含有〈制度〉标签的文章(290)

[译文]斯德哥尔摩的租房管制

Rent Control in Stockholm
斯德哥尔摩的租房管制

作者:Alex Tabarrok @ 2015-7-24
译者:Marcel ZHANG(@马赫塞勒张)   校对:史祥莆(@史祥莆)
来源:Marginal Revolution, http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/07/rent-control.html

Here’s an interesting letter from “Stockholm” to Seattle:

这儿有封“斯德哥尔摩”写给西雅图的信,很有意思:

Dear Seattle,

亲爱的西雅图:

I am writing to you because I heard that you are looking at rent control.

听说你正在着手租房管制,特此来信。

Seattle, you need to ask your citizens this: How would citizens like it if they walked into a rental agency and the agent told them to register and come back in 10 years?

西雅图,你该问问你的市民们:如果他们走进一个租房中介却被告知十年后再来登记,他们将作何感受?

I’m not joking. The image above is a scan of a booklet sent to a rental applicant by Stockholm City Council’s rental housing service. See those numbers on the map? (more...)

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Rent Control in Stockholm 斯德哥尔摩的租房管制

作者:Alex Tabarrok @ 2015-7-24 译者:Marcel ZHANG(@马赫塞勒张)   校对:史祥莆(@史祥莆) 来源:Marginal Revolution, http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/07/rent-control.html Here’s an interesting letter from “Stockholm” to Seattle: 这儿有封“斯德哥尔摩”写给西雅图的信,很有意思:
Dear Seattle, 亲爱的西雅图: I am writing to you because I heard that you are looking at rent control. 听说你正在着手租房管制,特此来信。 Seattle, you need to ask your citizens this: How would citizens like it if they walked into a rental agency and the agent told them to register and come back in 10 years? 西雅图,你该问问你的市民们:如果他们走进一个租房中介却被告知十年后再来登记,他们将作何感受? I’m not joking. The image above is a scan of a booklet sent to a rental applicant by Stockholm City Council’s rental housing service. See those numbers on the map? That’s the waiting time for an apartment in years. Yes, years. Look at the inner city – people are waiting for 10-20 years to get a rental apartment, and around 7-8 years in my suburbs. (Red keys = new apartments, green keys = existing apartments). 我可没开玩笑啊。上图是一张斯德哥尔摩市议会派发给租房申请人的宣传册扫描件。看见地图上那些数字了吗?那是租一间公寓所需等待的年数,没错,是年数。看看市中心,人们需要等上个一二十年才能租到一间公寓,而在郊区也要七八年的时间。(图中红钥匙指新公寓,绿钥匙指现有公寓。) Stockholm City Council now has an official housing queue, where 1 day waiting = 1 point. To get an apartment you need both money for the rent and enough points to be the first in line. Recently an apartment in inner Stockholm became available. In just 5 days, 2000 people had applied for the apartment. The person who got the apartment had been waiting in the official housing queue since 1989! 斯德哥尔摩市政府目前有个官方住房队列,在这个队列中耗上一天就赚得一个“租房点”。为了租到一间公寓,你既要准备好租金,还要赚足“租房点”才能熬到队伍前头。最近有处位于斯德哥尔摩市中心的公寓开放租赁了。仅在5天之内,有多达2000人前来申请。最终租到这间房的那个人,可是早在1989年就已经在官方住房队列里候着了!
(上图红字:近两千人仅为一间房而苦苦守候!) In addition to Soviet-level shortages, the letter writer discusses a number of other effects of rent controls in Stockholm including rental units converted to condominiums and a division of renters into original recipients who are guaranteed low rates and who thus never move and the newly arrived who have to sublet at higher rates or share crowded space. All of these, of course, are classic consequences of rent controls. 除了这种“苏联式短缺”之外,上述致函者还讨论了斯德哥尔摩的租房管制所造成的其他影响,包括:出租单元被转变成了公寓楼,还有将租客们分成先来的原始租客和后到的转租客这一效果,前者因为有着安享低房租的保证,因而绝不会自动搬走,而后者却不得不以更高的租价从这些二房东那里转租,或是选择与他们合租而忍受拥挤。上述一切,自然都是租房管制所造成的典型后果。 Addendum: More details on Sweden’s rent-setting system can be found here, statistics (in Swedish) on rental availability in Stockhom are here and a useful analysis of the Swedish housing crisis with more details on various policies (e.g. new construction is exempt for 15 years but there isn’t nearly enough) is here. 附录:欲了解有关瑞典的租金厘定体系的更多细节,请点击这里,有关斯德哥尔摩可租房屋的统计数据(瑞典语)请点击这里,一份关于瑞典住房危机的有用分析,其中含有有关诸多政策的细节(比如:新修建筑获免税已有15年,而建筑却仍供不应求【编注:此句意思不确定,exempt不知所指为何:exempt from what?】)请点击这里。 Jenkins wrote a comprehensive review of the literature on rent controls in 2009 that echoed what Navarro said in 1985 “the economics profession has reached a rare consensus: Rent control creates many more problems than it solves.” Jenkins在2009年写过一篇有关租房管制的文献综述,与Navarro早在1985年时所言不谋而合:“经济学界难得达成了一个共识:租房管制无异于饮鸩止渴。” Hat tip to Bjorn and Niclas who confirmed to me the situation in Stockholm and to Peter for the original link. 特别感谢Bjorn和Niclas,他们向我证实了斯德哥尔摩的实际情况;另外也要感谢Peter,是他为我提供了原始链接。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]住房管制在澳洲创造了奇迹

Are Aussie housing regulations the dumbest rules on Earth?
澳洲的房屋管制是否是世界上最愚蠢的规定?

作者:Scott Sumner @ 2015-6-7
译者:混乱阈值 (@混乱阈值)
校对:小册子(@昵称被抢的小册子)沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:TheMoneyIllusion, http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29551

Commenter Colin Docherty sent me an article on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s counterproductive attempt to hold down house prices with tight money:

评论员Colin Docherty发给我一篇关于澳大利亚储备银行试图用紧缩银根这种适得其反的手段来抑制房价的文章:【译注:作者收到的文章地址http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/housing-bubble-compels-rba-to-hold-rates-at-225pc-20150407-1mfyvh

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to defer its widely anticipated April rate cut for at least another month might have been inf(more...)

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Are Aussie housing regulations the dumbest rules on Earth? 澳洲的房屋管制是否是世界上最愚蠢的规定? 作者:Scott Sumner @ 2015-6-7 译者:混乱阈值 (@混乱阈值) 校对:小册子(@昵称被抢的小册子)沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:TheMoneyIllusion, http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29551 Commenter Colin Docherty sent me an article on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s counterproductive attempt to hold down house prices with tight money: 评论员Colin Docherty发给我一篇关于澳大利亚储备银行试图用紧缩银根这种适得其反的手段来抑制房价的文章:【译注:作者收到的文章地址http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/housing-bubble-compels-rba-to-hold-rates-at-225pc-20150407-1mfyvh
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to defer its widely anticipated April rate cut for at least another month might have been influenced by the increasingly pricey housing market, which it regards as posing a real “dilemma”. 外界普遍预期澳大利亚储备银行将在四月份降息,但其却出人意料地决定将降息往后推迟至少一个月。此举可能是受了房价日趋上扬的影响。在储备银行看来,房价的不断上涨让他们陷入了真正的“两难处境”。 According to UBS, in March the ratio of Australian dwelling prices-to-disposable household incomes equalled – and is presently surpassing – the previous record of 5.3 times set back in September 2003. And they predict it will climb further. 根据瑞士联合银行(UBS)给出的数据,三月份澳洲的住房价格与可支配家庭收入比已经追平——并且正在赶超——2003年9月创下的5.3倍的纪录。而且上升势头可能还会持续。
As a result, Aussie inflation is now sliding far below the 2.5% target, and unemployment has been climbing. This is the same policy the Fed tried in 1929. This is the same policy the Riksbank tried in 2010.  Do central bankers ever learn? 结果,澳洲目前通胀率远低于2.5%的目标,而失业率则一直在攀升。同样的经济政策,美联储(Fed)在1929年就用过了,瑞典中央银行(Riksbank)在2010年也用过了。中央银行的银行家们就不会吸取教训吗? Back in 2009 I ridiculed the idea of bubbles by pointing out that while all the English speaking countries had seen huge house price surges in the early 2000s, only the US and Ireland saw a crash.  Australian prices were particularly robust. But despite the bubblemongers being wrong about these countries, they continued to insist it was all a bubble. 2009年时我就嘲笑过那些认为房市存在泡沫的观点,那时我指出,尽管在本世纪头几年所有英语国家的房价都迅猛上涨,但只有美国和爱尔兰的房市出现了崩盘。而澳大利亚的房价尤其坚挺。尽管那些泡沫论贩子对这些国家的房市判断出错,他们依然坚持房地产市场全是泡沫。 OK, I can sort of understand how people could make that mistake in 2009. But now, six years later, Australian house prices are still up at the same lofty levels.  Is the term “bubble” now so elastic that it can fit a house price boom that’s occupied virtually the entire 21st century? 好吧,人们在2009年犯错还算情有可原。然而六年后的今天,澳大利亚的房价依然处在同样的高位。如果整个21世纪至今几乎一直在延续的房价上涨还能叫做是“泡沫”,那“泡沫”这个词的弹性也太大了吧? How about if prices are still high in 2020—will it still be a bubble?  How about 2030?  How about 2050? Of course the bubblemongers will refuse to answer these questions because like soothsayers they always want an “out” if their predictions fail.  They always want to be able to say; “You just wait and see.” 如果房价在2020年依旧很高,还是泡沫吗?2030年呢?2050年呢?当然这些泡沫论贩子会拒绝回答这些问题,因为他们就像算命先生那样,总能为自己失败的预言找到托词。他们永远会说:“你等着瞧好了。” And how about those people who said Bitcoin was a bubble at $25?  I’m will to buy coins from you guys at twice the price you said was a bubble back then. 那么那些在比特币价值25美元的时候说出现了泡沫的人怎么样了?我愿意用当初你们说是泡沫的价格的两倍跟你们购买比特币。 I still haven’t gotten to the dumbest policy on Earth.  Australia is the size of the continental US, with a population smaller than Texas.  Like Texans, Aussies should be able to afford comfortable single-family homes.  But in the right column of the article linked to above, I see links for these articles: 目前为止我还没说到地球上最愚蠢的政策呢。澳大利亚的国土面积和美国本土一样大,人口比德克萨斯州还少。和德州人一样,澳洲人应该能够买得起舒适的独户住宅。然而就在前面提到的文章的右边栏上,我看到了以下这些文章的链接:
  • Australia becoming a nation of landlords
  • 澳大利亚成了地主的国家
  • http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/australia-becoming-a-nation-of-landlords-20150605-ghhjpi
  • Melbourne developer experiments with micro-apartments, sliding walls
  • 墨尔本的房屋开发商尝试建造带滑动墙的微型公寓
  • http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/sliding-walls-tiny-apartments-and-how-to-solve-the-housing-shortage-20150605-ghgfmz
I can visualize microapartments in Hong Kong, but Australia? Are the zoning regulators there sadists?  What would cause an otherwise sensible country to have such insane housing rules that Sydney would end up with some of the highest land prices on Earth? 我能想象香港的微型公寓,但在澳洲建造微型公寓?澳洲土地规划者是施虐狂吗?是什么让这个本来理智的国家有如此疯狂的房屋规定,以致于悉尼要跻身世界上地价最贵的城市之一? Milton Friedman said: 米尔顿·弗里德曼说过:
If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand. 如果你让联邦政府负责管理撒哈拉沙漠,五年之内沙子就会短缺。
Well the Australian government was put in charge of land use in a country the size of the Sahara, and now they have microapartments. 好吧,人们让澳洲政府负责管理面积相当于撒哈拉沙漠的土地使用,于是现在就有了微型公寓。 I’m begging regulators there to make me look like a fool.  Pop that nonexistent housing bubble by changing the fundamentals.  Give landowners the freedom to build, like they have in Germany.  Please, make me look like a fool. 我倒是希望澳洲的监管者们能让我看起来像个笨蛋。通过改变经济基本因素来戳破那根本不存在的房市泡沫吧。像德国那样给予土地所有者建造房屋的自由吧。拜托了,让我看起来像个笨蛋吧。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]加拿大精简繁规缛章,美国行吗?

Canada Cuts Down On Red Tape. Could It Work In The U.S.?
加拿大精简繁规缛章,美国行吗?

作者:Uri Berliner @2015-7-25
译者:@苏格底柏德図         校对:晓舸 (@ShawXG)
来源:NPR
网址:http://www.npr.org/2015/05/26/409671996/canada-cuts-down-on-red-tape-could-it-work-in-the-u-s

Canada says it’s the first country with a law that eliminates one regulation for every new measure that’s adopted. The One-for-One Rule is designed to ease the burden on businesses.

加拿大宣称自己是世界上第一个采纳“一换一”规则的国家,这项法律规则要求:每出台一项新的监管措施,必须相应的排除一条旧的。此项规则旨在减轻企业的负担。

RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:   In Canada, the government has figured out a surefire way to slash red tape with a law that eliminates one regulation for every new one that’s created. The One-For-One Rule was adopted last month in a nice Canadian way, without political warfare. NPR’s Uri Berliner reports.

主持人,蕾妮·蒙塔在加拿大,政府想出了一种削减繁杂监管规章的可靠办法,为每项新出台的监管措施削减掉一项旧的。上个月,“一换一”规则以一种加拿大人特有的优雅方式而被采纳,没有引发政治纷争。

URI BERLINER, BYLINE: The story starts in 2001 in Canada’s beautiful west coast province of British Columbia. Laura Jones lives there, in Vancouver. She’s with the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. And she says back then, the economy of British Columbia was a mess, partly because there were so many time-consuming regulations. And she says some of them were pretty dumb.

文章署名,乌利·(more...)

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Canada Cuts Down On Red Tape. Could It Work In The U.S.? 加拿大精简繁规缛章,美国行吗? 作者:Uri Berliner @2015-7-25 译者:@苏格底柏德図         校对:晓舸 (@ShawXG) 来源:NPR 网址:http://www.npr.org/2015/05/26/409671996/canada-cuts-down-on-red-tape-could-it-work-in-the-u-s Canada says it's the first country with a law that eliminates one regulation for every new measure that's adopted. The One-for-One Rule is designed to ease the burden on businesses. 加拿大宣称自己是世界上第一个采纳“一换一”规则的国家,这项法律规则要求:每出台一项新的监管措施,必须相应的排除一条旧的。此项规则旨在减轻企业的负担。 RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:   In Canada, the government has figured out a surefire way to slash red tape with a law that eliminates one regulation for every new one that's created. The One-For-One Rule was adopted last month in a nice Canadian way, without political warfare. NPR's Uri Berliner reports. 主持人,蕾妮·蒙塔在加拿大,政府想出了一种削减繁杂监管规章的可靠办法,为每项新出台的监管措施削减掉一项旧的。上个月,“一换一”规则以一种加拿大人特有的优雅方式而被采纳,没有引发政治纷争。 URI BERLINER, BYLINE: The story starts in 2001 in Canada's beautiful west coast province of British Columbia. Laura Jones lives there, in Vancouver. She's with the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. And she says back then, the economy of British Columbia was a mess, partly because there were so many time-consuming regulations. And she says some of them were pretty dumb. 文章署名,乌利·贝陵尔:这事情始于加拿大美丽的西海岸,不列颠哥伦比亚省。劳拉·琼斯(Laura Jones)住在该省的温哥华市,就职于加拿大独立商业联盟(Canadian Federation of Independent Business)。她说,回想之前,不列颠哥伦比亚省的经济状况十分混乱,部分原因是有许多浪费时间的监管制度上。她认为其中一些监管实在愚蠢。 LAURA JONES: Forest companies were told what size nails they had to use the build a bridge. Restaurants were told what size televisions they could have in their establishments. Kids even were affected. They were being told they needed two permits to show a tadpole in their classroom at show and tell. 劳拉·琼斯:林业公司必须使用规定型号的钉子来造桥。旅店必须在店内摆设规定型号的电视机。甚至连孩子也难逃影响,他们必须先取得两项许可,才能在教室里上展示讲解课的时候向同学展示蝌蚪。 BERLINER: So the incoming administration in British Columbia said enough is enough. For every new rule that becomes law, two existing ones would have to go. And Laura Jones says it's worked. In British Columbia, regulation has been reduced by 40 percent. She says small business has benefited. 乌利·贝陵尔:所以不列颠哥伦比亚省新上任的政府决定,真是够了,不能再这么下去了。凡是新出台法律规则,都要相应的减少两条现有规则。劳拉·琼斯说这个办法效果非常好。不列颠哥伦比亚省现在已经有40%的监管项目被取消。她表示该省的小企业已因此而受益。 JONES: And there's been very little to no outcry about cutting into rules that are important to protect human health, safety and the environment. 劳拉·琼斯:然而在削减关乎人类健康、安全和环境的监管条目的事情上,总是会引来强烈抗议。 BERLINER: Eventually, British Columbia dialed it back to one for one, and that became the model for the entire country. For two years, one for one has been a federal policy, part of a broader attack on red tape. To give the effort credibility, the savings from eliminating regulations couldn't just be assumed. They had to be quantified. Tony Clement is a cabinet minister with Canada's ruling Conservative Party. 乌利·贝陵尔:最终,政府退而求其次,从“一换二”退至“一换一”规则,后者成了整个加拿大的榜样。经过两年之后,“一换一”已经成了一项联邦政策,这是对抗政府繁杂监管的一个重要力量。为了赋予这项规则以可信度,通过削减监管项目而节省花费这件事不能仅仅只是一个假设,它们必须得到量化。托尼·克莱门托是现执政加拿大的保守党内阁大臣。 TONY CLEMENT: We're trying to measure and benchmark our success. And in that way, it's a serious exercise, not just a - you know, a jingoistic political exercise. 托尼·克莱门托:我们正在尝试度量和评测我们所取得的成功。那是一种非常认真严肃的行动,而不是那种以势压人的政治运动。 BERLINER: Clement says small businesses are logging less time on paperwork - a reduction of hundreds of thousands of hours so far. Nineteen federal regulations have been eliminated, but the law won't allow cuts to protections for health, safety and the environment. That took any ideological edge off the act. When Canada's House of Commons voted to make the policy an actual law, the bill passed overwhelmingly. 乌利·贝陵尔:克莱门托说,小企业浪费在文书上的时间减少了——迄今已减少了上万小时。19条联邦监管规章已经被取消,但同时法律又规定不允许削减有关保护健康、安全和环境的监管。这条规定缓解了所有意识形态上的冲突。加拿大下院对是否将“一换一”规则写入法律进行了投票,结果以压倒性多数获得通过。 I saw that the vote was 245 to one. 我看到投票结果是245比1. CLEMENT: Yes, the Green Party was a bit skeptical. 托尼·克莱门托:是的,绿党对这项措施还是有点疑虑。 BERLINER: So even the socialists backed it? 乌利·贝陵尔:所以甚至社会主义者们也同意了这项政策? CLEMENT: They did indeed. Yeah. In fact, we're having a tussle with them as we move towards our election as to who is a better spokesperson for small business in Canada. 托尼·克莱门托:是的,确实。实际上,在临近选举前,我们跟他们就谁才是加拿大中小企业的更好代言人还有过一些争吵。 BERLINER: Here in the States, there is, of course, plenty of policy debate about the right level of regulation. Business groups say compliance with regulation cost the U.S. economy $2 trillion a year. Environmental, consumer and labor groups say these are mostly vital protections, and they often push for more of them. Laura Jones says that's a debate the public largely ignores. 乌利·贝陵尔:在美国,有很多关于政府监管强度是否合适的政治争论。工商业团体认为监管制度使得美国经济每年付出2万亿美金的代价。环境组织,消费者组织和劳工组织则表示这些监管中的大部分非常重要,他们还经常强烈要求出台更多的监管制度。劳拉·琼斯说,公众在很大程度上忽视了这些争论。 JONES: And that's what we're trying to change in Canada. And I think Canada, in this area, is ironically going to be a very good model for the U.S. 劳拉·琼斯:而在加拿大,这正是我们设法改变的状况。而我觉得,在这个领域,加拿大会颇具讽刺意味地成为美国的一个好榜样。 PAUL LIGHT: I think there's a reason why we've never used it, which is that it's a most impossible to implement without offending Congress. 保罗·特:我认为有一个原因导致了我们一直没有采纳“一换一”这样的规则,那就是这么做无疑会触怒国会。 BERLINER: That's Paul Light. He's a professor of public service at NYU, and he's been watching efforts to pare back bureaucracy since the 1980s. He says regulations don't get created without a legitimate reason. They reflect the desires of elected leaders. 乌利·贝陵尔:这位是保罗·莱特(Paul Light)。他是纽约大学公共服务专业的教授,他从1980年代就开始密切关注精简官僚机构的问题。他说,监管制度不会没正当理由就被制定出来。这些监管反映了民选领导人的欲望。 LIGHT: I get the pressure from business - and small businesses, in particular - to reduce red tape. 保罗·莱特:我感受到了来自企业,尤其是中小企业的,希望削减政府监管条目的压力。 BERLINER: But he says there's a better way to do it. Instead of a one-for-one swap, write smarter and more careful regulations. Uri Berliner, NPR News. 乌利·贝陵尔:但是他表示还有一个更好的办法,不一定要“一换一”,我们可以制订更精巧和审慎的监管条文。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]民主、自由与繁荣的未来

The Future of Democracy, Freedom, and Prosperity
民主、自由与繁荣的未来

作者:Arnold Kling @ 2015-7-14
译者:迈爸(@麦田的字留地)
校对:小聂
来源:askblog,http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-future-of-democracy-freedom-and-prosperity/

A simple topic for four of us to spend an hour discussing. The conclusion of my opening remarks:

一个简单的话题,我们四个花一小时讨论。我的开场白:

one sort of maybe fictional type scenario would be that you would get a sudden sovereign debt crisis in the United States that would take place in an environment where the political feelings are frayed–there’s a lot of controversy; people no longer see the legislators and the executive as having legitimacy for solving their problems(more...)

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The Future of Democracy, Freedom, and Prosperity 民主、自由与繁荣的未来 作者:Arnold Kling @ 2015-7-14 译者:迈爸(@麦田的字留地) 校对:小聂 来源:askblog,http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-future-of-democracy-freedom-and-prosperity/ A simple topic for four of us to spend an hour discussing. The conclusion of my opening remarks: 一个简单的话题,我们四个花一小时讨论。我的开场白:
one sort of maybe fictional type scenario would be that you would get a sudden sovereign debt crisis in the United States that would take place in an environment where the political feelings are frayed–there’s a lot of controversy; people no longer see the legislators and the executive as having legitimacy for solving their problems.They take to the streets.  There’s fighting; there’s violence. 或许可以设想这样一幕虚构场景:美国将陷入一场突如其来的主权债务危机,而那时候的政治环境已经大变,政治氛围变得焦躁好斗——总是争吵不休;人民不再认为立法和行政机构拥有解决他们的问题所需要的合法性。他们走上街头,诉诸武力和暴力。 And at that point the people are ready to turn to some kind of dictator to resolve the violence. So that’s kind of a fictional scenario. There’s certainly you can see either economic or political ways to avoid it. But that would be sort of my one pessimistic scenario relative to maintaining our open access order. Which, if we do maintain our open access order, I think eventually we do recover prosperity and we sort of maintain freedom. 这个时候,人们就准备好转而接受某种独裁者来解决暴力问题了。这是一种虚构场景。当然你可能会说,有经济或政治的方法来避免它。但是,和我们的开放秩序能够得以维持的前景相比,我也看到了类似这样的一幅悲观图景。当然,只要我们能够保持开放秩序,我想最终我们仍将恢复繁荣,并保证一部分的自由。
John Cochrane worries about John Cochrane则担心:
the vast attempt of our government to control economics from the big Dodd-Frank and Obamacare down to the small regulations against Uber and occupational licensing for hairdressers, and so forth. 政府对经济的管控已无所不用其极,大至多德-弗兰克法案(Dodd-Frank Act)【译注:全称《多德—弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法》,2010年制订,旨在加强金融市场监管,有关其实施效果,海德沙龙将在今后译介更多文章】、奥巴马医改,小至对Uber的管制,甚至理发师都需要职业许可证。 This enterprise has vast power. It’s increasingly politicized. And right now it’s used already to silence opposition to the regulatory fiefdoms. What bank dares to speak out against the Dodd-Frank Act? What health insurer dares to speak out against Obamacare? 这门行当权力巨大,且日益政治化。现在它已经可以在管制的领域让反对的声音消失。哪家银行敢公开反对多德-弗兰克法案?哪家医疗保险公司敢公开反对奥巴马的医改方案?
It seems to me that strong regulation often has the support, or at least the acquiescence, of incumbent business interests. The question is whether potential new competition is thwarted. Lee Ohanian, another speaker in this session, is pessimistic on that score. 在我看来,强监管政策常常能在市场现有的利益相关企业中找到支持者,或者至少是默许。问题是,这是否阻碍了潜在的新竞争者进入。这次会议的另一位发言者Lee Ohanian在这点上是悲观的:
Another recent study found that the decline in community banking accelerated considerably in the last few years, reflecting economies of scale in managing new regulation associated with Dodd-Frank. Small Business Administration says that lending to small businesses has declined by about 20% since 2008, which was of course the year of the Great Recession. And in 2013 only 1 new bank entered the banking industry. 最近的另一项研究发现,在过去几年中,社区银行业的衰退明显加速,反映了规模经济与实施多德-弗兰克法案有关的管制之间的关系【译注:这里隐含逻辑是:强监管带来更高的合规成本,而小企业在摊薄这项成本上不具规模经济,因而强监管政策实际上起到了削弱小企业竞争优势的作用】。据小企业管理局说,自2008以来,也就是经济大衰退的那一年,贷给小企业的钱已经下降了大约20%。而在2013年只有一家银行进入银行业。 So you look at the outcome of Dodd-Frank–declining competition, fewer banks, lack of entry, higher costs, regulators with broad mandates who make vague and far-reaching rules–this represents a sharp departure from the clear and specific limits on government. 所以多德-弗兰克法案的结果就是,竞争的趋弱、银行的减少、新入行者的稀缺和更高的成本。大权在握的监管机构制定的规则模糊却影响深远——它表明我们又一次急剧偏离了清晰而具体地限制政府权力这一原则。
编者按:这次对话的视频和录音在这个网页上可以找到:http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2015/07/lee_ohanian_arn.html 】 (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]西雅图见识了15美元最低工资法的后果

Seattle sees fallout from $15 minimum wage, as other cities follow suit
西雅图见识了15美元最低工资法的后果,其他城市亦步亦趋

作者:Dan Springer @ 2015-07-22
译者:史祥莆(@史祥莆)
校对:Marcel Zhang(@马赫塞勒张)
来源:FoxNews.com,http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/07/22/seattle-sees-fallout-from-15-minimum-wage-as-other-cities-follow-suit/

Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law is supposed to lift workers out of poverty and move them off public assistance. But there may be a hitch in the plan.

西雅图的15美元最低工资法,照理说是为了帮助就业者摆脱贫穷并脱离公共救济体系,但是这个计划可能存在纰漏。

Evidence is surfacing that some workers are asking their bosses for fewer hours as their wages rise – in a bid to keep overall income down so they don’t lose public subsidies for (more...)

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Seattle sees fallout from $15 minimum wage, as other cities follow suit 西雅图见识了15美元最低工资法的后果,其他城市亦步亦趋 作者:Dan Springer @ 2015-07-22 译者:史祥莆(@史祥莆) 校对:Marcel Zhang(@马赫塞勒张) 来源:FoxNews.com,http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/07/22/seattle-sees-fallout-from-15-minimum-wage-as-other-cities-follow-suit/ Seattle’s $15 minimum wage law is supposed to lift workers out of poverty and move them off public assistance. But there may be a hitch in the plan. 西雅图的15美元最低工资法,照理说是为了帮助就业者摆脱贫穷并脱离公共救济体系,但是这个计划可能存在纰漏。 Evidence is surfacing that some workers are asking their bosses for fewer hours as their wages rise – in a bid to keep overall income down so they don’t lose public subsidies for things like food, child care and rent. 有证据表明,一些员工在工资提升的同时,正在向他们的雇主要求更短的工作时间——以求压低总收入,这样他们才不会失去食品、育儿和租房方面的公共补贴。 Full Life Care, a home nursing nonprofit, told KIRO-TV in Seattle that several workers want to work less. 一家名为“终身照料”(Full Life Care)的非盈利家庭护理机构告诉西雅图的KIRO-TV电视台,他们的一些员工希望减少工作量。 “If they cut down their hours to stay on those subsidies because the $15 per hour minimum wage didn’t actually help get them out of poverty, all you’ve done is put a burden on the business and given false hope to a lot of people,” said Jason Rantz, host of the Jason Rantz show on 97.3 KIRO-FM. “如果他们因为每小时15美元的最低工资并不能真正帮他们摆脱贫穷而减少他们的工时以保持补贴,那么这一切不过是给企业增加了负担并给了很多人虚假希望,” KIRO-FM 97.3广播节目Jason Rantz show的主持人Jason Rantz如是说。 The twist is just one apparent side effect of the controversial -- yet trendsetting -- minimum wage law in Seattle, which is being copied in several other cities despite concerns over prices rising and businesses struggling to keep up. 这一麻烦只是时下颇为时髦却饱受争议的西雅图最低工资法的明显副作用之一,而该法案正在被其他若干城市复制,尽管有着种种对价格上涨和经营困难的忧虑。 The notion that employees are intentionally working less to preserve their welfare has been a hot topic on talk radio. While the claims are difficult to track, state stats indeed suggest few are moving off welfare programs under the new wage. 员工故意减少工作量以保持其福利的观点一直是电台节目上的热点话题。虽然这些见解很难被追踪核实,但州政府的统计数据确实表明几乎没有人在新工资政策下脱离福利计划。 Despite a booming economy throughout western Washington, the state’s welfare caseload has dropped very little since the higher wage phase began in Seattle in April. In March 130,851 people were enrolled in the Basic Food program. In April, the caseload dropped to 130,376. 尽管整个华盛顿州西部的经济处于繁荣之中,但西雅图的高薪规定自四月生效以来,州政府的待处理福利申请案数量却几乎没有下降。三月份,有130851人被纳入基本食品计划(Basic Food program)之中,这一数字在四月仅仅降低到了130376。 At the same time, prices appear to be going up on just about everything. 与此同时,似乎所有东西的价格都开始上涨。 Some restaurants have tacked on a 15 percent surcharge to cover the higher wages. And some managers are no longer encouraging customers to tip, leading to a redistribution of income. Workers in the back of the kitchen, such as dishwashers and cooks, are getting paid more, but servers who rely on tips are seeing a pay cut. 一些餐馆开始附加15%的额外费用以便补偿更高工资带来的成本。一些管理者不再鼓励顾客支付小费,这导致了一种收入再分配。在后厨工作的员工,例如洗碗工和厨师,将会有更多收入,但依赖小费的服务员的工资将会减少。 Some long-time Seattle restaurants have closed altogether, though none of the owners publicly blamed the minimum wage law. 一些长期经营的西雅图餐馆纷纷关门,尽管这些店主中没有一个将此公开归咎于最低工资法。 “It’s what happens when the government imposes a restriction on the labor market that normally wouldn’t be there, and marginal businesses get hit the hardest, and usually those are small, neighborhood businesses,” said Paul Guppy, of the Washington Policy Center. “当政府给劳动力市场施加正常情况下不应有的限制时,就会发生这种状况,处于边际上的企业受打击最沉重,而通常它们是些小型的社区企业,” 华盛顿政策中心(Washington Policy Center)的Paul Guppy如是说。 Seattle was followed by San Francisco and Los Angeles in passing a $15 minimum wage law. The wage is being phased in over several years to give businesses time to adjust. The current minimum wage in Seattle is $11. In San Francisco, it’s $12.25. 继西雅图之后,旧金山和洛杉矶也出台了15美元最低工资法。法案留出了几年的过渡期以便企业有时间作出调整适应。目前西雅图的最低工资是11美元,旧金山则是12.25美元。 And it is spreading. Beyond the city of Los Angeles, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors this week also approved a $15 minimum wage. 这种做法正在蔓延。不仅仅是洛杉矶市,洛杉矶县管理委员会(Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors)本周也通过了15美元最低工资法。 New York state could be next, with the state Wage Board on Wednesday backing a $15 wage for fast-food workers, something Gov.Andrew Cuomo has supported. 纽约州可能是下一个,和州长Andrew Cuomo一样,州工资委员会(Wage Board)周三也支持了针对快餐业工人的15美元最低工资标准。 Already, though, there are unintended consequences in other cities. 尽管这已经在其他城市造成了意想不到的后果。 Comix Experience, a small book store in downtown San Francisco, has begun selling graphic novel club subscriptions in order to meet payroll. The owner, Brian Hibbs, admits members are not getting all that much for their $25 per month dues, but their “donation” is keeping him in business. 旧金山城区的小书店Comix Experience已开始对图画小说俱乐部收取会费以便应付工资开销。店主Brian Hibbs承认,会员们得到的好处不值每月25美元的会费,但是他们的“赞助”让他能把生意维持下去。 “I was looking at potentially having to close the store down and then how would I make my living?” Hibbs asked. “我想可能要不得不关掉这家店了,那么接下来我将如何谋生呢?” Hibbs问道。 To date, he’s sold 228 subscriptions. He says he needs 334 to reach his goal of the $80,000 income required to cover higher labor costs. He doesn’t blame San Francisco voters for approving the $15 minimum wage, but he doesn’t think they had all the information needed to make a good decision. 迄今为止,他招徕到了228个会员。他说他需要334个才能达到80000美元的收入目标,以补偿抬高了的劳动成本。他并不责备旧金山选民赞成15美元最低工资法,但他并不认为拥有做出良好决策所需要充分信息。 【作者背景*Dan Springer joined Fox News Channel (FNC) in August 2001 as a Seattle-based correspondent. *Dan Springer于2001年8月作为驻西雅图通讯记者加入了福克斯新闻频道(Fox News Channel). (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

内华达、州权与制度竞争

【2015-08-05】

@海德沙龙 作为自由理念对政治现实的一种妥协,老弗里德曼提出了教育券方案,并不遗余力加以推行,以84岁高龄创立了弗里德曼教育选择基金会,如今这一长期努力终于结出了一批果实,教育券制度已在美国多个州得以施行,内华达最近通过的方案,是其中走得最远的一个 http://t.cn/RLjWul8

@海德沙龙:在主张限制政府权力的古典自由主义者(更不用说自由意志主义者了)看来,像教育这种直接关系到思想与宗教自由、传统维护和地方/群体文化独特性之保有的事情,尤其不能让政府插(more...)

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【2015-08-05】 @海德沙龙 作为自由理念对政治现实的一种妥协,老弗里德曼提出了教育券方案,并不遗余力加以推行,以84岁高龄创立了弗里德曼教育选择基金会,如今这一长期努力终于结出了一批果实,教育券制度已在美国多个州得以施行,内华达最近通过的方案,是其中走得最远的一个 http://t.cn/RLjWul8 @海德沙龙:在主张限制政府权力的古典自由主义者(更不用说自由意志主义者了)看来,像教育这种直接关系到思想与宗教自由、传统维护和地方/群体文化独特性之保有的事情,尤其不能让政府插手,然而在当代政治现实之下,要做到这一点已非常困难,教育券方案不失为一种可行的折中妥协。 @whigzhou: 内华达时常冷不丁给那些认为州权无用的人扇一个大耳光 @whigzhou: 内华达是美国各州之间制度竞争的一个缩影,她在历史上常常扮演制度实验室的角色,从婚姻法、博彩业、性交易、自动驾驶车……到现在的普适教育券,在许多自由化改革中都走在前面 @whigzhou: 内华达甚至在公司法改革上也曾引领潮流,早先,注册股份公司是要从州议会拿到特许状的,是内华达的率先改革迫使各州跟进,至少大大加速公司自由注册制在美国的发展 @whigzhou: 有关西部各州为吸引移民而展开的制度竞争和创新实验,特别是内华达的案例,可参见布尔斯廷《美国人》第三卷第七章 @whigzhou: 内华达为世人演示了,自由甚至在沙漠里也可以带来繁荣  
[译文]内华达州颁布普适择校法案

Nevada Enacts Universal School Choice
内华达州颁布普适择校法案

作者:Lindsey M. Burke @ 2015-6-8
翻译:乘风(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:Eartha(@王小贰_Eartha)
来源:National Review,http://www.nationalreview.com/article/419438/nevada-enacts-universal-school-choice

On Tuesday night, Nevada governor Brian Sandoval signed into law the nation’s first universal school-choice program. That in and of itself is groundbreaking: The state has created an option open to every single public-school student. Even better, this option improves upon the traditional voucher model, coming in the form of an education savings account (ESA) that parents control and can use to fully customize their children’s education.

6月2日晚,内华达州普适择校方案经州长Brian Sandoval签署后成为法律,这是全国第一个普适(more...)

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Nevada Enacts Universal School Choice 内华达州颁布普适择校法案 作者:Lindsey M. Burke @ 2015-6-8 翻译:乘风(@你在何地-sxy) 校对:Eartha(@王小贰_Eartha) 来源:National Review,http://www.nationalreview.com/article/419438/nevada-enacts-universal-school-choice On Tuesday night, Nevada governor Brian Sandoval signed into law the nation’s first universal school-choice program. That in and of itself is groundbreaking: The state has created an option open to every single public-school student. Even better, this option improves upon the traditional voucher model, coming in the form of an education savings account (ESA) that parents control and can use to fully customize their children’s education. 6月2日晚,内华达州普适择校方案经州长Brian Sandoval签署后成为法律,这是全国第一个普适择校方案。这本身是一个创举:每位公立学校的学生都将获得一个全新的选择。更妙的是,这一选择自由是对传统的教育券模式的进一步改良,家长将拥有一个教育储蓄账户(education saving account, ESA),可以完完全全地量身定制子女的教育。 Yes, school choice has often advanced through the introduction of vouchers and charter schools — which remain some of the most important reforms for breaking up the government education monopoly. But vouchers were, to quote researcher Matthew Ladner, “the rotary telephones of our movement — an awesome technology that did one amazing thing.” States such as Nevada (and Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, and Tennessee) have implemented the iPhone of choice programs. They “still do that one thing well, but they also do a lot of other things,” Ladner notes. 是的,教育券和特许学校的引入推进了教育选择计划,而且这项改革仍然属于破除政府教育垄断的最重要的改革之列。但是,用研究人士Matthew Ladner的话来说,教育券是“我们事业中的拨盘式电话——一项令人称奇的出色技术,”内华达(以及亚利桑那、佛罗里达、密西西比及田纳西)等州则已经安装上了择校方案中的iPhone。如Ladner所言,它们“仍能发挥以前的作用,但同时也增加了许多新功能”。(见:http://excelined.org/news/icymi-5-questions-matthew-ladner-foundation-excellence-education/) As of next year, parents in Nevada can have 90 percent (100 percent for children with special needs and children from low-income families) of the funds that would have been spent on their child in their public school deposited into a restricted-use spending account. That amounts to between $5,100 and $5,700 annually, according to the Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice. 从明年起,Nevada将把拟用于公立学校学生的资金中的90%存入家长的指定用途消费账户(对于有特殊需求或贫困家庭的学生,转存比例是100%)。据Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice说,资金数额约在每年5100-5700美元之间。 Those funds are deposited quarterly onto a debit card, which parents can use to pay for a variety of education-related services and products — things such as private-school tuition, online learning, special-education services and therapies, books, tutors, and dual-enrollment college courses. It’s an à la carte education, and the menu of options will be as hearty as the supply-side response — which, as it is whenever markets replace monopolies, is likely to be robust. 资金分季度打入一张借记卡,父母可将其用于购买多种多样与教育相关的服务和产品,如私立学校学费、线上学习、特殊教育服务及治疗、书本、家教、双学分大学课程。这是一种点菜式教育,菜单选项的丰盛度将视乎供应方对此作出的响应而定——任何时候,只要市场取代垄断,供方的响应总是相当活跃的。 Notably, families can roll over unused funds from year to year, a feature that makes this approach particularly attractive. It is the only choice model to date that puts downward pressure on prices. Parents consider not only the quality of education service they receive, but the cost, since they can save unused funds for future education expenses. 值得注意的是,家庭可以将尚未使用的资金连年转存,这一点使得上述办法特别具有吸引力。这是迄今为止唯一能对价格施压的选择模式。家长们不但会考虑孩子所受教育的质量,还会考虑价格,因为存下来的资金能用于未来的教育开支。 Accountability is infused throughout the ESA option. Funding is distributed into the accounts quarterly, and parents provide receipts for expenditures to the state. In the event there is a misuse of funds, the subsequent quarter’s distribution can be withheld and used to rectify it. Students must also take a national norm-referenced test in math and reading, a light touch that doesn’t dictate students take a uniform state test. ESA方案设置了充分的问责机制。资金按季发放至各个账户,家长们则需向州里提供消费收据。一旦出现资金滥用,就可以扣留下一季度的分配资金用于纠正此前的滥用。学生们还必须参加数学和阅读常模参照测验(norm-referenced test)【译注:一种考评方式,评价的是被测者在同类人中的相对水平,而非知识或技能的绝对掌握程度,后一种测量通常要求采用标准参照测验(criterion-referenced test)】,这是一种轻规制(light touch)模式,不要求学生参加全州统考。 So imagine now what the future of education could look like in Nevada. Instead of being assigned to brick-and-mortar schools based on their parents’ ZIP codes, students can instead have their state funds deposited into an ESA. Parents can then craft a learning plan that matches best to the unique learning styles and needs of their children. 现在你可以想象未来内华达州的教育会是何种情形了。学生们不会再根据其父母的邮政编码被分派到传统实体校园里面,取而代之的是拥有一个储存州教育资金的ESA账户。家长们可以根据其子女独特的学习方式和需求,精心拟定最为合适的学习计划。 Perhaps that means Johnny spends the morning at a private school, and then in the afternoon gets private instruction in algebra from a tutor who meets him at home. At night, Johnny takes a dual-enrollment college course online. 这可能意味着强尼上午会在一个私立学校学习,下午在家里接受代数家教的单独辅导,晚上则选修一门双学分大学网络课程。 The future of education financing is here. And the future is about separating the financing of education from the delivery of services. ESAs don’t dismantle public financing of education; they just recognize that education, although publicly financed, doesn’t have to be delivered through government schools. 教育财政的未来已经到来。这个未来就是,教育财政将与教育服务的提供相分离。ESA并不会削弱教育的公共财政性质,它只是承认,公共财政支持的教育并不是非得由公办学校提供不可。 Nevada understands that, and understands it to such an extent that state policymakers and Governor Sandoval went all-in with a universal option. In other words, families in the Silver State have struck gold. 内华达州充分理解了这一点,该州政策制订者们和Sandoval州长已经把赌注全部押在了普适择校方案上。换句话说,银山州【译注:这是内华达州的别称】的家家户户都找发现了金矿。 *Lindsey M. Burke is the Will Skillman Fellow in Education Policy at the Heritage Foundation. *Lindsey M. Burke是美国传统基金会教育政策方向Will Skillman研究员。 (编辑:@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]德州经济安然无恙

No Economic Mess in Texas
德州经济安然无恙

作者:WSJ @ 2015-7-22
译者:赵鲲
校对:晓舸 (@ShawXG)
来源:《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journay),http://www.wsj.com/articles/no-economic-mess-in-texas-1437433836

Oil prices collapse but the Lone Star State keeps creating jobs.
油价崩溃并未阻止孤星州持续创造就业机会

A funny thing has happened to the economic miracle in Texas that liberals predicted would go bust along with oil prices. America’s foremost state job creator of the past decade continues to produce opportunity and employment.

有趣的是,虽然自由派一直在预测“德州奇迹”将随油价崩溃而破产,但这个过去十年美国创造就业最多的州仍在持续创造着就业和经济机遇。

Last week’s “beige book” release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that despite the struggling oil and gas industry, the Texas economy is still enjoying moderate growth. Since prices in the oil patch began sliding a year ago, pundits on the political left have been waiting for evidence to declare the Texas model a failure. They’re still waiting.

上周达拉斯联邦储备银行(more...)

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No Economic Mess in Texas 德州经济安然无恙 作者:WSJ @ 2015-7-22 译者:赵鲲 校对:晓舸 (@ShawXG) 来源:《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journay),http://www.wsj.com/articles/no-economic-mess-in-texas-1437433836 Oil prices collapse but the Lone Star State keeps creating jobs. 油价崩溃并未阻止孤星州持续创造就业机会

A funny thing has happened to the economic miracle in Texas that liberals predicted would go bust along with oil prices. America’s foremost state job creator of the past decade continues to produce opportunity and employment.

有趣的是,虽然自由派一直在预测“德州奇迹”将随油价崩溃而破产,但这个过去十年美国创造就业最多的州仍在持续创造着就业和经济机遇。

Last week’s “beige book” release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that despite the struggling oil and gas industry, the Texas economy is still enjoying moderate growth. Since prices in the oil patch began sliding a year ago, pundits on the political left have been waiting for evidence to declare the Texas model a failure. They’re still waiting.

上周达拉斯联邦储备银行发布的褐皮书显示,虽然石油和天然气行业举步维艰,德州经济却仍然在以温和的速度增长。自从去年油价开始暴跌以来,那些左翼评论员们就一直在等待着能证实“德州模式”失败的证据出现。但直到现在,他们仍然没有等到。

Last month the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in 2014 the Texas economy grew by a sizzling 5.2%, second fastest in the country after North Dakota’s 6.3% and more than twice the U.S. average. That followed 5.5% growth in 2013 and 6.2% in 2012. And 2014 was the year oil prices fell to $53 a barrel in December from more than $107 in June. The Texas rig count in May was down 58% from a year ago.

上月联邦经济分析局发布的报告显示,德州经济在2014年度表现良好,增长率达到5.2%,在全美仅次于北达科他州6.2%排名第二,超过全美平均水平的两倍。在之前的2013和2012年度,德州的增长率分别为5.5%和6.2%。值得一提的是,油价已从2014年6月的每桶超过107美元跌至了12月的每桶53美元。而今年5月德州运转中的钻机数量相比一年前下降了58%。

Liberal Governors, tired of looking bad next to Texas, may have hoped to catch a break as the full impact of cheap oil hit the Lone Star State in 2015. And Texas is creating jobs more slowly this year—1.1% growth through May versus 3.6% in the same period last year. Lower-paying positions in hospitality have substituted for higher-paying energy jobs.

受够了被德州比得很难看的自由派州长们,也许希望当低油价的影响在2015年全面冲击“孤星州”时,他们能够缓口气。德州今年创造就业的速度的确在放缓——整个5月工作岗位仅仅增长了1.1%,而去年同期这个数字则是3.6%。低工资的酒店服务业岗位填补了高工资的能源行业岗位消失所带来的空缺。

But the overall economic resilience is a far cry from the Texas recessions that followed previous oil busts. Unemployment in the state, 4.3% in May, was still well below the national average of 5.5% that month.

但是相比之前的几次油价暴跌之后德州所经历的经济衰退,这次油价下跌中经济的整体韧性已经强得多了。德州在5月的失业率是4.3%,这个数字仍要比全美 5.5% 的平均水平低了不少。

Some credit goes to the foresight of energy companies that made themselves less vulnerable with better balance sheets. In a report specifically focused on the energy capital of Houston, the Dallas Fed notes recent improvement in job growth and says that “refining, petrochemicals and service industries are managing to offset oil-producer woes.” Statewide, education and health services employment has also been strong.

一些有远见的能源企业提前储备了资金,他们通过改善资产负债表使自己变得更健壮。在一份特别关注能源之都休斯顿的报告中,达拉斯联储提到了最近就业增长的改善,该报告指出,“炼油,石化和服务业的增长基本抵消了原油开采行业下滑所带来的问题。”在全州范围内,教育和医疗产业的就业势头也同样强劲。

Meanwhile in Austin, which has little exposure to the energy industry, business other than government is booming. May job growth surged at an annual rate of 6.6%, including “a significant increase in high-paying scientific and technical services jobs.” Texas is now America’s top technology exporter, surpassing long-time leader California.

同时在与能源行业几乎没有什么联系的奥斯汀,政府服务之外的经济正在蓬勃发展。奥斯汀5月的就业增长率飙升到了年化6.6%的水平,其中还包括“高收入的科技服务领域内就业机会的显著增长。”德州现已成为了全美第一大的技术输出州,超越了长期以来一直领先的加州。

Imagine how the economy of Washington, D.C. would suffer and how high the local unemployment rate would soar if government spending fell by half in less than a year. But Texas is mainly in the business of wealth creation, not redistribution.

设想一下,如果政府开支在一年之内缩减一半,华盛顿特区的经济将会遭受多大的打击,当地的失业率又将会飙升到什么样的水平。但是德州经济主要依赖的是财富创造,而不是财富再分配。

The Texas strategy of avoiding burdensome taxation and regulation has attracted a variety of businesses across many industries that have diversified the state economy. Texas still has no personal or corporate income tax. New Gov. Greg Abbott has been annoying the left even more by taking a hatchet to business franchise and property levies. He recently signed into law tax cuts amounting to $4 billion over two years despite the reduced flow of revenue due to falling oil production. This is the opposite of the tax-raising strategy pursued by Illinois, Connecticut, Maryland and New York when revenues decline.

德州尽可能减少繁重的税收和管制的经济策略吸引了横跨多个行业的多种类型的企业,这让德州经济变得更加多元化。德州至今仍然没有个人和公司所得税。新任州长Greg Abbott进一步削减了特许经营权税和财产税,这一举措让左派感到更加气恼。虽然政府收入因为油价的下跌已经在减少,但他最近还是签署了一项在两年内减税40亿美元的计划。这与伊利诺伊,康涅狄格,马里兰和纽约等州在收入下降时采取的加税措施完全背道而驰。

The Texas Governor was in New York urging more businesses to consider moving south and west. And while service businesses of many types are currently growing in Texas, don’t expect energy and related manufacturing to stay down forever. Mr. Abbott says that “we are on the cusp of once again transforming the energy world” with new Gulf Coast terminals for exporting liquefied natural gas.

这位德州州长曾在纽约呼吁更多的企业考虑搬到地处西南部的德州。各种类型的服务业企业正在德州茁壮成长,同时也不要以为能源以及与之相关的制造业会一直处于低迷状态。Abott先生表示,随着用于出口液化天然气的新终端在墨西哥湾沿岸建成投产,“我们再一次站在了改变能源世界的前沿”。

Economic dependence on commodity prices can be a boom and bust proposition, as Canada’s Alberta province and Australia are experiencing. But the resilience in Texas is proving again that limiting government is an economic growth strategy for all seasons.

依赖大宗商品价格的经济体是可能面临繁荣-衰退循环,这正是加拿大阿尔伯塔省和澳大利亚所正在经历的。但德州经济所表现出来的韧性,则又一次证明了,限制政府规模是一种在各种经济环境下都能促进增长的策略。

(编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

庄园vs自耕农

【2015-07-27】

@阿尔及利亚苏丹陈毓秀 费孝通先生说乡土中国是差序格局,与之对立的则是群己权界界限分明的团体格局。我比较好奇的是西欧中世纪的农村是不是差序格局,因为我觉得团体格局更像是城市兴起之后才有的产物。如果西欧中世纪的农村更接近团体格局,而非差序格局,那么造成这样现象的物质/制度因素又是什么呢?

@whigzhou: 中世纪西欧农村的主流社会结构是庄园制,领主通过管家经营庄园(相比之下,中国地主自中古后就不再经营土地,仅仅收租),由于庄园制涉及(more...)

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【2015-07-27】 @阿尔及利亚苏丹陈毓秀 费孝通先生说乡土中国是差序格局,与之对立的则是群己权界界限分明的团体格局。我比较好奇的是西欧中世纪的农村是不是差序格局,因为我觉得团体格局更像是城市兴起之后才有的产物。如果西欧中世纪的农村更接近团体格局,而非差序格局,那么造成这样现象的物质/制度因素又是什么呢? @whigzhou: 中世纪西欧农村的主流社会结构是庄园制,领主通过管家经营庄园(相比之下,中国地主自中古后就不再经营土地,仅仅收租),由于庄园制涉及大量管理工作、公共事务和权利划分,比如公地/份地之分、封建义务、多圃制下的轮作安排,早期还有领主法庭承担司法职能,等等 @whigzhou: 直到后来圈地运动瓦解了庄园制,家庭农庄才成为主流社会结构 @whigzhou: 庄园是一种企业,而且其结构之组成不依赖于家庭/家族等自然关系,因而确实对权利边界的确定和基层地方处理公共事务的能力提供了发展机会,为此后的乡村/地方自我治理能力打下了基础,也为人民参与公共/政治事务培养了习惯,这一点我们在北美殖民者身上可以看得很清楚。 @whigzhou: 五月花号殖民者在船上就开始制定宪法了,西进运动者在大篷车上就开始组织政府了,狂野西部在政府力量极为微弱的条件下也维持了相当水平的法律和秩序,相比之下,华人移民社区只有家族纽带和黑社会  
[译文]赏金猎人的正义追寻

The Bounty Hunter’s Pursuit of Justice
赏金猎人的正义追寻

作者:Alex Tabarrok @ 2011-冬
译者:陈小乖(@lion_kittyyyyy),带菜刀的诗人
校对:Tianyi Xu (@pathto)
来源:The Wilson Quarterly,http://wilsonquarterly.com/stories/the-bounty-hunters-pursuit-of-justice/

When felony defendants jump bail, bounty hunters spring into action. It’s a uniquely American system, and it works.

当重罪嫌疑人弃保潜逃时,赏金猎人便会立刻展开行动。这是一套美国独有的制度,并且它行之有效。

Andrew Luster had it all: a multimillion-dollar trust fund, good looks, and a bachelor pad just off the beach in Mussel Shoals, California. Luster, the great-grandson of cosmetics legend Max Factor, spent his days surfing and his nights cruising the clubs. His life would have been sad but unremarkable if he had not had a fetish for sex with unconscious women. When one woman alleged rape, Luster claimed mutual consent, but the videotapes the police discovered when they searched his home told a different story. Eventually, more than 10 women came forward, and he was convicted of 20 counts of rape and sentenced to 124 years in prison. There was only one problem. Luster could not (more...)

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The Bounty Hunter’s Pursuit of Justice 赏金猎人的正义追寻 作者:Alex Tabarrok @ 2011-冬 译者:陈小乖(@lion_kittyyyyy),带菜刀的诗人 校对:Tianyi Xu (@pathto) 来源:The Wilson Quarterly,http://wilsonquarterly.com/stories/the-bounty-hunters-pursuit-of-justice/ When felony defendants jump bail, bounty hunters spring into action. It's a uniquely American system, and it works. 当重罪嫌疑人弃保潜逃时,赏金猎人便会立刻展开行动。这是一套美国独有的制度,并且它行之有效。 Andrew Luster had it all: a multimillion-dollar trust fund, good looks, and a bachelor pad just off the beach in Mussel Shoals, California. Luster, the great-grandson of cosmetics legend Max Factor, spent his days surfing and his nights cruising the clubs. His life would have been sad but unremarkable if he had not had a fetish for sex with unconscious women. When one woman alleged rape, Luster claimed mutual consent, but the videotapes the police discovered when they searched his home told a different story. Eventually, more than 10 women came forward, and he was convicted of 20 counts of rape and sentenced to 124 years in prison. There was only one problem. Luster could not be found. Andrew Luster曾经应有尽有:数百万美元的信托基金、英俊的外表以及一套位于加州马尔斯肖尔斯(Mussel Shoals)的海边单身公寓。Luster是传奇彩妆品牌蜜丝佛陀(Max Factor)创始人的曾孙。他过着白天在海上冲浪,夜里流连往返于各个夜店的日子。要不是他沉湎于迷奸女性,他的生活不过是可怜又平常的。当一名女性声称被Luster强奸时,他表示是两厢情愿的。可警方从他住所搜出的录影带却表明并非如此。最终,十多名女性站了出来,指证Luster的罪行。法院裁定Luster 20项强奸罪名成立,并判处他124年监禁,但问题是:Luster已不见踪影。 Shortly before he was expected to take the stand, Luster withdrew funds from his brokerage accounts, found a caretaker for his dog, and skipped town on a $1 million bail bond. The FBI put Luster on its most-wanted list, but months passed with no results. In the end, the authorities did not find him. But Luster was brought to justice—by a dog (or at least a man who goes by that name). 在出庭前夕,Luster从他的经纪账户中撤出了资金,为他的狗找了个看护,然后放弃了一百万美元的保释金溜之大吉。FBI将Luster列为最重要的通缉犯,但历经数月依旧毫无进展。官方机构始终没能找到他。但最终Luster还是被一条狗(或至少是以此名义出现的一个人)绳之以法。 Duane Chapman, star of the A&E reality TV show Dog: The Bounty Hunter, tracked Luster for months. He picked up clues to Luster’s whereabouts from old phone bills and from Luster’s mother, who inadvertently revealed that her son spoke fluent Spanish. He also gleaned useful information from a mysterious Mr. X who taunted him by e-mail and who may have been Luster himself. Finally, a tip from someone who had seen Dog on television brought Chapman to a small town in Mexico known for its great surfing. Days later, he and his team spotted Luster at a taco stand, apprehended him, and turned him over to the local police. A&E频道真人秀节目《赏金猎人大狗(DogThe Bounty Hunter)》中的明星Duane Chapman追踪Luster数月。他通过Luster的旧电话账单,以及Luster母亲无意间提及的她儿子能讲一口流利的西班牙语等线索来判断Luster的行踪。此外,他还从神秘人X先生嘲讽他的电子邮件中搜集到有用的信息,这位神秘人可能就是Luster本人。最后,来自赏金猎人大狗的观众的线报将Chapman带到了一个以冲浪闻名的墨西哥小镇。数日后,Chapman和他的团队在一个墨西哥夹饼小摊前发现了Luster,将他一举拿下送往当地警局。 Most people don’t realize how many fugitives from the law there are. About one-quarter of all felony defendants fail to show up on the day of their trial. Some of these absences are due to forgetfulness, hospitalization, or even imprisonment on another charge. But like Luster, many felony defendants skip court with willful intent. The police are charged with recapturing these fugitives, but some of them are chased by an even more tireless pursuer, the bounty hunter. 大多数人并没有意识到有多少逃犯仍逍遥法外,大约四分之一的重罪嫌疑人没有在庭审之日按时出庭。有些是因为忘了出庭时间,或正住院接受治疗,甚至正因另一起案件而接受监禁。但还有许多重罪嫌疑人是像Luster一样,蓄意潜逃。警察负有将这些逃犯抓捕归案的责任,但有些逃犯则是由一群更加不知疲倦的人追捕的——他们就是赏金猎人。 Bounty hunters and bail bondsmen play an important but unsung role in a legal system whose court dockets are too crowded to provide swift justice. When a suspect is arrested, a judge must make a decision: set the suspect free on his own recognizance until the court is ready to proceed, hold the suspect in jail, or release the accused on the condition that he post a bail bond. A bond is a promise backed by incentive. If the suspect shows up on the trial date, he gets his money back; but if he fails to show, the money is forfeited. We don’t want to deprive the innocent of their liberty, but we also don’t want to give the guilty too much of a head start on their escape. Bail bonds don’t solve this problem completely, but they do give judges an additional tool to help them navigate the dilemma. 由于法庭日程过于繁忙而无法保证及时的审理,赏金猎人和保释担保人在法律系统中扮演着重要却默默无闻的角色。当嫌疑人被逮捕后,法官必须先在自行具结监外候审,羁押以及交保候审之间做出决定。保释是一种基于激励的承诺。如果嫌疑人在庭审当日出庭,他便能取回保释金,如果他未能按时出庭,那么这笔钱就会被没收。我们不想剥夺无辜者的自由,但也不希望给罪犯逃跑的机会。保释金制度并不能完全解决这个问题,但它确实为法官在两难之间作出权衡提供了一个额外手段。 Bail might be a rich man’s privilege were it not for the bail bondsman. (Many bondsmen are women, but “bondsperson” doesn't have quite the same ring, so I’ll use the standard terminology.) In return for a non-refundable fee, usually around 10 percent of the bond, a bondsman will put up his own money with the court. A typical bond might run $6,000. If the defendant shows up, the bondsman earns $600. But if the defendant flees, the bondsman potentially can forfeit $6,000. Potentially, because when a fugitive fails to appear, the court gives the bondsman a notice that essentially says, “Bring your charge to justice soon or your money is mine.” A bondsman typically has 90 to 180 days to bring a fugitive back to justice, so when a defendant jumps bail, the bondsman lets the dogs loose. 保释也许是一种富人特权,但幸好还有保释担保人。保释担保人会替被保释者支付全额保释金,通常被保释者会支付保释金的百分之十左右作为回报。一笔典型的保释金可能要6000美元。如果嫌疑人按时出庭,那么担保人就能赚取600美元,但如果嫌疑人潜逃,那么这6000美元就有被没收的危险。这是因为当逃犯没能按时出庭时,法院会给担保人一张通知,大意为“快把你的被保释人带到法庭,不然你的钱就是我的了”。担保人通常有90到180天的时间来找到逃犯,将他送到法庭,所以当被告弃保潜逃时,担保人就会让赏金猎人出动。 Actually, that last image suggesting a massive manhunt is misleading. Bail bond firms are often small, family-run businesses—the wife writes the bonds and the husband, the “bounty hunter,” searches for clients who fail to show up in court. Although a bondsman never knows when a desperate client might turn violent, his job is usually routine, as I found out when Dennis Sew volunteered to show me the ropes. Dennis has been in the business for more than 20 years and in 2009 was named agent of the year by the Professional Bail Agents of the United States. Nevertheless, I was apprehensive as I drove to Baltimore early one morning to try my hand at bounty hunting. 事实上,抓捕行动并非人们想象中那样兴师动众。保释担保公司通常都是些夫妻店,老婆提供担保,老公则扮演赏金猎人的角色,搜寻抓捕未能按时出庭的客户。虽然担保人无从知晓什么时候绝望的客户会使用暴力,但Dennis Sew的志愿演示让我了解到,通常担保人的工作只是例行公事。Dennis从事这行已经20多年了,2009年还被美国职业保释代理协会(Professional Bail Agents of the United States)评选为年度代理人。尽管如此,在一个清晨,当我开车到巴尔的摩(Baltimore)尝试当一回赏金猎人时,我仍心存顾虑。 When Dennis and I meet, he hands me a photo showing our first fugitive of the day. I’ll be honest. I was expecting to see a young African-American male. What can I say? It’s Baltimore and I've seen every episode of The Wire. But I’m surprised. Taken a few years ago in better times, the picture shows an attractive young woman, perhaps at her prom. She has long blond hair and bright eyes. She is smiling. 当Dennis和我见面时,他递给我一张当天的第一个追捕对象的照片。坦白地说,我以为会是一个年轻的黑人男性。怎么说呢?毕竟这里是巴尔的摩【译注:巴尔的摩市的犯罪率显著高于美国平均水平,种族结构以黑人为主,根据2010年的人口普查,黑人占当地人口的63%。】,而且我看了每一集《火线》(The Wire)【译注:《火线》是一部现实主义电视剧,由HBO在美国播出,讲述了马里兰州巴尔的摩市警察与犯罪团伙间交锋的故事。曾有媒体报道称,一些本地的黑人学生表示,这个电视剧揭了黑人社区的伤疤,他们自己就认识许多和剧中角色类似的人。】但我吃了一惊,照片上是一个迷人的年轻女性,拍摄于几年前还年轻的时候,可能就在她的高中毕业舞会上。她有着金色的长发,微笑着,眼睛闪闪发亮。 We drive to the house where a tip has placed her. It’s a middle-class home in a nice suburb. Children’s toys are strewn about the garden. I’m accompanied by Dennis and two of his coworkers—a former police officer and a former sheriff’s deputy. One of them takes the back while Dennis knocks. A woman still in her nightclothes answers. She does not seem surprised to have four men knocking at her door this early in the morning. She volunteers that we can search the house, and eventually we get the whole story from her. 我们驱车前往线索所指的她的栖身之处。那是一座坐落于郊外,地段颇好的中产阶级的房子,孩子们的玩具散落在花园里。我由Dennis和他的两名同事陪同,他们分别曾是警员和副警长。当Dennis敲门时其中一人走向后门。一个还穿着睡衣的女人开了门,对于四个男人一大清早敲开她门这事她似乎一点都不吃惊。她主动提出让我们搜查整个房子,最后,我们从她那儿听到了故事的全部。 “Chrissy,” our fugitive, is the woman’s niece. Chrissy was at the house two days before and may return. The once attractive young woman has had her life ruined by drugs. Or she has ruined her life with drugs—sometimes it’s hard to tell. She is now a heroin addict whose boyfriend regularly beats her. The aunt is momentarily shocked when we show her the photo. No, she doesn't look like that anymore—her hair is brown, her face is covered with scabs and usually bruised, and she weighs maybe 85 pounds. “Be gentle with her,” the aunt says, even though, she predicts, “she will probably fight.” Chrissy,我们的追捕对象,是这个女人的侄女。她两天前曾住在这里,而且可能还会回来。这个曾经如此迷人的年轻女人被毒品毁了一生,或者,她用毒品毁了她自己的一生,有时候这很难区分。她现在吸食海洛因成瘾,男朋友还常常打她。当我们向她阿姨出示那张照片时,她一惊。不,她看上去已经不再是这个样子了:她现在的头发是棕色的,脸上满是痂和淤青而且体重只有大概85磅。虽然她阿姨估计Chrissy很可能会和我们对抗,但她还是对我们说,“对她友善点。” The aunt gives us another location to scout: a parking lot where Chrissy and her mother are supposedly living out of a car. We are about to leave when the aunt thanks us for being quiet, because there’s a child in the house who was scared the last time the police came by. The child is Chrissy’s son. We drive to the location and look for the car. Dennis and his deputies see what looks like the vehicle and knock on one of the dirty windows, peering intently into the interior. The car is empty. Dennis and his deputies will return later. Chrissy的阿姨给了我们另一个搜寻地点:一处停车场,Chrissy和她的母亲应该住在一辆车里。在我们即将离开的时候,她阿姨对我们保持安静表示了感谢。因为上次来的警察惊吓到了屋里的孩子,他是Chrissy的儿子。我们开到那个停车场,搜寻Chrissy和她母亲住的那辆车。Dennis和他的助手们看见了一辆看着可能是搜寻目标的汽车,敲了敲其中一扇脏乎乎的车窗,同时目不转睛地注意着车内的动静,车里空无一人。Dennis和他的助手们稍后会再回来。 What it takes to be a successful bounty hunter is mostly persistence and politeness. On most days your leads don’t pay off, so you need to visit and revisit the fugitive’s home, work, and favorite hangouts. Waiting is a big part of the game. Why politeness? Well, where do the leads come from? From people like Chrissy’s aunt—relatives and friends who might not talk to the police but who will respond to a kind word. 成为一个成功的赏金猎人关键在于坚持不懈和以礼待人。大多数时候你的线索都不会有什么帮助,所以你需要不断地造访追捕对象的家、工作场所以及他平日里最爱去的地方。等待是这场游戏的重要组成部分。那么,为什么要以礼待人呢?想想,你的线索从哪儿来?从像Chrissy的阿姨这样的人那里来,他们是追捕对象的亲戚、朋友。他们对警察可能不理不睬,但他们会回应友善的交谈。 Bounty hunters are polite even to the fugitives who, after all, are also their customers, and sadly, bounty hunters rely a lot on repeat business. One customer of a firm owned by the same family that runs the one Dennis works for told him proudly, “My family and I have been coming to Frank’s Bail Bonds for three generations.” 赏金猎人甚至对追捕对象都很友善。因为追捕对象终究也是他们的客户。而且,可悲的是,赏金猎人依靠大量回头客。一个和Dennis所在公司被同一家族拥有的另一间公司的客户曾自豪地对他说:“我们家族三代人都找Frank的保释担保公司。”【编注:这句原文比较费解,从字面看,这里似乎分别提到了服务方和客户方的两个家族,但依我看,作者本意可能是:两个“family”指的是同一个家族,而且是客户方的。】 Most fugitives don’t fight, and Dennis is eager to avoid confrontation. Cowboys don’t last long in this business. Most bounty hunters have a working relationship with police officers and will sometimes call on them to make the arrest once a fugitive has been located. 大多数追捕对象并不反击,同时Dennis也极力避免冲突。冲动的人在这行干不久。大多数赏金猎人与警员有着工作伙伴关系,有时一旦追捕对象被锁定,他们便会打电话给警察让他们采取逮捕行动。 A bounty hunter also benefits from being prepared. A typical application for a bond, for example, requires information about the defendant’s residence, employer, former employer, spouse, children (along with their names and schools), spouse’s employer, mother, father, automobile (including description, tags, and financing), union membership, previous arrests, and so forth. In addition, bond dealers need access to all kinds of public and private databases. Noted bounty hunter Bob Burton says that a list of friends who work at the telephone, gas, or electric utility, the post office, welfare agencies, and in law enforcement is a major asset. Today, familiarity with the Internet and computer databases is a must. 充分的准备也对赏金猎人大有好处。例如,一个典型的担保申请需要被告人提供居住地址、现雇主、前雇主、配偶、孩子(以及他们的姓名和学校)、配偶的雇主、父母、汽车(包括描述、车牌、车贷)、所属工会、之前的被捕记录等一系列信息。此外,担保人还会查看所有公共和私人的数据库信息。著名赏金猎人Bob Burton说,拥有在电信公司、加油站、电力公司、邮局、福利机构以及执法机构等各行各业工作的朋友是一笔巨大的财富。如今,熟悉互联网和电脑数据库也是一项必备技能。 Good bond dealers master the tricks of their trade. The first three digits of a Social Security number, for example, indicate the state where the number was issued. This information can suggest that an applicant might be lying if he claims to have been born elsewhere, and it may provide a clue about where a skipped defendant has family or friends. 好的担保人能够轻易识别交易中的小陷阱。比如,社保号前三位表示该社保号的发行州,如果申请人声称出生在其他州,那么他可能在说谎。此外,这一信息还能为逃跑的被告人在哪里有亲戚朋友提供线索。 If at all possible, bail bondsmen get a friend or family member to cosign the bond. The reason is simple. A defendant whose bond is cosigned is less likely to flee. As Dennis told me, “In my line of work, I deal with some mean people, people who aren't afraid of me or the police. But even the mean ones are afraid of their mom, so if I can get Mom to list her house as collateral, I know the defendant is much more likely to show up when he is supposed to.” A defendant whose bond is cosigned is also more likely to be caught if he does flee, because the bondsman will remind the cosigner that if the fugitive can’t be found, it’s not just the bondsman who will be left holding the bag. 如果有可能,保释担保人会找一个被担保人的朋友或家庭成员共同担保。原因很简单,被共同担保的被告人逃跑的概率更小。正如Dennis告诉我的,“在我工作的过程中,我常要应付一些无赖,他们既不怕我也不怕警察,但即便是这样的人还是会对自己的母亲心存畏惧,所以,如果我能让他的母亲用房产做抵押,被告人基本上就会按时出庭。” 同时,一个有共同担保人的被告即使逃跑也更可能被抓住,因为保释担保人会提醒共同担保人要是嫌疑犯找不到了,包袱可不是保释担保人一人背。 Bounty hunters have robust rights to arrest fugitives. They can, for example, lawfully break into a suspect’s home without a warrant, pursue and recover fugitives across state lines without necessity of extradition proceedings, and search and seize without the constraint of the Fourth Amendment’s “reasonableness” requirement. Just like everyone else, however, bounty hunters must obey the criminal statutes. A bounty hunter who uses unreasonable force or mistakenly enters the home of someone who is not a bail jumper is subject to criminal prosecution. 赏金猎人具有逮捕逃犯的坚实权利。比如,他们不需要搜查令就能合法地破门进入嫌疑人家中、无需引渡程序就能实行跨州追捕遣返,不受宪法第四修正案“合理性”要求的约束搜查及扣押逃犯。【译注:第四修正案,是美国权力法案的一部分,旨在禁止无理搜查和扣押,并要求搜查和扣押状的发出有相当理由的支持。】但是,赏金猎人仍需像其他人一样服从刑事法规。使用不恰当武力或者误闯非逃保人住宅的赏金猎人将会受到刑事起诉。 The prerogatives of bounty hunters flow from the historical evolution of bail. Bail began in medieval England as a progressive measure to help defendants get out of jail while they waited, sometimes for many months, for a roving judge to show up to conduct a trial. If the local sheriff knew the accused, he might release him on the defendant’s promise to return for the hearing. More often, however, the sheriff would release the accused to the custody of a surety, usually a brother or friend, who guaranteed that the defendant would present himself when the time came. 赏金猎人拥有的特权是保释制度历史演变的结果。取保候审作为起源于中世纪英格兰的一项进步措施,旨在帮助等候巡回法官出席主持审判期间的被告人免除牢狱之灾,这等待时间有时长达数月。如果当地的执法人员认识被告人,他可能会凭被告人的承诺将其释放听候传唤。然而,更多时候,执法人员会将被告人置于担保人的监护之下,担保人通常可以是被告的一个兄弟或者朋友,他保证被告人在审判到来之际会及时出庭。 So, in the common law, custody of the accused was never relinquished but instead was transferred to the surety—the brother became the keeper—which explains the origin of the strong rights bail bondsmen have to pursue and capture escaped defendants. Initially, the surety’s guarantee to the sheriff was simple: If the accused failed to show, the surety would take his place and be judged as if he were the offender. 所以,在普通法中,法院并未解除对被告人的羁押,只是这种责任转移到了担保人手上——兄弟成为了监管人——这也解释了保释担保人所拥有的追捕逃跑被告人这项牢固权利的起源。最初,担保人给执法人员的保证很简单:如果被告人没有在出席庭审,担保人就要接替被告人的位置并接受审判,就像他才是违法的人。 The English system provided lots of incentives for sureties to make certain that the accused showed up for trial, but not a lot of incentive to be a surety. The risk to sureties was lessened when courts began to accept pledges of cash rather than of one’s person, but the system was not perfected until personal surety was slowly replaced by a commercial surety system in the United States. That system put incentives on both sides of the equation. Bondsmen had an incentive both to bail defendants out of jail and to chase them down should they flee. By the end of the 19th century, commercial sureties were the norm in the United States. (The Philippines is the only other country with a similar system.) 英国司法系统给予担保人极大激励,促使其确保被告出席审判,但没有提供足够激励使人愿意为他人担保。当法院开始接受现金抵押保证而不是人身保证的时候,担保人的风险大大减小,但是直到私人担保制逐渐被美国的商业担保制度所取代,这项制度才日渐完善。商业担保制度在这两种情况下对担保人都会产生激励【编注:原文的字面意思似乎是“该制度在(衡量成本收益的)天平两侧都放上了激励”】,担保人既有动机将被告人保释出狱,也有动机在被告潜逃时去抓捕他们。19世纪末的美国,商业担保制度已成为常态。(菲律宾是美国之外仅有的一个拥有类似制度的国家。) Bail was widely admired as a progressive institution when the alternative was jail, but in the 1950s and 60s many judges and law professors began to think that the alternative to bail should be release on a defendant’s own recognizance. Bail looked increasingly like a conservative institution that kept people, especially poor people, in jail. Many opinion makers came to support the creation of pretrial services agencies that would investigate defendants and recommend to judges whether they could be safely released on their own recognizance. In essence, the agencies would replace the judgment of bail bondsmen with the judgment of a professional bureaucracy. 作为一项代替羁押的先进制度,保释制广受美誉,但是在1950年代和60年代,许多法官和法学教授开始认为,保释应由被告人自行具结所取代。保释越发看起来像是把人——特别是穷人——关进监狱的保守制度。许多意见领袖开始站出来支持创建审前服务机构,这些机构会调查被告人并建议法官他们能否自行具结从而得以安全释放。本质上,这种机构将会用专业官僚制度取代保释担保人的判断。 In the early 1960s, the Vera Institute of Justice’s Manhattan Bail Project in New York City began gathering information about local defendants’ community ties and residential and employment stability and summarizing it in a numerical scoring system that it used to identify those who could be recommended for release on their own recognizance. The experiment was successful. The failure-to-appear rate among felony defendants the project recommended for release was no higher than the rate among those released on bail. Largely on the basis of these results, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Federal Bail Reform Act of 1966, which created a presumption in favor of releasing defendants on their own recognizance. 1960年代早期,纽约市的维拉司法研究所(Vera Institute of Justice)开展的曼哈顿保释实验(Manhattan Bail Project)就开始收集当地被告人的社区关系、居住、就业稳定性方面的信息,并且总结了一套用于辨别个人是否可以被认可为通过自行具结即可获释的打分系统。这个实验很成功。实验建议释放的身负重罪者的未出庭率不高于那些因保释释放的群体。很大程度上基于这些结果,美国总统林登·约翰逊(Lyndon B. Johnson)签署了1966年的联邦保释改革法,这项法律为支持释放自行具结被告人创造了前提。 Although the new law applied only to the federal courts, the states have widely emulated the reforms. Every state now has some kind of pretrial services program, and four (Illinois, Kentucky, Oregon, and Wisconsin) have outlawed commercial bail altogether. In its place, Illinois introduced the government bail or “deposit bond” system. The defendant is required to deposit with the court a small percentage of the face value of the bond. 尽管新法仅适用于联邦法院中,但是各州已广泛仿效这项改革。如今,每个州都拥有某些审前服务计划,其中四个州(伊利诺斯、肯塔基、俄勒冈和威斯康辛)已经宣布商业保释制度不合法。在其辖区内,伊利诺斯州引进了一套被称为政府保释或“担保债券”(depositbond)的制度。它要求被告将债券面值的一小部分交存法院。 If the defendant fails to appear, he may lose the deposit and be held liable for the full value of the bond. But while a defendant in a commercial bail system who shows up in court must still pay the bondsman a fee, those who do so in jurisdictions with systems like Illinois’s get all their money back (less a small service fee in some cases). And the only people empowered to chase down a defendant who has fled are the police. 如果被告人没能出席,他将失去交存法院的那部分存款并对债券的全部面值负责。而在商业保释制度下的被告人,即使在出席了庭审的情况下仍然必须给担保人支付一定的费用,那些在像伊利诺伊州法律系统的审判权范围内出席庭审的人则可以拿回所有的钱(某些情况下需要支付一点点服务费用)。另外,这种制度下唯一有权追捕逃跑被告的是警察。 The results of the Manhattan Bail Project seemed to support the position of progressives who argued that commercial bail was unnecessary. But all that the findings really demonstrated was that a few carefully selected felony defendants could be safely released on their own recognizance. In reality, the project allowed relatively few defendants to be let go and so could easily cherry pick those who were most likely to appear at trial. As pretrial release programs expanded in the late 1960s and early 70s, failure-to-appear rates increased. 曼哈顿保释实验的结果看似支持那种认为商业保释多余的进步主义立场。然而其发现所证明的不过是:一些精心挑选出来的重罪被告能够以自行具结安全释放。事实上,此实验只给了相对较少的被告以自由,因而挑选那些极有可能出庭的人就不是什么难事。 随着1960年代末70年代初审前释放计划的展开,未出庭率就上升了。 Today, when a defendant fails to appear, an arrest warrant is issued. But if the defendant was released on his own recognizance or on government bail, very little else happens. In many states and cities, the police are overwhelmed with outstanding arrest warrants. In California, about two million warrants have gone unserved. Many are for minor offenses, but hundreds of thousands are for felonies, including thousands of homicides. 如今,只要被告人没能出席,逮捕令便会签发。但是如果被告人是以自行具结或政府保释而被释放的,逮捕令往往不会起到什么作用。在许多州和城市中,警察面对大把大把未执行的逮捕令而焦头烂额。在加利福尼亚州,约有两百万张逮捕令未被执行。他们当中大多只是轻罪,但是仍有几十万人是重罪犯,其中还包括数以千计的杀人犯。 In Philadelphia, where commercial bail has been regulated out of existence, The Philadelphia Inquirer recently found that “fugitives jump bail . . . with virtual impunity.” At the end of 2009, the City of Brotherly Love had more than 47,000 unserved arrest warrants. About the only time the city’s bail jumpers are recaptured is when they are arrested for some other crime. One would expect that a criminal on the lam would be careful not to get caught speeding, but foresight is rarely a prominent characteristic of bail jumpers. Routine stops ensnare more than a few of them. When the jails are crowded, however, even serial bail jumpers are often released. 在法律规定商业保释非法的费城,《费城问询报(The Philadelphia Inquirer)》最近发现“逃犯逃保…实际上不受惩罚。”2009年年底,这个友爱之城【译注:费城又被称为友爱之城(City of Brotherly Love)/span>】尚有超过47, 000张未执行的逮捕令。只有因犯下其他罪行而被逮捕,这个城市的逃保者才会被重新逮捕。有人可能以为潜逃的罪犯会小心行事以免被抓到超速马上再次被捕,但是拥有如此先见之明的逃保者少之又少。例行拦车检查抓住了他们中的不少人。当监狱人满为患时,即使是屡次逃保的罪犯通常也可以得到释放。 The backlog of unserved warrants has become so bad that Philadelphia and many other cities with similar systems, including Washington, D.C., Indianapolis, and Phoenix, have held “safe surrender” days when fugitives are promised leniency if they turn themselves in at a local church or other neutral location. (Some safe surrender programs even advertise on-site child care.) That’s good for the fugitives, but for victims of crime, both past and future, justice delayed is justice denied. 未执行逮捕令的积压问题越来越严峻,像费城还有其他许多拥有类似制度的城市,如华盛顿特区、印第安纳波利斯和凤凰城,已经设立“安全自首日”,当逃犯去教堂或其他中间地带自首时承诺给他们从轻发落(一些安全自首计划甚至打出代为照顾孩子的广告)。对于逃亡者来说固然很好,但对于犯罪行为的受害者——无论过去的还是将来的——,迟来的正义即非正义。 Unserved warrants tend not to pile up in jurisdictions with commercial bondsmen. In those places, the bail bond agent is on the hook for the bond and thus has a strong incentive to bring those who jump bail to justice. My interest in commercial bail and bounty hunting began when economist Eric Helland and I used data on 36,231 felony defendants released between 1988 and 1996 to investigate the differences between the public and private systems of bail and fugitive recovery. Our study, published in The Journal of Law and Economics in 2004, is the largest and most comprehensive ever written on the bail system. 存在商业担保人的司法辖区内,未执行逮捕令一般不会积压成山。在那些地区,保释担保机构负担保释金,从而他们有着极其强烈的动机将逃保者带上法庭。经济学家Eric Helland和我曾使用1988至1996年间释放的36,231个重罪犯的数据来调查政府和私人保释及追逃系统的差别,我对商业保释和赏金追捕的兴趣就是从那时候开始的。我们的研究成果发表在了2004年的The Journal of Law and Economics杂志上,也是迄今关于保释制度最详细并且最全面的文章。 Our research backs up what I found on the street: Bail bondsmen and bounty hunters get their charges to show up for trial, and they recapture them quickly when they do flee. Nationally, the failure-to-appear rate for defendants released on commercial bail is 28 percent lower than the rate for defendants released on their own recognizance, and 18 percent lower than the rate for those released on government bond. 我们的研究印证了我在现实经验中的发现:保释担保人和赏金猎人使被告人按时出庭,一旦被告人逃保,他们也能及时将他们绳之以法。就全国而言,在商业保释中释放的被告人未出庭率比以自我担保形式保释的未出庭率低28%,比以政府担保形式释放的未出庭率低了18%。 Even more important, when a defendant does skip town, the bounty hunters are the ones who pursue justice with the greatest determination and energy. Defendants sought by bounty hunters are a whopping 50 percent less likely to be on the loose after one year than other bail jumpers. 更重要的是,当被告人真的逃保了,赏金猎人会怀着极大的决心和精力去伸张正义。那些被赏金猎人追捕的被告人在一年之后仍逍遥法外的概率比其他逃保者低了惊人的50%。 In addition to being effective, bail bondsmen and bounty hunters work at no cost to the taxpayers. The public reaps a double benefit, because when a bounty hunter fails to find his man, the bond is forfeit to the government. Because billions of dollars of bail are written every year and not every fugitive is caught, bond forfeits are a small but welcome source of revenue. 除了富有效率之外,保释担保人和赏金猎人是在没有花费纳税人一分钱的条件下工作的。公众获得了双重好处,因为赏金猎人没能找到他的目标的话,政府便会没收保释金。因为每年开出了数十亿的保释金,并且不是每一个逃犯都能被捉拿归案,没收的保释金虽然不多,也是一笔相当可观的收入。 At the federal level, forfeits help fund the Crime Victim Fund, which does what its name suggests, and in states such as Virginia and North Carolina they yield millions of dollars for public schools. Indeed, budget shortfalls around the nation are leading to a reconsideration of commercial bail. Oregon, which banned commercial bail in 1974, is considering a controversial bill to reinstate it, and even Illinois, nearly 50 years after establishing its alternative system, may once again allow bail bondsmen. 从联邦层面来说,罚没金可用以资助犯罪受害人基金(Crime Victim Fund),其作用顾名思义。同时,在弗吉尼亚和北卡罗来纳等州罚没金资助了公立学校几百万美元。事实上,全国性的预算赤字迫使人们重新考虑商业保释。1974年就禁止了商业保释的俄勒冈州,现在正考虑通过一项颇具争议的法案来恢复它,甚至连伊利诺斯州在建立起替代制度近五十年后,也可能会再一次允许保释担保人的存在。 Bail bondsmen monitor defendants, guide them through the court process, and help them show up for trial. When defendants skip town, it’s the bounty hunters who track them down. But despite the benefits of commercial bail, bondsmen and bounty hunters don’t get a lot of thanks. The American Bar Association has said that the commercial bail business is “tawdry,” and Supreme Court justice Harry Blackmun once called it “odorous.” 保释担保人监视着被告人,引导他们通过法律程序,并且帮他们按时出庭。当被告逃跑了,正是赏金猎人去追捕他们。但是除了商业保释能够带来的收益之外,担保人和赏金猎人没得到什么感谢。美国律师协会就曾经评论商业保释行业“道德低下”,最高法院法官Harry Blackmun也曾称之为“浑身散发臭气”。 After Dog Chapman arrested the serial rapist Andrew Luster and delivered him to the Mexican police, Dog was the one who ended up in jail. Bounty hunting is illegal in Mexico, and Chapman was charged with kidnapping despite the fact that (according to him) he had a local police officer with him at the time of the arrest. It surely didn't help Chapman’s case that he was not trying to recover a bond that he had posted, since Luster had put up his own money. Luster was quickly extradited by the FBI, which offered Chapman no gratitude or assistance with the Mexican authorities. As if to rub salt in the wound, the judge in the Luster case refused even to reimburse Chapman for his expenses out of the $1 million Luster had forfeited. 在Dog Chapman逮捕了连环强奸案犯Andrew Luster并将其移交至墨西哥警方之后,他自己却被投入监狱。赏金猎人在墨西哥是不合法的,而墨西哥方面不顾在抓捕现场有一名当地警员陪同的事实(根据Dog Chapman的说法)而指控他绑架罪。在Chapman的案件中,他并非在追回他所支付的担保这一事实显然对他极为不利,因为Luster是用自己的钱做的担保。很快,Luster就被FBI引渡回国,对于Chapman,FBI并未对他表示任何感激,或者在与墨西哥当局交涉中提供协助。在Luster一案中,法官甚至拒绝从Luster被没收的一百万美元中拿出一部分偿付Chapman的开销,真有点伤口上撒盐的味道。 Dog Chapman’s television show has brought him and the bail bond industry plenty of fame and notoriety, but Chapman is a controversial figure among bondsmen. The famed bounty hunter’s checkered history includes prison time, drug abuse, and charges of racism, and many bondsmen think that “Dog” doesn't do much for their image. Bondsmen don’t want to be the dogs of criminal justice; they want to be recognized as professionals working alongside police, lawyers, and judges. They are tired of being called “odorous.” Bounty hunters want some respect. The record shows that they've earned it. 尽管Dog Chapman的电视秀已经带给他本人和保释担保行业无数毁誉,在保释担保人圈子里Chapman仍是一个颇具争议的人物。这位著名的赏金猎人波澜起伏的经历包括蹲监狱、滥用药物和种族歧视指控,许多保释担保人认为Chapman并没有为改善他们的形象做多少努力。担保人不想成为刑事审判的走狗;他们更希望被视为同警察、律师和法官合作的专业人士。他们厌倦了“浑身散发臭气”的名声。赏金猎人希望得到一些尊重。而事实表明,他们也应当得到这份尊重。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

公共品、政府与私人机构

【2015-07-29】

@阿尔及利亚苏丹陈毓秀 请问,有木有消防以及公安部门市场化成功的例子?@whigzhou

@whigzhou: 美国很多啊,地方消防服务很多是市场化的,治安服务也是,另外早先许多司法服务也部分市场化,比如从私人从法院拿到逮捕令可以自己去抓人,企业从法院拿到授权也可以组织自己的治安队,近年来一些监狱也市场化了,实际上美国州以下的地方政府机构很大程度上有私人企业的性质,早期更明显。

@whigzhou: 美国地方政府的概念和中国的完全不同(more...)

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【2015-07-29】 @阿尔及利亚苏丹陈毓秀 请问,有木有消防以及公安部门市场化成功的例子?@whigzhou @whigzhou: 美国很多啊,地方消防服务很多是市场化的,治安服务也是,另外早先许多司法服务也部分市场化,比如从私人从法院拿到逮捕令可以自己去抓人,企业从法院拿到授权也可以组织自己的治安队,近年来一些监狱也市场化了,实际上美国州以下的地方政府机构很大程度上有私人企业的性质,早期更明显。 @whigzhou: 美国地方政府的概念和中国的完全不同,很不像“政府”,每个机构因事而设,互不隶属/统辖,且服务范围交错重叠,财政来源也五花八门,相比中国地方政府,更像私人机构,系统性的介绍可参考Ostrom夫妇写的《美国地方政府》 @暂时只看书不旅行了-zny: 那趋势呢?是越来越像“政府”了,还是相反? @whigzhou: 据Ostrom介绍(见第三章第三节),二战后的大趋势是越来越像官僚政府,造成这一变化的主要力量是联邦资助和福利项目 @whigzhou: Edward Peter Stringham新书Private Governance,po主可能有兴趣  
国家与和平

【2015-07-16】

@大象公会 【猎头者,霍布斯的诅咒】胆小慎点 | 只为猎取人头而杀人,曾是广泛存在于从美洲、南太平洋、东南亚到华南地区的习俗,各地对猎头的理由和动机解释完全不同,是什么原因让这些地区变成了人人恐惧的高危地带。作者:@whigzhou

@人格显示器: 问题在于反复的博弈为何没有带来和平?

@whigzhou: 在局部(小共同体或联盟内部)和短时期内带来过和平,但都不太长久。均衡被打破的常见原因有:1)寿命太短,均衡常依赖于大人物之间的个人信任,也因一个大人物的死亡而打破;2)饥荒等灾难导致的绝望之举;3)一方力量增长打破均势……

@whigzhou: 4)但最根本也最难以遏制的因素是:资源竞争的激烈程度,使得每个群体内部的失败者 不得不向外寻求出路,铤而走险,非洲的年龄组制度便是一例,这些部落财产和女性资源被年长男性完全霸占,每一代男性都要等到30多岁,叔叔们死的差不多了,才有机会娶到老婆,等不了的,只能到外面找。

@whigzhou: 所谓年龄组,就是由部落内同龄男性组成的战斗/劫掠团队,经过成人仪式考验后组成,对外发动攻击,抢牲口抢女人,杀戮驱逐竞争者(more...)

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【2015-07-16】 @大象公会 【猎头者,霍布斯的诅咒】胆小慎点 | 只为猎取人头而杀人,曾是广泛存在于从美洲、南太平洋、东南亚到华南地区的习俗,各地对猎头的理由和动机解释完全不同,是什么原因让这些地区变成了人人恐惧的高危地带。作者:@whigzhou @人格显示器: 问题在于反复的博弈为何没有带来和平? @whigzhou: 在局部(小共同体或联盟内部)和短时期内带来过和平,但都不太长久。均衡被打破的常见原因有:1)寿命太短,均衡常依赖于大人物之间的个人信任,也因一个大人物的死亡而打破;2)饥荒等灾难导致的绝望之举;3)一方力量增长打破均势…… @whigzhou: 4)但最根本也最难以遏制的因素是:资源竞争的激烈程度,使得每个群体内部的失败者 不得不向外寻求出路,铤而走险,非洲的年龄组制度便是一例,这些部落财产和女性资源被年长男性完全霸占,每一代男性都要等到30多岁,叔叔们死的差不多了,才有机会娶到老婆,等不了的,只能到外面找。 @whigzhou: 所谓年龄组,就是由部落内同龄男性组成的战斗/劫掠团队,经过成人仪式考验后组成,对外发动攻击,抢牲口抢女人,杀戮驱逐竞争者 @whigzhou: 这种模式在澳洲北部Tiwi人中发展到极端,部落内资源被老男人垄断,男性在40岁之前基本上无望在部落内部娶妻,问题上熬到这个年龄之前很可能死了,你说他们怎么可能不铤而走险搏一下? @香港的谭叔: 唉。去看看理性乐观派。辉总这篇文章说过头了 @whigzhou: 《理性乐观派》我恐怕比任何人读的都仔细,书很好,但我不得不说里德利在这个问题上犯了错误,详见我的两篇评论:文化发动机:市场交易vs互惠交易 ,国家起源:定居农业vs商业 @whigzhou: 总结一下:1)前国家社会的交易以互惠式为主,而互惠交易的特点是区分熟人/陌生人,朋友/敌人,规范之在熟人/朋友间发展,对待其他人可以毫无规则和底线,且毫无道德包袱,2)前国家社会也有少量非互惠式的市场交易,但从事这些贸易的人同时也是武装团伙,当抢劫更有利时,他们不会犹豫。 @香港的谭叔: 辉总其实也应该了解一下有贸易和没有贸带来的分別。不是我说的。是理性乐观派这书的主旨。把国家政府当成秩序的主要来源有很多问题错误 @whigzhou: 我完全同意,除国家之外,秩序还可以有很多重要来源,自发秩序也是我常挂在嘴边的词,但我不得不承认:这些秩序在前国家时代确实未能带来和平 @whigzhou: 作为有着无政府理想的人,这事实让我很遗憾,但我不能假装看不见。假如我们想象一个平行世界,国家晚出现几千年,假以时日,私人组织或许能够找到更好的均衡,但事实上,国家抢得了先机,抢到了作为大型社会秩序独家供应商的地位,并且排挤和压制了与之竞争的其他潜在供应商, 很遗憾~ @tertio:如果邓巴数大一个或几个数量级,情况也许不同 @whigzhou: 或许寿命长几倍更管用。历史上最接近于成功的私人组织是日耳曼封建制,典型的封建系统其实是个私人组织,一切都是私权,但后来的历史表明,其结构性缺陷使它无法为一个流动性大社会提供秩序,而宪政/法治的发展是王权扩张和国家化的结果 @黄章晋ster: 我在想,如果有个超大但却是连续而破碎的群岛,而且物产不均,或许可以出现这种的演化。 @whigzhou: 嗯,再给波利尼西亚一千年~ @只配叫猪:王朝就是私人组织啊 @whigzhou: 国家/私人不是这么分的,只要符合如下条件的实体,就是国家(无论该实体是不是个人):它所执行的规范要求由它垄断暴力,即,除非经它许可或授权,任何人不得对他人使用武力 @whigzhou: 一个不主张不谋求这一垄断地位的秩序供应商(比如保险公司或者非排他性仲裁者),就是私人组织而非国家 @人格显示器:所谓的公权,不过是把个人的所有权分成股份给予更多人,本质上还是私有制的。 @whigzhou: 区别在制度性垄断(所谓制度性,是指其所执行的规范规定了自己的垄断地位),如果这个保险公司不主张垄断地位,就是私人性质的 @whigzhou: 详细分析见我对诺齐克的评论 @格林黑风: 辉总,美版无间道里一个黑社会boss 说我是此地老大,我没说可以打谁,谁就不能被打。这黑社会不能算国家吧? @whigzhou: 如果他把认真执行这一条,那他就是想成为国家,如果他大致上做到了,那他就是国家了,被称为黑社会的,都是离成功太远的那些
经济自由度

【2015-07-15】

@whigzhou: 传统基金会的最新经济自由度排名 http://t.cn/hbuqBi

@whigzhou: 近年最吸引我注意的变化是以色列,其排名从2013年第51到2014年第44到2015年第33,势头非常猛

@whigzhou: 以色列建国后政治风向转变和制度变迁,是观察外部威胁如何影响制度的极好案例,建国者是一群社会主义者,甚至不乏贡产主义者,而且还真建成了一些贡产主义制度,在几十年险境求存的经历之后,现在,他们头脑已清醒到能够接受像内塔尼亚胡这样的政治家了

@飘絮的李二锅:(more...)

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【2015-07-15】 @whigzhou: 传统基金会的最新经济自由度排名 http://t.cn/hbuqBi @whigzhou: 近年最吸引我注意的变化是以色列,其排名从2013年第51到2014年第44到2015年第33,势头非常猛 @whigzhou: 以色列建国后政治风向转变和制度变迁,是观察外部威胁如何影响制度的极好案例,建国者是一群社会主义者,甚至不乏贡产主义者,而且还真建成了一些贡产主义制度,在几十年险境求存的经历之后,现在,他们头脑已清醒到能够接受像内塔尼亚胡这样的政治家了 @飘絮的李二锅:以色列从没有抛弃过民主制度,并且迅速坚定地倒向了美国,结合环境的变化,这约束了策略演变的路径。如果从一开始建立的就不是民主制度或者倒向的是苏联,糟糕的环境可能进一步导向集权、控制和非民主。 @whigzhou: 傍美定律,多亏阿联走了社会主义道路并投靠苏联~ @whigzhou: 皿煮因素确实也很关键,在生死抉择关头,大众比精英更不容易挑错边,他们的集体选择就更不容易错,历史经验已多次证明这一点 @whigzhou: 我印象中唯一一次民众不知该往哪边跑的例子是德苏瓜分波兰时,大家都晕菜了,两边都往对面跑 @慕容飞宇gg: 我总觉得这个统计有点怪。貌似发达国家其实管制条例比天朝这种地方多吧(比如德国有出租车送往客必须回站才能再接客这种奇葩规定)? @whigzhou: 不能这么算,被一条禁令完全封闭,和大致开放同时用很多条例加以管制相比,显然更不自由,潮藓几乎没有西方式管制条例,评估自由度得从结果端入手 @whigzhou: 假如我来设计经济自由度指数的话,会从几个方面着手:1)合规成本,2)激励方向:看企业的核心资源朝哪个方向配置,朝裙带/钻营/贿赂/游说方向配置越多,显然越不自由,3)选择效应:看最成功的那些个人和企业普遍具有哪些特征和优势,4)边际变化:看对自由度最敏感的产业在流进还是流出。 @Stimmung:专治各种不服国家没有国会议员可游说,贿赂裙带没法统计,民主国家企业工会甩着膀子往super PAC捐钱,最后统计结果可能就是前者自由度比后者高很多。 @whigzhou: 嗯确实,可能得用其他指标先分出个大概,然后才能用第三组指标作组内比较,从各组指标到最终指数的算法可能得是多级的
洛克

【2015-07-02】

@森破山伯爵人鱼FC了但还是非洲人:辉格老师对洛克贬抑的理由我有点感兴趣。

@whigzhou: 洛克的许多现实政治主张我都是赞成的,但他为这些主张所提供的哲学基础非常糟糕,特别是他有关财产权和政府的哲学基础,这些缺陷经后继者(比如马克思和罗斯巴德)发挥放大之后其错谬越来越明显,将许多人导入歧途

@whigzhou: 洛克的权利观大致是自耕小农的朴素自由主义,其纯粹形式是鲁滨逊式自由,认为权利在自然状态下就有了,而不是在人际冲突和政治过程中逐渐清晰起来的边界,与(more...)

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【2015-07-02】 @森破山伯爵人鱼FC了但还是非洲人:辉格老师对洛克贬抑的理由我有点感兴趣。 @whigzhou: 洛克的许多现实政治主张我都是赞成的,但他为这些主张所提供的哲学基础非常糟糕,特别是他有关财产权和政府的哲学基础,这些缺陷经后继者(比如马克思和罗斯巴德)发挥放大之后其错谬越来越明显,将许多人导入歧途 @whigzhou: 洛克的权利观大致是自耕小农的朴素自由主义,其纯粹形式是鲁滨逊式自由,认为权利在自然状态下就有了,而不是在人际冲突和政治过程中逐渐清晰起来的边界,与之相应,他的政治哲学也只是朴素的反暴君观念,天真的相信自然状态是美好的,而恶政是自然状态被破坏的结果。 @夫子大师兄: 主要是对人性基础的阐述,问题大大的。 @whigzhou: 有点像性善论。我鉴别一种政治观念是否靠谱的最简易指标,是看他是否随时记得:世界是危险的,人类是极度危险的动物,任何均衡、秩序、权利、自由都是需要小心翼翼加以呵护与捍卫的,容不得一点天真 @Cambrian__:如果基于“世界是危险的,人类是极度危险的动物”,你如何看待技术的分数进步呢?毕竟技术的外生冲击经常是对均衡、秩序有无法预料的冲击。但我肯定你会欣喜于各种技术进步 @whigzhou: 对,技术对制度的冲击可能很大,特别是有关武器交通通信的技术,所以自由共同体需要随时警惕 @whigzhou: 比如在伊朗政权获得核武器这种大事情上,就得毫不犹豫行动,不需要其他理由,它本身便构成了压倒性理由  
[微言]从国别比较看制度与繁荣

【2015-06-03】

@whigzhou: 以国别比较考察制度与繁荣之间关系时,在面对小国特别是资源条件特殊的小国时,可能会出现一些奇特的情况,比如自由导致萧条和衰败,我虚构了一个极端案例,可以演示这种情况如何可能发生。设想一个像复活节岛那么偏僻的地方,被皇家海军用来囚禁战俘,并按普通监狱标准管理他们……

@whigzhou: 这些战俘当然享受不到什么自由,然后某天,皇家海军宣布撤离该岛并解放所有战俘,同时留下一套效能不亚于大英本土的司法系统(more...)

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【2015-06-03】 @whigzhou: 以国别比较考察制度与繁荣之间关系时,在面对小国特别是资源条件特殊的小国时,可能会出现一些奇特的情况,比如自由导致萧条和衰败,我虚构了一个极端案例,可以演示这种情况如何可能发生。设想一个像复活节岛那么偏僻的地方,被皇家海军用来囚禁战俘,并按普通监狱标准管理他们…… @whigzhou: 这些战俘当然享受不到什么自由,然后某天,皇家海军宣布撤离该岛并解放所有战俘,同时留下一套效能不亚于大英本土的司法系统来确保他们的自由,于是前战俘们享有了自由。起初若干年,社会繁荣了起来,可是当繁荣水平达到一些人能买得起一张远洋船票时,他们就离开了,直到所有人都离开,GDP降为0 @whigzhou: 在此过程中,从出现第一个买得起船票的人开始,该岛国的经济水平在统计上很可能表现为绝对下降,无论是总量还是人均,而且所有用来衡量一个社会繁荣程度的指标,很可能全都是下降的 @whigzhou: 从这个案例可以衍生出各种有趣的版本,比如某国唯一值钱的资源是一座金矿,挖矿的是外国公司派来的机器人,本地人靠吃租过日子,原本有1000人,一场内战过后100人幸存下来,于是人均GDP大涨