含有〈政治〉标签的文章(222)

[译文]隐藏在好莱坞的反动派

Breitbart PolitiCon Panel: Shapiro, Milo, Davi, Marlow Wage ‘Hollywood Wars’
布莱巴特PolitiCon小组座谈:“好莱坞战争”

作者: Daniel Nussbaum @ 2015-10-13
译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值)
来源:Breitbart,http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2015/10/13/breitbart-politicon-panel-shapiro-milo-davi-marlow-wage-hollywood-wars/

LOS ANGELES — If politics is truly located “downstream” from culture — as the late Andrew Breitbart was fond of saying— then three editors from Breitbart News and one Hollywood screen legend spent the afternoon on Friday knee-deep in the water, wading upstream through the muck.

洛杉矶报道——如果政治确实位于文化的“下游”——如已故的安德鲁·布莱巴特喜欢说的那样——那么来自“布莱巴特新闻网”的三位编辑和来自好莱坞的一位荧幕传奇人物本周五下午就是在没膝深的水中趟着淤泥逆流跋涉。

Three firebrand culture warriors–Breitbart Senior Editor-at-Large Ben Shapiro, editor Milo Yiannopolous, and actor/singer/director/Big Hollywood contributor Robert Davi–took the stage Friday a(more...)

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Breitbart PolitiCon Panel: Shapiro, Milo, Davi, Marlow Wage ‘Hollywood Wars’ 布莱巴特PolitiCon小组座谈:“好莱坞战争” 作者: Daniel Nussbaum @ 2015-10-13 译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 校对:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值) 来源:Breitbart,http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2015/10/13/breitbart-politicon-panel-shapiro-milo-davi-marlow-wage-hollywood-wars/ LOS ANGELES — If politics is truly located “downstream” from culture — as the late Andrew Breitbart was fond of saying— then three editors from Breitbart News and one Hollywood screen legend spent the afternoon on Friday knee-deep in the water, wading upstream through the muck. 洛杉矶报道——如果政治确实位于文化的“下游”——如已故的安德鲁·布莱巴特喜欢说的那样——那么来自“布莱巴特新闻网”的三位编辑和来自好莱坞的一位荧幕传奇人物本周五下午就是在没膝深的水中趟着淤泥逆流跋涉。 Three firebrand culture warriors–Breitbart Senior Editor-at-Large Ben Shapiro, editor Milo Yiannopolous, and actor/singer/director/Big Hollywood contributor Robert Davi–took the stage Friday at PolitiCon for a panel titled “The Hollywood Wars.” Led by moderator and Breitbart Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow, the panel deconstructed Hollywood’s impact on politics and offered their own predictions for what that influence might look like in the future. 三位热情充沛的文化战士——“布莱巴特”高级特约编辑Ben Shapiro,编辑Milo Yiannopolous和演员/歌手/导演/“大好莱坞”栏目撰稿人Robert Davi,周五登上PolitiCon,举行了一场名为“好莱坞战争”的小组座谈。主持人由“布莱巴特”总编辑Alex Marlow担任。这次座谈解构了好莱坞对政治的影响,并就这一影响未来走向如何给出了各自的预测。 The discussion began with the idea that conservative actors, writers, producers, and executives are routinely blackballed by a hostile liberal Hollywood system–an idea that Davi, as a conservative actor with more than 130 credits under his belt, was uniquely qualified to weigh in on. 座谈首先讨论的是这样一个观点:保守派演员、编剧、制片人和监制经常遭到满怀敌意的好莱坞自由派体制的排挤。作为一个拥有130多部作品的保守派演员,Davi特别有资格就此观点发表意见。 “I would think so,” Davi confirmed, before explaining: “You’re just not invited to the party. You’re not going to the card games, or the fundraisers… All business is social, especially entertainment. ‘We’re doing this film, do you wanna be in it?’ But then if you’re not in their group, you’re not going to get it.” “我认为确实如此,”在加以解释之前,Davi确认了这个观点:“他们不会邀请你去参加派对。你没法去打牌,也没法参加筹款会……一切行业都是社会性的,娱乐业尤其如此。‘我们要搞个电影,你想演吗?’但如果你不是他们那个圈子里的,你就没得机会。” “Also, Hollywood is a bunch of thieves,” he added. “They’re just like politicians, they’re corrupt. You go in and say, ‘I have an idea.’ Two years later, you’ll see it on some cable network, your exact idea that’s been cannibalized in some way.” “另外,好莱坞就是一群小偷,”他补充说。“他们就跟政客一样,一群腐败分子。你要是跟他们说‘我有个想法’。两年以后,你就能在某个有线电视上看到它了,那就是你的想法,被他们想个办法给改编利用了。” Marlow asked Shapiro if the cultural landscape had changed significantly since the release of his 2012 book Primetime Propaganda: The True Hollywood Story of How the Left Took Over Your TV, which examines how liberal gatekeepers use television to shape culture in America. Shapiro在2012年出了一本书,《黄金时段的宣传:关于左派如何占领你的电视的好莱坞真实故事》,讨论了自由派看门人如何利用电视来塑造美国文化。Marlow问到,自该书出版以来,文化地景是否有了很大的改变? “Obviously, there’s a tremendous amount of bias in Hollywood,” Shapiro said. “It’s quite open, actually. You just have to be a leftist in order to see it, because people who discriminate don’t typically tell people they’re discriminating against that they’re victims of discrimination.” “显然,好莱坞存在巨大的偏见,”Shapiro说。“实际上,这是相当公开的。只是你需要是个左派才能看到这一点,因为歧视者通常并不会告诉被歧视者说他们是歧视受害者。” Shapiro added that in Hollywood, “it’s not a question of leftist versus conservative, it’s a question of human versus non-human.” Shapiro补充说,在好莱坞,“问题就不是左派vs. 保守派,而是人类 vs. 非人。”
You either agree with the people in Hollywood, which makes you human, or you disagree with the people in Hollywood which means you’re somewhat less than human. And the typical kind of litmus test right now is gay marriage. If you’re pro-gay marriage, then you’re a wonderful and decent human being. If you’re anti-gay marriage, then you’re a Nazi. And you will not work. “要么你同意好莱坞的人,那样的话你就是人;要么你不同意好莱坞的人,那样的话你就比人低一等。目前典型的试金石就是同性婚姻。如果你支持同性婚姻,那你就是个善良体面的好人。如果你反对同性婚姻,那你就是个纳粹分子。并且你没法工作。 There are certain positions you can hold as a conservative, abortion is getting closer to acceptable in Hollywood if you’re pro-life, but if you’re someone who believes that traditional marriage is superior to homosexual marriage, then that is obviously springing from your inherent bigotry, and you must be cast out like a leper. “作为一个保守派,有些立场你可以持有,比如如果你反对堕胎,那么好莱坞只是个对堕胎变得更宽容的地方,但如果你相信传统婚姻比同性婚姻要优越,那这显然源自你内在的顽固偏执,必须要像对待麻风病人一样把你驱逐。”
By now, the rather large room hosting the panel on the second floor of the Los Angeles Convention Center had begun to fill up. 这时候,举办座谈的这间位于洛杉矶会议中心二层的颇为宽敞的会议室已经开始坐满。 The conversation swung to Lena Dunham and the notion that Hollywood insists on forcing Americans to care about hyper-liberal, “hip” actresses even when nobody watches their shows. Yiannopoulos said that millennials, the very target demographic that Dunham’s show Girls looks to capture, especially don’t care about her show, or about any TV, for that matter. 讨论转到了Lena Dunham身上,大家论及这样一个想法:好莱坞坚持强迫美国人去在乎那些狂热自由派的“嬉皮”女演员,即使压根没人看她们的表演。Yiannopoulos说,“千禧一代”,也正就是Dunham的电视剧《衰姐们》想要吸引的目标人口群体,恰好特别不关心她的剧,当然其实他们是不关心任何电视。 “[Millennials] are not in the slightest bit interested in tuning into her show,” Yiannopoulos said.“They’re not interested in anything, not Empire, not Breaking Bad. Hollywood doesn’t have the same purchase over them.” “千禧一代压根对她的电视剧没有一丝一毫兴趣,”Yiannopoulos说。“他们对一切都不感兴趣,管他《嘻哈帝国》也好,《绝命毒师》也好。好莱坞对他们无能为力。” Instead, he argues, they’re increasingly playing video games and creating content themselves, most of it on the Internet. But even video games have come under fire from leftist social justice elements, something Yiannopoulos has spent much of the past year documenting. And even though the video game industry is now bigger than Hollywood, Yiannopoulos lamented that, as with Hollywood, the political right is “letting it go” on video games. 他认为,取而代之的是,他们现在越来越多玩电子游戏、自己制作内容,而且大都在网上完成。不过,即使是电子游戏也已经处于左派社会正义分子的炮火之下,Yiannopoulos去年有很长一段时间就在记录这个现象。尽管电子游戏产业现在比好莱坞还大,Yianopoulos却哀叹,跟好莱坞一样,政治右派在电子游戏上也在“放手”。 “The left is engaged in this process of attacking gamers and readers for imagined sins like racism, sexism, and transphobia on the basis that playing a game online can make you a worse person in real life,” he said. “[The right] is not fighting on video games.” “左派正在以想象的罪名攻击游戏玩家和读者,诸如种族主义、性别歧视和变性恐惧,理由是玩在线游戏能让你在现实生活中变坏,”他说。“右派并没有在电子游戏问题上进行反击。” The discussion then focused on the tools of narrative, which the panel agreed have a conservative bias. 随后,讨论聚焦于叙事工具,小组成员一致认为,现在的叙事工具对保守派存在偏见。 “The left has taken all these right-wing tropes that they reject, and then they turn around and use them in their films,” said Shapiro. “The left uses the right’s tools and the right uses the left’s tools, and the right loses with the right message and the wrong tools, and the left wins with the wrong message and the right tools.” “左派已经把所有他们反对的右派使用的修辞手法占为己有,然后一转身将之用到了自己的电影中,”Shapiro说。“左派用了右派的工具,右派则用左派的工具。右派用正确的信息加上错误的工具而失败了,左派则用错误的信息加上正确的工具而成功了。” “I look at it through a whole different prism,” added Davi. “In the past you had films like Death Wish and Dirty Harry. There’s something I have to go back to, when Cecil B. DeMille made the Ten Commandments. That was a big cultural moment; Judeo-Christian values at its apex… When that Noah film came out, there was a secularization in that experience.” “我是透过一个完全不同的棱镜来看待这一点的,”Davi补充说。“过去,我们有像《猛龙怪客》和《警探哈里》这样的电影。有种东西我必须回头去找,回到Cecil B. Demille制作《十诫》的时候。那可是个重大的文化节点;犹太—基督教价值观达到了顶峰……当《诺亚》那部电影出来的时候,影视界经历了一次世俗化。” Still, Yiannopoulos sounded an optimistic note when he suggested that “culture is moving in a good direction,” mostly due to the rise of video games. He argued that, unlike Hollywood, video games promote conservative and libertarian values that are “baked into” the experience. 不过,Yiannopoulos还是发出了一个乐观的音符,他认为,主要由于电子游戏的兴起,“文化正在向一个好的方向前进”。他认为,电子游戏与好莱坞不同,保守派和自由意志主义的价值观“植入了”在玩游戏的体验中并得以推广。 “There’s very little you can do to break that, however much messaging, however many paraplegic Armenian lesbians you put on Level 17,” he added. “There is a limit to how many leftist tropes and messages you can shoehorn in to a game about killing prostitutes, or shooting space aliens.” “不管在游戏中出现多少信息,不管在游戏关卡里放多少半身瘫痪的美国女同,都很难取得左派想要的效果”他补充说。“对于一个内容是杀害妓女或者射杀太空外星人的游戏,能往里头塞的左派修辞和信息毕竟有限。” Because politics are truly downstream from culture, the conversation was destined to end up on Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump. 由于政治确实位于文化的下游,讨论就注定要以共和党总统竞选领跑者Donald Trump作为最后一个话题。 Davi praised Trump’s “authenticity” and said he’d recently been in New York City, where he’d heard both a Pakistani taxi driver with six kids and women in their 20s and 30s say they were for Trump. Davi赞扬了Trump的“真实”,并说他最近刚到过纽约市,他在那听到一个有6个孩子的巴基斯坦的士司机和一群20或30多岁的女士,都声称自己支持Trump。 “If I was looking at all these politicians like I was an acting coach, and they’ve all said the same thing; one speaks like a Harvard law degree that’s been well-prepped… and I’ve heard them say the right things, and do nothing! They get in office, and do absolutely not a thing.” “如果我把自己当成一个表演教练来看这些政客,那么他们所有人说的都是一样的;都是那种准备良好的哈佛法律学位获得者的说话方式……我听他们说过各种正确的话,却没做任何事!他们上台了,然后绝对不做任何事。” “Trump captures the imagination of the public,” Davi added. “There’s a likability factor that’s unconscionable.” “Trump抓住了大众的想象力,”Davi补充说。“他有种不合情理的可爱因素。” “His name recognition makes a massive difference, because when you know someone, you’re willing to cut them some slack,” added Shapiro. “Everybody feels like they know Trump. He’ll never sink below 15 percent in the polls, kind of like Hillary.” “他的知名度影响很大,因为如果你认识某人,你就会愿意对他加以优待,”Shapiro补充说。“人人都觉得自己认识Trump。他的民调绝对不会掉到15%以下,这有点像Hillary。” Yiannopoulos said millennials particularly connect with Trump because his campaign has tapped into the generation’s defining characteristics of mischief, joy, and a ridicule of the establishment. Yiannopoulos说千禧一代跟Trump特别有共鸣,因为他的竞选已经契合了这一代人的本质特征,即胡闹、欢乐和对体制的嘲弄。 “He’s almost a comment section come to life, and I mean that as a compliment,” Yiannopoulos said. “What I mean is he’s feisty, he’s irreverent, he’s rude: I think the guy’s brilliant. He speaks the way we all speak, if only we could get away with it. Look at the [political] figures who are rising and who are more popular than ever: they reject the language policing of the left.” “他几乎就是个活的留言板,我说这个是表示赞扬,”Yiannopoulos说。“我的意思是,他很活跃,很不敬,很粗鲁;我觉得这人太赞了。他说话就跟我们没顾忌地说话一样,但我们会有种种顾忌。看看那些正在上升的和比以往任何时候都更受欢迎的(政治)人物:他们拒绝左派的语言监督。” Milo added that the left’s preferred tactic for ending debate, by branding their opponents “racist” or “transphobic,” is becoming increasingly ineffective as the cultural climate slowly changes: “When they come at you and call you a misogynist, or a racist, or a transphobe, nothing bad happens if you just laugh at them. In fact, people will like you even more. And I think Trump is tapping in to that natural sense of defiance and mischief and irreverence that people now feel.” Milo补充说,随着文化气候的缓慢变迁,左派最爱用的一个用于结束辩论的伎俩——给他们的对手贴上“种族主义者”或“变性恐惧”的标签——现在正日益丧失效果。“当他们走过来把你称作厌女者,或种族主义者,或变性恐惧,如果你只是笑话他们一下,就不会有什么后果。事实上,人们会更加喜欢你。我认为Trump正在迎合人们现在感受到的那种蔑上、胡闹和不敬的自然意识。” (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]学术界的左倾已到了何种程度?

New Study Indicates Existence of Eight Conservative Social Psychologists
最近研究显示:保守派社会心理学家现存8位

作者:Jonathan Haidt @ 2016-1-7
译者:Marcel ZHANG(@马赫塞勒张)
校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:Heterodox Academy,http://heterodoxacademy.org/2016/01/07/new-study-finds-conservative-social-psychologists/

Just how much viewpoint diversity do we have in social psychology? In 2011 nobody knew, so I asked 30 of my friends in the field to name a conservative. They came up with several names, but only one suspect admitted, under gentle interrogation, to being right of center.

社会心理学领域到底有多大的观点多样性?2011年时还没人知道,所以我询问了30个该领域的朋友,让他们举出一位保守派。结果他们提到了好几个名字,但在温和的盘问之下,只有一位嫌疑人承认了自己的政治倾向是中间偏右的。

A few months later I gave a talk at the annual convention of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology in which I pointed out the field’s political imbalance and why this was a threat to the quality of our research.

几个月后,我在人格与社会心理学协会(SPSP)年会上发言时,指出了该领域的政治失衡现象,以及为什么这种现象会对我们的研究质量造成威胁。

I asked the thousand-or-so people in the audience to declare their politics with a show of hands, and I estimated that roughly 80% self-identified as “liberal or left of center,” 2% (I counted exactly 20 hands) identified as “centrist or moderate,” 1% (12 hands) identified as libertarian, and, rounding to the nearest integer, zero percent (3 hands) identified as “conservative or right of center.” That gives us a left: right ratio of 266 to one. I didn’t think the real ratio was that high; I knew that some conservatives in the audience were probably afraid to raise their hands.

我要求在场的约一千名听众举手表明自己的政治倾向,估计大略有80%的人认为自己是“自由派或者中间偏左派”,有2%(我数下来不多不少20个人)认为自己是“中立派或者温和派”,只有1%(12个人)自认自由意志主义者,如果直接取整的话,几乎0%(3个人)自认“保守派或者中间偏右派”。我们看到的是一个266:1的左右派比值。我不认为真实的比值会如此之高,我知道当时听众席里有些保守派可能会怯于举手。

Some of my colleagues questioned the validity of such a simple and public method, but Yoel Inbar and Yoris Lammers conducted a more thorough and anonymous survey of the SPSP email list later that year, and they too found a very lopsided political ratio: 85% of the 291 respondents self-identified as liberal overall, and only 6% identified as conservative.

有些同事对我这种简易公开方式的有效性提出了质疑。但是,同年晚些时候,Yoel Inbar 和 Yoris Lammers在该协会邮件组中进行了一场更加彻底的匿名调查,结果他们也发现了一边倒的政见比值:总共291个调查对象中,有85%认为自己基本可以算作自由派,而只有6%的调查对象认为自己是保守派。

That gives us our first good estimate of the left-right ratio in social psychology: fourteen to one. It’s a much more valid method than my “show of hands” (which was(more...)

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New Study Indicates Existence of Eight Conservative Social Psychologists 最近研究显示:保守派社会心理学家现存8位 作者:Jonathan Haidt @ 2016-1-7 译者:Marcel ZHANG(@马赫塞勒张) 校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:Heterodox Academy,http://heterodoxacademy.org/2016/01/07/new-study-finds-conservative-social-psychologists/ Just how much viewpoint diversity do we have in social psychology? In 2011 nobody knew, so I asked 30 of my friends in the field to name a conservative. They came up with several names, but only one suspect admitted, under gentle interrogation, to being right of center. 社会心理学领域到底有多大的观点多样性?2011年时还没人知道,所以我询问了30个该领域的朋友,让他们举出一位保守派。结果他们提到了好几个名字,但在温和的盘问之下,只有一位嫌疑人承认了自己的政治倾向是中间偏右的。 A few months later I gave a talk at the annual convention of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology in which I pointed out the field’s political imbalance and why this was a threat to the quality of our research. 几个月后,我在人格与社会心理学协会(SPSP)年会上发言时,指出了该领域的政治失衡现象,以及为什么这种现象会对我们的研究质量造成威胁。 I asked the thousand-or-so people in the audience to declare their politics with a show of hands, and I estimated that roughly 80% self-identified as “liberal or left of center,” 2% (I counted exactly 20 hands) identified as “centrist or moderate,” 1% (12 hands) identified as libertarian, and, rounding to the nearest integer, zero percent (3 hands) identified as “conservative or right of center.” That gives us a left: right ratio of 266 to one. I didn’t think the real ratio was that high; I knew that some conservatives in the audience were probably afraid to raise their hands. 我要求在场的约一千名听众举手表明自己的政治倾向,估计大略有80%的人认为自己是“自由派或者中间偏左派”,有2%(我数下来不多不少20个人)认为自己是“中立派或者温和派”,只有1%(12个人)自认自由意志主义者,如果直接取整的话,几乎0%(3个人)自认“保守派或者中间偏右派”。我们看到的是一个266:1的左右派比值。我不认为真实的比值会如此之高,我知道当时听众席里有些保守派可能会怯于举手。 Some of my colleagues questioned the validity of such a simple and public method, but Yoel Inbar and Yoris Lammers conducted a more thorough and anonymous survey of the SPSP email list later that year, and they too found a very lopsided political ratio: 85% of the 291 respondents self-identified as liberal overall, and only 6% identified as conservative. 有些同事对我这种简易公开方式的有效性提出了质疑。但是,同年晚些时候,Yoel Inbar 和 Yoris Lammers在该协会邮件组中进行了一场更加彻底的匿名调查,结果他们也发现了一边倒的政见比值:总共291个调查对象中,有85%认为自己基本可以算作自由派,而只有6%的调查对象认为自己是保守派。 That gives us our first good estimate of the left-right ratio in social psychology: fourteen to one. It’s a much more valid method than my “show of hands” (which was intended as a rhetorical device, not a real study). But still, we need more data, and we need to try more ways of asking the questions. 这就给我们提供了社会心理学界中左右派比值的第一份合理估计:14:1。这就比我之前的“举手”办法要可靠多了(当时我只是为了表明观点,并非真正的学术研究)。但是话说回来,我们还是需要更多的数据,而且需要尝试更多的调查途径。 A new data set has come in. Bill von Hippel and David Buss surveyed the membership of the Society for Experimental Social Psychology. That’s a professional society composed of the most active researchers in the field who are at least five years post-PhD. It’s very selective – you must be nominated by a current member and approved by a committee before you can join. 现在我们有了一组新数据。Bill von Hippel和David Buss调查了实验社会心理学会(SESP)的全体会员。这是个由该领域最活跃的研究者组成的专业协会,全体成员都至少已博士毕业5年。他们都是经过精挑细选的,入会必须获得会员提名且通过一个委员会的批准。 Von Hippel and Buss sent a web survey to the 900 members of SESP and got a response rate of 37% (335 responses). So this is a good sample of the mid-level and senior people (average age 51) who produce most of the research in social psychology. Von Hippel和Buss向该学会的900名会员发送了网上调查问卷,回应率为37%(共335个回应者)。所以,对于在社会心理学领域贡献了绝大部分研究的中高级人员(平均年龄51岁)而言,这是一个很不错的样本。 Von Hippel and Buss were surveying the members’ views about evolution, to try to understand the reasons why many social psychologists distrust or dislike evolutionary psychology. At the end of the survey, they happened to include a very good set of measures of political identity. Not just self-descriptions, but also whom the person voted for in the 2012 US Presidential election. And they asked nine questions about politically valenced policy questions, such as “Do you support gun control?” “Do you support gay marriage?” and “Do you support a woman’s right to get an abortion?” Von Hippel和Buss的问卷要调查的是会员们对进化问题的观点,试图了解许多社会心理学家怀疑或厌恶进化心理学的原因。在问卷最后一部分,他们碰巧设置了一组很棒的政治认同鉴别方法。不仅仅包括自我描述,而且还问到了他们在2012年美国大选中的投票对象。此外他们还提出了9个已成为政治心理价(valence)的政策问题【编注:心理价(valence)是指那些会恒常的引发正面或负面情绪的东西、事情或特征】,比如“你是否支持枪支管制”,“你是否支持同性婚姻”和“你是否支持妇女堕胎权”等等。 In a demonstration of the new openness and transparency that is spreading in social psychology, Von Hippel and Buss sent their raw data file and a summary report to all the members of SESP, to thank us for our participation in the survey. They noted that their preliminary analysis showed a massive leftward tilt in the field – only four had voted for Romney. Von Hippel和Buss体现了新近在社会心理学界蔚然成风的公开透明精神,将他们的原始数据文件和总结报告发送给了SESP的全体会员,以感谢我们在这场调查研究中的积极参与。他们指出,他们的初步分析显示出了该领域严重左倾的现象——只有四个人曾给罗姆尼投过票。 I then emailed them and asked if I could write up further analyses of the political questions and post them at Heterodox Academy. They generously said yes, and then went ahead and made all the relevant files available to the world at the Open Science Framework (you can download them all here). 而后我通过电邮联系了他们,问我能不能就这些政治问题写个深度分析并发到异端学院(Heterodox Academy)网站上。他们很大方地同意了,紧接着就把相关文件发到开放科学框架网(Open Science Framework)上并开放了下载(你们可以在这个网站下载全部资料https://osf.io/ebvtq/)。 So here are the results, on the political distribution only. (Von Hippel and Buss will publish a very interesting paper on their main findings about evolution and morality in a few months). There are three ways we can graph the data, based on three ways that participants revealed their political orientation. 下面就是仅涉及政见分布问题的成果了。(Von Hippel和Buss将会在几个月后发表一篇非常有意思的论文,主题是他们在进化和道德方面的主要发现。)依照参与者透露他们政治倾向的三种途径,我们也可以通过三种方式来将数据图表化。 1)Self-descriptions of political identity: 36 to one. 1)自我描述的政治认同:36:1。 One item asked “Where would you put yourself on a continuum from liberal to conservative?” The 11 scale points were labeled “very liberal” on the left-most point and “very conservative” on the right-most point. If we do a simple frequency plot (a graph of how many people chose each of the 11 possible responses) we get the following: 有一道题问到:“在自由派和保守派之间这个连续区间内,你会将自己定位于何处?”在这11个选项中,最左端的那个被标为“极端自由派”,最右端则为“极端保守派”。如果我们绘制一个频率分布直方图(一个体现11个选项对应人数的图表),则得下图: vonhippel.figure1-1

【图表一:政治倾向自评分】

The graph shows that 291 of the 326 people who responded to this question picked a left-of-center label (that’s 89.3%), and only 8 people (2.5%) picked a right of center label, giving us a Left to Right ratio of 36 to one. This is much higher than that found by Inbar and Lammers. The main source of political diversity appears to be the 27 people (including me) who self-identified as centrists. 图表显示,该题的326位回答者中有291位选择了中间偏左标签(占总数89.3%),而只有8位选择了中间偏右标签(占总数2.5%),这就得出了一个36:1的左右派比值。这比Inbar和Lammers发现的比值还高。政治多样性主要基于27位自我定义为中间派的回答者(包括本人在内)。 2)Presidential voting: 76 to one. 2)总统选举投票:76:1。 Another item asked: “Who did you vote for in the last presidential election (if you are not a US citizen, or if you did not vote, who would you have voted for if you had voted)? The options were: “Obama,” “Romney,” or “Other.” If we do a frequency plot of the 3 possible choices we get this: 另有一道题问到:“在上次总统大选中你把选票投给了谁(如果你不是美国公民,或者你并未投票的话,假设让你投票,你可能会投给谁)?”选项有这么几个:“奥巴马”、“罗姆尼”或“其他”。如果我们依照这三个选项绘制频率分布直方图,则得下图: vonhippel.figure2

【图表二:2012年美国总统大选】

The graph shows that 305 of the 322 people (94.7%) who responded to this question voted for Obama, 4 (1.2%) voted for Romney, and 13 (4.0%) said they voted for another candidate. This gives us a Democrat to Republican ratio of 76 to one. 图表显示,该题的322位回答者中有305位(占94.7%)投给了奥巴马,4位(占1.2%)投给了罗姆尼,而有13位(占4.0%)回答者投给了其他总统候选人。这就得出了一个76:1的“驴象比”比值。 3)Views on political issues: 314 to one. 3)政治议题上的观点:314:1。 A third way of graphing the viewpoint diversity of these senior social psychologists is by computing an average score across all 9 of the politically valenced policy items. For each one, the 11 point response scale was labeled “strongly oppose” on the left-most point and “strongly support” on the right-most point. 将这些资深社会心理学家的观点多元状况图表化的第三条途径,就是算出他们在九道政治心理价问题上的平均得分。每个问题的答案选项都有11个,最左端的为“强烈反对”,最右端为“强烈支持”。 I converted all responses to the same 11 point scale used in figure 1 so that “strongly supporting” the progressive position (e.g., pro-choice) was scored as -5 and “strongly supporting” the conservative position (e.g., prayer in school) was scored as +5. That puts the leftists on the left and the rightists on the right of the graph. Here’s the graph: 我将所有回答都转换成与图表1中的11个选项一一对应,也就是说,“强烈支持”进步派立场的(比如主张堕胎权)就会被记作-5分,而“强烈支持”保守派立场(比如支持校内祷告)就会被记作5分。这样就可以在图表上把左派标到左侧,右派标到右侧。图表如下: vonhippel.figure3

【图表三:对九个政治议题的观点】

I counted anyone whose average score fell between -1.0 and +1.0 (inclusive) as a centrist. The graph shows that 314 of the 327 participants (96.0%) had an average score below -1.0 (i.e., left of center), one had an average score above +1.0 (i.e., right of center), and 12 were centrists. That gives us a Left to Right ratio of 314 to one. 我将所有平均得分在-1.0与1.0之间的参与者都算作中间派。图表显示,在327名参与者中有314位(占96.0%)的平均得分低于-1.0(即中间偏左),只有一位参与者的平均得分高于1.0(即中间偏右),另外还有12位是中间派。这样我们就得出了一个314:1的左右派比值。 What does this mean? 这意味着什么? However you measure it, and for all samples measured so far, social psychology leans heavily to the left and has very few people right of center. Von Hippel and Buss’s new data confirms the story that a few of us told in a recent paper (Duarte, Crawford, Stern, Haidt, Jussim & Tetlock, 2015) in which we created the graph below, which shows just how fast psychology has been moving to the left since the 1990s. The ratio of Democrats to Republicans (diamonds) and liberals to conservatives (circles) was roughly 3 to 1 for most of the 20th century. But it skyrockets beginning in the 1990s as the Greatest Generation retires and the Baby Boomers take over. 不论你如何衡量,就目前已经测得的样本来看,社会心理学界已经左倾得非常严重了,只有很少人是中间偏右的。Von Hippel和Buss的新数据也证实了我们几个在最近的一篇论文(Duarte, Crawford, Stern, Haidt, Jussim和Tetlock于2015年发表)里说到的情况,文中我们绘制了下面这张图表,它显示了从1990年代起心理学界是以何等之快的速度左倾化的。“驴象比”(在图中以方块示出)和“左右比”(在图中以圆圈示出)比值在上个世纪基本为3:1。但随着“最伟大世代”【编注:作家Tom Brokaw将成长于大萧条年代,接着参加二战,随后又经历了战后大繁荣的那一代人称为最伟大一代】的退休和婴儿潮一代的接班,这个比值在90年代开始直线窜升。 diversity-graph

【图表四: 1920年代起学院心理学家左右派比值的攀升。(详见Duarte等人在2015年发表的论文)】

Why does this matter? 这为什么重要? Most people know that professors in America, and in most countries, generally vote for left-leaning parties and policies. But few people realize just how fast things have changed since the 1990s. An academic field that leans left (or right) can still function, as long as ideological claims or politically motivated research is sure to be challenged. But when a field goes from leaning left to being entirely on the left, the normal safeguards of peer review and institutionalized disconfirmation break down. Research on politically controversial topics becomes unreliable because politically favored conclusions receive less-than-normal scrutiny while politically incorrect findings must scale mountains of motivated and hostile reasoning from reviewers and editors. 美国以及大多数国家的教授们一般都会支持左翼政党或政策,这没什么新鲜,但鲜为人知的是, 1990年代以来事态是以何其快的速度转变着。只要意识形态主张或者出于政治目的的研究仍必然会遭到挑战,那么一个左倾(或右倾)的学术领域就还能运转。但是当一个学术领域从左倾发展到铁板一块的左翼时,同行评议或者体制化否证的正常保障监督措施就会崩溃。对在政治上有争议的论题的研究会变得不再可靠,因为存在政治偏袒的结论现在受到的审查少之又少,而政治不正确的发现则需要排除万难,须要遭受评议人和编辑们发出的种种带有政治动机和敌意的论证。 I consider the rapid loss of political diversity, over the last 20 years, to be the second-greatest existential threat to the field of social psychology, after the “replication crisis.” The field is responding constructively to the replication crisis. Will it also attend to its political diversity crisis? Or will it continue to think of diversity only in terms of the demographic categories that most matter to people on the left: race, gender and sexual orientation? 我将过去二十年间发生的这次政见多样性的迅速退减视为,社会心理学领域的第二大致命威胁,仅次于“可重复性危机”。这个领域正在积极地应对可重复性危机,那么它也会去解决它的政见多样性危机吗?还是说,它仍旧只会从人口统计学这个对左派人士来说至关重要的角度来考虑多样性?只会考虑种族、性别和性向问题? I don’t mean to single out social psychology. It is the field that I know best, but what we have learned at Heterodox Academy is that this problem, this rapid shift to political purity, has happened to most fields in the humanities and social sciences in just the last 2 decades. 我并不是故意要把社会心理学挑出来。这只是我最熟悉的领域,但我们在异端学院意识到了:这个问题,即政治单一化现象,仅在过去的短短20年内就在大部分人文社科领域都已经发生了。 An optimistic ending 一个乐观的结局 I would like to end by thanking my colleagues. I have been raising a fuss about these issues since 2011. In that time I also moved from the left to the center, politically. I am no longer a progressive. So you might expect that I’ve been ostracized, but I have not. Nothing bad has happened to me. 我想以我对同事们的感激来结尾。从2011年开始我就因为这些事搞得他们鸡犬不宁,那时候我也在政治倾向方面由左派转变为中间派。我不再是个进步主义者了。所以你可能以为我已经被排挤了,但是并没有,万事顺遂。 Some of my colleagues believe that the political imbalance is not a problem. But the majority response has been, roughly: “This is really interesting. We really truly value diversity, and we agree with you and your co-authors that diversity of viewpoints is the kind that confers the most benefits on groups. But gosh, how are we going to get more?” 我的有些同事觉得政见失衡没什么大不了的。但大多数回答大概是这样的:“这确实挺有意思的。我们的确很看重多样性,而且我们同意你和你的合著者的观点,观点多样性是那种可以为团体带来最大益处的东西。但是啊,我们怎么才能获取更多多样性呢?” That’s our mission at Heterodox Academy – to figure out how to get more. It will be hard, but it can and must be done. Please see our “solutions page.” 这就是我们在异端学院中的使命了,那就是搞清楚如何能获得更多的多样性。道路是曲折的,但前途是光明的。请参看我们的“方案页”。 Post script: Paul Krugman recently referred to us at Heterodox Academy as “outraged conservatives,” and he said that the leftward shift in the academy was really just the rightward shift of the Republican Party since the 1990s. He suggests that professors didn’t change their views on policy, they just stopped identifying as Republicans as the party went off the deep end. 附:Paul Krugman最近将我们这些异端学院上的人称为“愤怒的保守派”,他说1990年代以来学界的左转其实只是共和党的右转。他的言下之意是,教授们并没有改变过他们的政见,他们只是在共和党转入极端时不再自我标榜为共和派了而已。 There is surely some truth to Krugman’s argument, but that doesn’t negate our claim that the makeup of the professoriate really did change after the Greatest Generation retired. Krugman’s argument could not explain graph #3, for example, which shows just a single person with views on social issues that are right of center. Also, I should point out that most of us at Heterodox Academy are not conservatives, and if you read everything on our site, it will be hard to find evidence of “outrage.” Krugman的质疑确实反映了部分事实,但这并没有驳倒我们的主张,最伟大世代逝去之后教授阶层的组成结构确实发生了变化。比如,Krugman的质疑就没能解释图表三里只有一个人对偏右社会事件支持的现象。此外,我必须要指出,异端学院上的大多数人都不是保守派,而且如果读过我们网站上的所有文章的话,你会很难发现有“愤怒”的踪迹。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]逃离蓝州的美国人

Nearly 1,000 People Move From Blue States to Red States Every Day. Here’s Why.
每天将近有1000人从蓝州搬到红州,这自有缘由。

作者:Stephen Moore @ 2015-10-9
译者:董慧颖
校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:The Daily Signal,http://dailysignal.com/2015/10/09/nearly-1000-people-move-from-blue-states-to-red-states-every-day-heres-why/

The so-called “progressives” love to talk about how their policies will create a worker’s paradise, but then why is it that day after day, month after month, year after year, peop(more...)

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Nearly 1,000 People Move From Blue States to Red States Every Day. Here’s Why. 每天将近有1000人从蓝州搬到红州,这自有缘由。 作者:Stephen Moore @ 2015-10-9 译者:董慧颖 校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:The Daily Signal,http://dailysignal.com/2015/10/09/nearly-1000-people-move-from-blue-states-to-red-states-every-day-heres-why/ The so-called “progressives” love to talk about how their policies will create a worker’s paradise, but then why is it that day after day, month after month, year after year, people are fleeing liberal blue states for conservative red states? 那些所谓的“进步人士们”喜欢谈论他们的政策将如何创造出一个工人的天堂。可是,为什么日复一日,月复一月,年复一年,人们总是在从自由派的蓝州逃到保守派的红州去呢? The new Census data on where we live and where we moved to in 2014 shows that the top seven states with the biggest percentage increase in in-migration from other states are in order: North Dakota, Nevada, South Carolina, Colorado, Florida, Arizona, and Texas. All of these states are red, except Colorado, which is purple. 2014年最新人口普查中关于居住地和搬迁地的数据显示,按照迁入量增长的百分比计算,有他州居民迁入的前七大州依次是:北达科他,内华达,南卡罗来纳,科罗拉多,佛罗里达,亚利桑那和德克萨斯。这些州中除了科罗拉多是紫色以外,其他都是红州。 Meanwhile, the leading exodus states of the continental states in percentage terms were Alaska, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, New Mexico, New Jersey, and Kansas. All of these states are blue, except Alaska and Kansas. 同时,以百分比计算,大陆州中主要的外流州是:阿拉斯加,纽约,伊利诺伊、康涅狄格,新墨西哥,新泽西和堪萨斯。这些州中除了阿拉斯加和堪萨斯外,其他都是蓝州。 The latest Rich States, Poor States document (which I co-author), published by ALEC, the state legislative organization, finds that nearly 1,000 people each day on net are leaving blue states and entering red states. This migration is changing the economic center of gravity in America—moving it relentlessly to the South and West. 最新的《富州和穷州》报告(我是合著者),由专注各州立法的美国立法交流委员会(ALEC)出版,发现每天离开蓝州进入红州的人数净值接近1000。这一迁徙正在改变美国的经济重心,使之持续不断地向南、向西转移。 Travis Brown, the author of the indispensable book “How Money Walks,” shows that two of the leading factors behind this movement of human capital are 1) whether a state has a right to work law (half of the states do) and 2) how high the top income tax rate is in the state. Nine states have no income tax today, and they are creating twice the pace of jobs as are high-income tax states. 特拉维斯·布朗写作了一本不可或缺的书:《钱如何走路》。他指出,在人力资本的上述流动背后,有两个主要的影响因素:1)该州是否有权制定工作法(一半的州都有),2)该州最高的所得税税率有多高。如今有九个州没有所得税,而他们创造的工作机会是高所得税州的两倍。 Data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) show a similar trend. Each year the IRS issues a migration data report that examines how many tax filers (and dependents) in the year changed their residency and how much income was transported from one state to another. The numbers for the most recent year (tax filing year 2013) are gigantic and put the lie to the claim that interstate migration is too small to matter in terms of the wealth and economic opportunity in one state versus another. 国税局的数据也显示了类似的趋势。每年国税局都会发布一份移民数据报告,分析当年度有多少报税人(及其家属)改变了他们的居住地以及有多少收入从一个州转移到另一个。最新一年(2013报税年度)的数字非常之大,证明下述断言就是扯谎:州际迁移太小,不会对各州之间财富和经济机会造成影响。 In 2013, Florida gained $8.2 billion in adjusted gross income from out-of-staters. Texas gained $5.9 billion—in one year. Five of the seven states with the biggest gains in income have no income tax at all: Florida, Texas, Arizona, Washington, and Nevada. New York was again the big loser, with another 112,236 tax filers leaving and taking $5.2 billion with them. (So much for those TV ads trying to lure businesses into America’s 2nd highest taxed state with temporary tax breaks.) Illinois lost nearly 67,000 tax filers and $3.7 billion of income it can no longer tax. 2013年,佛罗里达从外州来者身上获得了共计82亿美元的调整后总收益。德克萨斯在一年内获得了59亿美元。收益增加最多的七个州中有五个没有任何所得税:佛罗里达、德克萨斯、亚利桑那、华盛顿州和内华达。纽约州又是最大的输家,又有112236名纳税人离开,一并带走了52亿美元。(那么多电视广告企图用临时税收减免来引诱企业到全美税负第二重的州去发展,还是打住吧。)伊利诺伊失去了近67000名纳税人,可征税收入中流走了中37亿美元。 I’ve never met a Democrat who could come up with even a semi-plausible explanation for why families and businesses are hightailing it out of blue states. They are leaving states with high minimum wages, pro-union work rules, high taxes on the rich, generous welfare benefits, expansive regulations to “help” workers, green energy policies, etc. People are voting with their feet against these liberal policies. 我从来没有见过任何一个民主党人能想出半个理由,能解释为什么家庭和企业都在从蓝州逃离。他们正在离开的这些州,都有很高的最低工资,有利于工会的工作规定,对富人的高税收,慷慨的福利待遇,无孔不入的旨在“帮助”工人的管制,绿色能源政策,等等。人们正在用脚投票,反对这些自由派政策。 When I debated Paul Krugman this summer, I confronted him with this reality. His lame explanation for the steady migration from liberal North to conservative South was that “air conditioning” has made the South more livable. Americans are evidently moving because of the weather. 今年夏天当我和保罗·克鲁格曼辩论时,我用这样的事实与他对质。他对从自由派北部到保守派南部间的稳定移民的蹩脚解释是,“空调”使南部更适于居住。美国人显然是由于天气原因才搬家的。 There are two glaring problems with this theory: California and North Dakota. In the last decade ending in 2013, 1.4 million more Americans left California than moved into the once-Golden State. It’s a good bet these California refugees didn’t leave for more sunshine or better weather. 这个想法面临着两个突出的困难:加利福尼亚和北达科塔。到2013年为止的十年间,从曾经的黄金州加利福尼亚迁出的人口比迁入的多出140万。可以肯定地说,这些离开加利福尼亚州的难民并不是为了追寻更多的阳光或更好的气候。 And if warm weather is what is attracting people to the South—and surely there is some truth to that—why did the coldest state outside Alaska, North Dakota, have the biggest population gain in percentage terms in the most recent year? The answer is that workers went to get jobs created by the Bakken Shale oil and gas boom. By the way, California is one of the oil- and gas-richest states in the nation, but its “green” politicians are regulating that industry out of businesses. So much for caring about working-class Americans. 如果温暖的气候是吸引人们迁往南方的原因——当然这也有一定的道理——那为什么最近一年中,除阿拉斯加以外最寒冷的州——北达科塔——却有着最大的人口增长百分比?答案是,工人们是去追寻因巴肯页岩油气繁荣而创造出来的工作。顺便提一下,加利福尼亚是全国石油和天然气最为富集的州之一,但该州的“绿色”政治家们正通过管制逼死油气行业。别再说什么关心工薪阶层美国人了。 The latest Census and IRS data merely confirm what Americans can see every day with their own two eyes. Red states are a magnet. There’s a downside to this for sure. Conservatives have a legitimate gripe that as blue-staters come into their prosperous red states, they try to turn them blue. That’s happened in New Hampshire, where Massachusetts transplants vote for the left-wing policies they just fled. 最新的人口普查和国税局的数据只是证实了美国人每天用自己的两只眼睛都能看到的事情。红州是一块磁铁。这肯定会有消极面。保守派的抱怨合情合理,蓝州人在进入繁荣的红州后,正试图将他们的红州变蓝。这种事已经在新罕布什尔发生,来自马萨诸塞的移民投票支持他们方才逃离的左翼政策。 But the underlying trend is unmistakable: Liberal blue states are economic dinosaurs. Will they change their ways before they go the way of Detroit and become extinct? 但基本的趋势是显而易见的:自由派的蓝州是经济的巨大障碍。在重蹈底特律的覆辙走向灭绝之前,他们会改变自己的方式吗? (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

宪法对抗

【2016-05-18】

1)纳税额与投票权的分离是近代政治堕落的基础动力之一,

2)没有堕落的更彻底是因为庞大中产阶级的存在,

3)福利制度在不断放大食税阶层,

4)离开其社会结构基础,三权分立并不能自我维持,最高法院的刹车皮并非永远指望得上,

5)州权避免让事情变得更坏,但效果也颇为有限,

6)未来政治对立将更多表现为州际差异,

7)所以问题之一是保守派是否能赢得足够多的州从而控制参议院,而这取决于人口分布,食税人口向大城市化聚集或许是好事,

8)总有一天众议院也会拿参院开刀,就像当初下院对上院动手一样,

9)未来保守州会更强硬的抗拒联邦权力,

10)当这种抗拒达到禁止联邦官员入境执法的程度时,分裂便开始了

11)宗教是抵抗国家权力越来越深介入私人生活的另一把保护伞,宗教自由也是近年来能够帮助个人避免政府管制/干预的少数几条还在起效的宪法原则之一,但自由派正在不遗余力地摧毁这把保护伞,

12)好消息是,这一对抗将让更多基督教派站到自由一边,或许libertarians也不得不创个教派才能在法庭赢得对抗国家干预的豁免权

13)从百年以上的长期看,保守派终将凭借生育率而取胜,问题是在此之前文明崩坏到何种程度,制度重建会有多艰难

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7148
【2016-05-18】 1)纳税额与投票权的分离是近代政治堕落的基础动力之一, 2)没有堕落的更彻底是因为庞大中产阶级的存在, 3)福利制度在不断放大食税阶层, 4)离开其社会结构基础,三权分立并不能自我维持,最高法院的刹车皮并非永远指望得上, 5)州权避免让事情变得更坏,但效果也颇为有限, 6)未来政治对立将更多表现为州际差异, 7)所以问题之一是保守派是否能赢得足够多的州从而控制参议院,而这取决于人口分布,食税人口向大城市化聚集或许是好事, 8)总有一天众议院也会拿参院开刀,就像当初下院对上院动手一样, 9)未来保守州会更强硬的抗拒联邦权力, 10)当这种抗拒达到禁止联邦官员入境执法的程度时,分裂便开始了 11)宗教是抵抗国家权力越来越深介入私人生活的另一把保护伞,宗教自由也是近年来能够帮助个人避免政府管制/干预的少数几条还在起效的宪法原则之一,但自由派正在不遗余力地摧毁这把保护伞, 12)好消息是,这一对抗将让更多基督教派站到自由一边,或许libertarians也不得不创个教派才能在法庭赢得对抗国家干预的豁免权 13)从百年以上的长期看,保守派终将凭借生育率而取胜,问题是在此之前文明崩坏到何种程度,制度重建会有多艰难 14)另一个好消息是,到目前为止文明世界还足够大,一处之崩坏会让其他几处觉醒,从人口/社会结构看,比如澳洲在被食税者彻底绑架之前觉醒的机会比较大 15)第三个好消息是,欧洲在不久之后便会经历一次大觉醒,至少其中一些国家会,最快可能会在下届选举中就会表现出来 16)福利制度是食税阶层的创造,而最低工资和智能机器将是其放大器,后两项都正在大跃进之中,未来福利负担的膨胀将非常惊人 17)随着州际差异扩大,财富创造者逃离福利州,福利州财政崩溃,福利负担大规模向联邦政府转移,联邦增税不可避免,此时州与联邦的对抗将迅速加剧,到时候假如保守派能够长期控制参院,自由派可能会推动一场分州运动,比如把加州分成两个,旧金山和洛杉矶各归一州,这样他们在参院就多出两席,无论如何,一场大型宪法对抗不可避免,分州之争也是一种可能方式 @黄章晋ster:如果洲际差异足够大,我想保守派的洲未必有足够大的动力去与联邦权力对抗,至少我目前想不出来,难道会为类似同性恋婚姻这样的事情发生冲突吗?如果不涉及到广泛的经济利益冲突,这种冲突就是在一定范围内的。 @whigzhou: 仅仅出于抗拒联邦税的理由也可以让这事情发生 @Helen干杯:第7条不是很明白。大城市多聚集福利人口多倾向所谓自由主义者, 从德州情况看,其城市增长快,流入人口多,我觉得有生之年会看到德州从红州变蓝州的。老师为什么说福利人口向城市聚集对保守派是好事? @whigzhou: 我说的是只有少数一些州才有的超级大都市,向那里聚集占的州就少了嘛 @Helen干杯:目前, 有意加无意, 主动加被动, 北美欧洲都在进行各种风格的种族和文化的融合。福利制度不是这个社会大实验的产品,但其存在至少在欧洲减少了融合过程可能引起的不适症状。如果因"觉醒"而停止, 也会对融合过程有负面影响。甚为遗憾。 @whigzhou: 福利制度不可能有助于种族/文化融合 @whigzhou: 内战后美国的种族融合一直在加速,直到六十年代平权法案和福利大扩张才嘎然而止,参见索维尔的两篇书评:《拜托,别再帮助我们了》 《自由派带给黑人的福利》,还有这篇:《为何伊朗移民成于美国却败于瑞典》 @卫东屯的Porco:纳税额和投票权挂钩不会催生新独裁吗? @whigzhou: 从1295年模范国会直到1918年,选举权一直和纳税义务关联着,选出了几个独裁者?不负责任的选民才最喜欢独裁者,墨索里尼希特勒查韦斯无一不是在暴民无产者欢呼拥戴之下上台的 @書筆雅歌:糠港不就是如此,糠港不能有普选的理论依据找到了。 @whigzhou: 举香港为例实在是太恭维我了,当前香港迫切需要普选权是因为她正在一步步落入熊猫的魔爪,直选是抵抗熊猫的最后防线,不是因为原有的选举制不好,要不然她一个半世纪的自由繁荣是怎么来的? @whigzhou: 【给大家支个招】支持普选权最有说服力的理由是军事动员能力,从19世纪后半叶到20世纪前半叶,随着选举权扩展,欧洲各国动员能力越来越强,到二战时已经能把一大半适龄男性拉上战场,所以一旦一个大国开始推行普选,其他只好跟进 @whigzhou: 这一点从德国近代史可以看得最清楚,从普鲁士到德意志帝国到魏玛共和国,普选权/福利制度/动员能力/民族主义/社会主义/军国主义/全民战争,妖魔鬼怪相伴而生,普选权和福利制度是俾斯麦改革的两大重点 @whigzhou: 但这个理由现在已经不成立了,战争越来越不是劳动密集型产业了 @蚯蚓爱钩钩:问题是现在有什么办法剥夺一部分人的选举权呢?除了咱…… @whigzhou: 嗯嗯没办法,或许未来逃到火星上建新国家时可以考虑一下,反正这事情不归我管~ @蚯蚓爱钩钩:如果是为了防止民众的狂热无知,那么只能说没有根本解决方案。不可能有一个完全避免民众犯错而又不造成灾难的方案,如果民众必然犯错,在制度上能做到的只有设法拖延等待民众清醒。 @whigzhou: 对啊,没有什么根本解决方案,也不需要  
进步分子入门教程

【2016-05-10】

@whigzhou: 纽约市政府出了名的替市民健康操心,香烟税全美最高,可乐要征税,饭馆餐桌上不许放盐瓶(不知后来实行没),就这么个慈爱政府,最近出了条规定,禁止酒吧酒保拒绝向孕妇售酒,说是喝酒对孕妇和胎儿的健康风险应该留给个人自己判断,哈哈,这耳光打得漂亮!我快爱上女权主义了~ http://t.cn/Rq3ncOi

@whigzhou: 【进步分子入门教程】当不同政治正确信条发生冲突时,请按如下原则决定哪个信条优先:

1)被指控性骚扰的男人必须有罪,但自称女人的男人进女厕(more...)

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7136
【2016-05-10】 @whigzhou: 纽约市政府出了名的替市民健康操心,香烟税全美最高,可乐要征税,饭馆餐桌上不许放盐瓶(不知后来实行没),就这么个慈爱政府,最近出了条规定,禁止酒吧酒保拒绝向孕妇售酒,说是喝酒对孕妇和胎儿的健康风险应该留给个人自己判断,哈哈,这耳光打得漂亮!我快爱上女权主义了~ http://t.cn/Rq3ncOi @whigzhou: 【进步分子入门教程】当不同政治正确信条发生冲突时,请按如下原则决定哪个信条优先: 1)被指控性骚扰的男人必须有罪,但自称女人的男人进女厕所不是性骚扰, 2)被指控性骚扰的男人必须有罪,但穆斯林不会强奸白女人, 3)打死黑人的警察不可能无辜,除非他是另一个黑人,而被打死的是个福音派基督徒。 4)少数群体在某个行业表现不佳或比例偏低一定是系统性歧视的结果,而不是禀赋差异的结果,除非这是个自由派占绝对多数的行业,比如学术界和好莱坞, 5)歧视同性恋这种事情绝不可容忍,除非发生在伊斯兰国家, 6)离开政府管制,个人无法为自己做出最有利的选择,除非这一选择只关乎性取向或性别认同,或者只涉及妇女, 6.5)当选择只关乎性取向或性别认同时,连儿童都具有健全的心智和良好的判断力,感谢上帝 7)其他任何时候不得感谢上帝
[译文]列宁的幽灵

Lenin’s Ghost: How Did Marxist Professors Create a New Wave of Political Leaders?
列宁的幽灵:马克思主义学者是如何培养出新一拨政治领袖的?

作者:Mihail Neamtu @ 2016-1-12
译者:小册子(@昵称被抢的小册子)
校对:慕白(@李凤阳他说)
来源:Law & Liberty,http://www.libertylawsite.org/2016/01/22/lenins-ghost-how-did-marxist-professors-create-a-new-wave-of-political-leaders/

Europe has by no means recovered from its crisis. The new wave of migrants from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East has worsened the economic forecast. The economies of the Eurozone, with a collective growth rate of under 1.5 percent in 2015, are almost stagnant. Gone are the days of the German economic miracle. Nowadays, nearly 4.5 million young persons under 25 are unemployed in the EU-28 — a staggering figure, to which Chancellor Merkel just added an extra million refugees. Particularly in the Mediterranean countries, youth unemployment is at very high levels: 47.9 percent in Greece, 47.7 percent in Spain and 39.8 percent in Italy.

欧洲还远未从危机中恢复过来,来自非洲、亚洲和中东的新一波移民令经济预测更加悲观。欧元区的经济发展几近停滞,其2015年整体增长率不足1.5%。德国创造经济奇迹的时期早已远去,如今欧盟28国25岁以下年轻人的失业人数接近4500万,令人瞠目结舌,而德国总理默克尔还刚刚再往上面增加了100万难民。年轻人的失业率在地中海沿岸国家尤其居高不下:希腊为47.9%,西班牙为47.7%,意大利则为39.8%。

Confronted with this bleak picture, politicians, journalists, religious leaders, and public intellectuals all search for an explanation. Why is the European dream failing so many young people? How long will the economic recovery last? Will the EU be able to cope with another massive crash of the financial international system?

面对这般凄惨景况,政治家、记者、宗教领袖以及公共知识分子都在寻找个中原因。为什么欧洲梦会让如此多的年轻人无法企及?经济复苏还能维持多久?欧盟有没有能力应对另一次国际金融系统崩溃的巨大冲击?

While experts ponder s(more...)

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Lenin’s Ghost: How Did Marxist Professors Create a New Wave of Political Leaders? 列宁的幽灵:马克思主义学者是如何培养出新一拨政治领袖的? 作者:Mihail Neamtu @ 2016-1-12 译者:小册子(@昵称被抢的小册子) 校对:慕白(@李凤阳他说) 来源:Law & Liberty,http://www.libertylawsite.org/2016/01/22/lenins-ghost-how-did-marxist-professors-create-a-new-wave-of-political-leaders/ Europe has by no means recovered from its crisis. The new wave of migrants from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East has worsened the economic forecast. The economies of the Eurozone, with a collective growth rate of under 1.5 percent in 2015, are almost stagnant. Gone are the days of the German economic miracle. Nowadays, nearly 4.5 million young persons under 25 are unemployed in the EU-28 — a staggering figure, to which Chancellor Merkel just added an extra million refugees. Particularly in the Mediterranean countries, youth unemployment is at very high levels: 47.9 percent in Greece, 47.7 percent in Spain and 39.8 percent in Italy. 欧洲还远未从危机中恢复过来,来自非洲、亚洲和中东的新一波移民令经济预测更加悲观。欧元区的经济发展几近停滞,其2015年整体增长率不足1.5%。德国创造经济奇迹的时期早已远去,如今欧盟28国25岁以下年轻人的失业人数接近4500万,令人瞠目结舌,而德国总理默克尔还刚刚再往上面增加了100万难民。年轻人的失业率在地中海沿岸国家尤其居高不下:希腊为47.9%,西班牙为47.7%,意大利则为39.8%。 Confronted with this bleak picture, politicians, journalists, religious leaders, and public intellectuals all search for an explanation. Why is the European dream failing so many young people? How long will the economic recovery last? Will the EU be able to cope with another massive crash of the financial international system? 面对这般凄惨景况,政治家、记者、宗教领袖以及公共知识分子都在寻找个中原因。为什么欧洲梦会让如此多的年轻人无法企及?经济复苏还能维持多久?欧盟有没有能力应对另一次国际金融系统崩溃的巨大冲击? While experts ponder such questions, legions of university students face the grim, day-to-day reality. Still in their thirties, they cannot leave their parents’ homes. It would be hard to find university graduates from Thessalonica or Malaga with bank savings or with enough funds to allow them to establish a family of their own. Many rely directly on social benefits, while switching from one low-paid job to another. In the public square, the notion of individual responsibility has become unfashionable. Angry crowds demonstrating in Athens, Madrid, or Bucharest call for ever new governmental solutions. 专家们在思考这些问题,而众多大学生则日复一复地面对残酷现实。他们已经三十多岁,但仍未能脱离父母独立生活。在萨洛尼卡和马拉加的大学毕业生当中,极少人有存款或其他财务来源足以让他们组建自己的家庭。他们当中很多人不停地辗转于不同的低薪工作,转工期间仅能依靠社会救济过活。“个人责任”的观念在社会上不再那么时髦了,雅典、马德里和布加勒斯特都有愤怒的群众游行示威,要求政府提供更新的解决方案。 In this atmosphere, both far Right parties and far Left political platforms have been mounting radical proposals. Populism is on the rise, in the form of nationalism, or revolutionary Marxism, or in some cases a strange mix of the two—as can be seen in the “Red-Brown-White” coalition that constitutes Vladimir Putin’s motley political base. Odd as it may seem, the two extremes can, as with the far-Left Syriza and the Independent Greeks (ANEL), a new Rightwing party, march together shoulder to shoulder. 在这种氛围下,无论极右政党还是极左政治联盟都不停地提出激进的建议。民粹主义正在升温,表现形式有民族主义,有宣扬革命的马克思主义,也有两者的奇特组合——例如普京混杂政权基础中的“红-棕-白”政治联盟【译注:在俄罗斯的政治语境中,红色代表社会主义和共产主义,棕色代表极端民族主义,白色代表君主政体】。虽然看起来很古怪,但是位处两个对立极端的势力(正如希腊的激进左翼联盟(Syriza)和新右翼政党独立希腊人(ANEL)那样)却可以并肩前行。 The present essay will examine the Left side of the ledger to see what intellectual and cultural forces account for the resurgence of Left radicalism in various European countries. My claim is that old-school Marxists in Western academia have managed to produce a new class of revolutionary politicians, who are currently challenging the foundations of the Western capitalist order. 本文将研究政治光谱中的左翼,以寻找极左激进思潮在欧洲各国重新抬头背后的思想与文化推力。我的看法是,西方学术界中老派的马克思主义者已经培养出了新一批的革命政客,而这些政客正在对西方资本主义秩序的根基提出挑战。 We have, for example, the British Labor Party’s new leader Jeremy Corbyn, an anti-NATO politician and welfare devotee. He has called for a friendlier approach to Putin’s Russia. (In accord with the above-noted trend, this puts him in line with Rightwing populists in his country, of the UKIP Party, and Marine Le Pen of the National Front in France.) 例如,英国工党的新党魁科尔宾就是一个反北约的政客,也是福利主义的狂热信徒。他还呼吁以友善的态度对待普京治下的俄罗斯(在前文所述的趋势之下,科尔宾凭着他的这一主张,与英国独立党的右翼民粹主义者,以及法国民族阵线的马琳•勒庞,成为同道中人)。 In Spain, there has emerged Podemos, a Leftwing movement that ran candidates for the general elections under the motto Libertad, igualdad, y fraternidad, and that late last year won 20.65 percent of the national vote, vaulting to the position of third largest political organization in the country.A 37-year-old political science professor named Pablo Manuel Iglesias Turrión is the leader of Podemos, which means “We Can”—an echo of Barack Obama’s “Yes, We Can.” 而西班牙则冒出了一个叫“我们可以”的左翼团体,他们派出代表以“自由、平等、博爱”的口号参加大选,并在去年年底赢得全国20.65%的选票,一跃成为全国第三大政治组织。“我们可以”的领袖,是一个名叫伊格莱西亚斯的37岁政治学教授。“我们可以”这个名字,呼应了奥巴马的竞选口号“是的,我们可以”。 Iglesias, an admirer of the Bolshevik Revolution, was a member of the Spanish Communist Party until 1999. In 2014, Comrade Iglesias was elected to the European Parliament as a member of his new party. Its growth in the last election came after it gathered in representatives of Izquierda Anticapitalista, an organization that includes some Trotskyites and Gramscians. (Sample press release from that group: “Toward a Democratic Disruption and an End to Austerity”). 伊格莱西亚斯对布尔什维克革命心怀敬佩,他自己在1999年之前也是西班牙共产党员。2014年,伊格莱西亚斯同志以其新政党【译注:即“我们可以”】成员的身份,成为欧洲议会的议员。在去年的大选中冒升之前,“我们可以”吸收了政治组织“左翼反资本主义”的代表,而该组织网罗的是一些托派和葛兰西学派的人。(该组织对外发表的范文之一:“迈向民主之崩溃与紧缩政策之终结”。) Podemos takes pride in presenting youthful faces to the Spanish electorate, and advocates of liberation theology (in the person of Teresa Forcades, “the radical Catalan nun on a mission,” as London’s Guardian newspaper called her). In the land of Don Quixote, Pope Francis’ sympathy for the Bolivarian economic model did make a lasting impression. “我们可以”让年轻人更多地参与政治,让他们成为解放神学倡导者(例如被伦敦《卫报》称之为“肩负使命的加泰罗尼亚激进修女”的特蕾莎•福加德斯),并以此为傲。在这片诞生了堂吉诃德的土地上,教宗方济各对玻利维亚经济模式的同情的确令人经久不忘。 In fact among former leaders of Podemos, one counts Juan Carlos Monedero, an advisor to the late Hugo Chávez. Incidentally, Hugo Chávez and his successor in Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, have sponsored Spain’s Leftwing parties and associations in the same explicit manner that President Putin has channeled Russian rubles toward his political puppets from Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. 实际上,“我们可以”的前领袖之一胡安•卡洛斯•莫内德罗就在委内瑞拉总统查韦斯执政后期担任其顾问。顺便说一句,查韦斯和他的继任人尼古拉斯•马杜罗都毫不掩饰地为西班牙左翼的政党和组织提供资助,与普京总统向他在乌克兰、摩尔多瓦和格鲁吉亚的傀儡政权输送卢布同出一辙。 The European Left, in short, is very much alive and kicking. From Britain, Greece, and Spain to the Die Linke party in Germany, the heirs of Marx show a remarkable efflorescence, resembling the Greek mythological Hydra endowed with multiple serpentine heads, despite its one and only reptilian body. We may ask ourselves who the future Heracles will be, slaying the beast with the humor of Winston Churchill and the manly determination of Mrs. Thatcher… 简而言之,欧洲的左翼势力仍生机勃勃。从英国、希腊、西班牙,到德国的左翼党,马克思的继承人向世人展现了他们的欣欣向荣,一如希腊神话中的九头蛇,尽管只有一副羸弱的身躯,却生出许多个蛇头。我们也许可以问问自己,谁将成为未来的赫拉克勒斯,以丘吉尔的幽默和撒切尔夫人的铁腕,手刃这头怪兽。 Why are the ghosts of Marxism haunting the political life of Europe? Mainly because neither the structural evils of communist ideology nor its perpetrators in the former Soviet bloc have  experienced a proper Nurnberg-style scrutiny. After the Second World War, the dismantling of the Nazi network in Germany created the proper context for the carrying out of the Marshall Plan. 为何马克思主义在欧洲政坛阴魂不散?这主要是因为,无论是共产主义意识形态在体制上的恶性,还是前苏维埃统治集团中的恶徒,都没有经历过一场纽伦堡审判式的彻底清算。二战之后,纳粹主义机体在德国土崩瓦解,为实行马歇尔计划提供了适当条件。 After 1989, the EU’s expansion toward former Socialist republics did not require a similar political lustration. To this day, most of the societal and economic disasters produced by the communist experiment remain largely unknown to the general public from the Western European countries, particularly those not yet born at the time of the 1989 revolutions or who were young at the time 1989年之后,欧盟向前社会主义国家扩张,却并没有要求在政治体制上进行类似的清理。时至今日,共产主义实验在社会制度和经济上所造成的重大灾难,大多仍不为西欧普通民众所知,尤其是那些在1989年还没出生——或当时还很年轻——的民众。 It was widely expected that these revolutions would put Leftist academics, or at least most of them, out of business. Their voices were certainly muted for a time, but that time has expired. Rejecting the notion of public penance, old Marxist professors have resumed their project, and carried on with their negation of historical facts. By spinning their simplistic understanding of the relationship between labor and capital, Marxist ideologues in the North-Atlantic hemisphere have hatched a new generation—one that seeks, and in many cases finds, electoral validation. 人们曾普遍预期,在经历了那些革命之后,就算不是全部,起码绝大部分的左翼学者不会再有市场。他们的确销声匿迹了一段时间,然而这段时间已经过去了。那些老派马克思主义学者又开始重操旧业,他们仍然拒绝接受公开忏悔的理念,继续否定历史事实。基于对劳动力与资本两者间关系的粗浅理解,北大西洋区的马克思主义追随者们牵强附会地虚构编造,孵化出了新一代——他们寻求通过参选得到承认,有好些已经获得成功。 Just as the young Barack Obama absorbed Frank Marshall Davis’ worldview in the 1970s, so too have European elites imbibed the vapors of the Maoist philosopher Alain Badiou in Paris, the late historian Eric Hobsbawm in London, cultural critic Slavoj Žižek in Ljubljana, or the Hungarian writer G.M. Tamás in Budapest. Such Marxist professors are responsible, indeed, for the birth of a new generation of historically ignorant opinion-makers in Europe. 和巴拉克•奥巴马年轻时吸收了1970年代弗兰克•马歇尔•戴维斯的世界观一样,欧洲精英阶层也受到了马克思主义学者影响,当中有巴黎的毛主义哲学家阿兰•巴迪欧,伦敦的当代历史学家艾瑞克•霍布斯鮑姆,卢布尔雅那的文化评论家斯拉沃热•齐泽克,以及布达佩斯的匈牙利作家贾斯伯•米克罗斯•塔马斯。欧洲出现了对历史愚昧无知的新一代意见领袖,这些马克思主义学者对此难辞其咎。 The economic crisis of late 2008 proved to be a good moment for high-brow academics and social justice street activists. They came together with the dream of rekindling the May 1968 movement against the bourgeois, middle-class establishment in France. Alienated youth flooded social media with Marxist jingles about American imperialism, the existence of banks and mortgages, the privatization of state assets, and the hierarchical structures of traditional family (depicted as sexist and homophobic). 2008年末爆发的经济危机,成了撮合高高在上的学术界和追求社会公义的街头行动家的大好时机。他们梦想着重燃法国1968年5月反资产阶级风暴之火,走到了一起。离群索居的年轻人在社交媒体大肆张贴马克思主义的宣传短曲,攻击美帝国主义,反对银行与抵押贷款、国有资产私有化以及传统家庭等级制度(认为这是性别歧视和恐同的表现)。 Day and night during—and since—the Great Recession, on television and radio programs, at public rallies, and throughout academic colloquia, utopians recycle the mantras of “equality,” “identity politics,” “prejudice,” and “discrimination.” At times, the fresh young European Marxists may speak more eloquently than the worn-out Bernie Sanders does in the Democratic Party’s primaries. However, this lyrical exaltation of Marxism brings nothing new in terms of understanding economic cycles or the way out of poverty. 自2008年经济大衰退开始,不切实际的空想家们无论在电视和电台节目、公众集会,还是学术界的研讨会上,都日以继夜地把“平等”“身份政治”“偏见”和“ 歧视”等概念像咒语一样翻来覆去地念诵。有时候,年轻的欧洲马克思主义者说起话来,比疲惫的桑德斯在民主党党内初选的演说还要滔滔不绝。然而,无论听起来多么激动人心,马克思主义仍然不能为研究经济规律和摆脱贫穷带来任何新东西。 Podemos and Syriza won their respective elections by vaguely promising the voters another future—a distant reality in which decisions about individual happiness would be made through a Rousseau-styled “collective deliberation.” How would poverty be eliminated? Through cooperatives, we are told, which would be less profit-driven than the “neoliberal enterprises” but which would benefit from a state-controlled redistribution of wealth. “我们可以”和激进左翼联盟通过含糊其辞地承诺选民“另一个”未来,赢得了西班牙和希腊的大选。而在这个遥远的未来中,有关个人幸福的问题则需要通过卢梭式的“集体研究”来决定。该怎样消灭贫穷呢?据说可以通过合作社,因为合作社不像“新自由主义企业”那样唯利是图,还可以从国家控制下的财富再分配中获益。 The call to ideological warfare from Podemos (be it in the form of political correctness, student strikes, militias on campuses, or voluntary sit-ins) flirts with the image of a cosmic deliverance from the “hegemonic powers” of capitalism. The relationship between the individual and the crowd is construed erotically. Comrade Iglesias’ speeches set the stage for a quasi-spiritual, if not mystical, interpretation of the revolutionary endeavor. “我们可以”所宣扬的意识形态斗争(无论是以讲求政治正确、学生罢课、校园民兵组织,还是自愿静坐的形式)引发了全球摆脱资本主义霸权这一遐想。个人与集体的关系被描绘得很诱人。伊格莱西亚斯同志的演讲令人容易对革命行动产生类似宗教般的,甚至神秘的理解。 The Leftist revolutionaries accuse “the agents of laissez-faire capitalism” of having created a new class of underpaid employees. They depict students, workers, and trade unionists as innocent victims of a vast conspiracy set up by the owners of multinational companies. In response to the selfish individualism of the Right, the new Marxists celebrate the collectivist frenzy of anti-bourgeois demonstrators. By singing the litany of “fairness,” they forget the importance of moral virtue, human character, and individual responsibility. They avoid addressing the psychological dimension of behavioral traits such as laziness, low-esteem, or procrastination. 左翼革命家们谴责“自由放任的资本主义代理人”制造了新的受剥削阶层,他们认为跨国公司股东之间互相勾结,而学生、工人、工会会员则是这一巨大阴谋的无辜受害者。针对右翼利己的个人主义,新马克思主义者为反资产阶级示威者的集体主义狂热唱赞歌。在喋喋不休地歌颂“公正”的时候,他们忘却了道德伦理、人类本性与个人责任的重要性,而且对诸如懒惰、缺乏自尊和拖延等行为特征的心理因素避而不谈。 Professor Claude Karnoouh (who taught Marxist sociology at a prominent university in the central Romanian region of Transylvania) argues that free markets produce social disasters by destroying neighborhoods and towns. He nowhere takes into account the creative nature of capitalist disruptions, so powerfully defended by Joseph Schumpeter and strikingly visible in the recent replacement of old postal offices by email (or in the mass-production of electronic tablets and the rapid decline of desktop computers). 在位于罗马尼亚中部特兰西瓦尼亚地区某知名大学教授马克思主义社会学的克劳德•卡努教授认为,自由市场摧毁了社区和小城镇,制造了社会灾难。但他完全没有考虑到资本主义式破坏的创造性本质,而这一点已经得到了约瑟夫•熊彼特强有力的论证,并且在近年来电子邮件取代传统邮局(或者平板电脑盛行和桌面电脑式微)的范例中得到清晰的体现。 The Marxist revolutionaries of 21st century Europe ignore the subtle contrivances of human motivation and organizational behavior, which typically make people leave behind the poor conditions of their ancestors, acquire new skills, and transcend the national barriers in search for a better life. 那些针对人类动机和组织行为的微妙设置,能够驱使人们挣脱先辈的困境,学习新的技能,超越国家壁垒,以求改善生活,而二十一世纪欧洲的马克思主义革命家忽略了这一点。 Also based on false assumptions is Podemos’ rhetoric against corruption. It underestimates the welfare state’s role in diminishing individual freedom and economic opportunity for young Spaniards and young people everywhere. In search of the heroic proletariat, Professor Iglesias is still obsessed with the class struggle and the victory of workers through larger trade unions and more frequent strikes. He ignores that every individual is paid for the skills, and for the needs, that he or she brings to the marketplace. “我们可以”针对贪污腐败的激烈言辞,也建基于错误假设之上,他们低估了福利制度对西班牙乃至世界各地的年轻人的个体自由和经济发展的抑制作用。怀着对英雄无产阶级的向往,伊格莱西亚斯教授仍然沉迷于阶级斗争,渴望工人阶级通过更大规模的工会和更频繁的示威来获得胜利。每个人的薪水都是由其在市场上展现出来的技能和对这种技能的需求决定的,但他完全无视这一点。 The leaders of Podemos and Syriza are blind to the differences between an Anglo American approach to economic competition (as a cure to favoritism) and a South American (but of course not uniquely South American) support for state monopoly. Rampant corruption stems not only from the ills of human nature (“the greed of the Wall Street party,” as Iglesias puts it). Corruption is the result of poor institutional arrangements: volatile property rights, overregulation, laws preventing the free association of individuals, rigged contracts pushed by central governments, as well as high taxes for small businesses. It is corruption that kills the natural instinct for entrepreneurship, individual freedom, personal growth, and economic development. 英语美洲鼓励经济竞争(以避免偏袒徇私),南美洲(当然也不仅限于南美洲)支持国家垄断,但“我们可以”和激进左翼联盟的领袖对两者间的差异却视而不见。猖獗的贪污腐败行为不仅仅源于人性中之恶(伊格莱西亚斯谓之为“华尔街派对中的贪婪”),也源于糟糕的制度安排:产权缺乏保障、过度监管、法律限制自由结社、中央政府非法操纵合同,以及对小企业高额征税。正是贪污腐败扼杀了与生俱来的创业精神、个体自由、个人成长与经济发展。 Speaking of poverty and wealth, the Jacobins haven’t managed to create a single socialist success story. No one in contemporary Cuba, Laos, or North Korea goes to “hunt in the morning, fish in the afternoon, rear cattle in the evening, and criticize after dinner.” Except for the privileged nomenklatura and the party apparatchiks, ordinary people from socialist countries have never experienced the coexistence of these leisurely activities. 说到贫穷与财富,雅各宾派并没能创造出社会主义的成功案例,一个都没有。在当代的古巴、老挝或者朝鲜,都没有人能够“上午打猎,下午捕鱼,晚上喂牛,晚饭后搞批判”【编注:语出马克思《德意志意识形态》(1845)第9页】。除了拥有特权的某些阶层和党员,社会主义国家的平民百姓从未过上这种悠闲生活。 Why should we believe that Syriza or Podemos will unchain millions of unemployed people through the shameless rescue of Lenin? In recent times, countries run by radical socialist governments have made no significant contribution to the flourishing of scientific research or to the groundbreaking technological innovations which have spread across the world. 我们为什么要相信,“我们可以”和激进左翼联盟搬出列宁的那一套,就能解救数以百万计的失业人口呢?在近代社会,科学研究百花齐放,科技创新突破惠及全球,但激进社会主义政权领导的国家从未对此做出过任何重大贡献。 Neither Communist China nor authoritarian Russia can boast impressive advances in the field of medical science. Such achievements still crown the healthcare systems of the free world. From its very first political application in real time and real history, Marxist ideology has been a painful failure of astonishing proportions. 无论是共产主义中国,还是威权主义俄国,都没能在医学研究领域取得引以为豪的突破进展。那些令人瞩目的成就,仍然出自自由国度的医疗系统。从其历史上第一次付诸政治实践开始,马克思主义意识形态带来的从来都是极其惨痛的失败。 What about the scientific claims made by Karl Marx (1818–1883)? As Dr. Paul Aligică from George Mason University once put it, Marxist economists currently employ epistemic tools that resemble the phlogiston theory used by the 17th century physicists. Das Kapital can explain the wealth and the poverty of nations with the same measure of clarity that Johann Joachim Becher’s (1635–1682) alchemist views of combustion help us understand a Ferrari engine. 那么马克思在科学方面的论断又是否有过什么贡献呢?正如乔治梅森大学的保罗•阿里吉卡博士曾经说的那样,马克思主义经济学家如今使用的认知工具,类似于17世纪物理学家使用的燃素理论。用《资本论》来解释国家的财富和贫穷,和以约翰•约钦姆•贝歇尔(1635-1682年)炼金术的燃烧理论来研究法拉利引擎,效度不相伯仲。 A century and half since the Communist Manifesto was published, the entire scientific scaffolding of Marxism has fallen to pieces. Marx got it all wrong when he spoke about the future developments of the Western society. As a reductionist theory, Marxism today cannot account for the economic transformation of the West. 自《共产党宣言》发表一个半世纪以来,马克思主义的整个科学理论框架已经分崩离析,支离破碎。马克思对西方社会的未来展望,无一应验。作为一种还原主义理论,如今马克思主义完全无法解释西方国家的经济转型。 Let us compare the income and lifestyle of a 19th century worker from a steel factory in Manchester, England with the monthly salary and the spare time enjoyed by a Google employee at the dawn of the third millennium. Would a ship worker from Gdansk in the early 1980s have dreamt of possessing a satellite home television or a mobile phone in his pocket? What is, then, left of all Marxist “prophecies”? 我们不妨将19世纪英国曼彻斯特钢铁厂工人的月薪和生活方式,和21世纪初谷歌员工的月薪与闲暇时间进行对比。1980年代初格但斯克的船坞工人能想象家里装上卫星电视,兜里揣着手机吗?那马克思主义的“预言”还剩下些什么? Since Marxist doctrine has no scientific grounding, it would seem to follow that its popularity ought to be examined from the perspective of rhetoric, theology, or literary studies. Decades ago, Robert C. Tucker convincingly argued that myth is a central category in the writings of the young Marx. 马克思主义学说没有科学基础,因此要分析它为何盛行,似乎应该从修辞艺术、宗教信仰和文学研究角度入手。数十年前,罗伯特•塔克就已经很有力地论述过,神话是马克思年轻时写作的中心主题。 From time immemorial, people cherished the eschatological promise of a savior (rebranded by Marx as “the proletariat” and by Stalin under the name of “the Party leader”). Since Marxism is neither a serious economic theory nor a rigorous social science, we would understand it better as the secular religion of modernity, which uses a redemptive language for the alienated masses. 自古以来,人们就对承诺拯救万民于水火的救世主心怀向往(马克思将其包装为“无产阶级”,而斯大林则称其为“党的领袖”)。鉴于马克思主义既不是严肃的经济理论,也不是严谨的社会科学,因此要更好地理解这一理论,我们应该将其视作追求现代性的世俗宗教,它运用救赎的语言来面对异化了的普罗大众。 Alain Besançon identified the presence of Gnostic themes in the Marxist narrative of class warfare, while the University of Chicago’s Mircea Eliade has shown the extent to which the historicist myth of a classless society projects the image of a Golden Age into modern times. 阿兰•贝桑松指出,马克思主义对于阶级斗争的叙述中包含了诺斯替派的主张,而芝加哥大学的米尔恰•伊利亚德则指出,消除社会阶级乃历史必然这一迷思,其实很大程度上只是一厢情愿地将希腊的黄金时代投射到现代社会之中。 Traditional societies had foundational stories about charismatic, heroic individuals who fought against an evil enemy and promised a radical, not an incremental, improvement of the human condition. Marxists revolutionaries have taken up this apocalyptic imagery. The new small “c” catholic church is the international socialist movement, which brings to the afflicted world a message of a redeemed humanity. 传统社会总流传着一些英雄故事,这些英雄魅力非凡,勇于对抗恶势力,他们许诺的不是渐进的改良,而是一夜之间改善人们的生活现状。马克思主义革命家宣扬的就是这种末日天启般的景象。这一新的全人类的教会就是国际社会主义运动,他们宣称,要为这个受尽磨难的世界带来人性救赎的福音。 Prime Minister Tsipras (known as the Greek “Che Guevara”) said that “the communist regime . . . at least had humanity at the center of their thinking.” Young and radical politicians such as he do not feel the need to explain the criminal deeds of the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917. 被称为“希腊的切•格瓦拉”的希腊总理齐普拉斯说,“共产主义政权……起码以人道主义作为核心考量。”像他那样年轻激进的政客们,似乎从不觉得有必要解释1917年布尔什维克革命所犯下的罪行。 Instead of looking at the horrors of the Gulag, the leaders of Syriza and Podemos offer their audience the same toxic and yet mesmerizing incantations that make people forget about the Ukrainian Holodomor or about the Stalinist labor camps of Perm, Volga Canal, and Pitești (the latter experiment being described by Vladimir Tismăneanu in his 2014 book on The Devil in History). 激进左翼联盟和“我们可以”的领袖们也无视古拉格的丑陋和残酷,他们拿催眠咒语来荼毒信众,让他们忘记乌克兰大饥荒,忘记设在彼尔姆、伏尔加运河与皮特什蒂的斯大林式劳改营(弗拉迪米尔•蒂斯马尼努在他2014年出版的《历史中的魔鬼》中对皮特什蒂的实验项目也有所描述)。 When a freely elected leader of a European nation can say that “humanity” was “at the center” of the communist experiment, we must pause and ask ourselves: How can Europe regain the vast amount of moral clarity it has lost since the 1989-1991 period? Will perhaps the foe of the former evil empire make a Reaganite comeback to help Europe find its way? Might we believe that a future President of the United States will call out the new Jacobins? May we hope that future leaders of democratic parties will stop indulging in a shameless nostalgia for Marx and Lenin? 连一个欧洲国家自由选举产生的领导人,都能说出“人道主义”处于共产主义实践的“核心位置”这样的话来,我们必须停下来问问自己:欧洲如何能重新厘清自1989-1991年巨变以来就已经变得模糊的道德观念?过往邪恶帝国的敌人会不会以一个里根式的王者归来,帮助欧洲重回正轨?我们会不会相信美国未来的总统会请新雅各宾派重出江湖?我们可不可以希望未来民主政党的领导人不要再不知廉耻地缅怀马克思和列宁? It is a matter of historical record that, like the victims of the Shoah, the prisoners of communism underwent unimaginable physical degradation and psychological torture. Who will educate the Prime Minister of Greece and tell him of Alexander Solzhenitsyn’s long-lasting witness? Who will enlighten Pablo Iglesias Turrión about the black mass which, in the name of humanity, the KGB proxies organized at Pitești Prison during the late 1950s? Students of theology living under communism were forced to denounce God, to mock Christ, and to blaspheme the name of the Virgin Mary under the burden of extreme beatings and despicable sufferings. 就如同电影《浩劫》中的受害人那样,共产主义的囚徒经受了无法想象的身体摧残和心理折磨,这是铁一般的历史事实。难道没有人教育一下希腊总理,告诉他索尔仁尼琴长期以来所目睹的那些惨况?难道没有人告诉伊格莱西亚斯,1950年代末克格勃特工以人道主义的名义在皮特什蒂监狱组织的黑色弥撒是什么?生活在共产主义国家的神学学生,在酷刑的胁迫之下,要被迫批判上帝,嘲笑耶稣基督,亵渎中伤圣母玛利亚。 Such was the “love” for “humanity” that millions of people witnessed during the 20th century. Such are the untruths that vote-seeking, parliament-leading Marxist revolutionaries want to pour into the minds of ordinary men and women, who may begin their adult life by searching for a better job, but might end their pursuit of happiness by embracing an obsolete and evil ideology. 这些就是数以百万计的民众在20世纪所亲眼目睹的“人道主义”之“爱”,这些也是唯选票是图的马克思主义革命家们想对普通民众灌输的颠倒黑白的谎言。人们原本不过是想在成年后找一份好点的工作,但却可能只因向一种过时而邪恶的意识形态张开怀抱,而令追求幸福的梦想彻底破灭。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]暖化怀疑论者沦为阶级敌人

Kerry: Doubters of Global-warming Apocalypse Must Be Silenced
克里:必须让怀疑全球变暖末日灾难的人闭嘴

作者:William F. Jasper @ 2015-11-20
译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:慕白(@李凤阳他说)
来源:New American,http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/21999-kerry-doubters-of-global-warming-

In a speech delivered November 10 at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, Secretary of State John Kerry appeared to be intentionally amping up the already incendiary rhetoric aimed at those scientists and citizens who express doubt or skepticism about — or opposition to — the wild, apocalyptic claims of the climate-change choir.

针对气候变化合唱团做出的鲁莽轻率的末日灾难预言,部分科学家及某些公民表达了自己的犹豫或怀疑,或反对。他们本就已经处在煽动人心的批评言论包围之下,而国务卿克里11月10日在弗吉尼亚州的欧道明大学诺福克分校发表的演讲则似乎是故意要加大力度煽风点火。

“The science tells us unequivocally, those who continue to make climate change a political fight put us all at risk,” Kerry said. “And we cannot sit idly by and allow them to do that.”

“科学无可置辩地告诉我们,如果有人还要继续把气候变化问题转变为政治斗争,他们就会将我们所有人都推向悬崖”,克里说。“我们绝不能袖手旁观,任由他们这么干。”

This was not the first time Secretary Kerry has made comments that lightly veil an implicit threat aimed at climate realists. Kerry, who has been beating the anthropogenic (manmade) global  war(more...)

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Kerry: Doubters of Global-warming Apocalypse Must Be Silenced 克里:必须让怀疑全球变暖末日灾难的人闭嘴 作者:William F. Jasper @ 2015-11-20 译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 校对:慕白(@李凤阳他说) 来源:New American,http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/21999-kerry-doubters-of-global-warming- In a speech delivered November 10 at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, Secretary of State John Kerry appeared to be intentionally amping up the already incendiary rhetoric aimed at those scientists and citizens who express doubt or skepticism about — or opposition to — the wild, apocalyptic claims of the climate-change choir. 针对气候变化合唱团做出的鲁莽轻率的末日灾难预言,部分科学家及某些公民表达了自己的犹豫或怀疑,或反对。他们本就已经处在煽动人心的批评言论包围之下,而国务卿克里11月10日在弗吉尼亚州的欧道明大学诺福克分校发表的演讲则似乎是故意要加大力度煽风点火。 “The science tells us unequivocally, those who continue to make climate change a political fight put us all at risk,” Kerry said. “And we cannot sit idly by and allow them to do that.” “科学无可置辩地告诉我们,如果有人还要继续把气候变化问题转变为政治斗争,他们就会将我们所有人都推向悬崖”,克里说。“我们绝不能袖手旁观,任由他们这么干。” This was not the first time Secretary Kerry has made comments that lightly veil an implicit threat aimed at climate realists. Kerry, who has been beating the anthropogenic (manmade) global  warming (AGW) drum loudly all year long, in preparation for the imminent UN Climate Summit in Paris, made a similar comment before the Atlantic Council in March. 国务卿克里已经不是第一次发表这种隐隐透着对气候现实主义者的含蓄威胁的言论。整整一年来,克里一直在大声敲响人类活动(人为的)造成全球变暖(AGW)这面大鼓,以此为即将在巴黎召开的联合国气候峰会作准备。三月份,他在大西洋理事会上就已经发表过类似评论。 “When an apple falls from a tree, it will drop toward the ground. We know that because of the basic laws of physics. Science tells us that gravity exists, and no one disputes that,” Kerry said, in statement of supposedly unassailable logic that should end all debate. “Science also tells us that when the water temperature drops below 32 degrees Fahrenheit, it turns to ice. No one disputes that,” he continued. “苹果从树上下落,它就会掉到地上。基于物理学的基本规律,我们确知这一点。科学告诉我们存在重力,没人会对此提出质疑”,克里如是说,其口气似乎是要用铁一般的逻辑终结一切争议。他接着说,“科学还告诉我们,如果水温降到华氏32度以下,就会变成冰。也没有谁对此提出质疑。” Then came the “logical” clincher: “So when science tells us that our climate is changing and human beings are largely causing that change, by what right do people stand up and just say, ‘well, I dispute that, or I deny that elementary truth?’” 然后“逻辑”铁证就来了:“因此我们就要问,当科学告诉我们气候正在发生变化并且这种变化主要是由人类导致的时候,人们有什么权利直接站出来说‘我不同意,或我拒绝接受这个基本真理’?” Yes, by what right? After all, they are “putting us all at risk,” right? “And we cannot sit idly by and allow them to do that,” can we? 对,有什么权利?毕竟他们“正把我们推向悬崖”,不是吗?“我们绝不能袖手旁观,任由他们这么干”,对吧? Kerry doesn’t say what “we” can do to stop these doubters who put us all at risk, but he is playing to a powerful global choir that has already been salting public opinion with invective, the purpose of which is to demonize and criminalize those who challenge the “elementary truth” or the “settled science” of the AGW alarmists. 克里没有说的是,为要阻止这些把我们所有人都推向悬崖的怀疑者,“我们”能够做些什么。但他的言论是在迎合一个势力强大的全球大合唱,后者一直在用攻击谩骂来挑拨公众意见,目的在于妖魔化那些挑战“人为全球暖化说”警世派的“基本真理”或“牢固科学”的人,让公众相信这些人的所作所为是在犯罪。 Recently, as we have reported, U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) called on the Obama administration earlier this year to use the anti-mafia Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) to persecute heretics who cast doubt on the AGW dogma. 不久前我们曾报道过,美国参议员Sheldon Whitehouse(罗得岛州民主党人士)今年初呼吁奥巴马政府利用《反不正当敛财及腐败组织法》(RICO)这一反黑法案来追究那些对“人为全球暖化说”教义表示怀疑的异端分子的责任。 That tyrannical proposal, which should have earned Senator Whitehouse an immediate recall effort, was echoed shortly afterward when a group of 20 so-called climate scientists sent a letter to President Obama urging him to use the federal RICO statute to prosecute their fellow scientists who disagree with them and publicly expose the fallacies and fraud underpinning the “settled science” of cataclysmic climate change. 这是一个暴虐的提议, Whitehouse参议员本应立即手忙脚乱地收回,但相反地,他却很快就听到了回声。一个由20位所谓气候科学家组成的团体致信奥巴马总统,要求他启用联邦RICO法案起诉其他科学家,只因他们持有不同意见,并且公开揭露灾难性气候变化的“牢固科学”所倚为支撑的谬误和欺诈。 Talking Points Memo (TPM) infamously published an article (which has since been removed from its website) entiled, “At what point do we jail or execute global warming deniers.” “谈话要点备忘录”(TPM)曾刊登过一篇题为“我们什么时候会把全球变暖抵赖派们送进监狱或处决了事”的文章(现已从其网站上撤下),舆论为之哗然。 Posted under the pseudonym “The Insolent Braggart,” the profane incitement to violence and intolerance of diverse opinion stated: 文章以“狂野吹牛人”为笔名发表,无耻地煽动对不同意见采取暴力和不宽容态度。文中写道: What is so frustrating about these fools is that they are the politicians and greedy bastards who don’t want a cut in their profits who use bogus science or the lowest scientists in the gene pool who will distort data for a few bucks. The vast majority of the scientific minds in the World agree and understand it’s a very serious problem that can do an untold amount of damage to life on Earth. 这些笨蛋最让人不爽的地方就是,他们都是些政客,都是些贪得无厌的混蛋,凡是自己的利益一点都不愿放弃。他们依靠的都是些伪科学,或者都是些基因最低贱的科学家,这些人为了一点点钱就可以篡改数据。世界上绝大多数科学才俊都同意并且深知,我们面对的是一个非常严肃的麻烦,有可能会对地球生命造成无法形容的巨大损害。 So when the right wing f***tards have caused it to be too late to fix the problem, and we start seeing the devastating consequences and we start seeing end of the World type events — how will we punish those responsible. It will be too late. So shouldn’t we start punishing them now? 所以,如果让这些右翼傻x把事情搞到无可挽回,毁灭性的后果就在眼前,并且我们能够看到世界末日之类的事情就要发生,如果到了这种时候,我们要如何惩罚那些应当为此负责的人。那时候必定为时已晚。所以,难道我们不应该现在就开始惩罚他们吗? Very prominent voices in the climate-alarmism choir have been priming the lynch mob. 在气候变化危言警世者煽动暴民动用私刑的大合唱中,这是非常突出的声音。 James Hansen, the discredited NASA climateer and “grandfather” of the AGW lobby, called for prosecution of climate-catastrophe skeptics for “high crimes against humanity.” James Hansen是NASA里一位声名扫地的气候学家,也是“人为全球暖化说”游说活动的“老祖宗”。他也曾呼吁以“反人类重罪”的名义起诉那些怀疑气候灾变的人。 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who is notorious for his environmental extremism, has said of climate realists who doubt the UN IPCC dogma: “This is treason, and we need to start treating them as traitors.” Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. 向来因其环保极端主义立场而臭名远扬。针对怀疑联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会教条的气候现实主义者,他曾经如此说:“这就是叛国罪,我们应该现在就开始将他们视同叛徒来处理。” Joe Romm, a former Clinton administration official who now runs the influential alarmist ClimateProgress website, published a commenter who ominously threatened climate skeptics: “It is not my wrath you need fear when there’s an entire generation that will soon be ready to strangle you and your kind while you sleep in your beds.” Joe Roman曾在克林顿政府担任官员,现在运营着危言警世派一个非常有影响力的网站,叫做“气候进步”。他之前曾发表过一位评论员的文章,该文阴狠地威胁气候变化怀疑论者:“在整整一代人都随时准备要趁你睡着把你和你的同类们统统勒死之际,你要害怕的并不是我的愤怒。” This may not be an idle threat, as millions of school kids are being brainwashed with emotional AGW propaganda in classrooms across the nation, and around the world. Romm later took the comment down, but defended it by claiming it “was clearly not a threat but a prediction,” and those who detected a threat had “misread it.” 这种威胁恐怕并不是空口说白话,此时此刻,全国各地及全世界的课堂里,数以百万计的在校学生正在被洗脑,接受“人为全球暖化说”的情绪化宣传。Romm 后来把这一评论撤下了网站,但又为之辩护,称其“明显不是威胁,只是预测”,所有从中察觉到威胁的人都“误解了文意”。 Bill Nye, of TV fame as “The Science Guy,” recently appeared on the Huffington Post’s TV program, where he called on the host to stop using the term “skeptic” and use the more hateful term “denier” when referring to climate realists. “We just don’t like to use that word [skepticism],” Nye told host Josh Zepps. “These people are deniers.” Bill Nye在电视上的“科学哥”身份广为人知。他最近在参加《赫芬顿邮报》的一个电视节目时,要求主持人不要使用“怀疑论者”这一词汇来称呼气候现实主义者,而是用一个更具仇视性的词汇:“抵赖派”。“我们就是不喜欢用这个词(怀疑主义)”,Nye对主持人Josh Zepps说。“这些人就是抵赖派。” In a November 6, 2015 interview with Salon, Nye again hit the theme of tarring opponents with the “denier” label, censoring them, and denying them a place at the “debate” table. “Part of the solution to this problem or this set of problems associated with climate change is getting the deniers out of our discourse,” said Nye. “You know, we can’t have these people — they’re absolutely toxic.” 在2015年11月6日接受“沙龙”采访时,Nye又一次找到了节奏,用“抵赖派”的标签污蔑对手、封他们的口,并拒绝让他们在“辩论”桌上拥有一席之地。“要解决与气候变化有关的这一问题或这一套问题,要求我们先将抵赖派赶出对话席”,Nye如是说。“你知道吧,这些人不能出现,他们绝对有毒。” Nye was one of the signers of a letter sent to media organizations last December calling on journalists to stigmatize AGW skeptics as “deniers.” Among the dozens of academics who signed the letter (which was larded heavily with psychologists and social “science” professors) were, notably, the two academics most responsible for concocting the fraudulent claim that “97 percent” of scientists endorse the “overwhelming consensus” that AGW is a serious danger: John Cook and Naomi Oreskes. 去年12月,曾有人写信呼吁新闻记者使用“抵赖派”这一蔑称来称呼“人为全球暖化说”的怀疑者,Nye正是联署人之一。参与联署的学者一共有几十位(为信件增色的主要是心理学家和社会“科学”教授)。其中最出名的是这两位,John Cook和Naomi Oreskes,正是他们俩一起炮制出了一个欺骗性的说法:“97%”的科学家赞同人为制造的气候变化确属严重危害这一“压倒性共识”。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

功利计算vs拇指法则

【2016-04-14】

@whigzhou: 最优化vs满意解,功利计算vs拇指法则,天堂墙外寻路者vs险恶世界幸存者,画出世界地图然后大步迈向天堂vs泥泞大雾中小步摸索,进步主义vs保守主义……所以这其实是个算法问题,在一个可行解分布极为稀疏且迷雾重重能见度极低的险恶世界中,保守主义是不二之选,可惜哈耶克死得太早没想明白这一点。

@whigzhou: 只要你是进化论者,就会认识到我们面临的选择空间中可行解分布极为稀疏,是进化算法帮我们找出了这些可行解孤岛,而不是世界恰好被上帝造得那么宜居,进步主义的乐观假定其实是一种幸存者偏(more...)

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【2016-04-14】 @whigzhou: 最优化vs满意解,功利计算vs拇指法则,天堂墙外寻路者vs险恶世界幸存者,画出世界地图然后大步迈向天堂vs泥泞大雾中小步摸索,进步主义vs保守主义……所以这其实是个算法问题,在一个可行解分布极为稀疏且迷雾重重能见度极低的险恶世界中,保守主义是不二之选,可惜哈耶克死得太早没想明白这一点。 @whigzhou: 只要你是进化论者,就会认识到我们面临的选择空间中可行解分布极为稀疏,是进化算法帮我们找出了这些可行解孤岛,而不是世界恰好被上帝造得那么宜居,进步主义的乐观假定其实是一种幸存者偏见(喂,这才是幸存者偏见的正确用法, @whigzhou: 只要你认识到人类认知局限,就会同意我们面对的(认识论上的)世界迷雾重重,能见度极低,随便乱走很危险。 @whigzhou: 在这两个前提下,就有了对待功利主义的两种态度:功利主义(至少流行的版本)总想在给定价值函数之后寻求最大化,保守派天然讨厌功利主义,因为我们不要最大化,世界太险恶,如何保住我们所珍视的东西才最重要,所以,在弄清进化如何带给我们这些珍宝之前,不如先找出一组拇指法则。 @whigzhou: 这些拇指法则只能从那些有幸成功保有了这些珍宝的前辈的实践中去寻找,(基于前述局限)不可能是从头算出来的,正如我们已经看到的,功利主义算法对条件过于敏感,略微改变一个条件,或者稍稍多考虑一步,结论就可能完全翻转(黑话叫很混沌),如此便无法为我们提供一个可用的行动指导。 @战拖拉夫卡: "中国模式"到底是更接近于辉总所说的“功利最大化计算”,还是更接近于中国情境意义下的“拇指法则”?毕竟,摸石头过河这一策略也算得上实用主义范畴吧。需要甄别的是在中国现有路径依赖之上的实用主义,算是画地图大步迈向天堂还是在泥泞大雾中小步摸索? @whigzhou: 彼之珍宝,吾之敝履 @whigzhou: 我说的保守主义/进步主义,是元政治哲学层次上的分野,不涉及保守的具体是什么东西,哈耶克没想明白的,正是这一层次之别 @whigzhou: 正如契约主义/普世主义之别,是元伦理层次上的分野,不涉及具体契约内容 @whigzhou: 摸着石头过河这句话本身是契合保守主义的,问题是说这句话的人心目中的珍宝是什么?如果他的意思是“咱们就此散伙吧,让各省人民自己摸着石头爬向美国去”,那自然好~  
[译文]教育会减少恐怖主义?

More Education = Less Terrorism? Studying the Complex Relationship Between Terrorism and Education
教育会减少恐怖主义?对教育与恐怖主义之间复杂关系的研究

作者:Sarah Brockhoff, Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks @ 2015-12-04
译者:Luis Rightcon(@Rightcon)
校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:Political Violence @ a Glance, http://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2015/12/04/more-education-less-terrorism-studying-the-complex-relationship-between-terrorism-and-education/

In the aftermath of terrorist attacks, education is often advocated as an antidote to terrorism, the idea primarily being that education may make individuals less vulnerable to the false promises of extremist ideologies. For instance, in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington DC on September 11, 2001, Eli Wiesel – the 1986 Nobel Peace Prize laureate – argued:

在恐怖袭击的余波中,教育经常被提出来作为疗治恐怖主义的解药。基本的想法是,教育可以增强个人对于极端主义意识形态虚假承诺的免疫力。比如说,在2001年纽约和华盛顿特区的911恐袭发生之后,Eli Wiesel(1986年诺贝尔和平奖得主)声称:

What is it that seduces some young people to terrorism? It simplifies things. The fanatic has no questions, only answers. Education is the way to eliminate terrorism.

“究竟是什么把一些年轻人推向恐怖主义?就是因为它简单粗暴。盲从狂热者没有问题,只有答案。而教育就是消除恐怖主义的方法。”

While intuitive, the academic evidence on the terrorism-education nexus tends to be more pessi(more...)

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More Education = Less Terrorism? Studying the Complex Relationship Between Terrorism and Education 教育会减少恐怖主义?对教育与恐怖主义之间复杂关系的研究 作者:Sarah Brockhoff, Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks @ 2015-12-04 译者:Luis Rightcon(@Rightcon) 校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:Political Violence @ a Glance, http://politicalviolenceataglance.org/2015/12/04/more-education-less-terrorism-studying-the-complex-relationship-between-terrorism-and-education/ In the aftermath of terrorist attacks, education is often advocated as an antidote to terrorism, the idea primarily being that education may make individuals less vulnerable to the false promises of extremist ideologies. For instance, in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington DC on September 11, 2001, Eli Wiesel – the 1986 Nobel Peace Prize laureate – argued: 在恐怖袭击的余波中,教育经常被提出来作为疗治恐怖主义的解药。基本的想法是,教育可以增强个人对于极端主义意识形态虚假承诺的免疫力。比如说,在2001年纽约和华盛顿特区的911恐袭发生之后,Eli Wiesel(1986年诺贝尔和平奖得主)声称: What is it that seduces some young people to terrorism? It simplifies things. The fanatic has no questions, only answers. Education is the way to eliminate terrorism. “究竟是什么把一些年轻人推向恐怖主义?就是因为它简单粗暴。盲从狂热者没有问题,只有答案。而教育就是消除恐怖主义的方法。” While intuitive, the academic evidence on the terrorism-education nexus tends to be more pessimistic. On the national level, education is usually found to share little relationship with terrorism. What is more, on the individual level, there is evidence that the more educated are more likely to become terrorists. 但是,关于恐怖主义与教育之间的联系,尽管听起来很直观,但学术依据却寥寥无几。在国家层面上,人们发现,教育一般与恐怖主义联系甚微。更有甚者,在个人层面上,有证据表明接受过更高教育的人群反而更可能会变成恐怖分子。 For instance, education may fuel terrorism by raising the probability of terrorist success (i.e., the “productivity of terrorists”) through the use of high-capacity (i.e., well-educated) operatives. Indeed, due to the positive effect of individual human capital endowment on terrorist success, terrorist organizations tend to be particularly interested in selecting more educated members. 比如说,受过教育的恐怖分子会因为实行高技能(也就是受过良好教育)行动而在恐怖活动成功率(也就是“恐怖分子的生产率”)上有所增加,这样,教育可能就加剧了恐怖主义。实际上,由于个人的技能天分对于恐怖行动成功与否具有积极影响,恐怖组织特别倾向于选召受过更好教育的成员。 In our new study, we provide a framework to better understand the apparently complex interaction between terrorism and education, trying to reconcile the popular narrative that education may remedy terrorism with the prevalent academic viewpoint that education – if anything – is associated with more terrorism. 在一项新研究中,我们提出了一个理论框架来更好地理解恐怖主义与教育之间看似很复杂的关系,并且尝试调和两个观点:即教育可以纠正恐怖主义这一大众叙事,和教育只会与恐怖主义增加相联系的流行学术观点。 We argue that there is some truth to both the optimistic and pessimistic views regarding the terrorism-education nexus. The ultimate effect of education on terrorism is linked to country-specific circumstances which moderate whether the pacifying or inflammatory effects of education on terrorism prevail. 我们认为,对于恐怖主义-教育关系的悲观和乐观看法各有可取之处。教育对于恐怖主义的最终效用是与特定的国家环境相联系的,在不同的国家环境中,教育可能缓和也可能加剧恐怖主义的流行。 Education always increases the individual and society-wide prospect of socioeconomic and political participation as well as individual productivity and intellectual capacity (where the latter may further magnify individual expectations about one’s politico-economic position in society). That is, education always creates “great expectations.” 教育总是会增加个人和全社会的社会经济和政治参与度,同时也会提升个人的创造能力和才智(而后者也许会进一步提高个人对于自己在社会中政治经济地位的期望)。也就是说,教育总是会创造“远大前程”抱负。 Sound country-specific conditions help these expectations to materialize, thus reducing incentives for terrorism. For instance, more educated individuals unsurprisingly expect higher wages; however, higher wages are only likely to materialize when country-specific conditions are sound (e.g. as the economy grows, as labor market competition due to demographic pressures is limited, or as corruption and nepotism do not strongly distort labor market outcomes). 健康的特定国家状态能帮助这些理想成为现实,因此减弱恐怖主义的动机。例如,受过更高教育的人群不出意料会期望更高的薪水;然而,更高薪水只会在特定国家状态很健康时才可能实现(例如经济保持增长,因人口压力而导致的劳动力市场竞争不大激烈,或者腐败和裙带关系并未强烈扰乱劳动力市场运转)。 By contrast, when country-specific conditions are poor (e.g. slow economic growth, strong labor market competition, and distortions due to youth bulges and corrupt institutions), the same “great expectations” are likely to end in frustration, consequently facilitating recruitment to terrorist violence. 与之相反,当特定国家状态很差劲时(比如经济增长缓慢,劳动力市场竞争激烈,青年人口膨胀和制度腐败),同样的“远大前程”就很可能会以受挫告终,因此就会为恐怖分子的暴力行动提供后备力量。 Under such circumstances, education may actually facilitate mobilization by amplifying feelings of frustration and disenfranchisement that arise from unaddressed socioeconomic and politico-economic grievances and unrealized socioeconomic and political participation. This is because education is expected to make it easier for individuals to recognize injustice and discrimination, leading to the uncomfortable – but plausible – situation where more education facilitates radicalization. 这样的情况下,因为社会经济和政治经济方面的不满没有得到解决,同时社会参与和政治参与愿望没能实现,教育实际上会增强由此产生的挫折感和权利受损感,从而促进社会动员。这是因为,教育很可能会使个人更容易察觉不公正和歧视,从而导致那种令人不安却合情合理的情况:更多的教育反而促进极端化。 What is more, the highly-educated may find “careers” in terrorism particularly attractive. When country-specific conditions are poor, the rewards offered by terrorist organizations to skilled operatives (wages, political influence, but also martyrdom) may be closer to the especially high expectations of the educated about personal income and political influence than anything the regular labor market can offer. 不仅如此,高学历人群可能还会发现恐怖主义的“职业生涯”特别具有吸引力。当特定国家状况非常不堪时,恐怖组织提供给技术人员的酬劳(工资、政治影响力、还包括殉道感)会更加符合高学历人群对于个人收入和政治影响力的极高期望,这是任何常规劳动力市场都不能提供的。 We test our theoretical framework on a sample of 133 countries for the 1984-2007 period. Our findings can be summarized as follows: 我们用1984年至2007年间133个国家的样本检验了我们的理论框架。我们得出的结果可以归结如下:
  • A “naïve” statistical model for the complete sample of 133 countries, we find that education – in line with the narrative of the academic literature – tends to correlate positively, albeit only weakly, with terrorism.
  • 一个针对133个国家的完整样本的“幼稚”统计模型中,我们发现教育——与学术文献的描述一致——与恐怖主义趋向于正相关,尽管仅仅是弱相关性。
  • To account for country-specific conditions we identify two groups of countries that differ strongly with respect to their economic, politico-institutional, and demographic conditions. Conditions in the first group are markedly poorer, exhibiting a weaker rule of law, poorer protection of human and property rights, slower economic growth, but higher levels of corruption, population growth, and inflation.
  • 为了阐明特定国家状况,我们区别出经济、政治制度和人口条件完全不同的两组国家。第一组的状况明显较差,表现出较差的法治环境、人权和财产权利保护不力、经济增长缓慢、而且腐败问题更严重、人口增长过快、通货膨胀严重。
  • For the group of poorly developed countries (often located in Latin America, Asia, or Sub-Saharan Africa), we find that variables reflecting lower education (primary education, literacy rate) are associated with more terrorism, while higher education (university enrollment) does not play a role.
  • 在发展状态较差的这组国家(普遍位于拉丁美洲、亚洲或者撒哈拉以南非洲)中,我们发现反映初等教育水平的参数(小学教育、识字率)与滋生更多恐怖主义相关联,而高等教育水平(大学入学率)则并没有什么影响。
  • For the group of countries in which conditions are more favorable, we find no positive association between lower education and terrorism. Instead, we find a negative (terrorism-reducing) and statistically significant effect of higher education (university enrollment) on domestic terrorism.
  • 对于另外一组情况更好的国家,我们发现初等教育和恐怖主义之间没有什么正相关。相反,我们发现高等教育(大学入学率)对于国内恐怖主义的影响为负(即会减少恐怖主义),且这种效应在统计上很显著。
In sum, our empirical analysis thus provides support for our theoretical framework, where the eventual effect of education on terrorism depends on the presence of further moderating conditions. We argue that our theoretical framework  not only explains the Middle Eastern experience of terrorism by rather well-educated terrorists, but also explains the recent series of popular uprisings of the Arab Spring, which similarly seem to have been fueled by advances in education and a lack of economic and political participation. 总而言之,我们的实证分析为我们的理论框架提供了支持:教育对恐怖主义的最终影响是由更进一步的约束条件决定的。我们认为,我们的理论框架不仅能解释中东地区产生高学历恐怖分子的恐怖主义经验,也能解释最近阿拉伯之春中的系列人民起义,两者相似,似乎都是因教育进步而经济与政治上的参与度却很低而导致的。 Similarly, historical events in the West – such as the revolutionary waves in Western Europe in the 18th and 19th century – where educational advances, when coupled with poor structural conditions,  promoted instability are in line with our theoretical framework. 类似的,西方世界的一些历史性事件——比如西欧在十八和十九世纪的革命浪潮——也与我们的理论框架相一致:当时教育实现进步,同时存在糟糕的结构性条件,两相结合导致了不稳定。 Our study indicates that the linkage between terrorism and education is likely to depend on country-specific (macroeconomic, institutional, etc.) conditions. We invite future research to analyze further which country-specific conditions matter the most to the mechanics of the nexus. Also, studying the role of education content, gender disparities in education, and education inequality may prove helpful to furthering our understanding. 我们的研究表明,恐怖主义和教育的联系很可能依赖于特定国家状态(宏观经济、国家制度等)。我们期待更进一步的研究能够深层次分析究竟是哪一种特定国家状态在这一相关机制中有着最大的影响。同时,研究教育内容、教育上的性别差距和教育不平等等因素扮演的角色,也会对深化我们的理解有所助益。 From a policy perspective, our findings indicate that education produces “great expectations” and may result in “hard times” (terrorism) when those expectations are not met. This suggests that a sole strengthening of education in less developed countries may not help in the war on terror and may even prove – at times – counterproductive. 从政策角度看,我们的分析指出,教育会产生“远大前程”,而当这些抱负没有实现时,就可能导致“艰难时世”(即恐怖主义)。这提示了,在欠发达国家单独加强教育可能不会对反恐战争有帮助,甚至结果可能是——至少偶尔是——帮倒忙。 Rather, the promotion of education should be accompanied by domestic and international efforts to ameliorate poor socioeconomic, politico-institutional, and demographic conditions to make it possible for the promise of education to actually materialize. 实际情形是,提升教育水平应当伴随有国内和国际共同努力来改善社会经济上的、政治制度上的以及人口上的糟糕状态,这样才可能使得教育所许诺的希望真正变现。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]被踢出局的气候学家

‘I was tossed out of the tribe’: climate scientist Judith Curry interviewed
被踢出局的气候学家,采访Judith Curry

作者:David Rose @ 2015-11-28
译者:龟海海(@龟海海)
校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:The Spectator,http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/i-was-tossed-out-of-the-tribe-climate-scientist-judith-curry-interviewed/

For engaging with sceptics, and discussing uncertainties in projections frankly, this Georgia professor is branded a heretic
由于在全球变暖问题上和怀疑论者打交道,还坦率地谈论预测的不确定性,这位来自美国佐治亚理工学院的教授被指斥为异端。

It is safe to predict that when 20,000 world leaders, officials, green(more...)

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‘I was tossed out of the tribe’: climate scientist Judith Curry interviewed 被踢出局的气候学家,采访Judith Curry 作者:David Rose @ 2015-11-28 译者:龟海海(@龟海海) 校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:The Spectator,http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/i-was-tossed-out-of-the-tribe-climate-scientist-judith-curry-interviewed/ For engaging with sceptics, and discussing uncertainties in projections frankly, this Georgia professor is branded a heretic 由于在全球变暖问题上和怀疑论者打交道,还坦率地谈论预测的不确定性,这位来自美国佐治亚理工学院的教授被指斥为异端。 It is safe to predict that when 20,000 world leaders, officials, green activists and hangers-on convene in Paris next week for the 21st United Nations climate conference, one person you will not see much quoted is Professor Judith Curry. This is a pity. Her record of peer-reviewed publication in the best climate-science journals is second to none, and in America she has become a public intellectual. 可以明确的说,下周在巴黎举行的第21届联合国气候变化大会上,两万参会者将包括各国领导人、官员、环保主义者和各种跟班,但是你恐怕不太可能听到Judith Curry教授的声音。这很让人遗憾。她在气候学顶尖期刊上发表的经同行评审的论文数量首屈一指,而且她在美国还是一位公共知识分子。 But on this side of the Atlantic, apparently, she is too ‘challenging’. What is troubling about her pariah status is that her trenchant critique of the supposed consensus on global warming is not derived from warped ideology, let alone funding by fossil-fuel firms, but from solid data and analysis. 然而,她在大洋彼岸却不受待见,很明显,她太诘问不休咄咄逼人了。但她的这种受排斥地位颇为棘手,因为她对据称的全球变暖共识的尖刻批判并非基于意识形态扭曲,更不是由石化企业赞助的,而是基于真切的数据和分析。 Some consider her a heretic. According to Professor Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, a vociferous advocate of extreme measures to prevent a climatic Armageddon, she is ‘anti-science’. Curry isn’t fazed by the slur. 有人把她看成是个异端。宾夕法尼亚州立大学的Michael Mann 教授一直呼吁运用极端手段防止气候“末日决战”灾难发生,就曾称Curry为“反科学”份子。Curry并未被这一诽谤吓慌。 ‘It’s unfortunate, but he calls anyone who doesn’t agree with him a denier,’ she tells me. ‘Inside the climate community there are a lot of people who don’t like what I’m doing. On the other hand, there is also a large, silent group who do like it. But the debate has become hard — especially in the US, because it’s become so polarised.’ 她告诉我:“怪我咯,他把所有和他意见不同的人都叫做‘抵赖派’。在气候研究群体中,有很多人讨厌我所做的事。但是,的确有那么一大群沉默份子喜欢我的观点。但讨论已经变得困难重重——尤其是在美国,已经严重两极化了。” Warming alarmists are fond of proclaiming how 97 per cent of scientists agree that the world is getting hotter, and human beings are to blame. They like to reduce the uncertainties of climate science and climate projections to Manichean simplicity. They have managed to eliminate doubt from what should be a nuanced debate about what to do. 全球变暖的危言警世者总喜欢宣称,97%的科学家都已同意人类活动导致了世界变暖的观点。他们喜欢忽略气候科学和气候预测的不确定性,像摩尼教徒那样以善恶二元对立论简化问题。关于我们要做什么,本来需要细致讨论,但经过他们努力,现在一切疑虑都被忽略了。 Professor Curry, based at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, does not dispute for a moment that human-generated carbon dioxide warms the planet. But, she says, the evidence suggests this may be happening more slowly than the alarmists fear. 这位来自亚特兰大市佐治亚理工学院的Curry教授,从没有说过要质疑人类排放二氧化碳使地球变暖这个事实。但她提到,证据表明,变暖速度可能比那些危言警世者所担忧的要慢得多。 In the run-up to the Paris conference, said Curry, much ink has been spilled over whether the individual emissions pledges made so far by more than 150 countries — their ‘intentional nationally determined contributions’, to borrow the jargon — will be enough to stop the planet from crossing the ‘dangerous’ threshold of becoming 2°C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Curry提到,迄今已有超过150个国家提出了减排目标承诺——行话叫做“国家自主贡献”,巴黎峰会预热阶段,大部分媒体都在讨论这些目标是否能够确保地球不会超过预警阈值——比工业化时代之前变暖2℃。 Much of the conference will consist of attempts to make these targets legally binding. This debate will be conducted on the basis that there is a known, mechanistic relationship between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and how world average temperatures will rise. 会议的一个主要内容就是要让这些目标在法律上生效。进行这种讨论需要一个前提:我们已经掌握了大气二氧化碳浓度与世界平均气温提升程度之间的数学关系。 Unfortunately, as Curry has shown, there isn’t. Any such projection is meaningless, unless it accounts for natural variability and gives a value for ‘climate sensitivity’ —i.e., how much hotter the world will get if the level of CO2 doubles. 遗憾的是,Curry已经表明,我们没有掌握。任何此类预测都是没有意义的,除非我们在预测中把气候的自然变异考虑进去,并能够为“气候敏感度”定一个值——即当二氧化碳浓度翻倍时,地球会升温多少度。 Until 2007, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave a ‘best estimate’ of 3°C. But in its latest, 2013 report, the IPCC abandoned this, because the uncertainties are so great. Its ‘likely’ range is now vast — 1.5°C to 4.5°C. 截止2007年,联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)给出的“最佳预测”是3℃。但是,在2013年最新的报告中该部门放弃了这一数字,因为不确定因素太多。现在,“可能值”的变动范围很大,在1.5℃—4.5℃之间。 This isn’t all. According to Curry, the claims being made by policymakers suggest they are still making new policy from the old, now discarded assumptions. Recent research suggests the climate sensitivity is significantly less than 3˚C. ‘There’s growing evidence that climate sensitivity is at the lower end of the spectrum, yet this has been totally ignored in the policy debate,’ Curry told me. 这还没完。Curry接着说到,决策者们提出的种种主张,表明他们还是在用旧的、已被弃用的假设来制定新政策。而最近的研究表明,气候敏感度显著小于3℃。“有越来越多的证据表明,气候敏感度是在变化范围的低值端,但是这在政策辩论中已经被完全忽略了,”她告诉我。 ‘Even if the sensitivity is 2.5˚C, not 3˚C, that makes a substantial difference as to how fast we might get to a world that’s 2˚C warmer. A sensitivity of 2.5˚C makes it much less likely we will see 2˚C warming during the 21st century. There are so many uncertainties, but the policy people say the target is fixed. And if you question this, you will be slagged off as a denier.’ “即使敏感度是2.5℃,而不是3℃,这也是实质性的区别,会直接影响到世界究竟会以多快的速度变暖2℃。如果敏感度是2.5℃,那么我们在21世纪遭遇全球变暖2℃的可能性就会大大降低。有这么多的不确定性,但制定政策的人却说目标已经定了。如果你怀疑这一点,你会被贬成一文不值的‘抵赖派’。” Curry added that her own work, conducted with the British independent scientist Nic Lewis, suggests that the sensitivity value may still lower, in which case the date when the world would be 2˚C warmer would be even further into the future. On the other hand, the inherent uncertainties of climate projection mean that values of 4˚C cannot be ruled out — but if that turns out to be the case, then the measures discussed at Paris and all the previous 20 UN climate conferences would be futile. In any event, ‘the economists and policymakers seem unaware of the large uncertainties in climate sensitivity’, despite its enormous implications. Curry补充道,她自己和英国独立科学家Nic Lewis一起完成的研究,甚至认为敏感度的数值可能更低。若是这样,全球升温2℃的日期甚至还在将来的将来。另一方面,气候预测固有的不确定性,意味着敏感度为4℃的可能性也不能排除。但是,若是如此,此次巴黎大会和之前20届联合国气候大会讨论的措施都是白搭了。无论如何,“经济学家和决策者似乎都没有意识到气候敏感度的巨大不确定性”,尽管这种不确定性影响极大。 Meanwhile, the obsessive focus on CO2 as the driver of climate change means other research on natural climate variability is being neglected. For example, solar experts believe we could be heading towards a ‘grand solar minimum’ — a reduction in solar output (and, ergo, a period of global cooling) similar to that which once saw ice fairs on the Thames. ‘The work to establish the solar-climate connection is lagging.’ 于此同时,执意认为二氧化碳是气候变化的祸首,也使得其他关于气候自然变异的研究被忽视了。例如,太阳研究专家认为我们可能正在进入一个“太阳活动极小期”——即太阳能量输出减少(因此意味着一个全球变冷期)。类似情况过去发生时,泰晤士河上都曾出现冰雕展览(泰晤士河封冻)。“确定太阳活动与气候变化之间的关系这项工作还很滞后。” Curry’s independence has cost her dear. She began to be reviled after the 2009 ‘Climategate’ scandal, when leaked emails revealed that some scientists were fighting to suppress sceptical views. Curry的卓尔不群让她损失惨重。自2009年“气候门”丑闻后,她就开始遭到辱骂。当时,有泄密邮件显示,一些科学家正组织起来强力压制怀疑论观点。 ‘I started saying that scientists should be more accountable, and I began to engage with sceptic bloggers. I thought that would calm the waters. Instead I was tossed out of the tribe. There’s no way I would have done this if I hadn’t been a tenured professor, fairly near the end of my career. If I were seeking a new job in the US academy, I’d be pretty much unemployable. I can still publish in the peer-reviewed journals. But there’s no way I could get a government research grant to do the research I want to do. Since then, I’ve stopped judging my career by these metrics. I’m doing what I do to stand up for science and to do the right thing.’ “那时我就说科学家应该更有公信力一点,并开始和一些持怀疑论的博客作家交流。我以为那可以缓和一下气氛。结果却是,我被踢出局了。如果我不是一名终生教授,而且即将退休,我绝不会寻根问底。如果现在我要去美国的学术圈重新找工作,估计没人请我吧。我现在仍然可以在同行评鉴期刊上面发表文章。但我已被封杀,不可能得到政府研究资助来做我想做的课题。自那以后,我停止了用这些东西来衡量我的职业生涯。我现在做的,只是坚持科学,做正确的事。” She remains optimistic that science will recover its equilibrium, and that the quasi-McCarthyite tide will recede: ‘I think that by 2030, temperatures will not have increased all that much. Maybe then there will be the funding to do the kind of research on natural variability that we need, to get the climate community motivated to look at things like the solar-climate connection.’ 她依然乐观的相信,科学会找回它的平衡,现在的这种麦卡锡主义式潮流终会退去。“我认为到2030年,温度还不会升至那么高,也许那个时候,我们会找到研究资金来做我们需要做的气候自然变异研究,也能让气候组织有动力去寻找太阳活动和气候变化之间的关联。” She even hopes that rational argument will find a place in the UN: ‘Maybe, too, there will be a closer interaction between the scientists, the economists and policymakers. Wouldn’t that be great?’ 她甚至期待联合国内部能允许气候问题上的理性争论,“让科学家、经济学家和决策者们有更好的互动。这也是可能的。那样不是更好?” (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]克里姆林宫的暴君戏

The Kremlin’s Theatre of Tyranny
克里姆林宫的暴君戏

作者:Mark Galeotti @ 2015-12-26
译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:龟海海
来源:Russia!,http://readrussia.com/2015/12/26/the-kremlins-theatre-of-tyranny/

Modern Russia is no haven of human rights, but nor is it a “vicious tyranny,” a heavy-handed autocracy, a neo-Stalinism in the remaking or any of the other exercises in horrified hyperbole indulged in by some commentators.

现代俄罗斯并非人权避风港,但它也算不上“邪恶暴政”、铁腕独裁,或某些评论家乐此不疲的怂人听闻——新斯大林主义东山再起。

The irony, though, is that sometimes it suits the Kremlin to seem so. If in the days when archetypal political technologist Vladislav Surkov was the Kremlin’s choreographer in chief, the name of the dramaturgiya was fake democracy, then today it often appears to be fake tyranny.

不过讽刺的是,有时候克里姆林宫看上去还真好像配得上这些评价。如果说在弗拉基斯拉夫·苏尔科夫这位典型的政治技术家担任克里姆林宫舞蹈总监时【译注:苏尔科夫是俄罗斯“主权民主”概念的主要提出者,该概念意在区别于西式民主】,演技(dramaturgiya)的定义叫做“伪民主”的话,那么如今它似乎更应该叫做“伪专制”。

Shooting Itself in the Foot?
砸自己的脚?

Consider, for example, the latest, spine-chilling initiative of the Duma, granting the security forces the right to open fire on crowds, on women (so long as they do not appear pregnant, a bizarre humanitarian grace note or a genuflection to the need to reverse demographic decline?), or even on the disabled, if necessary to prevent or defeat a terrorist attack.

比如,想想国家杜马最近通过的那个令人不寒而栗的法案吧。该法案授予安全部队为阻止或打击恐怖主义,必要时可以对人群、妇女开火(怀孕的除外,这到底是个奇怪的人道主义装饰音符呢,还是为了扭转人口衰退的不得已之举呢?),甚至对残疾人开火的权利。

Between the very subject matter – time to(more...)

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The Kremlin’s Theatre of Tyranny 克里姆林宫的暴君戏 作者:Mark Galeotti @ 2015-12-26 译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 校对:龟海海 来源:Russia!,http://readrussia.com/2015/12/26/the-kremlins-theatre-of-tyranny/ Modern Russia is no haven of human rights, but nor is it a “vicious tyranny,” a heavy-handed autocracy, a neo-Stalinism in the remaking or any of the other exercises in horrified hyperbole indulged in by some commentators. 现代俄罗斯并非人权避风港,但它也算不上“邪恶暴政”、铁腕独裁,或某些评论家乐此不疲的怂人听闻——新斯大林主义东山再起。 The irony, though, is that sometimes it suits the Kremlin to seem so. If in the days when archetypal political technologist Vladislav Surkov was the Kremlin’s choreographer in chief, the name of the dramaturgiya was fake democracy, then today it often appears to be fake tyranny. 不过讽刺的是,有时候克里姆林宫看上去还真好像配得上这些评价。如果说在弗拉基斯拉夫·苏尔科夫这位典型的政治技术家担任克里姆林宫舞蹈总监时【译注:苏尔科夫是俄罗斯“主权民主”概念的主要提出者,该概念意在区别于西式民主】,演技(dramaturgiya)的定义叫做“伪民主”的话,那么如今它似乎更应该叫做“伪专制”。 Shooting Itself in the Foot? 砸自己的脚? Consider, for example, the latest, spine-chilling initiative of the Duma, granting the security forces the right to open fire on crowds, on women (so long as they do not appear pregnant, a bizarre humanitarian grace note or a genuflection to the need to reverse demographic decline?), or even on the disabled, if necessary to prevent or defeat a terrorist attack. 比如,想想国家杜马最近通过的那个令人不寒而栗的法案吧。该法案授予安全部队为阻止或打击恐怖主义,必要时可以对人群、妇女开火(怀孕的除外,这到底是个奇怪的人道主义装饰音符呢,还是为了扭转人口衰退的不得已之举呢?),甚至对残疾人开火的权利。 Between the very subject matter – time to pass some new macabre ordnance on the right way and time to shoot your own citizens – and what it seems to say about the Kremlin’s fear of its own people, it understandably attracted attention and alarm amongst both Russian and Western observers. 不难理解,这一事件本身——是时候该颁布新规:如何在正确的时间和方法对付本国公民——以及它所透露出的克里姆林宫对自己人民的恐惧,都引来了包括俄国和西方在内的观察人士的注意及警惕。 And so it should, especially as it coincides with apparent moves to strengthen the very arms of the state most concerned with suppressing the populace. While the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) as a whole, for example, has had to absorb a 10% across the board budget cut, the OMON riot police appear to have been protected from any cuts. Although they represent only a small proportion of the MVD, nonetheless that inevitably means more cuts in regular, front-line policing. 这是理所应当的,特别是此事发生的同时,俄国还明显采取行动要强化与镇压民众最为密切相关的政府强力部门。比如,虽然内务部(MVD)作为一个整体必须承受10%的全面预算削减,但“特种部队”(OMON)的防暴警察似乎得以免遭任何削减。虽然他们只是内务部里的一个小单位,但即便如此,这也必然意味着普通的一线警务将承担更多的预算削减。 Indeed, it emerged that the MVD is investing in, amongst other projects, lots more of a type of grenade launcher called the RGS-50M, increasing its stocks of them five-fold. This is essentially an anti-riot weapon, used to fire rubber bullets and stun and gas grenades, and very much an OMON toy. 事实上,我们发现,内务部投入的许多项目中,有一项是加大力度购买某种叫做RG5-50M的枪榴弹发射器,其在内务部的存量已经翻了5倍。这主要是一种防暴武器,用于发射橡胶子弹、眩晕手榴弹和毒气手榴弹,基本上就是OMON的玩具。 Put together, all this suggests that the Kremlin, perhaps aware that the regime’s standing is rather less secure than those misleading sky-high personal approval ratings for Putin might suggest, is arming itself against some Moscow Maidan. With labor unrest on the rise – the truckers protesting road tolls are just the most visible tip of a disgruntled iceberg – and the 2016 Duma elections bound to focus public attention on promises made and broken, they may have a point. 所有这些综合起来看,表明克里姆林宫可能意识到,俄政权的地位并不像普京那些极高的个人支持率所错误显示的那样牢靠,因而正在武装自己,防止某种“莫斯科广场革命”发生。由于劳工骚乱在增加——抗议收取过路费的卡车司机只是愤怒冰山上最为醒目的一个小角,且2016年杜马选举必将吸引民众对选举许下的承诺和未实现的许诺的关注,克里姆林宫可能没想错。 Certainly news that the government, not least the Federal Protection Service (FSO), the Kremlin’s Praetorians, are monitoring opinion in the localities and throwing money at those looking most likely to experience unrest, seems also to suggest this. 当然,也有新闻提到,俄罗斯政府,尤其是身为克里姆林宫“禁卫军”的联邦警卫署(FSO)正在监测各地舆情,并且正在向那些最可能出现骚乱的地方砸钱。这似乎也能说明问题。 The interesting thing, though, is that the news of the RGS-50M purchase was covered by government news outlet TASS. And quite why did the Duma (because let’s face it, while a forum for all kinds of crazies to say all kind of crazy things, it doesn’t go to the bathroom without the nod from the Kremlin, let alone pass a bill) actually feel the need to enshrine the dos and don’t see of massacre in a law? 不过,有趣的是,购买RGS-50M的新闻是由政府新闻机构塔斯社报道出来的。而且杜马究竟为什么觉得有必要将“大屠杀指南”写进法律也是个问题(因为,说实在的,尽管杜马是个各种疯子在一起讨论各种疯事的论坛,但要是没有克里姆林宫点头,它连厕所都不敢上,遑论通过什么法律)。 Here, after all, is the dirty little secret of all governments: when they feel they must, they kill, and generally wherever and whenever the circumstances dictate. The Federal Security Service (FSB), the main subject of the new law, would not check the statute books before shooting presumed terrorists regardless of whether they were women or disabled. 毕竟,我们这里说的是所有政府共有的不可告人的秘密:当他们觉得必要时,只要为形势所迫,无论何时何地,他们都会杀人。新法的主角——联邦警卫署——在射杀可疑恐怖分子之前可不会去翻阅法律全书,不管后者是妇女还是残疾人。 But then again, neither would any Western security service. This is not, after all, a law encouraging heedless massacres and Bloody Sundays to be held every other month. Nor is the FSB governed by the 2011 Law on Police, which does set definite guidelines on the use of lethal and non-lethal force. So why make a song and dance of what would seem to be expressions of combined viciousness and insecurity? 不过话说回来,任何西方安全部门都不会这么做。毕竟这条法律并不是鼓励每隔一个月来一次随性的大屠杀或“血腥星期天”。联邦警卫署也不属2011年《警察法》管辖,但该法倒确实对使用致命和非致命武力有明确指导。所以,问题来了,为什么要载歌载舞的演这么一出给世人看,而其内容看起来仅仅是在表达邪恶与不安全感呢? The Kremlin’s Gold Standard 克里姆林宫的黄金标准 Increasingly, it is references in the press to First Deputy Interior Minister Viktor Zolotov that seem to represent the gold standard, pun intended, of the Kremlin’s scare tactics. The former head of Putin’s bodyguard and one of his judo sparring partners, Zolotov has the reputation of being a maximalist in waiting, the kind of political policeman eager for the orders to deploy the knout and the iron fist. 媒体对内务部第一副部长维克托·佐罗托夫的报道,正日益成为克里姆林宫恐吓战术的黄金标准(此处一语双关)。佐罗托夫曾是普京的保镖头目,还是他的柔道陪练。他以随时待命的“最高纲领派”而出名,是那种极度渴望受命使用皮鞭和铁拳的政治警察。 After years as head of the presidential security detail, in 2013 he was moved to the MVD where he quickly rose from deputy commander of the Interior Troops to first deputy minister in charge of, hardly incidentally, this militarized domestic security force. 佐罗托夫曾任总统警卫部队负责人多年,于2013年调往内务部,很快就从内务部队副司令升为掌管这一负责国内保卫的军事力量的第一副部长,这绝非偶然。 Periodically, rumors float around in the press that he is poised to replace Interior Minister Viktor Kolokoltsev, a career policeman who, despite occasional forays into the kind of aggressive rhetoric seemingly expected of someone in his job, shows every sign of wanting to be a cop rather than a political enforcer. 媒体上定期地出现同样的谣言,说他被钦点接替内务部长维克多·科洛科利采夫。科洛科利采夫是位职业警察,尽管他也不时说出一些身处其位者可以预料会说出的咄咄逼人的言辞,但种种迹象表明他就是想做一个警察,而不想做政治打手。 Kolokoltsev succeeded a career political policeman, the former KGB officer Rashid Nurgaliev, and he was greeted with relief and enthusiasm within the MVD. Moving another political policeman into his office would likely be unpopular with the rank and file, as well as being a depressing symbol of a newly-repressive turn from the Kremlin. 科洛科利采夫的前任是一位职业政治警察,前KGB特工拉希德·努尔加利耶夫。科洛科利采夫上任时,内务部可是松了口气,热烈欢迎。这个位置上要是再来一个政治警察很可能不太受欢迎,无论是他的资历,还是作为克里姆林宫新压制转向的可悲象征。 However, unless and until the Kremlin feels it needs a tougher hand at the MVD, Zolotov’s greatest value appears to be precisely in his role as the bogeyman. Simply by airing the notion of his ascension, with all that could imply, is a way of signaling both that the Kremlin could empower much more fearsome agents and also that things are by no means as bad as they could be. 不过,除非且直到克里姆林宫当真觉得内务部需要一位更强硬的人手,否则佐罗托夫的更大价值恐怕恰恰在于扮演好他的唬人怪兽角色。只要散布一下他将升职的想法,这一猜想的隐含信息就能起到双重信号作用:既表明克里姆林宫可能把权力交给更为可怕的特工,同时也表明事情远没有到可能的最坏情况。 The Emperor’s New Armor 皇帝的新盔甲 So welcome to the theatre of tyranny. A style of governance which actively encourages the appearance of being tougher and nastier than it really is, and at the same time enthusiastically telegraphs that it could be tougher and nastier still. Behind all this posturing, after all, is a regime which can at best be considered a ‘soft’ or maybe ‘parsimonious’ authoritarianism. 所以,欢迎观看暴政大戏。这种统治风格积极鼓励自己表现得比实际上更为强硬、更为卑鄙,同时还狂热地宣扬自己可以再强硬一些、再卑鄙一些。不过,在所有这类装腔作势背后站着的,却是一个最多只能被视作“软”专制或“吝啬”专制的政权。 This is not in any way to whitewash or condone what it does, which ranges from targeted political trials all the way through to condoning a climate in which journalists dissidents and other inconveniences may be harassed, attacked even killed. We need to recognize the very real cases of abuses of individual rights and political repression. 这么说绝非是要洗白或原谅它的所作所为——从打击目标明确的政治审判,到纵容那些骚扰、攻击甚至杀害异议记者和其他刺头的罪行,等一系列行径。我们要意识到,俄罗斯存在着个人权利遭受损害和政治压迫的真实情形。 However, in many ways and compared with many countries (including, arguably, the West’s uncomfortable NATO ally, Turkey), it is much less profligately abusive than it might be. Its strategy is to deter resistance by making it appear futile and dangerous. 不过,从许多方面看,并与许多其他国家(包括可以说是西方在北约内的尴尬盟国土耳其)相比,俄罗斯的残暴并没有到肆无忌惮的地步,而它本有能力做到这一点。它的战略就是要威慑反抗,让反抗看起来危险无比、看起来徒劳无功。 In this respect, there is a striking parallel between the Kremlin’s foreign and domestic policy. Both depend on making Russia appear not only stronger than it is, but more ruthless, unpredictable and downright crazy, so it seems easier to accommodate than challenge it. 就此而言,克里姆林宫的对外与对内政策之间存在一个惊人的相似之处。两者都依赖于一个办法:不仅要把俄罗斯塑造得比实际更为强悍,而且要塑造得更为残暴、更反复无常、更疯狂透顶,从而使得与之通融协调显得比与之对抗挑战要容易。 And it works really well. Until the day that it meets someone more ruthless, unpredictable and crazy (whether Islamic State or Erdogan) or someone happens to wonder just how strong the emperor’s new armor really is. 这个办法效果很不错。除非有一天它撞上了一个更残暴、更无常并且更疯狂的家伙(不管是伊斯兰国还是埃尔多安),或者撞上了一个碰巧想要弄清皇帝的这套新铠甲到底有多牢靠的家伙。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]保守派选民喜欢何种嗓音?

Republicans prefer politicians with deep voices
共和党选民更青睐声音低沉的政治家

作者:Aarhus University @ 2015-11-24
译者:Luis Rightcon(@Rightcon)
校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
来源:EurekAlert,http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-11/au-rpp112415.php

A deep voice and a square jaw are important assets for conservative politicians. For politicians on the liberal side, it’s more important to have gentle features. That’s the conclusion of two recent scientific articles from Aarhus University. Th(more...)

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Republicans prefer politicians with deep voices 共和党选民更青睐声音低沉的政治家 作者:Aarhus University @ 2015-11-24 译者:Luis Rightcon(@Rightcon) 校对:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 来源:EurekAlert,http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-11/au-rpp112415.php A deep voice and a square jaw are important assets for conservative politicians. For politicians on the liberal side, it's more important to have gentle features. That's the conclusion of two recent scientific articles from Aarhus University. The implication is not only that physical features have a larger impact on voter preferences than previously thought but also that different physical features appeal to different voter segments. 拥有低沉嗓音和方形下巴对于保守派政客而言是非常重要的资产。而对于自由派政客,拥有相对柔和的特性则更为重要。这是最近两篇出自奥尔胡斯大学的科学论文所得出的结论,这两篇文章不仅表明身体特征对选民倾向的影响比以前所认为的要更大,而且指出不同的身体特征会吸引不同的选民群体。 The results run counter to the ideal that voters in democratic societies make their decisions after carefully weighing the pros and cons of the political programs put forward by the various parties, according to Lasse Laustsen and Michael Bang Petersen from the university's Department of Political Science, who carried out the research. 这项研究是由奥尔胡斯大学政治科学系的Lasse Laustsen和Michael Bang Petersen做的,研究所得出的结果与那种认为民主社会选民会在仔细权衡各政党所推行的政治纲领的利弊之后再做出选择的设想恰好背道而驰。 "A deep tone of voice appeals to conservative voters. More generally, conservative voters seem to have a preference for politicians who look physically strong and masculine, while liberal voters prefer those who have less dominant features and seem more accommodating, perhaps even slightly feminine," said Laustsen. Laustsen指出:“低沉的嗓音会吸引保守派选民。更一般的来说,保守派选民似乎倾向于外表看上去更强壮,更阳刚的政客,而自由派选民则更喜欢不那么强势而且更随和,甚至可能有点轻微女性化的政客。” The new studies form an example of how political scientists can achieve a deeper understanding of political behavior by using a broader variety of research tools. The approach is increasingly adopted by political scientists all over the world, including John Hibbing, a professor of political science at University of Nebraska-Lincoln. 这一使用多种研究工具的新研究为政治学家树立了深入理解政治行为的典范。全世界的政治学家正在逐步采用这种研究方式,内布拉斯加-林肯大学政治学教授John Hibbing就是其中之一。 "It's a fairly limited niche, but it's growing. What Laustsen and Petersen do is both exciting and important. Some people may be uncomfortable knowing that our preferences are determined by forces that we don't entirely understand. But of course, as scientists we still have to deal with it," said Hibbing, who didn't take part in the Laustsen and Petersen's research. “这是个相当有限的细分领域,但是在不断发展壮大。Laustsen和Petersen的工作既令人兴奋又非常重要。我们的(政治)倾向被我们没有完全理解的力量所决定,这一点会令许多人感到不舒服。但是我们作为科学家当然还是要应对它。”Hibbing说。Hibbing本人没有参与Laustsen和Petersen的研究。 One of the articles is based on data from US politics and demonstrates that Republican voters are more likely than voters from the Democratic camp to vote for politicians with deep voices. To understand why this is, you have to dig a little deeper, according to Laustsen. Republican voters prefer strong politicians - or politicians whose deep voices make them sound like they are strong - because they believe the world is a more dangerous and menacing place than Democratic voters, he said. 其中一篇论文基于美国政治的数据,证明了共和党选民较之民主党阵营选民更倾向于选择嗓音低沉的政客。在Laustsen看来,要理解其中原因,需要进一步挖掘这项事实。他认为共和党选民倾向于身体强壮的政客,或者嗓音低沉的政客——嗓音低沉使得他们听起来比较强壮——是因为共和党选民相信真实世界要比民主党选民所认为的更加险恶。 "If you hold up images of objects that people consider dangerous or unpleasant, for example of large spiders, and then measure the production of sweat from people's fingertips (skin conductance response), you get an indication of spontaneous physical reaction. In these cases, conservative voters react more strongly than liberal ones. This could indicate a large visceral difference in the way these voter groups perceive the world," Laustsen said. Laustsen说:“如果你举起人们觉得危险或者令人不适的物体图片,比如说巨型蜘蛛,然后测试观察者指尖的出汗量(皮电反应),你会看到身体自发的应激反应。在这类试验中,保守派选民比自由派选民的反应更为激烈。这可能表明这些选民群体在认知世界的层面上有着很大的本能上的差别。” Laustsen and Petersen's research proceeds from the observations that in order to understand the behavior of modern humans, you need to look into the evolutionary history that has shaped the psychology producing this behavior. 为了理解现代人类的行为,必须从产生行为的心理着手,而人类的进化史塑造了自身的心理。基于这样的看法,Laustsen和Petersen的研究就由此入手。 In prehistoric times when the ancestors of modern humans were roaming the East-African savannah in small groups, it made sense to support the strongest members of the tribe when confronted with danger. Psychological mechanisms which 30,000 years ago saved our ancestors from being devoured by saber-toothed tigers and other fierce animals continue to be at work today, explaining, among other things, why people vote as they do along the left-right continuum. 史前时代,现代人类的祖先组成许多小群体漫游在东非稀树大草原上。这样,在遇上危险时支持群体里的最强壮者就显得尤为重要。三万年前的心理机制保护了我们的祖先不被剑齿虎和许多其他猛兽吞噬殆尽,而同样的心理机制至今仍在发挥作用。这就能解释许多事情,包括为什么人类在投票时(所表现出的政治倾向)会沿从左到右的光谱排列。 "There are evolutionarily important reasons for the structure of our psychology. Our ancestors had to make a decision about which leader to follow, and it was crucial for their survival and reproduction that they picked the right one. As a species we are pre-programmed to think in a certain way about who we would like to be in charge. This affects choices that we make even today," said Petersen. “我们的心理结构是具有进化意义上的重大缘由的。我们祖先必须就领袖人选作出抉择,选择正确的人选对于他们的生存和繁衍极其重要。作为一个物种,我们被预先设定好以某种特定方式来考虑谁才是我们中意的领导者。这甚至一直在影响今天我们所作出的决定。”Petersen说。 Is this knowledge useful for the politicians? For example, would it be helpful for conservative politicians to tone down their dominant, masculine personality traits in hopes of snatching voters further to the left who tend to find less dominant features more attractive? 这项知识对政客有用吗?举例来说,保守派政客是否可以通过软化他们的强势个性特征来吸引更加左翼、更加青睐没有太多强势特征的人选的选民? "Democrats are often seen as empathic, compassionate types. Republicans, by contrast, are often considered as strong leaders with a moral compass. This kind of subjective views may have real importance in cases where a Republican candidate is seen as more empathic than his Democratic opponent and trespasses into his territory. Perhaps he can gain some votes there," he said. Petersen指出:“民主党人往往被视为富于同情怜悯的类型。与之相对,共和党人往往被认为是具有道德模范特性的强大领袖。这样的主观印象也许会在某些场合发挥重大作用,比如在一个共和党候选人比他的民主党对手显得更具有同情心,侵入了后者的基本盘的情况下,这位共和党候选人将会挣来一些(偏左翼的)选票。” Can the voters use these new insights for anything? It's always better to be aware of what causes you to have the preferences you have. But the roots of our likes and dislikes are buried so deep in the subconscious that the two authors doubt there is very much to do about them. 选民们能通过这些新洞见干些什么呢?了解到你的倾向由何而来当然是很不错的。但是我们喜恶的根源是如此深埋在潜意识中,以至于两位作者不觉得我们能在此有什么作为。 "We can't necessarily do very much to control this. Some American research indicates that participants in lab tests are able to determine which of two unknown candidates they like more after having been exposed to images of them for less than 0.1 second. This suggests that these processes are really fast and subconscious. So I think it's hard to rein in," Laustsen said. Laustsen说“我们不一定能够控制这个。一些来自美国的研究指出,实验室测试的参与者们会在看到两位陌生候选人图片的0.1秒之内决定出他们的偏好。这显示了做出选择的过程非常快速,且深深扎根于潜意识中。所以我认为很难去驾驭这一过程。” (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]社会心理学界政治单极化

It’s finally out–The big review paper on the lack of political diversity in social psychology
终于来啦:关于社会心理学缺乏政治多元性的大型综述论文

作者:Jonathan Haidt @ 2015-9-14
译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:龟海海
来源:Heterodox Academy,http://heterodoxacademy.org/2015/09/14/bbs-paper-on-lack-of-political-diversity/

Heterodox Academy has its origins in a collaborative effort by five social psychologists and a sociologist to study a problem that has long been noted in psychology: nearly everyone in the field is on the left, politically. We have been working together since 2011 to write a paper explaining how this situation came about, how it reduces the quality of science published in social psychology, and what can be done to improve the science. (Note that none of us self-identifies as conservative.)  In the process we discovered the work of the other scholars in other fields who joined with us to create this site.

“异端学院”发端于五位社会心理学家和一位社会学家对心理学领域早被注意到的一个问题的合作研究:该领域中几乎所有人都是政治上的左派。自2011年始,我们就一直在共同写作一篇论文,解释这一现象是如何产生的、它如何降低了社会心理学领域所发表的科学文章的质量,以及为改进这一科学可以做些什么。(注意我们之中没人自认为是保守派)在此过程中,我们发现了其他一些学者在其它领域的研究成果,他们加入了我们的队伍,一起创建了这个网站。

Our paper is finally published this week! A preprint of the manuscript was posted last year, but now we have the final typeset version, plus the 33 commentaries. Here is a link to the PDF of the final manuscript, on the website of Behavioral and Brain Sciences. (Thanks to Paul Bloom for his wise and patient editorship.) Here’s a link to a page linking to HTML versions of all the documents. But because our article is long (13 dense pages) and the 33 commentaries are longer (another 31 pages) — and then there’s our response (another 7 pages) — we recognize that few people will ever read the whole package.

我们的论文终于在本周出版啦!我们去年曾贴出原稿的预印本,但现在我们已经有了排版稿,外加33条评论。以下是《行为与脑科学》杂志网站上最终稿的PDF版链接(感谢Paul Bloom明确且细致的编辑工作。)以下则是所有文档的HTML版的网页链接。不过,由于我们的文章很长(密密麻麻13页),那33条评论更长(加31页)——还有我们的回应(再加7页)——我们认为没什么人会读完全部材料。

For all these reasons, we offer here a “CliffsNotes” version, giving the basics of our argument using excerpts copied directly from the paper.  [Occasional comments from me–Jonathan Haidt–are interspersed in brackets] Please also see this post by Lee Jussim, explaining why we think this problem is so serious. In a later post Jarret Crawford summarizes the 33 commentaries on our article.

出于以上理由,我们现在提供一份“克里夫笔记”【导读荟萃】版,通过对论文的直接复制摘录,给出我们的论证要点。[间或在括号中加入了由我(Jonathan Haidt)写的评论]。此外,还请阅读Lee Jussim发布的这个帖子,他解释了我们为何认为这个问题很严重。在之后的一片帖子中,Jarret Crawford总结了33条关于我们文章的评论。

CITATION: Duarte, J. L., Crawford, J. T., Stern, C., Haidt, J., Jussim, L., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015). Political diversity will improve social psychological science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 38, 1-13.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X14000430[and try this link, with no paywall, or this link to the preprint version]

引用:Duarte, J. L., Crawford, J. T., Stern, C., Haidt, J., Jussim, L., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015). 政治多样性将会改善社会心理科学。《行为和脑科学》, 38, 1-13.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X14000430[另外,试试这个链接,没有付费墙,或者这个预印本]

ABSTRACT
摘要

Psychologists have demonstrated the value of diversity – particularly diversity of viewpoints – for enhancing creativity, discovery, and problem solving. But one key type of viewpoint diversity is lacking in academic psychology in general and social psychology in particular: political diversity.

心理学家已向我们展示,多元性——特别是视角的多元性——对于提高创造力、促进新发现和解决问题的价值。但是,一般而言在学院心理学以及特别而言在社会心理学领域,却缺乏一种关键形式的视角多元性:政治多元性。

This article reviews the available evidence and finds support for four claims: (1) Academic psychology once had considerable political diversity, but has lost nearly all of it in the last 50 years.

本文考察了可见的证据,并为下列四个论断提供了支撑:(1)学院心理学过去曾有过相当大的政治多元性,但在过去50年间几乎已将其丧失殆尽。

(2) This lack of political diversity can undermine the validity of social psychological science via mechanisms such as the embedding of liberal values into research questions and methods, steering researchers away from important but politically unpalatable research topics, and producing conclusions that mischaracterize liberals and conservatives alike.

(2)这种政治多元性的缺乏,可能破坏社会心理科学的有效性,破坏可能通过这样一些机制发生:将自由派价值观预置于研究问题和方法中,引导研究者避开事关重大但在政治上不受待见的研究课题,并得出对自由派抑或保守派特征的错误描绘。

(3) Increased political diversity would improve social psychological (more...)

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It’s finally out–The big review paper on the lack of political diversity in social psychology 终于来啦:关于社会心理学缺乏政治多元性的大型综述论文 作者:Jonathan Haidt @ 2015-9-14 译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 校对:龟海海 来源:Heterodox Academy,http://heterodoxacademy.org/2015/09/14/bbs-paper-on-lack-of-political-diversity/ Heterodox Academy has its origins in a collaborative effort by five social psychologists and a sociologist to study a problem that has long been noted in psychology: nearly everyone in the field is on the left, politically. We have been working together since 2011 to write a paper explaining how this situation came about, how it reduces the quality of science published in social psychology, and what can be done to improve the science. (Note that none of us self-identifies as conservative.)  In the process we discovered the work of the other scholars in other fields who joined with us to create this site. “异端学院”发端于五位社会心理学家和一位社会学家对心理学领域早被注意到的一个问题的合作研究:该领域中几乎所有人都是政治上的左派。自2011年始,我们就一直在共同写作一篇论文,解释这一现象是如何产生的、它如何降低了社会心理学领域所发表的科学文章的质量,以及为改进这一科学可以做些什么。(注意我们之中没人自认为是保守派)在此过程中,我们发现了其他一些学者在其它领域的研究成果,他们加入了我们的队伍,一起创建了这个网站。 Our paper is finally published this week! A preprint of the manuscript was posted last year, but now we have the final typeset version, plus the 33 commentaries. Here is a link to the PDF of the final manuscript, on the website of Behavioral and Brain Sciences. (Thanks to Paul Bloom for his wise and patient editorship.) Here’s a link to a page linking to HTML versions of all the documents. But because our article is long (13 dense pages) and the 33 commentaries are longer (another 31 pages) — and then there’s our response (another 7 pages) — we recognize that few people will ever read the whole package. 我们的论文终于在本周出版啦!我们去年曾贴出原稿的预印本,但现在我们已经有了排版稿,外加33条评论。以下是《行为与脑科学》杂志网站上最终稿的PDF版链接(感谢Paul Bloom明确且细致的编辑工作。)以下则是所有文档的HTML版的网页链接。不过,由于我们的文章很长(密密麻麻13页),那33条评论更长(加31页)——还有我们的回应(再加7页)——我们认为没什么人会读完全部材料。 For all these reasons, we offer here a “CliffsNotes” version, giving the basics of our argument using excerpts copied directly from the paper.  [Occasional comments from me–Jonathan Haidt–are interspersed in brackets] Please also see this post by Lee Jussim, explaining why we think this problem is so serious. In a later post Jarret Crawford summarizes the 33 commentaries on our article. 出于以上理由,我们现在提供一份“克里夫笔记”【导读荟萃】版,通过对论文的直接复制摘录,给出我们的论证要点。[间或在括号中加入了由我(Jonathan Haidt)写的评论]。此外,还请阅读Lee Jussim发布的这个帖子,他解释了我们为何认为这个问题很严重。在之后的一片帖子中,Jarret Crawford总结了33条关于我们文章的评论。 CITATION: Duarte, J. L., Crawford, J. T., Stern, C., Haidt, J., Jussim, L., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015). Political diversity will improve social psychological science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 38, 1-13.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X14000430[and try this link, with no paywall, or this link to the preprint version] 引用:Duarte, J. L., Crawford, J. T., Stern, C., Haidt, J., Jussim, L., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015). 政治多样性将会改善社会心理科学。《行为和脑科学》, 38, 1-13.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X14000430[另外,试试这个链接,没有付费墙,或者这个预印本] ABSTRACT 摘要 Psychologists have demonstrated the value of diversity – particularly diversity of viewpoints – for enhancing creativity, discovery, and problem solving. But one key type of viewpoint diversity is lacking in academic psychology in general and social psychology in particular: political diversity. 心理学家已向我们展示,多元性——特别是视角的多元性——对于提高创造力、促进新发现和解决问题的价值。但是,一般而言在学院心理学以及特别而言在社会心理学领域,却缺乏一种关键形式的视角多元性:政治多元性。 This article reviews the available evidence and finds support for four claims: (1) Academic psychology once had considerable political diversity, but has lost nearly all of it in the last 50 years. 本文考察了可见的证据,并为下列四个论断提供了支撑:(1)学院心理学过去曾有过相当大的政治多元性,但在过去50年间几乎已将其丧失殆尽。 (2) This lack of political diversity can undermine the validity of social psychological science via mechanisms such as the embedding of liberal values into research questions and methods, steering researchers away from important but politically unpalatable research topics, and producing conclusions that mischaracterize liberals and conservatives alike. (2)这种政治多元性的缺乏,可能破坏社会心理科学的有效性,破坏可能通过这样一些机制发生:将自由派价值观预置于研究问题和方法中,引导研究者避开事关重大但在政治上不受待见的研究课题,并得出对自由派抑或保守派特征的错误描绘。 (3) Increased political diversity would improve social psychological science by reducing the impact of bias mechanisms such as confirmation bias, and by empowering dissenting minorities to improve the quality of the majority’s thinking. (3)增加政治多元性,能够改善社会心理科学,其途径包括降低偏见机制如确认偏误的影响,让持异议的少数派有机会改进多数派的思考质量。 (4) The underrepresentation of non-liberals in social psychology is most likely due to a combination of self-selection, hostile climate, and discrimination. We close with recommendations for increasing political diversity in social psychology. (4)社会心理学中非自由派的人数不足,最有可能是自我选择、敌对气氛以及歧视等因素共同作用的结果。文章结尾我们就增进社会心理学中政治多元化提出了一些建议。

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1. Introduction 1. 导论 In the last few years, social psychology has faced a series of challenges to the validity of its research, including a few high-profile replication failures, a handful of fraud cases, and several articles on questionable research practices and inflated effect sizes… In this article, we suggest that one largely overlooked cause of failure is a lack of political diversity. We review evidence suggesting that political diversity and dissent would improve the reliability and validity of social psychological science… 过去数年间,社会心理学在其研究有效性上面临一系列挑战,包括一些众人瞩目的试验重复失败,一些造假事件,还有一些文章用的是有问题的研究操作和夸大的效应量……我们在本文中表明,此种失败的一个原因受到广泛忽视,即缺乏政治多元性。我们考察了相关证据,表明政治多元性和异议能够改进社会心理科学的可靠性和有效性…… We focus on conservatives as an underrepresented group because the data on the prevalence in psychology of different ideological groups is best for the liberal-conservative contrast – and the departure from the proportion of liberals and conservatives in the U.S. population is so dramatic. However, we argue that the field needs more non-liberals however they specifically self-identify (e.g., libertarian, moderate)… 我们将保守派这个代表性不足的群体作为关注焦点,因为在心理学中,不同意识形态群体的流行程度数据最适合进行自由派-保守派对比,也因为与全美人口的自由派与保守派占比相比,心理学领域偏差极为惊人。不过,我们论证道,这个领域需要更多非自由派,无论他们的自我认同具体为何(如自由意志主义者、温和派等)…… The lack of political diversity is not a threat to the validity of specific studies in many and perhaps most areas of research in social psychology. The lack of diversity causes problems for the scientific process primarily in areas related to the political concerns of the Left – areas such as race, gender, stereotyping, environmentalism, power, and inequality – as well as in areas where conservatives themselves are studied, such as in moral and political psychology. 多元政治的缺乏对某些特定领域(或许是大多数社会心理学领域)的研究有效性,并不构成威胁。多元政治的缺失造成问题的主要是科研过程中涉及那些跟左派的政治关怀有关的领域——如种族、性别、刻板印象、环保主义、权力和不平等,以及在那些研究对象就包括了保守派的领域——如道德和政治心理学。

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2. Psychology is less politically diverse than ever 2. 心理学的政治多元性之少史无前例 [In this section we review all available information on the political party identification of psychologists, as well as their liberal-conservative self descriptions. The graph below says it all. Whichever of those two measures you use, you find a big change after 1990. Before the 1990s, academic psychology only LEANED left. Liberals and Democrats outnumbered Conservatives and Republican by 4 to 1 or less. But as the “greatest generation” retired in the 1990s and was replaced by baby boomers, the ratio skyrocketed to something more like 12 to 1. In just 20 years. Few psychologists realize just how quickly or completely the field has become a political monoculture. This graph took us by surprise too.] [本部分我们就心理学家的政治党派认同以及他们对属于自由派还是保守派的自我描述,回顾所有可以找到的信息。下列图表说明了一切。不论你采用两种测量方法中的哪一种,你都能发现1990年后发生了一个重大变化。1990年代以前,学院心理学只是倾向左派。自由派和民主党比保守派和共和党多,比率为4:1及以下。但到了1990年代,“最伟大的一代”退休【译注:指1920年代生人,因其经历大萧条、二战、战后重建而与美国同铸辉煌而得此名】,“婴儿潮一代”取而代之【译注:指战后至1960年代中期生人】,这一比率飙升到12:1以上的程度。只用了20年。极少有心理学家意识到这一领域转变为一种政治单一栽培的快速程度和彻底程度。这个图标也令我们大吃一惊。] diversity-graph Figure 1. The political party and ideological sympathies of academic psychologists have shifted leftward over time. Circles show ratios of self-reports of liberal vs. conservative. Diamonds show ratios of self-reports of party preference or voting (Democrat vs. Republican). Data for 1924–60 is reported in McClintock et al. (1965). Open diamonds are participants’ recollections of whom they voted for; gray diamonds are self-reported party identification at time of the survey. Data for 1999 is reported in Rothman et al. (2005). Data from 2006 is reported in Gross and Simmons (2007). The right-most circle is from Inbar and Lammers (2012) and is the ratio of selfidentified liberal/conservative social psychologists. 图1. 学院心理学家的政治党派和意识形态倾向已经随时间流逝而趋向左转。圆形表示自陈自由派的与自陈保守派的比率。菱形则表示自陈的政党偏好或投票记录(民主党vs.共和党)的比率。1924-60年数据据McClintock 等(1965)。空心菱形是参与者对投票给谁的回忆;灰色菱形则是被调查时自陈的政党身份。1999年的数据据Rothman等(2005)。2006年的数据据Gross和 Simmons (2007)。最右边的圆形则来自Inbar和Lammers(2012),指的是自认自由派和自认保守派的社会心理学家之比。

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3. Three ways that the lack of diversity undermines social psychology 3. 多元性的缺乏对社会心理学造成破坏的三种方式 Might a shared moral-historical narrative [the “liberal progress” narrative described by sociologist Christian Smith] in a politically homogeneous field undermine the self-correction processes on which good science depends? We think so, and present three risk points— three ways in which political homogeneity can threaten the validity of social psychological science—and examples from the extant literature illustrating each point. 在一个政治同质化的领域内,一种共享的道德-历史叙事(社会学家Christian Smith所描绘的那种“自由进步”叙事),会破坏良好科学所赖以存在的自我纠正过程吗?我们认为会,并提出了三个风险点——政治同质性能够威胁社会心理科学有效性的三种方式,针对每一点,我们都从现存文献中提出例证来作了说明。 3.1. Risk point 1: Liberal values and assumptions can become embedded into theory and method 3.1. 风险点之一:自由派价值观和假设可能预装到理论和方法之中 The embedding of values occurs when value statements or ideological claims are wrongly treated as objective truth, and observed deviation from that truth is treated as error. 当价值陈述或意识形态主张被错误地当成客观真理对待时,或者与这一真理有出入的现象被观测到,却被当成错误对待时,价值观的预装就发生了。 [Example:] and McBride (2007) found that: 1) people high in social dominance orientation (SDO) were more likely to make unethical decisions, 2) people high in right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) were more likely to go along with the unethical decisions of leaders, and 3) dyads with high SDO leaders and high RWA followers made more unethical decisions than dyads with alternative arrangements (e.g., low SDO—low RWA dyads). [例证:]Son Hing, Bobocel, Zanna和 McBride(2007)发现:1)社会支配倾向(SDO)高的人更可能作出不道德的决定,2)右翼权威主义(RWA)程度高的人更可能遵从领导人作出的不道德决定,以及3)高SDO的领导人与高RWA的追随者这一组合作出的不道德决定比其它形式的排列组合(如低SDO和低RWA组合)要多。 Yet consider the decisions they defined as unethical: not formally taking a female colleague’s side in her sexual harassment complaint against her subordinate (given little information about the case), and a worker placing the well-being of his or her company above unspecified harms to the environment attributed to the company’s operations. Liberal values of feminism and environmentalism were embedded directly into the operationalization of ethics, even to the extent that participants were expected to endorse those values in vignettes that lacked the information one would need to make a considered judgment. 不过,看看被他们界定为不道德的决定:在女性同事对其下属提出性骚扰投诉时不正式站在她的一边(几乎没有任何案件相关信息),工人将他或她所属公司的利益置于未明确说明的环境损害之上(这种损害被归罪于该公司的运营)。自由派的女性主义和环保主义价值取向被直接预装进了伦理概念的执行之中,甚至到了这种程度:在某个场景下缺乏信息的个体不得不做出审慎判断,仍指望参与者支持这些价值。 The appearance of certain words that imply pernicious motives (e.g., deny, legitimize, rationalize, justify, defend, trivialize) may be particularly indicative of research tainted by embedded values. 对某些特定词汇的使用,暗中指涉险恶的动机(如拒斥、合法化、合理化、正当化、维护、琐碎化等)。出现这些词汇,可能就具有特别的标志性,表明研究已被预装的价值观污染。 3.2. Risk point 2: Researchers may concentrate on topics that validate the liberal progress narrative and avoid topics that contest that narrative 3.2 风险点之二:研究者可能全神关注那些能够证实自由进步叙事的论题,避开那些对这一叙事构成质疑的论题 Since the enlightenment, scientists have thought of themselves as spreading light and pushing back the darkness. The metaphor is apt, but in a politically homogeneous field, a larger-than-optimal number of scientists shine their flashlights on ideologically important regions of the terrain. Doing so leaves many areas unexplored. Even worse, some areas become walled off, and inquisitive researchers risk ostracism if they venture in. 自启蒙运动以来,科学家们一直认为自己所做的,乃是拒绝黑暗、传播光明的事业。这个暗喻是恰当的,不过,在一个政治同质化的地界,把灯光照向境内那些在意识形态上很重要的领域的科学家数目实在是多得过分。这么做会令许多领域无人探索。更糟糕的是,有些领域还会被高墙围起来,任何求知好问的研究者胆敢冒险进入,就有被放逐的风险。 [Example:] Stereotype accuracy. Since the 1930s, social psychologists have been proclaiming the inaccuracy of social stereotypes, despite lacking evidence of such inaccuracy. Evidence has seemed unnecessary because stereotypes have been, in effect, stereotyped as inherently nasty and inaccurate (see Jussim, 2012a for a review). [例证:]刻板印象的准确性。自1930年代起,社会心理学家一直声称,社会刻板印象是不准确的,尽管他们拿不出相关证据。此类证据一直被视为毫无必要,因为刻板印象本身事实上已经被刻板印象化了,成了一种本质上恶劣且不准确的事物(评论见Jussim, 2012a)。 Some group stereotypes are indeed hopelessly crude and untestable. But some may rest on valid empiricism—and represent subjective estimates of population characteristics (e.g. the proportion of people who drop out of high school, are victims of crime, or endorse policies that support women at work, see Jussim, 2012a, Ryan, 2002 for reviews). 某些群体刻板印象确实无可救药地生硬粗糙、不可验证。但还有一些,则可能确实建立在有效的经验主义基础之上——并体现了对于人群特征的主观估计(比如高中辍学的人口比例、罪案受害者的人口比例、支持职业女性的政策的支持者比例等,评论见Jussim, 2012a和Ryan,2002)。 In this context, it is not surprising that the rigorous empirical study of the accuracy of factual stereotypes was initiated by one of the very few self-avowed conservatives in social psychology—Clark McCauley (McCauley & Stitt, 1978). Since then, dozens of studies by independent researchers have yielded evidence that stereotype accuracy (of all sorts of stereotypes) is one of the most robust effects in all of social psychology (Jussim, 2012a). 在这种氛围中,毫不稀奇,关于有事实基础的刻板印象之准确性,最严谨的经验研究是由社会心理学领域极少见的自陈保守派之一——Clark McCauley开创的(McCauley和Stitt, 1978)。自那以后,独立研究者的数十种研究已经得出证据,在所有社会心理学成果中,(关于所有种类的刻板印象的)刻板印象准确性之说乃是最为有力的之一(Jussim, 2012a)。 Here is a clear example of the value of political diversity: a conservative social psychologist asked a question nobody else thought (or dared) to ask, and found results that continue to make many social psychologists uncomfortable. McCauley’s willingness to put the assumption of stereotype inaccuracy to an empirical test led to the correction of one of social psychology’s most longstanding errors. 这是政治多元性之价值的清楚一例:一个保守派社会心理学家追问了一个别人都没想过(或敢于)去问的问题,并得出了一个让许多社会心理学家现在仍一直感到不舒服的结论。McCauley决心对刻板印象不准确这一假设进行经验验证,这就导致了对于社会心理学中最长寿错误之一的纠正。 3.3. Risk point 3: Negative attitudes regarding conservatives can produce a psychological science that mischaracterizes their traits and attributes 3.3 风险点之三:对于保守派的负面看法可能导致心理科学错误地描绘保守派的特征和性质 A long-standing view in social-political psychology is that the right is more dogmatic and intolerant of ambiguity than the left, a view Tetlock (1983) dubbed the rigidity-of-the-right hypothesis…. But had social psychologists studied a broad enough range of situations to justify these broad conclusions? Recent evidence suggests not. 社会—政治心理学中存在已久的一个看法是,右派比左派更为教条,更不能容忍模棱两可。Tetlock(1983)将这种看法叫作“右派的死板”假说……但是,社会心理学家为了证明这种一般性的结论,是否研究过范围足够广泛的情形?近来的证据显示:并非如此。 The ideologically objectionable premise model (IOPM; Crawford, 2012) posits that people on the political left and right are equally likely to approach political judgments with their ideological blinders on. That said, they will only do so when the premise of a political judgment is ideologically acceptable. If it’s objectionable, any preferences for one group over another will be short-circuited, and biases won’t emerge. 据“意识形态争议性前提模型”(IOPM; Crawford, 2012)推断,政治上的左派和右派戴着意识形态眼罩形成政治判断的可能性是一样大的。当然,这只会发生于政治判断的前提在意识形态上可以接受的情况下。如果这一前提是可争议的,那么偏好其中任意一个群体都会引起直接短路,偏见就不会出现。 The IOPM thus allows for biases to emerge only among liberals, only among conservatives, or among both liberals and conservatives, depending on the situation. For example, reinterpreting Altemeyer’s mandatory school prayer results, Crawford (2012) argued that for people low in RWA who value individual freedom and autonomy, mandatory school prayer is objectionable; thus, the very nature of the judgment should shut off any biases in favor of one target over the other. 由此,随着情况的不同,IOPM模型可让偏见仅出现于自由派中,或仅出现于保守派中,或同时出现于自由派和保守派中。比如,Crawford(2012)在重新解释Altemeyer的强制性学校祷告数据时论证到,对于右翼权威主义(RWA)程度低、看重个体自由与自主的人,强制性学校祷告是可争议的;因此,这一判断的性质本身会将任何重此轻彼的偏见排斥在外。 However, for people high in RWA who value society-wide conformity to traditional morals and values, mandating school prayer is acceptable; this acceptable premise then allows for people high in RWA to express a bias in favor of Christian over Muslim school prayer. 然而,对于RWA程度高、看重全社会对传统道德和价值观的遵从的人,强制性学校祷告是可以接受的;于是,这种可接受的前提就会让RWA程度高的人表达出重基督教校园祈祷者、轻穆斯林校园祈祷者的偏见。 Crawford (2012, Study 1) replaced mandatory prayer with voluntary prayer, which would be acceptable to both people high and low in RWA. In line with the IOPM, people high in RWA were still biased in favor of Christian over Muslim prayer, while people low in RWA now showed a bias in favor of Muslim over Christian voluntary prayer. Hypocrisy is therefore not necessarily a special province of the right. Crawford(2012,研究1)用自愿祈祷者代替强制祈祷者,于是前提变成了对于RWA程度高和低的两种人都可以接受。与IOPM模型预测一致,RWA程度高的人仍然存在重基督教祈祷者、轻穆斯林祈祷者的偏见,与此同时,RWA程度低的人现在表现出重穆斯林自愿祈祷者、轻基督教自愿祈祷者的偏见。因此,虚伪矫饰可不一定是右派的特殊地盘。 These example illustrate the threats to truth-seeking that emerge when members of a politically homogenous intellectual community are motivated to cast their perceived outgroup (i.e., the ones who violate the liberal progressive narrative) in a negative light. If there were more social psychologists who were motivated to question the design and interpretation of studies biased towards liberal values during peer review, or if there were more researchers running their own studies using different methods, social psychologists could be more confident in the validity of their characterizations of conservatives (and liberals). 这些例子说明,当一个政治同质化的知识群体的成员被鼓励用一种负面灯光去映照他们所理解的圈外人士(比如,冒犯自由进步叙事的人)时,追求真理的事业会受到何种威胁。如果在同行评审中,能有更多的社会心理学家被鼓励去质疑那些偏向自由派价值观的研究的设计和解释,如果能有更多的研究者采用不同的方法来进行他们自己的研究,社会心理学家就能对他们关于保守派(和自由派)的描绘的可信度拥有更多自信。

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4. Why political diversity is likely to improve social psychological science 4. 为什么政治多元性有可能改进社会心理科学 Diversity can be operationalized in many ways, including demographic diversity (e.g., ethnicity, race, and gender) and viewpoint diversity (e.g., variation in intellectual viewpoints or professional expertise). 将多元性这一概念变得可操作的方式很多,包括人口学多元化(如族群、种族和性别)和视角多元化(比如各种不同的知识视角或专业技能)。 Research in organizational psychology suggest that: a) the benefits of viewpoint diversity are more consistent and pronounced than those of demographic diversity (Menz, 2012; Williams & O’Reilly, 1998); and 组织心理学研究表明:a)视角多元化比人口学多元化的益处更为一贯、更为显著(Menz, 2012; Williams & O’Reilly, 1998);又 b) the benefits of viewpoint diversity are most pronounced when organizations are pursuing open-ended exploratory goals (e.g., scientific discovery) as opposed to exploitative goals (e.g., applying well-established routines to well-defined problems; Cannella, Park & Hu, 2008). b)与追求利用性目标(比如,在界定明确的问题上执行已良好确立的例行程序)的组织相比,在追求开放式的探索性目标(比如,科学发现)的组织中,视角多元化的益处最为显著(Cannella, Park & Hu, 2008)。 Viewpoint diversity may therefore be more valuable than demographic diversity if social psychology’s core goal is to produce broadly valid and generalizable conclusions. (Of course, demographic diversity can bring viewpoint diversity, but if it is viewpoint diversity that is wanted, then it may be more effective to pursue it directly.) 因此,如果社会心理学的核心目标在于得出广泛有效且可以一般化的结论,那么视角多元性似乎比人口学多元性更有价值。(当然,人口学多元性能带来视角多元性,但如果我们需要的正是视角多元性,那么直接追求它可能更为有效。) It is the lack of political viewpoint diversity that makes social psychology vulnerable to the three risks described in the previous section. Political diversity is likely to have a variety of positive effects by reducing the impact of two familiar mechanisms that we explore below: confirmation bias and groupthink/majority consensus. 正是政治视角多元性的缺乏,才使得社会心理学在前一部分描述的三大风险面前显得很脆弱。通过削弱我们下面将讨论的两个我们熟知的机制的影响,政治多元性很可能具有多种多样的积极功效:确认偏误和群体思维/多数一致。 4.1. Confirmation bias 4.1 确认偏误 People tend to search for evidence that will confirm their existing beliefs while also ignoring or downplaying disconfirming evidence. This confirmation bias (Nickerson, 1998) is widespread among both laypeople and scientists (Ioannidis, 2012). Confirmation bias can become even stronger when people confront questions that trigger moral emotions and concerns about group identity (Haidt, 2001; 2012). 人们更喜欢为他们已有的信念搜罗证据,同时无视或轻视与既有信念抵触的证据。这种确认偏误(Nickerson, 1998)在外行和科学家中都很常见(Ioannidis, 2012)。当人们面对的问题还能够引发对于群体认同的道德情绪和关怀时,确认偏误可能会变得更为强烈(Haidt, 2001; 2012)。 Further, group-polarization often exacerbates extremism in echo chambers (Lamm & Myers, 1978). [and note from the graph above that social psychology has become an echo chamber since the 1990s] 此外,群体的极化通常还会在回音室中加剧极端主义(Lamm & Myers, 1978)。[并且注意,前面的图表已经显示,社会心理学自1990年代起已经变成了一个回音室]。 Indeed, people are far better at identifying the flaws in other people’s evidence-gathering than in their own, especially if those other people have dissimilar beliefs (e.g., Mercier & Sperber, 2011; Sperber et al., 2010). 实在来说,人们在别人的证据搜集过程中找出错误,可比针对自己时要得心应手得多,特别是当别人具有不同的信念时(如见Mercier & Sperber, 2011; Sperber等, 2010)。 Although such processes may be beneficial for communities whose goal is social cohesion (e.g., a religious or activist movement), they can be devastating for scientific communities by leading to widely-accepted claims that reflect the scientific community’s blind spots more than they reflect justified scientific conclusions (see, e.g., the three risk points discussed previously). 对于目标在于社会团结的共同体(如一个宗教运动或激进运动)来说,这类事情也许是有益的,但是对于科学共同体来说,这将是毁灭性的。因为它们将会导致一些被广泛接受的论断产生,而这些论断更多反映的是科学共同体的盲点,而非科学上得到证明的结论(如见前文所论的三个风险点)。 The most obvious cure for this problem is to increase the viewpoint diversity of the field. Nobody has found a way to eradicate confirmation bias in individuals (Lilienfeld et al., 2009), but we can diversify the field to the point where individual viewpoint biases begin to cancel each other out. 对于这个问题,最显而易见的疗法就是增加该领域的视角多元性。从来没有人找到过在个体身上根除确认偏误的办法(Lilienfeld等, 2009),但我们可以不断增加一个领域的多元性,直到个体的视角偏见开始相互抵消。 4.2. Minority influence 4.2 众从 Minority influence research has focused on the processes by which minorities influence majority members’ (and thus the groups’) reasoning (e.g., Crano, 2012; Moscovici & Personnaz, 1980). Majorities influence decision-making by producing conformity pressure that creates cohesion and community, but they do little to enhance judgmental depth or quality (Crisp & Turner, 2011; Moscovici & Personnaz, 1980). They also risk creating the type of groupthink that has long been a target of criticism by social psychologists (e.g., Fiske, Harris, & Cuddy, 2004; Janis, 1972)…. 众从研究聚焦于一种过程:少数派影响多数成员(进而是整个群体)的论证(如见Crano, 2012; Moscovici & Personnaz, 1980)。多数派通过制造顺从压力影响决策,而这种压力能够创造凝聚力和共同体,但无益于提高决断的深度或质量(Crisp & Turner, 2011; Moscovici & Personnaz, 1980)。他们也导致群体思维的风险,而这被社会心理学家诟病已久(如见Fiske, Harris, & Cuddy, 2004; Janis, 1972)…… There is even evidence that politically diverse teams produce more creative solutions than do politically homogeneous teams on problems such as “how can a person of average talent achieve fame” and how to find funding for a partially-built church ineligible for bank loans (Triandis, Hall, & Ewen, 1965)…. 甚至有证据表明,即使是在“某个资质平平的人如何成名”以及怎样为一个烂尾的教堂筹集资金,取得银行贷款这样的问题上,政治上多元的团队也比政治同质的团队更能找到创造性的解决方案。 In sum, there are grounds for hypothesizing that increased political diversity would improve the quality of social psychological science because it would increase the degree of scientific dissent, especially, on such politicized issues as inequality versus equity, the psychological characteristics of liberals and conservatives, stereotypes, prejudice, and discrimination. Social psychologists have shown these effects in many settings; they could take advantage of them within their own ranks. 总之,政治多元性的增加有助于改善社会心理科学的质量,这一假设是有理有据的,因为它会增加科学分歧的程度。当我们面对的是诸如不平等与平等、自由派和保守派的心理特征、刻板印象、偏见和歧视等等政治化的议题时,情况尤其如此。社会心理学家已经针对许多场合说明过此类效应;他们可以在自己的队伍中好好对其加以利用。

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5. Why are there so few non-liberals in social psychology? 5. 为什么非自由派在社会心理学中难得一见? the evidence does not point to a single answer. To understand why conservatives are so vastly underrepresented in social psychology, we consider five explanations that have frequently been offered to account for a lack of diversity not just in social psychology, but in other contexts (e.g., the underrepresentation of women and ethnic minorities in STEM fields, e.g., Pinker, 2008). 证据表明,答案不止一个。为了理解为什么保守派在社会心理学中的人数如此不足,我们考虑了五种解释,这五种解释不仅在说明社会心理学中多元性的缺乏时,而且在其它学术文章中也经常被人提到(如在STEM领域内妇女和少数族裔的缺乏,如见Pinker, 2008)【译注:STEM为科学、技术、工程和数学四个学科的英文首字母缩写】。 5.1. Differences in ability 5.1. 能力差异 [Are conservatives simply less intelligent than liberals, and less able to obtain PhDs and faculty positions?] The evidence does not support this view… [published studies are mixed. Part of the complexity is that…] Social conservatism correlates with lower cognitive ability test scores, but economic conservatism correlates with higher scores (Iyer, Koleva, Graham, Ditto, & Haidt, 2012; Kemmelmeier 2008). [Libertarians are the political group with the highest IQ, yet they are underrepresented in the social sciences other than economics] [难道保守派就是没有自由派那么聪明,取得博士学位和教职岗位的能力要差些?]证据不支持这种观点……[已有的研究形形色色。情况的复杂性部分体现在……]社会保守派与认知能力测试得分较低存在相关性,不过经济保守派则与得分较高存在相关性(Iyer, Koleva, Graham, Ditto, & Haidt, 2012; Kemmelmeier 2008)[自由意志主义者是IQ最高的政治团体,但他们在除经济学以外的所有社会科学中人数均不足] 5.2. The effects of education on political ideology 5.2. 政治意识形态教育的影响 Many may view education as “enlightening” and believe that an enlightened view comports with liberal politics. There is little evidence that education causes students to become more liberal. Instead, several longitudinal studies following tens of thousands of college students for many years have concluded that political socialization in college occurs primarily as a function of one’s peers, not education per se (Astin, 1993; Dey, 1997). 许多人可能将教育视为“启蒙”,并相信经过启蒙的观念会与自由派政治一致。鲜有证据表明教育会使得学生更为趋向自由派。几项对数万名大学生的多年追踪研究倒是得出结论认为,大学里的政治社会化过程【译注:指个体形塑政治态度的过程】主要取决于一个人的同伴,而非教育本身(Astin, 1993; Dey, 1997)。 5.3. Differences in interest 5.3. 兴趣差异 Might liberals simply find a career in social psychology (or the academy more broadly) more appealing? Yes, for several reasons. The Big-5 trait that correlates most strongly with political liberalism is openness to experience (r = .32 in Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski, & Sulloways’s 2003 meta-analysis), and people high in that trait are more likely to pursue careers that will let them indulge their curiosity and desire to learn, such as a career in the academy (McCrae, 1996). An academic career requires a Ph.D., and liberals enter (and graduate) college more interested in pursuing Ph.D.s than do conservatives (Woessner & Kelly-Woessner, 2009)… 有没有可能就是因为自由派觉得社会心理学(或更广泛而言,整个学术界)这种职业更有吸引力?有可能,理由有多个。与政治自由主义相关性最强的“五大”人格特点【译注:五大人格特点,指心理学上描述人格特征时常用的五维度模型,分别为外倾性、经验开放性、随和性、神经质和尽责性】就是“经验开放性”(在Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski和 Sulloways 2003年所做的meta分析中,r=0.32),而在这一特点上得分高的人更有可能从事能让他们的好奇心和求知欲得到满足的职业,比如学术事业(McCrae, 1996)。从事学术事业要求博士学位,而入读大学(和从大学毕业)的自由派比保守派更有兴趣谋求博士学位(Woessner & Kelly-Woessner, 2009)…… Such intrinsic variations in interest may be amplified by a “birds of a feather” or “homophile” effect. “Similarity attracts” is one of the most well-established findings in social psychology (Byrne, 1969). As a field begins to lean a certain way, the field will likely become increasingly attractive to people suited to that leaning. 这种兴趣上的内在差异有可能通过“物以类聚”或“同性相爱”效应而得到放大。“同类相吸”是社会心理学中理据最为坚实的成果之一(Byrne, 1969)。随着某个领域开始向一个特定方向倾斜,那么对于适应这种倾斜的人,这个领域就很可能会变得越来越具有吸引力。 Over time the group itself may become characterized by its group members. Professors and scientists may come to be seen as liberal just as nurses are typically thought of as being female. Once that happens, conservatives may disproportionately self-select out of joining the dissimilar group, based on a realistic perception that they “do not fit well.” [See Gross (2013)]… 长此以往,群体本身就被其成员特征化了。教授和科学家可能会逐渐被视为自由派,就像护士经常被理解成为女性一样。一旦如此,保守派就可能自我选择不参加这种异己群体,因为他们有一种现实的认知:他们“合不来”(见Gross , 2013)…… Self-selection clearly plays a role. But it would be ironic if an epistemic community resonated to empirical arguments that appear to exonerate the community of prejudice—when that same community roundly rejects those same arguments when invoked by other institutions to explain the under-representation of women or ethnic minorities (e.g., in STEM disciplines or other elite professions). [Note: we agree that self-selection is a big part of the explanation. If there were no discrimination and no hostile climate, the field would still lean left, as it used to. But it would still have some diversity, and would work much better.] 自我选择很明显起了作用。但是,这种经验论证似乎是在为共同体的歧视行为洗白,如果一个知识共同体与之产生共鸣,这会太讽刺——而且,正是这同一个共同体,在其它机构使用同一论证来解释女性或少数族裔代表性不足的问题时(如在STEM学科或其它精英行业中),对自我选择解释表示了严厉的拒斥。[注意:我们同意,自我选择在原因中占了很大比例。如果不存在歧视、不存在敌对的气氛,这个领域仍然会左倾,正如它在1990年代之前那样。但是它仍会有某种程度的多元性,并会运作得好得多。] 5.4. Hostile climate 5.4. 敌对气氛 Might self-selection be amplified by an accurate perception among conservative students that they are not welcome in the social psychology community? Consider the narrative of conservatives that can be formed from some recent conclusions in social psychological research: compared to liberals, conservatives are less intelligent (Hodson & Busseri, 2012) and less cognitively complex (Jost et al., 2003). They are more rigid, dogmatic, and inflexible (Jost et al., 2003). Their lower IQ explains their racism and sexism (Deary, Batty, & Gale, 2008), and their endorsement of inequality explains why they are happier than liberals (Napier & Jost, 2008). 自我选择有没有可能因为保守派学生的一种正确认知——他们得不到社会心理学共同体的欢迎——而被放大?考虑一下我们能从最近的一些社会心理学研究结论中得出的关于保守派的叙述:比起自由派,保守派没那么聪明(Hodson & Busseri, 2012),认知复杂度没那么高(Jost等, 2003)。他们更死板、更教条、更不懂变通(Jost等, 2003)。他们IQ低,所以他们有种族主义和性别歧视(Deary, Batty, & Gale, 2008),他们对不平等的支持正是他们之所以比自由派更快乐的理由(Napier & Jost, 2008)。 As conservative undergraduates encounter the research literature in their social psychology classes, might they recognize cues that the field regards them and their beliefs as defective? And what happens if they do attend graduate school and take part in conferences, classes, and social events in which almost everyone else is liberal? 当保守派本科生在他们的社会心理学课堂上接触到研究文献时,他们是否可能认出这种信号,猜到这个领域认为他们以及他们的信念存在缺陷?如果他们确实念上了研究生,那么当他们参会、上课、参加社会活动时,发现参与者几乎个个都是自由派,这时会发生什么? We ourselves have often heard jokes and disparaging comments made by social psychologists about conservatives, not just in informal settings but even from the podium at conferences and lectures. The few conservatives who have enrolled in graduate programs hear these comments too, and some of them wrote to Haidt in the months after his 2011 remarks at the SPSP convention to describe the hostility and ridicule that force them to stay “in the closet” about their political beliefs—or to leave the field entirely. 我们自己就经常听到社会心理学家关于保守派的种种笑话和鄙夷的评论,这不仅出现于非正式场合,而且也出现在会议和讲座的讲台上。注册参加了研究生项目的几个罕见的保守派学生,也听到了这些评论,其中一些在听了Haidt在人格与社会心理学学会2011年年会上所发评论后的几个月里还曾给他写信。他们在信中描写到,敌对和嘲弄迫使他们将自己的政治信念藏在“深柜”——或干脆离开这个领域。 Haidt (2011) put excerpts from these emails online (in anonymous form); representative of them is this one from a former graduate student in a top 10 Ph.D. program: Haidt(2011)在网上贴出了这些邮件的摘录(以匿名形式);其中一封的作者曾是排名前十的博士项目的研究生,很具有代表性:
I can’t begin to tell you how difficult it was for me in graduate school because I am not a liberal Democrat. As one example, following Bush’s defeat of Kerry, one of my professors would email me every time a soldier’s death in Iraq made the headlines; he would call me out, publicly blaming me for not supporting Kerry in the election. 要向你描述我在研究生院时因为不是自由派民主党而过得有多么艰难,我都没法开始。举个例子吧,布什打败克里之后,每逢有驻伊士兵死亡事件上头条,有位教授就会给我发邮件;他会指名道姓的公开指责我没在选举中支持克里。 I was a reasonably successful graduate student, but the political ecology became too uncomfortable for me. Instead of seeking the professorship that I once worked toward, I am now leaving academia for a job in industry. 作为一个研究生,我相当成功,但政治生态变得令我非常不舒服。我没有去谋求我曾为之奋斗的教授职位,而是离开学术圈,现在在实业部门工作。
Evidence of hostile climate is not just anecdotal. Inbar and Lammers (2012) asked members of the SPSP discussion list: “Do you feel that there is a hostile climate towards your political beliefs in your field?” 敌对气氛存在的证据并非只有个别逸闻。Inbar和 Lammers(2012)曾询问人格与社会心理学学会讨论组成员以下问题:“你是否觉得你所在的领域针对你的政治信念存在一种敌对气氛?” Of 17 conservatives, 14 (82%) responded “yes” (i.e., a response at or above the midpoint of the scale, where the midpoint was labeled “somewhat” and the top point “very much”), with half of those responding “very much.” 17个保守派中,14个(即82%)回答了“是”(即回应大于等于量表的中间选项,中间选项是“有些”,最大值则是“非常”),答“是”的人中又有一半回答的是“非常”。 In contrast, only 18 of 266 liberals (7%) responded “yes”, with only two of those responding “very much.” Interestingly, 18 of 25 moderates (72%) responded “yes,” with one responding “very much.” 与此形成对比的是,266个自由派中只有18个(即7%)回答了“是”,其中只有两个答的是“非常”。有意思的是,25个温和派中有18个(即72%)回答了“是”,1个答“非常”。 This surprising result suggests that the hostile climate may adversely affect not only conservatives, but anyone who is not liberal or whose values do not align with the liberal progress narrative. 这一令人惊讶的结果表明,敌对气氛所产生的负面影响不仅仅是对保守派而言,而且针对所有的非自由派,或者所有价值观不能与自由进步叙事相符的人。 5.5. Discrimination 5.5 歧视 The literature on political prejudice demonstrates that strongly identified partisans show little compunction about expressing their overt hostility toward the other side (e.g., Chambers et al., 2013; Crawford & Pilanski, 2013; Haidt, 2012). Partisans routinely believe that their hostility towards opposing groups is justified because of the threat posed to their values by dissimilar others (see Brandt et al., 2014, for a review). 政治偏见方面的研究文献证明,认同感强烈的党徒毫不避讳公开表达对对方的敌意(如见Chambers等, 2013; Crawford & Pilanski, 2013; Haidt, 2012)。党徒们例行公事般认为他们针对对立团体的敌视态度是合理的,因为异己分子威胁到他们珍视的价值(相关评论见Brandt 等, 2014)。 Social psychologists are unlikely to be immune to such psychological processes. Indeed, ample evidence using multiple methods demonstrates that social psychologists do in fact act in discriminatory ways toward non-liberal colleagues and their research. 社会心理学家不太可能对这种心理过程免疫。事实上,基于多种方法的大量证据表明,社会心理学家确实以歧视方式对待他们的非自由派同事及其学术研究。 [Here we review experimental field research: if you change a research proposal so that its hypotheses sound conservative, but you leave the methods the same, then the manuscript is deemed less publishable, and is less likely to get IRB approval] [我们这里来回顾一下实验性的实地研究:如果改动一下你的研究计划,使其假设看起来像个保守派假设,但研究方法保持不变,那么这个稿子发表的可能性在人们眼里就会降低,得到伦理委员会认可的可能性也会降低] Inbar and Lammers (2012) found that most social psychologists who responded to their survey were willing to explicitly state that they would discriminate against conservatives. Their survey posed the question: “If two job candidates (with equal qualifications) were to apply for an opening in your department, and you knew that one was politically quite conservative, do you think you would be inclined to vote for the more liberal one?” Inbar和Lammers(2012)发现,绝大多数接受调查的社会心理学家都愿意明白无误地表明,他们会歧视保守派。他们在调查中提出这样一个问题:“两个求职者(条件相同)申请你所在院系的空缺,你要是知道其中一个政治上特别保守,你觉得你会倾向于投票赞成更自由派的那个吗?” Of the 237 liberals, only 42 (18%) chose the lowest scale point, “not at all.” In other words, 82% admitted that they would be at least a little bit prejudiced against a conservative candidate, and 43% chose the midpoint (“somewhat”) or above. In contrast, the majority of moderates (67%) and conservatives (83%) chose the lowest scale point (“not at all”)…. 在237个自由派中,仅有42个(即18%)选择了量表上的最低值,“绝不会”。换句话说,82%的人承认他们至少会对保守派求职者有一点点歧视,43%选择了中间值(“有些”)及以上。与此形成对比的是,多数温和派(67%)和保守派(83%)选择了最低值(“绝不”)…… Conservative graduate students and assistant professors are behaving rationally when they keep their political identities hidden, and when they avoid voicing the dissenting opinions that could be of such great benefit to the field. Moderate and libertarian students may be suffering the same fate. 当保守派研究生和助理教授隐瞒他们政治派别时,他们是在依理性行事,然而如果他们缄默不言,那却将是这个领域的巨大损失。温和派和自由意志主义的学生或许也正在遭受同一命运。

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6. Recommendations 6. 建议 [Please see the longer discussion of recommended steps on our “Solutions” page. In the BBS paper we offer a variety of specific recommendations for what can be done to ameliorate the problem. These are divided into three sections] [建议措施的更长讨论,见我们的“方案”页面。在发表于《行为与脑科学》的文章中,我们提供了多种具体可行建议,以改进这一问题。建议分为三部分] 6.1. Organizational responses 6.1. 组织方面的回应 [We looked at the list of policy steps that the American Psychological Association recommended for itself to improve diversity with regard to race, gender, and sexual orientation. Many of them work well for increasing political diversity, e.g.,:] [我们查看了美国心理学会为增加自身的种族、性别和性取向多元性而建议的系列政策措施。其中许多同样可以有效的增加政治多元性,如……]
  • Formulate and adopt an anti-discrimination policy resolution.
  • 制定并采纳一项反歧视政策决议。
  • Implement a “climate study” regarding members’ experiences, comfort/discomfort, and positive/negative attitudes/opinions/policies affecting or about members of politically diverse groups.
  • 实施一项“气氛研究”,研究对象是其成员的经历,包括舒适的/不适的,以及他们持有的、会影响政治多样化的不同团体(或与他们有关)的积极/消极的态度/观点/政策
  • Each organization should develop strategies to encourage and support research training programs and research conferences to attract, retain, and graduate conservative and other non-liberal doctoral students and early career professionals.
  • 每一个组织都应该形成各种策略,鼓励和支持研究训练项目和研究会议去吸引、留住或毕业送走保守派及其他非自由派博士研究生和新入行的业内人士。
6.2. Professorial responses 6.2. 教授方面的回应 There are many steps that social psychologists who are also college professors can take to encourage non-liberal students to join the field, or to “come out of the closet”: 1) Raise consciousness [acknowledge publicly that we have problem]; 2) Welcome feedback from non-liberals. 3) Expand diversity statements. [i.e., add “political diversity” to any list of kinds of diversity being encouraged]. 同时身为大学教授的社会心理学家,可以采用多个措施来鼓励非自由派学生加入这个领域,或者“出柜”:1)提高意识[公开承认我们有问题];2)欢迎非自由派的反馈。3)扩充有关多元性的声明。[即在任何形式的多元性鼓励列表中加入“政治多元性”]。 6.3. Changes to research practices 6.3. 改变研究做法 1.Be alert to double standards. 2. Support adversarial collaborations.  3. Improve research norms to increase the degree to which a research field becomes self-correcting. 1.警惕双重标准。2. 支持对抗性合作。3. 改进研究规范,以增加研究领域趋向自我纠正的程度。

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7. Conclusion 7. 结论 Others have sounded this alarm before (e.g., MacCoun, 1998; Redding, 2001; Tetlock, 1994)… No changes were made in response to the previous alarms, but we believe that this time may be different. Social psychologists are in deep and productive discussions about how to address multiple threats to the integrity of their research and publication process. This may be a golden opportunity for the field to take seriously the threats caused by political homogeneity. 早已有人敲响过这一警钟(如MacCoun, 1998; Redding, 2001; Tetlock, 1994)……对于之前的警钟却无人回应,不过我们相信这次可能有点不同。关于如何应对他们的研究和出版程序之健全性所面临的诸多威胁的问题,社会心理学家目前正在进行深入且卓有成效的讨论。现在也许就是严肃对待政治同质化所导致危机的黄金时期。 We have focused on social (and personality) psychology, but the problems we describe occur in other areas of psychology (Redding, 2001), as well as in other social sciences (Gross, 2013; Redding, 2013). 我们的焦点是社会(及人格)心理学,但我们所描述的问题也发生于心理学的其它领域(Redding, 2001),以及其它社会科学领域(Gross, 2013; Redding, 2013)。 Fortunately, psychology is uniquely well-prepared to rise to the challenge. The five core values of APA include “continual pursuit of excellence; knowledge and its application based upon methods of science; outstanding service to its members and to society; social justice, diversity and inclusion; ethical action in all that we do.” (APA, 2009). 幸运地是,心理学是唯一有准备来应对之个挑战的领域。美国心理学会的五大核心价值包括“不断追求卓越;基于科学方法的知识及其应用;对成员和社会的出色服务;社会正义、多元性和包容性;一切行动遵守伦理规范。”(APA, 2009)。 If discrimination against non-liberals exists at even half the level described in section 4 of this paper, and if this discrimination damages the quality of some psychological research, then all five core values are being betrayed. 如果针对非自由派的歧视存在,哪怕只达到本文第四部分所描述的一半水平,且如果这种歧视损害了某些心理学研究的质量,那就和五大核心价值背道而驰了。 Will psychologists tolerate and defend the status quo, or will psychology make the changes needed to realize its values and improve its science? Social psychology can and should lead the way. 心理学家会容忍并捍卫现状?还是心理学会作出必要改变,实现自己所珍视的价值,改进这一科学?社会心理学能够且应该带个好头。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

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【2016-03-08】

@pkuwd: to@whigzhou 嫁个男人生五个孩子在家里做主这种不算女权!做个飞行员比嫁个飞行员好!能争取成为市长远好过争取成为市长夫人!

@whigzhou: 嫁男人生孩子当然不算女权,做飞行员当市长也不算,惊叹号再多也不算,只有要求飞行员中女性比例必须达到50%,市议会里女性席位不得少于50%,才算,你out了~

@whigzhou: 早期女权主义者(和其他进步主义者一样)是我尊重的,她们依靠自身的努力与付出(more...)

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【2016-03-08】 @pkuwd: to@whigzhou 嫁个男人生五个孩子在家里做主这种不算女权!做个飞行员比嫁个飞行员好!能争取成为市长远好过争取成为市长夫人! @whigzhou: 嫁男人生孩子当然不算女权,做飞行员当市长也不算,惊叹号再多也不算,只有要求飞行员中女性比例必须达到50%,市议会里女性席位不得少于50%,才算,你out了~ @whigzhou: 早期女权主义者(和其他进步主义者一样)是我尊重的,她们依靠自身的努力与付出、亲身实践,去突破文化与制度障碍,为自己也为弱势女性争取更多自由,但这种女权主义(和其他进步主义)在当代已经十分罕见了,回顾起来,早期与后期的分界线大概是在大萧条时代。 @whigzhou: 如今触目可见的女权主义(和其他进步主义),多是我所称的“犟叫花”型,在她们看来,为她们提供某些机会、资源或条件,让她们达到某种生活状态,是其他社会成员的义务,若是不给,就往你们身上抹鼻涕 @whigzhou: 她们不仅往拒绝承认或被认为未能履行好保姆义务的人身上抹鼻涕,还会往那些安于传统角色的女性身上抹鼻涕,好像只有她们才知道该怎么做个女人  
奶嘴与拳头

【2016-03-05】

@whigzhou: 1)越来越多人已经被左派那些腌臜货烦透了,2)这些腌臜货背后其实有个共同倾向:文化气质的全面阴柔化,3)这一点很少人清晰意识到,虽然不少人可能隐约感觉到,4)但这个火山口迟早会被找到

@whigzhou: 政治学家迄今好像还很少用阳刚-阴柔这个维度来分析政治光谱,其实这个维度很有用,对解释政治倾向中的先天成分尤其管用,天生保守派的深层心理基础无非就是阳刚气质:规则无情,愿赌服输,个人对自己负责,命苦别怪人,唾弃福利主义奶嘴,碰到坏人一拳打回去,尊严重于生命,安全主要靠自己……

@whigzhou: 这事情我想了很久了,越来越觉得就这么回事。

@whigzhou: 但阳刚倾向也分两种,一种是集体主义的,他们心目中的理想国家或领袖是阳刚的,自己却未必阳刚,法西斯就是这种,另一种是个人主义的,要的是自己(more...)

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7042
【2016-03-05】 @whigzhou: 1)越来越多人已经被左派那些腌臜货烦透了,2)这些腌臜货背后其实有个共同倾向:文化气质的全面阴柔化,3)这一点很少人清晰意识到,虽然不少人可能隐约感觉到,4)但这个火山口迟早会被找到 @whigzhou: 政治学家迄今好像还很少用阳刚-阴柔这个维度来分析政治光谱,其实这个维度很有用,对解释政治倾向中的先天成分尤其管用,天生保守派的深层心理基础无非就是阳刚气质:规则无情,愿赌服输,个人对自己负责,命苦别怪人,唾弃福利主义奶嘴,碰到坏人一拳打回去,尊严重于生命,安全主要靠自己…… @whigzhou: 这事情我想了很久了,越来越觉得就这么回事。 @whigzhou: 但阳刚倾向也分两种,一种是集体主义的,他们心目中的理想国家或领袖是阳刚的,自己却未必阳刚,法西斯就是这种,另一种是个人主义的,要的是自己阳刚,国家靠边,红脖是也。 @whigzhou: 同样,阴柔倾向也分两种,集体主义的要的是nanny state,个人主义的就是老派liberal @whigzhou: Game of Thrones为啥这么火?久违的阳刚之气,第一集里Ned砍下逃兵Will头颅的一幕,可谓阳刚之至。 @寄生草的空间:辉总的阳刚阴柔的定义和常规稍有差异。忽略这一点而做的批评并无意义。 @whigzhou: 我确实不知道常规定义是什么,我的用法大致和[[Geert Hofstede]]在《文化与组织》里的用法差不多 @溪月寒星:我不觉得你说的这些倾向和"阳刚"这个词相关性很大. 在我看来肌肉男,大胡子与阳刚关系大。但是如果我们统计一下世界上的男性, 能够发现肌肉男大胡子特征和规则无情,愿赌服输,个人对自己负责的心理基础存在强相关性吗? @whigzhou: 我们之间在概念上好像有些误解 @whigzhou: Hofstede用阳刚-阴柔这个维度(这是他用的五个维度之一)比较各文化时,看的是一种文化中,在个人的哪些品质/行为值得赞赏的问题上,多大程度上对男女两性区别对待 @whigzhou: Hofstede用这对概念度量群体的文化特质,但依我看,也可以用来度量个人的文化倾向 @whigzhou: 需要强调的是,如此界定的阳刚倾向和“雄性化程度”不一样,比如一位母亲,自己可以是高度女性气质的,但假如她对儿子和女儿的期待截然不同(比如期待儿子面对危险表现勇敢,对女儿却没有同样期待),那她就是亲阳刚文化的 @Ryan_LA2000:呵呵,恐怖分子蛮符合你的“阳刚”的定义的。 @whigzhou: 有可能,他们可能也符合我对“生命、人性、信仰、虔诚、献身精神、活力、……”的定义,嗯,怎么啦? @whigzhou: 我既然认为这是一个能解释政治倾向中先天成分的因素,那么我显然不会同时认为它能单独保证什么好结果——比如自由,否则还要自由就太容易了 @whigzhou: 这个念头果然被很多人呵呵了,不意外,当初刚冒出来时我自己也呵呵过,但越来越觉得其实没那么呵呵