订阅埃及悬念终结
辉格
2012年8月14日
就任才40多天的埃及总统穆尔西，以一次大胆惊人的行动，一举剥夺了最高军事会议（SCAF）的宪法监护权，利用西奈边境事件后人们对军队表现的不满，先试探性的撤换了情报部长，接着又解除了SCAF的头号和二号将领的职务，并宣布废除了SCAF在穆尔西就任前两天所发布的对总统职权的限制规定，在随后的总统公告中，穆尔西又宣布将组织选举委员会的权限从SCAF转移到自己手里。
至此，阿拉伯之春留给埃及政治走向的最后一个悬念消失了，穆斯林兄弟会及其所代表的激进伊斯兰主义取得完胜；令人略感惊奇的是，最后的夺权行动没有遭遇任何抵抗，经过一天沉默之后，SCAF部分成员已经公开表示支持，许多分析认为这是因为年轻一代军官普遍对军方高层的腐败、僵化和恋权心怀不满。
从兄弟会所获得的高支持率看，大批基层军官同情兄弟会的情形也是可以想象的，军方的对抗行动能否获得支持，其命令能否向下贯彻，都大有疑问；希拉里上月对埃及的访问，看来也没有带给军方在权力较量摊牌时获得国际谅解的信心，从民主党的一贯行事风格特别是阿拉伯之春中的表现看，很可能希拉里还施加了相反的压力。
接下去的问题就是兄弟会将如何施展其政治抱负了，在它掌控全部权力分支，消除了对其行事权力的最后一个约束之后，指望它会尊重个人自由和市场秩序是毫无理由的，而从它所提出的种种主张中看，最扯不上关系的，就是法治和宪政了；即将展开的过程世人恐怕不会陌生，它在俄罗斯、德国、伊朗、津巴布韦和委内瑞拉已反复上演，曾经有过的、或在动荡和过渡期短暂出现的自由，将被一点点剥夺。
首当其冲的将是言论自由，然后是组织和结社，最终；当媒体与舆论被全面掌控，反对派又缺乏组织手段时，维持一个选举场面是轻而易举的，甚至像伊朗这样保留一些政党竞争的空间，也并非不可能。
实际上，就在兄弟会成功夺权的同时，扼杀自由的过程似乎已经开始，周一，私人电视台al-Faraeen老板奥卡沙和独立派报纸al-Dustour记者阿菲菲，被总检察长以诽谤穆斯林兄弟会和煽动谋杀总统的罪名起诉，并已被限制出境。
值得留意的是，这两家媒体是埃及当前少有的强烈反对伊斯兰主义的媒体，奥卡沙还参加了总统竞选，al-Dustour则在穆巴拉克时代就是著名的反对派报纸，他们代表着发动了阿拉伯之春、并在革命前期站在斗争前台的、多少接受西方现代文化、喜欢facebook和twitter的那些年轻人；讽刺的是，这个群体很可能是革命“成功”、兄弟会在大权在握之后，为巩固权力稳定局面而首先要压制的对象。
不过，外界最关心的，大概是这一变故将对地区乃至全球政治会有何影响；埃及曾是阿拉伯世界的老大，也是数次阿以战争的主力，因而也是后来的阿以和平和戴维营秩序的一大支柱，其转向自然影响深远。
最直接的变化，是兄弟会恐怕不会再配合以色列对哈马斯的加沙认真执行人员隔离和武器禁运，这将强化哈马斯对以色列的攻击能力，最终导致埃以冲突，假如兄弟会在未来在面临国内危机时需要向外转移压力，或者借此向要挟美国，那就完全有可能这么做，况且它至今没有表态会遵守戴维营协议。
其次，当兄弟会最终掌握埃及的军事资源之后，它的资助将改变目前正胶着中的也门和索马里的力量对比，甚至可能将此影响延伸到非洲之角的厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚和肯尼亚；不同的是，兄弟会大概不会用现代军事机器、以国家间正规战争的方式发挥其对外影响，而更可能以组织延伸、资源输出和幕后控制的方式进行，正如伊朗和叙利亚在过去所做的那样。
tankman @ 2012-08-18, 01:02
奥巴马连任，美国不敢对埃及新政权强硬，比如大幅消减对埃及援助。巴以和中东反恐局面进一步恶化，天朝又多了一个新盟友。
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辉格 @ 2012-08-18, 03:32
The rapidity of Morsy’s moves has surprised most observers. But more surprising than his moves is the US response to his moves. Obama administrations officials have behaved as though nothing has happened, or even as though Morsy’s moves are positive developments. http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=281555
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elfdemon @ 2012-08-19, 13:54
奥巴马就是个蠢驴. 外交上看不出有任何建树, 只知道低头哈腰, 一会儿对日本天皇鞠躬, 一会儿对沙特国王哈腰. 和俄罗斯总统私底下密谋, 出卖国家利益. 对中东局势也毫无贡献. 简直就是个杂碎和废物. 他上台, 是因为他的肤色, 论资历和能力他只是个二流的议员, 要不是正巧是黑人, 根本不会有足够的资本去参选美国总统.
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心乡保罗 @ 2012-08-20, 09:41
革命的任务不是推广自由，而是强化权力。革命的循环总是以一个虚弱权力的垮台开始，而以一个更专制的权力的确立而告终。
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没有名字 @ 2012-08-22, 01:40
埃及会不会变为伊朗？同样是一支势力强大在社会中有广泛影响的军队，为何没能出现泰国巴基斯坦那样，怎么直接就被缴了？对这个事还是想不通。。。
军队还能不能反击或保住地位呢，美国在此事中是个什么角色，发挥什么作用也不清楚，难道会为了虚幻的“民主”旗帜支持兄弟会？伊朗革命时好像就有批军官策划政变推翻霍梅尼，寻求美国支持遭拒，失败被处死，结果很快就吃了苦头。。。。。。。这次不会又犯傻x?
美国支持军队保住地位，让权力有个相互制衡的作用，成为政权稳定器监国护宪，应该才更容易形成它所希望的局面才对啊
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辉格 @ 2013-01-17, 01:51
The Real Mohamed Morsi http://patriotpost.us/opinion/16171
A regime awaiting U.S. weapons has an Islamist leader who calls Israelis “bloodsuckers” and “the descendants of apes and pigs.”
By Arnold Ahlert / January 7, 2013
A video disseminated by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) should blow a giant hole in the fantasy the Obama administration refers to as their Muslim “outreach” initiative. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi is shown in 2010 delivering an anti-Semitic diatribe, during which he referred to “the Zionists” as “bloodsuckers,” “warmongers,” and “the descendants of apes and pigs.” He also called for “military resistance within the land of Palestine,” further noting that the PLO “was created by the Zionist and American enemies.”
The tape is a compilation of excerpts from two different interviews given by Morsi on March 20 and September 23 in 2010. MEMRI discovered the footage, translated it, and combined it into the aforementioned video. Morsi was a member of the Guidance Office of the Muslim Brotherhood when he delivered the remarks. “The Zionists have no right to the land of Palestine,” he said March 20. “There is no place for them on the land of Palestine. What they took before 1947-8 constitutes plundering, and what they are doing now is a continuation of this plundering. By no means do we recognize their Green Line. The land of Palestine belongs to the Palestinians, not to the Zionists.”
He was sure to include the United States in the mix as well. “We must confront this Zionist entity. All ties of all kinds must be severed with this plundering criminal entity, which is supported by America and its weapons, as well as by its own nuclear weapons, the existence of which is well known. It will bring about their own destruction. The peoples must boycott this entity and avoid normalization of relations with it. All products from countries supporting this entity —— from the U.S. and others —— must be boycotted.”
Such a boycott must be quite selective. Beginning January 22, Egypt is scheduled to receive the first installment of 10 F-16 fighter jets and 200 Abrams tanks from the United States as part of a $213 million foreign aid package originally promised to former president Hosni Mubarak. Morsi hasn’t cancelled it. Neither has the Obama administration, despite Mubarak’s ouster. Such seeming indifference by Obama has engendered increasing criticism, with the American Center for Law and Justice (ACLJ) circulating a petition that has garnered more than 150,000 signatures. “A Shariah dictatorship on Israel’s border —— armed with American weapons —— is a deadly threat to Israel and America,” it reads. “All U.S. funding to Egypt must be cut off until we can certify that aid to Egypt will help the national security interests of the United States and Israel.”
This is what Morsi thought of such security interests on September 23, 2010. “These futile [Israeli-Palestinian] negotiations are a waste of time and opportunities…We can see how this dream has dissipated. This dream has always been an illusion… No reasonable person can expect any progress on this track. Either [you accept] the Zionists and everything they want, or else it is war. This is what these occupiers of the land of Palestine know —— these blood-suckers, who attack the Palestinians, these warmongers, the descendants of apes and pigs… [Zionists] must not be given any opportunity, and must not stand on any Arab or Islamic land. They must be driven out of our countries.” The description of Jews as the offspring of apes and pigs is favored imagery of genocidal clerics all throughout the Muslim world and is drawn from the Koran.
This is not the only belligerent statement made by a member of Egypt’s new leadership recently. Essam el-Erian, deputy head of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and a Morsi advisor, called on Jews to return to Egypt because Israel is a criminal entity. “It is better for Jews to live in a country like Egypt rather than in a country contaminated by occupation,” he contended. “Every Egyptian has the right to come back to Egypt no matter what his religion. Egyptian Jews should refuse to live under a brutal, bloody and racist occupation stained with war crimes against humanity.”
After receiving much criticism, el-Erian clarified his remarks. “Jewish occupiers of the territory of historic Palestine are an obstacle to the Palestinians’ right of return,” he said. “Anyone who can read the future can see that this project has a decade, less than a decade to go, and it is our faith that the people of Palestine can then return to Palestine. There will be no such thing as Israel. Instead there will be Palestine which will be home to Jews, Muslims and Druze and all the people who were there from the start,” he added.
El-Erian’s initial remarks drew the ire of Mohamed Abou Samra, a leading figure in the Islamic Jihad movement. According to Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm, Samra sees a different future for Jews naive enough to take up the offer to return to Egypt. “We shall fight them vigorously if they return, especially the Egyptian-Israeli Jews. Islamic Sharia says they deserve to be killed.”
Samra needn’t have worried. Sharia is now the law of the land in Egypt. On December 23, Egypt’s Sharia-based constitution was finally approved after a second round of voting. Western media apologists had sought to highlight the widespread bitterness of the opposition, and the fact that only 32 percent of the voters turned out to vote. Yet 64 percent of Egyptians who did vote approved the document, suggesting Morsi and Sharia law have firm footing in the worlds’ largest Arab country. Thus Morsi’s commitment to Sharia, highlighted during his May 13, 2012 speech, promising that “I take an oath before Allah and before you all that regardless of the actual text [of the constitution]… Allah willing, the text will truly reflect [Sharia], as will be agreed upon by the Egyptian people, by the Islamic scholars, and by legal and constitutional experts,” has come to pass.
In other words, it would seem Morsi is the kind of man who follows through on what he believes. And what he believes about Israel and the Jews ought to make it clear that arming him and his Muslim Brotherhood followers with additional weaponry is a fool’s errand. Yet as of today, it is an errand the Obama administration intends to fulfill. Michel Rubin, a Middle East regional expert at the American Enterprise Institute, explains why. “Obama lived for years in an ivory tower, where political correctness was a religion,” he contends. “By ignoring reality, Obama’s policies have become untethered from reality.”
Yet reality has intruded. The videos released by MEMRI cannot be easily dismissed —— unless a mainstream media that has shown a remarkable incuriosity regarding anything that interferes with the “Arab Spring narrative” is willing to once again give President Obama a pass. One might be forgiven for wondering if the administration’s fallback position here will be the idea that Morsi has “evolved” since 2010. In one sense they would be right. Morsi has indeed evolved. He and his Muslim Brotherhood associates now represent far more of a threat to Israel and the Middle East than they ever have. It remains to be seen if Obama will further enable them with military hardware. If he does, Americans should brace themselves for a possible future of war between Egypt and Israel —— with both sides using weapons supplied by the United States.
Arnold Ahlert is a columnist for FrontPage Magazine.
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辉格 @ 2013-01-17, 01:54
US condemns Mohammed Morsi anti-Semitic remarks http://t.cn/zjeBdU6
The White House has condemned anti-Semitic remarks by Mohammed Morsi, the Egyptian president, who once described Israelis as the “descendants of apes and pigs”.
Mr Morsi’s slurs, which emerged in recordings from 2010, were termed “deeply offensive” by Jay Carney, Mr Obama’s press secretary, who said concerns had been raised with Egyptian officials.
Mr Carney urged Mr Morsi, who has promised to respect Egypt’s decades-old peace treaty with Israel, to promptly state publicly that he respects people of all faiths.
“This type of rhetoric is unacceptable in a democratic Egypt,” he said during a briefing at The White House, adding: “It is counter to peace.”
The intervention from Washington came amid growing controversy over the three-year-old comments, in a speech and subsequent television interview, which were unearthed by researchers.
Mr Morsi, then a Muslim Brotherhood opposition politician, urged Egyptians to “nurse our children and our grandchildren on hatred” for Jews and Zionists.
He also described Zionists as “these bloodsuckers who attack the Palestinians, these warmongers, the descendants of apes and pigs.”
Last October, weeks after being elected Egypt’s president following its revolution, Mr Morsi was recorded apparently saying “amen” in response to an Imam telling an audience to pray for God to “deal with the Jews and their supporters” and to “disperse them and render them asunder”.
Jewish groups have sharply criticised the remarks and said they raised troubling questions about the future of America’s delicate relations with Egypt’s new leaders.
Israeli officials have anonymously said that the comments are seriously concerning, but have so far avoided public responses in an effort to prevent increased tensions.
Mr Morsi, who would be crucial to any Middle East peace deal, also described Zionists as “hostile by nature” and said “all the talk about a two-state solution and about peace is nothing but an illusion”.
A spokesman for Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, said that a group of senior congressman visiting Cairo this week, including Senator John McCain, would reiterate concerns about the comments with Egyptian officials.
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Wenhao @ 2013-08-23, 20:41
焦急等待辉总下一篇写埃及的文章。。。
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tcya @ 2013-08-26, 14:06
这类国际政治话题辉总有没有些推荐的专栏，中文世界大概是指望不上了，国外应该会有些吧。这些话题辉总不常写，看看别人的解解闷。
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辉格 回复:
8月 28th, 2013 at 18:17
我看得也不多，GR关闭后，原来收藏的几个地址也没了
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