【2016-10-24】 在文明化进程中，温带族群相比热带族群有着更佳表现——这一观察大概是成立的，虽然对此所提出的解释多属无稽之谈。 ​​​​ 我能想到的最明显的理由是，温带季节周期波动强烈，俗话说四季分明，这带来几个后果： 1）食物来源的产出量季节性波动，对储存提出了要求，而库存对掠夺和保护构成激励，刺激了各种社会结构与组织发展， 2）食物产出的季节性，促成了延迟满足和审慎计划这两方面的能力发展， 3）季节周期及其与食物产出的关系，促成了天文、计时、立法、气象等知识的积累发展，而这些正是早期文明社会最初发展出的几个复杂知识系统（复杂到需要由专业阶层维护和传承） 等明天早上我再看看评论里是否已集齐了我听过的各种无稽之谈，晚安～  

澳洲真是食肉者的天堂，是不是素食者的地狱还有待考察:) 我常吃的几种肉类，价格由低到高依次是：鸡-羊-牛-猪，后三种的次序和上海/北京比正好颠倒，而羊肉恰好是我最喜欢的，消费者剩余满满。 牛奶AU$1/升，比上海便宜，但酸奶贵，约为牛奶的4-5倍，打算自己做，鸡蛋便宜的$3一打，略贵。 超市里最多见的鱼是三文鱼，不贵。 多数蔬菜很贵，较便宜的有芦笋、胡萝卜、大白菜、卷心菜，其中芦笋是我见到唯一比上海便宜的蔬菜，可惜没人替你削皮。 相比之下，加工过的冷冻包装蔬菜更合算，也更方便，是做熟后冷冻的，微波炉加热即可，另外，罐头蔬菜也便宜，但口味差些。 番茄酱特别便宜。 经过一番尝试之后，我将食谱调整为： 早饭：5个鸡蛋+1小根胡萝卜+100ml酸奶或牛奶；晚饭：450克牛排或羊排+1小根胡萝卜+100多克蔬菜。 看起来非常简单粗暴，不过执行几天之后，体重已明显下降（之前因为搬家前后食谱失控，体重反弹了两公斤）。 最重大改变是，以我的食谱，在家吃饭变得方便很多，一旦我把烤箱摸透，参数调准，生肉往里一扔，中途翻个面，烤熟，撒盐，开吃，胡萝卜生嚼即可，包装蔬菜微波炉加热，盘子攒上一堆送进洗碗机，现在还没解决的问题是：烤肉时垫点什么才能不用洗烤盘。 烤箱是个好东西。 洗碗机还没摸透，经常效果不好，可能跟碗碟的表面特性有关，以后换成宜家Dinera那种试试。  

The Atlantic: Denmark Isn't Magic 《大西洋月刊》：丹麦并不神奇 作者:DEREK THOMPSON @ 2016-08-02 译者:明珠(@老茄爱天一爱亨亨更爱楚楚) 校对:Drunkplane(@Drunkplane-zny) 来源:The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/08/the-american-dream-isnt-alive-in-denmark/494141/ New research suggests that the American dream isn’t alive in Scandinavia—but generous redistribution of wealth isn’t a terrible consolation prize. 新的研究表明，美国梦在斯堪的纳维亚没市场，但慷慨大方的财富再分配并非糟糕的安慰奖。 Danophilia is alive and well in America. Bernie Sanders and other liberals have lauded Denmark’s social democratic dream state, with its free college tuition, nearly universal pre-K, and plentiful child care. 倒是丹麦迷在美国大受欢迎且很滋润。伯尼·桑德斯和其他自由派盛赞丹麦是社会民主主义的梦想国度，因其免费的大学教育，几乎无所不包的学前教育和对孩童的充分关照。 While Republicans and Democrats both praise the virtues of what economists call “intergenerational mobility”—the chance for a poor young child to become at least a middle-class adult—America doesn’t lead the world in the pursuit of the American Dream. 共和党和民主党都赞美经济学家所谓的“代际流动性”——一个贫穷孩子长大至少成为中产阶级的机会——的优点，而在这一点上，美国并未在对美国梦的追求中身先士卒。 The standard social mobility statistic measures how much each generation's income is determined by its parents' income. By that measure, northern Europe and Scandinavia have the highest social mobility in the advanced world, and Denmark tops the list. 标准的社会流动性统计衡量一代人的收入多大程度上由其父母收入所决定。按照这种衡量方式，欧洲北部和斯堪的纳维亚的社会流动性在发达世界排名最高，其中丹麦名列第一。 But this Danish Dream is a “Scandinavian Fantasy,” according to a new paper by Rasmus Landersø at the Rockwool Foundation Research Unit in Copenhagen and James J. Heckman at the University of Chicago. Low-income Danish kids are not much more likely to earn a middle-class wage than their American counterparts. What’s more, the children of non-college graduates in Denmark are about as unlikely to attend college as their American counterparts. 但是，哥本哈根的Rockwool基金会研究部Rasmus Landersø和芝加哥大学James J. Heckman的一项新研究指出，丹麦梦是一个“斯堪的纳维亚空想”。相较于美国的低收入家庭的孩子，丹麦低收入家庭的孩子不会更有可能挣到中产阶级的工资。甚至相较于美国的情况，丹麦无大学文凭者的孩子上大学的希望同样渺茫。 If that’s true, how does Denmark rank number-one among all rich countries in social mobility? It’s all about what happens after wages: The country’s high taxes on the rich and income transfers to the poor “compress” economic inequality within each generation: When the rungs on the economic ladder are closer together, it’s easier to move a little bit up (or down) over the course of a generation. 如果真是这样，为何丹麦的社会流动性在所有富裕国家排名第一？这都源于工资背后的事：国家把从富人和收入里征收的高额税款转移给穷人的做法，“压缩”了代际之间的经济不平等：当社会上升阶梯的横档靠得更近时，代际之间向上（或下）移动就更容易一点。 “The Scandinavian Fantasy” is a rich, complex paper that is already making waves in the newly popular subject of intergenerational mobility. It makes three major points. “斯堪的纳维亚空想”是一篇丰富而复杂的论文，它推波助澜了代际流动性这一新近的流行主题。论文提出三个主要观点。 The first big idea is that Denmark is not a nation of Horatio Algersens. Its high social mobility is not the result of an economy that is uniquely good at helping poor children earn middle-class salaries. Instead, it is a country much like the U.S., where the children of poor parents who don’t go to college are also unlikely to attend college or earn a high wage. Social mobility in Denmark and the U.S. seem to be remarkably similar when looking exclusively at wages—that is, before including taxes and transfers. 第一个是，丹麦不是Horatio Algersens的国家。其高社会流动性并非来自利于贫穷孩子挣到中产薪水的经济。相反它很像美国，在那里没上大学的穷父母的孩子也不大可能上大学或赚取高薪。只看工资——在不考虑税收和财富转移时——丹麦和美国的社会流动性非常相似。【译注：Horatio Alger，1832年1月13日出生，是19世纪一位多产的美国作家，以少年小说而闻名。阿尔杰小说的风格大多一致，均描述一个贫穷少年如何通过其正直、努力、少许运气以及坚持不懈最终取得成功。历史学家认为，阿尔杰的作品绝不仅局限于其有趣的故事本身，小说中描述的通过自身努力获得成功的主人公，给予了大量当时美国穷人力量、信心及动力，更加刻苦工作换取成功。】 It is only after accounting for Denmark’s high taxes on the rich and large transfers to the poor that its social mobility looks so much better than the U.S.’s. America’s (relatively conservative) economic philosophy is that, with low taxes and little regulation, the market is an open savannah where the most talent will win out. But Denmark’s economic philosophy seems to be that the market is an unfortunate socioeconomic lottery system, and so the country compensates the poor with generous transfers paid by high taxes on the rich. 只有平衡了丹麦对富人征高税收和向穷人大量转移财富的因素以后，其社会流动性看上去比美国好很多。美国（相对保守的）的经济哲学是低税收和少管制，市场如同一片开放的大草原，大多数天才自然脱颖而出。而丹麦的经济理念则是，市场是一个不怎么靠谱的社会经济彩票投注系统，所以需要政府通过多征富人税并以慷慨的转移支付补偿穷人。 The second big idea in the paper is that Denmark’s large investment in public education pays off in higher cognitive skills among low-income children, but not in higher-education mobility—i.e., the odds that a child of a non-college grad will go on to finish college. 论文第二个重要观点是，丹麦公共教育的大量投资，在提高低收入家庭孩子的认知技能方面有所斩获，但未增加高等教育的流动性，比如，非大学毕业生子女完成大学学业的几率并未提高。 Overall, Denmark spends much more than the U.S. on all levels of education. In particular, a much higher share of its poor young children is enrolled in daycare and preschool than the United States. This large public investment in kids seems to increase cognitive skills among poor Danish children compared to their American peers. In international math and reading scores, for example, the poorest quartile in Denmark far outperforms their counterparts in the U.S. 总体而言，丹麦在各级教育上的花费比美国多得多。特别是贫困孩子上幼儿园和学前班的比例远高于美国。比起美国的同龄孩子，丹麦对孩子的大量公共投资提高了贫困儿童的认知能力。以国际数学和阅读考试为例，丹麦的最低四分位数的成绩值远优于美国。 But despite this far greater investment in young children and public colleges, Danish children of high-school graduates are still extremely unlikely to go onto college. Put slightly differently, a tiny share of Denmark’s college graduate population comes from homes where neither parent finished high school. The children of college-grads almost always go to college; the children of non-grads often don’t—even in Denmark. 但是，尽管在儿童和公立大学的投资大了很多，丹麦高中毕业生进入大学的可能性仍然非常低。稍有一点不同，极小一部分丹麦大学毕业生来自父母都没读完高中的家庭。大学生的孩子上大学；没上大学的父母，孩子往往也不上大学——即使在丹麦也是这样。 The third big idea is that Denmark’s welfare policies might reduce its citizens’ incentives to go to college. In the early 1990s, when Denmark raised the minimum age of eligibility for social assistance, college enrollment among Danish twenty somethings fell below its trajectory. Based on this finding, the researchers conclude that welfare policies may reduce college enrollment. Denmark makes it more comfortable to be poor and less lucrative to be rich, so many young people decide to end their education after high school. 第三个重要观点是，丹麦的福利政策可能降低了公民上大学的激励。1990年代初，丹麦提高了获得社会援助资格的最低年龄，大学在二十多岁青年人中的招生数随即跌入下行轨迹。基于这项发现，研究人员得出结论，福利政策会减少高校招生。丹麦让穷人更舒适，富人更无利可图，故而很多年轻人决定高中毕业后不再接受教育。 This final idea may be the most controversial. After all, it’s not clear how to frame this finding. Democrats can say: Despite conservative arguments that a welfare state could destroy poor young people’s ambition, Denmark’s educational mobility is no worse than the U.S. But Republicans can say: Despite liberal arguments that Denmark is so much better than the U.S. at social mobility, its poor kids are no more likely to go to college. “There is something here for the Republicans and for the Democrats,” Heckman told me. 最后这个观点可能最具争议。毕竟，目前还不清楚如何解释这个发现。民主党人可以说：尽管保守派观点认为福利国家可能毁掉贫穷年轻人的雄心壮志，可是丹麦的教育流动性并不比美国差。而共和党人可以说：尽管自由派认为丹麦的社会流动性比美国更好，可是其贫穷孩子们同样不太可能进入大学。“这些就是共和党和民主党的说辞”，Heckman告诉我。 The most significant implication of this paper is not a happy one: Equality of opportunity is a fantasy. It does not exist in the U.S., it does not exist in Denmark, and it probably doesn’t exist anywhere. The children of rich college graduates are far more likely to grow up to become rich college graduates, even in the world's social-democratic fantasyland. That is because, everywhere, parents matter. 本文最有意义的推论并不让人开心：机会平等是一种幻想。它在美国不存在，在丹麦不存在，可能在任何地方都不存在。富有的大学毕业生的孩子更有可能成长为富有的大学毕业生，即使在这世界的社会民主乐园——丹麦也是这样。这是因为，任何地方，父母都很重要。 And it’s probably a good thing that parents matter. For the government to make equality of opportunity its singular and absolute policy goal would probably mean breaking up neighborhoods, forcing arranged marriages, enrolling all children in a unified curriculum, and having them all taught by a mass-produced robot; that would eliminate neighborhood effects, assortative mating, peer effects, curricular differences, and the problem of unequal teaching quality. It is unclear that there is a constituency for this policy, even among the most radical of Bernie bros. 当然，父母很重要可能是件好事。对想要实现机会平等的政府来说，其单一而绝对的政策目标，将可能意味着打破邻里关系，强行安排婚姻，统一所有孩子的学习课程，让大批量生产的机器人教授所有孩子；那样将消除邻里影响、选择性的婚配关系【编注：即人们从与自己地位、收入、教育等方面背景相似的人群中选择配偶的倾向】、同侪效应、课程差异和不同教学质量的问题。不知道是否有选区支持这种政策，即使是最激进的桑德斯支持者。 But just as Denmark’s policy may have its own unintended consequences, the American philosophy of opportunity has its own dark side. For example, high income inequality in the U.S. makes a college degree more valuable in America than in similar countries. This may encourage more poor Americans to enroll in college. 但是，正如丹麦政策有自己意想不到的后果，美国式的自我奋斗争取机会的哲学也有自己的暗面。例如，美国显著的收入不平等使美国大学学位比在同类国家更值钱。这会鼓励更多美国穷人上大学。 For many, college pays off. But the recent rise in college attainment in the U.S. has come at a terrible cost for some. Student debt has exploded, particularly at for-profit colleges serving older, poorer students, the majority of whom drop out with student loans that aren’t dischargeable in bankruptcy. 对于很多人来说，上大学是值得的。但是对于一些人，近期大学费用已经上涨到了糟糕的程度。学生债务激增，特别是上营利性院校的年纪较大的穷学生，他们中的大多数辍学时仍带着就算破产也必须偿还的学生贷款。 So the social siren of American inequality—join the rich! go to college!—lures many first-generation students to put tens of thousands of dollars toward a degree that they never get. If they default on their student loans, they won’t be able to get a loan to buy a house. Which means the housing market is constrained by student debt defaults. Which means other industries that rely on a healthy housing market—furniture, cars, plants, kitchen appliances, apparel—are also affected. 因此，美国社会不公平的刺耳警报——成为富人！考上大学！——诱使许多第一代学生花费上万美元以期获得一张他们得不到的文凭。如果他们拖欠学生贷款，将无法获得贷款买房子。这意味着学生债务违约限制了房地产市场发展。也意味着依赖良好运行的房地产市场的其他工业，如家具、汽车、种植、厨房电器和服装都会受到影响。 Denmark doesn’t have all the answers, and apparently its leaders know it—that’s why they have such a strong public assistance system in the first place. But the U.S. mythology of social mobility is also self-defeating, in ways that are exceptionally American. 丹麦没有给出所有的答案，显然其领导人知道这一点，这就是为什么他们首先建立了一套强有力的公共援助制度。但是，美国社会流动性的神话，以非常美国的方式，也打了自己的脸。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Yuri Kochiyama, today’s Google Doodle, fought for civil rights — and praised Osama bin Laden 今天的谷歌Doodle：为民权作斗争并歌颂本拉登的河内山百合 作者:Dylan Matthews @ 2016-05-19 译者:bear 校对:Tiff 来源:VOX,http://www.vox.com/2016/5/19/11713686/yuri-kochiyama Thursday, May 19, this year would've been the 95th birthday of Yuri Kochiyama, a prominent Japanese-American activist who passed away at 93 two years ago. Google is marking the occasion with one of its trademark doodles. 今年五月十九日的这个周四是河内山百合的95岁诞辰，这位生前著名的日裔美国激进分子，于两年前93岁时去世。谷歌把这一天标记为一个Google doodle。【译注：Google doodle是谷歌为了庆祝节日、纪念伟人以及其它伟大成就的临时主页标志。】 Some of Kochiyama's work was deeply, clearly admirable. As an associate of Malcolm X, she was an important nonblack ally to the more militant end of the civil rights movement. She endured forced internment during World War II, and was an outspoken advocate for reparations to internees, which would eventually be passed in 1988. She was a vocal opponent of the Vietnam War and advocate for inmates she viewed as political prisoners. 河内山的一些工作是值得被深刻地、清晰地赞颂的。作为马尔科姆·艾克斯【译注：马尔科姆·艾克斯与马丁·路德·金并称为20世纪中期美国历史上最著名的两位黑人领导人，但他反对后者的“非暴力”的策略，主张通过以暴力革命的方式获取黑人的权利。】的伙伴，她是民权运动中战斗在第一线的重要的非黑人同盟。她在二战时期被强制收容【译注：由于二战时日本是美国的敌对国，日裔美国人被强制收容】，并且成为“被收容者赔偿”法案的积极倡导者，而这项政策最终在1988年通过。她也为反越战发声，并且支持那些她视为政治犯的囚犯。 But other commitments of hers were more ambiguous. She was an outspoken admirer of Mao Zedong even after the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution. She praised Malcolm X for his "admiration for Mao and Ho Chi Minh," and worked closely with the Revolutionary Action Movement, an "urban guerrilla warfare" organization based on "a synthesis of the thought of Malcolm X, Marx and Lenin, and Mao Zedong." The activist Robert Williams gifted her with a copy of the Little Red Book, and she later thanked him for "the gift of Mao's philosophy." 但是她其他的追求则更为暧昧一些。她是毛的直言不讳的崇拜者，即便是在大跃进和文革之后。她因为马尔科姆·艾克斯对毛和胡志明的赞赏而赞扬他，并且和“革命行动运动”组织亲密合作—这是一个基于马尔科姆·艾克斯思想、马克思列宁思想以及毛思综合体的“城市游击战”组织。【译注：Revolutionary Action Movement是马尔科姆·艾克斯的伙伴Max Stanford建立的半秘密组织，制定了用马克思列宁主义建立黑人国家主义的运动纲领】社会活动家罗伯特·威廉姆斯送了她一本红宝书作为礼物，对此她以这是“一份毛思的礼物”为由表示了感谢。 Yuri Kochiyama was a supporter of the terrorist group Shining Path 河内山百合是恐怖组织光明之路的支持者 Two positions of Kochiyama's stand out as particularly alarming. First, she was an enthusiastic supporter of the Peruvian terrorist group Shining Path, a Maoist organization that has conducted a brutal insurgency killing tens of thousands of people since 1980.Peru's Truth and Reconciliation Commission found that Shining Path personally killed or disappeared at least 30,000. 河内山有两个立场尤其让人警觉。第一，她是秘鲁恐怖组织光辉道路的狂热拥护者——这是一个毛派组织，从1980年开始发起了一场导致数万人死亡的血腥叛乱。秘鲁真相与和解委员会认为至少三万人遭到了光辉道路的亲自杀害或导致失踪。 "Its tactics include the burning of ballot boxes and the public 'executions' of moderate local leaders and others, including nuns and priests, who are seen as rivals for the allegiance of the poor," according to a 1992 New York Times report. "In wildly exaggerated demonstrations of Maoist precepts, children have been killed for political 'crimes.' Amnesty International says the guerrillas routinely torture, mutilate and murder captives. 纽约时报在1992年的一则报道中提到：“它的策略包括烧毁投票箱和公开处决温和的本地领袖和其他人，包括修女和神父——他们被视为无产阶级的敌人”，“在疯狂的毛派戒律夸张示范中，孩子由于政治犯罪被杀害。大赦国际组织说这个游击队经常折磨，残害和杀害俘虏。” "We reject and condemn human rights because they are reactionary, counter-revolutionary, bourgeois rights," founder Abimael Guzmán declared in one document. "Rather than concentrate its attacks on the armed forces or police, Shining Path has predominantly singled out civilians," Human Rights Watch noted in 1997. "The Shining Path has pragmatically avoided taking captives unless it intends to execute them … Shining Path has been reported to torture captured civilians before executing them." Shining Path also used rape as a weapon of war. 创始人阿维马埃尔·古斯曼在一份文件中声称:“我们拒绝并谴责人权因为它是反动的，反革命的，资产阶级法权的。”“针对军队和警察的攻击还是次要的，光辉道路主要是甄选平民”人权观察组织在1997年写道，“光辉道路实用主义地避免抓俘虏，除非它打算处决他们……有报道称光辉道路在处决被抓的平民前会折磨他们。”光辉道路还把强奸作为一种战争武器。 This did not appear to bother Kochiyama, who joined a delegation to Peru organized by the Maoist Revolutionary Communist Party, which defends the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. She read, in her words, "the kind of reading materials that I could become 'educated' on the real situation in Peru; not the slanted reports of corporate America. The more I read, the more I came to completely support the revolution in Peru." In other words, she read, and believed, Maoist propaganda denying Shining Path's war crimes. 这似乎并没有对河内山造成困扰，她曾加入过一个由支持大跃进和文革的毛派共产主义革命党组织的代表团去秘鲁。她读道——她的原话：“这类读物能让我知晓秘鲁真实的现状；有别于美国企业的那些带有偏见的报道。我越读越觉得我在变得更加支持在秘鲁进行的这场革命。”换句话说，她阅读并且相信毛派的宣传，并且否认光辉道路的战争罪行。 After her return from Peru, she declared, "What has been taking place in both Peru and the US is a serious campaign to discredit Guzmán and the Shining Path movement, tainting them as terrorists, undermining their struggle with lies, isolating them, and intimidating anyone who might support them." 在她从秘鲁回来后，她声称：“在秘鲁和美国正在发生的是一场严重的运动——抹黑古斯曼和光辉道路运动，污蔑他们是恐怖分子，用谎言破坏他们的斗争，孤立他们，并且恐吓任何可能支持他们的人。” Yuri Kochiyama declared Osama bin Laden "one of the people that I admire" 河内山百合声明本拉登是“我尊敬的人之一” Kochiyama was a thorough-going opponent of what she viewed as American imperialism, and like some radical anti-imperialists this occasionally led her to admiring truly loathsome figures, because she thought they were effective at combating American empire. Abimael Guzmán was one. Osama bin Laden was another. 河内山是所有被她视作美帝主义事物的死对头，并且，就像一些激进的反帝国主义斗士一样，这偶尔使她仰慕一些真正令人讨厌的人物，因为她认为他们在有效地和美帝战斗。阿维马埃尔·古斯曼是一个，本拉登是另一个。 In a 2003 interview for the Objector: A Magazine of Conscience and Resistance, Kochiyama explained: 2003年，在《反对者：一份良心和抵抗的杂志》的采访中，河内山解释道：

I’m glad that you are curious why I consider Osama bin Laden as one of the people that I admire. To me, he is in the category of Malcolm X, Che Guevara, Patrice Lumumba, Fidel Castro, all leaders that I admire. They had much in common. Besides being strong leaders who brought consciousness to their people, they all had severe dislike for the US government and those who held power in the US. 我非常高兴你对我将本拉登视为我尊敬的人之一的理由感到好奇。对我而言，他在我心中的位置和马尔科姆·艾克斯、切·格瓦拉、帕特里斯·卢蒙巴（译注：刚果民主共和国首任总理）、菲德尔·卡斯特罗，以及所有我尊敬的领袖是一样的。他们有很多共同点。除了以强大的思想领导他们的人民之外，他们都对美国政府和那些在美国掌权的人有着强烈的厌恶。 bin Laden may have come from a very wealthy family, but by the time he was twenty, he came to loathe the eliteness and class conduct of his family… 本拉登可能是来自非常富裕的家庭，但在20岁之时，他开始憎恨精英阶级和他家人所在阶级的做法…… …You asked, "Should freedom fighters support him?" Freedom fighters all over the world, and not just in the Muslim world, don’t just support him; they revere him; they join him in battle. ……你问：“自由斗士应该支持他吗？”全世界的自由斗士，不仅在穆斯林世界，不但支持他；他们尊敬他；他们在战斗中加入他。 …You stated that some freedom fighters responded that bin Laden’s agenda is more reactionary and does not speak to the needs of the masses of people who exist under US dominance. bin Laden has been primarily fighting US dominance even when he received money from the US when he was fighting in Afghanistan. He was fighting for Islam and all people who believe in Islam, against westerners, especially the US--even when he was fighting against the Russians. ……你提到一些自由斗士回应说本拉登的事业是更加反动的，并且没有为生活在美国主导下的人民群众的需求发声。即便是在他接受美国资金在阿富汗战斗的时期，本拉登的主要精力就已经放在和美国主导做斗争上了。他在为伊斯兰和所有信仰伊斯兰的人民和西方势力斗争，特别是美国——即便是在他和俄罗斯战斗的情况下。

To be clear, this is Kochiyama defending bin Laden — who, besides being a mass murderer, was a vicious misogynist and hardly the brave anti-imperial class traitor Kochiyama fancies him as — against other leftists who correctly noted that you can oppose American imperialism without allying or supporting violent jihadism. 需要明确的是，这是河内山为本拉登所作的辩护，而另一些左派人士正确地指出，在不支持暴力圣战主义或不与之结盟的情况下，也可以反对美帝国主义，对此她持反对意见。而本拉登，除了是一个大规模的杀人凶手外，还是一个恶毒的厌恶女性的人，并且他不可能像河内山赞许的那样是一个勇敢的反帝国主义的阶级反叛者。 Kochiyama's praise for Che Guevara and Fidel Castro is also controversial, and, I think wrong, but is at least somewhat common on the left. Sympathy for Shining Path and bin Laden, by contrast, is not a common left position basically anywhere. 河内山对切格瓦拉和卡斯特罗的赞美同样是有争议的。我认为这是错的，但至少在左派中还算常见。相比之下，对光辉道路和本拉登的同情在任何的左派阵营都不寻常。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

RECKONING WITH THE PAST 和过去做个了结 作者:MICHAEL INZLICHT @ 2016-02-29 译者:龟海海(@龟海海) 校对:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值) 来源:MICHAEL INZLICHT的博客,http://michaelinzlicht.com/getting-better/2016/2/29/reckoning-with-the-past Sometimes I wonder if I should be fixing myself more to drink. 有时候我辗转反侧，不知是否该借酒消愁。 No, this is not going to be an optimistic post. 没错，这不是一篇鸡汤文。 If you want bubbles and sunshine, please see my friend Simine Vazire’s post on why she is feeling optimistic about things. If you want nuance and balance, see my co-moderator Alison Ledgerwood’s new blog*. Instead, if you will allow me, I want to wallow. 如果你想要泡沫和阳光，我朋友Simine Vazire的文章会告诉你为什么她如此积极乐观。如果你想要情绪间的微妙平衡，看我同僚Alison Ledgerwood的新博客。而我，只想好好吐槽一番。 I have so many feelings about the situation we’re in, and sometimes the weight of it all breaks my heart. I know I’m being intemperate, not thinking clearly, but I feel that it is only when we feel badly, when we acknowledge and, yes, grieve for yesterday, that we can allow for a better tomorrow. I want a better tomorrow, I want social psychology to change. But, the only way we can really change is if we reckon with our past, coming clean that we erred; and erred badly. 我对我们现在的处境有太多的感触，这有时沉重得让我心力交瘁。我知道我失去了自控，头脑不清楚。但我觉得只有当我们直面昨日，为昨日沉痛伤感，才能拥有美好的明天。我渴望美好的明天，我希望社会心理学能改变。但是，唯一能使我们真正改变的是和过去做个了结，坦白过去所犯的严重错误。 To be clear: I am in love with social psychology. I am writing here because I am still in love with social psychology. Yet, I am dismayed that so many of us are dismissing or justifying all those small (and not so small) signs that things are just not right, that things are not what they seem. “Carry-on, folks, nothing to see here,” is what some of us seem to be saying. 首先声明：我热爱社会心理学。我在这儿码字就是因为我依然爱它。然而，让我感到泄气的是，尽管很多微小（其实并非如此微小）的迹象表明情况不妙且另有隐情，我们之中许多人却对所有这些迹象视而不见或想出种种理由开脱。“继续，伙计，这儿没啥好看的，”我们中有些人似乎在这么说着。 Our problems are not small and they will not be remedied by small fixes. Our problems are systemic and they are at the core of how we conduct our science. My eyes were first opened to this possibility when I read Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn’s paper during what seems like a different, more innocent time. 我们的问题不小，想轻易补救谈何容易。我们的问题是系统性的，而且密切关系到我们如何进行科研。我起初发现有可能出了问题是在我读了 Simmons, Nelson, 和Simonsohn合著的论文之后，那时情况看起来和如今还有所不同，还是一个更纯真的年代。【编注：该论文发表于2011年】 This paper details how small, seemingly innocuous, and previously encouraged data-analysis decisions could allow for anything to be presented as statistically significant. That is, flexibility in data collection and analysis could make even impossible effects seem possible and significant. 这篇论文详细阐述了那些之前受鼓励的微小且看似无害的数据分析是如何让事物呈现出统计意义的。那就是，灵活的数据收集和分析可以让那些实际不可能的作用变得可能并且显著。 What is worse, Andrew Gelman made clear that a researcher need not actively p-hack their data to reach erroneous conclusions. It turns out such biases in data analyses might not be conscious, that researchers might not even be aware of how their data-contingent decisions are warping the conclusions they reach. This is flat-out scary: Even honest researchers with the highest of integrity might be reaching erroneous conclusions at an alarming rate. 更糟的是，研究者无需主动挖掘数据就能得到错误的结论，这点被Andrew Gelman解释得很清楚。事实是，研究者在数据分析中的偏见可能不是有意识的，他们甚至没有意识到自己依据数据做出的决定正在歪曲他们最终得到的结论。这可怕至极：即使最诚实，最正直的研究者也有可能以高得吓人的几率得出错误的结论。 Third, is the problem of publication bias. As a field, we tend only to publish significant results. This could be because as authors we choose to focus on these; or, more likely, because reviewers, editors, and journals force us to focus on these and to ignore nulls. 接下来还有发表过程中的偏见。在特定领域中，我们只倾向于发表具有显著意义的结果。这可能是由于作为作者我们选择把注意力放在这些结果上；或者，更可能的是，因为审稿人，编辑和期刊迫使我们把注意力放在具有显著意义的结果上，而忽略那些零结果的研究。 This creates the infamous file drawer that altogether warps the research landscape. Because it is unclear how large the file drawer is for any research literature, it is hard to determine how large or small any effect is, if it exists at all. 这就导致了臭名昭著的＂文件抽屉＂问题（即发表偏见问题），最终歪曲了整个研究领域的形态。由于对任何研究文献我们无法知道其中的“文件抽屉”有多大，我们很难确定该问题所产生的某种影响有多大，假如该影响确实存在的话。 I think these three ideas—that data flexibility can lead to a raft of false positives, that this process might occur without researchers themselves being aware, and the unknown size of the file drawer—explains why so many of our cherished results can’t replicate. These three ideas suggest we might have been fooling ourselves into thinking we were chasing things that are real and robust, when we were pursuing neither. 我认为以上三点——数据的灵活性可能导致大量错误结论，且这一过程可能在研究人员不经意间发生，以及“文件抽屉”尺寸大小的不明——很好地解释了为什么众多我们所珍视的研究成果无法被重复。这三点表明我们可能一直以来自欺欺人以为自己在探求真实且坚实的结果，而事实上我们所追求的既不真实也不坚实。 As someone who has been doing research for nearly twenty years, I now can’t help but wonder if the topics I chose to study are in fact real and robust. Have I been chasing puffs of smoke for all these years? 作为一个做了近20年研究的人，我忍不住怀疑过往研究的课题是否有确凿的依据立论。这些年来我致力探求的是否只是海市蜃楼？ I have spent nearly a decade working on the concept of ego depletion, including work that is critical of the model used to explain the phenomenon. I have been rewarded for this work, and I am convinced that the main reason I get any invitations to speak at colloquia and brown-bags these days is because of this work. 我曾用将近十年的时间来研究“自我耗尽”的概念，包括对解释该现象的模型至关重要的一些工作。我因此项研究获奖，同时我确信现在我之所以能受邀在众多学术讨论会发言并白吃白喝都是因为此项研究。 The problem is that ego depletion might not even be a thing. By now, many people are aware that a massive replication attempt of the basic ego depletion effect involving over 2,000 participants found nothing, nada, zip. Only three of the 24 participating labs found a significant effect, but even then, one of these found a significant result in the wrong direction! 问题在于，“自我耗尽”这个概念可能根本就不存在。时至今日，许多人都知道一项由两千余人参加的试图重复“自我耗尽”效应的大规模研究最终什么都没发现，一片空白。二十四个参与研究的实验室中只有三个发现显著的效应，但即使这样，其中一个发现的显著效应竟然是反向的！ There is a lot more to this registered replication than the main headline, and there is still so much evidence indicating fatigue is a real phenomenon. I promise to get to these thoughts in a later post, once the paper is finally published. But for now, we are left with a sobering question: If a large sample pre-registered study found absolutely nothing, how has the ego depletion effect been replicated and extended hundreds and hundreds of times? More sobering still: What other phenomena, which we now consider obviously real and true, will be revealed to be just as fragile? 此次记录在案的重复性研究留下的不仅仅是一个标题，同时，还有大量的证据表明“疲劳”是真实存在的现象。我承诺一旦我的论文最终发表，我会在之后的博客文章中加以阐述。但现在，令人警醒的问题则是：如果此前大量的研究毫无斩获，那么“自我耗尽”的效应是如何成千上万次地被复制并延伸的呢？更令人警醒的：其它那些我们认为真实无疑的现象，又会不会同样经不起检验呢？ As I said, I’m in a dark place. I feel like the ground is moving from underneath me and I no longer know what is real and what is not. 如我所说，我身处黑暗之地。我感觉似乎脚下的土地都在移动，而我已经辨不清真实和虚假了。 I edited an entire book on stereotype threat, I have signed my name to an amicus brief to the Supreme Court of the United States citing stereotype threat, yet now I am not as certain as I once was about the robustness of the effect. I feel like a traitor for having just written that; like, I’ve disrespected my parents, a no no according to Commandment number 5. 之前我编辑了《刻板印象的威胁》一书，我还签署了一份美国最高法院的法庭陈述并引用了《刻板印象的威胁》，但如今我对该效应的确凿程度却不如过去那样坚定。写下这些文字，让我觉得自己像个叛徒。这感觉如同我对父母大不敬，触犯了十戒第五条。 But, a meta-analysis published just last year suggests that stereotype threat, at least for some populations and under some conditions, might not be so robust after all. P-curving some of the original papers is also not comforting. 但是，去年一项“元分析”（对以往的研究结果进行系统的定量分析）的研究表明，”刻板印象威胁”在一些特定条件下对于一些特定人群可能并不适用，此外对一些原始论文作p值统计曲线的结果同样不让人放心。 Now, stereotype threat is a politically charged topic and there is a lot of evidence supporting it. That said, I think a lot more pain-staking work needs to be done on basic replications, and until then, I would be lying if I said that doubts have not crept in. Rumor has it that a RRR of stereotype threat is in the works. 如今，“刻板印象威胁”是一个政治上受攻击的话题，也受很多有力证据的支持。在这样的情况下，我认为在基础的重复性研究上还有更多艰苦的工作需要做，在这之前，我若说对该效应没有疑问那肯定是在撒谎。有传言称，在之前的很多关于“刻板印象的威胁”的工作中存在着危险信号。 To be fair, this is not social psychology’s problem alone. Many other allied areas in psychology might be similarly fraught and I look forward to these other areas scrutinizing their own work—areas like developmental, clinical, industrial/organizational, consumer behavior, organizational behavior, and so on, need an RPP project or Many Labs of their own. Other areas of science face similar problems too. 公正地说，不止是社会心理学领域存在此问题。心理学中的许多其它类似领域可能同样受影响，我希望这些领域中的研究工作被仔细检验，如进化的、临床的、产业的/组织的、消费行为的、组织行为的心理学等等，都需要一个研究参与池项目【译注：RPP，Research Participation Pool，是一个协调管理研究参与对象的项目】或者“多重实验室”项目【译注：多重实验室项目，Many Labs Project是一个旨在对心理科学多种效应进行可重复性验证的项目】。其他领域的科学研究同样面临类似问题。 During my dark moments, I feel like social psychology needs a redo, a fresh start. Where to begin, though? What am I mostly certain about and where can my skepticism end? I feel like there are legitimate things we have learned, but how do we separate wheat from chaff? Do we need to go back and meticulously replicate everything in the past? Or do we use those bias tests Joe Hilgard is so sick and tired of to point us in the right direction? What should I stop teaching to my undergraduates? I don’t have answers to any of these questions. 在我消沉的这段时间，我觉着社会心理学需要推倒重建，从头来过。那么，从哪儿开始？对于哪些事我能确信不疑？在哪里我能平息我的疑惑？我认为我们学到了一些合理的东西，但如何区分成果和糟粕呢？我们是否需要回去并且一丝不苟地重复过去所有的事情呢？或者我们是否该使用Joe Hilgard厌恶至极的偏见测试来指明方向？哪些东西是我不该教授给本科生的？对所有这些问题我都没有答案。 This blogpost is not going to end on a sunny note. Our problems are real and they run deep. Okay, I do have some hope: I legitimately think our problems are solvable. I think the calls for more statistical power, greater transparency surrounding null results, and more confirmatory studies can save us. What is not helping is the lack of acknowledgement about the severity of our problems. What is not helping is a reluctance to dig into our past and ask what needs revisiting. 本篇博文注定不会有个阳光的结局。我们的问题是真切的，而且深入。好吧，我确实有几点期望：我有理由相信我们的问题是有解的。我认为更多数据支撑，对零结果研究更透明的运作，更多证实性的研究，这些可以解救我们于目前的困境。而帮倒忙的则是：缺乏对问题严重性的认知，不愿意挖掘探究我们的过去并且不愿拷问哪里出了问题。 Time is nigh to reckon with our past. Our future just might depend on it. 时候不早了，是该和我们的过去做个了结了。或许，我们的未来还指望着它呢。

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*In case you haven’t heard, Alison started a wonderful Facebook discussion group that I have the privilege of co-moderating. If you’re tired of bickering and incivility, but still want a place to discuss ideas, PsychMAP just might be for for you. 再次安利一下，Alison开了一个非常不错的脸书讨论组，我也有幸在其中参与共同主持。如果你厌倦了互撕，但仍想找个地方抒发讨论，PsychMAP可能恰好就适合你。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

花AU$3500买了部2005年的Ford Falcon BA，27万公里，没过中介，直接与卖家联系，通过电话后感觉人挺实诚，所在社区看起来也不错，就跑过去买了，这种买法可能为我省了一笔钱。 原本期望很低，结果发现车况相当好，出乎意料，也许车主很会保养（家里有位机械师老爹），也可能这车底子好，半个月开下来，只发现些小毛病（一扇后面的锁和一个远光灯泡怀了，一扇窗玻璃升降略有阻碍），没大毛病，油耗有点大，高速大概12-14升/百公里，市区16升以上，好在我跑动少，这边油价也不贵，油耗对我不是大问题。 适应右舵左行大概花了四五天时间（每天开一两次），最多出问题的地方是：1）误将雨刮作转向，最初两天反复犯错，而且很消耗注意力；2）在车道上的位置感不准了，往左偏，经过刻意练习才纠正。 右转比较困难，这边的交规将右转车的优先级放的很低，在没有专门右转灯的路口，留给右转的时间窗口很短，在特定情形下该让还是该走的决定，其中尺度也不容易把握。 路牌字小，很近才看得见，而且路口角度很直，所以小路口特别隐蔽，容易错过。 前方路名提示较少见，而且实线分道较早，不熟悉路线容易错过变道时机。 除超车和堵车外不许用右车道的规定好像没人理睬，这条规定确实不合理，无端制造大量不必要变道，尤其在限速低、几乎所有车都以接近限速开时，就更没一点好处了。 这边的公路修建者似乎特别偏爱环岛，郊区尤多，单车道环岛很方便，双车道环岛的规则有点特别，昨天刚弄懂，回想起来之前犯过几次错，好在邻车非常友好，让了我。 离CBD十公里以内的地区，堵车（以等待两个或更多红灯为准）情况比预料的多，之前听十年前离开澳洲的朋友说他从未遇到堵车，看来最近十几年车流增长了不少，不过，堵车程度与上下班高峰的相关度没有北京上海那么强，下午三点也常小堵，五六点也不是大堵。 收费公路不多，大墨尔本总共两条（我猜整个维州也只有这两条），估计我用到的机会不会多，不过还是办了张Breeze卡，反正没有年费或最低消费。 油价不高，波动频繁且幅度较大，最便宜的E10汽油，我加过三次，每升分别是$0.99, $1.24, $1.17。 7-Eleven的便利店兼加油站都有轮胎充气泵，很体贴，用过两次了。 洗车店不多见，我觉得也没必要，雨水多，灰尘少，唯一需要清洗的是前挡风下面那条沟里的树枝、落叶和鸟粪，打算买个手持吸尘器，便无须考虑洗车问题了。 半年内需要当地驾照，据说考试不容易过，我得多练练。