【2015-08-11】 @海德沙龙 【焦点议题】有关贫富差距的数字常令公众大吃一惊，但许多抓人眼球的惊人“差距、变化”，其实往往是统计假象，其背后根本没有人们以为它所揭示的事实，同一组数据，平凡还是惊艳，更多取决于如何组织和表述它，本文分析了其中一例，今后我们还会介绍更多 http://t.cn/RLmCHik @whigzhou: 所以在对统计数字发出感慨之前，最好先弄清楚统计指标是怎么设计的，然后再想想差异或变化到底是不是你打算感叹的那个因素造成的。举个简单例子，假如收入基尼系数以家户为统计单位，那么仅仅年轻人提早离家单过、家户规模缩小这一个因素，即可显著提高基尼系数。 @用户3548260260:这篇。。。完全就是逆向恰亚诺夫循环呀。之前在秦晖桑书上说到一个俄国民粹派专家叫恰亚诺夫，他推崇俄国传统村社经济，要反驳西化派关于乡村不平等的批判，就找出了年岁变换这个要素。据他研究，一个家庭中，有小孩时就会成本上升， @whigzhou: 家户规模是我举的例子，原文是有关时间偏好的 @用户3548260260:是的，不过我想他们都指向一点，就是也许贫富差距不一定是意味着社会分层，也蕴含着其它可能，而常常被好心人士忽略咯，就像你说的一样，也像常说的一句话：统计是门语言，不是科学 @whigzhou: 嗯嗯  

【2015-08-11】 @熊观七路:辉格老师所持的无镇腹主义更倾向于大卫.弗里德曼吗？ @whigzhou: 比较能相容，但也有很大不同，哲学基础上，他是功利主义，虽然是我比较能接受的版本，但和我们契约主义还是有着深层区别，现实问题上，他大概接受不了我的很多亲保守派主张，但无论如何，对我来说，他都符合最理想对话者的条件 @whigzhou: 所谓理想对话者，就是三分钟内即可hedge出各自论点，找出分歧所在，并在五分钟内将讨论转向经验事实的认定方面（这方面的分歧总是难以也不应指望在短时间内消除），相反，碰到糟糕对话者，大伯我就只好把精力都花在剃头上了。

【2015-08-11】 @黄章晋ster:因为他们俩大致属于同一个生态位。 @tertio：右边这个判断错得太离谱了吧，这等于说安兰德与哈耶克一个生态位 @whigzhou: 教官说的是事实，虽然我对这一事实何以出现也是大惑不解。刚花了十几分钟想了想，这似乎揭示了有关政治生态、政治光谱，以及政治倾向如何结晶成派系的某些一般模式 @whigzhou: 为说明这情况，我需要先做一点预备性论证。对个人而言，从哲学基础，到主义（或者叫政治信条，表现为一组标签），再到具体的政治主张，可以形成一个连贯而自洽的体系，但从群体表现看，事情不是按这个逻辑发生的，光谱、主义、派系，可以在这三个层次的任意一个上汇聚结晶，结果就是若干团乱麻。 @whigzhou: 因为绝大多数人不会将自己的反思深入到哲学层次，所以，除了一小撮有哲学兴趣的人之间，结晶通常发生在后两个层次上 @whigzhou: 至于后两个层次哪个优先，取决于特定制度环境下，表达机会和参与机会之前的相对关系，假如表达机会很多，参与机会很少，则结晶倾向于在第二个层次（即主义层次）上发生，反之，若参与机会相对较多，则结晶更多发生在第三层次（即主张层次）上 @whigzhou: 注意：我说的参与机会并不直接对应结铛或投票的机会，而是更一般的指，以自身行动改变政治进程的可能性，比如同样是票决制或代议制，越是下层的地方性事务，个人参与就越大，而在联邦层面，大部分以为自己在参与的人，其实不过是在表达 @whigzhou: 问题是，第二个层次上的共同点，虽然在站队（更贴切说是虚拟站队）时最具号召力，却往往是最肤浅也最没用的，举个较纯粹的例子，罗斯巴德和大卫·弗里德曼常被一起归为Libertarian和市场无镇腹主义，但这两位无论在哲学基础上，还是现实主张上，可以说毫无共同之处（除了都用英语写作之外） 。 @whigzhou: 草，对付关键词屏蔽花了二十分钟，本来还想多说几句，太麻烦，算了～

Shocking data on wealth inequality 哗众取宠的财富不平等数据 作者：Scott Sumner @ 2015-5-18 译者：Veidt       校对：小聂 来源：Library of Economics and Liberty，http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/05/shocking_new_da.html Imagine living in a country where the top 30% of the population had roughly 25 times as much wealth per person as the bottom 30% of the population. That seems pretty unequal, doesn't it? 设想一下，你生活在这样一个国家，其中最富有的30%人口的个人财富大约是最贫穷的30%的人口的25倍。看起来挺不平等的，不是吗？ Now suppose the same statistics applied, but every person at any given age had exactly the same wealth. All 18 year olds had the same wealth as other members of their cohort, as did all 60 year olds. But 18 year olds had much less wealth than 60 year olds. 现在假设同样的统计结果，并且所有年龄相同的人拥有的财富也相同。所有18岁的人和他们的同龄人拥有一样多的财富，所有60岁的人也都拥有相同的财富。但是18岁的人所拥有的财富相比60岁的人则少得多。 Now how would you feel about the data? Does that sort of society seem highly unequal? Not to me, indeed in a sense there'd be no inequality at all; each person would experience the exact same wealth trajectory over the course of their life. 现在你对该数据又会做何感想呢？这样的社会看起来是高度不平等的吗？我不这么认为，实际上从某种意义上说，这里完全不存在任何不平等，每个人在他的整个生命历程中的财富轨迹都是完全相同的。 Of course we don't live in that sort of society, there are large differences in wealth at any given age. But even if we did have that sort of equality, the aggregate wealth data would look shockingly unequal. 当然，我们并不生活在这样的社会里，在任何年龄的人群中都均在巨大的贫富差距。但是即使在相同年龄的人群中财富分配是均等的，合计起来的财富数据还是会呈现出惊人的不平等。 Here's some Census data for the US, showing that the median person in the over 55 age group holds about 25 times as much wealth as in the 18 to 35 group: 下图中是一些来自美国人口普查的数据，其中显示年龄超过55岁人群的财富中位数是年龄在18到35岁之间人群的财富中位数的大约25倍。 So could we solve this measurement problem by getting wealth inequality data for each age cohort? Not even close, because wealth is a poor measure of economic well-being. 那么我们是否可以通过对各个年龄段的人口分别计算财富的不平等程度来解决这个测量方法上的问题呢？还差得远，因为财富并不是一个衡量经济福利的好指标。 Suppose you had two people who each earned $100,000/year in wage income. Over the course of their life they both eventually spent all of their wealth on consumption goods. Both ended up with an identical level of total consumption, in present value terms. But one person spent all his money as it was earned, and then relied on Social Security, while the other saved 1/2 of his wage income, spending much more in his later years. 假设有两个人每年都获得十万美元的工资收入，在他们的一生中，他们也都最终将所有的财富用于消费。从现值的意义上说，两个人一生的总消费水平是相同的。但是其中一个人在赚到钱之后马上就把钱花掉了，之后依赖社保；另一个人则在获得工资收入后将其中的一半用于储蓄，将更多的钱用于晚年的消费。 By age 65 the thrifty guy might have several million dollars in wealth, while the other guy had almost nothing, even though (by assumption) they were equally well off in economic terms, they simply had different preferences as to when to spend their money. 在65岁时，那个懂得储蓄的人大概会拥有数百万美元的财富，而另一位则几乎没有任何财富，从经济意义上说，他们享受到的福利是相同的，区别只是他们在何时花掉赚来的钱这一点上有着不同的偏好。 I was recently at a NGDP conference in West Virginia, and noticed this in the local paper's advice column: 我最近在西弗吉尼亚参加一次关于名义GDP（NGDP）的会议，在当地报纸的建议栏目里，我注意到了如下对话：

Dear Dave, My wife and I have just started getting on track with our money. We have $2,000 in savings, and the only debt we have is our house and two cars. I work in the oil and gas industry and make about $180,000 a year, but things are pretty volatile right now. We're upside down on both vehicles, and we owe $39,000 on one and about $48,000 on the other. Under the circumstances, should we go ahead and build a fully funded emergency fund or work on paying off the cars? Kendall 亲爱的Dave，我和妻子才刚刚开始赚钱。我们有两千美元的储蓄，仅有的债务是我们的房贷和两辆车的车贷。我在油气行业工作，每年的收入大约有18万美元，但现在形势很不稳定。为了买这两辆车我们已经把钱都花光了，在其中一辆车上我们欠了39,000美元，另一辆车则欠了48,000美元。在这种情况下，我们是应该把赚来的钱用于设立一个充足的应急基金呢，还是用来偿还两辆汽车的欠款呢？Kendall Dear Kendall, Are you kidding me? Sell the cars, dude! You need to go to Kelly Blue Book's website right now, and find out what your cars are really worth. Then, put them on the market as a private sale. You'll get thousands more selling them that way than you will at a dealership. You'll have to talk to a local credit union or bank for a small loan to cover the difference, plus a little bit more so you guys can get a couple of little beaters to drive for a while. 亲爱的Kendall， 你不是在跟我开玩笑吧？赶快把车都卖了吧，我的朋友！ 你现在要做的是去Kelly蓝皮书的网站查一下你的车到底值多少钱，然后以私人销售的名义把它们挂到汽车交易市场上。以这种方式出售，你得到的钱会比你通过汽车经纪商出售多几千美元。你还需要去找一家本地信用合作社或者银行谈谈，借一笔小额贷款来弥补差额，并让你们能够买两辆小“甲壳虫”暂时开一段时间。【译注：此处beaters疑为beatles之讹。】

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess there aren't very many similar letters in China. Like the advice columnist "Dave", I have a temperament that makes it easy to save. But as a libertarian I favor allowing people like Kendall to spend their money when and how they wish. 这里我想斗胆猜测一下，中国应该不会有太多类似的读者来信。和上面那位建议专栏的作者Dave一样，我在性格上倾向于储蓄。但是作为一名自由意志主义者，我倾向于允许Kendall这样的人按自己的意愿去决定何时、如何花自己的钱。 The only qualification is that I think people should be forced to save enough to cover the things that society would otherwise have to pay (basic retirement, medical, etc.) 我认为唯一合理的限制是，假如因为人们因自己的储蓄不足，而需要整个社会来付出代价时，强制性储蓄才是必须的（例如基本的退休工资，医疗保障等）。 If we believe that people should be free to choose when to spend their wealth, we will end up with far more wealth inequality than if we try to force everyone to consume the "right amount" of each year's income. But I don't see how that sort of wealth inequality could be considered a problem. 如果我们相信人们拥有选择何时花掉自己所拥有财富的自由，那么相比强制所有人都花掉每年收入中“正确比例”的钱，最终的财富不平等程度会高得多。但我完全不觉得这种原因导致的财富不平等会是个问题。 Inevitably some will misconstrue what I am saying here. Just to be clear, even accounting for all the factors I mentioned (age, saving preferences, etc) there is still lots more inequality due to big differences in lifetime earnings (or inherited wealth.) So this post is not trying to suggest that inequality is not a problem. 难免有人会误解我的意思，所以我要澄清一下，即便考虑了上面提到的所有这些因素（年龄、储蓄偏好等）之后，由人们生命周期中巨大的收入差异（或是财产继承上的差异）所造成的不平等仍然是巨大的。这篇文章并不是想说不平等不是个问题。 Rather I'm suggesting that if inequality is a problem, we would not be able to know that from the wealth inequality data that is presented in the media. And that's because even if wealth inequality were not a problem at all, the actual inequality of wealth would look shocking large, with 100 to 1 disparities easily accounted for by nothing more than differences in age and saving propensities. 实际上我更想表达的是，假如不平等的确是一个问题，我们并不能从媒体上出现的那些有关财富不平等的数据里得知这一点。因为即使在那些财富不平等根本不算个问题的情况下，实际数据上的财富不平等程度看起来也会很惊人，仅仅是年龄和储蓄偏好上的一些差异就能轻易地造成100比1这样的差距。 The only data that truly gets at the inequality question is consumption inequality, which is very rarely discussed in the media. 对于不平等问题，唯一切中要害的数据，其实是消费的不平等，但有关后者却极少在媒体上被讨论。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Are Aussie housing regulations the dumbest rules on Earth? 澳洲的房屋管制是否是世界上最愚蠢的规定？ 作者：Scott Sumner @ 2015-6-7 译者：混乱阈值 （@混乱阈值） 校对：小册子（@昵称被抢的小册子）沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 来源：TheMoneyIllusion， http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29551 Commenter Colin Docherty sent me an article on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s counterproductive attempt to hold down house prices with tight money: 评论员Colin Docherty发给我一篇关于澳大利亚储备银行试图用紧缩银根这种适得其反的手段来抑制房价的文章：【译注：作者收到的文章地址http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/housing-bubble-compels-rba-to-hold-rates-at-225pc-20150407-1mfyvh】

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to defer its widely anticipated April rate cut for at least another month might have been influenced by the increasingly pricey housing market, which it regards as posing a real “dilemma”. 外界普遍预期澳大利亚储备银行将在四月份降息，但其却出人意料地决定将降息往后推迟至少一个月。此举可能是受了房价日趋上扬的影响。在储备银行看来，房价的不断上涨让他们陷入了真正的“两难处境”。 According to UBS, in March the ratio of Australian dwelling prices-to-disposable household incomes equalled – and is presently surpassing – the previous record of 5.3 times set back in September 2003. And they predict it will climb further. 根据瑞士联合银行（UBS）给出的数据，三月份澳洲的住房价格与可支配家庭收入比已经追平——并且正在赶超——2003年9月创下的5.3倍的纪录。而且上升势头可能还会持续。

As a result, Aussie inflation is now sliding far below the 2.5% target, and unemployment has been climbing. This is the same policy the Fed tried in 1929. This is the same policy the Riksbank tried in 2010.  Do central bankers ever learn? 结果，澳洲目前通胀率远低于2.5%的目标，而失业率则一直在攀升。同样的经济政策，美联储（Fed）在1929年就用过了，瑞典中央银行（Riksbank）在2010年也用过了。中央银行的银行家们就不会吸取教训吗？ Back in 2009 I ridiculed the idea of bubbles by pointing out that while all the English speaking countries had seen huge house price surges in the early 2000s, only the US and Ireland saw a crash.  Australian prices were particularly robust. But despite the bubblemongers being wrong about these countries, they continued to insist it was all a bubble. 2009年时我就嘲笑过那些认为房市存在泡沫的观点，那时我指出，尽管在本世纪头几年所有英语国家的房价都迅猛上涨，但只有美国和爱尔兰的房市出现了崩盘。而澳大利亚的房价尤其坚挺。尽管那些泡沫论贩子对这些国家的房市判断出错，他们依然坚持房地产市场全是泡沫。 OK, I can sort of understand how people could make that mistake in 2009. But now, six years later, Australian house prices are still up at the same lofty levels.  Is the term “bubble” now so elastic that it can fit a house price boom that’s occupied virtually the entire 21st century? 好吧，人们在2009年犯错还算情有可原。然而六年后的今天，澳大利亚的房价依然处在同样的高位。如果整个21世纪至今几乎一直在延续的房价上涨还能叫做是“泡沫”，那“泡沫”这个词的弹性也太大了吧？ How about if prices are still high in 2020—will it still be a bubble?  How about 2030?  How about 2050? Of course the bubblemongers will refuse to answer these questions because like soothsayers they always want an “out” if their predictions fail.  They always want to be able to say; “You just wait and see.” 如果房价在2020年依旧很高，还是泡沫吗？2030年呢？2050年呢？当然这些泡沫论贩子会拒绝回答这些问题，因为他们就像算命先生那样，总能为自己失败的预言找到托词。他们永远会说：“你等着瞧好了。” And how about those people who said Bitcoin was a bubble at $25?  I’m will to buy coins from you guys at twice the price you said was a bubble back then. 那么那些在比特币价值25美元的时候说出现了泡沫的人怎么样了？我愿意用当初你们说是泡沫的价格的两倍跟你们购买比特币。 I still haven’t gotten to the dumbest policy on Earth.  Australia is the size of the continental US, with a population smaller than Texas.  Like Texans, Aussies should be able to afford comfortable single-family homes.  But in the right column of the article linked to above, I see links for these articles: 目前为止我还没说到地球上最愚蠢的政策呢。澳大利亚的国土面积和美国本土一样大，人口比德克萨斯州还少。和德州人一样，澳洲人应该能够买得起舒适的独户住宅。然而就在前面提到的文章的右边栏上，我看到了以下这些文章的链接：

• Australia becoming a nation of landlords
• 澳大利亚成了地主的国家
• http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/australia-becoming-a-nation-of-landlords-20150605-ghhjpi
• Melbourne developer experiments with micro-apartments, sliding walls
• 墨尔本的房屋开发商尝试建造带滑动墙的微型公寓
• http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/sliding-walls-tiny-apartments-and-how-to-solve-the-housing-shortage-20150605-ghgfmz

I can visualize microapartments in Hong Kong, but Australia? Are the zoning regulators there sadists?  What would cause an otherwise sensible country to have such insane housing rules that Sydney would end up with some of the highest land prices on Earth? 我能想象香港的微型公寓，但在澳洲建造微型公寓？澳洲土地规划者是施虐狂吗？是什么让这个本来理智的国家有如此疯狂的房屋规定，以致于悉尼要跻身世界上地价最贵的城市之一？ Milton Friedman said: 米尔顿·弗里德曼说过：

If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand. 如果你让联邦政府负责管理撒哈拉沙漠，五年之内沙子就会短缺。

Well the Australian government was put in charge of land use in a country the size of the Sahara, and now they have microapartments. 好吧，人们让澳洲政府负责管理面积相当于撒哈拉沙漠的土地使用，于是现在就有了微型公寓。 I’m begging regulators there to make me look like a fool.  Pop that nonexistent housing bubble by changing the fundamentals.  Give landowners the freedom to build, like they have in Germany.  Please, make me look like a fool. 我倒是希望澳洲的监管者们能让我看起来像个笨蛋。通过改变经济基本因素来戳破那根本不存在的房市泡沫吧。像德国那样给予土地所有者建造房屋的自由吧。拜托了，让我看起来像个笨蛋吧。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

【2015-08-10】 @冬川豆 “在可以预见的未来，认同政治的历史影响将会凌驾于共识政治之上。我之所以要给读者提供认知训练，就是为了让他们在即将来临的决断时刻正确判断形势。骰子落地以前，机会千金难买；骰子一旦落地，坐失良机者必定后悔莫及。”《读史早知今日事——<经与史>跋》 http://t.cn/RLEXoZc @whigzhou: 我来概括一下吧，本文大概表达了三点意思。A）我们需要某种历史哲学吗？需要。这点 我完全同意，理由见托马斯·库恩，如我常说的：1）不戴上某副眼镜，你啥也看不见，2）眼镜质量严重影响观看效果；3）假如你以为自己没戴眼镜，那其实只是因为你对自己所戴眼镜缺乏自省，而这往往意味着你那副眼镜质量很差 @whigzhou: B）第二点意思可以用我的两勺旧鸡汤概括：1）等科学证据来了再行动（或判断），是很不科学的；2）一个理性的人，会利用任何线索（无论有多微弱）来调整自己的判断和行动，以不合科学评审标准而放弃这样的机会，是很不理性的 @whigzhou: 好，现在最精彩的部分来了，C）那么历史哲学究竟价值何在？答：它把历史学变成了狗屎，正如科学哲学把科学变成了狗屎，历史哲学是文明曙光，历史学则是文明朽坏之际发出的腐臭 #神奇大逆转# @whigzhou: #大伯剃头学#  

The Hours and Academic Achievement 时间分配与学业成就 作者：Bryan Caplan @ 2015-05-13 译者：史祥莆（@史祥莆）                   校对：Marcel ZHANG（@马赫塞勒张） 制图：amen（@治愈系历史） 来源：Library of Economics and Liberty http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/05/the_hours_acade.html Adults love controlling the way kids spend the hours of the day. What's the payoff for all their meddling? Hofferth and Sandberg's "How American Children Spend Their Time" (Journal of Marriage and the Family) provides some fascinating answers for kids ages 0-12. 成年人总喜欢控制孩子们每天支配时间的方式。然而这样多管闲事的结果是什么呢？Hofferth和Sandberg在“美国儿童如何支配时间”（刊于《婚姻与家庭杂志》）一文中针对12岁以下儿童给出了一些让人着迷的答案。 After compiling the basic facts about kids' time use from the 1997 Child Development Supplement to the PSID, H&S regress measures of academic achievement on time use, controlling for child's age, gender, race, ethnicity, head of household's education and age, plus family structure, family employment, family income, and family size. All test scores have a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15, and all time use is expressed in hours per week. 在将1997年《儿童发展附录》中有关儿童时间使用的基本事实编入PSID之后，Hofferth和Sandberg对学业成就和时间利用进行了分组回归，分别控制了儿童年龄、性别、种族、民族、家长教育程度与年龄，以及家庭结构、家庭就业状况、家庭收入和家庭规模等变量。所有测试结果都以100为均值且以15为标准差，所有的时间利用都以每周的小时数表示。 结果： The big result is the lack of results. Controlling for family and child background, time in school and studying barely help - and television viewing barely hurts. Contrary to wishful assertions that exercising the body improves the mind, sports don't matter either. Out of nineteen activities, only two predict greater academic success across the board: reading and visiting. 最大的结果就是没有结果。控制家庭和儿童的背景因素之后，在学校和学习中花费的时间鲜有助益，而看电视也看不出什么坏处。运动和锻炼身体有益心智这样的断言，也被证明是一厢情愿的。在19种活动之中，只有两项活动预示着学业成功：阅读和游历。 The estimated effect of visiting is modest. Reading, however, is a huge deal. Ceteris paribus, 10 extra hours of reading per week raise letter-word comprehension by .5 SDs, and passage comprehension, applied problems, and calculations scores by .4 SDs. 评估中参观的影响适中，而阅读则关系显著。其他条件相同时，每周10小时的额外阅读，会将字词理解能力提高0.5个标准差，段落理解能力、应用问题能力和计算能力也会提高0.4个标准差。 Despite obvious worries about reverse causation - smart kids enjoy books more - much of this is plausibly causal. After all, many smart kids don't read much, and H&S include a lot of solid control variables. And you really can learn a lot from books. 尽管相反的因果关系显然也值得考虑——聪明的孩子更热衷读书——但上面提及的因果关系貌似更可信。毕竟，很多聪明孩子不怎么读书，并且Hofferth和Sandberg纳入了很多牢靠的控制变量，而且你确实可以通过读书学到很多。 I've long argued that the effects of parenting are overrated. H&S's results lead to a separate but related result: How kids spend their time is overrated, too. If adults really wanted to raise kids' test scores, they'd adopt the maxim, "If the kid has a book in his hands, leave him in peace." 我一向主张，家长的影响被高估了。Hofferth和Sandberg的结果给出了一个不同而又相关的结论：儿童支配时间方式的影响也被高估了。如果成年人真的希望提高孩子的考试分数，他们应该采纳这条箴言：“子执卷，汝勿扰。” Which, by sheer coincidence, was the maxim young Bryan Caplan vainly begged all the adults in his life to embrace. Reading rules, school drools. 无巧不成书，这正是后生Bryan Caplan徒然规劝天下父母以终身信奉的格言：阅读至上，学校误人。

Jeb Bush’s Beltway Climb 杰布·布什的华府攀登路 作者：社论 @2015-7-24 译者：王涵秋    校对：Animu (@丹哲生) 来源：华尔街日报 网址：http://www.wsj.com/articles/jeb-bushs-beltway-climb-1437693373 He proposes reforms that are good, bad and ugly. 他提出的改革之中，有好的，有坏的，还有不堪入目的 As Florida Governor, Jeb Bush conquered what he called “Mount Tallahassee,” and now that he’s running for President he is proposing to do the same to “Mount Washington.” On Monday he offered some initial ideas on how to do it, and some are better than others. 作为佛罗里达州州长，杰布·布什已经成功登上了他所称的“塔拉哈西之巅”；既已开始竞选总统，他还要登上“华盛顿之巅”。本周一，他已就如何开展竞选提出了一些初步想法，其中某些胜过另一些。 The good news is that he wants to start by reducing the size of the bureaucratic Everest. “You can have a fast-expanding economy or you can have a fast expanding government, but you can’t have both,” he said in a speech at Florida State University. 好消息是，他打算从裁减巨如珠峰的官僚机构入手。在佛罗里达州州立大学的一次演讲中他说道：“你要么有个迅速扩张的经济，要么有个迅速扩张的政府，但你不可能两者兼得。” His best idea would freeze the federal workforce and then reduce it by 10% over four years through attrition. In particular he proposes a “three-out, one-in” rule—one new hire for every three who leave. 杰布·布什最好的主意是，冻结现有的联邦政府雇员规模，并于之后四年内逐渐削减10%的雇员数量。特别是，他提出了“三出一进”则——每三人离职才可招募一位新员工。 According to the White House budget office historical tables, that would shrink federal civilian employment by some 210,000 from the 2.114 million full-time equivalent (FTE) positions in the executive branch in 2015. As recently as 2008 there were 1.875 million FTEs. 根据白宫预算办公室以往的数据可知，杰布·布什的政策，将使2015年行政部门中的联邦非军事雇员数量，从目前的211.4万人（按全职工时折算）缩减约21万人。晚至2008年，该数字还仅为曾为187.5万FTEs。【译注：FTE，full-time equivalent，一种人力资源统计指标，意为按全职工时折算后的雇员人数，假如全职工时为8小时，那么每天工作2小时兼职雇员，便计为0.25个FTE。】 For skeptics who doubt this is possible, Mr. Bush pointed to his record in Florida, where the state workforce fell by 11% over his eight years despite a rising state population. He can also point to Journal contributor and NYU scholar Paul Light, who has described the “inefficiency and bloat” of more than 10,000 senior executives “who occupy more than 60 layers of management just at the top” of the Washington organization chart. Ten percent may be shooting too low. 面对那些怀疑这是否可能做到的质疑者，他拿出了自己在佛州的记录，在其执政的8年内，尽管人口增长，该州雇员仍缩减了11%。他还援引了杂志撰稿人、纽约大学学者Paul Light的论点，后者将1万多资深行政官员的低效与臃肿形容为“这些人占据了管理部门的60层，层层积压在华盛顿组织结构图的上端”。或许砍去10%只嫌太少。 Mr. Bush also wants a line-item veto along the lines Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan has proposed. This is a hardy perennial, but it would at the margin enhance the power of a President who wants to control spending (unlike the current one). 布什先生还提倡一种类似威斯康星州共和党人保罗·瑞安（Paul Ryan）提出的部分否决权【译注：美国总统只有完全认可或完全否决某一立法的权力。最近一次鲜有例外发生在克林顿任上，但仅过了两年，最高法院便裁定部分否决权违宪。】这是个屡屡被提出的经年老话题了，不过它确可在边际上增强一位有意控制支出的总统的权力（而非像在任这位）。 “If we reform how government works,” Mr. Bush said, “and build capacity for people to achieve earned success by our very nature we’ll all become conservatives because the demands on government will subside.” “如果我们能改革政府的工作方式，”布什先生说，“为人民创造一个靠自己双手劳动赢得成功的环境，那么我们会统统成为保守派，因为我们将不再有求于政府。” Mr. Bush’s other ideas are more populist gimmicks than genuine reforms. Take his pitch to dock the pay of Senators and Congressmen when they don’t show up for votes. We’d be happier if a couple hundred of them didn’t show up at all. But in any case Mr. Bush couldn’t do this without Congress’s consent, and he’d need their votes to get more important things done. Americans can always throw the bums out during elections. 至于布什先生的其他想法，与其说真正的改革，倒像是亲民的噱头。比如呼吁在参议员和众议员不出席投票时扣他们工资的提案。其实要是有几百位议员不出席投票，我们会更开心。但无论如何，布什先生不可能未经国会同意就这么做，他需要他们的选票来完成更重要的事情。而且在选举期间，美国人总是可以把那些尸位素餐的人给拉下马。 Even worse is Mr. Bush’s call for a six-year ban on lobbying for former members of the House and Senate, as well as expanding the definition of lobbyist so more people come under its restrictions. This buys into the liberal narrative that the problem in Washington is too many lobbyists. 更糟糕的是，布什先生提出的对卸任国会议员施加在6年内禁止游说的禁令，并且扩大说客的定义，使得更多人被该禁令所约束。如此便投合了自由派的说法，即华盛顿的问题是说客太多。 Businesses have no choice but to lobby a government that can cripple them with a single new regulation. The First Amendment also gives all Americans the right “to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.” 生意人游说政府实属情非得已，毕竟政府只需一条新管制法规即可让他们遭殃。而且第一宪法修正案也给予了所有美国公民“就其委屈苦衷向政府请愿申诉”的权利。 The real problem is the opportunities for corruption and special dealing that a too-large government provides. Every new regulation or twist of the tax code is an opening for some powerful Member to assist the powerful. But the solution is to reduce the size and scope of the regulatory state and to reform the tax code. Mr. Bush says he plans to propose both regulatory and tax reforms, and those will do more to reduce the influence of lobbyists than will restrictions on lobbyists that will be evaded in any case. 真正的问题在于一个过于庞大的政府创造了腐败及特殊对待的机会。每次新设管制、每次税法繁琐化，都为一些权势人物去支援另一些权势人物创造了新契机。但解决办法是减少政府管制的规模和范围，并改革税法。布什先生说他计划提出管制和税收两方面兼有的改革，比起用禁令规限说客，这些改革才更能缩减他们的影响，而禁令总是会被绕过。 One other benefit of a government that tries to do fewer things with fewer people: It might be able to launch a website without crashing. 一个致力于雇更少人、做更少事的政府，将带来的另一个好处：它或许有能力建成一个不会崩溃的网站了。【编注：这句似乎在嘲讽联邦政府专为奥巴马医保建立的网站，该网站花了大价钱，却故障频频。】 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Canada Cuts Down On Red Tape. Could It Work In The U.S.? 加拿大精简繁规缛章，美国行吗？ 作者：Uri Berliner @2015-7-25 译者：@苏格底柏德図         校对：晓舸 (@ShawXG) 来源：NPR 网址：http://www.npr.org/2015/05/26/409671996/canada-cuts-down-on-red-tape-could-it-work-in-the-u-s Canada says it's the first country with a law that eliminates one regulation for every new measure that's adopted. The One-for-One Rule is designed to ease the burden on businesses. 加拿大宣称自己是世界上第一个采纳“一换一”规则的国家，这项法律规则要求：每出台一项新的监管措施，必须相应的排除一条旧的。此项规则旨在减轻企业的负担。 RENEE MONTAGNE, HOST:   In Canada, the government has figured out a surefire way to slash red tape with a law that eliminates one regulation for every new one that's created. The One-For-One Rule was adopted last month in a nice Canadian way, without political warfare. NPR's Uri Berliner reports. 主持人，蕾妮·蒙塔：在加拿大，政府想出了一种削减繁杂监管规章的可靠办法，为每项新出台的监管措施削减掉一项旧的。上个月，“一换一”规则以一种加拿大人特有的优雅方式而被采纳，没有引发政治纷争。 URI BERLINER, BYLINE: The story starts in 2001 in Canada's beautiful west coast province of British Columbia. Laura Jones lives there, in Vancouver. She's with the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. And she says back then, the economy of British Columbia was a mess, partly because there were so many time-consuming regulations. And she says some of them were pretty dumb. 文章署名，乌利·贝陵尔：这事情始于加拿大美丽的西海岸，不列颠哥伦比亚省。劳拉·琼斯（Laura Jones）住在该省的温哥华市，就职于加拿大独立商业联盟（Canadian Federation of Independent Business）。她说，回想之前，不列颠哥伦比亚省的经济状况十分混乱，部分原因是有许多浪费时间的监管制度上。她认为其中一些监管实在愚蠢。 LAURA JONES: Forest companies were told what size nails they had to use the build a bridge. Restaurants were told what size televisions they could have in their establishments. Kids even were affected. They were being told they needed two permits to show a tadpole in their classroom at show and tell. 劳拉·琼斯：林业公司必须使用规定型号的钉子来造桥。旅店必须在店内摆设规定型号的电视机。甚至连孩子也难逃影响，他们必须先取得两项许可，才能在教室里上展示讲解课的时候向同学展示蝌蚪。 BERLINER: So the incoming administration in British Columbia said enough is enough. For every new rule that becomes law, two existing ones would have to go. And Laura Jones says it's worked. In British Columbia, regulation has been reduced by 40 percent. She says small business has benefited. 乌利·贝陵尔：所以不列颠哥伦比亚省新上任的政府决定，真是够了，不能再这么下去了。凡是新出台法律规则，都要相应的减少两条现有规则。劳拉·琼斯说这个办法效果非常好。不列颠哥伦比亚省现在已经有40%的监管项目被取消。她表示该省的小企业已因此而受益。 JONES: And there's been very little to no outcry about cutting into rules that are important to protect human health, safety and the environment. 劳拉·琼斯：然而在削减关乎人类健康、安全和环境的监管条目的事情上，总是会引来强烈抗议。 BERLINER: Eventually, British Columbia dialed it back to one for one, and that became the model for the entire country. For two years, one for one has been a federal policy, part of a broader attack on red tape. To give the effort credibility, the savings from eliminating regulations couldn't just be assumed. They had to be quantified. Tony Clement is a cabinet minister with Canada's ruling Conservative Party. 乌利·贝陵尔：最终，政府退而求其次，从“一换二”退至“一换一”规则，后者成了整个加拿大的榜样。经过两年之后，“一换一”已经成了一项联邦政策，这是对抗政府繁杂监管的一个重要力量。为了赋予这项规则以可信度，通过削减监管项目而节省花费这件事不能仅仅只是一个假设，它们必须得到量化。托尼·克莱门托是现执政加拿大的保守党内阁大臣。 TONY CLEMENT: We're trying to measure and benchmark our success. And in that way, it's a serious exercise, not just a - you know, a jingoistic political exercise. 托尼·克莱门托：我们正在尝试度量和评测我们所取得的成功。那是一种非常认真严肃的行动，而不是那种以势压人的政治运动。 BERLINER: Clement says small businesses are logging less time on paperwork - a reduction of hundreds of thousands of hours so far. Nineteen federal regulations have been eliminated, but the law won't allow cuts to protections for health, safety and the environment. That took any ideological edge off the act. When Canada's House of Commons voted to make the policy an actual law, the bill passed overwhelmingly. 乌利·贝陵尔：克莱门托说，小企业浪费在文书上的时间减少了——迄今已减少了上万小时。19条联邦监管规章已经被取消，但同时法律又规定不允许削减有关保护健康、安全和环境的监管。这条规定缓解了所有意识形态上的冲突。加拿大下院对是否将“一换一”规则写入法律进行了投票，结果以压倒性多数获得通过。 I saw that the vote was 245 to one. 我看到投票结果是245比1. CLEMENT: Yes, the Green Party was a bit skeptical. 托尼·克莱门托：是的，绿党对这项措施还是有点疑虑。 BERLINER: So even the socialists backed it? 乌利·贝陵尔：所以甚至社会主义者们也同意了这项政策？ CLEMENT: They did indeed. Yeah. In fact, we're having a tussle with them as we move towards our election as to who is a better spokesperson for small business in Canada. 托尼·克莱门托：是的，确实。实际上，在临近选举前，我们跟他们就谁才是加拿大中小企业的更好代言人还有过一些争吵。 BERLINER: Here in the States, there is, of course, plenty of policy debate about the right level of regulation. Business groups say compliance with regulation cost the U.S. economy $2 trillion a year. Environmental, consumer and labor groups say these are mostly vital protections, and they often push for more of them. Laura Jones says that's a debate the public largely ignores. 乌利·贝陵尔：在美国，有很多关于政府监管强度是否合适的政治争论。工商业团体认为监管制度使得美国经济每年付出2万亿美金的代价。环境组织，消费者组织和劳工组织则表示这些监管中的大部分非常重要，他们还经常强烈要求出台更多的监管制度。劳拉·琼斯说，公众在很大程度上忽视了这些争论。 JONES: And that's what we're trying to change in Canada. And I think Canada, in this area, is ironically going to be a very good model for the U.S. 劳拉·琼斯：而在加拿大，这正是我们设法改变的状况。而我觉得，在这个领域，加拿大会颇具讽刺意味地成为美国的一个好榜样。 PAUL LIGHT: I think there's a reason why we've never used it, which is that it's a most impossible to implement without offending Congress. 保罗·莱特：我认为有一个原因导致了我们一直没有采纳“一换一”这样的规则，那就是这么做无疑会触怒国会。 BERLINER: That's Paul Light. He's a professor of public service at NYU, and he's been watching efforts to pare back bureaucracy since the 1980s. He says regulations don't get created without a legitimate reason. They reflect the desires of elected leaders. 乌利·贝陵尔：这位是保罗·莱特（Paul Light）。他是纽约大学公共服务专业的教授，他从1980年代就开始密切关注精简官僚机构的问题。他说，监管制度不会没正当理由就被制定出来。这些监管反映了民选领导人的欲望。 LIGHT: I get the pressure from business - and small businesses, in particular - to reduce red tape. 保罗·莱特：我感受到了来自企业，尤其是中小企业的，希望削减政府监管条目的压力。 BERLINER: But he says there's a better way to do it. Instead of a one-for-one swap, write smarter and more careful regulations. Uri Berliner, NPR News. 乌利·贝陵尔：但是他表示还有一个更好的办法，不一定要“一换一”，我们可以制订更精巧和审慎的监管条文。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Prostitution and the internet: More bang for your buck 卖春和互联网：花钱玩得更爽 作者：The Economist @ 2014-8-9 译者：Who视之 校对: 乘风（@你在何地-sxy），小册子（@昵称被抢的小册子） 来源：《经济学人》（The Economist） 网址：http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21611074-how-new-technology-shaking-up-oldest-business-more-bang-your-buck How new technology is shaking up the oldest business 新科技在如何改变这个最古老的行当 WARNING: We rarely feel the need to alert readers to explicit content. But our discussion of the online sex trade requires frank language, and some may find the topic distasteful. 警告: 我们极少会觉得有需要提醒读者，文章内容包含露骨的描写。但我们讨论网上性交易时需要用很直白的语言，因此这个题材可能会令有些人感到不适。 FOR those seeking commercial sex in Berlin, Peppr, a new app, makes life easy. Type in a location and up pops a list of the nearest prostitutes, along with pictures, prices and physical particulars. Results can be filtered, and users can arrange a session for a €5-10 ($6.50-13) booking fee. It plans to expand to more cities. 对于那些在柏林找乐子的人来说，一个叫Peppr的新款手机应用让事情变得容易多了。只要输入一个地址，附近妓女的名单、照片、价钱、身体特征等信息就都跳了出来。用户可以对结果进行筛选，安排一次服务只需要花5-10欧（合6.5-13美元）的预约费。这个应用还将被推广到了更多城市。 Peppr can operate openly since prostitution, and the advertising of prostitution, are both legal in Germany. But even where they are not, the internet is transforming the sex trade. Prostitutes and punters have always struggled to find each other, and to find out what they want to know before pairing off. 娼妓和与之相关的广告在德国都是合法的，因此Peppr可以光明正大地运作。但即便在这两样事情都不合法的地方，互联网也正在改变性产业。自古以来，妓女和嫖客都想搭上线，并想在成交之前对对方有所了解，可这事并不容易。 Phone-box “tart cards” for blonde bombshells and leggy señoritas could only catch so many eyes. Customers knew little about the nature and quality of the services on offer. Personal recommendations, though helpful, were awkward to come by. Sex workers did not know what risks they were taking on with clients. 电话亭里金发大波妹和长腿妹的小广告，的确足以吸引眼球，但顾客对其中的服务内容和质量却知之甚少。私下推荐靠谱倒是靠谱，但问题是有点难为情。另一方面，性工作者也不知道接客时将会面对什么风险。 Now specialist websites and apps are allowing information to flow between buyer and seller, making it easier to strike mutually satisfactory deals. The sex trade is becoming easier to enter and safer to work in: prostitutes can warn each other about violent clients, and do background and health checks before taking a booking. Personal web pages allow them to advertise and arrange meetings online; their clients’ feedback on review sites helps others to proceed with confidence. 现在专业网站和手机应用使得买卖双方的信息流动了起来，要达成双方满意的买卖就容易多了。做性交易现在变得越来越容易，提供性服务也越来越安全：妓女们可以互相提醒注意哪些客户有暴力倾向，在接客之前做好背景调查和卫生核查。她们可以在个人网页上打广告和安排见面。客人在点评网站上的反馈则可以令其他客人在和她们接洽时更有把握。 Even in places such as America, where prostitution and its facilitation are illegal everywhere except Nevada, the marketing and arrangement of commercial sex is moving online. To get round the laws, web servers are placed abroad; site-owners and users hide behind pseudonyms; and prominently placed legalese frames the purpose of sites as “entertainment” and their content as “fiction”. 即使在像美国这种卖淫和协助卖淫皆属非法的地方（内华达除外），性服务的营销和接洽也正在移师网上。为了规避法律，服务器都放在了国外，网站所有者和使用者都使用假名，醒目的法律用语把网站的宗旨包装为“娱乐”，说里面的内容属于“虚构”。 The shift online is casting light on parts of the sex industry that have long lurked in the shadows. Streetwalkers have always attracted the lion’s share of attention from policymakers and researchers because they ply their trade in public places. They are more bothersome for everyone else—and, because they are the most vulnerable, more likely to come to the attention of the police and of social or health workers. 性产业转向互联网令它长期不为人知的一些面相曝光了。站街流莺一直是政策制定者和社会研究者关注的重点，因为她们在公共场合揽客。这样比较惹众人烦，而且因为她们最容易受到伤害，因而更容易被警察、社工和卫生工作者所关注。 But in many rich countries they are a minority of all sex workers; just 10-20% in America, estimates Ronald Weitzer, a sociologist at George Washington University. 但是在很多富裕国家，他们只是性工作者中的少数。乔治华盛顿大学的社会学家Ronald Weitzer估计，这种类型在美国只占全部性工作者的10-20%。 The wealth of data available online means it is now possible to analyse this larger and less examined part of the commercial-sex market: prostitution that happens indoors. It turns out to be surprisingly similar to other service industries. Prostitutes’ personal characteristics and the services they offer influence the prices they charge; niche services attract a premium; and the internet is making it easier to work flexible hours and to forgo a middleman. 互联网上数据的日益丰富，意味着人们现在可以分析在性产业中占较大比例但以往很少被研究的那部分：室内卖春活动。研究结果表明它与其他服务业惊人地相似。妓女的个人特点和服务内容影响服务价格，小众服务能要高价，互联网使得工作时间更灵活，皮条客也不再需要了。 Websites such as AdultWork allow prostitutes, both those working independently and those who work through agencies and brothels, to create profiles through which customers can contact them. They can upload detailed information about themselves, the range of services they provide, and the rates they charge. Clients can browse by age, bust or dress size, ethnicity, sexual orientation or location. 单干的妓女和通过经纪公司和妓院接客的妓女，如今都可以在像AdultWork这样的网站上制作发布个人简介，方便顾客联系。她们可以上传自己的详细信息，包括服务范围和收费标准。顾客则可以按年龄、胸围、体型、种族、性取向或所在位置搜索浏览。 Other websites garner information from clients, who upload reviews of the prostitutes they have visited with details of the services offered, prices paid and descriptions of the encounters. On PunterNet, a British site, clients describe the premises, the encounter and the sex worker, and choose whether to recommend her. 其他网站则从顾客端搜集信息，这些顾客点评他们光顾过的妓女，包括服务内容，所付价钱，以及个中遭遇。在英国网站PunterNet上，客户描述房间环境、过程经历，以及性工作者本人，并可以表态是否推荐此人。 Such write-ups have enabled her to build a personal brand, says one English escort, Michelle (like many names in this article, a pseudonym), and to attract the clients most likely to appreciate what she offers. 一位英国陪游女郎Michelle（和本文其他许多名字一样，这是个化名）说，顾客的点评已帮她建立起个人品牌，并且能吸引到那些喜欢她这种服务类型的客人。 TrickAdvisor We have analysed 190,000 profiles of sex workers on an international review site. (Since it is active in America, it was not willing to be identified for this article. A disclaimer on the site says the contents are fictional; we make the assumption that they are informative all the same.) Each profile includes customers’ reviews of the worker’s physical characteristics, the services they offer and the price they charge. 我们分析了一个国际性点评网站上的19万份性工作者简介（因为这网站在美国运作，所以不愿意因本文暴露身份。网站上的免责声明说其内容是虚构的，但我们假设这些简介的信息仍然具有参考价值）。每份简介都包括顾客对工作者的身体特征、服务项目和要价的点评。 The data go back as far as 1999. For each individual we have used the most recent information available, with prices corrected for inflation. Some of those featured may appear under more than one name, or also work through agencies. The data cover 84 cities in 12 countries, with the biggest number of workers being in America and most of the rest in big cities in other rich countries. As this site features only women, our analysis excludes male prostitutes (perhaps a fifth of the commercial-sex workforce). Almost all of those leaving reviews are men. 资料最早可以追溯到1999年。我们使用每位性工作者的最新信息，并对价格进行了调整以消除通胀影响。有些人可能使用了不只一个名字，或者也通过经纪公司工作。数据涵盖了12个国家的84个城市，最多的在美国，其余多数在其他富裕国家的大城市里。因为这网站只提供女性的信息，我们的分析排除了男妓（男妓大概占性工作者的五分之一）。几乎所有留下点评的顾客都是男性。 The most striking trend our analysis reveals is a drop in the average hourly rate of a prostitute in recent years (see chart 1). One reason is surely the downturn that followed the 2007-08 financial crisis. Even prostitutes working in places that escaped the worst effects have been hit. 我们的分析表明，最明显的趋势是近年来妓女每小时的收费下降了（图表一）。2007-08年金融危机以后经济不景气肯定是其中的一个原因。但即使是在受金融危机打击不那么严重的地方，卖春生意也受到了影响。 Vanessa, a part-time escort in southern England, finds that weeks can go by without her phone ringing. Men see buying sex as a luxury, she says, and with the price of necessities rising it is one they are cutting back on. Even when she offers discounts to whip up interest, clients are scarcer than they were. 英格兰南部一个叫Vanessa的业余陪游女郎发现有时一连好几周都无人问津。她说，男人视招妓为奢侈消费，随着必需品价格上升，这就是他们要缩减开支的那部分消费。即使她提供折扣以提高吸引力，顾客还是少了。 In places where the job market slumped, the effect is more marked (whether prostitution is legal may affect prices, too, but the wide variation between American cities shows that this is not the only factor). The cost of an hour with an escort in Cleveland, Ohio, where unemployment peaked at 12.5% in 2010, has tumbled. 在就业市场急剧恶化的地方，影响更加明显（娼妓业是否合法也会影响价格，但美国不同城市之间的巨大差异说明这不是唯一因素）。在俄亥俄州的克利夫兰（Cleveland, Ohio），2010年失业率高达12.5%，陪游女郎的小时收费也随之大跌。 【图表1】 Large-scale migration is another reason prices are falling. Big, rich cities are magnets for immigrants of all professions, including sex workers. Nick Mai of London Metropolitan University has studied foreign sex workers in Britain. He has found that as they integrate and get used to the local cost-of-living, their rates tend to rise. But where the inward flow is unceasing, or where the market was previously very closed, immigrants can push prices down. 大规模人口迁徙也会促使价格下跌。大型、富裕的城市吸引着从事各行业的移民，包括性工作者。伦敦都会大学（London Metropolitan University）的Nick Mai研究过英国的外籍性工作者。他发现，当她们融入当地生活，适应了当地的生活成本后，她们的价格就趋于上升。但在人口不断流入的地方，或在当地市场先前非常封闭的地方，移民涌入就会把价格拉低。 Since the European Union enlarged to include poorer eastern European countries, workers of every sort have poured into their richer neighbours. By all accounts prices have been dropping in Germany as a result of the arrival of new, poor migrants, says Rebecca Pates of the University of Leipzig. 自从欧盟扩张到几个相对贫穷的东欧国家，那里各行各业的劳动力就涌进了比他们富裕的邻国。莱比锡大学（University of Leipzig）的Rebecca Pates说，大家都觉得，自从这些贫穷新移民来了以后，德国的物价就一直在下降。 Sally, a semi-retired British escort who runs a flat in the west of England where a few “mature” women sell sex, says English girls are struggling to find work: there are too many eastern European ones willing to accept less. 半退休的英国应召女Sally在英格兰西部经营着一套公寓，供一些“熟女”在里头卖春，她说英国女孩正在为找工作而挣扎，因为太多东欧女孩少拿些钱也愿意干。 Twenty years ago most prostitutes in Norway were locals who all aimed to charge about the same, says May-Len Skilbrei, a sociologist at Oslo University. Today, with growing numbers of sex workers from the Baltic states and central Europe, as well as Nigerians and Thais, such unofficial price controls are harder to sustain. 奥斯陆大学（Oslo University）的社会学家May-Len Skilbrei说, 20年前挪威的大部分妓女都是本地人，她们要价都差不多。如今来自波罗的海国家和中欧的性工作者越来越多，再加上还有尼日利亚和泰国人，这种非正式的价格协定就变得难以维持。 Inexperience is another reason newcomers to prostitution may underprice themselves, at least at first. Maxine Doogan, an American prostitute and founder of the Erotic Service Providers Union, a lobby group, learnt her trade from a woman who worked for years in a brothel in Nevada, the only American state where prostitution is legal. The older woman taught her what to regard as standard or extra, and how much to charge. 缺少经验也是娼妓业新手要价低的原因之一，至少一开始是这样。美国妓女Maxine Doogan创立了游说团体“色情服务提供者联盟”（the Erotic Service Providers Union）。她从一个在内华达某妓院工作多年的女人那里学会了如何混这一行（内华达是美国唯一娼妓业合法的州）。那个年长的女人教她什么是标准服务，什么是额外服务，如何要价。 When Ms. Doogan started out, in 1988, standard services (vaginal sex and fellatio) cost $200 an hour, the equivalent of $395 today. But some of those starting out now still charge $200, she says, or offer extra services, including risky ones such as oral sex without a condom, without charging an appropriate premium. 1988年Doogan入行的时候，标准服务（阴道性交和口交）的价格是每小时200美元，相当于今天的395美元。但是她说，现在一些新入行者要价仍然只有200美元，或者提供不另收费的额外服务，包括风险很大的不带套口交。 The shift online has probably boosted supply by drawing more locals into the sex trade, too. More attractive and better-educated women, whose marital and job prospects are therefore better, are more likely to consider sex work if it is arranged online. Indoor sex work is safer than streetwalking, and the risk of arrest is lower. 互联网很可能吸引了更多的本地人进入性产业，这也增加了供应。更有吸引力，受教育程度更高的女人，婚姻和工作的前景会好些，如果接客可以通过互联网安排，这些人考虑从事性工作的可能性就会增加。安坐室内的性工作比站街要安全，被逮捕的风险也更小。 Rented flats or hotel rooms are more discreet than brothels, so family and friends are less likely to identify the new source of income. Anonymity becomes a possibility, which lessens the fear of stigma. Creating an online profile separates the decision to take up the work from parading for punters. 租个公寓或者酒店房间比在妓院里工作要低调，因此创收也不容易被家人和朋友发现。既然可以隐姓埋名，她们就不那么担心名誉扫地。由于可以在线上创立个人简介，干这一行再也不用非得抛头露脸去拉客了。 Meanwhile, broader social change may be reducing demand—and thus, prices. Free, no-strings-attached sex is far easier to find than in the past. Apps such as Tinder facilitate speedy hookups; websites such as Ashley Madison and Illicit Encounters, adulterous ones. Greater acceptance of premarital intercourse and easier divorce mean fewer frustrated single and married men turning to prostitutes. 与此同时，广泛的社会变革可能会降低需求，因而降低价格。寻找免费而又无牵扯的性爱（俗称援交或约炮）比以前容易多了。Tinder这样的手机应用让勾搭变得又快又容易。Ashley Madison 和Illicit Encounters这样的网站就专注于促进婚外私通活动。婚前性行为变得更为人接受，离婚也更容易，这些都意味着招妓的失意单身男人和已婚男人会更少。 Dearer for johns 卖个好价钱 Our analysis shows how a prostitute’s hourly rate varies according to the nature of the services she provides and her reported physical characteristics. As in other bits of the economy, clients who seek niche services must pay more. Sex workers who offer anal sex or spanking earn on average $25 or $50 more per hour, respectively (see chart 2). Those who will accept two male clients at once or do threesomes with another woman command a larger premium. 我们的分析显示出，妓女的小时收费会如何随其服务内容不同和她所披露身体特征的不同而变化。和其它生意一样，客人需要小众服务就必须多付费。接受肛交或扇打的性工作者平均每小时分别多赚25和50美元（图表2）。那些愿意接受二龙一凤，或者加上另一位女性和男客人玩一龙二凤的，都会索价更高。 【图表2】 Appearance matters a great deal. The customers who reported encounters to the website we analysed clearly value the stereotypical features of Western beauty: women they describe as slim but not scrawny, or as having long blonde hair or full breasts, can charge the highest hourly rates (see chart 3). Hair that is bleached too unconvincingly to be described as blonde attracts a lower premium, but is still more marketable than any other colour. 外表非常重要。在我们研究的那个网站上，描述其招妓经历的顾客明显喜欢具有典型西方特色的美女：长得苗条但不干巴的，金色长发的，或者胸部丰满的，每小时要价是最高的（见图表3）。染得特别不自然的金发女，收费要低一些，但还是比其它发色的更有市场。 For those not naturally well endowed, breast implants may make economic sense: going from flat-chested to a D-cup increases hourly rates by approximately $40, meaning that at a typical price of $3,700, surgery could pay for itself after around 90 hours. The 12% share of women featured on the site who are described both as athletic, slim or thin, and as being at least a D-cup, suggests that quite a few have already taken this route. 对于天资不太好的妓女来说，隆胸可能真是划算的投资：从平胸变成D罩杯，每小时要价可以增加差不多40美元。就是说，隆胸手术一般要花的3700美元，接客90小时就可以赚回来了。网站上12%的女性宣称身材健美，苗条或精瘦，胸围至少D罩杯，似乎说明这已是大势所趋。 【图表3】 A prostitute’s rates also vary according to her ethnicity and nationality. What attracts a premium in one place can attract a penalty in another. According to our analysis, in four big American cities and London, black women earn less than white ones (see chart 4). 妓女的收费也因种族和国籍而有所不同。在一个地方的抢手货，换个地方可能就乏人问津。据我们的分析，在四个美国大城市和伦敦，黑人女性就比白人女性赚的少（图表4） 【图表4】 We had too few data from other cities for a reliable breakdown by ethnicity. But Christine Chin of the American University in Washington, DC, has studied high-end transnational prostitutes in several countries. In Kuala Lumpur, she found, black women command very high rates and in Singapore, Vietnamese ones do. In Dubai, European women earn the most. What counts as exotic and therefore desirable varies from place to place, and depends on many factors, such as population flows. 有关其他城市，我们掌握的数据太少，不足以支撑基于种族的可靠分析。但位于华盛顿特区的美利坚大学（American University）的Christine Chin曾研究过几个国家的高端跨国妓女。她发现，在吉隆坡，要数黑人收费高，而在新加坡，收费高的是越南人。而在迪拜，欧洲女人挣得最多。什么是引人入胜的异国情调，各地标准不同，受到诸如人口流动等很多因素的影响。 Local markets have other quirks. According to the site we analysed, an hour with an escort in Tokyo is a bargain compared with one in London or New York. Yet a cost-of-living index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit, our sister organisation, suggests that Tokyo is the most expensive city overall of the three. 各地市场均有其本地特色。据我们所研究的网站显示，在东京雇一个小时的陪游，比在伦敦和纽约要划算得多。但按我们兄弟单位Economist Intelligence Unit制作的生活成本指数，东京却是这三个城市中物价最高的。 The apparent anomaly may be because escorts who appear on an English-language review site mostly cater to foreigners, who are not offered the more unusual—and expensive—services Japanese prostitutes provide for locals. These include the bubble baths and highly technical massages of Sopurando (“Soapland”), a red-light district in Tokyo, which can cost ¥60,000 ($600) for a session and involve intercourse (although that is not advertised). 这一看似矛盾的现象，其原因可能是，在英文网站上点评的绝大多数是外国人，他们没有享受到日本妓女提供给本地客户的昂贵特色服务，比如泡泡浴和技巧高超的Sopurando式（即Soapland）按摩。Sopurando是东京的一个红灯区，Sopurando式按摩是当地的招牌服务，每次收费6万日元（折合600美元），当中还包含性交服务（虽然广告中并未明言）。 A degree appears to raise earnings in the sex industry just as it does in the wider labour market. A study by Scott Cunningham of Baylor University and Todd Kendall of Compass Lexecon, a consultancy, shows that among prostitutes who worked during a given week, graduates earned on average 31% more than non-graduates. 和一般的劳动力市场一样，拥有学位似乎能提高性工作者的收入。贝勒大学（Baylor University）的Scott Cunningham与咨询公司Compass Lexecon的Todd Kendall合作的一项研究表明，大学毕业的妓女比起没有大学学位的来，每周平均能多赚31%。 More lucrative working patterns rather than higher hourly rates explained the difference. Although sex workers with degrees are less likely to work than others in any given week (suggesting that they are more likely to regard prostitution as a sideline), when they do work they see more clients and for longer. Their clients tend to be older men who seek longer sessions and intimacy, rather than a brief encounter. 这个差异源于有利可图的工作方式，而非更高的每小时费率。尽管有学位的性工作者开工较少（说明他们更可能把卖淫作为副业），但她们一旦开工，就会接更多的顾客，收费时间也更长。她们的顾客通常年纪较大，更喜欢花长时间培养亲密感，而不是直奔主题草草了事。 How much brothels and massage parlours use the internet depends on local laws. America’s legal restrictions mean that they keep a low profile, both offline and online. In Britain, where brothels are illegal though prostitution is not, massage parlours advertise the rotas and prices of their workers online but are coy about the services rendered. By contrast Paradise, a mega-brothel in Germany, boasts a frank and informative website. 妓院和按摩院利用互联网的程度，取决于当地法律。美国的法律限制意味着做这些生意要低调，线上线下都是如此。在英国经营妓院是违法的，但卖淫不违法，按摩院会在网上宣传服务者的名单和价格，但对服务内容含糊其辞。相比之下，德国大型妓院Paradise的网站就非常直白露骨，信息很丰富。 But it is independent sex workers for whom the internet makes the biggest difference. Mr Cunningham has tracked the number of sex workers in American cities on one review site. In the decade to 2008, during which online advertising for commercial sex took off, the share describing themselves as independent grew. 受互联网影响最大的，要数单干的性工作者。Cunningham先生跟踪记录了一个点评网站上显示的美国城市性工作者数量。在2008年之前的十年里，网上性交易广告发展蓬勃，把自己归为单干一类的比例增长了。 For prostitutes, the internet fulfils many of the functions of a workplace. It is a “break-room and hiring hall”, says Melissa Gira Grant, the author of “Playing the Whore: The Work of Sex Work”. Online forums replace the office water-cooler. Women exchange tips on dealing with the everyday challenges of sex work; a busy thread on one forum concerns which sheets stand up best to frequent washing. 对妓女来说，互联网发挥了工作场所的很多功能，这是个“休息室和会客大厅”，《当个妓女：性工作是干什么的》一书的作者Melissa Gira Grant如是说。网络论坛代替了办公室饮水机，女人们在这里交换生意经，讨论性工作每天要面对的挑战，有个长帖就讨论了什么床单最耐洗。 A mother in Scotland asks how other prostitutes juggle child care and selling sex, given that bookings are often made at short notice so babysitters are hard to arrange. Another contributor who is thinking of having children asks how much other women saved before taking time off to have a baby, and whether the new calls on their time meant they earned less after giving birth. One reply points out that prostitution is easier than many other jobs to combine with motherhood: it pays well enough to cover child-care costs, and can be fitted around school holidays, plays and sports days, and children’s illnesses. 一位在苏格兰的母亲问其他妓女如何兼顾照料孩子和卖春，因为生意经常是临时找上门的，很难在短时间内找到人来看孩子。另一位网友打算生孩子，问其他人在停工要孩子之前攒下了多少钱，有了孩子后要兼顾的事情多了，是否会赚少一些。一个回帖说，卖淫比很多其他工作更容易兼顾为人之母：一来收入不错，可以养得起孩子，二来工作时间可以根据学校假期、活动日和运动日以及照顾孩子疾恙等需要来调整。 Women who are considering entering the industry often seek advice online from those already in it before making up their minds. Melanie, who earns £65,000 ($109,000) a year, says that she is considering selling sex on the side for a few months to pay off debts. She asks which agency to use and how to get the highest rate. But she also worries that a stint selling sex would harm her future career. 考虑入行的女性常在网上寻求业内人士的建议，然后才做决定。Melanie一年挣65,000英镑 （合109,000美元），她说她正考虑以卖淫为副业，挣几个月的钱来还债。她问用哪家经纪公司比较好，如何能卖到最高的价钱。但她担心短期卖淫的记录可能影响将来的职场发展。 Experienced sex workers respond that anonymity will be easier to preserve if she works independently, rather than through an agency, and warn her that she is entering a crowded market. The stress of living a double life should not be underestimated, they caution, and it will not be easy money. 有经验的性工作者回复她说，相对于通过经纪公司接活，单干更容易匿名，还警告她这行现已人满为患。她们提醒她不要低估了双面生活的紧张压力，而且这一行赚钱并不容易。 Many of those contributing to such discussions hold other jobs, often part-time, and tout the merits of a steady source of additional income and something innocuous to put on a CV. Sarah says her escort work means she can pay for her daughter’s dance and music lessons, which would be unaffordable on just her “civvy job”. 很多参与讨论的人都有其他工作，这些工作经常是兼职性质，既能带来稳定的额外收入，同时在个人求职简历上也有正当职业可写。Sarah说她凭陪游生意就能支付她女儿的舞蹈和音乐课程费用，这些课程靠她的“良家职业”可付不起。 Some husbands and boyfriends know about their wives’ and girlfriends’ work, or even act as managers, drivers and security. Other women keep what they do a secret from those closest to them. 一些妓女的丈夫和男友知道她们在干什么，甚至还帮忙安排生意，开车接送，充当保镖。而另一些女人则对此秘而不宣，不让身边的亲友知道。 Advertising and booking clients online give prostitutes flexibility about where to work. They can “tour”, using their own home pages or profiles on specialist websites to advertise where they will be and when. In densely populated Britain, where prostitutes work in most places, tours allow those who normally serve small towns to visit cities crammed with potential customers. In Norway, says MsSkilbrei, prostitutes are concentrated in the main cities, so a tour is a chance to satisfy pent-up demand in small towns. 通过网上做广告和预约客人，妓女可以灵活选择工作地点。她们可以四处“巡回”，利用个人主页或专业网站上的个人简介公布自己将去哪里，何时有空。在人口密集的英国，妓女各地都有，而四处巡回可以让通常只在小镇提供服务的妓女前往客户集中的大城市。Skilbrei小姐说，在挪威，妓女都集中在大城市里，所以四处巡回可以满足小镇中长期积聚的满腔欲火。 The freelancers, part-timers and temps the internet is bringing to the sex trade are likely to help it absorb demand shocks. In 2008 the Republican and Democratic national conventions were held in Minneapolis and Denver respectively. Around 50,000 visitors flocked to each city. 互联网给性产业带来的自由职业者，兼职者和临时工，很可能有助于满足短期的需求暴涨。2008年共和民主两党的全国代表大会分别在明尼阿波利斯（Minneapolis）和丹佛（Denver）召开，两个城市都涌进了五万人。 Another study by Mr Cunningham and Mr Kendall found that the numbers of advertisements for sex on the now-defunct “erotic services” section of Craigslist, a classified-advertising site, were 41% higher in Minneapolis and 74% higher in Denver around the conventions than expected for those days of the week and times of year. Cunningham和 Kendall的另一个研究发现，在大会召开期间与往年同期相比，分类广告网站Craigslist上“色情服务”频道（现已关闭）中的广告，在Minneapolis增加了41%，在Denver增加了74%。 Health and safety 健康和安全 Sex work exposes those who do it to serious risks: of rape and other violence, and of sexually transmitted infections. But in this industry, like many others, the internet is making life easier. 性工作们者面对着许多重大风险，如强奸和其他暴力行为，以及通过性传播的疾病。但和其他行业一样，互联网让生活更容易些了。 Online forums allow prostitutes to share tips about how to stay safe and avoid tangling with the law. Some sites let them vouch for clients they have seen, improving other women’s risk assessments. 网络论坛让妓女们可以分享如何保证自己安全和避免惹上法律麻烦的窍门。一些网站可以让妓女指证她们见过的客户，以帮助其他妓女评估风险。 Others use services such as Roomservice 2000, another American site, where customers can pay for a background check to present to sex workers. Both sides benefit since the client can demonstrate trustworthiness without giving credit-card details or phone numbers to the prostitute. 还有些人使用诸如美国网站Roomservice 2000等提供的服务，他们可以花钱在上面做个背景调查，然后把调查结果提供给性工作者。这样双方都受益，因为客户不用提供自己的信用卡号码或电话号码给妓女，就可以证明自己值得信赖。 Sites that are active in restrictive jurisdictions must be careful not to fall foul of the law. In June the FBI shut down MyRedBook, an advertising-and-review site with a chat section for sex workers. Its owners face charges of money laundering and facilitating prostitution. American police sometimes use such sites to entrap prostitutes. 在限制多多的地域运作网站必须处处小心，以免违法。6月份联邦调查局就关掉了MyRedBook这个广告和点评网站，里面有一个性工作者聊天频道。网站主人如今面临洗钱和协助卖淫的指控。美国警察有时利用这些网站来诱捕妓女。 As they wise up to this, sex workers are using sites that allow them to verify clients’ identities to help them avoid stings. But that adds unnecessary hassle and distracts from what should be most important: staying safe. “Screening for cops [is now] the priority over screening for rapists, thieves, kidnappers,” says MsDoogan. 发现这一招之后，性工作者们就转而使用可以核实客人身份的网站以避开圈套。不过，提防钓鱼执法毕竟带来了不必要的麻烦，也分散了她们在首要问题上的注意力——那就是确保人身安全。“过滤掉条子现在成了头等要务，比过滤掉强奸犯，小偷和绑匪更要紧了。”Doogan女士说。 In Britain, Ugly Mugs runs an online database that prostitutes can use to check punters’ names and telephone numbers. In America the National Blacklist, a “deadbeat registry”, allows them to report men who are abusive or fail to pay. 在英国，妓女保护组织Ugly Mugs有个网上数据库，妓女可以用它来核查嫖客的姓名和电话号码。美国的National Blacklist是一个“赖账者名册”，它可以让妓女报告那些虐待妓女或者赖账的人。 Other women can check potential clients by names, telephone numbers, e-mail addresses and online aliases. Though not specifically aimed at sex workers, apps such as Healthvana make it easy for buyer and seller to share verified results in sexual-health tests. 其他女性可以用名字，电话号码，电邮地址和网上化名来核查潜在客户。还有像Healthvana这样的手机应用，尽管并非专为性工作者开发设计，仍可以让买卖双方更方便地交换性健康检查的结果。 Moving online means prostitutes need no longer rely on the usual intermediaries—brothels and agencies; pimps and madams—to drum up business or provide a venue. Some will decide to go it alone. 有了互联网，妓女不再需要依靠通常的中介——妓院和经纪人、皮条客和妈咪——来招揽客人或者提供场地了。一些人于是决定单干。 That means more independence, says Ana, a Spanish-American erotic masseuse who works in America and Britain. It also means more time, effort and expertise put into marketing. “You need a good website, lots of great pictures, you need to learn search-engine optimisation…it’s exhausting at times,” she says. Anna是个西班牙裔美国人，色情按摩师，在美国和英国工作。她说，单干会带来更多的自主权，但也意味着要投入更多的时间精力和专业知识到来做营销。“你需要有个像样的网站，很多漂亮的照片，你要学会如何优化搜索引擎……有时候真是挺累的”。 【街道照片】 Leaving the streets behind 再站街就落伍了 Others will still prefer to have a manager or assistant to take care of bookings and social media. “[Nowadays] you have people hitting you up on Twitter, Facebook, your website, and e-mail,” says MsDoogan. 另一些人仍然喜欢有个经理人或私人助理来打理预约和社交媒体这些事情。“如今有人在Twitter, Facebook, 你自己的个人网站和电邮里和你搭讪了”Doogan女士说。 Eros.com, an international listings site, allows prostitutes to tell clients whether they are currently available. But it means going online every hour or two, which is a chore. And online advertising is not cheap. MsDoogan used to spend 10% of her income on print adverts; she spends far more on online ones because with so many people advertising, returns are lower. Checking customers’ bona fides also takes time. Eros.com是个国际性的列表网站，可以让妓女们告诉客人她们是否有空。但这意味着每1个或2个小时就要上网更新，也是个麻烦。网上广告也不便宜。Doogan女士过去会把收入的10%花在纸媒上，现在她在网络广告上花的更多，因为很多人都在网上打广告，回报率变低了。核实客人的诚意也要花时间。 Meanwhile some traditional forms of prostitution are struggling. In the decade to 2010 the number of licensed sex clubs in the Netherlands fell by more than half, according to a study for Platform31, a Dutch research network. Much of the decline will have been offset by the growth of sex work advertised online, it reckons. 一些传统形式的卖淫则面临困境。根据荷兰的一个研究网络Platform31的研究，2010年之前的10年里，荷兰有执照的性俱乐部减少过半。该研究认为这边厢的萎缩很大部分由网上推广的性交易的增长所弥补。 Many prostitutes would rather work from private premises than in a club or for an agency, says SietskeAltink, one of the authors. Dutch municipalities often bar such work—but the option of finding clients online makes such rules harder to enforce. 该项研究的作者之一SietskeAltink说，很多妓女喜欢在私人场所从业，多于在俱乐部从业或通过经纪公司获得生意。荷兰市政当局经常禁止这种私人场所的性交易，但由于通过互联网就可以找到客户，这些法规更难以执行了。 That shift will make the sex industry harder for all governments to control or regulate, whether they seek to do so for pragmatic or moralistic reasons, or out of concern that not all those in the industry are there by their own free will. Buyers and sellers of sex who strike deals online are better hidden and more mobile than those who work in brothels, or from clubs or bars, points out Professor Weitzer of George Washington University. 这种转变，使得所有政府对性产业的控制和管理都变得更为困难，不管当局的做法是出于务实的考虑还是道德理由，又或者担心有些性工作者并非自愿从业。乔治华盛顿大学（George Washington University）的Weitzer教授指出，在互联网上敲定性交易，比在妓院、俱乐部、酒吧里交易更隐秘，更机动。 Ireland has banned the advertising of sexual services since 1994. The prohibition has achieved almost nothing, says Graham Ellison, a sociologist at Queen’s University in Belfast. Websites simply moved to other jurisdictions. The closure of those such as MyRedBook may prompt American ones to do the same; as they grow more specialised, the excuse that they merely host classified advertisements is wearing thin. 爱尔兰自1994年起禁止性服务广告。贝尔法斯特女王大学（Queen’s University in Belfast）的社会学家Graham Ellison说，这条禁令没达到任何效果，网站只要挪到别的司法管辖区就行了。关闭MyRedBook这样的网站可能也会促使美国网站搬离美国，因为这些网站越来越专业，说自己只是提供存放分类广告的主机服务这样的借口变得越来越牵强。 In the long term there will always be people who, for whatever reason, want to hire a prostitute rather than do without sex or pick up a partner in a bar. As paid-for sex becomes more readily and discreetly available online, more people will buy it. A greater awareness may develop that not all sex workers are the victims of exploitation. 长远来看，总会有人出于各种原因想要雇个妓女提供性服务，而不愿意独守空房或在酒吧里找个性伴。买春在网上变得越方便隐蔽，就会有越多的人会花这个钱。人们可能会越来越意识到，并不是所有的性工作者都是受剥削压榨的。 The very discretion—and the hidden nature of such prostitution—may also mean that the stigma persists. But, overall, sex workers will profit. The internet has disrupted many industries. The oldest one is no exception. 卖淫行为的低调和隐秘本质，可能意味着卖淫的羞耻感仍会持久存在。但总的来说，性工作者将会受益。互联网已经颠覆了很多行业，最古老的行业也不例外。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

THE SAYINGS OF JOHN MCCARTHY 约翰·麦卡锡语录 Vol.3 作者：John McCarthy 译者：斑马（@鹿兔马朦） 校对：慕白（@李凤阳他说） 来源：John McCarthy's Home Page，http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/sayings.html Clinton can say: in my industry 5/6 of the experienced men are unemployed. - jmc 1993 and earlier 克林顿可以说：在我这一行，六分之五的熟练男子都是无业的。 Oh, he's sincere all right. The question is: what is he sincere about? - jmc after 1986, perhaps about Gorbachev 哦，他是很真挚。但问题是：他真挚地想要干什么呢？——当时我可能是在说戈尔巴乔夫 His ambition is to be the spider in the World Wide Web. - jmc 1994 他的野心是成为互联网上的一只蜘蛛。 My hobby of not attending meetings about recycling saves more energy than your hobby of recycling. - jmc 1994 我不出席关于废物回收的会议这个习惯省下的能源，比你的废物回收习惯省下的还要多。 r.a.b. Needs an FFF - frequently flamed flames, each with a sampling of exchanges, culminating in an application of Godwin's law. [Godwin's law is that an exchange of flames ends when one poster compares his adversary with Adolf Hitler.] r.a.b.需要FFF（常被点燃的火焰），每个都有一份对话取样，并以援引戈德温法则而达到高潮。[戈德温法则是说，一旦一名发帖者将他的对手形容为希特勒，这次对话即告结束。]【译注：r.a.b.是rec.arts.books的缩写，麦卡锡在著名网络论坛Usenet的rec.arts.books版面非常活跃（据说本文语录中许多出自该版），还经常出席Palo Alto的r.a.b.读者定期聚餐。】 Never abandon a theory that explains something until you have a theory that explains more. - jmc 1991 没找到更有解释力的理论之前，不要放弃一个多少有些解释力的理论。 The gentlemen of the press smell blood. - jmc 1994 媒体的先生们嗅到了血腥味。 Do you wish to imprison the Native Americans in a re-invented primitive culture? - jmc 1994 你希望将美国原住民困锁在经过重新发明的原始文化中吗？ Would you vegetarians like a rule that food stamps cannot be used to purchase products containing meat? Would you vegans like to also forbid their use to purchase eggs, fish or milk products? Some years ago some of my fellow conservatives grumbled about the purchase of filet mignon with food stamps, but their motives were economic, and they were easily beaten down with the usual charges of heartlessness. Maybe you vegetarians would have better luck, since your hearts are pure. I mention this out of my customary helpfulness. - jmc 1994 你们素食者会希望有一条规章规定食品券不能用于购买含肉产品吗？你们吃素的人也希望食品券的作用仅限于购买鸡蛋、鱼或牛奶等产品吗？几年前，我的保守派朋友们因食品券被用于购买菲列牛排的事情而抱怨，但他们这样做是出于经济方面的动机，并且他们很轻松的被“毫无心肝”这种常见的指责所击倒了。也许你们素食主义者的运气会更好一些，因为你们的心灵是纯洁的。 我这么说是因为我向来乐于助人。 The difference between a contemporary liberal and a socialist is that to a liberal the most beautiful word in the English language is "forbidden", whereas to a socialist the most beautiful word is "compulsory". - jmc 1994 当代自由派和社会主义者的区别是，对于自由派来说，英语中最美丽的词是“禁止”（forbidden），对于社会主义者来说，最美丽的词则是“强制”（compulsory）。 When I hear the word Heidegger I reach for my axe. He may have swiped it. - jmc 1994 当我听到“海德格尔”这个词，我便将手伸向我的斧头。他可能已经把它偷偷拿走了。 Measuring all costs in terms of energy is merely a religious exercise. - jmc 1994 and earlier. “以能量衡量所有成本”只是一种宗教活动而已。 Suicidal terrorists may have short shelf lives. - jmc 1994 自杀式恐怖主义者的保存期限应该很短。 Of course, Third World leaders love you. By ascribing third world ills to First World sins, you absolve them of blame for their countries' failure to advance. - jmc 1995 当然，第三世界的领袖们十分爱你。通过将第三世界的病痛归因于第一世界的罪孽，你使他们免受“无法带领国家进步”的责备。 The slogan was "Don't trust anyone over thirty." Sixty years later the slogan became, "Don't trust anyone over ninety." - jmc 1995 那时的口号是“不要相信任何30岁以上的人。”六十年后，口号变成了“不要相信任何90岁以上的人。” In human history, the desire for revenge and the desire for loot have often been closely associated. - jmc 1995 在人类历史上，复仇的愿望和抢掠的愿望常常紧密相连。 Do you wish to do good for the Mexicans (Palestinians) or they merely a stick with which to beat the Americans (Jews)? - jmc 1995 你真的想为墨西哥人（巴勒斯坦人）做好事吗？还是说，他们只是被你当成用来痛打美国人（犹太人）的棍棒？ Compassion is contempt with a human face. - jmc 1995, modified from Christopher Lasch 所谓怜悯，是用温情的面孔做出的蔑视。——改自Christopher Lasch Don't try to talk anyone out of concentrating his hatred on Ayn Rand or any other dead person. It can't harm the dead. Diverted to a living person, it might actually do harm. jmc - 1994 不要试图劝说任何人将仇恨从安·兰德或任何死去的人身上转移。仇恨不会伤害死人，但若仇恨被转移到活人身上，那就可能真的造成伤害。 In praise of philistines It is said that man doesn't live by bread alone. Sometimes this is unfortunate, because people who cannot live by bread alone too often kill other people in consequence of the fights they get into. The word ‘philistine’ as a pejorative is used in a variety of senses, but a common one refers to a person interested only in money and the goods and amusements money can buy. Usually it doesn't refer to someone who will do anything for money but rather a person who if he makes a reasonable amount of money will spend his time enjoying it without considering either the arts, the advance of science, or righting the injustices of the world --- unless one of the above happens to be his job. It may not be presumed that the Philistine people of the Bible had this property any more than anyone else. Philistines do less harm than most ideologically motivated people. - jmc 1985 据说，人不只靠面包而活。有时这很不幸，因为不能只靠面包生活的人们常常会因卷入纷争而杀人。 “庸碌之士”（philistine）这个词作为一种蔑称有很多种意思，但其中一种是指仅仅对钱以及钱所能买来的商品和娱乐有兴趣的人。通常来说，它不是指那些为了钱而不择手段的人，而是指那些只要赚够一定数量的钱就会将时间用在花钱享受，不去考虑艺术、科技进步、或试图改变世界之不公正的人——除非以上情形之一恰好是他的工作。这并不是说，圣经中的非利士人（Philistine）比其他人容易变成这种人。“庸碌之士”做的坏事比绝大多数被意识形态驱使的人要少得多。 People mourn when a person dies, but no-one mourns the billions of intestinal bacteria that his death dooms. Speciesism, I calls it. - jmc 1995 人们为逝者哀悼，但没有人为了因逝者之死而毁灭的数十亿肠内菌哀悼。我把这叫作“物种主义”。 If it doesn't work right, we can always try something else. - jmc < 1996 如果这样不行，我们总可以尝试些别的。 Once a person has killed other people on behalf of an ideology, he becomes rather devoted to it. - jmc 1997 一旦一个人以一种意识形态为名杀了人，那就表明他过于投入这种意识形态了。 Proposals to forbid golf courses have about the same motivations as proposals to forbid skate boarding, although the rationalizations are different. - jmc 1997 “禁止高尔夫球场”这类提议的动机同“禁止滑板”这类提议是相同的，虽然说辞并不一样。 Asking a critic to name his favorite book is like asking a butcher to name his favorite pig. - jmc 1997 让一个书评家选出最喜爱的书就好好比让一个屠夫选出最喜爱的猪。 Language is froth on the surface of thought. - jmc 1997 语言是浮在思维上面的泡沫。 Slogans rarely convince the unconvinced. However, they do rally the troops already on your side. - jmc 1998 口号很少能让那些不信的人相信。然而，它的确可以让已经站在你这边的人团结起来。 Hardly anyone has noticed that in the Northern Hemisphere people stir their drinks counterclockwise, whereas the same people stir their drinks clockwise when visiting the Southern Hemisphere. - jmc 1998 很少有人注意到北半球的人按逆时针的方向搅拌饮料，而当这些人到访南半球时，他们搅拌饮料的方向就成顺时针了。 Honor among thieves is the ancestor of all honor. Likewise, democracy among tyrants is the ancestor of all democracy. Think Magna Carta. - jmc 1998 窃贼之间的尊严是所有尊严的祖先。与之类似，暴君之间的民主是所有民主的祖先。想想大宪章吧。 As we have recently seen, the function of the anti-trust laws is to protect the poor little fellow with a mere $5 billion from being bullied by the big guy with $50 billion. - jmc 2002 正如我们最近看到的那样，反垄断法的作用是去保护那些仅有50亿美金资产的可怜的小家伙们不受拥有500亿美金的老大哥欺负。 If a person can be said to have the wrong attitude, there is no need to pay attention to his arguments. - jmc 2002 如果一个人的态度是错误的，那么就不用理会他的论证了。 Hard distinctions make bad philosophy. - jmc 2002 严格僵硬的区分造就糟糕的哲学。 A declining institution often experiences survival of the unfittest. - jmc 1960s 一个正在衰败的制度常常会经历“不适者生存”的状况。 With no more than six levels of misquotation, any statement can be made to say whatever you wish. - jmc 2002 在六阶误引之内，任何一句话都可以随意解读。 You don't want to examine the basis of your computer's morality any more than you want to see sausage being made. - jmc 2020 不要去考察计算机的道德基础，也不要去看香肠是怎么做出来的。 When I see a slippery slope, my instinct is to build a terrace. - jmc 2003 每次我看见一个滑坡，本能反应是想造一个梯田。 You don't get to do unto others just anything you imagine they might want to do unto you. 你不应该对别人做那些你以为别人可能想对你做的事。 You attack the religious reactionaries who oppose teaching evolution. Very good. Will you also attack Greenpeace and other idealizers of nature who oppose genetic engineering? - jmc 2006 你攻击那些反对教授进化论的宗教反动派。很好。那么你会去攻击“绿色和平”以及其他反对基因工程、把自然理想化的人吗？ He who refuses to do arithmetic is doomed to talk nonsense. - jmc 1970s or 1980s 不愿做计算，就只能胡扯淡。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

THE SAYINGS OF JOHN MCCARTHY 约翰·麦卡锡语录 Vol.2 作者：John McCarthy 译者：斑马（@鹿兔马朦） 校对：慕白（@李凤阳他说） 来源：John McCarthy's Home Page，http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/sayings.html It's possible to program a computer in English. It's also possible to make an airplane controlled by reins and spurs. - jmc 196x 用英语写计算机程序是有可能的。制造一个通过缰绳和马刺来控制的飞机也是有可能的。 The reason why a professor does something has even less connection with why he says he does it than with most people - jmc 1985 与大多数人相比，一个教授做一件事情的真实理由同他所宣称理由之间的联系更为薄弱。 It's a poor cause for which no-one will scuttle a ship or cut a throat. - jmc 1985 这是个差劲的目标，没有人会为它而毁掉船只，也没有人会为它而割断别人的喉咙。 In this book masculine pronouns embrace not only the feminine but also the robotic. - jmc 1985 在这本书中，阳性代词不仅被用来指代女性，也被用来指代机器人。 A true intellectual is a man who, after reading a book and being convinced by its arguments, will shoot someone or, more likely, order someone shot. - jmc 1985 真正的知识分子在读了一本书并被其中所言折服之后，会朝某个人开枪，或者更有可能的是，去命令某个人开枪。 As T. J. Sr. said to T. J. Jr., "remember my boy, every minute a future valued customer is born and two to meet his requirements". - jmc 1985 正如老T.J.对小T.J.所说，“孩子请记住，每一分钟都将诞生一个在未来有价值的客户，以及两个去满足他需求的人。” When he talks about "firing that loony" he reminds me of a robin attacking its image in a hubcap. - jmc 1985 当他说“开除那个疯子”时，他让我想起一只攻击车轮毂盖上自己映像的知更鸟。 Whenever I hear a dog continually barking, my reaction is one of relief---that it's not my dog making all that racket and inciting the neighbors to call the police. - jmc 1985 每当我听到一只狗不停吠叫的时候，我都感到松了口气——这只乱吠的、扰民的、让人忍不住叫警察的狗，不是我家的。 Amateur bureaucrats are often even worse than professional bureaucrats. - jmc 1985 业余官僚常常比职业官僚还要糟糕。 The last ten percent of any reform is the most difficult to achieve. Moreover, it is often harmful. - jmc 1985 任何改革的最后百分之十都是最难完成的，而且常常是有害的。 When thugs by nature meet thugs by political conviction, 5-0 is not surprising. - jmc 1982? 当天生的暴徒遇到被政治信念所驱使的暴徒，5比0也没什么好惊讶的。 Note to Douglas Hofstadter and Raymond Smullyan: Excessive self reference is as dangerous as smoking. - jmc 1985. 寄语侯世达（Douglas Hofstadter）和雷蒙德·斯穆里安（Raymond Smullyan）：过度的自我引用和吸烟一样危险。 The squabbles among linguists remind me of a saying of my mother-in-law, a retired farmer's wife. "When the chickens start cannibalizing one another, the only thing to do is to butcher the lot or sell them to someone else and start over". 语言学家的争论让我想起我丈母娘的话，她是位退休农场主的媳妇。“当那些鸡开始同类相食，唯一的解决办法就是把它们全杀了，或者把它们卖给别人，然后重新养一批。” Praising the Sandinistas while criticizing the Soviets is like loving kittens and deploring cats. Actually it's not such a nice kitty. - jmc 1986 褒奖桑地诺分子的同时批判苏联人，就好比喜欢猫崽的同时责备大猫。其实它也不是什么好猫。 Soccer riots kill at most tens. Intellectuals' ideological riots sometimes kill millions. - jmc 1986 足球骚乱最多死几十个人。知识分子的意识形态骚乱有时会杀掉几百万人。 You have to transcend your class interests. Since you belong to the class from which bureaucrats are recruited, you naturally favor making people deal with bureaucracies. - jmc 你必须要超越自己的阶级利益。因为官僚正是来自你所在的阶级，你就很自然地喜爱让人们与官僚做交易。 The peace advocates are more interested in beating the conservatives than in reaching agreement with the Soviets. - jmc 1987 相比起与苏联人达成共识，和平倡议者更喜欢攻击保守党。 Your statements amount to saying that if AI is possible, it should be easy. Why is that? - jmc 1987 你的言论无异于是说，如果人工智能是可能的，那就应当是容易实现的。何以如此？ Here's a way to tell scientific intelligence from legal intelligence. Both may start from the idea that something cannot be done and think up arguments to explain why. However, it is possible that the scientist may discover a flaw in the argument that leads him to change his mind and discover a way to do it. He will be pleased. The legal thinker will merely try to patch the flaw in the argument, because once he has chosen a side, all his intelligence is devoted to finding arguments for that side. - jmc 1987 有种方法可以区分科学智力和法学智力。两者的起点都是发现有些工作无法完成，然后去想出一些说辞对此作出解释。然而，科学家可能会发现说辞之中的疏漏，并因此改变自己的想法，并找到一种完成工作的方式。科学家会因此感到满足。法学思维的人只会试图填补说辞的缺口，因为一旦他选择了一边，他的所有智力都会用于为他所选择的立场进行论证。 I don't see as how this Marxist-Leninist is any different from any other Marxist-Leninist. - jmc 1987 我没看出这个马列主义者和其他马列主义者有什么区别。 We modern Marxists regard socialism as a historically brief transitional stage between feudalism and capitalism, necessary only in backward countries. - jmc 1987 我们现代马克思主义者认为，社会主义是由封建制度向资本主义转变的短暂历史阶段，只有在落后国家才是必须的。 An excessive knowledge of Marxism is a sign of a misspent youth. - jmc 1980s 拥有过量的马克思主义知识是虚度青春的标志。 To pop where no-one has pushed. - jmc 1987 在没有人压住的地方跳出来。 Both politicians and journalists face situations which strain their honesty and humanity. My opinion is that politicians on the average stand up somewhat better than journalists. - jmc 1988 政客和记者都会面对挑战他们诚实和人性的场合。我的观点是，政客一般比记者更能经受住考验。 Ask not for whom the horn honks. It honks for thee. - jmc 1988 别问喇叭为谁而鸣。它为你而鸣。 Imaginary dialog: Please explain why you are not to be regarded as a pompous fool. ... Well, perhaps you are a pompous fool with power. Please explain what you want me to do and what harm you are threatening to do to me if I don't comply with your wishes. - jmc 想象中的对话： 请解释为何别人不应把你当成一个自大的蠢货…… 啊，可能你是一个有权势的自大的蠢货。请解释你想让我做什么，以及如果我不按照你的愿望来的话，你会用什么威胁我。 He has the first half of the Golden Rule down pat: Do unto others. - jmc 1988 他只记住了黄金法则的后一半：施于人。 If I owned Marseilles and Hell, I'd rent out Marseilles and live in Hell. - Marcel Proust, 1989 如果我拥有马赛和地狱，那么我会把马赛租出去，自己住地狱。——马塞尔·普鲁斯特 The SCLC draft has a whole mile of good intentions. - jmc 1989 SCLC草案的初衷是很好的。【译注：SCLC是Southern Christian Leadership Conference（南方基督教领袖会议）的缩写，是一个美国黑人民权运动组织，1957年由马丁·路德·金召集60多位黑人牧师创建。】 Foolishness is rarely a matter of lack of intelligence or even lack of information. - jmc 1989 愚蠢很少是因为缺乏智力，甚至很少是因为缺乏信息。 An extreme optimist is a man who believes that humanity will probably survive even if it doesn't take his advice. - jmc 1989 极端乐观主义者认为，即使不听取他的建议，人类仍然有可能存活下去。 - We should get him interested in the abortion issue. - Which side? - It doesn't matter which side. Both sides have relatively responsible leadership, and neither is likely to prompt him to kill for the cause. - jmc 1989 ——我们应该让他关注堕胎问题。 ——站哪边？ ——站哪边都不是问题。两边都有还算负责任的领袖，并且任何一边都不太可能鼓励他因此而杀人。 Committing genocide on behalf of an institution generates greater loyalty to it than merely getting people fired from their jobs on its behalf. - jmc 1989 相比起让人们为一个制度而被炒鱿鱼，以这个制度为名进行种族屠杀能为它带来更多的忠诚。 He divides up this subject the way a Chinese cook divides up a duck. - jmc 1990 他像中国大厨切烤鸭那样将这个主题切开。 It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self interest. - Adam Smith Alas few socialists are either benevolent enough to work hard at these occupations out of benevolence or self-interested enough to work hard at them for money. - jmc 1991 我们的晚餐并非来自于屠夫、酿酒者、或是面包师的慈悲，而是来自于他们为自我利益的考量。——亚当·斯密 哎呀，很少有社会主义者慈悲到了可以出于慈悲而在这些职位上努力，也没有多少社会主义者自利到能够为了钱而在这些职位努力工作。 It's just a pissing contest, but unfortunately the contestants never seem to run out of piss. - jmc 1991 这只是个撒尿比赛，可遗憾的是参赛者好像永远也尿不完。 There is only one thing more harmful to society than an elected official forgetting the promises he made in order to get elected; that's when he doesn't forget them. - jmc 1992 对社会来讲，只有一件事比当选官员忘掉为赢得选票所做出的承诺更加糟糕，那就是他没有忘记这些承诺。 This is not the first time my views on some topic have inspired in someone the desire to psychoanalyze me. Previous experience leads me to ask about your couch. Is it comfortable? Are its springs in good shape? - jmc 我对一些问题的看法勾起了一些人对我进行精神分析的愿望，这种状况已经不是第一次了。由于先前的经验，我想要了解一下沙发的状况。它舒适吗？它的弹簧没变形吧？ My opinion is that he's a swindler and you're a sucker. - jmc 1993 我的意见是，他是个骗子而你是个傻蛋。 Inside of many liberals is a fascist struggling to get out. - jmc 1993 许多自由派的内心都有一个急欲挣脱而出的法西斯。 The new class struggle will pit the workers and the bosses against the others. - jmc 1993 新的阶级斗争将会是工人和老板联合对抗其他人。 The Republican majority in 1994 was a coalition of the workers and the bosses against the others. - jmc 1995 1994年的共和党国会多数，是一个工人和老板共同对抗其他人的联盟。【译注：共和党在1994年中期选举中获得自1946年以来最辉煌的胜利，终结了民主党对国会长达40年的控制，并在此后12年占据国会两院多数，同时还赢得了过半数的州长和州议会选举，史称“共和党革命”。这次胜利一是利用了选民对克林顿医保改革方案的担忧，二是得益于金里奇所提出的“与美国之契约（Contract with America）”这一政治纲领的巨大号召力，这份纲领为此后十几年的保守主义复兴奠定了基调，其所带来的选举后果也重构了美国的政治光谱。不过，麦卡锡此处所指为何，却不太清楚，或许是指金里奇纲领中的亲企业部分。】 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

THE SAYINGS OF JOHN MCCARTHY 约翰·麦卡锡语录 Vol.1 作者：John McCarthy 译者：斑马（@鹿兔马朦） 校对：慕白（@李凤阳他说） 来源：John McCarthy's Home Page，http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/sayings.html Mankind will probably survive even if it doesn't take my advice. - jmc 即便不采纳我的建议，人类大概也能活下去。 Equality of the sexes is more important than equality of the genders. - jmc 1985 雌雄平等比男女平等更重要。 As the Chinese say, 1001 words is worth more than a picture. - jmc 正如中国人所说，一千零一言胜一图。【译注：此处麦卡锡好像是在拿“一图胜千言”这句话开玩笑，笑点请自己找。】 During the second millennium, the Earthmen complained a lot. - jmc 在第二个千年间，地球人抱怨连连。 When there's a will to fail, obstacles can be found. - jmc 1983 March 如果你想失败的话，障碍总是找得到的。 There is nothing so powerful as an idea whose time has come. - Victor Hugo Yes, even if it's a bad idea.- jmc 如果一种理念得逢其时，那么它将无往不胜。。——维克多·雨果 是啊，即便是个糟糕的理念。——约翰·麦卡锡 Everyone needs computer programming. It will be the way we speak to the servants.- jmc, 1966. Alas, it didn't come to pass. 每个人都需要编程。它将是我们与仆人对话的方式。——约翰·麦卡锡，1966。哎，没有成真。 Personal dishonesty is not needed to produce a dishonest business plan or research proposal. Wishful thinking suffices. - jmc 1986 欺骗性的商业计划或研究提案不必源自个人的不诚实。一厢情愿就够了。 People prefer dealing with machinery to dealing with bureaucracies. - jmc 1986 相比起应付官僚制度，人们更愿应付机器。 Your denial of the importance of objectivity amounts to announcing your intention to lie to us. No-one should believe anything you say. - jmc 1986 你否认客观性的重要意义，这就等于宣布，你打算对我们说谎。所有人都不该相信你说的任何话。 You are eager to defend rationality against the creationists. Fine. Are you also willing to defend it against the environmentalists? - jmc 1989 你们这么热情的支持理性主义，反对神创论者。好啊，那你们也愿意支持理性主义并反对环保主义者吗？ Cynicism is a cheap substitute for sophistication. You don't actually have to learn anything. - jmc 1989 犬儒主义是老于世故的廉价替代品。因为你并不需要为此去学任何东西。 We can't afford to waste money on crossing the ocean, Mr. Columbus, when Spanish society has so many unsolved problems. Why, most of those Jews and Moors we have converted aren't really sincere Catholics, and a lack of money to hire more inquisitors has put their questionings so far behind that many have died of natural causes before the Holy Inquisition ever got around to them. - jmc 1993 哥伦布先生，西班牙社会还有许多问题没解决，我们不能将钱浪费在航海上。那些被我们改变了信仰的犹太人和摩尔人中，大多数都不是真正虔诚的天主教徒，因为没钱雇用更多的宗教裁判官，审判进度大大拖后了，恐怕在对他们进行审判之前，他们就已经自然死亡了。 He who claims that affairs could not be worse is very likely to make them worse. - jmc 1989 那些宣称事情不会更糟的人，很可能会让事情变得更糟。 Asking someone to recite his favorite modern poem is about as fair as asking him recite his favorite crossword puzzle. - jmc 1988 让一个人背诵他最喜欢的现代诗就好像让他背诵他最喜欢的填字迷一样无稽。 Malthus was right. It's hard to see how the solar system could support much more than 10^28 people or the universe more than 10^50. - jmc 1987 马尔萨斯是对的。我弄不懂太阳系如何能够供养超过10的28次方的人口，也不明白宇宙如何能够承受超过10的50次方的人口。 He has a tragic vision of life - as in a cigarette ad. - jmc 他对生命的看法很悲观，就如同烟草广告中展现的那样。 Writing a ‘future work’ section of a paper is like a dog pissing on the trees at the boundary of its territory. - jmc 1991 为一篇论文撰写“未来研究展望”这一节时，就像一条狗在领地边界的树上撒尿。 Young men can readily be roused to fight. If the institutions of the United States and of California didn't prevent it, the middle-aged men of Palo Alto and Menlo Park could readily get the teen agers of these cities to shoot at each other across San Francisquito Creek over the proper location of the Willow Road extension. - jmc 1990 年轻小伙们随时都可以被惹得挥舞拳头。如果美国和加州的法律不对此加以阻止，帕洛阿尔托和门洛帕克城的中年男子将不难让这些城市的少年们因为Willow Road延长线的选址而在San Francisquito Creek两侧开枪火拼。 It doesn't matter if the children are illiterate, provided they are all equally illiterate. - jmc 1998 孩子们识不识字并没那么重要，只要他们平等地不识字就行了。 Comparing oneself with Galileo or Einstein is certainly good for the ego - provided one refrains from going into too much detail. - jmc 1996 将自己同伽利略或爱因斯坦相提并论当然会自我感觉良好，只要你别让自己过于深入细节。 God did not design human beings in accordance with Christian principles, fascist principles, feminist principles, socialist principles, romantic principles, secular humanist principles, vegetarian principles, deep environmentalist principles, biocentric principles, or libertarian principles. Any of these groups could have told God a thing or two. - jmc 1995 上帝并未按照基督教原则、法西斯原则、女权原则、社会主义原则、浪漫主义原则、世俗人文主义原则、素食主义原则、深度环保主义原则、生物中心原则或者自由意志主义原则来设计人类的。所以上述群体都可以给上帝上上课。 One can persecute with especial complacency if one regards one's victim as a representative of some great malevolent power. - jmc 1995 每个人都可以从迫害他人中获得无与伦比的满足感，只要他将受害者当做某种邪恶力量的代表。 If you want to do good, work on the technology, not on getting power. - jmc 1995 如果你想做点好事，那么请致力于发展技术，不要企图攫取权力。 The politicians have a most touching faith in technology - that it can make up for any dumb thing the politicians decide to do. - jmc 1993 政客们对技术有着一种着魔般的信念，认为技术能帮他们做成任何蠢事，无论有多蠢。 A taste for Ingmar Bergman films is the modern subsitute for attending hangings. - jmc 1994 现在的人喜欢看英格玛·伯格曼的电影，就像从前的人喜欢看绞刑。 An atheist doesn't have to be someone who thinks he has a proof that there can't be a god. He only has to be someone who believes that the evidence on the God question is at a similar level to the evidence on the werewolf question.- jmc 1992 无神论者不必认为自己拥有上帝不可能存在的证据。他只需要相信关于上帝的证据和关于狼人的证据同属一个水平就够了。 Barnum predicted that most psychoanalysts would have a hard time making a living when he said, "There's a sucker born every minute and two to take him." One sucker isn't really enough to support two psychoanalysts. - jmc 1994 当巴纳姆说：“每分钟都有一个傻蛋出生，而且还得有两个傻蛋来照顾他。”这句话预言了大多数精神分析师将难以维生这种状况。对啊，一个傻蛋怎么养得活两个精神分析师嘛。 Asking Terry Eagleton whether he liked a particular book is like asking an entomologist whether he personally liked the beetle he has just finished dissecting. - jmc 1994 让泰瑞·伊格顿回答他是否喜欢某本书就好像问一个昆虫学家是否喜欢刚刚解剖过的那只甲虫。 He who says he will die for a cause will probably lie for it and may kill for it. - jmc 如果一个人说自己愿意为某种事业去死，那么他很可能愿意为这种事业去说谎，并且可能为这种事业杀人。 No-one has yet built a monument so high that a bird can't fly over and shit on it. –jmc 目前还没有任何一座丰碑能高到足以避免一只鸟从它顶上飞过并在上面拉屎。 The peace movement is a great force for peace. Some of the world's most quarrelsome people act out their aggressions through the peace movement. - jmc 和平运动是推动和平的强大助力。一些世上最爱吵架的家伙通过和平运动完成了他们的侵略。 When the policeman quits, each must provide for his own defense. Nuclear proliferation has become more likely. - jmc 1975 如果警察甩手不干了，那每一方都必须设法自保。核扩散的可能性上升了。 Governor Brown says nuclear power is the Vietnam issue of the 1980s. The difference is that if he prevails, the boat people will be Americans. - jmc 布朗州长说，核能问题就相当于80年代的越南问题。区别在于，如果他获胜，投奔怒海的将是美国人。【译注：《投奔怒海》（Boat People）是1982年上映的一部香港电影，讲美军撤离、南越沦陷后越南人的悲惨状况，以及大批人坐船从海上逃离的经历。】 To keep the wilderness truly wild, all maps and publications should be suppressed - no more Sierra Club books and calendars. - jmc 为让野生环境保持纯粹野生，所有地图和出版物都应当被叫停——禁止塞拉俱乐部的书籍和行事历。 When architects get prizes, the people suffer. - jmc 设计师获奖，人民就惨了。 Self-righteousness is more dangerous than smoking. - jmc 1983 March 自以为是比吸烟还危险。 Self-righteousness has killed more people than smoking. - jmc 1988 jan 自以为是比烟草杀死的人更多。 During the first three millenia, the Earthmen complained a lot. - jmc 在头三千年中，地球人抱怨连连。 Young tyrants are more genocidal than old tyrants - with the exception of Khomeini. 年轻的暴君比年老的暴君更喜欢种族屠杀——霍梅尼除外。 You say you couldn't live if you thought the world had no purpose. You're saying that you can't form purposes of your own - that you need someone to tell you what to do. The average child has more gumption than that. - jmc before 1983 你说，要是你觉得世界没有目的，你就活不下去。这意味着你无法形成自己的目的——你需要别人告诉你该做什么。普通孩童都比你有进取心。 If everyone were to live for others all the time, life would be like a procession of ants following each other around in a circle. - jmc before 1983 如果每个人每时每刻都为他人而活，那么生活将会像头尾相随的一群蚂蚁一样不停绕圈子。 He's a man of principle. He'd cut his mother's throat for a principle. - jmc before 1983 他是有原则的男人。他会为了原则而割断他母亲的喉咙。 As Marx should have said, the principle of communism is From each according to what he can't get out of doing. To each according to whom he knows. - jmc dec 1983 马克思可能会说，共产主义的原则是，各尽所不能，各取所知。 It is deplorable that many people think that the best way to improve the world is to forbid something. However, they're morally more advanced than the people who think the best way to improve the world is to kill somebody. jmc, 1984 March 许多人认为，让这个世界变好的最好办法是去禁止一些事情，这真是可悲可叹。然而，和那些认为最好办法是杀人的人相比，这些人的道德更加高尚。 If Jesus were here today, he'd be a real revolutionary. Do you mean there'd be twice as many boat people? jmc, 1984 Aug. 如果耶稣活在今天，那他会是个真正的革命者。你是说将会有两倍的难民吗？ That's not a book; it's a core dump. jmc 1984 aug, after Paul Heckel. 这不是一本书，这是个核心转储。读Paul Heckel有感。 You say the only alternative to nuclear war is world government. There is only one possibility worse than nuclear war for the survival of modern civilization, and that is world government. Civilization might recover from the damage of a nuclear war, but judging by past static empires in Egypt and China, it might never recover from world government, there being no chance of external intervention. As it is, present governments are only prevented from becoming dominated by crazy ideas that will suppress all opposition by the existence of other governments. The only way a people can be sure that their government is substandard is that it does worse than those of other countries. 你说唯一可以避免核战争的方法是建立世界政府。只有一种可能性比核战争对现代文明的生存更加危险，那就是世界政府。文明也许能从核战争的破坏中恢复，但是从过去中国和埃及的静态帝国看来，人类文明将很有可能无法从世界政府中恢复，因为它将没有获得外部干预的机会。正如现在，目前的政府之所以可以免于被“压制所有反对意见”这样疯狂念头所支配，只不过是因为有许多其他政府的存在。让一个民族能够准确判断他们的政府没有达标的唯一方法，就是当他们发现自己的政府比其他国家做得差的时候。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

The Future of Democracy, Freedom, and Prosperity 民主、自由与繁荣的未来 作者：Arnold Kling @ 2015-7-14 译者：迈爸（@麦田的字留地） 校对：小聂 来源：askblog，http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/the-future-of-democracy-freedom-and-prosperity/ A simple topic for four of us to spend an hour discussing. The conclusion of my opening remarks: 一个简单的话题，我们四个花一小时讨论。我的开场白：

one sort of maybe fictional type scenario would be that you would get a sudden sovereign debt crisis in the United States that would take place in an environment where the political feelings are frayed–there’s a lot of controversy; people no longer see the legislators and the executive as having legitimacy for solving their problems.They take to the streets.  There’s fighting; there’s violence. 或许可以设想这样一幕虚构场景：美国将陷入一场突如其来的主权债务危机，而那时候的政治环境已经大变，政治氛围变得焦躁好斗——总是争吵不休；人民不再认为立法和行政机构拥有解决他们的问题所需要的合法性。他们走上街头，诉诸武力和暴力。 And at that point the people are ready to turn to some kind of dictator to resolve the violence. So that’s kind of a fictional scenario. There’s certainly you can see either economic or political ways to avoid it. But that would be sort of my one pessimistic scenario relative to maintaining our open access order. Which, if we do maintain our open access order, I think eventually we do recover prosperity and we sort of maintain freedom. 这个时候，人们就准备好转而接受某种独裁者来解决暴力问题了。这是一种虚构场景。当然你可能会说，有经济或政治的方法来避免它。但是，和我们的开放秩序能够得以维持的前景相比，我也看到了类似这样的一幅悲观图景。当然，只要我们能够保持开放秩序，我想最终我们仍将恢复繁荣，并保证一部分的自由。

John Cochrane worries about John Cochrane则担心：

the vast attempt of our government to control economics from the big Dodd-Frank and Obamacare down to the small regulations against Uber and occupational licensing for hairdressers, and so forth. 政府对经济的管控已无所不用其极，大至多德－弗兰克法案（Dodd-Frank Act）【译注：全称《多德—弗兰克华尔街改革和消费者保护法》，2010年制订，旨在加强金融市场监管，有关其实施效果，海德沙龙将在今后译介更多文章】、奥巴马医改，小至对Uber的管制，甚至理发师都需要职业许可证。 This enterprise has vast power. It’s increasingly politicized. And right now it’s used already to silence opposition to the regulatory fiefdoms. What bank dares to speak out against the Dodd-Frank Act? What health insurer dares to speak out against Obamacare? 这门行当权力巨大，且日益政治化。现在它已经可以在管制的领域让反对的声音消失。哪家银行敢公开反对多德-弗兰克法案？哪家医疗保险公司敢公开反对奥巴马的医改方案？

It seems to me that strong regulation often has the support, or at least the acquiescence, of incumbent business interests. The question is whether potential new competition is thwarted. Lee Ohanian, another speaker in this session, is pessimistic on that score. 在我看来，强监管政策常常能在市场现有的利益相关企业中找到支持者，或者至少是默许。问题是，这是否阻碍了潜在的新竞争者进入。这次会议的另一位发言者Lee Ohanian在这点上是悲观的：

Another recent study found that the decline in community banking accelerated considerably in the last few years, reflecting economies of scale in managing new regulation associated with Dodd-Frank. Small Business Administration says that lending to small businesses has declined by about 20% since 2008, which was of course the year of the Great Recession. And in 2013 only 1 new bank entered the banking industry. 最近的另一项研究发现，在过去几年中，社区银行业的衰退明显加速，反映了规模经济与实施多德-弗兰克法案有关的管制之间的关系【译注：这里隐含逻辑是：强监管带来更高的合规成本，而小企业在摊薄这项成本上不具规模经济，因而强监管政策实际上起到了削弱小企业竞争优势的作用】。据小企业管理局说，自2008以来，也就是经济大衰退的那一年，贷给小企业的钱已经下降了大约20%。而在2013年只有一家银行进入银行业。 So you look at the outcome of Dodd-Frank–declining competition, fewer banks, lack of entry, higher costs, regulators with broad mandates who make vague and far-reaching rules–this represents a sharp departure from the clear and specific limits on government. 所以多德-弗兰克法案的结果就是，竞争的趋弱、银行的减少、新入行者的稀缺和更高的成本。大权在握的监管机构制定的规则模糊却影响深远——它表明我们又一次急剧偏离了清晰而具体地限制政府权力这一原则。

【编者按：这次对话的视频和录音在这个网页上可以找到：http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2015/07/lee_ohanian_arn.html 】 （编辑：@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

【2015-08-06】 @海德沙龙 自去年奥巴马开始发起提高最低工资的运动以来，康涅狄格率先响应，立法要求最低时薪两年内提高至$10.10，此后一些城市也迅速跟进，其中以加州城市最为积极，目前流行的口号是15美元，西雅图也于去年6月通过了法案，本文介绍了最低工资法的一种荒唐后果 http://t.cn/RLYmuRB @whigzhou: 最低工资法是常见干预措施中最恶劣的一种（我本来想用恶毒/卑劣/无耻等道德意味更明确的词汇，不过想想还是算了，总不能完全排除愚蠢的可能），它把最脆弱无助但又愿意通过自身努力改善生活的人残忍的驱逐出了劳动市场。正因其荒谬和恶劣程度，它也是观察公共政策氛围已恶化到何种程度的一个风向标。 @whigzhou: 对于无知起哄者，最低工资法是表达其伪善的最廉价方式，其主张无异于宣称，为改变穷人命运，你无须任何努力，只要改改数字就行，就像以为只要在脸书上点点赞就能帮助非洲难民，而这种廉价良心安慰法，正是某些政客最乐意兜售的 @whigzhou: 对于某些精明政客，借助最低工资法将最弱势群体驱逐出劳动市场，也为其继续兜售福利主义政策创造了需求，这一手法类似于秃蚣当年在农村发动割命时，通过破坏刻意农民的生计基础、制造仇恨，来为自己创造“群众基础”和炮灰来源 @lion_kittyyyyy:最低工资在美国历史上第一次出现就是为了挤出劳动力的。1911年在马塞诸塞州，妇女的收入在每周5刀-7刀，低于当时的最低生活标准。于是，最低工资倡议者H. LaRue Brown写道：“我们付出社会最宝贵的财富…（劳动）毁掉了那些本该成为高效的美国公民的女孩的身体。” @lion_kittyyyyy:1912年，马塞诸塞州通过了全国第一个最低工资法案，仅针对妇女与18岁以下儿童。