【2016-06-26】 @高寒老师和考官:Brexit三大诉求：控制欧盟移民，不给EU预算，废除EU法规。您觉得谈判结果对英国有利吗？我感到悲观。1现在EFTA四个国家都接受人口自由流动，瑞士14年公投反对暂未实施；2挪威瑞士都缴纳EU预算，比英国少缴17%和58%；3均部分接受欧盟法规。 @whigzhou: 那要看下届英国政府打算往哪个方向走 @whigzhou: 以及他们得到反应是否积极。A）假如下届政府打算朝封闭方向走，总归是死路，B）若想朝自由与开放的方向走，那么，B1）谈EFTA，那么，B1.1）未遭排斥，结果不会比留欧差，B1.2）遭排斥，转B2，B2）到欧洲外面找出路，加入北美自由贸易区，与澳新恢复自由贸易，印度缅甸新加坡，等等， @whigzhou: 总之，离开欧盟单一壁垒，很多大门开放了，只要真愿意往自由方向走，机会多的是 @whigzhou: 下任美国总统的态度也很重要，这一点不是很乐观 @whigzhou: 无论哪条路，谈判和立法过程都要好多年，这期间说不定波兰匈牙利奥地利已经被欧盟开除了，到时候英国拉一个新欧洲同盟也不是没可能 @高寒老师和考官:唉，这下只剩信念了。我觉得商人和投资者最怕uncertainty，英国估计得皮软几年，国家不会崩盘吧 @whigzhou: 大的转向哪有不吃几年苦的？当年新西兰被哐嘡一记关在英国市场外面，几近崩溃，现在怎么样？苏格兰是会离，不脱欧也会离，也不算什么坏事 @whigzhou: 基本的判断是欧盟这条船正在沉，没有这个共识，当然想不到一起，余下都是废话了。 @剪刀手霍德华:周老师对这次公投表现出来的老年人决定年轻人命运的情形怎么看？ @whigzhou: 老人相对懂事一点，幸亏有他们拉着，不然科宾就是下任首相桑德斯就是下届总统了 【2016-06-30】 @whigzhou: 从最新情况看，我能想到的最可能前景是：欧元资产贬值/劣化→希腊彻底崩盘→其他南欧国家告急→德国出于迫切需要的欧洲团结决定出大血救助→德国选民不高兴，换上疏欧政府→英国带着庆幸和一丝窃喜加速逃跑→欧元资产外逃，伦敦是主要避难地→欧元区实施资本流动管制→欧元区大萧条→南欧退出…… @whigzhou: 现有制度结构下，希腊问题（乃至整个南欧问题）不可能解决，1870年代英国为了解决埃及债务问题，把埃及变成了保护国，而德国显然没办法把希腊变成自己的保护国，就算人家连选18个无赖上来你也没辙。  

【2016-06-28】 @whigzhou: 没有什么不言而喻的、先验的、普适的、永恒的、自动确立的价值，即所谓普世价值，只有从某些特定社会开始的，在某些特殊文化背景在孕育的，经由某条特定历史路径而被特定共同体接受的，并且仍然需要特定文化条件支撑的特殊价值。 @whigzhou: 当然，幸运的话，你可以努力推行你所珍爱的那套特殊价值，帮助它取得主导地位，令其普及于世，但这不是普世主义者说的普世价值。 @不知说些啥168: 人不能吃人肉是不是普世价值？ @whigzhou: 当然不是，除非你把以往众多食人族统统开除人籍 @whigzhou: 人文主义/启蒙主义/进步主义者曾（自觉或不自觉的）将普适价值论用作推行其特殊价值的策略工具，以为将其宣扬为普世价值，会为自己的推行措施赋予合法性和说服力，有时确有如此效果，但更多时候那只会带来失败，因为要让人相信普世价值，必须对人性和文化持一种不切实际的乐观假定。 @whigzhou: 反殖民主义，威尔逊主义，联合国，非洲悲剧，阿拉伯之春，都是这一虚幻假定的产物，在天真民主派看来，只要拿掉坏蛋和暴君，移除障碍，热爱普世价值的人民便会自动建立美好家园 @whigzhou: 普世主义祸害极深，其内在困境在当前西方的共同体危机中已暴露无遗 @絮落红尘: 但一旦论点提出就自然有普世化倾向，否则说什么都加上一句所说不具有普遍性，这不是等于说了废话… @whigzhou: 既然是默认前提，都可以省略，比如我是『狗肉好吃』当然默认是指『我觉得狗肉好吃』而不是『你们都该觉得狗肉好吃，不觉得不是人』 @疯旗Virus: 那你们是如何判断一件事情是好的还是不好的呢？又是如何使一个族群接受的呢？ @whigzhou: 特殊价值论不是价值虚无论，作为个体，你当然会持有某种特殊价值观，可以让你基于此而做判断 @构成单恋寂: 价值相对算不算一种普世价值 @whigzhou: 现实中的相对主义实际上是自我否定主义，特殊主义者承认存在不同价值体系，同时坚持自己的价值体系，相对主义者也承认存在不同价值体系，同时抛弃、否定、贬低自己所在共同体的价值体系，在西方白左中，相对主义表现为反西方、反现代、反文明 @只配叫猪_: 加了这么多规定，还是一般所言的普世价值吗。各种特殊价值之间有没有交集呢，这个交集是不是普世价值？ @whigzhou: 据我所知，没多少人如此理解普世价值 @只配叫猪_: 两种特殊价值的群体间是否可能订立契约，订约的共同理念基础是否是普世价值？如果人类文明存在趋势，主导趋势的理念是否可称为普世价值？ @whigzhou: 契约可以扩大共同体，推行某种特殊价值，但此类努力从未达到过近乎于普世的程度，远远没有 @只配叫猪_: 如果人类文明存在趋势，主导趋势的理念是否可称为普世价值？ @whigzhou: 历史或许表现出了某种趋势，但不是历史决定论意义上的必然，而『不言而喻、先验、自动确立』要求或暗示着这种必然性 @只配叫猪_:殖民和这个是什么关系呢 @whigzhou: 如果我们相信自己所珍爱价值是普世的，那就可以指望其他共同体一有机会便欣然接受它，反之，我们只能努力让自己的共同体处于支配地位，才能确保我们的价值观得以盛行，至少安全存在下去 @只配叫猪_:我指的是双方订约所需的共同理念基础，至少守诺是双方都要认可的 @whigzhou: 契约关系的维持需要一大套价值观的保障，这组价值本身就是非常特殊的，远远没有接近过普世的程度 @whigzhou: 通俗的说，我们特殊主义者不自作多情，我们热爱自由，但不一厢情愿的以为别人也都热爱自由，所以为了确保自由，我们需要谋求或维持自由共同体的强大 @whigzhou: 你们不妨暂时离开你们通过自我选择而为自己构建的信息环境，随便找些小区居民问问，有几个把个人自由放在其价值序列靠前位置的？你们也可以去了解一下各民族的传统文化，有几个把个人自由视为重要价值的？ @窝头没吃饱:辉格老师觉得自然法是不存在的吗？ @whigzhou: 是的，洛克意义上的自然法不存在，哈耶克意义上的自然法（如果可以这么叫的话）存在，两者的区分见旧文《（自然法vs实证法）vs（先验vs经验）》，另外还可参见我的《罗斯巴德批判》前两篇 @人造史诗:《独立宣言》第一句就是普世价值啊。我们认为下面这些真理是不言而喻的:人人生而平等,造物主赋予…… @whigzhou: 像独立宣言这样的政治文件，不能指望他的严谨性，无论是道德哲学的，法学的，还是历史学的 @whigzhou: 序言里刚说完不言而喻，对国王的指控清单倒数第二条却是：他竭力招引印第安野蛮人（进犯我们边境），众所周知，这些印第安人的战争法则便是不分年龄性别状况的无差别屠戮 @whigzhou: 在国父们心目中，这个不言而喻对印第安野蛮人显然不成立 @whigzhou: 实际上，占据独立宣言大部分篇幅的对国王控诉绝大多数是胡扯，仅仅是宣传需要 @王蓬朋: 否则你无法解释作为奋斗的人的存在理由。独立宣言即使是一份政治宣传文件，即使没有学术性的严谨，但是你不能因此否定普世价值的存在，人人生而平等，民主自由本来就是普世的，即使世界范围内无法实现但是其作为最完美的价值观，确实值得我们为之奋斗。 @whigzhou: 为何特殊价值就不值得为之奋斗？ @xqmxqm:因为丧失了统战全天下的幻觉，发现一切得靠自己打出来，自然就容易缩（当然对基于宗教理由主张普世价值的人窝从来是尊重的 @whigzhou: 没错，普世主义往往就是用来给自己壮胆的，在实践中，基督徒在多数历史阶段其实并不奉行普世主义，口头上有，行动上没有 @whigzhou: 宗教改革后普世主义一度复兴，但经历连绵宗教战争后幸存下来的，行动上都放弃了普世主义 @whigzhou: 北美清教精神明显是特殊主义，旧大陆已堕落无可救药，转而寻求自我拯救，回到了早期基督徒『福音专属于一小撮上帝选民』的态度 @隐藏的火星人:有可能的普世主义的行动吗 @whigzhou: 有啊，很多，为阿拉伯之春欢呼，欧洲多元主义政策，默奶奶张开怀抱大迎难民 @意识形象:总有几个的公约数吧?自由?温饱?安全?这些总没人反对吧？ @whigzhou: 吃饱穿暖健康长寿男欢女爱儿孙绕膝，这些几近于生物本能的价值确实相当程度上是共通的，但人们谈论『普世价值』是通常不是指这些，而是关乎道德的那些，也就是鲁滨逊世界或伊甸园里没有的那些 @意识形象:我喜欢吃饱所以社会应该让每个人都吃饱否则他们要揭竿而起——我的最小公约数可以成为道德(道德并非虚无缥缈的其实也是资源分配方式的一种)的基石。实际上事实应该就是这样。 @whigzhou: 要是你喜欢一妻三妾并且相信至少一半男人都喜欢那怎么办？责令上帝改变出生性别比？ @whigzhou: 『否则他们要揭竿而起』？1960年的河南人揭竿而起了？1933年的乌克兰人呢？ @whigzhou: 英格兰历史上唯一一次大型揭竿而起发生在1381年，不是因为没吃饱，恰好相反，揭竿者是近代之前吃得最饱的农民，黑死病刚刚消灭了英格兰近一半人口，幸存农民条件大幅改善

【2016-06-26】 @whigzhou: @sw小橘子 问我『制度决定下限，文化决定上限』这句话是不是我说的，我说这么格拉德维尔的话不像是我说的，不过这句话确实道出了一些真相，并且和我的社会进化理论相合，我的理论就是雪球模型，从人性到文化到基础政治结构到制度到可见的繁荣状况，每一外层的可能性皆受制于内层的性质与禀赋， @whigzhou: 所以从短期看，内层结构的性质限制着外层的可能性，而从长期看，特定性质的外层的持续存在，对内层也构成了选择压力，因而也改变着内层的性质，我将这一改变称为（广义的）鲍德温效应。 @whigzhou: 我也曾为这套理论找过一句格拉德维尔式的警句『英国人无论到哪里都能建立起自由社会，德国人和日本人无论到哪个自由社会都会成为模范公民，犹太人和华人无论到哪个自由社会都比其他民族会挣钱……』，无奈还是不够短不够朗朗上口。 @whigzhou: 还要加上后半句『在长期经历不同制度之后，香港文化已不同于广州文化，东德人也已不同于西德人，北朝鲜人更不同于南朝鲜人』 @whigzhou: 有关个人认知能力和人格特质的研究很多，但针对族群比较的研究还很少，历时性的研究则更少，所以我们远未弄清那些特质（及相应的遗传基础）在支撑着宪政、法治、宽容、开放等文明的关键元素，但我们可以设想一下，某些重要特质的改变可能会引出何种结果。 @whigzhou: 不妨从一个分歧最小的特质开始，假如英国人的IQ分布拉低两个标准差，顶级科学家就消失了，再拉低一个标准差，整个科学社区就没了，这大概不会有疑问， @whigzhou: 再考虑经验开放性，假如一个民族的经验开放性的统计分布拉低两个标准差，该民族就不会有出色艺术家了，再拉低一个标准差，所有艺术活动都消失了，这一点不太确定，或许经验开放性不是很好的指标，但我很确信必定可以找到某项特质来评估这一点 @whigzhou: 再考虑法治，法治能够存续的前提是绝大多数人在绝大多数场合愿意自觉遵守规则，否则再强大的司法机器也没用，那么一个族群的尽责性分布拉低两个标准差结果会如何？情绪稳定性也拉低两个标准差呢？ @whigzhou: 道德感又如何？普通法的要义便是：凭良心和常识即可自行判断某一行为是否正当，在一个普遍缺乏道德感的群体，这样的体系能够存续吗？道德感无关于人格特质吗？ @沉默的马大爷: 智商拉低两个标准差，意味着有一半人是弱智，别说科学社区，整个社会都崩溃了。。大部分族群差异达不到这个量级，组内差异一般要高于组间差异 @whigzhou: 两个标准差是夸张了点，但绝非不现实，请看右表 http://t.cn/hByJ2N 不许随便说人弱智，人家要不高兴的 @whigzhou: 确实，消灭顶级科学家大概一个标准差就够了  

【2016-06-23】 @whigzhou: 【福利主义的最佳总结】社会主义制度下，贫穷是不被允许的，你会被强制吃好、穿好、住好、受教育、受雇佣，无论你是否喜欢。那些被证明缺乏必要品格与勤劳因而不值得如此对待的人，将被以仁慈的方式处决，但只要你被允许活着，你就必须优裕的活着。——萧伯纳（英国社会主义大本营费边社早期领袖之一） @whigzhou: 这种念头背后的动机显然是一种『眼不见心不烦』的审美需要，和推动废除肉刑的动机类似，别让脏兮兮的穷人在我眼前晃悠，看着烦，正如缺手缺脚的受刑者在眼前晃悠让我心烦意乱一样，不如把他们都吊死，实际上肉刑废除确实导致了死刑数量大幅上升。  

【2016-06-21】 1）大众从来不是政治角斗场的主动力量， 2）有时他们确实会扮演重要角色，比如被一部分精英动员起来，用作棍子去打另一部分精英或大众， 3）充当棍子不会给他们带来好处，拿他们当棍子使的人当然也会把他们往死里操：看看烟草税、可乐税、最低工资法、禁毒禁娼、欧洲油价电价、医药管制、土地规划…… 4）所以围绕福利制度、累进税、普选权等等的制度之争根本不是什么阶级斗争，那从来都是不同精英团体之间的斗争，各自努力将社会竞争规则朝自己希望的方向改变， 5）在实行自由规则的社会，穷人/弱者/笨蛋往往也会失败，但那是有尊严的失败，而在福利制度下，穷人/弱者/笨蛋还是会失败，但那将是被骗走了尊严的、堕落的、污秽的失败，就像The Wire里那个拖着鼻涕的线人 @振华-Citywanderer:土地规划?何解 @whigzhou: 没有土地规划时，穷人可以住偏一点、差一点、挤一点的房子，甚至拖车，有了土地规划，穷人睡在公园椅子上 @whigzhou: 很多人说有了普选权就不可能收人头税了，蠢，换个名字而已，德国电价中的70%不是人头税是啥？  

【2016-06-18】 @希波克拉底门徒 今天听说一个朋友要退党，我问他有没有读过圣经，他说没有，我说去信这个的人大多数没完整读完圣经。我最后跟他讲：我尊重你，尊重你的信仰自由权利，但不会尊重基督教信仰。我替你最后选择基督教信仰感到惋惜。希望你在选择一种信仰前，先了解它的来龙去脉、真实面貌，完全不了解就去信，跟不知道对方性格、历史就去领结婚证有什么区别？over @黄章晋ster: 宗教提供的价值体系的非理性化，恰恰是一个社会道德伦理体系能相对稳定的保证。如果一个社会的道德伦理是可以讨论的，是服从理性的，它必然是不稳定甚至是无从建立的，它必然很快会讨论人肉是否好吃这样的话题。我们反对器官人肉的自由买卖，其实是自觉使用了宗教提供的绝对伦理。 @黄章晋ster：从社会功能而言，除了为一个社会提供稳定的价值锚链，它还早就衍生出为社会提供反哺和救济功能，社区的化精神纽带功能，跨阶层交流沟通的调适功能……这些社会功能，都是世俗政府无法有效提供的，而西方社会提供类似功能的非宗教社会组织，本身就是宗教组织启发的产物。 @黄章晋ster：我们不用去做历史表现的对照，仅从将来的可能性而言，在彼岸建立天国的信仰和在现世建立人间天国的社会，必然是前者造成灾难的可能性更小。 @黄章晋ster：基督教诞生前的希腊罗马世界，只有崇拜英雄、强者、理性的价值取向，并无同情弱者之类的价值取向，虽然多数人有共情同理心，但不意味着它能上升为稳固的群居规则，尤其是在生产力低下的时代。虽然中国两千年来儒表法里，但儒家伦理若不成意识形态，以韩非子价值观造就的社会必然是斗兽场。 @whigzhou: 前面几点我都没意见，这条不同意 @whigzhou: 需要注意到，所有文明都经历了一个残忍行为逐渐减少的过程，特别是人牲和肉刑的普遍消亡，这个过程发生的很早，宗教在其中似乎并未扮演关键角色 @whigzhou: 去残忍化的过程可能是社会大型化及和平秩序长期持续的自然后果，宗教或意识形态未必是前导因素 @whigzhou: 类似对战场（和角斗场）上的失败者缺乏同情的残酷文化在罗马存续得较久，可能和他的普遍兵役义务有关，当军事职业与其他职业分化更明确，壁垒更森严之后，军事阶层之外的文化就会改变 @whigzhou: 另一方面，就『同情弱者』的经济方面而言，罗马帝国向其公民大派面包可是福利国家的先驱 @baidu冷兵器吧: 希腊和基督教前罗马世界有着长期的慈善行为和组织，这不可能是没有同情价值观的社会 @whigzhou: 对，以后世标准，罗马人表现得缺乏同情心的方面主要是针对战斗中的失败者，依我看这是尚武精神与普遍兵役的结果 @whigzhou: 说起同情心，想到个事情，轿子从北宋开始流行，起初士大夫都鄙视坐轿子的，认为太残忍（也太娘炮），程颐还说『吾不忍乘，分明以人代畜』，但此后轿子地位不断提升，到清代已是官绅富家主要交通工具，是个官没有不坐的，毫无压力，原因显然不是儒家意识形态衰弱，而是人口压力提高，人力益发便宜了。 @whigzhou: 明廷已重新控制北方，清廷更控制了草原，所以这事情不能以缺驴马解释，只能说人比驴便宜。

【2016-06-13】 @海德沙龙 《美国铁路已经落伍了？》 新干线子弹头，欧洲之星，中国高铁……这些耀眼夺目的宏伟工程，在许多人眼里都是现代 工业文明的杰出代表，也是工业党和技术治国论者引为自豪（或艳羡自怜）的对象，即便在美国这个技术治国论素不吃香的地方， 也不乏有人高声质问：我们的高铁在哪里？ @whigzhou: 美国铁路业的活力一度被州际贸易委员会（ICC）的僵硬管制几近扼杀，不过从1970年代中期福特政府所发动的一 系列去管制化改革开始，铁路业又逐渐恢复了活力，此后表现一直不错，只是很少为世人所知。 @whigzhou: 福特是战后历史上被严重低估的一位总统，里根之后的一系列创新浪潮和经济繁荣的制度源头其实都可以追溯到福特 ，他所启动的去管制化改革有幸在卡特、里根和克林顿时期一直得以延续，没有这一系列改革，后来的运输、医疗和互联网发展都 会大打折扣，不过在主流公知叙事中，从来不会有这种人的位置。 @whigzhou: 制度变革与经济/社会表现之间的滞后关系也是现代选举政治所面临的一大困境，碰上那些特别愚蠢的选民时，这问 题就更严重，我敢打赌，今天跺脚痛骂马杜罗的委内瑞拉人里，不少还在怀念查韦斯呢 @PlusKing2022: 福特还是任期太短 没足够时间形成自己的政策 @whigzhou: 但他任内参与谋划经济政策的几员大将政治生命可不短：唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德、迪克·切尼、艾伦·格林斯潘 @whigzhou: 而且福特本人是国会老江湖，纸牌屋游戏高手，政策推动能力强  

【2016-06-13】 @赵昱鲲: 新反动派的名字好赞。顺便问一句：辉总打算就美国大选写点什么吗？ @whigzhou: 不想多写，我就随便说几句吧 @whigzhou: 这次大选，认同问题（即你们-我们之辨）占据了核心位置（至少对共和党），结果美国/西方特殊论（或曰文化主义）占了上风，其要点是：美国/西方的文明诞生自一个极为特殊的历史过程，根植于独特的民族/文化背景，尽管有着相当大的包容性，但即便在今天，离开某些民族/文化特质，它也无法自我维持下去。 @whigzhou: 这些民族/文化特质并非由普遍人性所自动保证，所以我们若要保存这一文明，就不能无差别的接纳任何人作为共同体成员，成为我们的公民伙伴，换句话说，一套制度的存续可能性，对其成员特性并非中性的。 @whigzhou: 这一结果原本是好事，表明美国人终于（再次）抛弃了普世主义，但悲剧在于，这个议题被一个坏蛋窃取了，本来最积极鼓吹特殊主义的是我们新反动派，但因为新反动派始终未能在共和党在成为主流，结果让川普这个民主党中左分子成功篡夺 @whigzhou: 川普的成功将会把特殊主义安放到一个强共同体的平台上，结果将是欧式右翼（文化保守+排外+贸易保护+福利主义），如此一来，特殊主义要么走向失败，要么成功的将美国乃至整个美利坚治世引向衰弱 @whigzhou: 小罗斯福以降，我从未见过如此恶劣的局面，所以目前我所指望的最好结果就是一届瘫痪的政府 @whigzhou: 早先我认为川普政府将会瘫痪，但眼看共和党大佬一个个放弃节操为川普站台，现在我觉得希拉里政府瘫痪的机会或许更大，最好的结果是：希拉里当选，然后国会很快开始重罪调查，半年一年内进入弹劾程序 @whigzhou: 川普带来的最糟结果将是：毁掉右派手中这种重要且极具号召力的牌，他将用一系列悲剧性后果吓住选民，让他们在很长时间内不敢再考虑特殊主义 @whigzhou: 川普初选胜出靠的就是认同议题，他那些欧式右翼政策（最低工资+福利主义+贸易保护）并没有多大吸引力，这一点可以从如下反差中看出：虽然川普初选得票率很高，但在州级和地方选举中胜出的共和党人大多数是反川普的，因为认同是全国性议题，在地方选举中没位置 @whigzhou: 这次选举另一个看点是Libertarian将成为真正有分量的第三党，我要是有票也会投给Johnson，Libertarian虽然也是孤立主义者，但比川普好多了，他们的孤立主义会让美国以外世界变坏，但至少美国本身变好了，以后再出来救世界不迟，但川普将是内外皆毁。 @whigzhou: 再说Libertarian近年来也在进步，像Ron Paul这种罗斯巴德墙上挂的蠢货不多了 @盐光水灵Isabel: 追寻川普的思路，要有赛车手的素质，随时调整；他是目的主义或实用主义者，他随时根据后来的斟酌修改看法，但核心概念离不开一个以目的为主的 @whigzhou: 你们总是替他辩解某某说辞只是竞选策略不是真实立场，那如何才能了解他真实立场呢？竞选之前的态度？对啊，那时候他不就是民主党嘛  

【2016-06-11】 @北京大学出版社 黑手党杀手喜欢装出一副若无其事的样子，出其不意地对目标发动攻击，并且大多是从背后出手，主要也是为了避免发生正面冲突。这也是为什么刽子手曾经会佩戴面罩，以及为什么蒙面者会比其他人作出更多的暴力行为。《暴力：一种微观社会学理论》书摘一 http://t.cn/R5M6G6B @黄章晋ster: 「只要能够获得情绪上的支配权，就能获得身体上的支配权。例如其中一方在对方毫无还手之力时仍然对其大打出手。一方因其心跳超过每分钟200次而动弹不得，另一方则将其心跳维持在每分钟14 @whigzhou: 年初有份对巴西街头帮派的研究据说显示了静息心率与青少年暴力之间的关系 http://t.cn/R5xquwG @whigzhou: 搜了一下，90年代已经有相关研究，见Fiona Brookman: Understanding Homicide(2005) p.65 http://t.cn/R5xqsxf @whigzhou: 所以音乐和舞蹈可能也是一种控制心率（或肾上腺素的其他负面效果）的方法 http://weibo.com/5655200015/DfcFL4iON @whigzhou: 我记得有些印第安部落有着残忍虐待俘虏并以此取乐的习惯，可能也是在训练战士克服与敌人面对面时的情绪波动。 @innesfry: 低静息心率已被证明是与反社会行为和犯罪最相关的生理特征。邮包炸弹客卡辛斯基的静息心率是54。低静息心率对反社会行为的预测能力跟SAT分数对大学GPA的预测能力差不多  

We know less about the ancient world than we think we do 我们对古代世界的认识，比我们以为的要少 作者：James Hannam @ 2015-1-9 译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 校对：Tankman 来源：Quodlibeta，http://bedejournal.blogspot.jp/2015/01/we-know-less-about-ancient-world-than.html On 15 June 763BC, a near total eclipse of the sun was visible over a swathe of the Near East. As luck would have it, the event was noted in the official list of Assyrian high officials. This record provides the earliest absolute and uncontroversial date in ancient history. Using lists of kings and the chronicles of events, historians have counted the years back from this date to construct the chronology of ancient history. 公元前763年的6月15日，在近东的大片地区都能看到一次近似日全食。幸运的是，这一事件被记录在了亚述国高官的官方系年表【译注：即名年官表，亚述以一年一任的“名年官”之姓名纪年，记录当年发生的重大事件】中。这一文献为我们提供了古代历史上最早的无争议的绝对日期。历史学家们利用历代国王名表和大事记，从这一日期开始倒排年代，已经构造出古代史的编年次序。 Radiocarbon analysis (which measures the decay of carbon 14, an unstable isotope) and the predicable styles of pottery found in digs both provide corroborating evidence. Dating the layers of archaeological remains from the artefacts found within them is called stratigraphy and can yield quite precise results. The vast amount of pot shards that has been unearthed allows archaeologists to use statistical methods to screen out random noise and anomalous samples that have found their way into the wrong strata. 放射性碳分析（该方法测量的是碳-14这种不稳定同位素的衰变）和出土陶器可确认的风格，均提供了佐证。从出土的人工制品来测定这些制品所在的考古遗迹各地层的年代，这叫做考古地层学，由此得出的结论相当准确。大量发掘出的陶器碎片，使得考古学家能够利用统计方法排除那些混入错误地层的随机噪声和异常样本。 Of course, pottery and radiocarbon methods need to be calibrated to produce absolute dates. This has been done using samples of wood whose age can be determined by matching patterns of tree rings, a technique called dendrochronology. We can count back sequences of tree rings from the present day, all the way to 2000BC. By carbon dating the oldest samples of wood, we can tie the tree ring record to the results from carbon 14 decay. 当然，陶器和放射性碳方法也需要经过校正，才能得出确切日期。我们现在通过木头样本来做校正，这些木头的年龄可以通过与树木样本的年轮模式进行对照来确定，这种技术叫做树轮年代学。我们现在可以从今天倒推树木年轮的序列，一直推到公元前2000年。通过对最早的木头样本进行碳年代测定，我们就可以将树木的年轮档案和碳-14的衰变结果结合起来。 By 1990, all these clues had yielded a multi-dimensional jigsaw which fitted together to almost everyone’s satisfaction. There were a few heretics like Peter James, who suggested in his book Centuries of Darkness that the conventional chronology included two hundred additional years around 1000BC. Thus remains that were conventionally dated to 1050BC actually occurred in 850BC. Although James’s book is an excellent read, it fails to convince. 到1990年为止，上述所有线索加起来构成了一个多维度的拼图，相互吻合，几乎能让所有人满意。当然也有一些异端，如Peter James曾在其著作《黑暗数世纪》中提出，传统的编年学在公元前1000年前后额外多出了200年。因此传统上定为公元前1050年的遗迹实际上产生于公元前850年。尽管James的书是一本优秀读物，但并不能让人信服。 Nonetheless, it has now turned out that the conventional chronology was not as secure as everybody else thought. While James was convinced ancient history was two centuries too long, new evidence has begun to pile up in the opposite direction: it now looks like the conventional chronology is up to 150 years too short. To put it another way, a cataclysm that everyone thought occurred in 1500BC actually happened before 1620BC. The event in question was the massive eruption of the island of Thera in the Aegean Sea. 尽管如此，现已发现，传统的编年学确实不如大家曾认为的那样可靠。James坚信古代史多出了200年，但新积累的证据却逐渐偏向另一个方向。如今看来，传统的编年学似乎短了多达150年。换句话说，过去人人都以为发生于公元前1500年的一次灾变实际发生于公元前1620年以前。这里所说的事件就是爱琴海锡拉岛的一次大规模火山爆发。 Conventional chronology dated the end of Minoan age in Crete to 1450BC. Archaeologists assumed that the Thera eruption (on the modern island of Santorini) and its resulting tsunami had destroyed the Minoan fleet leaving them vulnerable to raiders from the mainland. Certainly, the havoc wrought by the volcano can clearly be seen across the Eastern Mediterranean. When Thera exploded, it blasted 60 cubic kilometres of rock into the atmosphere which settled over Asia Minor. 传统编年学将克里特岛米诺斯文明的终结时间定在公元前1450年。考古学家猜测，锡拉岛的火山爆发（发生于今天的圣托里尼岛上）及其导致的海啸摧毁了米诺斯的舰队，使之难以抵挡来自大陆的入侵者。当然，由这次火山爆发导致的破坏在整个东地中海地区都清晰可见。锡拉爆发时，曾将60立方千米的岩石冲入空中，落在小亚细亚。 The resulting layer of ash and pumice is used to date the sites where it is observed. And the eruption had other effects. Sulphur dioxide released by the volcano spread across the northern hemisphere and fell to earth as acid rain, or more significantly as acid snow. At the poles, not all of that snow has yet melted and, from the 1990s, it provides a new strand of evidence to date the eruption. 由此产生的火山灰和浮石组成的地层，被用来确定地层中遗址的年代。这次火山爆发还有其他影响。火山中释放出来的二氧化硫席卷北半球，以酸雨或更厉害时以酸雪的形式降落地面。在极地地区，这些雪至今都还没有完全融化。从1990年代开始，这些降雪就为测定该次火山爆发的年代提供了一条新的证据链。 Ice cores, drilled from the icecap of central Greenland, record the depth of each annual snowfall. The ice holds within it information on the constitution of the atmosphere going back tens of thousands of years. Like tree rings, each layer can be counted so as to give an absolute rather than relative date. 从格陵兰岛中部的冰盖中钻孔取出的冰芯，记录着每年降雪的深度。这些冰中包含有过去数万年间大气成分的信息。跟年轮一样，每一层冰都可以数出来，因此能给出绝对年代，而非相对年代。 Big volcanic eruptions show up as spikes in the sulphur-content of the annual fall of snow: Krakatau in 1886; Tombura in 1815; Vesuvius in AD79. Despite the presence of literate civilisations in Egypt, the Levant and Babylon, no written record of the Thera eruption exists, but the ice cores should overcome that deficiency and provide an absolute date for the cataclysm. 大型火山爆发就表现为年度降雪中硫含量的突然增加。如1886年喀拉喀托火山爆发，1815年坦博拉火山爆发，以及公元79年维苏威火山爆发。尽管当时埃及、黎凡特和巴比伦都已产生能够书写文字的文明，但锡拉岛火山爆发并没有成文记录留存下来。不过，冰芯应该能够克服这一不足，为我们提供此次灾难的确切年代。 Actually, the fact that the Thera event went unrecorded is less surprising than it seems. Mankind has been remarkably unobservant of enormous volcanic eruptions. An event in 1257AD, less than 800 years ago, is indelibly imprinted into both the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores. It was greater in size even than Tombora and thus the largest eruption in the last ten thousand years. But remarkably, no one knows where it happened. Only in 2012 has Mt Rinjani in Indonesia emerged as a likely candidate. Another big eruption, as recent as 1809, remains unidentified. 实际上，锡拉事件没有留下成文记录并没有初看上去那么异常。人类对于大型火山爆发历来特别粗心。在不到800年前，公元1257年发生了一次火山爆发，确凿无疑地体现于格陵兰岛和南极的冰芯中。它在规模上甚至比坦博拉爆发还大，因此是过去一万年间最大的火山爆发。但是，引人注目地是，没人知道它发生于何地。直到2012年，印度尼西亚的林加尼火山才得以成为备选答案。另外一次大型火山爆发，晚至1809年，至今身份不明。 By 2000, the Greenland ice cores had revealed that Thera could not have happened when everyone thought it had. The most likely anomaly in the ice dated from 1640BC, but this turned out to be from a volcano in Alaska. At the same time, carbon dating an olive tree buried in the Aegean eruption yielded a date of around 1620BC. Sulphur traces in the ice have been found that correspond to this date, although they are not as strong as might be expected. 到2000年时，格陵兰岛的冰芯已经揭示，锡拉火山爆发不可能发生于此前人们所设想的年代。冰层中最有可能的一次异常发生于公元前1640年，但这源于阿拉斯加的一座火山。同时，通过对在此次爱琴海火山爆发中被掩埋的一颗橄榄树进行碳年代测定，得出的年代大概是公元前1620年。冰层中也发现了与这一年代吻合的硫磺痕迹，只是不如预期的那么强烈。 Now, the dendrochronologists have piled in. The Thera eruption would have caused unusually cold weather which stunted plant growth across the globe. Evidence from bristlecone pines in the western United States, oak trees in Ireland and Swedish pines all point to a cold snap in 1627BC. This is consistent with what we’d expect from a big volcano blowing its top in the Mediterranean. Evidence from the Antarctic ice cores should be in shortly, but for a northern hemisphere volcano, this is unlikely to be conclusive. 现在，树轮年代学家挤进来了。锡拉火山爆发应该会导致不同寻常的寒冷天气，从而会妨碍全球范围内树木的生长。美国西部的狐尾松、爱尔兰的橡树和瑞典的松树所提供的证据，都表明公元前1672年出现了一次突然的寒冷期。这与我们对地中海地区一次大型火山爆发的预期后果相吻合。来自南极地区冰芯的证据应该很快就会出现，但这对一场发生于北半球的火山爆发而言，恐怕并不具有结论性。 The lack of a definitive date for the Thera disaster is frustrating, but we can now be reasonably sure it occurred 120 years earlier than thought. The implications of this for ancient history are immense. The chronology of the New Kingdom of Egypt was thought to be rock solid. Finding that they need to find room for a dozen more decades has been too disconcerting for Egyptologists to tackle so far. There is a good chance that the extra years belong in a period after the well-documented New Kingdom called the Third Intermediate Period. 找不到锡拉岛灾难发生的确切年代，这令人沮丧。不过，我们现在可以合理地确信，它的发生，比原先所设想的要早120年。这对于古代史意义重大。埃及新王国时期的编年次序曾被认为如磐石一般确切。自从埃及学家发现他们需要找出空隙来摆放这多出来的100多年，就一直仓皇不安、无从下手。很有可能，多出来的这些岁月属于文献详实的新王国以后的一段时期，即“第三中间期”。 For historians of Babylonia, the crisis has been less existential. Absolute dates for the second half of the second millennium are based on ancient observations of the planet Venus. We know from modern calculations that a particular configuration of Venus recorded during the eighth year of the reign of a certain King Ammisaduqa must have occurred in 1702BC, 1646BC, 1582BC or 1550BC. 对于研究巴比伦王国的历史学家而言，危机尚没有那么严重。（公元前）第二个千年下半叶的确切年代，是根据古代对金星的观测记录推出来的。基于现代的推算，我们知道，文献记载中某个叫做Ammisaduqa的国王治下第8年出现的某种特定的金星形态，必定发生于以下年代之一：公元前1702年，前1646年，前1582年或前1550年。 Other events in Babylonian history, such as the reign of King Hammurabi (famous for his law code) and the sack of Babylon by the Hittites are arranged around whichever absolute date is most convenient. That some of these possible Venusian dates differ by 120 years, about the same length of time that the Thera eruption has been moved back, is highly suggestive to say the least. 巴比伦历史上的其他事件，如汉谟拉比国王（以其法典而闻名）的统治和赫梯人对巴比伦的洗劫，均参照上述确切年份中最合用的那个来排列。上述几个备选的金星日期中存在相隔120年的情况，大体上与锡拉火山爆发时间被推后的时长间隔相等，这至少可说是非常意味深长。 So, where does all this leave biblical chronology? That remains very unclear. But the redating of Thera shows that we know a lot less about when things happened in the ancient world than we thought we did. 于是，所有这些对圣经编年学而言意味着什么？这一点尚不清楚。但对锡拉火山爆发的重新追溯表明，对于古代世界中的事情何时发生，我们的认识比自认为的，要少得多。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Such a thing 种族这回事 作者：Gregory Cochran @ 2016-4-19 译者：Tankman 校对：龙泉 来源：https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/such-a-thing/ “there’s no such thing as race” is a standard sentence in the United States and Europe. Conventional wisdom, and like so much conventional wisdom, false. “没有种族这回事”在欧美,这是老生常谈｡传统观点,甚至如此传统的观点,是错误的｡ Of course there is. 种族,当然是存在的｡ First you need to define your terms. I would suggest that any population – a group whose members have mated within that group, almost entirely, for some time – and has experienced strong-enough natural selection to change significantly in some trait that we give a shit about can usefully be considered a race. Or a ‘goklu’, where goklu has exactly the same operational meaning as race, without having yet acquired any toxic associations. 首先,你得需要为你的术语给出定义｡我的建议是:任何人群,群内成员交配繁衍(有时几乎只在群内交配),并且经历了足够强度的自然选择因而显著改变了一些被我们所在意的重要性状,那么方便起见,这样的群体便可称作一个种族｡或者叫它“格克鲁”【译注:作者生造词】也行,在此处,格克鲁有着和种族完全一样的操作性意义,但尚未像后者那样获得毒性｡ Low levels of inward gene flow allow selection to change the frequencies of alleles, so mating within the group is important. Usually this endogamy is a natural consequence of geography (not much gene flow across the Atlantic before Columbus) but sometimes it has been caused by social rules, as in the case of the Ashkenazi Jews or the Hindu castes. 低水平的外来基因流入,让自然选择得以改变等位基因的频率,因此交配限于群内这一点是重要的｡通常这种内婚是地理分割的自然结果(如哥伦布之前,大西洋两岸并未发生很多基因转移),但有时社会规则也会导致内婚,如阿什肯納茲犹太人和印度种姓制度｡ Low inward gene flow: in order for significant differences in the neutral genome to accumulate, there must have been < 1 immigrant per generation for tens of of thousands of years or more. That has happened sometimes, and not just with Neanderthals: sub-Saharan Africans and Eurasians were that separate until fairly recently, and have that kind of differences in their neutral genomes. For that matter, Bushmen and Bantu were genetically distinct for an even longer period. So it takes only a little gene flow to stop drift in its tracks. 低水平的外来基因流入:为了累积中性基因组的显著差异,在数万年甚至更长时间内,每代的外来迁入率必须小于1%【编注:依下文内容可知,此处原文漏了百分号】｡这种情况时有发生,而且不止在尼安德特人身上:撒哈拉以南的非洲人和欧亚人种间的隔离状态,直到相当晚近时才结束｡而他们的中性基因组也有这种差别｡同样的,布希曼人和班图人在更长的时间内,在遗传学上有显著不同｡所以,只需要一小点基因转移,就能让遗传漂变改变轨迹｡ Selection can be a lot stronger, and it takes more gene flow to scotch it. You could have effective selection for IQ among the Ashkenazi Jews even in the presence of as much as 0.5% inward gene flow per generation from the general European population. 2% would have been too much, though. 选择压力的作用则可强大得多,需要更多的基因流入才能抵消｡即使目前经历了每代0.5%的来自欧洲人口的外来基因流入,你仍可以在阿什肯納茲犹太人中观察到针对智商的让人印象深刻的选择压力｡不过,也许2%的外来基因流入会抵消选择压力的效果｡ A long period of genetic isolation does not automatically generate differences in any particular trait: but it does show that there has been an extended opportunity for selection to operate effectively and generate population differences. 长期的遗传隔离不能自动产生任何特有性状上的不同:但是它的确显示了选择压力更起作用,并导致种群差异｡ So when we see differences, how old are they? and how can we tell? Plausible selection pressures could generates one-std trait differences in as little as a thousand years, and in some cases, like the Ashkenazim, it likely has. In other cases it may have operated over tens of thousands of years, even as much as quarter of a million years (Bushmen/Pygmies versus other humans). 所以,当我们看到差异时,如何得知这些差异发生多久了?某些情况下,在短短一千年里,合理的选择压力可以产生一个标准差的性状差异,阿什肯納茲犹太人很可能就是这样｡其他情况下可能要花上几万年甚至长达二三十万年(比如布须曼人/俾格米人相对于其他人类的差异)｡ If the trait in question is characteristic of a geographically extended population, you might suspect that selection had operated over a long time. But since we now know that there have been many population expansions and replacements, you might be wrong. Ancient DNA may be a better guide. 如果讨论的性状属于一个在地理上广泛分布的人群,你一定会怀疑自然选择已经作用了很长时间｡但是既然我们现在知道很多人口扩张和替代现象,你的猜测可能是错的｡古代DNA可能是更好的线索｡ So sometimes the explanation for the differences between two populations may go back deep into the Ice Age, but it might also have happened since the birth of agriculture, or even since the fall of Rome. 所以有时解释两个种群间的差异,可能要回溯到冰河时代,但它也可能发生在农业起源之后,甚至是罗马灭亡之后｡ Suppose you have a one-std difference in some trait between two populations? What can we say about the genetic architecture? Well, sometime it boils down to the presence or absence of a single allele. Other times it is caused by a shift in the frequencies of a number of alleles that each have a small effect on the trait. 假如在两个种群间,一些性状存在一个标准差的差距,在遗传构成方面,我们有何结论?有时,这归结于某个等位基因的存在或缺失｡也有时,这是因为多个等位基因的频率漂变,每个(对)等位基因对性状均有一些影响｡ African-Americans average about 1-std lower in white count. That’s all due to the Duffy allele. All else equal, northern Europeans are a couple of centimeters taller than southern Europeans: that is caused by frequency differences in hundreds of alleles affecting height, a shift that on the whole has increased the frequency of plus variants. 非裔美国人平均比美国白人矮一个标准差｡这完全归因于Duffy等位基因｡其他条件相同时,北欧人比南欧人高一两厘米:这是因为数百个影响身高的等位基因的频率差异,某个漂变作用于这些等位基因上,增加了正向变异的频数｡ So what to say to someone that asks about the ‘race gene’? First, you tell her that she’s an idiot. The complex of shovel-shaped incisors, thick hair, small breasts, more eccrine sweat glands, and a different shape to the hangy-down part of the ear, fixed in northeast Asia, is indeed caused by a single allele, an EDAR variant that is essentially nonexistent in Europe or Africa. On the other hand, Pygmy height, or the lack of it, is influenced by a number of alleles. 所以如果有人问道“人种基因”的问题,该怎么回答呢?首先,你告诉她她是个白痴｡铲形门齿,浓密头发,小乳房,小汗腺发达,以及耳垂的不同形状,这些集中于东北亚人种的组合性状,实际上是由同一个等位基因带来的,一个不存在于欧非人种中的EDAR变异｡另一方面,俾格米人的身高,或者说身高很低,则反映了大量等位基因的影响｡ But the genetic architecture isn’t all that important: it’s the differences that matter. Pygmies are really short – that’s what matters. 但是遗传结构并不一定都那么重要:重要的是性状差异｡比如俾格米人真的很矮,这才是要紧的｡ Along those lines, Lewontin and other bullshit artists have tried to argue that genetic statistics are such that human groups can’t really be different. Most genetic variation in humans is within-group, rather than between-group: so fucking what? the same is true for dogs: am I supposed to think that pit bulls and Chihuahuas and border collies are ‘really the same’? 类似的,列万廷或者其他喷子一直试图争辩,遗传统计学反映了人类族群并非真的不同｡人类的大多数遗传学变异出现在族群内,而非族群之间:那又如何?对狗来说也一样啊:难道我就应该认为斗牛犬和吉娃娃和边境牧羊犬“真的是一样的”吗? Having more plus variants in the alleles that affect a particular quantitative trait doesn’t show up in these genetic statistics (like Fst) at all. Neither would a big frequency difference in a single allele that had a big effect, like EDAR. 这些遗传统计学差异(例如Fst,【译注:费雪统计量,衡量种群间基因差异程度】)完全不能反映影响了特定性状的数据对应的等位基因含有更多正向变异｡也不能反映某一有显著影响的单个等位基因在频数上的巨大差异,例如EDAR｡ People are mostly about as different as they seem to be. There are exceptions, cases where an environmental insult makes a fair amount of difference. This is particularly the case with height, where nutritional status can easily create a 1-std difference. But height is influenced by genetics, too, and the shortest people (the Pygmies) are short for genetic reasons, not because they’re starving. 一般来说,人群间的差异看上去有多大,他们的基因差异就有多大｡环境冲击是一个例外,它也可以导致相当多的差异｡尤其是身高,营养环境可以造成一个标准差的差异｡但基因也可以影响身高｡最矮的人群(俾格米人)长得矮就是因为基因而非饥饿｡ What about the magic immunity of the brain to natural selection? That’s nonsense, of course. We know, for sure, that different goklus have different distributions of personality traits – because they act significantly differently with 24 hours of birth. All the psychometric results indicate that goklus vary in intelligence too [perhaps 3 stds from highest to lowest] probably largely because of differences in the frequency of many alleles with small effects. 关于自然选择,难道大脑就能神奇的免于其影响吗?这当然是胡扯｡我们确定知道,不同种族在人格特质上有不同的分布——出生24小时之后,人们的行为就明显不同｡所有智商测试结果都表明不同种族在智商上也有差异(最低水平与最高水平间约有三个标准差),这可能归因于众多影响智商的等位基因在频率上的差别｡ （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

I Love the U.N., but It Is Failing 我爱联合国，但它辜负了我们的期待 作者：ANTHONY BANBURY @ 2016-3-18 译者：Eartha（@王小贰_Eartha） 校对：慕白（@李凤阳他说） 来源：The New York Times，http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/20/opinion/sunday/i-love-the-un-but-it-is-failing.html I HAVE worked for the United Nations for most of the last three decades. I was a human rights officer in Haiti in the 1990s and served in the former Yugoslavia during the Srebrenica genocide. I helped lead the response to the Indian Ocean tsunami and the Haitian earthquake, planned the mission to eliminate Syrian chemical weapons, and most recently led the Ebola mission in West Africa. I care deeply for the principles the United Nations is designed to uphold. 我在联合国工作了近三十年。1990年代，我在海地担任人权干事，并于斯雷布雷尼察大屠杀期间在前南斯拉夫工作。我曾帮助应对印度洋海啸和海地地震，策划了消除叙利亚化学武器的项目，最近还曾在西非指挥抗击埃博拉病毒。我深切地关心联合国着意维护的准则与理念。 And that’s why I have decided to leave. 这也是我决定离开的原因。 The world faces a range of terrifying crises, from the threat of climate change to terrorist breeding grounds in places like Syria, Iraq and Somalia. The United Nations is uniquely placed to meet these challenges, and it is doing invaluable work, like protecting civilians and delivering humanitarian aid in South Sudan and elsewhere. But in terms of its overall mission, thanks to colossal mismanagement, the United Nations is failing. 全球正面临一系列骇人的危机，从气候变化的威胁到叙利亚、伊拉克和索马里不断涌现的恐怖分子。在应对这些挑战方面，联合国有着特殊的地位，而它所做的工作也极其宝贵，例如在南苏丹及其他地区保护平民与提供人道主义救助。但是当我们谈及它的全面使命时，由于大范围的管理不善，联合国实则正日渐辜负我们的期待。 Six years ago, I became an assistant secretary general, posted to the headquarters in New York. I was no stranger to red tape, but I was unprepared for the blur of Orwellian admonitions and Carrollian logic that govern the place. If you locked a team of evil geniuses in a laboratory, they could not design a bureaucracy so maddeningly complex, requiring so much effort but in the end incapable of delivering the intended result. The system is a black hole into which disappear countless tax dollars and human aspirations, never to be seen again. 六年前，我成为联合国助理秘书长，前往纽约总部工作。我对繁文缛节并不陌生，但此处盛行的奥威尔式告诫与卡罗尔式逻辑的暧昧含糊，仍是令我措手不及。就算你把一群邪恶天才关在实验室里，他们也设计不出这种官僚体系，繁琐到让人发狂，耗费了大量精力到头来却一事无成。这样的体制就是一个黑洞，大把的税金和人们的抱负全都被吸到里面，有去无回。 The first major problem is a sclerotic personnel system. The United Nations needs to be able to attract and quickly deploy the world’s best talent. And yet, it takes on average 213 days to recruit someone. In January, to the horror of many, the Department of Management imposed a new recruitment system that is likely to increase the delay to over a year. 第一个严重的问题是僵硬的人事制度。联合国需要有能力去吸引全球最优秀的人才，并迅速把他们安排到合适的岗位。但现状是，招募一个新人平均要花掉213天。今年一月份，管理部门施行了新的招募制度，时间花费可能超过一年，让人深感恐怖。 During the Ebola epidemic, I was desperate to get qualified people on the ground, and yet I was told that a staff member working in South Sudan could not travel to our headquarters in Accra, Ghana, until she received a new medical clearance. We were fighting a disease that killed many thousands and risked spinning out of control and yet we spent weeks waiting for a healthy colleague to get her forms processed. 埃博拉病毒流行期间，我急需在当地找到合适的帮手，结果却被告知，一位在南苏丹工作的成员在拿到新的体检合格单之前，无法前来阿克拉的总部。我们正在与杀死数千人的流行病抗争，局面时刻有失控恶化的危险，然而却需要耗费数周时间去等一位健康同事走完表格流程。 Too often, the only way to speed things up is to break the rules. That’s what I did in Accra when I hired an anthropologist as an independent contractor. She turned out to be worth her weight in gold. Unsafe burial practices were responsible for about half of new Ebola cases in some areas. We had to understand these traditions before we could persuade people to change them. As far as I know, no United Nations mission had ever had an anthropologist on staff before; shortly after I left the mission, she was let go. 唯一能加快进度的办法就是打破规则，这种情形屡见不鲜。我在阿克拉招募一名人类学家作独立合约员工时就是这么做的。结果证明她真是帮了大忙。在一些地区，近一半的新增病例源于不安全的埋葬措施，我们必须在理解这些习俗传统之后才有办法劝说人们去做出改变。就我所知，在此之前联合国的任务团队里从未有过人类学家；而我离开这个项目后不久，她就被解雇了。 The heads of billion-dollar peace operations, with enormous responsibilities for ending wars, are not able to hire their immediate staff, or to reassign non-performers away from critical roles. It is a sign of how perversely twisted the bureaucracy is that personnel decisions are considered more dangerous than the responsibility to lead a mission on which the fate of a country depends. 维和行动的花费常达数十亿美金，其首长们肩负着结束战争的重大使命，却无法招募到他们的直属部下，或者调离重要职位上的不作为者。这个信号显示了联合国的官僚系统被扭曲至何种无理的程度：比起肩负关乎一国命运的重任，进行人事变动安排对他们来说反而更危险。 One result of this dysfunction is minimal accountability. There is today a chief of staff in a large peacekeeping mission who is manifestly incompetent. Many have tried to get rid of him, but short of a serious crime, it is virtually impossible to fire someone in the United Nations. In the past six years, I am not aware of a single international field staff member’s being fired, or even sanctioned, for poor performance. 这种机制失灵的结果之一就是问责制度形同虚设。当下，一个大型维和任务的总参谋长明显无法胜任，许多人都想把他赶走。但在联合国的体系内，除非他面临严重的犯罪指控，否则要解雇他几乎是不可能的。就我所知，过去的六年间不曾有一名国际部门的职员因为表现糟糕而被解雇，甚至连处罚都没有。 The second serious problem is that too many decisions are driven by political expediency instead of by the values of the United Nations or the facts on the ground. 第二个严重的问题是，太多的决策出于政治上的权宜考虑，而非基于联合国的价值体系或实际需求。 Peacekeeping forces often lumber along for years without clear goals or exit plans, crowding out governments, diverting attention from deeper socioeconomic problems and costing billions of dollars. My first peacekeeping mission was in Cambodia in 1992. We left after less than two years. Now it’s a rare exception when a mission lasts fewer than 10. 维和部队常常在没有清晰的任务目标或退出方案的情况下，就这么四处游荡长达数年，排挤了当地政府，转移了对更深层的社会经济问题的注意力，耗费掉数十亿美元。我参与的第一个维和任务是1992年在柬埔寨。不到两年时间我们就离开了。而现在，罕有任务会短于10年。 Look at Haiti: There has been no armed conflict for more than a decade, and yet a United Nations force of more than 4,500 remains. Meanwhile, we are failing at what should be our most important task: assisting in the creation of stable, democratic institutions. Elections have been postponed amid allegations of fraud, and the interim prime minister has said that “the country is facing serious social and economic difficulties.” The military deployment makes no contribution at all to solving these problems. 看看海地吧：那里已经10余年未曾发生过武装冲突，但是仍有超过4,500名联合国士兵驻守在当地。同时，我们却一直没有履行好最重要的任务：帮助当地人民建立稳定、民主的体制。选举因被指控存在欺诈而延期，临时总理也谈及“这个国家正面临严重的社会与经济困难。”然而军事部署对于解决这些问题毫无助益。 Our most grievous blunder is in Mali. In early 2013, the United Nations decided to send 10,000 soldiers and police officers to Mali in response to a terrorist takeover of parts of the north. Inexplicably, we sent a force that was unprepared for counterterrorism and explicitly told not to engage in it. More than 80 percent of the force’s resources are spent on logistics and self-protection. Already 56 people in the United Nations contingent have been killed, and more are certain to die. The United Nations in Mali is day by day marching deeper into its first quagmire. 我们犯下的最严重错误是在马里。2013年初，恐怖分子夺取了马里北部的部分地区，于是联合国决定派遣10,000士兵与警察前往马里加以应对。令人费解的是，我们派去的军队并无反恐的准备，并且被明确命令不要与恐怖分子交火。超过80%的部队资源用在了后勤和自卫上。到目前，已有56名联合国士兵牺牲，之后必然会出现更多人员伤亡。联合国将就此日渐深陷于马里的泥潭之中。 BUT the thing that has upset me most is what the United Nations has done in the Central African Republic. When we took over peacekeeping responsibilities from the African Union there in 2014, we had the choice of which troops to accept. Without appropriate debate, and for cynical political reasons, a decision was made to include soldiers from the Democratic Republic of Congo and from the Republic of Congo, despite reports of serious human rights violations by these soldiers. Since then, troops from these countries have engaged in a persistent pattern of rape and abuse of the people — often young girls — the United Nations was sent there to protect. 但是，最让我感到不安的是联合国在中非共和国的所作所为。2014年，当我们从非洲联盟手中接过维和任务时，我们可以选择接收哪些部队。没有经过合理的辩论程序，出于现实的政治原因考量，刚果民主共和国与刚果共和国的部队也一起被联合国接收，尽管当时已有报告显示这些士兵存在严重违反人权的行为。自此，这些军队强奸和虐待当地人民的情况持续不断出现，受害者通常都是年轻女孩，而这些人原本是联合国应当保护的对象。 Last year, peacekeepers from the Republic of Congo arrested a group of civilians, with no legal basis whatsoever, and beat them so badly that one died in custody and the other shortly after in a hospital. In response there was hardly a murmur, and certainly no outrage, from the responsible officials in New York. 去年，刚果共和国的维和部队在毫无法律依据的情况下逮捕了一群平民，对他们实施猛烈的殴打，导致一人死于监禁场所，另一人也随后死于医院。但纽约的负责人对此却毫无回应，更别提去表达愤怒了。 As the abuse cases piled up, impassioned pleas were made to send the troops home. These were ignored, and more cases of child rape came to light. Last month, we finally kicked out the Democratic Republic of Congo soldiers, but the ones from the Republic of Congo remain. 随着凌虐事件越积越多，当地人民陈情要求遣返这些部队。这些声音被无视了，同时越来越多强奸幼童的案子被曝光。上个月，我们终于赶走了刚果民主共和国的部队，但是刚果共和国的士兵现在仍驻留在当地。 In 1988, my first job with the United Nations was as a human rights officer in Cambodian refugee camps along the Thai-Cambodian border, investigating rapes and murders of the poor and helpless. Never could I have imagined that I would one day have to deal with members of my own organization committing the same crimes or, worse, senior officials tolerating them for reasons of cynical expediency. 1988年，我在联合国的第一份工作是作为人权干事前往泰柬边界的柬埔寨难民营，调查贫苦无助的平民所遭受的强奸和谋杀案件。我从未想到，自己日后竟要处理实施同样犯罪的联合国人员，更有甚者，还要处理那些出于现实的政治考量而容忍放纵他们的长官们。 I am hardly the first to warn that the United Nations bureaucracy is getting in the way of its peacekeeping efforts. But too often, these criticisms come from people who think the United Nations is doomed to fail. I come at it from a different angle: I believe that for the world’s sake we must make the United Nations succeed. 联合国的官僚体制正在成为它维和努力的障碍，我并不是第一个发出这样警告的人。但这些批评通常来自对联合国抱持悲观态度的人，而我则选择从不同的角度来看待这个问题：我相信，为了全世界，我们必须让联合国成功。 In the run-up to the election of a new secretary general this year, it is essential that governments, and especially the permanent members of the Security Council, think carefully about what they want out of the United Nations. The organization is a Remington typewriter in a smartphone world. If it is going to advance the causes of peace, human rights, development and the climate, it needs a leader genuinely committed to reform. 面对今年即将到来的新任联合国秘书长选举，世界各国，尤其是各安理会常任理事国，需要好好想想他们想从联合国得到些什么。这个机构就像一台智能手机时代的雷明顿打字机，如若仍有心继续推进关于和平、人权、发展与气候等议题，它就需要一位真心实意寻求变革的领导人。 The bureaucracy needs to work for the missions; not the other way around. The starting point should be the overhaul of our personnel system. We need an outside panel to examine the system and recommend changes. Second, all administrative expenses should be capped at a fixed percentage of operations costs. Third, decisions on budget allocations should be removed from the Department of Management and placed in the hands of an independent controller reporting to the secretary general. Finally, we need rigorous performance audits of all parts of headquarters operations. 联合国的官僚体系需要服务于各项任务，而不是反其道行之。第一步应先全面革新人事体制。我们需要一个外部小组来检视这个体制并提供变革建议。第二，所有行政支出都应该控制在任务总费用的某个固定比例内。第三，分配预算的权力应当从管理部门转移至一个直接向秘书长汇报的独立主管人。最后，我们需要对总部行动的各个部分进行严格的绩效审计。 Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is a man of great integrity, and the United Nations is filled with smart, brave and selfless people. Unfortunately, far too many others lack the moral aptitude and professional abilities to serve. We need a United Nations led by people for whom “doing the right thing” is normal and expected. 潘基文秘书长为人诚实正直，联合国也充满了聪明、勇敢与无私的人。可惜的是，太多的人缺少必要的道德品质与专业能力。我们期望联合国被这样一个人领导：对他/她来说，“做正确的事”是平常且可以期待的。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Seattle’s Coming $15 Minimum Wage 西雅图即将实施15美元最低工资标准 作者：Clinton Alexander @ 2015-10-28 译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 校对：混乱阈值（@混乱阈值） 来源：The New American，www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics/item/21844-seattles-coming-15-minimum-wage In the city of Seattle, Washington, Joe Salvatore runs The Recycling Depot, a recycling business employing about 20 people. Not far away, Bobby Denovski is eking out a living at Padrino’s Pizza and Pasta with a handful of employees, and Remo Borracchini is busy running an Italian Bakery. The story is the same across Washington State and across the nation: Businesses are fighting every day to service customers, treat employees well, and simply stay open. Joe Salvatore在华盛顿州西雅图市经营一家叫做“回收站”的回收企业，雇佣了大约20人。不远处，Bobby Denovski正惨淡经营着“帕记披萨和意粉”店，雇有少量员工。而Remo Borracchini则在为经营一家名为“意大利烘焙”的小店而上下奔波。这种故事在华盛顿州和整个美国都很普遍：为了服务顾客、善待雇员以及仅仅是保持开业，企业每天都在奋斗。 Unfortunately in the city of Seattle, it is about to get much more difficult for business owners to continue the fight. Pushed forward primarily by socialist city councilwoman Kshama Sawant, the first phase of a new minimum wage law went into effect on April 1, 2015, and the law will eventually bring all businesses to a $15 minimum wage, more than double the current federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour. 不幸地是，在西雅图市，企业主想要继续奋斗下去，将来会变得更加艰难。主要由信奉社会主义的女市议员Kshama Sawant推动的新最低工资法已于2015年4月1日进入第一阶段的实施，并最终将对所有企业实行15美元最低工资标准，相当于将目前时薪7.25美元的联邦最低工资翻了一倍以上。 The law is a graduated system with different pay scales and timelines for businesses above and below 500 employees. For businesses with 501 employees or more, the April 1, 2015 minimum wage was set at $11 an hour. For the next two years, on January 1 of each year, the wage increases, rising from the current $11 per hour to $13, reaching $15 an hour on January 1, 2018. 新法建立的是一个分级制度，对于雇员超过和低于（及等于）500人的企业分别设立了不同的工资标准和时间表。对于雇有501或更多雇员的企业，2015年4月1日开始最低工资是时薪11美元。在接下来的两年内，每年1月1日提一次工资，从现在的时薪11美元提到13美元，到2018年1月1日实现时薪15美元。 For companies paying at least $1.50 per hour toward a silver level medical benefits plan, the minimum wage goes to $12.50 on January 1 of 2016, then $13.50 in 2017, and finally $15 an hour in January of 2018. As stated on Seattle’s website seattle.gov, “Once Seattle’s minimum wage reaches $15.00/hour, payments toward medical benefits no longer impact employees’ minimum wage.” 如果企业每小时至少帮员工支付1.5美元给白银级医疗福利计划，那么它们的最低工资从2016年1月1日开始将是12.5美元，2017年是13.5美元，最终到2018年1月达到15美元。西雅图市的网站seattle.gov上称：“一旦西雅图的最低工资达到15美元每小时，那么医疗福利付费就不会再影响雇员的最低工资标准。” On April 1, 2015, small-business wages were set at $11 an hour as well. For companies at or below the 500-employee mark, the $15 minimum wage is set to be phased in over the course of the next decade. Again, counting medical benefits and other factors such as tips, the total compensation varies. By the year 2021, the minimum wage will be $15 with tips and health insurance factored in, and in 2025, small businesses must meet the $15 minimum wage without credit for tips or insurance. 2015年4月1日起，小企业的工资也被设定为时薪11美元。对于雇员数量在500名或更少的公司，最低工资标准将在接下来的10年内逐步施行。同样，把医疗福利和其他因素如小费算在内，总工资也会不同。到2021年，把小费和健康保险算在内，最低工资将是15美元，而到2025年，小企业必须符合刨除小费或保险后15美元的最低工资标准。 President Obama has repeatedly urged Congress to raise the federal minimum wage from $7.25 an hour to $10.10 an hour. For this reason it would behoove those across the nation to pay special attention to the city of Seattle. Seattle is tucked away in the northwestern corner of the nation; however, as the city squeezes its businesses for more and more money, it may become ground zero for the minimum wage fight. 奥巴马总统已经反复敦促国会将联邦最低工资从时薪7.25美元提升至时薪10.10美元。因此之故，全美理应特别关注西雅图市。西雅图深藏于美国的西北角落，不过，随着这座城市从其企业身上不断榨取越来越多的钱财，它可能成为最低工资之战的引爆点。 Reasons for the Law 立法理由 Since being first enacted in 1928, the idea of a “minimum wage” has been sold as a law that will benefit the poorest sectors of our society. According to Cornell Law School, “The minimum wage was designed to create a minimum standard of living to protect the health and well-being of employees.” 自1928年首次创设为法律以来，“最低工资”概念就被作为一种有利于社会中贫困群体的法律向大众兜售。根据康奈尔大学法学院的说法，“设计最低工资是为了制定一种最低生活水平，以保障雇员的健康和福利。” Likewise, from the city of Seattle’s own website we find, “Citywide minimum wage laws offer local governments a powerful tool for helping low-income workers and families in their communities. Such measures also have significant impact on businesses and how they operate.” Minimum wage advocates have held that it is possible to set a minimum pay scale and have no ill effect on jobs. 同样，我们也能从西雅图市自己的网站上看到，“全市范围内的最低工资法，能给地方政府提供一种强大工具，以帮助各自社区中的低收入工人和家庭。这种措施也将对企业及其运营方式产生巨大影响。”最低工资的鼓吹者历来相信，设定一种最低工资标准而不对就业产生任何不良影响是可能的。 Operating under the assumption that simply raising the minimum wage will guarantee said wage, the people pushing for the $15 minimum wage claim that it has the power to lift the poor to that “new standard of living.” Is this true? Will it indeed lift the needy in our communities to another level, or is it a false assumption, one that will cause irreparable damage to business and industry? 依着“简单地将最低工资标准提升一下就能实现这一工资收入”的假定行事，那些争取15美元最低工资的人就此宣称，这一标准有能力将穷人提升到“新的生活水平”。这是真的吗？它真的能将我们社区中的贫困人口提升一个水平？还是说这是个错误的假设，将会对企业和实业造成不可弥补的伤害？ Asking the Businesses 问问企业 Several business owners in Seattle were kind enough to give their own opinions of Seattle’s minimum wage law and explain how it will have a negative impact not only on their businesses, but on those people it was designed to help. 承蒙西雅图一些企业主的好意，向我们表达了他们对西雅图最低工资法的个人看法，并解释了它会如何产生负面影响，而这种负面影响不仅仅会作用于他们自己的企业，而且会作用于立法本来意图帮助的那些人。 Walter McLaughlin has been in Small Business Administration (SBA) lending for 27 years. He won the Washington State Financial Services Champion award in 2005. Concerning the minimum wage law in Seattle, McLaughlin said in an e-mail statement: Walter McLaughlin已在“小企业管理局”（SBA）借贷项目工作了27年。他于2005年获得了“华盛顿州金融服务冠军”的称号。关于西雅图的最低工资法，McLaughlin在一份电邮声明中说：

In economics, there is a principal called “zero sum gain” in which an increase is offset by a loss of equal amount. When a small business (and per the SBA’s size standards, over 99% of U.S. companies qualify as small) sees its operating costs increase, it has three options: 1) absorb the cost, 2) raise prices or 3) lower expenses. Since businesses don’t operate with the intention of losing money, the irony of a drastic increase in the minimum wage is that in order for employers to adjust, the net effect may be higher inflation and unemployment, disproportionately hurting the very same group the $15 minimum wage was intended to help. 在经济学中，有个原理叫做‘零和受益’，其中增加值被等量的损失所抵消。如果一家小企业（按照SBA的规模标准，美国超过99%的公司算小企业）的运营成本上升，它就面临三个选项：1）承担这一成本，2）提高价格，或者3）降低开支。由于企业运营的目的并不是为了损失金钱，所以最低工资急剧提升的反讽在于，雇主为了实现调整，最终净效果可能是通胀升高及失业率升高，这对于15美元最低工资标准意图帮助的那个群体损害相对更大。

McLaughlin lays out three ways in which the new Seattle minimum wage law will play out as it’s implemented: a loss to the business owner (absorb the cost), a cost to the general public (raise prices), or a reduction in expenses (possible job loss). McLaughlin提出了西雅图最低工资新法实施之后最终将走向的三种路径：企业主出现损失（承担成本），一般公众的损失（提高价格），或者削减开支（可能出现工作岗位流失）。 A Loss to the Business Owner 企业主出现损失 For those people who have never run a business, the absorption of the additional cost may seem to be the easiest and most straightforward solution to the requirement to pay employees more. But contrary to what those who have never had the experience of sitting down with a company’s balance sheets might think, all business owners are not jet-setting CEOs with profits just flowing in. 对于从未经营过任何企业的人来说，为了达到支付雇员更高工资的要求，由企业承担额外成本似乎是最简单、最直接的解决办法。但与这些从未看过任何一个公司财务收支表的人所想的相反，并非所有企业主都是乘坐直升机的CEO，利润滚滚而来。 At The Recycling Depot, general manager Joe Salvatore stated, “What these people don’t take into consideration is that when you raise the wage, you’re raising the Labor and Industries Insurance cost because that amount is affected by the wages. I have already talked to several small businesses in the area and there’s not a single one who is making tons and tons of money where they’re just going to be able to absorb these costs.” “回收站”的总经理Joe Salvatore说，“这些人没有考虑到，如果提高工资，你还会提高劳动和工业保险成本，因为后者会受工资影响。我已经和本地区的数家小企业谈过，没有一家是在成吨成吨地赚钱，没有一家能够直接承担这些成本。” In other words, while the absorption of minor costs may be a normal and constant part of running a business, the bottom line is a major factor. At Padrino’s Pizza and Pasta, Bobby Denovski echoed Salvatore’s sentiment: “We aren’t a large company with huge profits. As a small business the cost of labor is one of the main factors. Fifteen dollars an hour, that’s a lot of money to ask from a small business.” 换句话说，尽管运营一家企业时，承受并消化小量的成本可能是个司空见惯、总在发生的事，但盈亏底线是个主要的因素。“帕记披萨和意粉”店的Bobby Denovski呼应了Salvatore的观点：“我们不是那种利润巨大的大公司。对于小企业来说，主要因素之一就是劳工成本。15美元一小时，这种要价对于小企业来说可是一大笔钱。” When asked what effect he could foresee the escalating minimum wage law having on his business, Denovski commented, “It could put us all out looking for jobs. We have a couple more years paying on the loan for our restaurant. If we end up paying this $15 an hour, we are honestly in danger of losing it.” 当被问及不断升级的最低工资法将来会对其生意产生何种影响时，Denovski评论说，“我们可能都会被迫出去找工作了。我们的餐馆还有几年贷款需要还。如果最终我们需要支付15美元的时薪，我们真的可能会失去餐馆。” Likewise, The Recycling Depot, as a metals recycling business, is subject to sometimes-dramatic market fluctuations. Metal values can skyrocket, allowing ample room to treat employees well, and values can plummet, leaving the business struggling to survive. Said Salvatore of the times when the market is up, “We do take care of our employees during those times. We give bonuses and things like that. However what about the lean times? This is going to have a dramatic effect on us during the lean times. You can’t just start taking the pay away.” 同样，从事金属回收生意的“回收站”也承受着市场波动，时不时还非常剧烈。金属价格可能飙升，此时企业就有足够的空间来更好对待员工，但价格也可能跳水，那样企业就只能竭力求生。谈及市场向好的时候，Salvatore说，“那种时候我们确实会照顾自己的员工。我们提供奖金等类似东西。但生意差的时候呢？在生意差的时候，这会给我们造成巨大的影响。减少支出都来不及。” A Cost to the General Public 一般公众的损失 If costs cannot be simply absorbed by the company, another option is to raise the price of the product. Bobby Denovski stated, “The only thing I can do is to raise the prices. I worry that the demand for pizza in the community will not support the prices we will have to go to when the wages go up.” How much is a pizza worth to those in his community? How about a gallon of milk? Those claiming the minimum wage will have no ill effect on the community should be asking themselves these questions, because at some point most small business owners such as Denovski must find a way to recoup these costs. 如果成本不能简单地由企业承担，还有一个选项就是提高产品价格。Bobby Denovski称，“我唯一能做就是提高价格。如果工资上涨，我们就必须抬高价位，我担心我所在社区的披萨需求不足以支持我们的这种要价。”在他的社区，一份披萨应该要价多少？一加仑牛奶呢？那些声称最低工资不会对社区产生不良影响的人应当问问自己这些问题，因为到了某个时候，绝大多数小企业主，如Denovski一样，都会想办法转移这些成本。 Referring again to fluctuating values in the metals market, Salvatore stated, “We’re very dependent on the global prices of metals. When the metal values drop, we’re making less money and our margins shrink. During times like this there are a lot of businesses just trying to stay afloat.” And so he is forced to try to pass on the costs in another manner. Salvatore再一次谈及金属市场的波动价格：“我们对全球金属价格有很大的依赖。金属价格下跌时，我们赚的钱就减少，利润收缩。碰到这种时候，大量的企业只是谋求维持下去。”所以他将被迫以另一种方式把成本传递出去。 As a metals recycling business, The Recycling Depot purchases metals from other businesses and from the general public, then sells those metals based on current market prices. Because Salvatore has no control over the sale price (dictated by global supply and demand), the only thing he can do is to drop the prices he is paying the public for those metals, illustrating the second point (a cost to the public) in another light. 从事金属回收行业的“回收站”从别的企业及一般公众手里收购金属，然后依照当前市场价格将这些金属卖出。由于Salvatore没有办法控制销售价格（它由全球供给和全球需求决定），他唯一能做的就是压低他支付给公众的金属收购价格，这从另一个方面说明了我们提出的第二点（公众的损失）。 Lower Expenses 降低开支 Absent the ability to absorb the higher wages or pass on the costs to someone else, a third way to compensate is to lower expenses. On the surface this sounds harmless enough. However, it often means the disappearance of jobs. 要是没有能力承担更高的工资或将成本传递给其他人，那么还有第三种弥补办法，那就是降低开支。表面看来这种做法相当无害。但是，它通常意味着工作岗位消失。 At Borracchini’s Bakery in Seattle, a business that has been open for 94 years, Remo Borracchini has a long history of hiring youth. “I myself have probably hired 1,500 young people over the years. I have had people come here as teenagers and stay here as much as 25 years, so they came and learned a trade,” said Borracchini. 西雅图的“博记烘焙”是一家已经开业94年的企业，店主Remo Borracchini 历来喜欢雇佣年轻人。“多年以来，我本人可能雇佣了1500个年轻人。我手下有些人，来的时候还是个少年，然后就在这工作了25年。他们来我这里，学会了一门生意”，Borrachini这样说道。 He has brought in high-school students who have never worked a job and started them washing pots and pans, stocking shelves, and mopping floors. While the wages many of these new hires make is not a large sum, Borracchini sees a bigger picture: 他曾招过一些从未干过任何工作的高中生，让他们从刷盘子洗碗、装货架、拖地开始干起。尽管这些新进员工所赚取的工资并不多，Borracchini看到的却是一幅更大的图景：

It’s not that we’re just looking for cheap labor. It’s the understanding that you’re doing something for these young people other than sending them out to wander aimlessly through the neighborhoods. You see, I do believe we have a responsibility to our young people. There used to be internships throughout industry. Now that has changed. 并不是说我们只是为了找些廉价劳工。我们的理解是，你是在帮这些年轻人做点什么事，没有让他们在社区中没头没脑地游窜。跟你说，我确实相信我们对年轻人负有责任。过去，各行各业都有实习。现在事情发生了变化。 They used to go into places like print shops, or bakeries and come to begin learning a trade; that was their reimbursement, they were learning something that would benefit them throughout their life. Now they’ve passed a law saying they have to be paid a wage. So what happens? If you’re going to have to pay someone who doesn’t know anything, you might as well pay someone who already knows something. 过去，他们要去文印店或面包店等类似地方，开始学习一门行当；那相当于他们的回报，他们是在学习某种将会受益终身的东西。现在有人制定一条法律，说是必须给他们支付工资。那会发生什么呢？如果有人啥都不懂，你也必须要支付他工资，那你还不如向那些懂点什么的人支付工资。

Continued Borracchini, Borracchini继续说，

Businesses like McDonald’s, they built their empire not on a philosophy of it being a high paying job, but to take kids who have never worked before, teach them a little bit about work ethic and how to perform, and they move on to better opportunities when they have shown they have a bit of ability. You’ll begin to see the order screens in every type of McDonald’s scenario. Look at the jobs they’re eliminating right there. Kids who would be learning to show up for work on time, learning how to interact with the public, how to have a bit of work ethic. 像麦当劳这种企业帝国，它的建基哲学并不是它之作为一种高薪职位，而是它招募此前从未工作过的人，教给他们一点工作伦理和如何履职，然后当他们表现出具备一定能力时，就能前进一步，迈向更好的机会。以后你会看到各式各样的麦当劳式情景，大家都开始用点菜屏。看看他们正在消灭的工作。孩子们本来可以学会按时上班，学会如何与公众打交道，如何具备一点工作伦理。

Salvatore echoed Borracchini, stating that in order to recoup labor costs, jobs would almost certainly be cut, “at least cutting hours back if not completely doing away with jobs. The well is not bottomless.” Salvatore呼应了Borrachini，并说，为了弥补劳工成本，工作岗位几乎肯定会被削减，“如果不是彻底废除岗位，至少需要减少雇佣时长。井中的水毕竟是有限的。” At Padrino’s, a clearly concerned Denovski stated, “Right now it’s [the minimum wage] at $11 an hour and it is already difficult for me and my partner to keep the bills paid and the employees paid. They’re going to be raising that expense up to $15, but none of our other costs will be going down. I honestly don’t know what we’re going to do.” “帕记”的Denovski明显很是担心，他说，“现在的最低工资是时薪11美元，而我和我的合伙人已经感到难以偿付账单、支付员工工资。他们还要将这一开支提高到15美元，而我们的其他成本都不会降低。我真的不知道我们有什么办法。” Salvatore then commented on a worst-case scenario, “Eventually we have to tighten the ropes, and then what happens when there’s nothing left in the reserve?” Indeed, what does happen? What happens to the low-skill workers looking for a job? Where will the teenager or young adult go for training when McDonald’s has automated order screens? As Borracchini said, “It is the internship and low-skill jobs which will be cut. We will have sent them back out onto the street.” 然后，Salvatore就最坏的情形作了评论，“最终我们必须拉紧裤腰带，如果没有剩下任何储备，那会发生什么呢？”确实，会发生什么呢？对于那些找工作的低技术工人，会发生什么呢？当麦当劳开始用自动点菜屏时，少年或刚刚成年的人们要去哪里接受训练？正如Borracchini所说，“被削减的会是那些实习岗位和低技术岗位。我们将不得不把他们送回街上。” Help or Harm? 帮助还是伤害？ Seattle businesses obviously view the new minimum wage law with quite a bit of trepidation. It is easy to see why. These companies will have to find a way to recuperate the costs one way or another. No matter how it ends up happening, it will be a detriment to the community and the city. 西雅图的企业显然正以相当程度的恐惧看待最低工资新法。很容易发现原因所在。这些公司都必须寻找各种办法来弥补成本。不管最终会发生什么，它对于社区和整个城市都是一种损害。 In “The Tax & Budget Bulletin” by The Cato Institute dated March 2014, Joseph J. Sabia, associate professor of economics at San Diego State University, explains how a minimum wage affects the poor’s standard of living and employment opportunities: 在加图研究所2014年3月的“税收与预算简报”中，圣迭戈州立大学的经济学副教授Joseph J. Sabia就最低工资会如何影响穷人的生活水平和就业机会作出了解释：

The bulletin concludes that minimum wage increases almost always fail to meet proponents’ policy objectives and often hurt precisely the vulnerable populations that advocates wish to help. The weight of the science suggests that policymakers should abandon higher minimum wages as an antiquated anti-poverty tool. Minimum wages deter employment and are poorly targeted to those in need. 简报的结论是，提高最低工资几乎总是不能实现其支持者的政策目标，而且通常都会恰好伤害到鼓吹者们想要帮助的脆弱群体。科学表明，决策者们应当放弃提高最低工资这种早已过时的反贫困工具。最低工资伤害就业，而且对于身处困境的人们来说真是南辕北辙。

His words echo the business owners quoted here. Says Borracchini, “I can sympathize with someone who is trying to raise a family. Fifteen dollars is not a lot of money. It’s very difficult. However, there is an element of society who through laws like this are being denied a great privilege. The opportunity to learn how to work.” 他的言论正与我们此处所引企业主的言论互相呼应。Borracchini说，“有人要努力养活一家人，这我能够同情。15美元并不是很大一笔钱。世事艰难。但是，通过这种法律，社会中有一部分人将无法享有一项重要的权利。那就是学会如何工作的机会。” The bottom line is that the minimum wage law was supposedly created to help the poor and needy in our society. However, it is the low-skill and poor who will feel the effect first and foremost, and who will find it much more difficult to acquire the job skills needed to raise the value of their labor to or above the minimum wage. 这里的底线是，最低工资法的创设，本意是为了帮助我们社会中的穷人和急需帮助的人群。但是，首当其冲感受到其影响的就是低技术人口和贫困人口，他们将发现，要将自己的劳动价值提高到或超过最低工资，就必须获得工作技能，而这将变得比以前更难。 As voices cry ever louder for an increased federal minimum wage, the stories of small businesses across the nation need to be brought into the spotlight — businesses reaching out to unskilled youth willing to put in time training. Companies managing a tight bottom line can’t handle the extra expense of yet another increase in wages. 随着提高联邦最低工资的呼声与日俱增，有必要将全美小企业的故事带到台前——这些企业都在向那些技能不足但愿意花时间接受训练的年轻人敞开双臂。盈亏底线很紧张的公司没有办法应对未来工资再次上涨所带来的额外开支。 The heart of our nation does not lie within the halls of Congress but rather in the bakeries, pizza shops, recycling centers, and myriad other small businesses. It is not in the backroom deals between politicians where the effects of these laws will be felt, but rather in the checking accounts of struggling businesses. 我们民族的心脏并不位于国会的办公大楼里，而是位于各家烘焙店、披萨店、回收中心以及种种其他小企业中。要感受到这些法律的效果，不是去看政客之间的暗箱交易，而需要去看艰难度日的各家企业的存款账户。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

The Global Vote of No Confidence in Pax Americana 全球对美利坚治世投下不信任票 作者：WRM @ 2016-4-5 译者：焦美淳（@火车入巷） 校对：Drunkplane（@Drunkplane-zny) 来源：The American Interest，http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/04/05/the-global-vote-of-no-confidence-in-pax-americana/ Defense spending is rising around the world, and it’s not because people feel safer. Bloomberg: 世界各地的国防开支都在上升，而这不是因为人们感到越来越安全。彭博社讯：

Global military spending has begun rising in real terms for the first time since the U.S. began its withdrawal of troops from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. 根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所（SIPRI）的数据，自美军从伊拉克和阿富汗撤军后，全球军事开支第一次有了实际增长。 Defense budgets rose 1 percent to $1.68 trillion in 2015, making up about 2.3 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, Sipri said in a report Tuesday. While the U.S. spent the most at $596 billion, that was down 2.4 percent compared with 2014, while China’s outlay increased 7.4 percent to $215 billion. SIPRI在周二的报告中指出，2015年全球国防预算增加了1%，达到1.68万亿美元，占世界国内生产总值的2.3%。其中美国以5960亿美元的支出高居首位，这一数据比2014年降低2.4%。而中国的国防经费则提高了7.4%，达2150亿美金。 Concern about a possible advance by Russia into North Atlantic Treaty Organization territory following the Crimea invasion and hostilities in east Ukraine led to a surge in spending in Eastern Europe, as Chinese ambitions in the South China Sea spurred arms purchases among Southeast Asian states. 随着克里米亚的遭受入侵以及发生在东乌克兰的敌对行动，对俄罗斯可能挺进北约领土的担忧已导致东欧的军事支出出现了井喷式的增长。同时中国在南海的野心也刺激了东亚国家的武器采购。

What’s forgotten among all the grousing by President Obama and Donald Trump about ‘free riding’ allies is this basic fact of international life: the Pax Americana was intended to suppress global geopolitical and military competition by providing a framework for international security. That benefitted the world by making countries safer at a lower cost and by assuring people that their national defense and access to world trade and markets did not require them to build huge military establishments. 在奥巴马总统和唐纳德·川普抱怨那些“搭顺风车”的盟国时，他们忘记了国际生活的这一基本事实：美利坚治世【译注：第二次世界大战后美国强权主导之下非共产世界的和平秩序】提供一个国际安全框架，旨在抑制全球地理政治和军事的竞争。美利坚治世让全世界受益，它以更低的开支使各国更加安全，并向人们保证他们不需要去建造大量的军事设施来换取国防安全和世界贸易市场的通行证。 People who don’t know much about history or understand American foreign policy will look at the result—that the U.S. spent more on the military than other countries—and think that we were somehow getting snookered. But they forget—or perhaps they never learned—some vital facts: 不怎么懂历史或者不理解美国外交政策的人只会看结果——美国在军事上的花费比其他国家都多——从而认为我们以前不知怎地就被骗了。但是他们忘记了——或者说也许他们从不知道——一些重要的事实： 1. The U.S., a country whose economic and security interests extend globally more than those of any other country thanks both to our geography and the nature of our economy, benefits more than any other country from the existence of a global economic and security system 1. 因为我们的地理位置和经济性质，美国的经济和安全利益辐射全球，甚于其他任何一个国家，因此从全球经济和安全体系中的所获利益也甚于其他任何一个国家。 2. It is actually cheaper for us to maintain this framework when other countries don’t feel the need to spend lots of money on their militaries—when the U.S. spends less than 4% of GDP on defense but has a bigger defense budget than the rest of the world combined, that is the sign of a successful strategy: our military superiority is immense and unchallengeable, yet the cost to us, is by historical great power standards, low. That is the sign of strategic success, not of ‘free riding allies’, Mr. Obama and Mr. Trump. 2. 事实上，当其他国家觉得在军事上并不需要有大量开销的时候，维持这个框架对我们来说成本更低——当美国的国防开支少于GDP的4%，国防预算却比其他所有国家总和还多，这标志着一个成功的战略：我们的军事优势是巨大且不容挑战的；而其成本——按照历史上的强国标准——仍是很低的。奥巴马先生和川普先生，这就是战略成功的标志，而不是让同盟国“搭顺风车”。 3. The other reason that the U.S. has followed this strategy is the bitter experience of the past that teaches an important lesson: multipolar arms races lead to great power war. The U.S. has believed since the 1940s that another global conflict on the scale of World War I and World War II would mean the collapse of global civilization, or even the extermination of the human race. We have therefore made it a centerpiece of our policy to deter other powers from building huge military establishments and, when they do it—as the USSR did in its day—to ensure that such powers are deterred from war and that other powers feel safe enough in the shadow of U.S. strength that their military responses, though real, are limited. 3. 令美国遵循这个战略的另一个原因是，过去的苦涩经验给我们上了重要一课：多极的军备竞赛导致强国间战争。自1940年代起，美国就相信，另一场规模如一战和二战的全球冲突意味着全球文明的崩塌，甚至是全人类的灭亡。因此我们政策的中心就是阻止其他政权建立起庞大的军事设施，并且，当有国家这么做时——就像前苏联当初的所作所为——我们会确保阻止这些政权走向战争，并且使其他政权在美国军事力量的羽翼下感到安心，即便他们的军事反应能力被切实地限制了。 For 70 years this strategic approach has prevented the outbreak of devastating wars like those of the first half of the twentieth century. That we did so at an affordable, though not an insignificant, cost, is a triumph of strategic thinking and of American foreign policy. 过去70年，这项战略方针阻止了很多发生在20世纪上半叶那样的毁灭性战争。尽管我们做到了，其代价不能说不大，但仍是我们能够承受的，这是美国战略思考和外交政策的胜利。 Weak leadership and a failure of strategic intelligence now threatens the success of the most successful world strategy of modern times, a strategy whose success has been the root cause of American prosperity and global stability for two generations. There is no enemy powerful enough to destroy the Pax Americana today, except for the greatest of all great powers in human affairs: the power of stupidity. 软弱的领导力和战略情报的失败，如今威胁着现代最成功的世界战略。这个战略的成功，在整整两代人的时间里，是美国繁荣和全球稳定的根本原因。当下没有任何敌人有足够的能力去摧毁美利坚治世，除了所有影响人类事物的伟力中最强大的：愚蠢之力。 We will know that American foreign policy has started to work again when military budgets around the world go down, while ours remains at an affordable level. Those are the metrics we are looking for; right now, we seem to be getting the opposite. 当全世界军事预算下降，而美国的军事预算尚在可负担水平时，我们会知道美国的外交政策又开始起作用了。这些就是我们要达到的指标；而现在，我们似乎正与之背道而驰。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Sorry, You Can’t Speed Read 抱歉，你无法速读 作者:Jeffrey M. Zacks, Rebecca Treiman @ 2016-4-15 译者:焦美淳(@火车入巷) 校对:Drunkplane (@Drunkplane-zny) 来源:纽约时报,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/17/opinion/sunday/sorry-you-cant-speed-read.html OUR favorite Woody Allen joke is the one about taking a speed-reading course. “I read ‘War and Peace’ in 20 minutes,” he says. “It’s about Russia.” 关于速读，伍迪艾伦讲过一个我们非常喜欢的笑话：“我20分钟就看完了《战争与和平》，”他说，“讲苏联的。” The promise of speed reading — to absorb text several times faster than normal, without any significant loss of comprehension — can indeed seem too good to be true. Nonetheless, it has long been an aspiration for many readers, as well as the entrepreneurs seeking to serve them. And as the production rate for new reading matter has increased, and people read on a growing array of devices, the lure of speed reading has only grown stronger. 速读的美好愿望——即在不错失原文主旨的情况下，以几倍于寻常的速度理解文章内容——看起来并不易达成。然而，对很多读者来说，这确是梦寐已久的美事，一些企业家也一直试图在这方面为读者提供一些服务。由于读物的出版速度越来越快，并且阅读设备越来越多，速读的诱惑力只增不减。 The first popular speed-reading course, introduced in 1959 by Evelyn Wood, was predicated on the idea that reading was slow because it was inefficient. The course focused on teaching people to make fewer back-and-forth eye movements across the page, taking in more information with each glance. Today, apps like SpeedRead With Spritz aim to minimize eye movement even further by having a digital device present you with a stream of single words one after the other at a rapid rate. 第一个著名的速读课程在1959年由伊芙琳伍德所创建。它基于这一概念——阅读之所以缓慢是因为其效率低下。这个课程着眼于教导人们阅读书页时，眼睛尽可能少的左右往返运动，而要让眼睛每扫过一次都获取更多的信息。如今，像SpeedRead With Spritz这样的app，甚至通过在电子设备上快速滚动一个个的单词，来减少眼球的活动。 Unfortunately, the scientific consensus suggests that such enterprises should be viewed with suspicion. In a recent article in Psychological Science in the Public Interest, one of us (Professor Treiman) and colleagues reviewed the empirical literature on reading and concluded that it’s extremely unlikely you can greatly improve your reading speed without missing out on a lot of meaning. 遗憾的是，科学共识显示，我们须抱有怀疑的眼光来看待这番速读事业。在一篇最近发表于《大众心理学期刊》的文章中，Treiman教授和她的同事回顾了有关阅读的实证文献，并得出一个结论：在不大量错失文章原意的情况下，你基本不可能显著地提高阅读速度。 Certainly, readers are capable of rapidly scanning a text to find a specific word or piece of information, or to pick up a general idea of what the text is about. But this is skimming, not reading. We can definitely skim, and it may be that speed-reading systems help people skim better. 当然，阅读者确实能够通过迅速地扫视，从一段文本中提取到特定词语或者信息片段，亦或摘取出这段文字的中心思想。但这是浏览，不是阅读。我们肯定可以做到浏览，或许速读体系有助于促进浏览的效果。 Some speed-reading systems, for example, instruct people to focus only on the beginnings of paragraphs and chapters. This is probably a good skimming strategy. Participants in a 2009 experiment read essays that had half the words covered up — either the beginning of the essay, the end of the essay, or the beginning or end of each individual paragraph. Reading half-paragraphs led to better performance on a test of memory for the passage’s meaning than did reading only the first or second half of the text, and it worked as well as skimming under time pressure. 举例而言，一些速读系统指导人们只在文段或者章节的开端加以关注。这或许是一个很好的浏览策略。在2009年的一个实验中，参与者阅读盖住一半内容的文章——或前半篇，或后半篇，或每段的开头或结尾。阅读每个段落的一半，相比于阅读前半或后半篇文章，对全文意思的记忆效果更好。并且，其效果等同于在时间紧张情况下的浏览。 But speed reading? Techniques that aim to guide eye movements so that we can take in more information from each glance seem doomed to fail. There is only a small area in the retina (called the fovea) for which our visual acuity is very high. Our eyes are seriously limited in their precision outside of that. This means that we can take in only a word or so at each glance, as well as a little bit about the words on either side. In fact, since the 1960s, experiments have repeatedly confirmed that when people “speed read,” they simply do not comprehend the parts of the text that their eyes skip over. 但有速读这回事吗？一些技巧旨在指导我们眼球的活动，以便眼睛一瞥就能获得更多的信息，但它们似乎注定失败。只有在视网膜上很小的一块区域（称作中央凹），我们的视觉敏锐度才非常高。而除了它之外，我们的眼睛在精确度上非常受限。这就意味着我们每次只能看清一个词，顶多再看到它旁边个把词。事实上，自从1960年代起，很多实验都验证了当人们“速读”的时候，他们并不理解他们眼睛扫视过的那部分内容。 A deeper problem, however — and the one that also threatens the new speed-reading apps — is that the big bottleneck in reading isn’t perception (seeing the words) but language processing (assembling strings of words into meanings). Have you ever tried listening to an audio recording with the speaking rate dialed way up? Doubling the speed, in our experience, leaves individual words perfectly identifiable — but makes it just about impossible to follow the meaning. The same phenomenon occurs with written text. 然而我们还有一个更深层次的问题——这个问题也威胁着那些新兴的速读软件——阅读中最大的瓶颈并不是感知（看到词语），而是语言处理（组合词语使其有意义）。你是否尝试过以极快的速度听录音？在我们的经验里，录音速度被增加一倍后，每一个单词都可以听清，但我们却恰恰跟不上它的意思。这种现象也同样出现在阅读纸质内容时。 As in all forms of human behavior, there is a trade-off, in reading, between speed and accuracy. You can learn to skim strategically so that you spend more time looking where the more important words are likely to be, and if the words are presented in a stream you may be able to learn which words to focus on and which to ignore. However, that does not mean that you can somehow magically read parts of a page that you don’t look at, or process all the words in a superfast sequence. 在各种人类行为中，总有取舍。阅读时，取舍就体现在速度和准确度上。你可以学习策略性地浏览，以便在可能出现更重要词语的地方花费更多时间。如果词语在眼前滚动，你能够知道哪些词需要重视，哪些词可以忽略。然而，这并不意味着你可以不看某一页的部分内容，就神奇地阅读了它；也不意味着你能以极快的速度处理所有的词。 Reading is about language comprehension, not visual ability. If you want to improve your reading speed, your best bet — as old-fashioned as it sounds — is to read a wide variety of written material and to expand your vocabulary. 阅读关乎语言的理解，而不是视觉能力。如果你想提高你的阅读速度，你最好的方法——这听起来有点老掉牙——是阅读大量文字资料并且扩充你的词汇库。 Just don’t expect to read “War and Peace” in 20 minutes. 真的别指望在20分钟里读完《战争与和平》。 Jeffrey M. Zacks, the author of “Flicker: Your Brain on Movies,” and Rebecca Treiman are professors of psychological and brain sciences at Washington University in St. Louis. Jeffrey M. Zacks（著有《闪光：看电影的大脑》（Flicker：You Brain on Movies））和Rebecca Treiman，皆为圣路易斯华盛顿大学心理和大脑科学教授。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——