【2022-03-30】
@whigzhou: 经济领域未来几年的一大主题将是供应链再配置,每个供应来源国将依其可依赖程度被归入从核心到外围的一层层圈带,企业将基于这样的层次划分重新评估其供应链的总体可靠性,这种评估可以是自我评估,也可以是投资者、债权人、评级者或监管者实行的外部评估,企业将被鼓励提供这方面的披露,监管者甚至可能强制规定这样的披露,评估的结果自然会引发再配置过程,不是主动调整,就是被动调整,最终结果将是基于上述层次划分重新组合的新(more...)
【2022-03-30】
@whigzhou: 经济领域未来几年的一大主题将是供应链再配置,每个供应来源国将依其可依赖程度被归入从核心到外围的一层层圈带,企业将基于这样的层次划分重新评估其供应链的总体可靠性,这种评估可以是自我评估,也可以是投资者、债权人、评级者或监管者实行的外部评估,企业将被鼓励提供这方面的披露,监管者甚至可能强制规定这样的披露,评估的结果自然会引发再配置过程,不是主动调整,就是被动调整,最终结果将是基于上述层次划分重新组合的新(more...)
【2021-12-18】
美国在70年代之前和之后的增长模式十分不同,Tyler Cowen 在 The Great Stagnation 里提出过这个问题,后来 Robert Gordon在《美国增长的起落》里有更详尽的描述,
Cowen 指出的现象是清楚的,但他的分析不得要领,简单说,他认为原因是容易摘到的果子都已经摘掉了,新的增长点很难找,而他开出的药方是多多支持科研,指望从中冒出像汽车那样的足以掀起大消费浪潮的大创新,
问题是:
1)有没有迹象显示,自70年代以来,美国企业的创新活动减少了,或创新激励减弱了?依我看,众多线索都指向相反方向,
2)何以认为这种增长模式转变是个需要治疗的毛病,因而需要你来开药方?更具体的说,当你对一国经济表现做长时段比较时,GDP增长率是不是恰当指标?如果GDP增长率放缓是社会富裕化的自然结果,那又有什么可担心的?
完全有可能,GDP这种特定的度量方法,会倾向于高估某些类型的福利改进,而低估另一些类型的福利改进,而后者在富裕社会的增长中占比更高(more...)
【2021-12-17】
现代经济中,存量有形资产的灭失成本相对整个经济体量来说是很小的,可以说微不足道,德国日本都被炸成那样了,没几年也就复苏了,所以,存量有形资产作为勒索筹码,至少在国际关系中的价值非常低,
对个体公司来说,价值略高一点,但也高不到哪儿去,特别是大型跨国公司,观察一下历史股价,火灾地震摧毁一家工厂,损失数字看起来不小,但对大公司的股价其实影响不大,所以,在跨国公司决定去留的问题上,存量有形资产作为勒索筹码也不会有多大用处,
真正管用的筹码是未来市场机会,这个筹码一直在起作用,但眼下可见两个苗头,一是筹码份量本身在缩减,二是跨国公司权衡天平的另一头,另一个份量重得多的筹码正在压上来,份量重到几乎无法抗拒——
国会对许多跨国公司脚踩两只船,两头吃好处的 do(more...)
【2021-11-18】
各国的长期增长走势是由波谷决定的,若把最近委内瑞拉的例子添进去,效果会更显著
(Douglass C. North & 《暴力与社会秩序》)
【2021-12-02】
@whigzhou: 比委内瑞拉更近的例子是埃塞俄比亚
【2021-04-23】
空间上的重组将是未来十年美国经济的一大景象,一些城市的治安状况正在向70年代水平回归,税基逃离,财政破产,将随之而来,
而且,在一段区间内,这一趋势非但不会被纠正,还会得到强化,因为部分人的逃离,只会提高当前台上政客的得票率,
美国历史上,类似的空间重组已发生过多次,原因各不相同,西进运动,水运向铁路的转变削弱了大河沿岸的优势,汽车导致的郊区化,州际公路网带来的分散化效果,空调普及成就了阳光地带,航空枢纽的影响,铁锈带的形成……
【2021-02-24】
一件有意思的事情,pandemic 曾经引起很多商品的短缺,可出人意料的是,它还造成了一次严重的硬币短缺,去年夏天开始,很多米国商家发现自己没有硬币用来找零了,去银行也换不到足够硬币,因为短缺是普遍的,不少商家脑筋还挺机灵,知道有个地方能换到硬币:投币洗衣店,于是大家都拿着纸币去机器上兑换,然后洗衣店们就不干了,派保安守着兑换机,只许真正的顾客换,可饶是如此,他们的硬币也很快耗尽了,因为来洗衣服的顾客中,自带硬币的比例似乎明显降低了,
这里有篇报道:
richmondfed.org/publications/research/econ_focus/2020/q4/federal_reserve
问题是,pandemic 让很多人(more...)
【2021-02-23】
经济史家里,除了加州学派那一窝之外,还有个名气很大却又特别垃圾的人,Robert Fogel,就是1993年和Douglass North分得诺奖的那位,当年让他一举成名的研究,是铁路对米国经济的影响,其结论可谓惊世骇俗:铁路的影响小到可以忽略,
看到这么颠覆性的结论,我很自然会以为,肯定有什么特别独到的方法揭示了某种隐藏特别深的事实吧,仔细一看,差点没把我隔夜饭喷出来,
结论怎么来的呢?他发明了一个概念叫社会节省(social savings),意思是,某一时(more...)
【2020-08-30】
18世纪大清经济最繁荣的地区(江南,广东,福建),工资率也最低,这可能是揭示马尔萨斯型增长(俗称内卷化)的一个最直接明了的量化指标,显示了这种繁荣是通过不断追加劳动投入(同时劳动生产率下降)的结果,这与西欧的情况恰好相反,在那里,最繁荣的北海地区,工资率也最高。(摘自Jan Luiten van Zanden《通往工业割命的漫长道路》第9章)
【2020-07-19】
@LIQUIDITY_NOTES @学经济家 1900以来各个国家前1%人群收入比重的数据,很有意思的是英语国家(美、英、加、澳、爱)都是U型走势;而欧洲大陆(法、西、荷、丹)和日本则呈现L型。
@学经济家: 以前金融资本视角系列长文中提过“里根-里甘-沃尔克节点”,视为划时代(金融视角里一战二战节点权重低于这个)。英语国家可视为超大市场(相比德日法语);全球投资的能力更强;对全球资本、精英还有富豪(以及官二代)的吸引力也更强。
(more...)【2019-10-20】
我觉得女性劳动参与率提高会降低阶层流动性,因为假如男性预期未来妻子是家庭妇女,择偶时就不会太在意其教育程度和潜在工资水平,反之,则会在这方面更assortative,从而提高阶层内婚比例,如图所示,工资收入Top10%的男性的配偶的工资收入也在Top10%里的比例自70年代以来一直在上升,同期女性劳动参与率也在提高,来源:How Assortative Mating Is Driving Income Inequality by Branko Milanovic
【2016-09-04】
该微博因被多人举报,根据《微博社区管理规定》,已被删除。
@whigzhou: 这也太牵强附会了,巴西走进口替代封闭经济,高关税培育国内制造业,最后被外债拖死,贵汁走三来一补外向型,贸易盈余多到撑,这个差别怎么强调都不过分,被原po直接无视
@whigzhou: 拉美和东亚滑向不同模式也事出有因,其中之一是劳动力禀赋差异,拉美平均智商比东亚低不止一个标准差,卖劳力没比较优势
@轻舟知寒:卖劳力为什么需要智商高?
@whigzhou: (more...)
Seattle’s Coming $15 Minimum Wage
西雅图即将实施15美元最低工资标准
作者:Clinton Alexander @ 2015-10-28
译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值)
来源:The New American,www.thenewamerican.com/economy/economics/item/21844-seattles-coming-15-minimum-wage
In the city of Seattle, Washington, Joe Salvatore runs The Recycling Depot, a recycling business employing about 20 people. Not far away, Bobby Denovski is eking out a living at Padrino’s Pizza and Pasta with a handful of employees, and Remo Borracchini is busy running an Italian Bakery. The story is the same across Washington State and across the nation: Businesses are fighting every day to service customers, treat employees well, and simply stay open.
Joe Salvatore在华盛顿州西雅图市经营一家叫做“回收站”的回收企业,雇佣了大约20人。不远处,Bobby Denovski正惨淡经营着“帕记披萨和意粉”店,雇有少量员工。而Remo Borracchini则在为经营一家名为“意大利烘焙”的小店而上下奔波。这种故事在华盛顿州和整个美国都很普遍:为了服务顾客、善待雇员以及仅仅是保持开业,企业每天都在奋斗。
Unfortunately in the city of Seattle, it is about to get much more difficult for business owners to continue the fight. Pushed forward primarily by socialist city councilwoman Kshama Sawant, the first phase of a new minimum wage law went into effect on April 1, 2015, and the law will eventually bring all businesses to a $15 minimum wage, more than double the current federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour.
不幸地是,在西雅图市,企业主想要继续奋斗下去,将来会变得更加艰难。主要由信奉社会主义的女市议员Kshama Sawant推动的新最低工资法已于2015年4月1日进入第一阶段的实施,并最终将对所有企业实行15美元最低工资标准,相当于将目前时薪7.25美元的联邦最低工资翻了一倍以上。
The law is a graduated system with different pay scales and timelines for businesses above and below 500 employees. For businesses with 501 employees or more, the April 1, 2015 minimum wage was set a(more...)
In economics, there is a principal called “zero sum gain” in which an increase is offset by a loss of equal amount. When a small business (and per the SBA’s size standards, over 99% of U.S. companies qualify as small) sees its operating costs increase, it has three options: 1) absorb the cost, 2) raise prices or 3) lower expenses. Since businesses don’t operate with the intention of losing money, the irony of a drastic increase in the minimum wage is that in order for employers to adjust, the net effect may be higher inflation and unemployment, disproportionately hurting the very same group the $15 minimum wage was intended to help. 在经济学中,有个原理叫做‘零和受益’,其中增加值被等量的损失所抵消。如果一家小企业(按照SBA的规模标准,美国超过99%的公司算小企业)的运营成本上升,它就面临三个选项:1)承担这一成本,2)提高价格,或者3)降低开支。由于企业运营的目的并不是为了损失金钱,所以最低工资急剧提升的反讽在于,雇主为了实现调整,最终净效果可能是通胀升高及失业率升高,这对于15美元最低工资标准意图帮助的那个群体损害相对更大。McLaughlin lays out three ways in which the new Seattle minimum wage law will play out as it’s implemented: a loss to the business owner (absorb the cost), a cost to the general public (raise prices), or a reduction in expenses (possible job loss). McLaughlin提出了西雅图最低工资新法实施之后最终将走向的三种路径:企业主出现损失(承担成本),一般公众的损失(提高价格),或者削减开支(可能出现工作岗位流失)。 A Loss to the Business Owner 企业主出现损失 For those people who have never run a business, the absorption of the additional cost may seem to be the easiest and most straightforward solution to the requirement to pay employees more. But contrary to what those who have never had the experience of sitting down with a company’s balance sheets might think, all business owners are not jet-setting CEOs with profits just flowing in. 对于从未经营过任何企业的人来说,为了达到支付雇员更高工资的要求,由企业承担额外成本似乎是最简单、最直接的解决办法。但与这些从未看过任何一个公司财务收支表的人所想的相反,并非所有企业主都是乘坐直升机的CEO,利润滚滚而来。 At The Recycling Depot, general manager Joe Salvatore stated, “What these people don’t take into consideration is that when you raise the wage, you’re raising the Labor and Industries Insurance cost because that amount is affected by the wages. I have already talked to several small businesses in the area and there’s not a single one who is making tons and tons of money where they’re just going to be able to absorb these costs.” “回收站”的总经理Joe Salvatore说,“这些人没有考虑到,如果提高工资,你还会提高劳动和工业保险成本,因为后者会受工资影响。我已经和本地区的数家小企业谈过,没有一家是在成吨成吨地赚钱,没有一家能够直接承担这些成本。” In other words, while the absorption of minor costs may be a normal and constant part of running a business, the bottom line is a major factor. At Padrino’s Pizza and Pasta, Bobby Denovski echoed Salvatore’s sentiment: “We aren’t a large company with huge profits. As a small business the cost of labor is one of the main factors. Fifteen dollars an hour, that’s a lot of money to ask from a small business.” 换句话说,尽管运营一家企业时,承受并消化小量的成本可能是个司空见惯、总在发生的事,但盈亏底线是个主要的因素。“帕记披萨和意粉”店的Bobby Denovski呼应了Salvatore的观点:“我们不是那种利润巨大的大公司。对于小企业来说,主要因素之一就是劳工成本。15美元一小时,这种要价对于小企业来说可是一大笔钱。” When asked what effect he could foresee the escalating minimum wage law having on his business, Denovski commented, “It could put us all out looking for jobs. We have a couple more years paying on the loan for our restaurant. If we end up paying this $15 an hour, we are honestly in danger of losing it.” 当被问及不断升级的最低工资法将来会对其生意产生何种影响时,Denovski评论说,“我们可能都会被迫出去找工作了。我们的餐馆还有几年贷款需要还。如果最终我们需要支付15美元的时薪,我们真的可能会失去餐馆。” Likewise, The Recycling Depot, as a metals recycling business, is subject to sometimes-dramatic market fluctuations. Metal values can skyrocket, allowing ample room to treat employees well, and values can plummet, leaving the business struggling to survive. Said Salvatore of the times when the market is up, “We do take care of our employees during those times. We give bonuses and things like that. However what about the lean times? This is going to have a dramatic effect on us during the lean times. You can’t just start taking the pay away.” 同样,从事金属回收生意的“回收站”也承受着市场波动,时不时还非常剧烈。金属价格可能飙升,此时企业就有足够的空间来更好对待员工,但价格也可能跳水,那样企业就只能竭力求生。谈及市场向好的时候,Salvatore说,“那种时候我们确实会照顾自己的员工。我们提供奖金等类似东西。但生意差的时候呢?在生意差的时候,这会给我们造成巨大的影响。减少支出都来不及。” A Cost to the General Public 一般公众的损失 If costs cannot be simply absorbed by the company, another option is to raise the price of the product. Bobby Denovski stated, “The only thing I can do is to raise the prices. I worry that the demand for pizza in the community will not support the prices we will have to go to when the wages go up.” How much is a pizza worth to those in his community? How about a gallon of milk? Those claiming the minimum wage will have no ill effect on the community should be asking themselves these questions, because at some point most small business owners such as Denovski must find a way to recoup these costs. 如果成本不能简单地由企业承担,还有一个选项就是提高产品价格。Bobby Denovski称,“我唯一能做就是提高价格。如果工资上涨,我们就必须抬高价位,我担心我所在社区的披萨需求不足以支持我们的这种要价。”在他的社区,一份披萨应该要价多少?一加仑牛奶呢?那些声称最低工资不会对社区产生不良影响的人应当问问自己这些问题,因为到了某个时候,绝大多数小企业主,如Denovski一样,都会想办法转移这些成本。 Referring again to fluctuating values in the metals market, Salvatore stated, “We’re very dependent on the global prices of metals. When the metal values drop, we’re making less money and our margins shrink. During times like this there are a lot of businesses just trying to stay afloat.” And so he is forced to try to pass on the costs in another manner. Salvatore再一次谈及金属市场的波动价格:“我们对全球金属价格有很大的依赖。金属价格下跌时,我们赚的钱就减少,利润收缩。碰到这种时候,大量的企业只是谋求维持下去。”所以他将被迫以另一种方式把成本传递出去。 As a metals recycling business, The Recycling Depot purchases metals from other businesses and from the general public, then sells those metals based on current market prices. Because Salvatore has no control over the sale price (dictated by global supply and demand), the only thing he can do is to drop the prices he is paying the public for those metals, illustrating the second point (a cost to the public) in another light. 从事金属回收行业的“回收站”从别的企业及一般公众手里收购金属,然后依照当前市场价格将这些金属卖出。由于Salvatore没有办法控制销售价格(它由全球供给和全球需求决定),他唯一能做的就是压低他支付给公众的金属收购价格,这从另一个方面说明了我们提出的第二点(公众的损失)。 Lower Expenses 降低开支 Absent the ability to absorb the higher wages or pass on the costs to someone else, a third way to compensate is to lower expenses. On the surface this sounds harmless enough. However, it often means the disappearance of jobs. 要是没有能力承担更高的工资或将成本传递给其他人,那么还有第三种弥补办法,那就是降低开支。表面看来这种做法相当无害。但是,它通常意味着工作岗位消失。 At Borracchini’s Bakery in Seattle, a business that has been open for 94 years, Remo Borracchini has a long history of hiring youth. “I myself have probably hired 1,500 young people over the years. I have had people come here as teenagers and stay here as much as 25 years, so they came and learned a trade,” said Borracchini. 西雅图的“博记烘焙”是一家已经开业94年的企业,店主Remo Borracchini 历来喜欢雇佣年轻人。“多年以来,我本人可能雇佣了1500个年轻人。我手下有些人,来的时候还是个少年,然后就在这工作了25年。他们来我这里,学会了一门生意”,Borrachini这样说道。 He has brought in high-school students who have never worked a job and started them washing pots and pans, stocking shelves, and mopping floors. While the wages many of these new hires make is not a large sum, Borracchini sees a bigger picture: 他曾招过一些从未干过任何工作的高中生,让他们从刷盘子洗碗、装货架、拖地开始干起。尽管这些新进员工所赚取的工资并不多,Borracchini看到的却是一幅更大的图景:
It’s not that we’re just looking for cheap labor. It’s the understanding that you’re doing something for these young people other than sending them out to wander aimlessly through the neighborhoods. You see, I do believe we have a responsibility to our young people. There used to be internships throughout industry. Now that has changed. 并不是说我们只是为了找些廉价劳工。我们的理解是,你是在帮这些年轻人做点什么事,没有让他们在社区中没头没脑地游窜。跟你说,我确实相信我们对年轻人负有责任。过去,各行各业都有实习。现在事情发生了变化。 They used to go into places like print shops, or bakeries and come to begin learning a trade; that was their reimbursement, they were learning something that would benefit them throughout their life. Now they’ve passed a law saying they have to be paid a wage. So what happens? If you’re going to have to pay someone who doesn’t know anything, you might as well pay someone who already knows something. 过去,他们要去文印店或面包店等类似地方,开始学习一门行当;那相当于他们的回报,他们是在学习某种将会受益终身的东西。现在有人制定一条法律,说是必须给他们支付工资。那会发生什么呢?如果有人啥都不懂,你也必须要支付他工资,那你还不如向那些懂点什么的人支付工资。Continued Borracchini, Borracchini继续说,
Businesses like McDonald’s, they built their empire not on a philosophy of it being a high paying job, but to take kids who have never worked before, teach them a little bit about work ethic and how to perform, and they move on to better opportunities when they have shown they have a bit of ability. You’ll begin to see the order screens in every type of McDonald’s scenario. Look at the jobs they’re eliminating right there. Kids who would be learning to show up for work on time, learning how to interact with the public, how to have a bit of work ethic. 像麦当劳这种企业帝国,它的建基哲学并不是它之作为一种高薪职位,而是它招募此前从未工作过的人,教给他们一点工作伦理和如何履职,然后当他们表现出具备一定能力时,就能前进一步,迈向更好的机会。以后你会看到各式各样的麦当劳式情景,大家都开始用点菜屏。看看他们正在消灭的工作。孩子们本来可以学会按时上班,学会如何与公众打交道,如何具备一点工作伦理。Salvatore echoed Borracchini, stating that in order to recoup labor costs, jobs would almost certainly be cut, “at least cutting hours back if not completely doing away with jobs. The well is not bottomless.” Salvatore呼应了Borrachini,并说,为了弥补劳工成本,工作岗位几乎肯定会被削减,“如果不是彻底废除岗位,至少需要减少雇佣时长。井中的水毕竟是有限的。” At Padrino’s, a clearly concerned Denovski stated, “Right now it’s [the minimum wage] at $11 an hour and it is already difficult for me and my partner to keep the bills paid and the employees paid. They’re going to be raising that expense up to $15, but none of our other costs will be going down. I honestly don’t know what we’re going to do.” “帕记”的Denovski明显很是担心,他说,“现在的最低工资是时薪11美元,而我和我的合伙人已经感到难以偿付账单、支付员工工资。他们还要将这一开支提高到15美元,而我们的其他成本都不会降低。我真的不知道我们有什么办法。” Salvatore then commented on a worst-case scenario, “Eventually we have to tighten the ropes, and then what happens when there’s nothing left in the reserve?” Indeed, what does happen? What happens to the low-skill workers looking for a job? Where will the teenager or young adult go for training when McDonald’s has automated order screens? As Borracchini said, “It is the internship and low-skill jobs which will be cut. We will have sent them back out onto the street.” 然后,Salvatore就最坏的情形作了评论,“最终我们必须拉紧裤腰带,如果没有剩下任何储备,那会发生什么呢?”确实,会发生什么呢?对于那些找工作的低技术工人,会发生什么呢?当麦当劳开始用自动点菜屏时,少年或刚刚成年的人们要去哪里接受训练?正如Borracchini所说,“被削减的会是那些实习岗位和低技术岗位。我们将不得不把他们送回街上。” Help or Harm? 帮助还是伤害? Seattle businesses obviously view the new minimum wage law with quite a bit of trepidation. It is easy to see why. These companies will have to find a way to recuperate the costs one way or another. No matter how it ends up happening, it will be a detriment to the community and the city. 西雅图的企业显然正以相当程度的恐惧看待最低工资新法。很容易发现原因所在。这些公司都必须寻找各种办法来弥补成本。不管最终会发生什么,它对于社区和整个城市都是一种损害。 In “The Tax & Budget Bulletin” by The Cato Institute dated March 2014, Joseph J. Sabia, associate professor of economics at San Diego State University, explains how a minimum wage affects the poor’s standard of living and employment opportunities: 在加图研究所2014年3月的“税收与预算简报”中,圣迭戈州立大学的经济学副教授Joseph J. Sabia就最低工资会如何影响穷人的生活水平和就业机会作出了解释:
The bulletin concludes that minimum wage increases almost always fail to meet proponents’ policy objectives and often hurt precisely the vulnerable populations that advocates wish to help. The weight of the science suggests that policymakers should abandon higher minimum wages as an antiquated anti-poverty tool. Minimum wages deter employment and are poorly targeted to those in need. 简报的结论是,提高最低工资几乎总是不能实现其支持者的政策目标,而且通常都会恰好伤害到鼓吹者们想要帮助的脆弱群体。科学表明,决策者们应当放弃提高最低工资这种早已过时的反贫困工具。最低工资伤害就业,而且对于身处困境的人们来说真是南辕北辙。His words echo the business owners quoted here. Says Borracchini, “I can sympathize with someone who is trying to raise a family. Fifteen dollars is not a lot of money. It’s very difficult. However, there is an element of society who through laws like this are being denied a great privilege. The opportunity to learn how to work.” 他的言论正与我们此处所引企业主的言论互相呼应。Borracchini说,“有人要努力养活一家人,这我能够同情。15美元并不是很大一笔钱。世事艰难。但是,通过这种法律,社会中有一部分人将无法享有一项重要的权利。那就是学会如何工作的机会。” The bottom line is that the minimum wage law was supposedly created to help the poor and needy in our society. However, it is the low-skill and poor who will feel the effect first and foremost, and who will find it much more difficult to acquire the job skills needed to raise the value of their labor to or above the minimum wage. 这里的底线是,最低工资法的创设,本意是为了帮助我们社会中的穷人和急需帮助的人群。但是,首当其冲感受到其影响的就是低技术人口和贫困人口,他们将发现,要将自己的劳动价值提高到或超过最低工资,就必须获得工作技能,而这将变得比以前更难。 As voices cry ever louder for an increased federal minimum wage, the stories of small businesses across the nation need to be brought into the spotlight — businesses reaching out to unskilled youth willing to put in time training. Companies managing a tight bottom line can’t handle the extra expense of yet another increase in wages. 随着提高联邦最低工资的呼声与日俱增,有必要将全美小企业的故事带到台前——这些企业都在向那些技能不足但愿意花时间接受训练的年轻人敞开双臂。盈亏底线很紧张的公司没有办法应对未来工资再次上涨所带来的额外开支。 The heart of our nation does not lie within the halls of Congress but rather in the bakeries, pizza shops, recycling centers, and myriad other small businesses. It is not in the backroom deals between politicians where the effects of these laws will be felt, but rather in the checking accounts of struggling businesses. 我们民族的心脏并不位于国会的办公大楼里,而是位于各家烘焙店、披萨店、回收中心以及种种其他小企业中。要感受到这些法律的效果,不是去看政客之间的暗箱交易,而需要去看艰难度日的各家企业的存款账户。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。
——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——
【2016-05-24】
@whigzhou: 自由市场制度下,财产的初始分配根本不重要,整个宾夕法尼亚的土地起初全归小威廉·潘恩一人所有,这一事实对该州后来的社会结构有多大影响?彩票发明那么多年了,每年都有人中亿万大奖,你听说过哪个显贵家族是靠祖上中彩票发达的?
@whigzhou: 在《儿子照样升起》第15章里,Clark举了两项有关意外横财是否影响家庭长期命运的研究,结论都是:完全没有统计上可观察的正面影响。其中(more...)
【2016-05-08】
@吴军博士 发布了头条文章:里根可能是唯一一位能称得上是政治家的总统,1964年他在共和党大会上作了题为《抉择的时刻》,铿锵有力,掷地有声,从此一举成名。今天听起来,依然能够感受到一个保守主义者的卓实远见。全文如下: °里根1964年著名的讲演《抉择的时刻》 http://t.cn/Rqn1cnZ
@whigzhou: 这篇演讲其他都很好,我唯一不同意的是开头有关赤字和债务的观点,幸好里根上台后抛弃了这个立(more...)
“小小奇迹”不再:美国劳动收入占比下降
A Bit of a Miracle No More:The Decline of the Labor Share
作者:Roc Armenter @ 2015-三季刊
译者:Veidt(@Veidt)
校对:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值)
来源:Business Review,https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/business-review/2015/q3/brq315_a_bit_of_a_miracle_no_more.pdf
How is income divided between labor and capital? Every dollar of income earned by U.S. households can be classified as either labor earnings — wages and other forms of compensation — or capital earnings — interest or dividend payments and rent. The split between labor and capital income informs economists’ thinking on several topics and plays a key role in debates regarding income inequality and long-run economic growth. Unfortunately, distinguishing between labor and capital income is not always an easy task.
收入是如何在劳动和资本之间分配的?美国家庭所赚取的每一块钱都可以被归类为劳动收入(工资或其它形式的劳动补偿)或资本收益(利息、股利和租金等)。收入在劳动和资本之间的分配为经济学家们关于许多经济学议题的思考提供了重要信息,并且在关于收入不平等和长期经济增长这些问题的争论中扮演着核心角色。不幸的是,将劳动收入与资本收入区分开并非总是一件易事。
Until recently, the division between labor and capital income had not received much attention. The reason was quite simple: Labor’s share never ventured far from 62 percent of total U.S. income for almost 50 years — through expansions, recessions, high and low inflation, and the long transition from an economy primarily based on manufacturing to one mainly centered on services.
一直以来,区分劳动收入和资本收入的问题并没有受到太大关注,直到最近才有所改观。原因很简单:在将近50年中,美国劳动收入在总收入中所占的比例从来不会偏离62%这个数字太远——不论经济是在扩张还是衰退,也不论通胀率是高是低,在美国经济从以制造业为基础向主要以服务业为核心的漫长转变过程中,这个比例一直很稳定。
As it happened, the overall labor share remained stable as large forces pulling it in opposite directions canceled each other out — a coincidence that John Maynard Keynes famously called “a bit of a miracle.” But the new millennium marked a turning point: Labor’s share began a pronounced fall that continues today.
劳动收入占比在多种强大力量的反向拉扯和相互抵消之下总体保持了稳定这件事情本身——按照约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的著名说法——可以称得上是个“小小奇迹”。但是新千年的到来却标志着一个重要的转折点:劳动收入占比开始明显下降,并且这个趋势一直持续到了现在。
Why did the labor share lose its “miraculous” stability and embark on a steep decline? To investigate this shift, economists must first be sure they are measuring the labor share correctly. Could measurement problems distort our understanding of what has happened to the labor share over time?
为什么劳动收入占比会失去它“奇迹般”的稳定性而开始急剧下降?要研究这一转变,经济学家们的首要任务是确保他们测量劳动收入占比的方法是准确的。测量方法存在问题会歪曲我们对于长期以来劳动收入占比所发生的变化的理解吗?
In this article, I explain the inherent challenges in measuring the labor share and introduce several alternative definitions designed to address some of the measurement problems. As we will see, the overall trend is confirmed across a wide range of definitions.
在这篇文章中,我将解释在测量劳动收入占比时所面临的内在挑战,并介绍几种旨在解决其中一些测量问题的替代性定义。正如我们将看到的,基于一系列不同定义的测量结果都证实了劳动收入占比总体上的下降趋势。
Economists do not yet have a full understanding of the causes behind the labor share’s decline. We can make some progress, though, by noting the impact of wage and productivity trends and shifts between industries. Finally, I discuss several popular hypotheses, based on concurrent phenomena, such as widening wage inequality and globalization, that may account for the labor share’s sharp decline.
经济学家们至今还未能全面地理解劳动收入占比下降背后的原因。即便如此,通过研究工资和生产率的变化趋势以及产业的变迁,我们仍然可以取得一些进展。最后,我将讨论一些流行的假设。这些基于诸如薪资不平等程度加深以及全球化等并发现象的假设也许能解释劳动收入占比的急剧下降。
MEASURING THE U.S. LABOR SHARE
测量美国的劳动收入占比
By construction, all income accounted for in the U.S. economy must be earned either by capital or labor. In some cases, we can easily see whether our income comes from labor or capital: when we earn a wage or a bonus through our labor or when we earn interest from our savings or investment account, which is attributed to capital income, despite the fact that most of us would not think of ourselves as investors.
从定义上说,美国经济中任何的收入要么被资本赚取了,要么就是被劳动赚取了[i]。在一些情形中,我们可以很容易地看出我们的收入是来自于劳动还是资本:当我们通过劳动赚到一份工资或者奖金时,这部分收入显然来自于劳动;虽然我们中的大部分人并不认为自己是投资者,但当我们从储蓄或投资账户中获得利息或投资收益时,这部分收入很明显应该被归为资本收入。
However, it is not always immediately apparent that all income eventually accrues to either capital or labor. For example, when we buy our groceries — creating income for the grocer — we are only vaguely aware that we are also paying the producers, farm workers, and transporters as well as for the harvesters, trucks, trains, coolers, and other capital equipment involved in producing and distributing what we purchase. However, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) constructs the national income and product accounts, it combines data from expenditures and income to ensure that every dollar spent is also counted as a dollar earned by either capital or labor.
然而,所有的收入最终都会被归为资本收入或劳动收入这一点并不总是那么显而易见。举个例子,当我们从杂货店里买东西时——这显然为杂货店主创造了收入——我们仅仅模糊地意识到我们所付的钱同样也为货物的生产者、农场工人、运输工人创造了收入,除此以外,我们还为投资于收割机、卡车、制冷装置和其它一些参与我们所购买货物的生产和分销过程的设备的资本创造了收入。而国家经济分析局(BEA)在构建国民收入和生产账户时将来自支出和来自收入的数据合并在一起,以保证任何一美元的支出也同样要么被资本赚取,要么被劳动赚取。
Of course, nothing is ever so simple economic statistics. First, we lack the detail necessary to split some components of the income data between labor and capital returns. As I (more...)
——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——