【2018-02-28】 别的不说，引入定量方法至少可以把大批文青从一个学科里清除出去……近年来读的人类学著作中靠谱的比例越来越高，甚至历史学也是，这当然离不开新达尔文主义的持续渗透，但新统计学工具和定量方法的大量运用显然也起了很大作用，让四则运算都头疼的文青弄明白什么叫百分位、标准差、基尼系数、Herfindahl系数、p值、贝叶斯推断……确实勉为其难了。 没有啊，我挺喜欢文青的，只要你们专心于文艺、风月、酒肉，别那么努力的研究哲学或社会科学就好～ //@Hurrygigi: 大伯这么不待见我们文青[傻眼]

【2018-02-24】 @innesfry: 在二战之前，医学跟巫术几乎没有太大区别。医生杀死的人恐怕比救活的还多。 ​​​​ @whigzhou: 库克船长的柠檬，Pelletier的奎宁， Lister的消毒剂，伦敦的抗霍乱，洛克菲勒的事业……都远在二战之前 //@whigzhou: Cochran大叔懂得很多，知道的也很多，但也不能全信，他在这件事情上说的太过头了，随便想几个例子就会发现不对劲。 @whigzhou: 这些例子都是以明确的知识积累为基础，不是瞎蒙瞎撞的结果 @whigzhou: 科学方法论的改进->医学理论改进->知识积累->医疗卫生措施的进步->有效措施的普及->医疗效果的统计表现，这是一条漫长的因果链（其实当然不完全是链状的），以某一时期『医生杀死的人比救活的多』（即便这是真的）而断言该时期的医学跟巫术差不多，是不对的，西方医学至少在18世纪已经步入持续积累和改进的轨道，可是将知识变成有效措施，表现效果，建立声誉，从江湖庸医手中夺过市场，每个环节都需要大量时间。 @whigzhou: Johann Bachstrom医生在1734年就明确提出绿色蔬菜缺乏与坏血病的关系，James Lind在1747年通过控制性实验加以证实，1768年库克船长规定其船员必须吃蔬菜和Lind的补充剂，又过了一代人时间，库克船长的做法才被大英海军全面采纳，海军的订单甚至导致了西西里柑橘业的大繁荣，这个过程却是很漫长，但绝对不是巫术。 @whigzhou: 1726年皇家爱丁堡医学院成立，1737年皇家医学会成立，这一时期可视为现代医学步入正轨的开端，下面几张图表摘自Andrew Hinde: England's Population, 2003，可一窥此后两个世纪我大英的医疗成就。 ​​​​ @whigzhou: 这里还有两个数字，摘自Andrea A. Rusnock: Vital Accounts, 2002， 1）伦敦每10年死于痢疾的人数从1700-10年的1070线性下降到1790-1800年的20， 2）British Lying-In Hospital的产妇死亡率从1749-1758年的1/42线性下降到1799-1800年的1/938。

【2016-05-18】 @Helen干杯:关于保守派以高生育率取胜, 恐怕难。现在生育率高的时移民,且移民多为民主党所虏。 @whigzhou: 亚裔移民生育率很低，比白人低，第二代更低，拉丁移民第一代生育率很高（但也没摩门教徒高），第二代就高得不多了 @whigzhou: 不同种族背景移民前三代生育率：http://t.cn/RqFqmHV @whigzhou: 当前亚裔移民年度增量已超过拉丁裔，墨西哥移民已开始净流出，若边境控制收紧，还会继续降低，所以移民生育率高这个判断已不再成立 @whigzhou: 半只烤鸭下肚，再说说刚才那个生育率的问题。 1）要区分生育意愿和实际生育率，前者是行为倾向，后者是行为表现， 2）所谓行为倾向就是将外部条件映射为实际行为的函数， 3）两个在某件事上有着不同行为倾向的人，对应两个行为函数， 4）这两个函数在某个区间可以是重合的， 5）这意味着，拥有不同生育意愿的人，在区间A有着相同生育率，在区间B则不同 6）决定生育率的行为函数有着众多参数，姑且只考虑其中三个：A）收入，B）迫使个人生儿育女的社会压力，C）与生养儿女竞争时间（特别是女性时间）和金钱的各种其他活动的机会（或曰诱惑）， 7）现代化和城市化尽管提高了收入，但也大幅降低了不生育带来的成本B，并大幅提高了生育带来的成本C， 8）与自由派相比，保守派对成本B更敏感，对成本C更不敏感， 9）所以，即便两种生育函数在传统条件下接近重合，可是当B和C大幅改变时，其行为表现上的差距就拉开了 10）同性恋的情况与之相似（可能表现得更纯粹更极端），在传统社会的巨大社会压力下，同性恋尽管缺乏意愿，实际上多数也会结婚生子，换句话说，他们的行为函数和其他人的函数在传统区间取值很接近甚至大致重合，但在现代区间就形同天壤了， 11）那些不肯生或生的很少的人，绝大多数并非不喜欢孩子，而是因为一方面促使其生育的社会压力消失了，同时自己又经不住各种与孩子抢时间的现代诱惑，结果她们便转向各种帮助其释放母爱的廉价替代品，于是便有了猫狗党和圣母婊。 【2018-2-15】 昨天发现这一逻辑在经济学里已经有了名字，叫动机挤出（[[motivation crowding]]）或过度正当化效应（[[overjustification effect]]），只是还没人将它运用于生育率问题，目前的应用场景也都不涉及遗传改变，实际上，这是考察文化-基因协同进化的很好切入点。 鲍德温效应和动机挤出是文化-基因协同进化的两种很相似但方向恰好相反的效应，前者由文化条件对遗传特征作同向拉动，后者作替代。

【2018-02-13】 @whigzhou: 新学期班上来了个黎巴嫩女孩，23岁，起初几天都比较沉默，人有点腼腆，不过主要还是因为英语说不好，今天大家谈论吃饭这个话题时，她突然开了话匣子——说不清楚时就改用法语（她的第二语言），由摩洛哥同学替她翻译——，核心内容是控诉前夫渣男，她大约一年前搬来墨尔本，原因是被安排与舅舅的37岁儿子结婚，来之前正在黎巴嫩上大学，因为婆家承诺为她付在澳洲的学费才答应来的，结果来了之后婆婆不肯掏学费，不过，她决定离开前夫的主要原因还不是这个，而是——在他家根本吃不饱！因为他们家每天只吃一顿（晚饭），而且肉不够多（她在黎巴嫩一天吃三顿，第二顿是主餐，每天下午三点吃），有一次饿的不行叫了个披萨，结果竟然被渣男给退掉了，她在婆家如此吃瘪应该不是高攀婚（hypergamy）的结果，因为她说她父亲在黎巴嫩是警察部门的高官，幸运的是，她姨妈也在墨尔本，所以现在她已搬到姨妈家，过得很舒服，家务姨妈全包，表哥待她也很好，于是大家都说恭喜恭喜。

'Mean' is a no mean word. This is why people like to use it as a means to convey so many meanings, even the 'meaning' proper. A mean cook can be a mean creature, which means his character is widely diverged from the mean value of the statistical distribution, but meanwhile, a mean cook must be an absolutely no mean cook, which means he cooks no mean dishes. If you are confused, feel free to ask -- 'What you mean?' Is the inventor of this mean word a mean man or a mean man or a mean man? I'm not sure. This is a mean question. The only thing I'm sure of is that he must be really mean with his lexicon.

（上周英语课上老师布置了个作业：自己选择一个议题，先给两小时做研究，然后写一篇议论文章，这是我做过的最长的英语写作题，之前的都不超过300 words，很吃力不过挺有收获。） Why Plumbing Is So Expensive in Australia? by Egbert Tzoe 8 Feb 2018 Plumbing is extremely expensive in Australia. According to 9news, it costs $78.40 an hour on average, the highest among all kinds of trades, while a lawyer service costs only $37 an hour.[1] By contrast, an average American plumber charges $31.61(usd$24.74) an hour.[2] The direct cause of this situation is quite straightforward: there are too few plumbers in this country. Year by year, fewer and fewer young people are willing to become a plumber. Perhaps the most revealing fact is that the average age of Australian plumbers is 55, while the overall workforce average is 38. As Mr Paddy McCrudden, an officer of Plumbing Trades Employees Union, says, “plumbers are fast becoming the dad's army.”[3] But why? What prevents such a high wage from attracting more young (or not so young) people into this business? There are no obvious answers, but we have some clues. Higher education was (and is) booming in recent decades. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, proportion of people aged 25-34 with a bachelor or higher degree increased from 27% in 2004 to 37.3% in 2015.[4] As we can imagine, university graduates tend to have a white-collar or managerial or creative job. They would find a hard, dirty and muscular plumbing job unattractive. It’s simply incompatible with their self-identity. In addition, as more girls go to university, plumbers, as well as other heavy manual labor workers, are becoming less popular in the marriage market, because people consistently choose their partners who have an educational background similar to that of themselves. Like other heavy trades, plumbing is highly masculine. An evidence for this is that more than 99% plumbers are male.[5] But, sadly (or nicely, depends on your taste), masculinity has been declining rapidly for half a century in the Western World, especially in its developed part. Among other evidence are two facts: First, average sperm count in men has dropped 50% between 1974 and 2011.[6] Second, maybe not coincidentally, all the tough guy actors have disappeared from the movie or TV screens since mid-1990s.[7] Well then, how can we fix this? Less uni education? Many people would surely be unhappy or even riot I guess. More visas for plumbers? It doesn’t work. In fact, there is a large and sufficient visa quota for plumbers already, 5507 in 2018 alone, but only 4 or 0.07% of them are filled to date. By contrast, 51 of 2675 (1.9%) visa vacancies for chefs, 2955 of 6202 (47%) for programmers, 2633 of 4785 (55%) for accountants, are filled during the same period.[8] Obviously there are not so many foreign plumbers who are interested in and qualified for migrating to Australia. I think English is the main barrier, because as other tradies, plumbers tend to receive less education than other skilled visa applicants. So maybe lowering the English requirement can be a cure, but I suspect it would help a lot. Maybe there is no solution, or maybe high cost of plumbing is not a problem at all. After all, tough men is an endangered species nowadays, but meanwhile, despite the great advance in automatic technologies in recent years, there is still much work needed for them to do, hence it seems not so unfair to pay a high price for these tough guy survivors. Even better, this high price forces us aussies to do many jobs by ourselves, and get a lot of joys. So let it be.   References: [1] http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/careers/plumbers-electricians-australias-richest-tradies-charging-more-than-the-average-lawyer/news-story/4fee7c5920ff4624e53c5ca20f99e3cb [2] https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes472152.htm [3] http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/australias-most-wanted-jobs-tech-heads-health-staff-and-plumbers/news-story/5aed73cf949f668df49be25d5f8b67fe [4] https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/australias-universities/key-facts-and-data#.Wn_ZEiVub4Z [5] http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/2f762f95845417aeca25706c00834efa/4ce9a706f8b1bba7ca2570ec000e3635!OpenDocument [6] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sperm-count-dropping-in-western-world/ [7] http://www.weirdrepublic.com/episode159.htm [8] http://deltaimmigration.com.au/Plumber-General/334111.htm  

【2018-02-03】 @爱猫爱Jazz: 昨晚妈妈喝醉了，跟儿子在黑暗的夜空下开心地大叫Barry the best. 儿子叫“Barry!!!” 妈妈叫”THE BEST!!!” Barry!!!!! THe Best!!!!! ​​​​ @whigzhou: 从原帖里发现了一个有趣的语言现象 @whigzhou: 1.桌上有几个苹果，父亲吃了一个，儿子吃了一个。——吃苹果的（好像）是一对父子 2.我买了几个苹果，父亲吃了一个，儿子吃了一个。——吃苹果的是一对祖孙 @whigzhou: 只能举出一些例子，还没找出一般模式，我再想想 @whigzhou: 3.桌上有几个苹果，父亲吃了一个，儿子吃了一个，姐姐吃了一个。——吃苹果的是一对祖孙 @whigzhou: 没错，但你说的问题相对容易解决，我关注的是另一个问题：你不觉得例1的用法很特别吗？ //@tertio: 我发现的一个规律是，当前场景下谁是“老大”谁就是称呼的出发点。一般来说，家里的小宝宝在场时，所有人的称呼都要以小宝宝为中心定义，因为让小宝宝喊这个喊那个是一项基本娱乐活动。 @whigzhou: 对例1中『父亲』和『儿子』这两个称谓，不存在单一的ego作为『出发点』，实际上，它们是一个关系结构中的两个角色，而不（像例2和例3那样）是从某个ego出发的关系称谓 @whigzhou: 所以这是两种完全不同的用词法，类似的关系结构还有祖孙、夫妻、兄弟姐妹、婆媳、舅甥…… @whigzhou: 如我们所见，基于关系结构的角色称谓远不如从某个ego出发的关系称谓那么稳定，一旦加入某个关系线索让它产生歧义，解读者便立刻倒向后一种含义 @whigzhou: 突然发现，『老公问老婆：今晚我们去哪里吃饭啊？』这句话在LGBTs的耳朵里可能会有另一种含义