies for the radical “poverty” wing of the Franciscans (a wholly theological matter) rather than from any scientific novelties which he may have proposed.” 这不是真的。正如Lindberg所说,“他的监禁,如果是真的话(我很怀疑),很可能是因为他对于主张苦修的方济各会的同情(完全是神学原因),而不是因为他提倡的一些科学新思想”。 In chapter 2, White informs us “In 1327 Cecco d’Ascoli, noted as an astronomer, was for this [the doctrine of antipodes] and other results of thought, which brought him under suspicion of sorcery, driven from his professorship at Bologna and burned alive at Florence.” 在第二章里,怀特告诉我们,“在1327年,天文学家切科·达斯克利由于‘对跖点’学说和一些其他思想,被怀疑为行使巫术。他因此被剥夺了在博洛尼亚大学的教职,并在佛罗伦萨被活活烧死。” Cecco D’Ascoli was indeed burnt at the stake in 1327 in Florence. He is the only natural philosopher in the entire Middle Ages to pay this penalty and was executed for breaking parole after a previous trial when he had been convicted of heresy for, apparently, claiming Jesus Christ was subject to the stars. 切科·达斯克利确实在1327年被烧死在佛罗伦萨的木桩上。他是整个中世纪时期里唯一一个死于火刑的自然哲学家:而他被判死刑是因为,在他因为宣称耶稣基督受控于他的星座命宫而被判异端的假释期间,违反了假释条例。 This is not enough for White who claims, entirely without foundation, that Cecco met his fate partly for the scientific view that the antipodes were inhabited as well as dishonestly calling him an ‘astronomer’ rather than an ‘astrologer’ to strengthen his scientific credentials. 这显然不足以让怀特声称(完全是毫无根据),他的死部分是因为他“对跖点适宜居住”的科学观点。更不必说怀特不诚实将达斯克利称为“天文学家”而不是“占星家”来增强他的科学可信度了。 In the same chapter White claims “In 1316 Peter of Abano, famous as a physician, having promulgated this [the habitation of the antipodes] with other obnoxious doctrines in science, only escaped the Inquisition by death.” We have no good evidence that d’Abano was under investigation from the inquisition at his death. 在同一章里,怀特声称“在1316年,外科医生达巴诺的彼得因传播对跖点和其他有害的科学学说而受到审判,但在审判结束之前意外死亡”。我们没有明确的证据可以表明达巴诺死于审判期间。 However, he did gain a posthumous reputation as a sorcerer when spurious works were attributed to him. This may have led to the reports of his bones being dug up and burnt after his death. There is again, no evidence whatsoever that the antipodes debate or science had anything to do with the matter. 然后,他确实在死后由于一些归于其名下的伪造作品而得到了巫师的名声。这可能也导致了他死后骨头被挖出焚烧的传闻。但是,我们要再一次声明,没有任何证据可以表明对于科学或“对跖点”的争论和他的死有关系。 It is hard to confirm some of White’s victims existed at all. “The chemist John Barrillon was thrown into prison,” he says in chapter 12 “and it was only by the greatest effort that his life was saved.” The great historian of science, George Sarton, with a better knowledge of the sources of anyone before or since, says this episode is ‘completely unknown’ to him. Needless to say, White gives no reference. 我们很难确定怀特所说的一些受害者是否存在。他在第十二章里谈到,“化学家John Barrillon被投入狱,任何努力都救不了他”。而掌握史料前无古人后无来者的杰出历史学家乔治·萨顿(George Sarton)对这件事的回应是,“从未听说过”。不用说,怀特没有给出任何出处。 Vesalius, the founder of modern anatomy, is also held up as a martyr to science. White explains in chapter 13 “Vesalius was charged with dissecting a living man, and, either from direct persecution, as the great majority of authors assert, or from indirect influences, as the recent apologists for Philip II admit, he became a wanderer: on a pilgrimage to the Holy Land, apparently undertaken to atone for his sin, he was shipwrecked, and in the prime of his life and strength he was lost to the world…. His death was hastened, if not caused, by men who conscientiously supposed that he was injuring religion.” 现代解剖学的奠基人维萨里(Vesalius)也常常被认为是科学殉道者。怀特在第十三章中解释道,“维萨里被指控解剖活人。无论是因为绝大多数学者确信的直接迫害,还是因为最近西班牙的腓力二世的辩护者承认的间接迫害,他实际上成了一个要被流放到圣地为自己赎罪的流浪汉。最终正值壮年的他在一次船难中去世。如果说他不是被那些认为他危害宗教的人害死的,也至少是因为他们而少活了很多年。” The trouble is that hardly a word of this has any basis in historical fact. Vesalius did go on a pilgrimage and was drowned on the way back. But there is no hint he was ever prosecuted and the idea his death was hastened by those who supposed he was injuring religion is simply wrong. 这段话的问题在于,没有哪一处是基于历史事实的。维萨里确实去朝圣了,并且在归途中溺水身亡,但是没有任何证据证明他是被害死的。那些认为他的英年早逝是由于他危害宗教的观点是错误的。 Discussing the heliocentric system, White goes on “Many minds had received it [the doctrine of Copernicus], but within the hearing of the papacy only one tongue appears to have dared to utter it clearly. This new warrior was that strange mortal, Giordano Bruno. He was hunted from land to land, until at last he turned on his pursuers with fearful invectives. For this he was entrapped at Venice, imprisoned during six years in the dungeons of the Inquisition at Rome, then burned alive, and his ashes scattered to the winds.” 当讨论到日心说时,怀特接着说,“虽然当时很多人接受了哥白尼的学说,但在教皇的威严下,只有一个人敢于发出自己的声音。这位新勇士是一个奇怪的凡人——乔尔丹诺·布鲁诺(Giordano Bruno),他在各地都被追捕,直到最后,他向对自己恶言相向的追捕者发出还击。为此,他在威尼斯被诱捕入狱,随后被囚禁在罗马地牢里,在审讯中度过了六年。最后他遭受火刑而死,他的骨灰散落在空中。 ” In fact, we do not know the exact reasons Bruno was prosecuted but modern scholars like Frances Yates suggest it was because he was a magus who was trying to start a new neo-Platonic religion. He did believe the earth revolved around the sun but this was purely for religious reasons as he effectively worshipped it. In any case, it was incidental to his fate as were his other pseudo-scientific ideas. 事实上,我们现在仍然不清楚布鲁诺被迫害的具体原因。现代学者如弗朗西斯·耶茨(Frances Yates)认为,那是因为他是一位尝试建立一个新柏拉图主义宗教的术士。他确实相信地球绕着太阳转,但那纯粹是因为他自身的宗教信仰让他相信的。无论如何,日心说跟他的其他伪科学想法一样,都不对他的命运负主要责任。 One would like to take the charitable view that White really believed his theory and was not making up evidence to support a position he knew to be false. Instead, he skews the evidence by accepting that which agrees with his hypothesis while being sceptical of what does not. This means that he has included falsehoods that he would have noticed if he had taken a properly objective attitude towards all his evidence. 我们应该采取一个比较宽厚的看法,相信怀特确实笃信自己的理论,而不是为了维护自己明知错误的立场刻意编造证据。然而,他歪曲了证据,仅接受那些符合他假说的,而质疑那些不符合的。这意味着,如果他以客观的态度对待所有证据,那他就可以避免引入那些他本可发现的错误。 The points given above together with Numbers and Lindberg’s criticisms noted in their article are sufficient, however, to prove White’s work as utterly worthless as history. 以上几点,连同Lindberg和Numbers的批评,已足以证明怀特的作品和普通历史一样是没有价值的。 Draper, with no footnotes or references cannot even claim to give an illusion of scholarship. Colin Russell, in a recent summary of the historiography of the alleged warfare, sums up the views of modern scholarship, saying “Draper takes such liberty with history, perpetuating legends as fact that he is rightly avoided today in serious historical study. The same is nearly as true of White, though his prominent apparatus of prolific footnotes may create a misleading impression of meticulous scholarship”. 至于Drape,他的作品根本没有脚注或者引用来源,我们很难称他是一个学者。Colin Russell在最近一份关于科学与宗教莫须有战争的历史编纂学综述中,总结了现代学者的观点,他说,“Drape解读历史的随意性很大,常常将传说当作史实。这也是他被当今严肃史学研究忽略的原因。White也同样很难被称作是一个合格的学者,尽管他通过丰富的脚注让我们产生了一种严谨学术的错觉”。 But even today, historians who should know better, like Daniel Boorstin, Charles Freeman and William Manchester, have produced popular books that wheel out all the old misconceptions and prejudices. 但即使在今天,像Daniel Boorstin,Charles Freeman还有William Manchester这些本应对此了解更多的历史学家,却还是将老旧的误解和偏见带进自己的通俗作品中。 Another reason for the myth of conflict continuing is because at the moment there is undoubtedly a conflict between one wing of Christianity and modern science. This is the battle over evolution. Although the Catholic Church and mainline protestants long ago reconciled themselves to Darwin’s theory and modified their theology accordingly, many conservative Christians remain deeply suspicious about evolution and its alleged metaphysical implications. 冲突假说持续流行的另一个原因是,当时确实有一支基督教信仰与现代科学产生了一场激烈冲突——关于演化论的争斗。虽然天主教会与主流新教徒在很久之前就调解了神学与达尔文理论之间的矛盾,但很多保守的基督徒仍对演化论及其背后的形而上学暗示表示深深的怀疑。 Unfortunately, many who are defending evolution try to widen the gap between religion and science and use it to push non-scientific but anti-religious philosophical agendas. This can be seen clearly in the work of Richard Dawkins and many writers on the internet. 不幸的是,很多为演化论辩护的人扩大了宗教与科学之间的分歧,并利用它推进了非科学但却反宗教的议程。这可以很明显地在网上从理查德·道金斯(Richard Dawkins)和其他作家的作品中看到。 Some observers would claim that now science holds the whip hand it is being no less intolerant of dissent as the church supposedly once was. This would not be an accurate view as instead the argument over evolution is carried on vehemently by a small number of extremists on both sides while the rest of the community looks on rather bemused. 一些观察者声称,如今处于支配地位的科学执鞭于手、厉对异己的不宽容做派,和人们设想中教会的表现相比,毫不逊色。这当然不是一个准确的看法,因为关于演化论的激烈争论仅仅在一些科学与宗教的极端群体中进行,而大众对于这些讨论则是相当茫然的。 Occasionally, it spills over in a public arena such as when pressure groups gain control of previously obscure bodies that set school curricula, but in general it does not have the slightest effect. Most of the occasions when there have been conflicts between science and religion were caused by someone seeking publicity and fame when the problem could much more easily be sorted by patient discussion. 偶尔,当某个压力集团控制了以前不起眼的学校机构并开始设置课程时,争论会溢出到公共领域,但在一般情况下,这些争论不会对公众有丝毫影响。很多情况下,那些本可通过耐心讨论解决的冲突是由那些寻求名气与曝光度的人引起的。 This is the case both of Galileo publishing his inflammatory popular tracts that provoked the church and John Scopes volunteering to be charged with teaching evolution. Even so, Galileo himself blamed jealous scientific rivals and professional spite for his predicament. 伽利略散发他煽动性的流行小册子从而激怒教会,约翰·斯科普斯(John Scopes)故意去违反法规教授演化论,都是这种情况。即使如此,伽利略仍将自己的困境归咎于那些嫉妒他的科学对手和来自同行的怨恨。 The reasons for the continuing popular belief in the historical conflict can probably be summed up as follows: 有关历史上宗教与科学间冲突的流行信念长盛不衰的原因,大概可以总结如下:
  • The writings of an earlier generation of historians have yet to be eclipsed by modern scholarship;
  • 早期历史学家的著作,其光芒仍未被现代学者掩盖;
  • Some popular writers of today continue to recycle the old myths rather than using up to date research;
  • 当今部分通俗作家不断重复过去的传说而没有采用最新的研究成果;
  • A few famous events have given a misleading impression to people unfamiliar with their context;
  • 一些著名的历史事件给不熟悉历史背景的大众产生了误导;
  • The idea of a conflict makes for a better story than more multi-faceted truth.
  • 冲突观念比多面相的事实更适合写成动听故事。
The real historical relationship between science and religion 历史上科学与宗教间的真实关系 Through out history the real situation has been complicated and changeable. It has not proven possible, and nor is it ever likely to, for a single theory to explain the interaction of all forms of science and all forms of religion. It is certainly true that certain science (say, neo-Darwinist theory) is in conflict with certain kinds of religion (say, literalist Christianity) but even in an environment where both are present the effect is pretty negligible. 纵观历史,真正的局面是复杂且多变的,用某种单一理论来解释所有形式的科学与宗教之间的互动,从未被证明是可能的,或貌似可能的。确实,某些科学分支(比如新达尔文主义理论)与某些宗教派别(比如基督教经律主义)是有冲突的。但即使在它们两者都在场的情况下,这种冲突的影响也是微乎其微的。 For all the sound and fury over the teaching of evolution it is difficult to make any sort of case that science in the US has been adversely effected by creationism. If it means that scientists need to explain the theory of evolution better to suspicious laymen (which is something they are usually poor at doing), creationism could even serve an occasionally useful purpose. 面对演化论教学的喧哗与骚动,神创论很难以任何方式对美国的科学产生不利的影响。甚至有时候神创论可以让科学家们更好地向有疑虑的外行人解释演化论(这件事他们常常做得很差)。 Conversely, cosmology has found itself agreeing with religion rather more than some anti-religious thinkers would like. A hundred years ago nearly all non-religious thinkers took it for granted that the universe had always existed and always would. Despite the opposition of theologians claiming a real infinite in time was logically impossible (sometime called the Kalam cosmological argument), atheists seemed quite happy with an uncreated, eternal universe. 相反,不像某些反宗教思想家所认为的那样,宇宙学则与宗教远更相容。一百年前,几乎所有的非宗教思想家都将宇宙一直存在并且会一直存在下去视作理所当然。尽管持相反意见的神学家声称,真正无限的时间在逻辑上是不可能的(有时被称为卡拉姆宇宙论),无神论者似乎更乐于见到一个非创生的、永恒的宇宙。 When the Big Bang model was first suggested by the Jesuit priest Georges Le Maître, it was greeted with a certain amount of scepticism and the atheist Fred Hoyle coined the phrase ‘Big Bang’ intending it to be derogatory. 当大爆炸模型首次被耶稣会教士勒梅特(Georges Le Maître)提出时,受到了很多质疑,无神论者费雷德·霍伊尔(Fred Hoyle)杜撰“大爆炸”(Big Bang)一词来贬低这个发现。 His atheism also blinded him to the inadequacies of his steady state theory which one suspects he only came up with to avoid the uncomfortable metaphysical implications of a universe with a beginning. Atheist scientists have now come to terms with the big bang and adjusted their metaphysics accordingly, much like most Christians, after some debate, accepted evolution and twiddled their theology. 霍伊尔的无神论思想也使他看不到自己稳恒状态理论(steady state theory)的不足之处。有人怀疑这仅是因为霍伊尔要避免宇宙存在一个开端所带来的令他不舒服的形而上学暗示。如今,无神论科学家已经接受了“大爆炸”这个词,并且相应地调整了他们的形而上学假设;这非常像很多基督徒在经过一番辩论后,接受了进化论并且调整了自己的神学。 However, it is interesting to hear today’s atheists declaring that God must have a creator when their predecessors were quite happy for the universe not to have one. All this seems to demonstrate that when it comes to science, both sides find things they do not like and both sides argue against them until the evidence becomes impossible to deny. 但有趣的是,现在我们听见无神论者声称上帝本身必须有一个创造者,而他们的前辈们却为宇宙没有创造者而感到庆幸。所有这些似乎都表明了当涉及到科学时,双方都找出并反对自己不喜欢的一面,直到证据确凿到实在难以否认为止。 Today popular histories do try and recognise this variety. The people we want to eulogise as the great heroes of science rarely had such clear cut views as was once thought. This has led to what I call the 'examination' school of historical writing that can sometimes read like a series of end of term report cards where the figures of the past are praised or scolded according to how much the modern writer thinks they got right. 今天,通俗史确实在尝试并认可这些多样性。许多为我们所赞扬的科学英雄,很少像人们曾经以为的那样,提出过清晰明确的观点。这就会导致我称之为“考试”学派的历史著述。这些著述有时读起来就像一叠期末汇报卡片,上面写着当今作者认为应该会做的题目,然后他们根据一位历史人物答对了多少,来决定赞美还是贬斥他。 A good example of this approach is John Gribbin’s recent Science: A History 1543 - 2001 (published as The Scientists in the US) which is really just an entertaining collection of anecdotes covered in a positivist gloss. But at least he largely avoids the conflict myth and admits that neither Giordano Bruno nor the anti-Trinitarian Michael Servetus can be described as martyrs for science. 约翰·格里宾(John Gribbin)最近出版的《科学史:1543—2001》(美国版书名为《科学家》)就是一个很好的例子。该书披着实证主义的光彩外衣,其实只是本读起来令人愉悦的奇闻轶事集。但至少,格里宾也很大程度上避免了上述冲突神话,并且承认布鲁诺和反三位一体的米迦勒·塞尔维特(Michael Servetus)都很难称得上是科学殉道者。 Full-on confrontations between science and religion are reasonably rare. Even when such encounters occur, they are usually arguments between co-religionists with shared concerns about how new discoveries affect faith. We find this during the debate that followed the publication of Darwin’s Origin of Species where Christians such as Asa Gray defended both the theory of evolution and Christianity’s accommodation with it. 科学与宗教间的全面冲突是相当罕见的。即使冲突发生了,往往也只是发生在拥有共同信仰的信徒中,他们对于这些新发现将如何影响信仰而展开争论。在达尔文的《物种起源》出版之后便产生了类似的讨论。基督徒阿萨·格雷(Asa Gray)便同时为基督教教义与演化论辩护,并努力使两者协调起来。 Another cause of confusion is when people seeking to attack religion seek to co-opt science onto their side. For instance, whether one is pro-life or not has nothing to do with science, but is often portrayed as such. Concerns about experiments on stem cells also arise from ethics. 混淆的另外一个原因是,当人们攻击宗教的时候,他们往往团结科学站到他们这一边。一个人支持堕胎与否无关科学,但往往就被描述为与科学相关。同样的例子还包括因为伦理道德而引发的对干细胞实验的忧虑。 This leads us straight to the real conflict which is between religion and naturalism. And here the warfare is real enough. Science is partly characterised by methodological naturalism which was used by natural philosophers of the Middle Ages and fully approved by the Church. 这把我们引向宗教与自然主义之间的真实冲突,这里才是交锋真正发生的地方。科学部分地带有方法论自然主义的色彩,这种方法论自然主义在中世纪时期被自然哲学家使用,并且得到了教会的支持。 They realised, as modern naturalists do not, that it is an error of logic to assume that because science assumes naturalism to simplify and explain, it follows that science shows naturalism is true. 当时他们认为(现代自然主义者没有意识到),仅仅因为科学假定自然主义解释简洁就得到“科学证明了自然主义是正确”的这个结论,逻辑上是不正确的。 It is not the purpose of this article to attack the naturalistic fallacy, merely to observe that many of the alleged battles between science and religion are actually being fought by proxy between naturalism and religion, with science as the weapon of both. And, as the defeats of naturalism over the big bang and spontaneous generation showed, the traffic is by no means all one way. 本文的目的不是要攻击自然主义谬误,而是想让人们看到,所谓的科学与宗教之间的冲突,其实是自然主义与宗教双方都利用科学而在他们之间进行的代理战争。而正如自然主义在大爆炸理论和自然发生学说上的失败所显示的,发展进程并非一条单向道。 Most academic historians, while rejecting outright conflict, would refuse to be drawn on whether or not the contribution of religion to science was broadly positive or negative citing the enormous amount of data that would have to be assimilated to give a sensible answer. Most are happy to say that the relationship has been positive in some ways and negative in others with an overall effect that is probably too subtle to be measured. 现在,大多数学院派历史学家并不认为科学与宗教完全站在对立面,也拒绝投身于这样一件事情:通过引证大量数据,从而给出一个敏感答案,并最终在宗教对科学的影响到底大致上是正面的还是负面的这个问题上站队表态。相反,他们会乐于承认两者的关系在某些方面是积极的,在另外一些方面是消极的;总体来说影响微妙,难以估算。 While I respect that cautious view, I believe it is wrong and that a very strong case can be made for the Christian religion be a specific factor in the rise of modern science in Western Europe. This is one of the ideas that I address in my new book God's Philosophers: How the Medieval World Laid the Foundations of Modern Science. 虽然我尊重这个审慎的观点,但我仍相信它是错误的,并认为,我们可以在很强的意义上说:基督教信仰是西欧现代科学兴起的一个重要因素。这也是我在新书《上帝的哲学家:中世纪世界是如何为现代科学奠定基础的》中要表达的一个观点。 (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

政治风向与代际更替

【2015-09-26】

@海德沙龙 【历史钩沉】反法西斯胜利纪念年年有,揭露纳粹暴行的学术和文艺作品也层出不穷,可是另一个远比纳粹更邪恶的系统,却很少得到展示和审视,人们要么假装不记得,要么真的忘了,或者压根没听说过,幸好,还有一小撮历史学家没忘记,Conquest便是其中之一 追忆红色恐怖 http://t.cn/RySY5zn

@whigzhou: 当前英美左风大盛,新工党和新民主党双双埋葬,自称社会主义者已不再是政治自杀,(more...)

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【2015-09-26】 @海德沙龙 【历史钩沉】反法西斯胜利纪念年年有,揭露纳粹暴行的学术和文艺作品也层出不穷,可是另一个远比纳粹更邪恶的系统,却很少得到展示和审视,人们要么假装不记得,要么真的忘了,或者压根没听说过,幸好,还有一小撮历史学家没忘记,Conquest便是其中之一 追忆红色恐怖 http://t.cn/RySY5zn @whigzhou: 当前英美左风大盛,新工党和新民主党双双埋葬,自称社会主义者已不再是政治自杀,这一转向,有人说是金融危机的后果,但依我看,更可能是因为:1975年后出生的人已经成为投票主力,他们1990年时还不懂事,大多没被苏联崩溃前后的场面震惊过…… @whigzhou: 1990年后的全球自由化浪潮中,左派丧失底气,除了某些机构拿不到卢布了这个原因之外,主要还是意识形态全面破产,但有意思的是,这套意识形态在完全没添加什么新鲜玩意儿的情况下,却大有复兴之势,可见,和直观场面相比,道理在政治纷争中确实没多少用  
[译文]追忆红色恐怖

The Great Terror at 40
《大恐怖》四十周年

作者:Robert Conquest @ 2008-04-16
译者:Eartha(@王小贰_Eartha)   校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:Hoover Digest, http://www.hoover.org/research/great-terror-40

In the late Sixties when my book The Great Terror came out, it was still true that, as the great historian François Furet noted, after the war and the demise of fascism, “all the major debates on postwar ideas revolved round a single question: the nature of the Soviet regime.” He adds the paradox that communism had two main embodiments—as a backward despotism and as a constituency in the West that had to be kept unaware of the other’s reality. And, up to the last, this was often accompanied by a view of the Cold War as an even exchange—with the imputation that any denigration of the Soviet regime was due to peace-hating prejudice.

上世纪六十年代后期,我的书《大恐怖》(The Great Terror)刚出版之际,有个论断还是正确的。如著名历史学家弗朗索瓦·傅勒所言,在二战结束与法西斯主义消亡之后,“战后所有的重大理念之争都只围绕着一个问题:苏联政权的本质。”他补充道,共产主义的两大现实是相互矛盾的:一个是落后的专制统治;另一个则是它在西方世界所获得的支持,这些支持者必须对前一项现实保持无知。直到最后,这一悖论通常还伴随了另一种观念,认为冷战是一场公平对抗,将任何对苏联政权的贬斥都归罪于厌恶和平的偏见。

What was the condition of our previous knowledge of Stalinist actuality before, let us say, 1956? We had for decades had a large amount of real information about the purges, all often rejected or ignored, while little truth and much falsehood had emerged from Moscow. However, since 1956, starting with the revelations of Nikita Khrushchev’s Secret Speech it was (or(more...)

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The Great Terror at 40 《大恐怖》四十周年 作者:Robert Conquest @ 2008-04-16 译者:Eartha(@王小贰_Eartha)   校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:Hoover Digest, http://www.hoover.org/research/great-terror-40 In the late Sixties when my book The Great Terror came out, it was still true that, as the great historian François Furet noted, after the war and the demise of fascism, “all the major debates on postwar ideas revolved round a single question: the nature of the Soviet regime.” He adds the paradox that communism had two main embodiments—as a backward despotism and as a constituency in the West that had to be kept unaware of the other’s reality. And, up to the last, this was often accompanied by a view of the Cold War as an even exchange—with the imputation that any denigration of the Soviet regime was due to peace-hating prejudice. 上世纪六十年代后期,我的书《大恐怖》(The Great Terror)刚出版之际,有个论断还是正确的。如著名历史学家弗朗索瓦·傅勒所言,在二战结束与法西斯主义消亡之后,“战后所有的重大理念之争都只围绕着一个问题:苏联政权的本质。”他补充道,共产主义的两大现实是相互矛盾的:一个是落后的专制统治;另一个则是它在西方世界所获得的支持,这些支持者必须对前一项现实保持无知。直到最后,这一悖论通常还伴随了另一种观念,认为冷战是一场公平对抗,将任何对苏联政权的贬斥都归罪于厌恶和平的偏见。 What was the condition of our previous knowledge of Stalinist actuality before, let us say, 1956? We had for decades had a large amount of real information about the purges, all often rejected or ignored, while little truth and much falsehood had emerged from Moscow. However, since 1956, starting with the revelations of Nikita Khrushchev’s Secret Speech it was (or seemed) indisputable that a regime of lies and terror had indeed been in existence. Over the years that followed came the publication of One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich, which, as Galina Vishnevskaya put it, “let the genie out of the bottle, and however hard they tried later, they couldn’t put it back in.” 比如说,1956年之前,我们对斯大林主义的真实状况到底知道多少呢?几十年来,我们拥有大量关于苏联政治清洗的真实资料,却大都不被认可或者被忽视,与此同时只有零星真相和大量谎言从莫斯科传来。但是,自1956年起,以尼基塔•赫鲁晓夫“秘密演讲”所揭露的为开端,这样一个事实已变得(或至少看起来)无可争议:那里早已存在一个由谎言和恐怖维持的政权。之后的数年间,《伊凡·杰尼索维奇的一天》【译注:索尔仁尼琴的一部中篇小说,以作者自己的劳改营生活为素材写成。】出版了,借用卡丽娜·维许涅芙丝卡雅的评价,这本书“将妖怪放出了魔瓶,不管当局之后多么努力,都已无可挽回。” So by 1964 or 1965 it had gradually become plain that a huge gap in history needed to be filled, and that the facts released over the past few years, plus the often denied testimony of some of the regime’s hostile but increasingly justified witnesses, could be put together, if carefully done, to produce a veridical story, a real history. 所以,到1964或1965年,一项清楚的共识逐渐形成:历史有一道鸿沟需要填补,如果将过去几年间揭露的真相,和过去遭否认但现在渐渐变得可信的苏联政权敌对证人的证言放在一起,足够仔细的话,就能呈现出一个真实的故事,一段真实的历史。 1 When my book came out in 1968, the publishers were surprised to have to reprint it time and time again to meet demand. Reviews, from left and right, were almost all very favorable. And it was soon published in most Western languages—and also Hindi, Arabic, Japanese, and Turkish. 我的书于1968年出版之后,出版商们吃惊地发现,需要不停地再版才能满足读者的需求。从左派到右派,几乎所有的书评都表示了赞赏。不久,这本书的译本也纷纷出版,不仅大多数西方语言有译本,还有印地语、阿拉伯语、日语以及土耳其语的译本。 Over the decades that followed, “the period of stagnation” as it became known in Russia, there was little further public addition to our knowledge—or to that of the Soviet citizen. But in those years came many breaches of the official silence. Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn “illegally” gave us The Gulag Archipelago. From Andrei Sakharov came striking interviews and interventions. There was a flowering of samizdat and, to counter it, many arrests (and confinement in penal “psychiatric” wards— as reported by my friend Vladimir Bukovsky and others—as well as the Gulag). 在接下来的几十年中,俄国进入了一个此后被称为“停滞期”的阶段,我们几乎再没得到更多关于苏联政权的公开消息,苏联人民也是如此。但是在那些年间,官方的沉默也几次三番被打破。亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴 “非法地”将《古拉格群岛》传递出来。安德烈·萨哈罗夫【译注:苏联 “苏联氢弹之父”,人权运动家,1975年获诺贝尔和平奖。】则让我们看到了令人震惊的警察询问和干涉【编注:此句原文颇费解,姑作此译】。地下文学出版发行曾经历了一段兴盛期,与之相应的,有很多人因此被逮捕(以及被监禁在刑罚性的“精神病院”——由我的朋友Vladimir Bukovsky及其他人所报道——还有古拉格)。 And there was Roy Medvedev’s Let History Judge—from, what is more, a devoted Leninist: a deeply detailed blow at the Stalin terror. There was a liberalism of the catacombs. Above all, the old falsifications lost credibility among anything describable as an educated class in Russia. The public acceptance of what they knew to be not merely falsehoods, but stupid and long-exposed falsehoods—the mere disgrace of it ate into the morale of even the official intelligentsia, as I remember noting in conversations with Soviet diplomats. Meanwhile, the original 1968 edition of The Great Terror had been published in a Russian version (in Florence, in 1972) and was soon being smuggled into the USSR, where it was welcomed by many outside—and, as we now know, inside—official circles. 还有罗易·梅德韦杰夫的著作《让历史来审判》——特别是它来自一位真挚的列宁主义者,这是对斯大林恐怖统治沉重而细节详尽的一记重击。墓室里也藏着自由主义。尤其是,过去的弄虚作假已在俄国任何可称为受过教育的阶层中丢尽信誉。人们公开接受那些他们明知为错,而且还是愚蠢至极、久已揭露的错误——仅仅是由此产生的耻辱就能侵蚀掉甚至身在朝堂的知识阶层的士气,我记得自己在与苏联外交官的交谈中就有此观感。在此期间,1968初版的《大恐怖》也发行了俄文译本(1972年,在佛罗伦萨),并且不久就被走私到苏联,受到了官员圈子以外的热烈追捧——还有,如我们现在所知,也包括了官圈内部成员。 In the early 1980s came the realization by some in Moscow that the whole regime had become nonviable economically, ecologically, intellectually— and even militarily—largely because of its rejection of reality. When it came to Soviet history, and Stalin’s Terror, there was, as on other themes, some sharp disagreement in the Politburo—later to produce the attempted coup of 1991. The highest leadership itself had not managed to find the facts about the fate of its own relatives! It is only years later that records of these disputes have been published. 1980年代初期,莫斯科的一些人终于意识到,整个政权在经济层面、生态层面、智力层面——甚至是军事层面——无法继续维持下去的主要原因是它自身对现实的拒绝。当谈及苏联历史和斯大林的恐怖统治时,如同谈及其它一些议题一样,政治局中存在着尖锐的分歧——后来还曾引发了1991年的未遂政变。甚至连苏联最高领导层都弄不清楚有关其亲属下落的事实!数年后,有关这些争论的记录才被公开出版。 One finds Mikhail Gorbachev telling his colleagues, “Millions rehabilitated— that is the great service done by Nikita Khrushchev.” Why did this “stop short?” he asked. “Because Khrushchev too had blood on his hands.” As to his successors, they had done their best to keep the truth unknown: “Under Brezhnev, under Andropov, under Chernenko, even members of the Politburo had no information.” As to what followed, Stalin’s “use of the Kirov murder to bring in repression,” the only motive was “the struggle for power.” And Gorbachev adds: “Plots against him—that’s all rubbish (chepukkha).” 我们看到,米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫曾对他的同僚说,“数百万人被平反了——这是由尼基塔•赫鲁晓夫完成的伟大贡献。”但为什么又“突然停下了呢?”他问道。“因为赫鲁晓夫的双手也沾满鲜血。”而他的继任者们则尽其所能隐瞒真相:在勃列日涅夫、安德罗波夫、契尔年科治下,甚至连某些政治局成员都不知道相关信息。”正如戈尔巴乔夫接下来所说的,斯大林“借基洛夫谋杀案实行镇压”的唯一动机就是“夺取权力”。”他还补充道:“针对他的阴谋——那全是胡说八道(chepukkha)。” “And this was Stalin,” Gorbachev told his colleagues. “How can that be accepted, let alone forgiven?” “这就是斯大林,”戈尔巴乔夫对他的同僚们说道。“这怎么可能被接受,更何谈原谅?” He then speaks of “3 million sentenced, and that the most active part of the nation. A million shot. And that is not counting the share of dekulakization and the fate of people at the time of deportations. And this was Stalin. How can that be accepted, let alone forgiven?” 他接着谈到了,“三百万人被判刑,而这些人正是这个国家最有活力的那部分。一百万人被枪毙了,这还没算上反富农斗争所造成的死亡人数和当时被流放者的命运。这就是斯大林。这怎么可能被接受,更何谈原谅?” This was not for publication. But the whole direction of glasnost, amongst other things, brought a mass of officially banned knowledge out of hiding. The first public mention in Russia of my book was when Katrina vanden Heuvel interviewed me for Moskovskie Novosti in April 1989. 这些本不会被公开。但是,在公开性政策等的大方向指引之下,大量官方封禁的内幕得见天日。俄国对我的著作的首次公开提及,是在1989年4月,《莫斯科新闻报》发表了记者Katrina vanden Heuvel对我的采访。 When I was in Moscow later that year, it was all over. Through the decade there had been little reply to the book from the party establishment. But now the Stalinist writer Aleksandr Chakovsky called me “anti-Sovietchik number one” at the last plenum of the Central Committee. By that time the Russian edition was being serialized (in a million copies each month) in Neva. 那一年再晚些时候,我正呆在莫斯科,一切都结束了。十年来,当权政党对这本书的回应微乎其微。但是现在,斯大林主义作家Aleksandr Chakovsky在中央委员会最后一次全体会议把我称作的“头号反苏联者”。那时候,俄文版《大恐怖》正在《涅瓦》杂志上连载(该刊月发行量一百万份)。 The new openness had produced so much new material that it became possible, and even necessary, to produce a new edition of this book. The Great Terror: A Reassessment was published in 1990. Over the next four or five years, I was welcomed in Russia, making many friends, speaking to cultural and other groups and at conferences hosted by the Soviet Foreign Ministry. 新采取的公开性政策带来了如此多的新材料,使得为这本书重写一个新版本不仅是可能的,也是必须的。《大恐怖:重新评估》于1990年出版。在接下来的四、五年间,我受到了俄国的欢迎,结交了新朋友,向文化类与其它性质的团体发表讲话,还参与了由苏联外交部主办的研讨会。 Going into Izvestiya to collect payment for a contribution to a Moscow journal, I saw a portrait of Nikolai Bukharin (purged and executed in 1938) hanging alongside those of the other former editors. I spent some weeks being filmed there for the documentary series Red Empire, made by Granada Television. As I encountered those I had met earlier abroad, it was hard not to relish Andrei Voznesensky’s saying he could hardly believe I was there: could he pinch me to make sure? 在我前往《消息报》为我向莫斯科一家刊物的投稿领取稿酬时,我看到尼古拉·布哈林的画像(于1938年遭清洗、处决)与历任主编的画像挂在一起。我在莫斯科停留了几周,参与摄制了由格拉纳达电视台制作的系列纪录片《红色帝国》。当我在那儿与此前曾在国外见过的人相见时,安德烈·沃兹涅先斯基的说法就很容易引起我的回味,他说他真不敢相信我会出现在那里:他能够打我几拳来确认吗? The information now available established the story clearly as to historical essentials, and in a generally correct way as to almost all crucial details. But we were soon like modern historians of an ancient empire who have had to rely on a few inscriptions, some only recently deciphered, when a huge store of firsthand records is discovered under some pyramid. It was enough for generations of archaeologists. . . . So eventually we come to the 2008 edition. 现在,可用的资料已然建构起整个故事,基础史实清晰,几乎所有的重要细节总体上都是正确的。但是很快,我们就像是研究古代帝国的现代历史学家了,本来一直依赖着一点点的碑文,其中一些还是最近才被破译的,忽然有天却从某个金字塔底下发现了大量的一手记录。这些记录足够好几代的考古学家去研究了……所以最后我们看到了2008版的《大恐怖》。 2 By far the most substantial additions, or amendments, to our knowledge have been the set of decrees on “Mass Operations” in 1937–38. The lists of those sentenced by the Military Collegium were sent to Stalin, and given his approval, with only a few Politburo members also signing. 到目前为止,对我们的认知产生了最实质的补充或者修正的,就是1937-1938“集体处决”的一系列判决了【编注:这次“大行动”是指1936-1938年大清洗期间由苏联内务人民委员会(NKVD)实施的一系列针对特定类别人群(比如富农、少数民族、外国人)的行动,共导致一百多万人被逮捕,数十万人被处决】。被苏联最高法院军事委员会审判的人,人员名单会递交给斯大林,获得他的批准和仅少许几个政治局成员的签字。【编注:大清洗期间经斯大林亲自签令处决的,据统计有681,692人。】 Nor did this informal leadership group have much time to spare. Records show that they had to make so many decisions on other urgent matters of policy that these terror orders were usually handled in twenty or thirty minutes. But when it comes to the Mass Operations, one finds that the number of victims in these accounted for nearly twenty times the number of victims of the Military Collegium and other lesser tribunals. 但这个非正式的领导小组也抽不出太多时间。记录显示,还有很多紧迫的其他政策事项需要他们做出决定,以至于这些恐怖命令通常在二、三十分钟内就被解决了。但到了“集体处决”阶段,我们发现,受难者的数量几乎是被军事委员会或其他次级法庭判刑的受难者的二十倍。 The mass terror was ordered in detail from the top, and was directed, with the numbers to be repressed laid down for each province and republic, for each stratum of the population—with individual crimes of terrorism, espionage, and so on added later by the local troika—and the lists of names then submitted to Moscow for final approval. 大恐怖是细致地自上而下要求的,各省、各共和国和各个阶层都受指定的镇压人数指导——个人犯下的恐怖主义活动罪、间谍罪及后来由当地三人领导小组增加的罪行——接着,罪犯名单就会递交给莫斯科以获得最终批准。 That is to say, the strata were condemned as such, and the mass terror was seen as a removal of all that seemed unassimilable to the Stalinist order. Stalin’s mass action against a section of the population was thus taken on “ideological” grounds, merely disguising it as a purge of terrorists, spies, and saboteurs necessary to the safety and survival of the regime. 换言之,社会阶层是因其存在本身而被定罪的,大恐怖行动可以看做是一项清除所有被认为无法被斯大林秩序同化的群体的行动。因此,斯大林针对该国人口的一部分所采取的大规模行动是出于“意识形态”基础,只是伪装成了为保证政权的安全和生存,对恐怖分子、间谍和破坏分子的肃清。 In the 2008 edition we have much new material on the personalities and activities of the key secret police operators and of the whole mechanism of terror. 2008年的版本中,我们增加了许多新材料,主要是关于秘密警察中核心人物的活动与性格,以及大恐怖的整体运作机制。 My book has been faulted for giving too little attention to the context of Russia and of the Russian historical and mental backgrounds. We find what seem to be contradictions. Any reader of the country’s great literature may feel an especially Russian humanism arising from the depths of the “national character.” 我的书有所不足,对俄国当时所处的历史情境、俄国的历史背景与精神背景给予的关注太少。我们发现了其中的一些矛盾。读过该国伟大文学的读者也许能从他们的“民族性格”深处感受到一种俄式人文主义。 On the other hand, Ronald Hingley (in his classic The Russian Mind) saw the fictional and the real Russian as living in great dullness interspersed with, or accompanying, extreme outbursts, but also possessed by a view of the country’s past and present as deplorable yet containing as recompense a wonderful future with some sort of national glory compensating for everything. A complementary trait often reported is the fear that a Russian, or Russia, is being deceived or cheated—the sort of thing we see in Nikolai Gogol’s Dead Souls and in Soviet xenophobia. 但另一方面,罗纳德·辛格雷(在他的杰作《俄罗斯心智》中)看见的却是虚构的、真实的俄国人生活在极度的无聊之中,点缀或伴随着极端的爆发。不仅如此,他们的头脑中同时也有一种观念,认为整个国家的过去和现在是恶劣的,但也相信会有个美好的未来作为补偿,那时某种国家荣誉将能弥补一切。而经常报道的一种相关特性是,一种对俄罗斯人或俄罗斯正在遭受欺骗的恐惧——从尼古莱·果戈理的《死魂灵》和苏联的仇外主义中可见一斑。 But this does downgrade Russia’s other options—liberalism or pluralism. As Boris Pasternak put it, in the 1880s came “the birth of an enlightened and affluent middle class, open to occidental influences, progressive, intelligent, artistic.” There are many historical and modern examples of this more “Western” style of thought in Russia, deep-set, and though often disenchanted continuing to present a more viable and civilized future. The present leadership has, at least to a large extent, given up Soviet-type economics. 但这的确低估了俄罗斯的其他选择——自由主义或者多元主义。举Boris Pasternak所言为例,1880年代“开化、富裕的中产阶级开始出现,他们愿意接纳西方影响,进步、睿智并且富有艺术气息。”纵观俄罗斯古今历史,这样的例子能够举出很多。这种更为“西式”的思想风格是根深蒂固的,尽管经常幻灭,但仍持续代表着一个具有更高可行性与文明度的未来。现在的领导层,至少在很大程度上,已经放弃了苏联模式的经济。 But one can have “reform” without liberalism— as with Peter the Great and Pyotr Stolypin. Above all, we are still far from the rule of law—much more important than “democracy.” As elsewhere, the problem seems to be to free the idea of the “nation” from both archaic barbarism and from the more recently bankrupted verbalisms that have partly melded into it. 但是,一个政权是可以不走自由主义道路而完成改革的——比如彼得大帝与彼得·斯托雷平所做的那样。毕竟,现今的俄罗斯还远没有做到法治——这比“民主”更为重要。和别处一样,问题似乎在于要将“国家”这一观念从陈旧的野蛮中解放出来,同时也从已部分融入其中、但不久前已破产的空洞教条中解放出来。 The history of the period covered by The Great Terror sees the enforcement of Stalin’s totally intolerant belief system—with terror as the decisive argument. Terror means terrorizing. Mass terror means terrorizing the whole population, and must be accompanied by the most complete public exposure of the worst enemies of the people, of the party line, and so of the truth. We know the results. One of the strangest notions put forward about Stalinism is that in the interests of “objectivity” we must be—wait for it—“nonjudgmental.” But to ignore, or downplay, the realities of Soviet history is itself a judgment, and a very misleading one. 《大恐怖》中提及的历史时期,见证了斯大林彻底不容异己的思想体制的贯彻过程——恐怖就是这一体制的硬道理。恐怖意味着施加恐吓,大恐怖则意味着对全体国民施加恐吓,同时必然伴随着对人民和政党的死敌,因此也是真理的死敌的最全面、公开的揭露。我们知道这样做的后果。对于斯大林主义,人们提出的最怪异的概念之一是,为了“客观性”,我们必须做到——听好了——“不加评判”。但是,刻意忽视或淡化苏联历史的实情,这本身就是一个评判,并且还是极具误导性的那种。 (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

用科学去塑造人

【2015-09-23】

@Ent_evo “用科学去塑造人,而不是让他们自然成长,这种想法让我们震惊……但这种想法当然是非理性的。……孩子所聆听的道德训诫,可能因为不科学而没有成效,但其意图也是塑造性格,就像赫胥黎笔下的耳语机器一样。因此,看起来我们并不反对塑造人,只要它很低效就行;我们反对的只是高效的塑造。”-罗素

@whigzhou: 罗素一谈社会就幼稚的一塌糊涂,也不想想,谁有资格塑造人?怎么算高效?目标不明怎么算效率?“用科学塑造人”又是什么意思?把(more...)

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【2015-09-23】 @Ent_evo “用科学去塑造人,而不是让他们自然成长,这种想法让我们震惊……但这种想法当然是非理性的。……孩子所聆听的道德训诫,可能因为不科学而没有成效,但其意图也是塑造性格,就像赫胥黎笔下的耳语机器一样。因此,看起来我们并不反对塑造人,只要它很低效就行;我们反对的只是高效的塑造。”-罗素 @whigzhou: 罗素一谈社会就幼稚的一塌糊涂,也不想想,谁有资格塑造人?怎么算高效?目标不明怎么算效率?“用科学塑造人”又是什么意思?把孩子泡在一堆论文里?万一科学研究发现泡在传统里更“高效”呢? @陈胡子伯爵:感觉你没明白罗素的意思,科学的培养是指用科学的方法培养而不是让孩子读科学论文。 @whigzhou: 1)你的脑补是你的,我不喜欢替人脑补,2)假设你的脑补成立,那么,将“科学方法”和传统方法对立起来之前,你先得证明“把孩子泡在传统/习俗/宗教里”的培养方法是不科学的 @whigzhou: 我尤其不喜欢替分析哲学家脑补,作为分析哲学家,有义务自己把话说清楚  
[译文]德国就业率何以独步欧洲?

German success is surprisingly recent
德国的就业奇迹其实很晚才出现

作者: Scott Sumner @ 2014­-4-­22
译者:bear     校对:小册子
来源:Economics Liberty, http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/04/german_success.html

Many people assume that Germany has long been an economic success story. It was certainly successful back in the 1950s and 1960s. But as recently as 2004 it was widely viewed as the “sick man of Europe” despite all those sleek BMWs and Mercedes they churn out each year.

许多人认为德国经济长期以来都很成功。在上世纪五十年代和六十年代,它的确是成功的。但近至2004年,德国还被广泛认为是“欧洲病人”,尽管它每年都大量产出豪华的宝马和奔驰。

The normally reliable Matt Yglesias falls into the trap of (implicitly) assuming long term German success in a piece on youth unemployment. Yglesias tries to explain the low rate of youth unemployment by pointing to their system of technical training for students that are not college bound. That certainly seems like a fine system, but it’s been around for decades, and thus can hardly explain the amazing post-2004 German jobs miracle. Why do I use the term ‘miracle’? Consider:

  1. Germany was hit roughly as hard by the 2008-09 recession as the US.
  2. Unlike the US, the German working age population is not growing.

(more...)

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German success is surprisingly recent 德国的就业奇迹其实很晚才出现 作者: Scott Sumner @ 2014­-4-­22 译者:bear     校对:小册子 来源:Economics Liberty, http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/04/german_success.html Many people assume that Germany has long been an economic success story. It was certainly successful back in the 1950s and 1960s. But as recently as 2004 it was widely viewed as the "sick man of Europe" despite all those sleek BMWs and Mercedes they churn out each year. 许多人认为德国经济长期以来都很成功。在上世纪五十年代和六十年代,它的确是成功的。但近至2004年,德国还被广泛认为是“欧洲病人”,尽管它每年都大量产出豪华的宝马和奔驰。 The normally reliable Matt Yglesias falls into the trap of (implicitly) assuming long term German success in a piece on youth unemployment. Yglesias tries to explain the low rate of youth unemployment by pointing to their system of technical training for students that are not college bound. That certainly seems like a fine system, but it's been around for decades, and thus can hardly explain the amazing post-2004 German jobs miracle. Why do I use the term 'miracle'? Consider:
  1. Germany was hit roughly as hard by the 2008-09 recession as the US.
  2. Unlike the US, the German working age population is not growing.
连通常比较靠谱的Matthew Yglesias【译注:著名博客作家,擅长写经济和政治话题】也掉进了这个圈套,他在一篇描写年轻人失业问题的文章里(隐含地)预设了德国长期成功这一前提。Yglesias试图将(德国)年轻人的低失业率归功于不以升读大学为目标的学生技术培训系统。这个系统看上去当然很好,但它已经运作了几十年了,因此很难用它来解释2004年以后德国令人惊讶的就业奇迹。为什么我用“奇迹”这词? 试想:
  1. 德国在2008-09年的经济衰退中受到的沉重打击和美国大致相当。
  2. 不同于美国,德国就业适龄人口并没有增长。
Put those two together and you'd expect very little German job creation in recent years. And yet German employment has risen by 6% over the past 6 years, whereas American employment has declined, despite a RGDP recovery that is far more brisk than the eurozone, indeed faster than in Germany. That's pretty amazing. 考虑到这两点,你会预期近年来德国的新增职位会很少。但德国的雇佣人数在过去六年已经提升了6%,而美国的雇佣数则在下降,尽管美国实际GDP的复苏比欧元区快得多——确实比德国快。这是非常令人惊奇的。 I sometimes wonder how progressive readers would filter Yglesias's message. The type that thinks that if a program works in Sweden it would certainly work over here. The ones that Paul Krugman insists are "reality based" in their thinking. German job training seems good, and Obama has recommended some programs for America. The highly inegalitarian German high school system might make American progressives squirm, but Yglesias reassures them that this approach would be hard to implement in a country that lacks the tight cooperation between companies, unions and local governments. 我有时会怀疑进步主义读者是怎样看待Yglesias的看法的。这类人认为如果一套方案在瑞典奏效,那它在别处也会,Paul Krugman坚定地认为这些人是“基于事实”来思考的。德国的职业培训看上去做得不错,奥巴马也已经建议在美国施行一些类似的方案。德国那种高度分化、区别对待的高中教育系统可能会让美国进步主义者不舒服,但Yglesias向他们担保,德国的做法在公司、工会和地方政府缺乏紧密合作的国家很难实施。 Of course none of this has anything to do with explaining how Germany went from being the sick man of Europe to its shining star, all in a period of 10 years. Here's the German unemployment rate since 1960. Notice that Germany had 8% unemployment as far back as the mid-1980s, during the Reagan boom in America. Things had been getting worse for decades, and the 1980s figures suggest that the problem wasn't just German reunification. 当然这些都无法解释德国是怎样在十年间从欧洲病人转变成璀璨明星的。下图显示的是德国自1960年以来的失业率。在里根振兴美国的八十年代中期,德国的失业率为8%。数十年来每况愈下,而八十年代的数据说明,这个问题并非仅仅是两德统一导致的。 Screen Shot 2014-04-20 at 9.48.17 AM So what's the real explanation for the German success? That's pretty obvious; the Hartz reforms of 2003 sharply reduced the incentive to not work, and sharply increased the incentive to take low wage jobs. As a result, today Germany has lots of very low wage jobs of the type that would be illegal in France or California. (Germany has no minimum wage.) Here is the Guardian: 那德国成功的真正原因是什么呢?显然是因为:2003年的哈茨改革方案急剧减低了鼓励人们不工作的诱因,同时急剧增加了接受低薪工作的激励。【译注:哈茨方案是德国政府于2002-2005年逐步推行的,针对失业人口调整救济内容、培训和促进再就业的社会改革方案,共有哈茨一号到哈茨四号四个方案。其中哈茨四号凶残地削减了失业者的福利。】结果今天德国有大量非常低薪的工作,低到在法国或加州会被视为违法的程度(德国没有最低工资法)。下面是《卫报》的报道:
Exactly 10 years ago today, Germany's labour market was subjected to the first of the so-called Hartz IV reforms. Brought about by the smooth centre-left chancellor Gerhard Schröder, it was a watershed moment that changed the way the German government deals with poverty. 正好是十年前的今天,德国的劳动市场施行了所谓哈茨四段改革的第一阶段。改革由作风温和、中间偏左的德国总理施罗德推行,这是德国政府处理贫困问题的政策分水岭。 The changes were riddled with the kind of Anglicisms that German officialdom likes to deploy for any modernisation. In the past decade, unemployed Germans have been bewildered with a kaleidoscope of new "Denglish" terms, from "Jobcenter" to "Personal Service Agentur" to "Mini-Job" to "BridgeSystem". But the measures recommended by the Hartz commission - named after its chairman, former Volkswagen executive Peter Hartz - boiled to down to this: the bundling of unemployment benefits and social welfare benefits into one neat package. 这些变化充满了英国范儿——德国官僚总喜欢为现代化搞点花样。在过去十年里,德国的失业者们被五花八门的新德式英语名词搞得晕头转向,从“就业中心”("Jobcenter")到“个人服务中介”("Personal Service Agentur")到“迷你工作”("Mini-Job")到“桥接系统”("BridgeSystem")。但这些由哈茨委员会推荐的措施——以该委员会主席、前大众汽车公司执行官Peter Hartz命名——可归结为:把失业津贴和社会福利捆绑到一个简洁的方案中。 The immediate effect was to leave those living on benefits worse off (as of 2013, the standard rate for a single person is €382 a month, plus the cost of "adequate housing" and healthcare). But the new element that brought the most profound change was the contract, drawn up between the "jobseeker" and the "Jobcenter", which defined what each party promised to do to get the jobseeker back on somebody's payroll. This was coupled with "sanctions" - in other words, benefit cuts - if the jobseeker failed to keep up his or her side of the bargain. With those two measures, Germany came to accept the modern interpretation of the word "incentive" in the job market: the doctrine that poor people will only work if they are they are not given money. 该措施的直接效果是令那些靠社会保障过活的人生活水平恶化(到2013年,个人的标准社会保障是每月382欧元,再加上“适宜居所”和医保的补贴)。但带来最深远影响的是待业者和“就业中心”之间的合同,这份合同订明了为让当事人能回到工作岗位上,双方承诺履行的义务。当一个待业者没有履行承诺的时候是有惩罚措施的——也就是减少福利。凭着这两项措施,德国开始接受“激励”在劳动市场上的现代解释:穷人拿不到钱才会去工作的学说。 There are myriad debates about the net results or benefits of the Hartz reforms. Unemployment, both long-term and short-term, has certainly dropped considerably in Germany since 1 January 2003, but critics say that's only because most jobless people are forced to accept the next job they can find - and often they end up in one so low-paid and part-time that they were still dependent on some sort of state welfare anyway. Then again, the flexibility that allows employers - especially major industrial companies - to take on and lay off part-time shift workers depending on the state of the export market has certainly helped Germany to ride out the global economic crisis in the past three years. 关于哈茨改革方案的最终结果或效益有着无数争论。自从2003年1月1日以来,德国的长期和短期失业率肯定都显著下降了,但批评者说这仅仅是因为失业者被迫接受他们所能找到的下一份工作,这往往是一份低薪的兼职工作,因此他们多少还是要靠政府救济。但是需要再次强调的是,这使得雇主——尤其是大型的实业公司——可以根据出口市场的状况灵活地雇佣或解雇兼职轮班职工。这肯定对德国安然度过过去三年的经济危机有帮助。 But what is hard to overlook is that the Hartz reforms have had two social effects. First, they have helped to accelerate inequality in Germany. According to an April 2012 OECD report, "Germany is the only [EU] country that has seen an increase in labour earnings inequality from the mid 1990s to the end 2000s driven by increasing inequality in the bottom half of the distribution." The report goes on to point to "a set of reforms in 2003 meant to increase the flexibility of the labour market" which help to explain the "wage moderation". 但是哈茨方案的两个社会影响也很难被忽视。首先,方案加速了德国的收入不均。根据一份经合组织(OECD)在2012年4月发布的报告,“从1990年代中期到2000年代末,德国是欧洲唯一一个劳动收入不均在扩大的国家,这是由社会下半层的收入不均等加剧导致的。”这份报告继续指出,“2003年的一系列改革旨在令劳动市场的灵活性增加”,这部分解释了“工资停滞”。
So the one major success story among developed countries has achieved its success by doing essentially the exact opposite of what progressives want. Germany has no minimum wage, reduced its incentives to live off welfare, and has a level of wage inequality that is increasing even faster than in the US. It's no wonder that progressives prefer to focus on things like "vocational training programs," which were just as common during the 30-year period of steadily rising German unemployment. 所以,这一发达国家中最重大的成功故事之一,恰恰是通过和进步主义的愿望完全相反的方式做到的。德国没有最低工资法,降低了靠福利过活的激励,而且工资不均等的扩大比美国还快。进步主义者倾向于关注“职业培训计划”这类事一点也不让人奇怪,尽管这个计划在德国失业率稳定上升的30年间也一样存在。 And yet Paul Krugman can say the following without blushing: 然而,Paul Krugman还是可以脸不红心不跳地说这样的话:
Just to be clear: Yes, you can find examples where *some* liberals got off on a hobbyhorse of one kind or another, or where the liberal conventional wisdom turned out wrong. But you don't see the kind of lockstep rejection of evidence that we see over and over again on the right. Where is the liberal equivalent of the near-uniform conservative rejection of climate science, or the refusal to admit that Obamacare is in fact reaching a lot of previously uninsured Americans? 要说清楚的是:是的,你可以找到一些自由派这样那样老调重弹的例子,或是自由派的传统看法被证明是错误的例子。但你不会看到我们全体一致地否定右派不断强调的那些证据。哪里有自由派做过保守派那样几乎统一地反对气象科学的这种事,或是他们拒绝承认奥巴马医改事实上帮助了很多原本没有医保的美国人的这种事?
Here's an example for Krugman. Much of the progressive movement seems entranced by a pied piper from France who thinks inequality can be reduced almost costlessly, and that even France needs to be much more socialist. Meanwhile they almost totally ignore a highly successful social market economy. The biggest economy in Europe. What would Al Gore call German labor market policy success? An inconvenient truth? 现在我就给了Krugman一个这样的例子。似乎很多进步主义运动都是受来自法国的彩衣魔笛手 (Pied Piper)【译注:彩衣魔笛手源自于一个德国民间故事,他的笛声带有魔力,可以诱使孩子们跟着他走。】鼓动,认为不均等的改善几乎没有成本,认为连法国都需要变得更加社会主义。与此同时,他们几乎完全无视一个政府积极干预的社会市场经济的高度成功案例。那可是欧洲最大的经济体。Al Gore会怎么看待德国劳动市场政策的成功呢?一个讨厌的真相? (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

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