Why Education Does Not Fix Poverty 为什么教育不能解决贫困问题 作者：Matt Bruenig @ 2015-12-2 译者：龟海海 校对：小册子（@昵称被抢的小册子） 来源：Demos，http://www.demos.org/blog/12/2/15/why-education-does-not-fix-poverty Brookings and the American Enterprise Institute claim to have hatched a bipartisan consensus plan for reducing poverty. As exciting as that sounds, the details of the plan, unfortunately, won't be available until David Brooks unveils them at an event on December 3rd. Nonetheless, it's clear from the materials they have released that the consensus plan will focus on three things: education, marriage, and work. 布鲁金斯学会和美国企业协会声称已研究出一个双方都认同的计划来减少贫困【编注：布鲁金斯学会和美国企业协会分别是美国自由派和保守派阵营最具影响力的智库】。尽管听起来很令人激动，但不幸的是，David Brooks要等到12月3日的一个活动上才会公布这个计划的详情。尽管如此，根据他们之前所公布的一些资料，他们的共同计划将主要集中在三个方面：教育，婚姻和工作。 In the next few posts, I will attack all three focuses as misguided. Today's focus will be on education, easily the most misguided of the three. 在随后的文章中我会逐步抨击所有这三个误导性的焦点。今天我将说一说教育，也是三个中最具误导性的。 1. Rehearsing the Education Poverty Argument 1. 回顾教育改变贫穷的观点 To see where the education poverty argument goes wrong, it's helpful to explain what that argument is first. In this post, I am going to do that by pretending initially that we are in the year 1991. That year has no special significance other than that it's the year the modern Census education questions begin. 要看清这个教育改变贫穷的观点哪里不对劲，有必要先解释一下这个观点是什么。在本文中，我会首先假装我们生活在1991年。那一年除了人口普查中开始出现教育相关问题，没有什么特别的事件。 So imagine you are an education-focused poverty person living in 1991. You peer out into the world of basic social statistics and you see this graph of adult poverty rates broken down by education: 那么我们来想象一下，你生活在1991年，并且关注通过教育改变贫穷。你往基础社会统计的世界里张望，看到这幅按教育程度统计的成人贫穷率图表：   You notice something very striking about the graph: the higher the education, the lower the poverty rate. You go back out into the social statistics universe and you see this graph breaking down the distribution of adults across the various educational groups: 你在该图表里发现一些很令人震惊的东西：学历越高，贫困率越低。 然后你再回到社会统计领域之中，看到这幅成年人的教育程度分布图： You combine this graph with the poverty rate graph in your mind and you have an epiphany. Because the lower educational bins have higher poverty rates and the higher educational bins have lower poverty rates, if we change the composition of adults such that a greater percentage of them wind up in the higher educational bins, that will mean lower overall poverty. 你把该图和之前的贫穷率图表综合起来，然后你瞬间顿悟。因为低学历的格子里有较高贫困率，高学历的格子里有较低贫困率，如果我们把成年人的组成换一换，多一点人落入较高学历的格子里，那总体的贫困率就会降低。 So, for instance, if we could move 9 points off the "less than high school" bar and on to the "associate" (or better) bars, we would definitely see lower poverty. After all, you are moving people out of a high poverty bin and into low poverty bins. Similarly, if you could move 6.5 points of the "high school" bar and on to the "associate" (or better) bars, you'd see lower poverty for the same reason. 举个例子，如果我们把“低于高中”中的9个百分点，移动到“大专”（或以上）的格子里去，我们肯定会看到更低的贫困率。总之，你是在把人从高贫困率的格子里，移动到低贫困率的格子里去。类似的，如果你能把“高中”中的6.5个百分点，移动到“大专”（或以上）的格子里，你同样会看到更低的贫困率。 2. It Didn't Work 2. 然并卵 Since 1991, we have done precisely what the education-focused poverty people said to do. Between 1991 and 2014, we steadily reduced the share of adults in the "less than high school" and "high school" bins and increased the share of adults in every other bin: 从1991年起，我们完全按照这帮关注教育改善贫穷的人所说的去做。在1991年和2014年之间，我们稳步降低了成人中“低于高中”和“高中”的比率，令其他人群比率提高： By 2014, the share of adults in the "less than high school" bin declined 9 points from 20.6% to 11.6%. The share of adults in the "high school" bin declined 6.5 points from 36% to 29.5%. Meanwhile, the share of adults with an Associate degree went up 3.9 points, the share with a Bachelor's degree went up 8.3 points, and the share with a post-Bachelor's degree went up 4.8 points. 截至2014年，成年人中“低于高中”这部分已经降低了9个百分点，从20.6%降到了11.6%。成年人中“高中”这部分下降了6.5个百分点，从36%降到了29.5%。同时成年人中拥有大专学历的上涨了3.9个百分点，拥有学士学位的上涨了8.3个百分点，拥有学士以上学历的增长了4.8个百分点。 If the poverty rates for each educational bin remained the same, then the upward redistribution of adults from the lower bins to the higher bins would have led to lower overall poverty. But that's not what happened. 如果各个教育层次的贫困率都保持不变，将成年人从低学历移向高学历应该导致整体贫困率下降才是。但是，这却并未发生。 Instead, the poverty rate for each educational bin went up over this time and overall poverty didn't decline at all. In fact it went up. 实际上，各个教育层次的贫困率在这一时期都上升了，总体贫困率根本没有降低，反而是上升了。 By 2014, the "less than high school" poverty rate had increased 3.7 points. The "high school" poverty rate increased 4.6 points. "Some college" went up 4.1 points, "associate" went up 3.8 points, "bachelor's" went up 2.1 points, and "post-bachelor's" went up 1.7. Despite the educational gains, overall adult poverty in 2014 was actually 1.1 points higher than in 1991. 截至2014年，“低于高中”这栏的贫困率提高了3.7个点。“高中”的贫困率增长4.6个点。“专科院校”增长了4.1个点，“大专”上升3.8个点，“学士”增长2.1点，“学士以上”上升1.7点。尽管学历水平得到提高，但2014年的总体贫困率却比1991年高了1.1个点。 As the adults migrated up the educational bins, they took the poverty into the higher educational bins with them: 随着教育程度提高，成年人把贫困也带入了更高的教育程度之中： Over this period, the share of poor adults with "less than high school" education plummeted 20.1 points from 48.3 points to 28.2 points. Every other educational bin saw share gains of 2.6 to 5 points. 在这期间，贫困成年人中“低于高中”文化水平的占比大跌了20.1个点，从48.3%降到了28.2%。其余每个教育程度都大约增长了2.6到5个点。 Adults these days are as educated as they have ever been, but poverty is no lower than it was in 1991. This is not because the few lingering people with "less than high school" have soaked up all the poverty. Quite the contrary: poverty has simply moved up the educational scale. The poor in 2014 were the most educated poor in history. 如今成年人的教育程度空前之高，但是贫困率并不比1991年低。这不是因为少数学历“低于高中”又游手好闲的人占据了贫困。正好相反，贫困问题在向高教育程度人群转移。2014年的贫困人口是有史以来教育程度最高的。 3. Why It Doesn't Work 3. 为什么没有用 There are a number reasons why aggregate education gains do not necessarily translate into aggregate poverty declines. I will discuss three here. 总体教育程度提高未必转化为总体贫困率下降，这当中有很多原因。我在此说三点。 First, handing out more high school and college diplomas doesn't magically create more good-paying jobs. When more credentials are chasing the same number of decent jobs, what you get is credential inflation: jobs that used to require a high school degree now require a college degree; jobs that used to require an Associate degee now require a Bachelor's degreee; and so on. 第一，发出更多的高中和大学文凭并未能像变魔术般的创造出更多高薪工作。当更多更闪耀的文凭来争夺同样多的好工作时，你得到的是文凭通胀：那些本来要求高中文凭的工作现在要求大学文凭；那些本来要求大专学历的工作现在要求本科学历，依此类推。 Obviously the supply of good-paying jobs is not a fixed constant of nature, but there is no reason to think that the supply will automatically go up to match the number of people with the necessary credentials. The types of jobs available in a society, and their level of compensation, is determined by many factors (demand, worker power, technology, global competition, natural resources, etc.) that have little to do with the number of degrees that society is minting. 显然，好工作的供给并非一成不变，但也没有理由相信好工作会随着合格的文凭增多而增多。社会中的工作类别，以及薪金水平，是由很多因素决定的（需求，工会力量，技术，全球竞争，自然资源，等等），这些因素和社会上颁发的文凭数量并没有多大关系。 Second, having more education does not necessarily increase people's productive capacity. Those in the know will identify this as the old "signaling v. human capital" point. The short of it is that, even if jobs did automatically pop into existence to match people's level of productive ability, it's not at all clear that college education necessarily does a lot to increase people's productive ability. Instead, what college education does (at least in part) is signal to employers that you have a certain level of relative "quality" over others in society. 第二，接受更多教育并不意味着更高的生产率。内行人会发现这是古老的“信号传递对人力资本”理论的要点【编注：这是解释教育程度与薪酬水平关系的两种理论，前者认为文凭传递了有关个人禀赋的信号，后者认为教育确实提升了人力资本的生产率】。简单地说，即使自动会有工作职位来匹配人们的产出能力水平，大学教育是否对提高人们的产出能力有很大作用也完全不明确。而大学教育所做的是（至少一部分是）向雇主发出一个信号：你相比社会上其他的人“优秀”一些。 As more people get degrees, the value of this signal declines, but more importantly, the point is that the degree was always a signal, not a productivity enhancer. 然而，当越来越多的人拿到文凭时，这个信号就变弱了，更重要的是，文凭永远只是一个信号，并非产出能力的推进器。 Third, poverty is really about non-working people: children, elderly, disabled, students, carers, and the unemployed. The big things that cause poverty for adults over the age of 25 in a low-welfare capitalist society—old-age, disability, unemployment, having children—do not go away just because you have a better degree. 第三，贫困的是那些不工作的人：孩子，老人，残疾人，学生，照顾家人者和无业者。在一个低福利资本主义社会，导致25岁以上成年人贫困的罪魁祸首——老龄化，残疾，失业，育儿——不会仅仅因为你有了个更好文凭而消失。 These poverty-inducing circumstances are social constants that could strike anyone of us and do strike many of us at some point in our lives. To the extent that education does nothing to provide better income support for those who do find themselves in these vulnerable situations, its effect on overall poverty levels will always be weak, or, as with the US in the last 23 years, totally nonexistent. 这些导致贫穷的境况在社会中总是存在的，我们每个人都有可能遇到，并且必定有很多人在生命中的某一个时刻会遇到。既然教育不能帮助那些身处窘境的人们或得更多收入，那它对整体贫困水平的影响就必然很微弱，或者正如在美国过去23年的情况那样，根本不存在。

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Technical note. For this post, I used the Official Poverty Metric (OPM) to measure poverty. This is mainly because it's the only metric for which publicly accessible microdata exists back to 1991. The OPM is deeply flawed because it excludes from its calculation taxes, tax credits, and non-cash benefits like WIC, Section 8, and Food Stamps. 技术性注解：在本文中，我运用了官方贫困数据（OPM）来量化贫困，主要是因为这是唯一公众可以查找到的1991年前的微观数据。由于没有考虑所得税、税收抵免，以及包括低收入妇女儿童健康营养补助，《住房法案》第八章下的住房补贴和食物救济券在内的非现金福利，该OPM数据有很大的缺陷。 Because the alleged poverty-reducing mechanism of higher educational attainment is that it increases market income (not welfare income or income from refundable tax credits), the OPM's flaws are not really relevant here. In short, the OPM, despite its problems, works perfectly fine here. 因为所谓高学历可以减少贫困的观点着眼于提高市场收入（而非福利收入或税收抵免返还），所以与OPM的缺陷并不相关。简而言之，尽管OPM有所不足，但在这里引用绝对没有问题。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

The case of the missing “u”s in American English 美式英语缺失的u 作者：Olivia Goldhill @2016-1-17 译者：林翠(@cwlinnil) 校对：小册子(@昵称被抢的小册子) 来源：Quartz，http://qz.com/596395/the-case-of-the-missing-us-in-american-english/ When my American editor asked me to research why Brits spell their words with so many extra ‘u’s, I immediately knew he had it all wrong. As a British journalist, it’s perfectly obvious to me that we have the correct number of ‘u’s, and that American spelling has lost its vowels along the way. 我的编辑，美国人，约我写文探讨英国人拼写词汇时用到的那么多额外的u，我第一反应是他从提法上就错了。在我这位英国记者看来，毫无疑问，我们用的u不多不少，是美国人不知从何时起丢掉了一些元音。 “Color,” “honor,” and “favor” all look quite stubby to me—they’re positively crying out to be adorned with a few extra ‘u’s. 像color，honor，favor这样的词，以我看来又粗又短——正不停哭叫着要找回那些额外的u来装扮其容貌。 But it turns out that the “o(u)r” suffix has quite a confused history. The Online Etymology Dictionary reports that –our comes from old French while –or is Latin. English has used both endings for several centuries. Indeed, the first three folios of Shakespeare’s plays reportedly used both spellings equally. 但其实，o(u)r这个后缀来历挺复杂。查在线词源词典，-our来自古法文，-or来自拉丁文。曾经有好几百年，两种结尾同时在英文里使用。例如，在莎士比亚戏剧前三版的对开本里，据说两种拼写就不加区分。 But by the late 18th and early 19th centuries, both the US and the UK started to solidify their preferences, and did so differently. 但在十八世纪后期至十九世纪前期，美国人和英国人各自确立了截然不同的偏好。 The US took a particularly strong stand thanks to Noah Webster, American lexicographer and co-namesake of the Merriam-Webster dictionaries. Webster was a language reformer and, as Merriam-Webster.com notes, the creator of a dictionary in 1806 that attempted to rectify some of the inconsistencies he observed in English spelling. He preferred to use the –or suffix and also suggested many other successful changes, such as reversing “re” to create “theater” and “center,” rather than “theatre” and centre.” 美式拼写立场特别明确，这要归功于美国词典编纂家诺亚·韦伯斯特，即《韦氏词典》的韦氏。韦伯斯特是当年的语言革新人物，据公司官网Merriam-Webster.com 提供的资料，他在1806年出版词典，目的之一是澄清某些不一致的英文拼写。他选择了后缀 -or，除此还有很多得到采用的改动，比如对调 -re为-er后，造出theater和center，代替了原有的theatre和centre。 However, other Webster proposals, such as changing “tongue” to “tung,” “women” to “wimmen,” “island” to “iland,” and “thumb” to “thum” were ultimately rejected. 韦伯斯特也有过一些别的提议，后来没有得到认可，例如把tongue换成tung，women换成wimmen，island换成iland，thumb换成thum。 Meanwhile in the UK, Samuel Johnson wrote A Dictionary of the English Language in 1755. Johnson was far more of a spelling purist than Webster, and decided that in cases where the origin of the word was unclear, it was more likely to have a French than Latin root. “We have few Latin words, among the terms of domestick use, which are not French,” wrote Johnson. And so he preferred –our to –or. 而在英国，塞缪尔·约翰逊博士于1755年编就《英文字典》。约翰逊博士远比韦伯斯特更热衷于拼写纯正化。并且断定，如果一个词来源不清楚，那它更可能拥有法文词根，而非拉丁词根。约翰逊博士的说法是：“我们平常用的词里面，非法语来源的拉丁词不多。”所以， -our与 -or之间他选择 -our。 “I have endeavoured to proceed with a scholar’s reverence for antiquity, and a grammarian’s regard to the genius of our tongue,” he wrote. As such, he “attempted few alterations.” 他写道：“学者崇奉古老传统，语法家则看重吾辈口舌之灵巧，我始终以此两者自勉。”有鉴于此，他“尽量不作改动。” So while the UK chose to preserve linguistic roots, the US opted to modernize spelling. And if you’re wondering which country got it right, the answer is, well, neither. Language is constantly evolving, and the US and UK simply went their different linguistic ways. 总而言之，在英国人选择保护词源时，美国人则选择改革拼写。谁对谁错的问题没有意义。语言在不断地演变，英美只是走上了不同进化道路，如此而已。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

The Kremlin’s Theatre of Tyranny 克里姆林宫的暴君戏 作者：Mark Galeotti @ 2015-12-26 译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 校对：龟海海 来源：Russia!，http://readrussia.com/2015/12/26/the-kremlins-theatre-of-tyranny/ Modern Russia is no haven of human rights, but nor is it a “vicious tyranny,” a heavy-handed autocracy, a neo-Stalinism in the remaking or any of the other exercises in horrified hyperbole indulged in by some commentators. 现代俄罗斯并非人权避风港，但它也算不上“邪恶暴政”、铁腕独裁，或某些评论家乐此不疲的怂人听闻——新斯大林主义东山再起。 The irony, though, is that sometimes it suits the Kremlin to seem so. If in the days when archetypal political technologist Vladislav Surkov was the Kremlin’s choreographer in chief, the name of the dramaturgiya was fake democracy, then today it often appears to be fake tyranny. 不过讽刺的是，有时候克里姆林宫看上去还真好像配得上这些评价。如果说在弗拉基斯拉夫·苏尔科夫这位典型的政治技术家担任克里姆林宫舞蹈总监时【译注：苏尔科夫是俄罗斯“主权民主”概念的主要提出者，该概念意在区别于西式民主】，演技（dramaturgiya）的定义叫做“伪民主”的话，那么如今它似乎更应该叫做“伪专制”。 Shooting Itself in the Foot? 砸自己的脚？ Consider, for example, the latest, spine-chilling initiative of the Duma, granting the security forces the right to open fire on crowds, on women (so long as they do not appear pregnant, a bizarre humanitarian grace note or a genuflection to the need to reverse demographic decline?), or even on the disabled, if necessary to prevent or defeat a terrorist attack. 比如，想想国家杜马最近通过的那个令人不寒而栗的法案吧。该法案授予安全部队为阻止或打击恐怖主义，必要时可以对人群、妇女开火（怀孕的除外，这到底是个奇怪的人道主义装饰音符呢，还是为了扭转人口衰退的不得已之举呢？），甚至对残疾人开火的权利。 Between the very subject matter – time to pass some new macabre ordnance on the right way and time to shoot your own citizens – and what it seems to say about the Kremlin’s fear of its own people, it understandably attracted attention and alarm amongst both Russian and Western observers. 不难理解，这一事件本身——是时候该颁布新规：如何在正确的时间和方法对付本国公民——以及它所透露出的克里姆林宫对自己人民的恐惧，都引来了包括俄国和西方在内的观察人士的注意及警惕。 And so it should, especially as it coincides with apparent moves to strengthen the very arms of the state most concerned with suppressing the populace. While the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) as a whole, for example, has had to absorb a 10% across the board budget cut, the OMON riot police appear to have been protected from any cuts. Although they represent only a small proportion of the MVD, nonetheless that inevitably means more cuts in regular, front-line policing. 这是理所应当的，特别是此事发生的同时，俄国还明显采取行动要强化与镇压民众最为密切相关的政府强力部门。比如，虽然内务部（MVD）作为一个整体必须承受10%的全面预算削减，但“特种部队”（OMON）的防暴警察似乎得以免遭任何削减。虽然他们只是内务部里的一个小单位，但即便如此，这也必然意味着普通的一线警务将承担更多的预算削减。 Indeed, it emerged that the MVD is investing in, amongst other projects, lots more of a type of grenade launcher called the RGS-50M, increasing its stocks of them five-fold. This is essentially an anti-riot weapon, used to fire rubber bullets and stun and gas grenades, and very much an OMON toy. 事实上，我们发现，内务部投入的许多项目中，有一项是加大力度购买某种叫做RG5-50M的枪榴弹发射器，其在内务部的存量已经翻了5倍。这主要是一种防暴武器，用于发射橡胶子弹、眩晕手榴弹和毒气手榴弹，基本上就是OMON的玩具。 Put together, all this suggests that the Kremlin, perhaps aware that the regime’s standing is rather less secure than those misleading sky-high personal approval ratings for Putin might suggest, is arming itself against some Moscow Maidan. With labor unrest on the rise – the truckers protesting road tolls are just the most visible tip of a disgruntled iceberg – and the 2016 Duma elections bound to focus public attention on promises made and broken, they may have a point. 所有这些综合起来看，表明克里姆林宫可能意识到，俄政权的地位并不像普京那些极高的个人支持率所错误显示的那样牢靠，因而正在武装自己，防止某种“莫斯科广场革命”发生。由于劳工骚乱在增加——抗议收取过路费的卡车司机只是愤怒冰山上最为醒目的一个小角，且2016年杜马选举必将吸引民众对选举许下的承诺和未实现的许诺的关注，克里姆林宫可能没想错。 Certainly news that the government, not least the Federal Protection Service (FSO), the Kremlin’s Praetorians, are monitoring opinion in the localities and throwing money at those looking most likely to experience unrest, seems also to suggest this. 当然，也有新闻提到，俄罗斯政府，尤其是身为克里姆林宫“禁卫军”的联邦警卫署（FSO）正在监测各地舆情，并且正在向那些最可能出现骚乱的地方砸钱。这似乎也能说明问题。 The interesting thing, though, is that the news of the RGS-50M purchase was covered by government news outlet TASS. And quite why did the Duma (because let’s face it, while a forum for all kinds of crazies to say all kind of crazy things, it doesn’t go to the bathroom without the nod from the Kremlin, let alone pass a bill) actually feel the need to enshrine the dos and don’t see of massacre in a law? 不过，有趣的是，购买RGS-50M的新闻是由政府新闻机构塔斯社报道出来的。而且杜马究竟为什么觉得有必要将“大屠杀指南”写进法律也是个问题（因为，说实在的，尽管杜马是个各种疯子在一起讨论各种疯事的论坛，但要是没有克里姆林宫点头，它连厕所都不敢上，遑论通过什么法律）。 Here, after all, is the dirty little secret of all governments: when they feel they must, they kill, and generally wherever and whenever the circumstances dictate. The Federal Security Service (FSB), the main subject of the new law, would not check the statute books before shooting presumed terrorists regardless of whether they were women or disabled. 毕竟，我们这里说的是所有政府共有的不可告人的秘密：当他们觉得必要时，只要为形势所迫，无论何时何地，他们都会杀人。新法的主角——联邦警卫署——在射杀可疑恐怖分子之前可不会去翻阅法律全书，不管后者是妇女还是残疾人。 But then again, neither would any Western security service. This is not, after all, a law encouraging heedless massacres and Bloody Sundays to be held every other month. Nor is the FSB governed by the 2011 Law on Police, which does set definite guidelines on the use of lethal and non-lethal force. So why make a song and dance of what would seem to be expressions of combined viciousness and insecurity? 不过话说回来，任何西方安全部门都不会这么做。毕竟这条法律并不是鼓励每隔一个月来一次随性的大屠杀或“血腥星期天”。联邦警卫署也不属2011年《警察法》管辖，但该法倒确实对使用致命和非致命武力有明确指导。所以，问题来了，为什么要载歌载舞的演这么一出给世人看，而其内容看起来仅仅是在表达邪恶与不安全感呢？ The Kremlin’s Gold Standard 克里姆林宫的黄金标准 Increasingly, it is references in the press to First Deputy Interior Minister Viktor Zolotov that seem to represent the gold standard, pun intended, of the Kremlin’s scare tactics. The former head of Putin’s bodyguard and one of his judo sparring partners, Zolotov has the reputation of being a maximalist in waiting, the kind of political policeman eager for the orders to deploy the knout and the iron fist. 媒体对内务部第一副部长维克托·佐罗托夫的报道，正日益成为克里姆林宫恐吓战术的黄金标准（此处一语双关）。佐罗托夫曾是普京的保镖头目，还是他的柔道陪练。他以随时待命的“最高纲领派”而出名，是那种极度渴望受命使用皮鞭和铁拳的政治警察。 After years as head of the presidential security detail, in 2013 he was moved to the MVD where he quickly rose from deputy commander of the Interior Troops to first deputy minister in charge of, hardly incidentally, this militarized domestic security force. 佐罗托夫曾任总统警卫部队负责人多年，于2013年调往内务部，很快就从内务部队副司令升为掌管这一负责国内保卫的军事力量的第一副部长，这绝非偶然。 Periodically, rumors float around in the press that he is poised to replace Interior Minister Viktor Kolokoltsev, a career policeman who, despite occasional forays into the kind of aggressive rhetoric seemingly expected of someone in his job, shows every sign of wanting to be a cop rather than a political enforcer. 媒体上定期地出现同样的谣言，说他被钦点接替内务部长维克多·科洛科利采夫。科洛科利采夫是位职业警察，尽管他也不时说出一些身处其位者可以预料会说出的咄咄逼人的言辞，但种种迹象表明他就是想做一个警察，而不想做政治打手。 Kolokoltsev succeeded a career political policeman, the former KGB officer Rashid Nurgaliev, and he was greeted with relief and enthusiasm within the MVD. Moving another political policeman into his office would likely be unpopular with the rank and file, as well as being a depressing symbol of a newly-repressive turn from the Kremlin. 科洛科利采夫的前任是一位职业政治警察，前KGB特工拉希德·努尔加利耶夫。科洛科利采夫上任时，内务部可是松了口气，热烈欢迎。这个位置上要是再来一个政治警察很可能不太受欢迎，无论是他的资历，还是作为克里姆林宫新压制转向的可悲象征。 However, unless and until the Kremlin feels it needs a tougher hand at the MVD, Zolotov’s greatest value appears to be precisely in his role as the bogeyman. Simply by airing the notion of his ascension, with all that could imply, is a way of signaling both that the Kremlin could empower much more fearsome agents and also that things are by no means as bad as they could be. 不过，除非且直到克里姆林宫当真觉得内务部需要一位更强硬的人手，否则佐罗托夫的更大价值恐怕恰恰在于扮演好他的唬人怪兽角色。只要散布一下他将升职的想法，这一猜想的隐含信息就能起到双重信号作用：既表明克里姆林宫可能把权力交给更为可怕的特工，同时也表明事情远没有到可能的最坏情况。 The Emperor’s New Armor 皇帝的新盔甲 So welcome to the theatre of tyranny. A style of governance which actively encourages the appearance of being tougher and nastier than it really is, and at the same time enthusiastically telegraphs that it could be tougher and nastier still. Behind all this posturing, after all, is a regime which can at best be considered a ‘soft’ or maybe ‘parsimonious’ authoritarianism. 所以，欢迎观看暴政大戏。这种统治风格积极鼓励自己表现得比实际上更为强硬、更为卑鄙，同时还狂热地宣扬自己可以再强硬一些、再卑鄙一些。不过，在所有这类装腔作势背后站着的，却是一个最多只能被视作“软”专制或“吝啬”专制的政权。 This is not in any way to whitewash or condone what it does, which ranges from targeted political trials all the way through to condoning a climate in which journalists dissidents and other inconveniences may be harassed, attacked even killed. We need to recognize the very real cases of abuses of individual rights and political repression. 这么说绝非是要洗白或原谅它的所作所为——从打击目标明确的政治审判，到纵容那些骚扰、攻击甚至杀害异议记者和其他刺头的罪行，等一系列行径。我们要意识到，俄罗斯存在着个人权利遭受损害和政治压迫的真实情形。 However, in many ways and compared with many countries (including, arguably, the West’s uncomfortable NATO ally, Turkey), it is much less profligately abusive than it might be. Its strategy is to deter resistance by making it appear futile and dangerous. 不过，从许多方面看，并与许多其他国家（包括可以说是西方在北约内的尴尬盟国土耳其）相比，俄罗斯的残暴并没有到肆无忌惮的地步，而它本有能力做到这一点。它的战略就是要威慑反抗，让反抗看起来危险无比、看起来徒劳无功。 In this respect, there is a striking parallel between the Kremlin’s foreign and domestic policy. Both depend on making Russia appear not only stronger than it is, but more ruthless, unpredictable and downright crazy, so it seems easier to accommodate than challenge it. 就此而言，克里姆林宫的对外与对内政策之间存在一个惊人的相似之处。两者都依赖于一个办法：不仅要把俄罗斯塑造得比实际更为强悍，而且要塑造得更为残暴、更反复无常、更疯狂透顶，从而使得与之通融协调显得比与之对抗挑战要容易。 And it works really well. Until the day that it meets someone more ruthless, unpredictable and crazy (whether Islamic State or Erdogan) or someone happens to wonder just how strong the emperor’s new armor really is. 这个办法效果很不错。除非有一天它撞上了一个更残暴、更无常并且更疯狂的家伙（不管是伊斯兰国还是埃尔多安），或者撞上了一个碰巧想要弄清皇帝的这套新铠甲到底有多牢靠的家伙。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Hive Mind 蜂巢思维 作者：Robin Hanson @ 2015-11-13 译者：Veidt（@Veidt) 校对：龟海海 来源：overcomingbias.com，http://www.overcomingbias.com/2015/11/statestupidity.html Some people like murder mystery novels. I much prefer intellectual mysteries like that in Garett Jones’ new book Hive Mind: How Your Nation’s IQ Matters So Much More Than Your Own: 有些人喜欢看谋杀悬疑小说，而我则更青睐那些智力悬疑类著作，例如Garett Jones的新书《蜂巢思维：为什么你们国家的整体智商水平甚至比你自己的智商还要重要》中所描述的：

Over a decade ago I began my research into how IQ matters for nations. I soon found that the strong link between average IQ and national productivity couldn't be explained with just the conventional finding that IQ predicts higher wages. IQ apparently mattered far more for nations than for individuals. 在十年前我开始研究智商对国家意味着什么。我很快就发现，国民的平均智商与国家生产率之间的强相关性，并不能以高智商预示着高薪资这一传统发现来解释。智商对国家的作用显然比对个人重要得多。 In my early work, I estimated that IQ mattered about six times more for nations than for individuals: your nation’s IQ mattered so much more than your own. That puzzle, that paradox of IQ, is what set me on my intellectual journey. … 在我早期的研究中，我曾经做过一个估测，智商对国家所发挥的作用要比对于个人所发挥的作用高大约6倍，也就是说：你所在国家的平均智商水平比你自己的智商水平要重要的多。这个谜题，或者叫“智商悖论”，让我踏上了这条智力探索的漫漫长路... I’ll lay out five major channels for how IQ can pay off more for nations than for you as an individual: 我将在下面列举五个方面的依据说明智商对国家的影响要远远超出对个人的影响： 1. High-scoring people tend to save more, and some of that savings stays in their home country. More savings mean more machines, more computers, more technology to work with, which helps make everyone in the nation more productive. 1. 高智商的人更会储蓄，而其中的部分储蓄将留在他们的母国。更多储蓄意味着更多的机器，更多电脑，更多可运用的技术，而这些都能帮助生活在这个国家的所有人变得更有效率。 2. High-scoring groups tend to be more cooperative. And cooperation is a key ingredient for building higher-quality governments and more productive businesses. 2. 高智商的群体倾向于更具合作性。而合作则是建设更高质量的政府和更高效企业的一个关键因素。 3. High-scoring groups are more likely to support market-oriented policies, a key to national prosperity. People who do well on standardized tests also tend to be better at remembering information, and informed voters are an important ingredient for good government. 3. 高智商的人群更倾向于支持亲市场政策，这是国家繁荣的关键。那些在标准智商测试中得分更高的人同样也在记忆信息方面拥有优势，而博闻多识的选民是构建良好政府的重要因素。 4. High-scoring groups will tend to be more successful at using highly productive team-based technology. With these “weakest link” technologies, one misstep can destroy the product’s value, so getting high-quality workers together is crucial. Think about computer chips, summer blockbuster films, cooperative mega-mergers. 4. 高智商的人群在使用那些高效的基于团队协作的技术上要做得更好。在这些“最弱一环”【编注：Weakest Link是BBC二台的一档竞赛游戏节目，参赛者需一环扣一环的连续正确解答问题，以最终赢得奖金，每一回合过后，参赛者互相投票选出该回合的“最弱一环”，当选者出局离场。】技术中，任何一步差错都可能会毁掉整个产品的价值，所以让高素质工人进行协作至关重要。想想那些电脑芯片，夏季震撼的电影大片，还有巨型公司的兼并，都是此类协作的产物。 5. The human tendency to conform, at least a little, creates a fifth channel that multiplies the effect of the other four: the imitation channel, the peer effect channel. Even a small tendency to conform, to act just a little bit like those around us, too try to fit in, tends to quietly shape our behavior. If you have cooperative, patient, well-informed neighbors, that probably makes you a bit more cooperative, patient, and well-informed. 5. 人类多少有一点顺从倾向，这创造出了能够放大上述四类作用的第五种效应：那就是模仿效应，或“伙伴效应”。即使是很小一点顺从倾向，也就是行动得更像我们身边的人一些，或者说试图适应身边的人，都很可能在潜移默化中塑造我们的行为。如果你拥有富于合作性，有耐心而且博闻多识的邻居，那么这可能也会让你也变得更有合作性，更耐心，也更博闻多识。 Of course, test scores don’t explain everything about the wealth of nations: I’m only claiming that IQ-type scores explain about half of everything across countries – and much less within a country.

当然，智力测试得分无法解释关于国家富裕程度的一切：我只是说智商类测试得分能够解释国家间大约一半的财富差异——而对一个国家内部的差异，它能解释的部分则要小得多。 The question of why IQ matters more for nations than individuals does indeed seem quite important, and quite puzzling, and Jones is to be praised for his readable and informative book calling it to our attention. And the five explanations Jones offers are indeed, as he claims, channels by which each of us benefits from the IQ of the people around us. 为什么智商对于国家的影响相比对个人的影响要大得多这个问题看来的确很重要，而且也着实是个谜，因此我认为本书作者Jones应该为他这部兼具可读性和信息量并让我们充分意识到这个问题的著作而获得称赞。如他所言，上面所提到的五种解释的确都是我们受益于自己身边人群智商的渠道。 However (you knew that was coming, right?), when we benefit from the IQ of people nearby who are within the scope of shared social institutions, then institution access prices can reflect these benefits. For example, employers can pay more for a smart employee who is not only more productive personally, but also raises the productivity of co-workers. Landlords can offer lower rents to people that other renters want to be near. Stores can offer discounts to customers that other customers like nearby when they are shopping. And clubs can offer discounts to entice memberships from those with which others like to associate. 然而（你知道我会这么说的，对吧？），当我们在共享社会机构的范围内从身边人群的智商中受益时，这些机构的准入价格便可体现这种益处的大小。例如，雇主可以为一名不仅自己生产率高，而且还能提升同事生产率的雇员发放更多的工资。土地主可以向其他租户都愿意靠近的那家租户收取更低的地租。商店可以向那些在购物时有很多人愿意接近的顾客提供折扣价格。而俱乐部也可以通过向那些其他人都愿意结交的人提供折扣来吸引他们成为自己的会员。 So simple economic theory leads us to expect that the benefits that smart people give to others nearby, within these shared priced-entry institutions, will be reflected in their incomes. 因此简单的经济理论便可让我们得出这样的预期，那些聪明人通过共享一个有偿准入的机构而带给身边人的好处，将最终反映在他们的收入上。 Specifically, people can plausibly pay more to live, club, shop, and work near and influenced by others who are more patient, cooperative, informed, and reliable. So these local benefits of smart associates do not plausibly explain the difference between how individual and national IQ correlate with income. 具体地说，人们完全可以花更多钱以换取生活在这些更有耐心，更富合作性，更博闻多识，也更可靠的人身边，在其附近购物，参与社团活动，并受其影响完全。所以这些聪明的被结交者们为身边人带来的局部收益，并不能合理地解释个人智商与收入的相关性为何不同于与国家平均智商与收入之间的相关性。【编注：意思是，假如高智商个体能够以本节所述方式将其带给身边人的利益（一种正外部性）内化为私人收入，这一相关性差别就不会存在。】 To explain this key difference (a factor of six!) we need big market or government failures. These could result if: 想要解释这一关键差异（第六个因素！），我们需要看看大市场或者政府的失败。下面几个原因可能导致这样的结果：

• Small social institutions such as firms, clubs, malls, and rental housing suffer some severe and as yet unidentified market failures which prevent them from favoring the smart.
• 诸如企业，俱乐部，超市和房屋租赁这类小型社会机构，可能会经历一些严重而又找不到原因的市场失灵，这阻止了它们对于聪明人的偏好。
• Benefits from the smart span such long social distances that they are not encompassed by shared social institutions with low enough transaction costs to allow deals to favor the smart. Maybe, for example, large metropolitan areas just can’t make effective deals on policies to favor attracting the smart, and pushing away the stupid.
• 聪明人所带来的好处，所发挥作用的社会跨度太大，以至于它们无法以足够低的交易成本被囊括进一个共同的社会机构中，从而让该机构能够做出偏爱聪明人的安排。举例来说，也许大都市地区的确无法就吸引聪明人并赶走蠢人的政策达成有效的安排。
• Governments with structures that fail to prevent the stupid and impatient from greatly influencing government policy. Such prevention might happen via restricting the franchise in democracies, by auctioning governance to a highest bidder, or via institutions like futarchy tied to long-term outcomes.

有组织构架的政府，可能也无法阻止那些愚蠢而缺乏耐心的人对其政策施加巨大影响【编注：此句原文语法不完整，姑作此解】。此类预防性措施的可能实现途径是，通过将治理权拍卖给出价最高者，来限制民主机制中的选举投票权，或者通过类似futarchy的制度【译注：futarchy是由经济学家Robin Hanson设想的一种制度，在其中，候选人只提出价值主张供选民选择，而采用何种政策来追求这些价值的问题，则交给一个预测市场（比如赌博市场或其他金融衍生品市场）来回答。】而将政策与长期后果捆绑在一起。 This third explanation seems by far the most plausible to me, especially via the government impatience channel. After all, while the stupid might be persuaded to see a benefit in adopting government institutions that give more influence to the smart, the impatient may just not see much benefit from their point of view in having a more patient government. 第三种解释在我看来是最合理的（且远比其他解释高明），特别是在政府治理缺乏耐心这方面。毕竟，即使那些愚蠢的人能被说服，看到让聪明人在政府机构中发挥更大影响力的好处，那些目光短浅的人却很可能无法看到拥有一个更加富有耐心的政府能为他们带来多少好处。 Adopting this as my tentative explanation, I must admit to now being more nervous about allowing more impatient and stupid immigrants, though as Bryan Caplan points out, that still allows for taking on billions of smart immigrants. 我必须承认，在把这作为我的一种尝试性解释的同时，我对于这个国家接纳更多没耐心且愚蠢的移民这一政策感到担忧，虽然如Bryan Caplan所指出，该政策让我们拥有了接纳数十亿聪明移民的机会。 But even if I’m now mildly more reluctant to take on certain kinds of immigrants, I’ll blame that mainly on our poor governance institutions, which give too much weight to the stupid and the impatient. 不过，尽管现在我对接纳某些特定类型的移民变得更不情愿了，我还是会将这主要归咎于我们糟糕的治理机构，是它们把过大的权重放给了那些愚蠢而不耐心的移民。 P.S. I’m aware that Jones has a formal model wherein a certain kind of nation-IQ correlation is larger than a certain kind of individual-IQ correlation. 补充：我知道Jones有一个正规模型，在这个模型中，某种特定的国家财富与智商之间的相关性要大于个人财富与智商之间的相关性。 The model has two industries, one where reliability matters greatly, and one where it matters much less, and two kinds of workers, a set of identical and very reliable workers and another set of less reliable workers who vary in their reliability. 该模型假设有两种产业，可靠性在其中的一种产业中非常重要，而在另一种产业中则不那么重要，同时还假设有两类工人，其中一类工人有着相同水平的高可靠性，而另一类工人的可靠性水平较低且参差不齐。 Only the identical very reliable workers work in the industry where reliability matters a lot, but some of these workers also work in the industry where reliability matters less, and within that second industry, there is only a weak correlation between reliability and wages. But if we compare nations that differ in the value of the high identical reliability among the workers in the industry where reliability matters, we’ll see that national income varies greatly with this reliability parameter. 在可靠性很重要的产业中工作的，都是那些拥有同等高度可靠的工人，而同样也有一些拥有相同水平的高可靠性工人在另一个对可靠性要求不那么高的产业里工作，在这第二个产业中，工人的可靠性和工资水平之间仅仅有很弱的相关性。但如果我们在国与国之间比较那些在对可靠性要求较高的产业中工作的拥有同等高可靠性工人的价值，那么可靠性这个参数会导致的差异就大得多了。 Yes this is a valid formal model, but it seems fragile and I doubt it robustly generalizes well to more complex situations; I just don’t think it works as a robust account of why national IQ matters more than individual IQ for wages. 的确，这是一个有效的正规模型，但它看起来很脆弱，而且我对该模型能否被稳健地推广到一些更加复杂的情境中去也表示怀疑；原因是我不认为它能够作为一个稳健的解释来说明为什么国家的智商水平对工资的影响要大于个人的智商水平。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Tom Holland: We must not deny the religious roots of Islamic State Tom Holland: 我们不能否认伊斯兰国的宗教根基 作者：Tom Holland @ 2015-3-17 译者：Horace Rae 校对：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 来源：News Statesman，http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/tom-holland-we-must-not-deny-relgious-roots-islamic-state Its jihadis call for a global caliphate. So why deny religion drives Isis? 伊斯兰圣战者呼吁建立一个全球哈里发帝国。所以，我们何以否认伊斯兰国乃由宗教所驱动？ in 1545, a general council of the Western Church was convened by Pope Paul III in the Tyrolean city of Trent. The ambition of the various bishops and theologians in attendance was to affirm Catholic doctrine in the face of the Protestant Reformation. Accordingly, when the council issued its first significant decree on 8 April 1546, it was targeted very precisely at what the delegates saw as most noxious about Luther and his followers. 1545年，教皇保禄三世主持的天主教会大公会议在提洛尔地区的塔兰托召开。与会的主教和神学家们想要在新教改革如火如荼之际巩固天主教信条的地位。于是，1546年4月8日，当会议发布第一条重要教令时，其对象很明确，就是被代表们视为罪大恶极的路德及其追随者。 Whereas Protestants, following Luther’s lead, aspired to strip away the cladding of tradition and learn the will of God from scripture alone, the Council of Trent condemned this ambition as a pernicious heresy. Divine revelation, it declared firmly, was not confined to the Bible. Tradition, too, “preserved in the Catholic Church by a continuous succession”, expressed the essence of Christ’s teachings. To doubt this was no longer to rank as Christian. 跟随路德指引的新教徒们决意打破传统，只从经文中领悟上帝的意志。塔兰托大公会议谴责这种想法，称其为罪大恶极的异端邪说。会议坚持，神圣启示并非只存在于《圣经》之中。传统——“经由连续传承而被保存在天主教会中”——也同样能传达上帝教导的实质。质疑这一说法的人将被剥夺基督徒身份。 It is in a kindred spirit that Mehdi Hasan, in his article in last week’s issue of the New Statesman, would deny the title of Islamic to Islamic State, also known as Isis. That Isis militants, in justifying their actions, can quote the Quran, or the example or sayings of the Prophet Muhammad, does not necessarily make them orthodox Muslims. 在上周New Statesman 杂志刊登的一篇文章中，Mehdi Hasan也表达了类似的想法：否认伊斯兰国的“伊斯兰”特性。尽管伊斯兰国的战士们在为其行为辩解时大可引用《古兰经》或先知穆罕默德的行迹或言论，但这并不能令他们成为正统的穆斯林。 Islam, like Christianity, is more than the sum of its scriptures. Over the course of its near 1,500 years of existence, an immense corpus of commentary and interpretation has accrued. “. . . the religion’s teachings in every age are determined by scholarly consensus on the meaning of the complex scriptural texts.” So declares Timothy Winter, the director of the Cambridge Muslim College, as quoted by Hasan. It is an assertion that would not have looked out of place in the decrees of the Council of Trent. 就像基督教一样，伊斯兰教的内涵远比经文总和丰富得多。在它1500余年历史中，无数人对它做过解释和评论，“……在每个时代，教义都是由关于复杂经文之内涵的学术共识决定的。” Hasan 引用剑桥穆斯林学院院长Timothy Winter如此说到。这种主张如果插到塔兰托会议的纲领中去，也不会令人觉得格格不入。 The problem faced by the orthodox religious authorities in the Muslim world, however, is very similar to that which confronted the Catholic Church in the 16th century: escaped genies are tricky things to get back into bottles. The same impulse that prompted Luther to affirm the primacy of scripture over Catholic doctrine has also long been at work in Islam. 然而，正统穆斯林权威现在面对的问题与16世纪困扰天主教会的问题很相似：逃脱的精灵很难回到瓶子里。促使路德把经文置于天主教信条之上的念头在伊斯兰教中也是由来已久。 As far back as the 13th century, a scholar based in Damascus by the name of Ibn Taymiyya proposed that the surest way to know God’s purpose was to study the practices of the first three generations of Muslims: the “forebears”, or “Salafs”. Reports of what Muhammad and his earliest followers had done, so he argued, should always trump subsequent tradition. Like Luther, Ibn Taymiyya was condemned as a heretic; but he also, again like Luther, blazed a momentous trail. 早在13世纪，大马士革一位名叫Ibn Taymiyya的学者就认为，领悟真主意图最稳妥的方法就是研习最早三代穆斯林（“先贤”，或称“萨拉菲”）的事迹。他宣称，关于穆罕默德及其最早期追随者所作所为的记载，永远比后来形成的传统更为权威。正如路德一样，Ibn Taymiyya也曾被斥为异端；但是，还是跟路德一样，他同样开辟了一条重要道路。 Salafism today is probably the fastest-growing Islamic movement in the world. The interpretation that Isis applies to Muslim scripture may be exceptional for its savagery – but not for its literalism. Islamic State, in its conceit that it has trampled down the weeds and briars of tradition and penetrated to the truth of God’s dictates, is recognisably Salafist. 萨拉菲主义可能是当今世界扩散最迅速的伊斯兰教运动。伊斯兰国对伊斯兰经文的解释，在其野蛮性上或许颇为罕见，但是在字面主义上却绝对正宗。伊斯兰国幻想自己消灭了宗教传统中的毒草，洞悉上帝的旨意，这很明显是萨拉菲主义的特质。 When Islamic State fighters smash the statues of pagan gods, they are following the example of the Prophet; when they proclaim themselves the shock troops of a would-be global empire, they are following the example of the warriors of the original caliphate; when they execute enemy combatants, and impose discriminatory taxes on Christians, and take the women of defeated opponents as slaves, they are doing nothing that the first Muslims did not glory in. 当伊斯兰国战士毁坏异教神祗的雕像时，他们效仿的是先知的先例；当他们宣称自己是未来统治世界的帝国的骁勇之师时，他们效仿的是最早的哈里发国的军队。当他们处决敌军战士，对基督徒征收歧视性的税目，以及把被打败对手的女人当作奴隶时，没有一件不是初代穆斯林引以为豪的。 Such behaviour is certainly not synonymous with Islam; but if not Islamic, then it is hard to know what else it is. 这种行为与伊斯兰教肯定不是百分之百相符的；但要是说这种行为不是伊斯兰的，那就很难说它到底是什么了。 Admittedly the actions of those signed up to Islamic State are unlikely to have been inspired exclusively by religious teachings. Many of those fighting for Isis may indeed, as Hasan points out, be varnishing their taste for violence or power with a sheen of piety. But the same was true of those inspired by Luther’s teachings – not to mention the early Muslims themselves. 诚然，伊斯兰国的这些行为不可能仅仅由宗教教义驱动。Hasan指出，isis的许多斗士，可能仅仅是将他们对权力和暴力的欲望粉饰为了对神的虔诚。但是，被路德的教导所鼓舞的人也是如此呀——更不要提那些早期的穆斯林们了。 Back in the time of the Salafs, avarice and religiosity frequently coincided. When a slave revolt erupted in Syria and Iraq less than 50 years after the death of Muhammad, the Arab conquerors were outraged. “These slaves are our booty,” one of them exclaimed. “They were granted us by God!” 在萨拉菲们的时代，虔诚与贪婪往往同时发生。穆罕默德去世不到50年，叙利亚和伊拉克爆发了奴隶起义，阿拉伯征服者们大发雷霆，其中一人宣称“这些奴隶是我们的战利品，他们是真主赐予我们的！” Jihadis in Raqqa have tweeted in similar tones about uppity Yazidi slaves. To imagine that religious motivation can somehow be isolated from the complex swirl of ambitions, fears and desires that constitute human nature is to fall for an illusion: that religions, contingent as they are, and as subject to evolution as any other manifestation of culture, exist as abstract ideals. 在推特上，拉卡的圣战者对不易控制的雅兹迪奴隶也有相同的论调。如果我们假想宗教驱动力可以从构成人类本性的野心、恐惧、欲望所组成的复杂漩涡中独立出来，我们就会陷入一种幻觉：宗教飘忽不定，并且如同其他文化表现形式一样总在持续演变，只是作为抽象理念而存在。 The truth is that in Islam today, as in Christianity during the Reformation, the spectrum of those who practise the faith is widening to convulsive effect. Hasan’s dismissal of two Isis recruits from Birmingham as “religious novices” echoes the horror of Catholic scholars such as Thomas More at the pretensions of Protestant tailors and tinkers. 真相是，今日的伊斯兰教就如同宗教改革期间的基督教一样，信徒们的思想差异极大，造成了令人震惊的后果。Hasan对Isis从伯明翰招募的两名成员不屑一顾，称之为“宗教菜鸟”，这种反感与Thomas More等天主教学者面对新教裁缝和修补匠的主张时的感觉一样。 Just as in the early 16th century the printing press and the efforts of translators such as Luther and Tyndale served to democratise knowledge of the Bible, so in the 21st century has the ready availability on the internet of the Quran and the hadiths in the vernacular enabled rappers, security guards and schoolgirls all to bandy scripture. 正如16世纪时出版印刷业以及路德和廷代尔等翻译者曾对《圣经》知识平民化作出过贡献一样，在21世纪，网络上译成本地语言的《古兰经》及《穆罕默德言行录》唾手可得，这也使得说唱艺人、保安和女学生们都能把经文挂在嘴边。 To complain that quranic verses which mandate crucifixion or beheading are being cited without reference to the traditions of Islamic jurisprudence is to miss the point. It is precisely because Isis militants imagine themselves the equivalent of Muhammad’s companions, blessed with an unadorned understanding of God’s commands, that they feel qualified to establish a caliphate. 指责他们不参考伊斯兰教法传统就直接引用那些鼓励刑罚和砍头的《古兰经》经文，这种批评没有抓住要点。正是因为Isis战士认为他们自己等同于穆罕默德的同伴，被赐予了对真主旨意的准确理解，他们才认为自己有资格建立哈里发国。 “My people,” so Muhammad is once said to have warned, “are destined to split into 73 factions – all of which, except one, will end up in hell.” Who, then, Muslims have often wondered, will gain paradise? Isis, like so many of the various other sects that have emerged in the course of Islamic history, appears confident of the answer. 据说穆罕默德曾经警告过：“我的人民注定要分裂成73个派别，除了一个，其他的都要下地狱。”穆斯林们一直在疑惑：究竟是谁会上天堂？正如历史上涌现出的其他伊斯兰教派别一样，Isis对这个问题的答案似乎很自信。 It is not merely coincidence that IS currently boasts a caliph, imposes quranically mandated taxes, topples idols, chops the hands off thieves, stones adulterers, executes homosexuals and carries a flag that bears the Muslim declaration of faith. If Islamic State is indeed to be categorised as a phenomenon distinct from Islam, it urgently needs a manifest and impermeable firewall raised between them. At the moment, though, I fail to see it. 现在，IS夸口自居为哈里发，征收《古兰经》要求的税目、推倒偶像、砍掉盗贼的手、把通奸者石刑处死、处死同性恋者，并且采用穆斯林的见证言作为旗帜，所有这些都并非巧合。如果伊斯兰国一定要被定义成与伊斯兰教毫无关系的现象，那么两者之间就需要树立一堵明白无误、密不透风的防火墙。现在，我还没有看到这堵墙。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Republicans prefer politicians with deep voices 共和党选民更青睐声音低沉的政治家 作者：Aarhus University @ 2015-11-24 译者：Luis Rightcon(@Rightcon) 校对：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 来源：EurekAlert，http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-11/au-rpp112415.php A deep voice and a square jaw are important assets for conservative politicians. For politicians on the liberal side, it's more important to have gentle features. That's the conclusion of two recent scientific articles from Aarhus University. The implication is not only that physical features have a larger impact on voter preferences than previously thought but also that different physical features appeal to different voter segments. 拥有低沉嗓音和方形下巴对于保守派政客而言是非常重要的资产。而对于自由派政客，拥有相对柔和的特性则更为重要。这是最近两篇出自奥尔胡斯大学的科学论文所得出的结论，这两篇文章不仅表明身体特征对选民倾向的影响比以前所认为的要更大，而且指出不同的身体特征会吸引不同的选民群体。 The results run counter to the ideal that voters in democratic societies make their decisions after carefully weighing the pros and cons of the political programs put forward by the various parties, according to Lasse Laustsen and Michael Bang Petersen from the university's Department of Political Science, who carried out the research. 这项研究是由奥尔胡斯大学政治科学系的Lasse Laustsen和Michael Bang Petersen做的，研究所得出的结果与那种认为民主社会选民会在仔细权衡各政党所推行的政治纲领的利弊之后再做出选择的设想恰好背道而驰。 "A deep tone of voice appeals to conservative voters. More generally, conservative voters seem to have a preference for politicians who look physically strong and masculine, while liberal voters prefer those who have less dominant features and seem more accommodating, perhaps even slightly feminine," said Laustsen. Laustsen指出：“低沉的嗓音会吸引保守派选民。更一般的来说，保守派选民似乎倾向于外表看上去更强壮，更阳刚的政客，而自由派选民则更喜欢不那么强势而且更随和，甚至可能有点轻微女性化的政客。” The new studies form an example of how political scientists can achieve a deeper understanding of political behavior by using a broader variety of research tools. The approach is increasingly adopted by political scientists all over the world, including John Hibbing, a professor of political science at University of Nebraska-Lincoln. 这一使用多种研究工具的新研究为政治学家树立了深入理解政治行为的典范。全世界的政治学家正在逐步采用这种研究方式，内布拉斯加－林肯大学政治学教授John Hibbing就是其中之一。 "It's a fairly limited niche, but it's growing. What Laustsen and Petersen do is both exciting and important. Some people may be uncomfortable knowing that our preferences are determined by forces that we don't entirely understand. But of course, as scientists we still have to deal with it," said Hibbing, who didn't take part in the Laustsen and Petersen's research. “这是个相当有限的细分领域，但是在不断发展壮大。Laustsen和Petersen的工作既令人兴奋又非常重要。我们的（政治）倾向被我们没有完全理解的力量所决定，这一点会令许多人感到不舒服。但是我们作为科学家当然还是要应对它。”Hibbing说。Hibbing本人没有参与Laustsen和Petersen的研究。 One of the articles is based on data from US politics and demonstrates that Republican voters are more likely than voters from the Democratic camp to vote for politicians with deep voices. To understand why this is, you have to dig a little deeper, according to Laustsen. Republican voters prefer strong politicians - or politicians whose deep voices make them sound like they are strong - because they believe the world is a more dangerous and menacing place than Democratic voters, he said. 其中一篇论文基于美国政治的数据，证明了共和党选民较之民主党阵营选民更倾向于选择嗓音低沉的政客。在Laustsen看来，要理解其中原因，需要进一步挖掘这项事实。他认为共和党选民倾向于身体强壮的政客，或者嗓音低沉的政客——嗓音低沉使得他们听起来比较强壮——是因为共和党选民相信真实世界要比民主党选民所认为的更加险恶。 "If you hold up images of objects that people consider dangerous or unpleasant, for example of large spiders, and then measure the production of sweat from people's fingertips (skin conductance response), you get an indication of spontaneous physical reaction. In these cases, conservative voters react more strongly than liberal ones. This could indicate a large visceral difference in the way these voter groups perceive the world," Laustsen said. Laustsen说：“如果你举起人们觉得危险或者令人不适的物体图片，比如说巨型蜘蛛，然后测试观察者指尖的出汗量（皮电反应），你会看到身体自发的应激反应。在这类试验中，保守派选民比自由派选民的反应更为激烈。这可能表明这些选民群体在认知世界的层面上有着很大的本能上的差别。” Laustsen and Petersen's research proceeds from the observations that in order to understand the behavior of modern humans, you need to look into the evolutionary history that has shaped the psychology producing this behavior. 为了理解现代人类的行为，必须从产生行为的心理着手，而人类的进化史塑造了自身的心理。基于这样的看法，Laustsen和Petersen的研究就由此入手。 In prehistoric times when the ancestors of modern humans were roaming the East-African savannah in small groups, it made sense to support the strongest members of the tribe when confronted with danger. Psychological mechanisms which 30,000 years ago saved our ancestors from being devoured by saber-toothed tigers and other fierce animals continue to be at work today, explaining, among other things, why people vote as they do along the left-right continuum. 史前时代，现代人类的祖先组成许多小群体漫游在东非稀树大草原上。这样，在遇上危险时支持群体里的最强壮者就显得尤为重要。三万年前的心理机制保护了我们的祖先不被剑齿虎和许多其他猛兽吞噬殆尽，而同样的心理机制至今仍在发挥作用。这就能解释许多事情，包括为什么人类在投票时（所表现出的政治倾向）会沿从左到右的光谱排列。 "There are evolutionarily important reasons for the structure of our psychology. Our ancestors had to make a decision about which leader to follow, and it was crucial for their survival and reproduction that they picked the right one. As a species we are pre-programmed to think in a certain way about who we would like to be in charge. This affects choices that we make even today," said Petersen. “我们的心理结构是具有进化意义上的重大缘由的。我们祖先必须就领袖人选作出抉择，选择正确的人选对于他们的生存和繁衍极其重要。作为一个物种，我们被预先设定好以某种特定方式来考虑谁才是我们中意的领导者。这甚至一直在影响今天我们所作出的决定。”Petersen说。 Is this knowledge useful for the politicians? For example, would it be helpful for conservative politicians to tone down their dominant, masculine personality traits in hopes of snatching voters further to the left who tend to find less dominant features more attractive? 这项知识对政客有用吗？举例来说，保守派政客是否可以通过软化他们的强势个性特征来吸引更加左翼、更加青睐没有太多强势特征的人选的选民？ "Democrats are often seen as empathic, compassionate types. Republicans, by contrast, are often considered as strong leaders with a moral compass. This kind of subjective views may have real importance in cases where a Republican candidate is seen as more empathic than his Democratic opponent and trespasses into his territory. Perhaps he can gain some votes there," he said. Petersen指出：“民主党人往往被视为富于同情怜悯的类型。与之相对，共和党人往往被认为是具有道德模范特性的强大领袖。这样的主观印象也许会在某些场合发挥重大作用，比如在一个共和党候选人比他的民主党对手显得更具有同情心，侵入了后者的基本盘的情况下，这位共和党候选人将会挣来一些（偏左翼的）选票。” Can the voters use these new insights for anything? It's always better to be aware of what causes you to have the preferences you have. But the roots of our likes and dislikes are buried so deep in the subconscious that the two authors doubt there is very much to do about them. 选民们能通过这些新洞见干些什么呢？了解到你的倾向由何而来当然是很不错的。但是我们喜恶的根源是如此深埋在潜意识中，以至于两位作者不觉得我们能在此有什么作为。 "We can't necessarily do very much to control this. Some American research indicates that participants in lab tests are able to determine which of two unknown candidates they like more after having been exposed to images of them for less than 0.1 second. This suggests that these processes are really fast and subconscious. So I think it's hard to rein in," Laustsen said. Laustsen说“我们不一定能够控制这个。一些来自美国的研究指出，实验室测试的参与者们会在看到两位陌生候选人图片的0.1秒之内决定出他们的偏好。这显示了做出选择的过程非常快速，且深深扎根于潜意识中。所以我认为很难去驾驭这一过程。” （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Why Mali was attacked 马里缘何被袭击 作者：Ian Birrell @ 2015-11-20 译者：黑色枪骑兵（@忠勇仁义诚实可靠小郎君） 校对：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 来源：Capx，http://www.capx.co/166181-2/ So here we go again. First the tragic slaughter of innocents in Paris, followed by that tense, bloodstained hunt for the murderers. Now 170 largely-foreign hostages have been seized by gunmen in an upmarket hotel in the Malian capital of Bamako. 一而再、再而三。首先是无辜巴黎人民遭受悲惨屠杀，然后是紧张而又血腥的追凶。现在，170名主要为外国人的人质，又被武装分子扣押在马里首都巴马科的一所高档酒店里。 The 140 guests being held reportedly include people from France, China and Turkey, along with 30 hotel staff; at least we can give thanks that members of Western air crews along with many others escaped amid the chaos of the assault. There are reports of deaths, while special forces are moving in. 据报道，与30名酒店工作人员一同被扣押的140名房客来自法国、中国和土耳其。值得庆幸的是，“西部航空”的职员以及其他一些人借着袭击时的混乱而得以逃脱。报道称，特种部队进入时，有死亡消息传出。 There are strong chances, sadly, that this is instant blowback from the shocking events in France. The rather soulless Radisson Blu hotel is a well-known landmark in the dusty Malian capital; a British journalist who interviewed one of the country’s famous musical bands told me he stayed there just weeks ago. The capital felt secure when I was last there a couple of years ago, yet sadly it is no surprise to see that the jihadists have struck back in this beautiful yet battered nation. 令人沮丧的是，这次事件很可能是之前震惊世人的巴黎事件的即时反弹。那座没有灵魂的丽笙酒店是灰蒙蒙的马里首都的知名地标建筑，一个曾经采访过该国最著名乐队的英国记者告诉我，仅在两周前他还住在那里。几年前我在那里时，这座都城还能让人感到安全，但是令人伤感的是，伊斯兰圣战者杀回这个美丽而又饱受折磨的国度并不让人感到意外。 For two decades Mali was seen as a model democracy, with many analysts ignoring its corrosion through corruption and drug trafficking across the desert. Then it collapsed three years ago following an almost-accidental coup led by a disgruntled army captain, which was seized immediately by Toureg rebels seeking independence in the north. 二十年来，许多分析人士忽略腐败和穿越沙漠的贩毒活动对马里的侵蚀，一直视其为民主政治的模范。三年前，在一场由一位心怀不满的陆军上尉发动的近乎偶然的政变中，这个国家倒下了，之后她迅速被一直寻求北部独立的图阿雷格反抗军掌握。 They were well-armed after returning from fighting for their long-term supporter Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, and one key figure had fallen under the spell of Islamic radicals; soon, moderates were forced aside and the huge desert areas fell under the control of fundamentalists. 他们曾为其长期支持者——利比亚的穆哈迈尔·卡扎菲——作战，归来之后就变得武装精良。而且他们的一位核心人物已经中了伊斯兰激进分子的魔咒。很快，温和派被迫让位，这片广阔的沙漠地区落入原教旨主义者之手。 Islamist groups allied to al Qa’ida had grown rich exploiting traditional Saharan smuggling routes as cocaine began to carve its way through west Africa en route to Europe, then boosted their income by kidnapping tourists visiting cities such as the wondrous Timbuktu. Having captured the region, foreign fighters poured in to create a caliphate in the desert. 与基地组织关系密切的各种伊斯兰组织，先是抓住可卡因开始经西非由空运输往欧洲的机会，利用传统的撒哈拉走私线路大发横财，之后又通过绑架古城（例如神奇的廷巴克图城）的游客来增收。在控制这个地区之后，来自其他国家的伊斯兰武装分子涌入当地，在沙漠中建立了一个哈里发国。 Yet it is important to note their imposition of hardline sharia law – with women forced to cover up, tombs destroyed, adulterers stoned and thieves having hands cut off – was alien to both Tuareg tradition and the sufistic Islam of the south. The banning of music in a nation famous worldwide for so many of its astonishing artists was especially shocking. 值得注意的是，他们强制推行的强硬伊斯兰教法——强迫妇女裹紧全身，毁坏墓穴，对通奸者施以石刑，砍掉偷窃者的手——既非图阿雷格传统，也和南部苏菲派伊斯兰格格不入。在一个因杰出艺术家层出不穷而蜚声国际的民族中禁止音乐，这种做法尤为令人震惊。 So there was immense popular support when a 4,000-strong French force invaded in support of the inept and poorly-equipped Malian army two years ago. They took rapid action when it looked like the bustling trading port of Mopti with its population of 120,000 people was about to fall to the militants. 因此，两年前一支4000人的法国部队进入马里，支援作战力弱、装备差的马里部队时，受到了热烈的欢迎和支持。当莫普提这一繁华的贸易港口和当地12万人口即将落入武装分子之手时，他们采取了快速行动。 Yet while they drove away Islamist militias and re-imposed a veneer of democracy, the fissures in this alluring country remained close to the surface. The new president has done little to restore faith in politics, while tensions remain between Tuaregs and southerners. 然而，尽管他们把伊斯兰武装分子驱逐了出去，并再次扶持建立起名义上的民主，但这个美丽国度的裂痕依旧呼之欲出。新总统没能重建民众对政治的信任，图阿雷格人和南部人民之间的紧张关系依旧持续。 In Mali, as elsewhere in parts of Africa, Muslim fanatics tapped into faultlines created through corruption, discrimination and poverty. And as we see again today, the jihadists may have been defeated but never disappeared. It was easy for them to melt back into the desert, surfacing again and again to strike back at their enemies. 就像非洲的其他地方一样，马里的穆斯林狂热分子利用了腐败、歧视和贫穷所造成的社会裂痕。正如我们今天再次看到的一样，圣战分子可以被打败，但是绝不会消失。对于他们来说，藏身沙漠，然后再次出来回击他们的敌人相当轻松。 United Nations blue helmets have been attacked so often it was seen as the most dangerous of their missions around the world, with 53 peacekeepers killed. There have also been deadly attacks on hotels and restaurants popular with foreigners, even in Bamako. 联合国维和部队多次被袭，53名维和人员丧生，使得驻防此地被看作全世界最危险的。即使在巴马科，针对外国人经常光顾的酒店和餐馆的致命袭击也时有发生。 These depressing events in Bamako prove two things. First, there are huge hurdles ahead in the fight to restore stability in the Sahel, many of which policymakers blinkered by the past have barely begun to understand. And second, that the worldwide war with Islamic militants has few boundaries. This is perhaps the most terrifying aspect of the latest attack. 在巴马科发的这些令人沮丧的事件证明了两件事：第一，想要重建萨赫勒地区的稳定局势的话，还有很多巨大的障碍亟待破除，然而许多眼光局限于过去的决策者尚未意识到这个问题；第二，伊斯兰激进分子在世界范围内发起的战争没有边界。这可能是最近这次袭击最令人恐惧的地方。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

The benefits of carbon dioxide 二氧化碳的益处 作者：Matt Ridley @ 2015-10-20 译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 校对：淡蓝 来源：作者个人博客，http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-benefits-of-carbon-dioxide/ Global greening may save more lives and forests than warming costs 比起变暖之害，全球绿化有可能拯救更多生命和森林。 My Times Column on the surprisingly large benefits of carbon dioxide emissions: 我在的《泰晤士报》上的专栏分析了二氧化碳排放所带来的令人震惊的巨大好处： France’s leading television weather forecaster, Philippe Verdier, was taken off air last week for writing that there are “positive consequences” of climate change. Freeman Dyson, professor emeritus of mathematical physics and astrophysics at the Institute of Advanced Study in Princeton, declared last week that the non-climatic effects of carbon dioxide are “enormously beneficial”. Patrick Moore, a founder of Greenpeace, said in a lecture last week that we should “celebrate carbon dioxide”. Philippe Verdier，法国电视天气预报员中的佼佼者，因写到气候变化具有“积极效应”而于上周被调离播报岗位。Freeman Dyson，普林斯顿大学高等研究院数学物理学和天体物理学荣休教授，上周称，二氧化碳的非气候影响“极为有益”。Patrick Moore，绿色和平组织创始人之一，在上周的一次讲座中说，我们应该“为二氧化碳而欢庆”。 Are these three prominent but very different people right? Should we at least consider seriously, before we go into a massive international negotiation based on the assumption that carbon dioxide is bad, whether we might be mistaken? Most politicians today consider such a view to be so beyond the pale as to be mad or possibly criminal. 这三位杰出而各不相同的人物说的对吗？基于二氧化碳有害的假设而展开大规模国际谈判之前，我们至少应该严肃地思考一下，有没有可能我们是错的？今天，大多数政客都将这视作无比出格、近乎疯狂，甚或是有罪的观点。 Yet the benefits of carbon dioxide emissions are not even controversial in scientific circles. As Richard Betts of the Met Office tweeted last week, the “CO2 fertilisation effect” — the fact that rising emissions are making plants grow better — is not news and is discussed in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 然而，在科学圈里，二氧化碳排放的好处连“颇可争议”都谈不上。正如英国气象局的Richard Betts上周的一条推文所说的那样，“CO2的施肥效应”——即逐渐增加的排放量使得植物生长得更好——并不是新闻，而且曾在政府间气候变化专门委员会的报告中得到讨论。 The satellite data show that there has been roughly a 14 per cent increase in the amount of green vegetation on the planet since 1982, that this has happened in all ecosystems, but especially in arid tropical areas, and that it is in large part due to man-made carbon dioxide emissions. 卫星数据显示，自1982年以来，地球上的绿色植被总量大约增长了14%。这种增长出现于所有生态系统中，但在干旱的热带地区最明显。并且，大部分增长主要源于人为的二氧化碳排放。 Last week also saw the publication of a comprehensive report on “Carbon Dioxide — the Good News” for the Global Warming Policy Foundation by the independent American scientist Indur Goklany, to which Freeman Dyson wrote the foreword. The report was thoroughly peer-reviewed, as was almost all of the voluminous literature it cited. (Full disclosure: I helped edit the report.) 上周，更有一份关于“二氧化碳——大好消息”的很全面的报告出炉，这是由美国独立科学家Indur Goklany向全球变暖政策基金会（GWPF）提供的，并由Freeman Dyson作序。该报告经过了充分的同行评议，报告所引用的巨量文献也几乎全都如此。（大曝光：我参与编辑了该报告。） 11 Goklany points out that whereas the benefits of carbon dioxide are huge and here now, the harms are still speculative and almost all in the distant future. There has so far been — as the IPCC confirms — no measurable increase in droughts, floods or storms worldwide, no reversal in the continuing rapid decline in deaths due to insect-borne diseases, and no measurable impacts of the continuing very slow rise in global sea levels. Goklany指出，二氧化碳的好处不但巨大，而且就在眼前，其害处则仍是推测性的，且几乎全部都只会出现于遥远的未来。迄今为止——如政府间气候变化专门委员所确认的——世界范围内的干旱、洪涝或暴雨并未出现可衡量的增加，虫媒传染病致死病例持续快速减少的现象并未逆转，全球海平面极为缓慢的持续上升也并没有产生可衡量的影响。 In stark terms, Bangladesh is still gaining land from sedimentation in its rivers’ deltas, has suffered no increase in cyclones, but has benefited from reduced malnourishment to the tune of billions of dollars from higher crop yields as a result of carbon dioxide emissions. 粗暴点说，孟加拉国现在仍然不断从其河流三角洲的沉积中获得土地，并未因大气气旋增加而备受折磨，却得益于因价值数十亿美元的粮食增收所带来的营养不良减少，而这正是二氧化碳排放的结果。

[This is the summary from Goklany's report: [以下为Goklany报告的总结： 1. This paper addresses the question of whether, and how much, increased carbon dioxide concentrations have benefited the biosphere and humanity by stimulating plant growth, warming the planet and increasing rainfall. 1. 本论文讨论了升高的二氧化碳浓度 是否以及多大程度上，以刺激植物生长、暖化地球、增加雨量的方式，使生物圈和人类受益。 2. Empirical data confirms that the biosphere’s productivity has increased by about 14% since 1982, in large part as a result of rising carbon dioxide levels. 2. 经验数据确认，生物圈的生产率自1982年以来已增加了大约14%，大部分是二氧化碳水平持续上升的结果。 3. Thousands of scientific experiments indicate that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations in the air have contributed to increases in crop yields. 3. 数千项科学实验表明，提升大气中二氧化碳浓度，促进了农作物收成增加。 4. These increases in yield are very likely to have reduced the appropriation of land for farming by 11–17% compared with what it would otherwise be, resulting in more land being left wild. 4. 上述收成的增加非常有可能使得用于耕作的土地数量相对于产量未增长时数量减少了11-17%，导致有更多土地被抛荒。 5. Satellite evidence confirms that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations have also resulted in greater productivity of wild terrestrial ecosystems in all vegetation types. 5. 卫星证据确认，持续提升二氧化碳的浓度也在所有植被类型的野生陆地生态系统中导致了生产率提高。 6. Increasing carbon dioxide concentrations have also increased the productivity of many marine ecosystems. 6. 持续提升的二氧化碳浓度也增加了许多海洋生态系统的生产率。 7. In recent decades, trends in climate-sensitive indicators of human and environ- mental wellbeing have improved and continue to do so despite claims that they would deteriorate because of global warming. 7. 最近数十年，人类和环境健康方面的气候敏感指数的变化趋势已经且持续改善，尽管有人宣称它们将会因全球变暖而出现恶化。 8. Compared with the benefits from carbon dioxide on crop and biosphere productivity, the adverse impacts of carbon dioxide – on the frequency and intensity of extreme weather, on sea level, vector-borne disease prevalence and human health – have been too small to measure or have been swamped by other factors. 8. 与它在农作物和生物圈生产率上所带来的好处相比，二氧化碳的负面影响——在极端天气发生的频率和强度上，在海平面高度上，在传染病流行与人类健康上——实在太小以至难以测量，或被其他因素所抵消。 9. Models used to influence policy on climate change have overestimated the rate of warming, underestimated direct benefits of carbon dioxide, overestimated the harms from climate change and underestimated human capacity to adapt so as to capture the benefits while reducing the harms. 9. 用于影响气候变化政策的那些模型高估了变暖的速度，低估了二氧化碳的直接好处，高估了气候变化的害处，低估了人类适应变化从而抓住好处同时减少害处的能力。 10. It is very likely that the impact of rising carbon dioxide concentrations is currently net beneficial for both humanity and the biosphere generally. These benefits are real, whereas the costs of warming are uncertain. Halting the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations abruptly would deprive people and the planet of the benefits of carbon dioxide much sooner than they would reduce any costs of warming.] 10. 极有可能的是，对于人类乃至整个生物圈，二氧化碳浓度持续上升的影响时下大体上是一种净收益。这些好处真实可见，而暖化的代价则并不确定。若二氧化碳浓度上升戛然而止，当然可能减少暖化成本，但与此相比，也会更快地剥夺人类和地球自二氧化碳获得的诸多益处。]

It is worth remembering that commercial greenhouses buy carbon dioxide to enhance the growth of plants, so the growth responses are well known — and it’s not until carbon dioxide reaches five times current concentrations that the benefits level out. As Patrick Moore pointed out, those were normal levels for much of earth’s history. 我们最好记住这样一个事实，商业温室会购买二氧化碳来促进植物生长，所以生长率对二氧化碳的这种反应是众所周知的——并且，也不是只有当二氧化碳浓度到了当前水平的5倍时这种益处才显现出来。如Patrick Moore指出，足以促进生长的浓度，只须地球历史上多数时候的正常水平。 In addition, hundreds of “free-air concentration experiments” have measured how much increased carbon dioxide levels enhance crop yields in open fields. So it is fairly easy to work out how much carbon dioxide emissions are helping world agriculture: by about $140 billion a year, or $3 trillion in total so far. If reparations are to be paid, perhaps farmers should pay coal producers (full disclosure: I’m both). 此外，数百项“自由空气浓度试验”已经对大气二氧化碳水平提高多少会增加开旷地上作物产量进行了测量。所以要回答“二氧化碳排放对世界农业发挥了多大促进作用”这个问题就相当容易了：增产价值约每年1400亿美元，或迄今总计3万亿美元。如果说真要支付赔款，说不定农户还应该向煤炭生产商交钱呢（大曝光：我两种身份都有【编注：作者身为第5代Ridley子爵，拥有Northumberland郡的Blagdon庄园产业，该地产上有农地，也有两座煤矿，Ridley家族从中获取地租。】）。 Actually, this may be an underestimate: experiments show that crops tend to benefit more than weeds (most crops have a more responsive kind of photosynthetic machinery called C3, while weeds mostly have a less responsive kind called C4). 事实上，这还可能是种低估：有实验显示，农作物通常比杂草受益更多（绝大多数农作物都具备一种反应更敏捷的光合作用机制，叫做C3，而杂草的光合作用机制绝大部分是C4，后者反应敏捷度较低）。 Increased carbon dioxide enhances drought resistance in plants, benefiting dry regions such as the Sahel, which has greened significantly in recent decades. And Goklany calculates that we need 11-17 per cent less land for feeding the world than we would if we had not increased carbon dioxide levels: so emissions have saved — and enhanced the growth of — a lot of rainforest. 增加二氧化碳会加强植物的抗旱性，使干旱地区受益，如萨赫勒地区最近数十年已显著变绿。并且据Goklany计算，和二氧化碳水平上升前相比，现在养活全世界所需的土地数量可以少11-17%：也可以说，二氧化碳排放拯救了大量热带雨林——而且也促进了其生长。

[Here's one weed experiment, as described in Goklany's report: [以下为Goklany报告中描述的一项杂草实验： "A Chinese experiment tested this idea by enriching carbon dioxide levels over plots of rice to almost twice the ambient level. This enhanced the ear weight of the rice by 37.6% while reducing the growth of a common weed, barnyard grass, by 47.9%, because the faster-growing rice shaded the weeds. Figure 1 illustrates the differing responses to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations of rice, a C3 plant, and the green foxtail Setaria viridis, a grass some- times proposed as a genetic model system to study C4 photosynthesis."] “一项中国实验检测这个想法，通过在稻田上富集近两倍于周边水平的二氧化碳，将稻穗重量增加了37.6%，同时将稗子（一种普通杂草）的生长抑制了47.9%，因为快速生长的水稻遮挡了杂草。图1显示了不同植物对二氧化碳浓度提高的不同反应，水稻，一种C3植物，另一个则是狗尾草，后者常被当做C4光合作用研究的模式生物。”] [For instance a study published last week found the following: [比如，上周发表的一项研究有如下发现： Since 2012, the researchers have pumped extra CO2 into three of six basketball court-sized rings of 80-year-old bush. This has raised the CO2 concentration in the three plots to about 550 parts per million, up from the ambient level of 400 ppm. Measurements revealed that for each unit of water absorbed, the trees in the CO2-enriched rings reaped 35 per cent more carbon than the trees in the control plots.] 自2012年以来，在六块篮球场大小的、生长着80岁树龄灌木丛的环形地块上，研究者在其中三个地块灌注了超量的CO2，这三个地块的CO2浓度提升到了550ppm，而环境水平为400ppm。测量显示，针对每一吸水单位，富含CO2 的地块的林木所获得的碳量比控制地块要多出35%。]

Well, all right, but surely the climate harms will one day outweigh the growth benefits? Not necessarily. 好吧，就算是这样，但总有一天气候危害肯定会超过生长之利吗？未必。 At the moment, impacts from the modest warming we saw in the 1980s and 1990s are also positive: slightly fewer premature deaths, which peak in cold weather more than in hot weather, slightly longer growing seasons and so on. 目前看来，我们从1980年代和1990年代的最温和的变暖中所看到的影响是正面的：早逝数量稍有减少（早逝通常在天气寒冷时达到峰值，比在炎热时严重），生长季节稍有延长，等等。 A paper published last week concludes that if the world does warm significantly, China’s rain systems will shift north, increasing rainfall in the dry north and reducing flooding in the hot south. 而上周发布的一项报告得出的结论是，如果全球确实大幅变暖，那中国的降雨系统将会北移，北部干旱地区的雨量会持续增加，南方炎热地区的洪涝将持续减少。 Besides, human adaptation means we can capture the benefits and avoid the harms. The IPCC’s forecast warming range includes the possibility that we will still be enjoying net benefits by the end of the century, when the world will (it says) be three to 16 times richer per capita. The fastest way to cut deaths from bad weather today (such as the storm that just battered the Philippines) is to make people richer, not to make weather safer: we have already cut world death rates from droughts, floods and storms by 98 per cent in the past century. 此外，人类的适应能力意味着我们能够抓住好处，同时规避危害。IPCC预测的变暖范围中，便包含了我们在本世纪末仍能享受变暖净收益的可能性，那时全世界人均富裕程度将是目前的3-16倍（报告如是说）。今天，要减少因恶劣天气（如刚刚袭击菲律宾的暴风雨）致死数量的最快方法是让人们变得更加富裕，而不是使天气更安全：过去一个世纪中，我们已将因干旱、洪涝和暴风雨的世界死亡率降低了98%。 As Goklany demonstrates, the assessments used by policy makers have overestimated warming so far, underestimated the direct benefits of carbon dioxide, overestimated the harms from climate change, and underestimated the human capacity to adapt. 如Goklany所论证的，迄今政策制定者所用那些评估高估了变暖，低估了二氧化碳的直接好处，高估了气候变化的危害，低估了人类调整适应的能力。 Well, what about the ocean? Here too there’s good news. More carbon dioxide means faster growth rates of photosynthesisers in the sea as well as on land, an effect that is being observed in algae, eelgrasses, corals and especially plankton, such as the abundant creatures known as coccolithophores, whose biomass has increased by 40 per cent in the last two centuries. 好吧，那海洋呢？这里也有好消息。更多的二氧化碳，意味着海中能进行光合作用的生物生长速度也会更快，和陆上的一样，这一效应已在海藻、鳗草、珊瑚，特别是浮游生物（比如颗石藻这种数量巨多的生物）身上观察到，颗石藻的生物量过去20个世纪以来已增长了40%。

[This is what the authors said about coccolithophores: [作者们如此提到颗石藻： "Here, we present laboratory evidence that calcification and net primary production in the coccolithophore species Emiliania huxleyi are significantly increased by high CO₂ partial pressures. Field evidence from the deep ocean is consistent with these laboratory conclusions, indicating that over the past 220 years there has been a 40% increase in average coccolith mass. Our findings show that coccolithophores are already responding and will probably continue to respond to rising atmospheric CO₂ partial pressures, which has important implications for biogeochemical modeling of future oceans and climate."] “我们在此展示的实验室证据表明，由于更高的CO2分压，使得颗石藻物种的郝氏颗石藻的钙化和净初级生产量显著增加。采自深海的野外探查证据也与这种实验室结论一致，它们指明过去220年间，颗石藻种群的重量平均有40%的增长。我们的发现表明，颗石藻已经并且可能继续对持续上升的大气中CO2分压做出反应，这对未来的海洋和气候的生物地球化学建模具有重要含义。”]

That’s not to say coral reefs and fisheries are not in trouble — they are, but because of pollution, overfishing and run-off, not carbon dioxide. The tiny reduction in alkalinity (misleadingly termed “acidification”) caused by dissolved carbon dioxide is potentially negative in the distant future, but has been much exaggerated — as a big review of 372 studies has concluded. One recent experiment with a common Caribbean coral found that rising carbon dioxide levels would have no impact on its ability to build reefs for several centuries, while modest warming would actually help it slightly. 这并不是说珊瑚礁和渔场现在没有麻烦——它们有，但那是因为污染、滥捕和径流，而非二氧化碳。由二氧化碳分解所导致的碱度微量减少（“酸化”这个术语是误导性的）在遥远的未来是潜在负面的，但这也被极度夸大了——正如一份基于372项研究的大型综述所显示。近期针对一种普通的加勒比珊瑚所做的一项实验发现，提高二氧化碳含量对其在数世纪内形成珊瑚礁的能力没有影响，而且温和变暖实际上还对之稍有帮助。

[This is what that meta-analysis concluded from a comprehensive survey of all studies: [以下是在对所有的研究综述进行统合分析后得出的结论： "In summary, our analysis shows that marine biota is more resistant to ocean acidification than suggested by pessimistic predictions identifying ocean acidification as a major threat to marine biodiversity (Kleypas et al., 1999; Orr et al., 2005; Raven, 2005; Sponberg, 2007; Zondervan et al., 2001), which may not be the widespread problem conjured into the 21st century. Ocean acidification will enhance growth of marine autotrophs and reduce fertility and metabolic rates, but effects are likely to be minor along the range of pCO2 predicted for the 21st century, and feedbacks between positive responses of autotrophs and pH may further buffer the impacts."] “总之，我们的分析显示，与悲观预测将海洋酸化认定为对海洋生物多样性的一种主要威胁相比，海洋生物群更耐酸化。这种威胁不可能是21世纪的一个普遍问题。海洋酸化将加强海洋自养生物的生长，减少生育及代谢率，然而按照对21世纪的pCO2变动范围的预测，其效应很可能是轻微的，并且自养生物的积极响应与ph值之间的反馈机制可能进一步缓冲这种影响。”]

With tens of thousands of activists and bureaucrats heading for a UN conference in Paris next month, there is such vast vested interest now in demonising carbon dioxide that it will be hard to change the world’s mind. Freeman Dyson laments that “scientific colleagues who believe the prevailing dogma about carbon dioxide will not find Goklany’s evidence convincing”, but hopes that a few will try. Amen. 下月，有数万名活动人士和政府官员将奔赴巴黎的一个联合国会议，当下对二氧化碳的妖魔化背后有着大量的既得利益，很难改变世人的想法。Freeman Dyson叹惜“在二氧化碳问题上相信主流教条的科学界同行们将不会觉得Goklany的证据有说服力”，但希望仍有一些人会去尝试。阿门。

[Dyson went on: [Dyson接着说： "That is to me the central mystery of climate science. It is not a scientific mystery but a human mystery. How does it happen that a whole generation of scientific experts is blind to obvious facts? “对我来说，那就是气候科学的核心谜团。它不是个科学的谜团，而是人类的谜团。究竟是什么导致整整一代科学专家看不到明显的事实？ ...Indur Goklany has assembled a massive collection of evidence to demonstrate two facts. First, the non-climatic effects of carbon dioxide are dominant over the climatic effects and are overwhelmingly beneficial. Second, the climatic effects observed in the real world are much less damaging than the effects predicted by the climate models, and have also been frequently beneficial. ……Indur Goklany汇编了巨量证据来证明两个事实。第一，相比其气候效应，二氧化碳的非气候效应要突出得多，而且益处是压倒性的。第二，真实世界中观察到的气候效应，其破坏性大大低于气候模型的预测，而且经常是有利的。 I am hoping that the scientists and politicians who have been blindly demonizing carbon dioxide for 37 years will one day open their eyes and look at the evidence. 我一直希望，那些37年来盲目妖魔化二氧化碳的科学家和政治家们有一天能够睁开他们的眼睛，看看证据。 Goklany and I do not claim to be infallible. Like the climate-model experts, we have also evolved recently from the culture of the cave-children. Like them, we have inherited our own set of prejudices and blindnesses. Truth emerges when different groups of explorers listen to each other’s stories and correct each other’s mistakes."] Goklany和我并不自认绝对正确。跟那些气候模型专家们一样，我们也刚刚从洞穴儿童文化中进化出来。和他们一样，我们也继承了自己那套偏见和盲目。当不同的探索者群体相互倾听彼此的故事，相互纠正彼此的错误时，真相才会浮现。”]

Post-script: 附： This column produced a lot of commentary. In response to one especially misleading article in the Guardian, Indur Goklany made the following point: 本专栏引发了大量评论。在回应《卫报》上一篇具有相当误导性的文章时，Indur Goklany如此说道：

Your correspondent, Mr. Nuccitelli, hasn’t read with sufficient care the GWPF report he is criticizing. Had he done so, he would have known better than to present the figure from the IPCC of estimated crop yields through the year 2109, or repeat Dr. Betts' claim that studies on crops include CO2 effects, without noting that the vast majority of crop studies did not, in fact, consider CO2 effects. Specifically, the GWPF report (at page 29) notes: 你们的记者，Nuccitelli先生，并未充分仔细地阅读他所批评的GWPF报告。假如他仔细阅读了，他会明白更多而不仅仅是拿出IPCC对截止2109年的作物产量的估测数字，或只是重复Dr. Betts关于作物研究包含CO2效应的声明，而不去注意到事实上绝大部分作物研究并未考虑CO2效应。具体来说，GWPF报告（第29页）提到： The IPCC AR5 synthesis of modelled estimates of the impact of recent climate trends on yields for major staple crops notes, in a remarkable understatement, that ‘[s]ome included effects of positive carbon dioxide trends...but most did not’ (Ref. 175). In fact, only 2 of 56 studies considered carbon dioxide increases (Ref. 176). For this reason alone the IPCC’s claim that the impacts of global warming to date on agricultural productivity and food security are likely negative is suspect. IPCC第五次评估报告在综述有关最近气候趋势对主要作物产量之影响的模型估测时，以令人吃惊的轻描淡写口气提出，“其中有些考虑到了二氧化碳增加的影响……但多数则没有”（引用175）。事实上，56项研究中只有2项考虑了二氧化碳的增加（引用176）。仅此一点，IPCC关于迄今为止的全球变暖对农业生产率和食物安全的影响趋于负面的断言，便是很可疑的。 References 175 and 176 (within the quote) both refer to the IPCC AR5 WGII’s chapter 7 (on Food Security and Food Production Systems), page 492, Figure 7–2. Ref. 176 also notes that “Remarkably, according to Figure 7–2, the studies that considered carbon dioxide suggest that the carbon dioxide effect reduces yields.” To put that into plain English, these studies, or their interpretations, are not credible. 引用175和引用176（在引文以内）提及的都是IPCC第五次评估报告第二工作组部分第7章（“食品安全与食品生产体制”），第492页，图7-2。引用176还提到，“值得注意的是，根据图7—2，考虑了二氧化碳的那些研究提出，二氧化碳效应会减少产量。”直白地说，这些研究，或是他们的解释，都无法令人信服。 Note that the figure on future crop yields presented in Mr. Nutticelli’s article draws from Figure 7-2 referred to in the foregoing. 注意，Nutticelli先生的文章中展示的关于未来作物产量数据，就来自刚刚提到的图7-2。 The GWPF report also notes that impact assessments in general and crop studies in particular: GWPF报告还一般的，就影响评估，以及特别的，就农作物研究，指出： 1. Employ scenarios that overstate warming rates by anywhere between 2- to 4-fold. Even the IPCC has noted the tendency of models to exaggerate the rate of warming. See pages 24-25 of the GWPF report, and p. 769, Chapter 9, IPCC AR5 WGI. This matters for two reasons. Firstly, the world is unlikely to be as warm as projected by the IPCC’s scenarios. Secondly, the lower the rate of warming, the lower the magnitude of negative impacts. 1. 运用了夸大变暖速度2-4倍的设想场景。甚至连IPCC也已经注意到各类模型夸大变暖速度的倾向。见GWPF报告第24-25页，第769页，第9章及IPCC第五次评估第一工作组部分。这很重要，原因有二。第一，世界不太可能像IPCC设想场景那样温暖。第二，变暖速度越慢，负面影响的程度越低。 2. Do not fully account for technological change that ought to occur between now and 2109 (the date used in your correspondent’s figure), which would reduce the net negative impacts of climate change while simultaneously making it easier to adapt to them. 2. 没有充分考虑到从今至2109年间（贵刊记者的数据中所用日期）肯定会发生的技术变革 ，而这些技术变革将会在减少气候变化净负面影响的同时，使得适应它们变得更容易。 For all these reasons the IPCC’s estimates of future impacts are prone to large overestimates, and the figure presented by your correspondent is suspect, to put it mildly. 由于以上所有理由，客气点说，IPCC对未来影响的预测倾向于大大高估，而你们的记者所使用的数据则很可疑。

（编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

It’s finally out–The big review paper on the lack of political diversity in social psychology 终于来啦：关于社会心理学缺乏政治多元性的大型综述论文 作者：Jonathan Haidt @ 2015-9-14 译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 校对：龟海海 来源：Heterodox Academy，http://heterodoxacademy.org/2015/09/14/bbs-paper-on-lack-of-political-diversity/ Heterodox Academy has its origins in a collaborative effort by five social psychologists and a sociologist to study a problem that has long been noted in psychology: nearly everyone in the field is on the left, politically. We have been working together since 2011 to write a paper explaining how this situation came about, how it reduces the quality of science published in social psychology, and what can be done to improve the science. (Note that none of us self-identifies as conservative.)  In the process we discovered the work of the other scholars in other fields who joined with us to create this site. “异端学院”发端于五位社会心理学家和一位社会学家对心理学领域早被注意到的一个问题的合作研究：该领域中几乎所有人都是政治上的左派。自2011年始，我们就一直在共同写作一篇论文，解释这一现象是如何产生的、它如何降低了社会心理学领域所发表的科学文章的质量，以及为改进这一科学可以做些什么。（注意我们之中没人自认为是保守派）在此过程中，我们发现了其他一些学者在其它领域的研究成果，他们加入了我们的队伍，一起创建了这个网站。 Our paper is finally published this week! A preprint of the manuscript was posted last year, but now we have the final typeset version, plus the 33 commentaries. Here is a link to the PDF of the final manuscript, on the website of Behavioral and Brain Sciences. (Thanks to Paul Bloom for his wise and patient editorship.) Here’s a link to a page linking to HTML versions of all the documents. But because our article is long (13 dense pages) and the 33 commentaries are longer (another 31 pages) — and then there’s our response (another 7 pages) — we recognize that few people will ever read the whole package. 我们的论文终于在本周出版啦！我们去年曾贴出原稿的预印本，但现在我们已经有了排版稿，外加33条评论。以下是《行为与脑科学》杂志网站上最终稿的PDF版链接（感谢Paul Bloom明确且细致的编辑工作。）以下则是所有文档的HTML版的网页链接。不过，由于我们的文章很长（密密麻麻13页），那33条评论更长（加31页）——还有我们的回应（再加7页）——我们认为没什么人会读完全部材料。 For all these reasons, we offer here a “CliffsNotes” version, giving the basics of our argument using excerpts copied directly from the paper.  [Occasional comments from me–Jonathan Haidt–are interspersed in brackets] Please also see this post by Lee Jussim, explaining why we think this problem is so serious. In a later post Jarret Crawford summarizes the 33 commentaries on our article. 出于以上理由，我们现在提供一份“克里夫笔记”【导读荟萃】版，通过对论文的直接复制摘录，给出我们的论证要点。[间或在括号中加入了由我（Jonathan Haidt）写的评论]。此外，还请阅读Lee Jussim发布的这个帖子，他解释了我们为何认为这个问题很严重。在之后的一片帖子中，Jarret Crawford总结了33条关于我们文章的评论。 CITATION: Duarte, J. L., Crawford, J. T., Stern, C., Haidt, J., Jussim, L., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015). Political diversity will improve social psychological science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 38, 1-13.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X14000430[and try this link, with no paywall, or this link to the preprint version] 引用：Duarte, J. L., Crawford, J. T., Stern, C., Haidt, J., Jussim, L., & Tetlock, P. E. (2015). 政治多样性将会改善社会心理科学。《行为和脑科学》, 38, 1-13.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X14000430[另外，试试这个链接，没有付费墙，或者这个预印本] ABSTRACT 摘要 Psychologists have demonstrated the value of diversity – particularly diversity of viewpoints – for enhancing creativity, discovery, and problem solving. But one key type of viewpoint diversity is lacking in academic psychology in general and social psychology in particular: political diversity. 心理学家已向我们展示，多元性——特别是视角的多元性——对于提高创造力、促进新发现和解决问题的价值。但是，一般而言在学院心理学以及特别而言在社会心理学领域，却缺乏一种关键形式的视角多元性：政治多元性。 This article reviews the available evidence and finds support for four claims: (1) Academic psychology once had considerable political diversity, but has lost nearly all of it in the last 50 years. 本文考察了可见的证据，并为下列四个论断提供了支撑：(1)学院心理学过去曾有过相当大的政治多元性，但在过去50年间几乎已将其丧失殆尽。 (2) This lack of political diversity can undermine the validity of social psychological science via mechanisms such as the embedding of liberal values into research questions and methods, steering researchers away from important but politically unpalatable research topics, and producing conclusions that mischaracterize liberals and conservatives alike. (2)这种政治多元性的缺乏，可能破坏社会心理科学的有效性，破坏可能通过这样一些机制发生：将自由派价值观预置于研究问题和方法中，引导研究者避开事关重大但在政治上不受待见的研究课题，并得出对自由派抑或保守派特征的错误描绘。 (3) Increased political diversity would improve social psychological science by reducing the impact of bias mechanisms such as confirmation bias, and by empowering dissenting minorities to improve the quality of the majority’s thinking. (3)增加政治多元性，能够改善社会心理科学，其途径包括降低偏见机制如确认偏误的影响，让持异议的少数派有机会改进多数派的思考质量。 (4) The underrepresentation of non-liberals in social psychology is most likely due to a combination of self-selection, hostile climate, and discrimination. We close with recommendations for increasing political diversity in social psychology. (4)社会心理学中非自由派的人数不足，最有可能是自我选择、敌对气氛以及歧视等因素共同作用的结果。文章结尾我们就增进社会心理学中政治多元化提出了一些建议。

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1. Introduction 1. 导论 In the last few years, social psychology has faced a series of challenges to the validity of its research, including a few high-profile replication failures, a handful of fraud cases, and several articles on questionable research practices and inflated effect sizes… In this article, we suggest that one largely overlooked cause of failure is a lack of political diversity. We review evidence suggesting that political diversity and dissent would improve the reliability and validity of social psychological science… 过去数年间，社会心理学在其研究有效性上面临一系列挑战，包括一些众人瞩目的试验重复失败，一些造假事件，还有一些文章用的是有问题的研究操作和夸大的效应量……我们在本文中表明，此种失败的一个原因受到广泛忽视，即缺乏政治多元性。我们考察了相关证据，表明政治多元性和异议能够改进社会心理科学的可靠性和有效性…… We focus on conservatives as an underrepresented group because the data on the prevalence in psychology of different ideological groups is best for the liberal-conservative contrast – and the departure from the proportion of liberals and conservatives in the U.S. population is so dramatic. However, we argue that the field needs more non-liberals however they specifically self-identify (e.g., libertarian, moderate)… 我们将保守派这个代表性不足的群体作为关注焦点，因为在心理学中，不同意识形态群体的流行程度数据最适合进行自由派－保守派对比，也因为与全美人口的自由派与保守派占比相比，心理学领域偏差极为惊人。不过，我们论证道，这个领域需要更多非自由派，无论他们的自我认同具体为何（如自由意志主义者、温和派等）…… The lack of political diversity is not a threat to the validity of specific studies in many and perhaps most areas of research in social psychology. The lack of diversity causes problems for the scientific process primarily in areas related to the political concerns of the Left – areas such as race, gender, stereotyping, environmentalism, power, and inequality – as well as in areas where conservatives themselves are studied, such as in moral and political psychology. 多元政治的缺乏对某些特定领域（或许是大多数社会心理学领域）的研究有效性，并不构成威胁。多元政治的缺失造成问题的主要是科研过程中涉及那些跟左派的政治关怀有关的领域——如种族、性别、刻板印象、环保主义、权力和不平等，以及在那些研究对象就包括了保守派的领域——如道德和政治心理学。

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2. Psychology is less politically diverse than ever 2. 心理学的政治多元性之少史无前例 [In this section we review all available information on the political party identification of psychologists, as well as their liberal-conservative self descriptions. The graph below says it all. Whichever of those two measures you use, you find a big change after 1990. Before the 1990s, academic psychology only LEANED left. Liberals and Democrats outnumbered Conservatives and Republican by 4 to 1 or less. But as the “greatest generation” retired in the 1990s and was replaced by baby boomers, the ratio skyrocketed to something more like 12 to 1. In just 20 years. Few psychologists realize just how quickly or completely the field has become a political monoculture. This graph took us by surprise too.] [本部分我们就心理学家的政治党派认同以及他们对属于自由派还是保守派的自我描述，回顾所有可以找到的信息。下列图表说明了一切。不论你采用两种测量方法中的哪一种，你都能发现1990年后发生了一个重大变化。1990年代以前，学院心理学只是倾向左派。自由派和民主党比保守派和共和党多，比率为4:1及以下。但到了1990年代，“最伟大的一代”退休【译注：指1920年代生人，因其经历大萧条、二战、战后重建而与美国同铸辉煌而得此名】，“婴儿潮一代”取而代之【译注：指战后至1960年代中期生人】，这一比率飙升到12:1以上的程度。只用了20年。极少有心理学家意识到这一领域转变为一种政治单一栽培的快速程度和彻底程度。这个图标也令我们大吃一惊。] Figure 1. The political party and ideological sympathies of academic psychologists have shifted leftward over time. Circles show ratios of self-reports of liberal vs. conservative. Diamonds show ratios of self-reports of party preference or voting (Democrat vs. Republican). Data for 1924–60 is reported in McClintock et al. (1965). Open diamonds are participants’ recollections of whom they voted for; gray diamonds are self-reported party identification at time of the survey. Data for 1999 is reported in Rothman et al. (2005). Data from 2006 is reported in Gross and Simmons (2007). The right-most circle is from Inbar and Lammers (2012) and is the ratio of selfidentified liberal/conservative social psychologists. 图1. 学院心理学家的政治党派和意识形态倾向已经随时间流逝而趋向左转。圆形表示自陈自由派的与自陈保守派的比率。菱形则表示自陈的政党偏好或投票记录（民主党vs.共和党）的比率。1924-60年数据据McClintock 等（1965）。空心菱形是参与者对投票给谁的回忆；灰色菱形则是被调查时自陈的政党身份。1999年的数据据Rothman等（2005）。2006年的数据据Gross和 Simmons （2007）。最右边的圆形则来自Inbar和Lammers（2012），指的是自认自由派和自认保守派的社会心理学家之比。

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3. Three ways that the lack of diversity undermines social psychology 3. 多元性的缺乏对社会心理学造成破坏的三种方式 Might a shared moral-historical narrative [the “liberal progress” narrative described by sociologist Christian Smith] in a politically homogeneous field undermine the self-correction processes on which good science depends? We think so, and present three risk points— three ways in which political homogeneity can threaten the validity of social psychological science—and examples from the extant literature illustrating each point. 在一个政治同质化的领域内，一种共享的道德-历史叙事（社会学家Christian Smith所描绘的那种“自由进步”叙事），会破坏良好科学所赖以存在的自我纠正过程吗？我们认为会，并提出了三个风险点——政治同质性能够威胁社会心理科学有效性的三种方式，针对每一点，我们都从现存文献中提出例证来作了说明。 3.1. Risk point 1: Liberal values and assumptions can become embedded into theory and method 3.1. 风险点之一：自由派价值观和假设可能预装到理论和方法之中 The embedding of values occurs when value statements or ideological claims are wrongly treated as objective truth, and observed deviation from that truth is treated as error. 当价值陈述或意识形态主张被错误地当成客观真理对待时，或者与这一真理有出入的现象被观测到，却被当成错误对待时，价值观的预装就发生了。 [Example:] and McBride (2007) found that: 1) people high in social dominance orientation (SDO) were more likely to make unethical decisions, 2) people high in right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) were more likely to go along with the unethical decisions of leaders, and 3) dyads with high SDO leaders and high RWA followers made more unethical decisions than dyads with alternative arrangements (e.g., low SDO—low RWA dyads). [例证：]Son Hing, Bobocel, Zanna和 McBride（2007）发现：1）社会支配倾向（SDO）高的人更可能作出不道德的决定，2）右翼权威主义（RWA）程度高的人更可能遵从领导人作出的不道德决定，以及3）高SDO的领导人与高RWA的追随者这一组合作出的不道德决定比其它形式的排列组合（如低SDO和低RWA组合）要多。 Yet consider the decisions they defined as unethical: not formally taking a female colleague’s side in her sexual harassment complaint against her subordinate (given little information about the case), and a worker placing the well-being of his or her company above unspecified harms to the environment attributed to the company’s operations. Liberal values of feminism and environmentalism were embedded directly into the operationalization of ethics, even to the extent that participants were expected to endorse those values in vignettes that lacked the information one would need to make a considered judgment. 不过，看看被他们界定为不道德的决定：在女性同事对其下属提出性骚扰投诉时不正式站在她的一边（几乎没有任何案件相关信息），工人将他或她所属公司的利益置于未明确说明的环境损害之上（这种损害被归罪于该公司的运营）。自由派的女性主义和环保主义价值取向被直接预装进了伦理概念的执行之中，甚至到了这种程度：在某个场景下缺乏信息的个体不得不做出审慎判断，仍指望参与者支持这些价值。 The appearance of certain words that imply pernicious motives (e.g., deny, legitimize, rationalize, justify, defend, trivialize) may be particularly indicative of research tainted by embedded values. 对某些特定词汇的使用，暗中指涉险恶的动机（如拒斥、合法化、合理化、正当化、维护、琐碎化等）。出现这些词汇，可能就具有特别的标志性，表明研究已被预装的价值观污染。 3.2. Risk point 2: Researchers may concentrate on topics that validate the liberal progress narrative and avoid topics that contest that narrative 3.2 风险点之二：研究者可能全神关注那些能够证实自由进步叙事的论题，避开那些对这一叙事构成质疑的论题 Since the enlightenment, scientists have thought of themselves as spreading light and pushing back the darkness. The metaphor is apt, but in a politically homogeneous field, a larger-than-optimal number of scientists shine their flashlights on ideologically important regions of the terrain. Doing so leaves many areas unexplored. Even worse, some areas become walled off, and inquisitive researchers risk ostracism if they venture in. 自启蒙运动以来，科学家们一直认为自己所做的，乃是拒绝黑暗、传播光明的事业。这个暗喻是恰当的，不过，在一个政治同质化的地界，把灯光照向境内那些在意识形态上很重要的领域的科学家数目实在是多得过分。这么做会令许多领域无人探索。更糟糕的是，有些领域还会被高墙围起来，任何求知好问的研究者胆敢冒险进入，就有被放逐的风险。 [Example:] Stereotype accuracy. Since the 1930s, social psychologists have been proclaiming the inaccuracy of social stereotypes, despite lacking evidence of such inaccuracy. Evidence has seemed unnecessary because stereotypes have been, in effect, stereotyped as inherently nasty and inaccurate (see Jussim, 2012a for a review). [例证：]刻板印象的准确性。自1930年代起，社会心理学家一直声称，社会刻板印象是不准确的，尽管他们拿不出相关证据。此类证据一直被视为毫无必要，因为刻板印象本身事实上已经被刻板印象化了，成了一种本质上恶劣且不准确的事物（评论见Jussim, 2012a）。 Some group stereotypes are indeed hopelessly crude and untestable. But some may rest on valid empiricism—and represent subjective estimates of population characteristics (e.g. the proportion of people who drop out of high school, are victims of crime, or endorse policies that support women at work, see Jussim, 2012a, Ryan, 2002 for reviews). 某些群体刻板印象确实无可救药地生硬粗糙、不可验证。但还有一些，则可能确实建立在有效的经验主义基础之上——并体现了对于人群特征的主观估计（比如高中辍学的人口比例、罪案受害者的人口比例、支持职业女性的政策的支持者比例等，评论见Jussim, 2012a和Ryan，2002）。 In this context, it is not surprising that the rigorous empirical study of the accuracy of factual stereotypes was initiated by one of the very few self-avowed conservatives in social psychology—Clark McCauley (McCauley & Stitt, 1978). Since then, dozens of studies by independent researchers have yielded evidence that stereotype accuracy (of all sorts of stereotypes) is one of the most robust effects in all of social psychology (Jussim, 2012a). 在这种氛围中，毫不稀奇，关于有事实基础的刻板印象之准确性，最严谨的经验研究是由社会心理学领域极少见的自陈保守派之一——Clark McCauley开创的（McCauley和Stitt, 1978）。自那以后，独立研究者的数十种研究已经得出证据，在所有社会心理学成果中，（关于所有种类的刻板印象的）刻板印象准确性之说乃是最为有力的之一（Jussim, 2012a）。 Here is a clear example of the value of political diversity: a conservative social psychologist asked a question nobody else thought (or dared) to ask, and found results that continue to make many social psychologists uncomfortable. McCauley’s willingness to put the assumption of stereotype inaccuracy to an empirical test led to the correction of one of social psychology’s most longstanding errors. 这是政治多元性之价值的清楚一例：一个保守派社会心理学家追问了一个别人都没想过（或敢于）去问的问题，并得出了一个让许多社会心理学家现在仍一直感到不舒服的结论。McCauley决心对刻板印象不准确这一假设进行经验验证，这就导致了对于社会心理学中最长寿错误之一的纠正。 3.3. Risk point 3: Negative attitudes regarding conservatives can produce a psychological science that mischaracterizes their traits and attributes 3.3 风险点之三：对于保守派的负面看法可能导致心理科学错误地描绘保守派的特征和性质 A long-standing view in social-political psychology is that the right is more dogmatic and intolerant of ambiguity than the left, a view Tetlock (1983) dubbed the rigidity-of-the-right hypothesis…. But had social psychologists studied a broad enough range of situations to justify these broad conclusions? Recent evidence suggests not. 社会—政治心理学中存在已久的一个看法是，右派比左派更为教条，更不能容忍模棱两可。Tetlock（1983）将这种看法叫作“右派的死板”假说……但是，社会心理学家为了证明这种一般性的结论，是否研究过范围足够广泛的情形？近来的证据显示：并非如此。 The ideologically objectionable premise model (IOPM; Crawford, 2012) posits that people on the political left and right are equally likely to approach political judgments with their ideological blinders on. That said, they will only do so when the premise of a political judgment is ideologically acceptable. If it’s objectionable, any preferences for one group over another will be short-circuited, and biases won’t emerge. 据“意识形态争议性前提模型”（IOPM; Crawford, 2012）推断，政治上的左派和右派戴着意识形态眼罩形成政治判断的可能性是一样大的。当然，这只会发生于政治判断的前提在意识形态上可以接受的情况下。如果这一前提是可争议的，那么偏好其中任意一个群体都会引起直接短路，偏见就不会出现。 The IOPM thus allows for biases to emerge only among liberals, only among conservatives, or among both liberals and conservatives, depending on the situation. For example, reinterpreting Altemeyer’s mandatory school prayer results, Crawford (2012) argued that for people low in RWA who value individual freedom and autonomy, mandatory school prayer is objectionable; thus, the very nature of the judgment should shut off any biases in favor of one target over the other. 由此，随着情况的不同，IOPM模型可让偏见仅出现于自由派中，或仅出现于保守派中，或同时出现于自由派和保守派中。比如，Crawford（2012）在重新解释Altemeyer的强制性学校祷告数据时论证到，对于右翼权威主义（RWA）程度低、看重个体自由与自主的人，强制性学校祷告是可争议的；因此，这一判断的性质本身会将任何重此轻彼的偏见排斥在外。 However, for people high in RWA who value society-wide conformity to traditional morals and values, mandating school prayer is acceptable; this acceptable premise then allows for people high in RWA to express a bias in favor of Christian over Muslim school prayer. 然而，对于RWA程度高、看重全社会对传统道德和价值观的遵从的人，强制性学校祷告是可以接受的；于是，这种可接受的前提就会让RWA程度高的人表达出重基督教校园祈祷者、轻穆斯林校园祈祷者的偏见。 Crawford (2012, Study 1) replaced mandatory prayer with voluntary prayer, which would be acceptable to both people high and low in RWA. In line with the IOPM, people high in RWA were still biased in favor of Christian over Muslim prayer, while people low in RWA now showed a bias in favor of Muslim over Christian voluntary prayer. Hypocrisy is therefore not necessarily a special province of the right. Crawford（2012，研究1）用自愿祈祷者代替强制祈祷者，于是前提变成了对于RWA程度高和低的两种人都可以接受。与IOPM模型预测一致，RWA程度高的人仍然存在重基督教祈祷者、轻穆斯林祈祷者的偏见，与此同时，RWA程度低的人现在表现出重穆斯林自愿祈祷者、轻基督教自愿祈祷者的偏见。因此，虚伪矫饰可不一定是右派的特殊地盘。 These example illustrate the threats to truth-seeking that emerge when members of a politically homogenous intellectual community are motivated to cast their perceived outgroup (i.e., the ones who violate the liberal progressive narrative) in a negative light. If there were more social psychologists who were motivated to question the design and interpretation of studies biased towards liberal values during peer review, or if there were more researchers running their own studies using different methods, social psychologists could be more confident in the validity of their characterizations of conservatives (and liberals). 这些例子说明，当一个政治同质化的知识群体的成员被鼓励用一种负面灯光去映照他们所理解的圈外人士（比如，冒犯自由进步叙事的人）时，追求真理的事业会受到何种威胁。如果在同行评审中，能有更多的社会心理学家被鼓励去质疑那些偏向自由派价值观的研究的设计和解释，如果能有更多的研究者采用不同的方法来进行他们自己的研究，社会心理学家就能对他们关于保守派（和自由派）的描绘的可信度拥有更多自信。

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4. Why political diversity is likely to improve social psychological science 4. 为什么政治多元性有可能改进社会心理科学 Diversity can be operationalized in many ways, including demographic diversity (e.g., ethnicity, race, and gender) and viewpoint diversity (e.g., variation in intellectual viewpoints or professional expertise). 将多元性这一概念变得可操作的方式很多，包括人口学多元化（如族群、种族和性别）和视角多元化（比如各种不同的知识视角或专业技能）。 Research in organizational psychology suggest that: a) the benefits of viewpoint diversity are more consistent and pronounced than those of demographic diversity (Menz, 2012; Williams & O’Reilly, 1998); and 组织心理学研究表明：a）视角多元化比人口学多元化的益处更为一贯、更为显著（Menz, 2012; Williams & O’Reilly, 1998）；又 b) the benefits of viewpoint diversity are most pronounced when organizations are pursuing open-ended exploratory goals (e.g., scientific discovery) as opposed to exploitative goals (e.g., applying well-established routines to well-defined problems; Cannella, Park & Hu, 2008). b）与追求利用性目标（比如，在界定明确的问题上执行已良好确立的例行程序）的组织相比，在追求开放式的探索性目标（比如，科学发现）的组织中，视角多元化的益处最为显著（Cannella, Park & Hu, 2008）。 Viewpoint diversity may therefore be more valuable than demographic diversity if social psychology’s core goal is to produce broadly valid and generalizable conclusions. (Of course, demographic diversity can bring viewpoint diversity, but if it is viewpoint diversity that is wanted, then it may be more effective to pursue it directly.) 因此，如果社会心理学的核心目标在于得出广泛有效且可以一般化的结论，那么视角多元性似乎比人口学多元性更有价值。（当然，人口学多元性能带来视角多元性，但如果我们需要的正是视角多元性，那么直接追求它可能更为有效。） It is the lack of political viewpoint diversity that makes social psychology vulnerable to the three risks described in the previous section. Political diversity is likely to have a variety of positive effects by reducing the impact of two familiar mechanisms that we explore below: confirmation bias and groupthink/majority consensus. 正是政治视角多元性的缺乏，才使得社会心理学在前一部分描述的三大风险面前显得很脆弱。通过削弱我们下面将讨论的两个我们熟知的机制的影响，政治多元性很可能具有多种多样的积极功效：确认偏误和群体思维/多数一致。 4.1. Confirmation bias 4.1 确认偏误 People tend to search for evidence that will confirm their existing beliefs while also ignoring or downplaying disconfirming evidence. This confirmation bias (Nickerson, 1998) is widespread among both laypeople and scientists (Ioannidis, 2012). Confirmation bias can become even stronger when people confront questions that trigger moral emotions and concerns about group identity (Haidt, 2001; 2012). 人们更喜欢为他们已有的信念搜罗证据，同时无视或轻视与既有信念抵触的证据。这种确认偏误（Nickerson, 1998）在外行和科学家中都很常见（Ioannidis, 2012）。当人们面对的问题还能够引发对于群体认同的道德情绪和关怀时，确认偏误可能会变得更为强烈（Haidt, 2001; 2012）。 Further, group-polarization often exacerbates extremism in echo chambers (Lamm & Myers, 1978). [and note from the graph above that social psychology has become an echo chamber since the 1990s] 此外，群体的极化通常还会在回音室中加剧极端主义（Lamm & Myers, 1978）。[并且注意，前面的图表已经显示，社会心理学自1990年代起已经变成了一个回音室]。 Indeed, people are far better at identifying the flaws in other people’s evidence-gathering than in their own, especially if those other people have dissimilar beliefs (e.g., Mercier & Sperber, 2011; Sperber et al., 2010). 实在来说，人们在别人的证据搜集过程中找出错误，可比针对自己时要得心应手得多，特别是当别人具有不同的信念时（如见Mercier & Sperber, 2011; Sperber等, 2010）。 Although such processes may be beneficial for communities whose goal is social cohesion (e.g., a religious or activist movement), they can be devastating for scientific communities by leading to widely-accepted claims that reflect the scientific community’s blind spots more than they reflect justified scientific conclusions (see, e.g., the three risk points discussed previously). 对于目标在于社会团结的共同体（如一个宗教运动或激进运动）来说，这类事情也许是有益的，但是对于科学共同体来说，这将是毁灭性的。因为它们将会导致一些被广泛接受的论断产生，而这些论断更多反映的是科学共同体的盲点，而非科学上得到证明的结论（如见前文所论的三个风险点）。 The most obvious cure for this problem is to increase the viewpoint diversity of the field. Nobody has found a way to eradicate confirmation bias in individuals (Lilienfeld et al., 2009), but we can diversify the field to the point where individual viewpoint biases begin to cancel each other out. 对于这个问题，最显而易见的疗法就是增加该领域的视角多元性。从来没有人找到过在个体身上根除确认偏误的办法（Lilienfeld等, 2009），但我们可以不断增加一个领域的多元性，直到个体的视角偏见开始相互抵消。 4.2. Minority influence 4.2 众从 Minority influence research has focused on the processes by which minorities influence majority members’ (and thus the groups’) reasoning (e.g., Crano, 2012; Moscovici & Personnaz, 1980). Majorities influence decision-making by producing conformity pressure that creates cohesion and community, but they do little to enhance judgmental depth or quality (Crisp & Turner, 2011; Moscovici & Personnaz, 1980). They also risk creating the type of groupthink that has long been a target of criticism by social psychologists (e.g., Fiske, Harris, & Cuddy, 2004; Janis, 1972)…. 众从研究聚焦于一种过程：少数派影响多数成员（进而是整个群体）的论证（如见Crano, 2012; Moscovici & Personnaz, 1980）。多数派通过制造顺从压力影响决策，而这种压力能够创造凝聚力和共同体，但无益于提高决断的深度或质量（Crisp & Turner, 2011; Moscovici & Personnaz, 1980）。他们也导致群体思维的风险，而这被社会心理学家诟病已久（如见Fiske, Harris, & Cuddy, 2004; Janis, 1972）…… There is even evidence that politically diverse teams produce more creative solutions than do politically homogeneous teams on problems such as “how can a person of average talent achieve fame” and how to find funding for a partially-built church ineligible for bank loans (Triandis, Hall, & Ewen, 1965)…. 甚至有证据表明，即使是在“某个资质平平的人如何成名”以及怎样为一个烂尾的教堂筹集资金，取得银行贷款这样的问题上，政治上多元的团队也比政治同质的团队更能找到创造性的解决方案。 In sum, there are grounds for hypothesizing that increased political diversity would improve the quality of social psychological science because it would increase the degree of scientific dissent, especially, on such politicized issues as inequality versus equity, the psychological characteristics of liberals and conservatives, stereotypes, prejudice, and discrimination. Social psychologists have shown these effects in many settings; they could take advantage of them within their own ranks. 总之，政治多元性的增加有助于改善社会心理科学的质量，这一假设是有理有据的，因为它会增加科学分歧的程度。当我们面对的是诸如不平等与平等、自由派和保守派的心理特征、刻板印象、偏见和歧视等等政治化的议题时，情况尤其如此。社会心理学家已经针对许多场合说明过此类效应；他们可以在自己的队伍中好好对其加以利用。

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5. Why are there so few non-liberals in social psychology? 5. 为什么非自由派在社会心理学中难得一见？ the evidence does not point to a single answer. To understand why conservatives are so vastly underrepresented in social psychology, we consider five explanations that have frequently been offered to account for a lack of diversity not just in social psychology, but in other contexts (e.g., the underrepresentation of women and ethnic minorities in STEM fields, e.g., Pinker, 2008). 证据表明，答案不止一个。为了理解为什么保守派在社会心理学中的人数如此不足，我们考虑了五种解释，这五种解释不仅在说明社会心理学中多元性的缺乏时，而且在其它学术文章中也经常被人提到（如在STEM领域内妇女和少数族裔的缺乏，如见Pinker, 2008）【译注：STEM为科学、技术、工程和数学四个学科的英文首字母缩写】。 5.1. Differences in ability 5.1. 能力差异 [Are conservatives simply less intelligent than liberals, and less able to obtain PhDs and faculty positions?] The evidence does not support this view… [published studies are mixed. Part of the complexity is that…] Social conservatism correlates with lower cognitive ability test scores, but economic conservatism correlates with higher scores (Iyer, Koleva, Graham, Ditto, & Haidt, 2012; Kemmelmeier 2008). [Libertarians are the political group with the highest IQ, yet they are underrepresented in the social sciences other than economics] [难道保守派就是没有自由派那么聪明，取得博士学位和教职岗位的能力要差些？]证据不支持这种观点……[已有的研究形形色色。情况的复杂性部分体现在……]社会保守派与认知能力测试得分较低存在相关性，不过经济保守派则与得分较高存在相关性（Iyer, Koleva, Graham, Ditto, & Haidt, 2012; Kemmelmeier 2008）[自由意志主义者是IQ最高的政治团体，但他们在除经济学以外的所有社会科学中人数均不足] 5.2. The effects of education on political ideology 5.2. 政治意识形态教育的影响 Many may view education as “enlightening” and believe that an enlightened view comports with liberal politics. There is little evidence that education causes students to become more liberal. Instead, several longitudinal studies following tens of thousands of college students for many years have concluded that political socialization in college occurs primarily as a function of one’s peers, not education per se (Astin, 1993; Dey, 1997). 许多人可能将教育视为“启蒙”，并相信经过启蒙的观念会与自由派政治一致。鲜有证据表明教育会使得学生更为趋向自由派。几项对数万名大学生的多年追踪研究倒是得出结论认为，大学里的政治社会化过程【译注：指个体形塑政治态度的过程】主要取决于一个人的同伴，而非教育本身（Astin, 1993; Dey, 1997）。 5.3. Differences in interest 5.3. 兴趣差异 Might liberals simply find a career in social psychology (or the academy more broadly) more appealing? Yes, for several reasons. The Big-5 trait that correlates most strongly with political liberalism is openness to experience (r = .32 in Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski, & Sulloways’s 2003 meta-analysis), and people high in that trait are more likely to pursue careers that will let them indulge their curiosity and desire to learn, such as a career in the academy (McCrae, 1996). An academic career requires a Ph.D., and liberals enter (and graduate) college more interested in pursuing Ph.D.s than do conservatives (Woessner & Kelly-Woessner, 2009)… 有没有可能就是因为自由派觉得社会心理学（或更广泛而言，整个学术界）这种职业更有吸引力？有可能，理由有多个。与政治自由主义相关性最强的“五大”人格特点【译注：五大人格特点，指心理学上描述人格特征时常用的五维度模型，分别为外倾性、经验开放性、随和性、神经质和尽责性】就是“经验开放性”（在Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski和 Sulloways 2003年所做的meta分析中，r=0.32），而在这一特点上得分高的人更有可能从事能让他们的好奇心和求知欲得到满足的职业，比如学术事业（McCrae, 1996）。从事学术事业要求博士学位，而入读大学（和从大学毕业）的自由派比保守派更有兴趣谋求博士学位（Woessner & Kelly-Woessner, 2009）…… Such intrinsic variations in interest may be amplified by a “birds of a feather” or “homophile” effect. “Similarity attracts” is one of the most well-established findings in social psychology (Byrne, 1969). As a field begins to lean a certain way, the field will likely become increasingly attractive to people suited to that leaning. 这种兴趣上的内在差异有可能通过“物以类聚”或“同性相爱”效应而得到放大。“同类相吸”是社会心理学中理据最为坚实的成果之一（Byrne, 1969）。随着某个领域开始向一个特定方向倾斜，那么对于适应这种倾斜的人，这个领域就很可能会变得越来越具有吸引力。 Over time the group itself may become characterized by its group members. Professors and scientists may come to be seen as liberal just as nurses are typically thought of as being female. Once that happens, conservatives may disproportionately self-select out of joining the dissimilar group, based on a realistic perception that they “do not fit well.” [See Gross (2013)]… 长此以往，群体本身就被其成员特征化了。教授和科学家可能会逐渐被视为自由派，就像护士经常被理解成为女性一样。一旦如此，保守派就可能自我选择不参加这种异己群体，因为他们有一种现实的认知：他们“合不来”（见Gross , 2013）…… Self-selection clearly plays a role. But it would be ironic if an epistemic community resonated to empirical arguments that appear to exonerate the community of prejudice—when that same community roundly rejects those same arguments when invoked by other institutions to explain the under-representation of women or ethnic minorities (e.g., in STEM disciplines or other elite professions). [Note: we agree that self-selection is a big part of the explanation. If there were no discrimination and no hostile climate, the field would still lean left, as it used to. But it would still have some diversity, and would work much better.] 自我选择很明显起了作用。但是，这种经验论证似乎是在为共同体的歧视行为洗白，如果一个知识共同体与之产生共鸣，这会太讽刺——而且，正是这同一个共同体，在其它机构使用同一论证来解释女性或少数族裔代表性不足的问题时（如在STEM学科或其它精英行业中），对自我选择解释表示了严厉的拒斥。[注意：我们同意，自我选择在原因中占了很大比例。如果不存在歧视、不存在敌对的气氛，这个领域仍然会左倾，正如它在1990年代之前那样。但是它仍会有某种程度的多元性，并会运作得好得多。] 5.4. Hostile climate 5.4. 敌对气氛 Might self-selection be amplified by an accurate perception among conservative students that they are not welcome in the social psychology community? Consider the narrative of conservatives that can be formed from some recent conclusions in social psychological research: compared to liberals, conservatives are less intelligent (Hodson & Busseri, 2012) and less cognitively complex (Jost et al., 2003). They are more rigid, dogmatic, and inflexible (Jost et al., 2003). Their lower IQ explains their racism and sexism (Deary, Batty, & Gale, 2008), and their endorsement of inequality explains why they are happier than liberals (Napier & Jost, 2008). 自我选择有没有可能因为保守派学生的一种正确认知——他们得不到社会心理学共同体的欢迎——而被放大？考虑一下我们能从最近的一些社会心理学研究结论中得出的关于保守派的叙述：比起自由派，保守派没那么聪明（Hodson & Busseri, 2012），认知复杂度没那么高（Jost等, 2003）。他们更死板、更教条、更不懂变通（Jost等, 2003）。他们IQ低，所以他们有种族主义和性别歧视（Deary, Batty, & Gale, 2008），他们对不平等的支持正是他们之所以比自由派更快乐的理由（Napier & Jost, 2008）。 As conservative undergraduates encounter the research literature in their social psychology classes, might they recognize cues that the field regards them and their beliefs as defective? And what happens if they do attend graduate school and take part in conferences, classes, and social events in which almost everyone else is liberal? 当保守派本科生在他们的社会心理学课堂上接触到研究文献时，他们是否可能认出这种信号，猜到这个领域认为他们以及他们的信念存在缺陷？如果他们确实念上了研究生，那么当他们参会、上课、参加社会活动时，发现参与者几乎个个都是自由派，这时会发生什么？ We ourselves have often heard jokes and disparaging comments made by social psychologists about conservatives, not just in informal settings but even from the podium at conferences and lectures. The few conservatives who have enrolled in graduate programs hear these comments too, and some of them wrote to Haidt in the months after his 2011 remarks at the SPSP convention to describe the hostility and ridicule that force them to stay “in the closet” about their political beliefs—or to leave the field entirely. 我们自己就经常听到社会心理学家关于保守派的种种笑话和鄙夷的评论，这不仅出现于非正式场合，而且也出现在会议和讲座的讲台上。注册参加了研究生项目的几个罕见的保守派学生，也听到了这些评论，其中一些在听了Haidt在人格与社会心理学学会2011年年会上所发评论后的几个月里还曾给他写信。他们在信中描写到，敌对和嘲弄迫使他们将自己的政治信念藏在“深柜”——或干脆离开这个领域。 Haidt (2011) put excerpts from these emails online (in anonymous form); representative of them is this one from a former graduate student in a top 10 Ph.D. program: Haidt（2011）在网上贴出了这些邮件的摘录（以匿名形式）；其中一封的作者曾是排名前十的博士项目的研究生，很具有代表性：

I can’t begin to tell you how difficult it was for me in graduate school because I am not a liberal Democrat. As one example, following Bush’s defeat of Kerry, one of my professors would email me every time a soldier’s death in Iraq made the headlines; he would call me out, publicly blaming me for not supporting Kerry in the election. 要向你描述我在研究生院时因为不是自由派民主党而过得有多么艰难，我都没法开始。举个例子吧，布什打败克里之后，每逢有驻伊士兵死亡事件上头条，有位教授就会给我发邮件；他会指名道姓的公开指责我没在选举中支持克里。 I was a reasonably successful graduate student, but the political ecology became too uncomfortable for me. Instead of seeking the professorship that I once worked toward, I am now leaving academia for a job in industry. 作为一个研究生，我相当成功，但政治生态变得令我非常不舒服。我没有去谋求我曾为之奋斗的教授职位，而是离开学术圈，现在在实业部门工作。

Evidence of hostile climate is not just anecdotal. Inbar and Lammers (2012) asked members of the SPSP discussion list: “Do you feel that there is a hostile climate towards your political beliefs in your field?” 敌对气氛存在的证据并非只有个别逸闻。Inbar和 Lammers（2012）曾询问人格与社会心理学学会讨论组成员以下问题：“你是否觉得你所在的领域针对你的政治信念存在一种敌对气氛？” Of 17 conservatives, 14 (82%) responded “yes” (i.e., a response at or above the midpoint of the scale, where the midpoint was labeled “somewhat” and the top point “very much”), with half of those responding “very much.” 17个保守派中，14个（即82%）回答了“是”（即回应大于等于量表的中间选项，中间选项是“有些”，最大值则是“非常”），答“是”的人中又有一半回答的是“非常”。 In contrast, only 18 of 266 liberals (7%) responded “yes”, with only two of those responding “very much.” Interestingly, 18 of 25 moderates (72%) responded “yes,” with one responding “very much.” 与此形成对比的是，266个自由派中只有18个（即7%）回答了“是”，其中只有两个答的是“非常”。有意思的是，25个温和派中有18个（即72%）回答了“是”，1个答“非常”。 This surprising result suggests that the hostile climate may adversely affect not only conservatives, but anyone who is not liberal or whose values do not align with the liberal progress narrative. 这一令人惊讶的结果表明，敌对气氛所产生的负面影响不仅仅是对保守派而言，而且针对所有的非自由派，或者所有价值观不能与自由进步叙事相符的人。 5.5. Discrimination 5.5 歧视 The literature on political prejudice demonstrates that strongly identified partisans show little compunction about expressing their overt hostility toward the other side (e.g., Chambers et al., 2013; Crawford & Pilanski, 2013; Haidt, 2012). Partisans routinely believe that their hostility towards opposing groups is justified because of the threat posed to their values by dissimilar others (see Brandt et al., 2014, for a review). 政治偏见方面的研究文献证明，认同感强烈的党徒毫不避讳公开表达对对方的敌意（如见Chambers等, 2013; Crawford & Pilanski, 2013; Haidt, 2012）。党徒们例行公事般认为他们针对对立团体的敌视态度是合理的，因为异己分子威胁到他们珍视的价值（相关评论见Brandt 等, 2014）。 Social psychologists are unlikely to be immune to such psychological processes. Indeed, ample evidence using multiple methods demonstrates that social psychologists do in fact act in discriminatory ways toward non-liberal colleagues and their research. 社会心理学家不太可能对这种心理过程免疫。事实上，基于多种方法的大量证据表明，社会心理学家确实以歧视方式对待他们的非自由派同事及其学术研究。 [Here we review experimental field research: if you change a research proposal so that its hypotheses sound conservative, but you leave the methods the same, then the manuscript is deemed less publishable, and is less likely to get IRB approval] [我们这里来回顾一下实验性的实地研究：如果改动一下你的研究计划，使其假设看起来像个保守派假设，但研究方法保持不变，那么这个稿子发表的可能性在人们眼里就会降低，得到伦理委员会认可的可能性也会降低] Inbar and Lammers (2012) found that most social psychologists who responded to their survey were willing to explicitly state that they would discriminate against conservatives. Their survey posed the question: “If two job candidates (with equal qualifications) were to apply for an opening in your department, and you knew that one was politically quite conservative, do you think you would be inclined to vote for the more liberal one?” Inbar和Lammers（2012）发现，绝大多数接受调查的社会心理学家都愿意明白无误地表明，他们会歧视保守派。他们在调查中提出这样一个问题：“两个求职者（条件相同）申请你所在院系的空缺，你要是知道其中一个政治上特别保守，你觉得你会倾向于投票赞成更自由派的那个吗？” Of the 237 liberals, only 42 (18%) chose the lowest scale point, “not at all.” In other words, 82% admitted that they would be at least a little bit prejudiced against a conservative candidate, and 43% chose the midpoint (“somewhat”) or above. In contrast, the majority of moderates (67%) and conservatives (83%) chose the lowest scale point (“not at all”)…. 在237个自由派中，仅有42个（即18%）选择了量表上的最低值，“绝不会”。换句话说，82%的人承认他们至少会对保守派求职者有一点点歧视，43%选择了中间值（“有些”）及以上。与此形成对比的是，多数温和派（67%）和保守派（83%）选择了最低值（“绝不”）…… Conservative graduate students and assistant professors are behaving rationally when they keep their political identities hidden, and when they avoid voicing the dissenting opinions that could be of such great benefit to the field. Moderate and libertarian students may be suffering the same fate. 当保守派研究生和助理教授隐瞒他们政治派别时，他们是在依理性行事，然而如果他们缄默不言，那却将是这个领域的巨大损失。温和派和自由意志主义的学生或许也正在遭受同一命运。

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6. Recommendations 6. 建议 [Please see the longer discussion of recommended steps on our “Solutions” page. In the BBS paper we offer a variety of specific recommendations for what can be done to ameliorate the problem. These are divided into three sections] [建议措施的更长讨论，见我们的“方案”页面。在发表于《行为与脑科学》的文章中，我们提供了多种具体可行建议，以改进这一问题。建议分为三部分] 6.1. Organizational responses 6.1. 组织方面的回应 [We looked at the list of policy steps that the American Psychological Association recommended for itself to improve diversity with regard to race, gender, and sexual orientation. Many of them work well for increasing political diversity, e.g.,:] [我们查看了美国心理学会为增加自身的种族、性别和性取向多元性而建议的系列政策措施。其中许多同样可以有效的增加政治多元性，如……]

• Formulate and adopt an anti-discrimination policy resolution.
• 制定并采纳一项反歧视政策决议。
• Implement a “climate study” regarding members’ experiences, comfort/discomfort, and positive/negative attitudes/opinions/policies affecting or about members of politically diverse groups.
• 实施一项“气氛研究”，研究对象是其成员的经历，包括舒适的/不适的，以及他们持有的、会影响政治多样化的不同团体（或与他们有关）的积极/消极的态度/观点/政策
• Each organization should develop strategies to encourage and support research training programs and research conferences to attract, retain, and graduate conservative and other non-liberal doctoral students and early career professionals.
• 每一个组织都应该形成各种策略，鼓励和支持研究训练项目和研究会议去吸引、留住或毕业送走保守派及其他非自由派博士研究生和新入行的业内人士。

6.2. Professorial responses 6.2. 教授方面的回应 There are many steps that social psychologists who are also college professors can take to encourage non-liberal students to join the field, or to “come out of the closet”: 1) Raise consciousness [acknowledge publicly that we have problem]; 2) Welcome feedback from non-liberals. 3) Expand diversity statements. [i.e., add “political diversity” to any list of kinds of diversity being encouraged]. 同时身为大学教授的社会心理学家，可以采用多个措施来鼓励非自由派学生加入这个领域，或者“出柜”：1）提高意识[公开承认我们有问题]；2）欢迎非自由派的反馈。3）扩充有关多元性的声明。[即在任何形式的多元性鼓励列表中加入“政治多元性”]。 6.3. Changes to research practices 6.3. 改变研究做法 1.Be alert to double standards. 2. Support adversarial collaborations.  3. Improve research norms to increase the degree to which a research field becomes self-correcting. 1.警惕双重标准。2. 支持对抗性合作。3. 改进研究规范，以增加研究领域趋向自我纠正的程度。

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7. Conclusion 7. 结论 Others have sounded this alarm before (e.g., MacCoun, 1998; Redding, 2001; Tetlock, 1994)… No changes were made in response to the previous alarms, but we believe that this time may be different. Social psychologists are in deep and productive discussions about how to address multiple threats to the integrity of their research and publication process. This may be a golden opportunity for the field to take seriously the threats caused by political homogeneity. 早已有人敲响过这一警钟（如MacCoun, 1998; Redding, 2001; Tetlock, 1994）……对于之前的警钟却无人回应，不过我们相信这次可能有点不同。关于如何应对他们的研究和出版程序之健全性所面临的诸多威胁的问题，社会心理学家目前正在进行深入且卓有成效的讨论。现在也许就是严肃对待政治同质化所导致危机的黄金时期。 We have focused on social (and personality) psychology, but the problems we describe occur in other areas of psychology (Redding, 2001), as well as in other social sciences (Gross, 2013; Redding, 2013). 我们的焦点是社会（及人格）心理学，但我们所描述的问题也发生于心理学的其它领域（Redding, 2001），以及其它社会科学领域（Gross, 2013; Redding, 2013）。 Fortunately, psychology is uniquely well-prepared to rise to the challenge. The five core values of APA include “continual pursuit of excellence; knowledge and its application based upon methods of science; outstanding service to its members and to society; social justice, diversity and inclusion; ethical action in all that we do.” (APA, 2009). 幸运地是，心理学是唯一有准备来应对之个挑战的领域。美国心理学会的五大核心价值包括“不断追求卓越；基于科学方法的知识及其应用；对成员和社会的出色服务；社会正义、多元性和包容性；一切行动遵守伦理规范。”（APA, 2009）。 If discrimination against non-liberals exists at even half the level described in section 4 of this paper, and if this discrimination damages the quality of some psychological research, then all five core values are being betrayed. 如果针对非自由派的歧视存在，哪怕只达到本文第四部分所描述的一半水平，且如果这种歧视损害了某些心理学研究的质量，那就和五大核心价值背道而驰了。 Will psychologists tolerate and defend the status quo, or will psychology make the changes needed to realize its values and improve its science? Social psychology can and should lead the way. 心理学家会容忍并捍卫现状？还是心理学会作出必要改变，实现自己所珍视的价值，改进这一科学？社会心理学能够且应该带个好头。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Why Aren’t America’s Shipping Ports Automated? 美国的航运港口为何没有实现自动化？ 作者：Flexport @ 2015-9-30 译者：Veidt（@Veidt) 校对：小聂（@PuppetMaster） 来源：Priceonomics，http://priceonomics.com/why-arent-americas-shipping-ports-automated/ The massive cranes that sit at the Port of Oakland are veritable money-printing machines. 那些坐落在加州奥克兰港的巨型起重机都称得上是名副其实的印钞机。 As ships coming from Asia dock in the San Francisco Bay, these industrial behemoths quickly usher goods-bearing containers off the deck and onto land. Modern container ships are filled with thousands of containers. At peak efficiency, a single crane can remove about 40 of these per hour — and for each one they unload, companies moving containerized cargo are charged a terminal handling fee of around $300. 随着来自亚洲的船只驶入旧金山湾，这些巨型工业设备迅速开始将装满货物的集装箱从货轮的甲板上卸到岸上。现代的集装箱货轮中装载着数以千计的集装箱。在最高工作效率之下，一台起重机每小时能从船上卸下大约40个集装箱——对于它卸下的每个集装箱，运送集装箱货物的公司需要向港口交纳大约300美元的码头作业费。 But in many ways, the Port of Oakland, and most American ports in general, are some of the most technologically antiquated in the world. While many high-wage, developed countries have embraced and integrated automation in the process of moving shipping containers, Oakland has shied away from more technologically advanced solutions. 但是在许多方面，奥克兰港以及美国的大多数港口实际上都排在世界上技术最陈旧的港口之列。当许多高工资的发达国家热情拥抱自动化技术，并将其整合到装卸货运集装箱的流程中时，奥克兰港却回避了那些技术上更先进的解决方案。 A port terminal recently opened in Rotterdam, in the Netherlands tells a different story: almost every part of the process of unloading containers is handled by software, and office workers remotely control the cranes over their computers. Some have called the operation the world’s most advanced container-ship terminal. 最近在荷兰鹿特丹开放的一个港口码头则讲述了一个完全不同的故事：在卸载集装箱的流程中，几乎所有的部分都是由计算机软件操作完成的，坐在办公室里的工人通过他们的电脑远程操纵起重机。有人称其为世界上最先进的集装箱船码头。 Comparing the ports of Oakland and Rotterdam shows just how far American ports are lagging when it comes to automation. 对奥克兰港和鹿特丹港的比较，清楚地显示出美国港口在自动化方面已经落下了多远的距离。 How Does a Container Port Work? 一个集装箱港口是如何运作的？ As many great articles and a highly-influential book have argued, containers are one of the great inventions of the modern world. In the shipping world, a “container” is defined as a standardized 20, 40 or 45 foot long steel receptacle that houses any variety of goods. 正如许多杰出文章和一部非常有影响力的著作【编注：指Marc Levinson的The Box，中译本《集装箱改变世界》】所认为的那样，集装箱属于现代世界的诸多伟大发明之一。在航运界，集装箱被定义为一个长20，40或45英尺的标准化钢制容器，它能够装载任何类型的货物。 These containers are a global ISO standard and work on essentially any ship, truck, or railcar that is fitted for them. This standardization, of course, alleviates concerns over how to pack a ship, what’s on it, whether the goods will be stolen at the dock, or whether it fit on a certain truck or train. Containers let you treat the physical atoms of the world almost like computerized bits. 这些集装箱都符合一个国际通用的ISO标准，并且能够与几乎所有针对它调整过的轮船，卡车或是有轨列车配合工作。这种标准化工作显然缓解了人们对于诸如该怎样装满一艘货船，船上都装了些什么，停放在港口的货物是否会被偷走，或者货物能否被装进一辆特定的卡车或列车这类问题的担忧。集装箱为你提供了一种像对待计算机中的比特位一样来对待真实世界中物理原子的方式。 The development of containers revolutionized trading among nations. Within 5 years of “containerization,” posits one estimate, trade among nations increased 320%; within 20 years, trade increased by 790%. In 1965, before containerization, a crew could move 1.7 tons of goods per hour. After containerization, a crew could move 30 tons per hour — a 17.6x increase in productivity. 集装箱的发展为国家间贸易带来了一场革命。根据一项估计，在集装箱化开始的5年内，世界各国间的贸易量增长了320%；在20年内，增长了790%。在集装箱化开始前的1965年，一名工人每小时能够搬运1.7吨货物。而在集装箱化之后，一名工人每小时则能够搬运30吨货物——这意味着生产率提高了17.6倍。 Typically, containers arrive via specialized ships at designated ports that have the particular equipment for unloading and loading the cargo as well as loading it onto trucks that can bring the goods to their destinations. The ports, and the level of efficiency with which they can process goods, have profoundly affected the global economy. 通常，集装箱会由特制的集装箱船运往那些拥有装卸货物的特定设备的指定港口，然后被装上集装箱卡车，将货物运送到目的地。而港口，以及它们处理货物的效率水平，对全球经济有着深刻的影响。 From the perspective of a ship coming into a port with containers and in the simplest terms, there a[re] three critical pieces of technology: the “gantry cranes” that lift the containers from the ships, the transport vehicles that move the containers strategically around each port’s container yard to a designated delivery location, and the stacking cranes that pile up the containers so that trucks can come take them away. For exporters, who move containers from truck to ship, this process operates in reverse. 从一艘装载着集装箱驶入港口的货轮的角度来看，通俗地说，有三项关键技术影响着效率：从货轮上吊起集装箱的龙门起重机，负责按照特定策略将集装箱运往港内集装箱堆场中指定位置的运输车，还有负责堆放集装箱以让运输卡车能够将集装箱运出港口的堆垛起重机。而对于货物的出口商而言，由于他们需要将集装箱从卡车转运到货轮上，整个流程的顺序则是相反的。 The machinery of these three components (gantry cranes, transport vehicles, and stacking cranes) can be operated either by humans or software. In Oakland, like most of the United States, all three are operated by humans. But the reality is that software automation can not only make this process faster and safer, but available at a lower variable cost. 这三部分的机械装置（龙门起重机，运输车和堆垛起重机）既可人工操作，也可以由软件来操作。在奥克兰港，与美国的大多数港口一样，全部三个部分都是人工操作的。但事实是，软件自动化不仅能让这些流程更加安全快速，而且可变成本也更低。 While the process of automation hasn’t yet started in the Port of Oakland, Rotterdam began implementing port automation back in the 1990s. After investing hundreds of millions of dollars, Rotterdam’s port boasts an operation in which all stacking cranes that pile up the containers and transport vehicles are run by software. 奥克兰港直到今天还没有开启港口自动化的进程，而鹿特丹港早在上世纪九十年代就已经开始实施港口的自动化运作了。在投入了数亿美元资金后，鹿特丹港骄傲地向人们展示了新的操作流程，在该流程中，所有负责堆放集装箱的堆垛起重机以及运输车辆都是由软件操控的。 This is a far cry from Oakland, where every transport vehicle has a driver and each stack crane has multiple operators working in pairs for a single shift as well as dockman and clerks to help coordinate and direct the operators and vehicle flow within the container yard. 而奥克兰港的情况则与此相去甚远，在奥克兰港，每辆运输车都有一名司机，而每台堆垛起重机在进行一次搬运时都需要多名操作员结对工作，此外还需要码头工人和一些记录员在集装箱堆场内帮助协调引导操作员和运输车流。 The most difficult part of the port to automate is the gantry crane, which plucks the container from the ship—partly due to the extreme potential danger involved. At most ports, before a container can be removed from a ship, a human must unlock the lower container lock; in a fully-automated system, there exists the omnipresent risk that a completely robotic gantry crane might not notice the human who unlocked the container. 在整个港口机械中最难自动化的部分是龙门起重机，它负责从货船上吊起集装箱——之所以难以自动化，其中的部分原因是这种操作中蕴含着极大的潜在危险。在大多数的港口，集装箱在能够被从货船上吊走之前，一名操作员必须人工解开集装箱下端的锁；而在一个全自动化的系统中则存在一种无处不在的风险，就是一个完全自动化的龙门起重机可能不会注意到负责人工将集装箱解锁的那名操作员。 However, many vessels have started to convert towards automatic locking and unlocking equipment that eliminates the need for a person to climb amongst the stacks of containers on a vessel and unlock containers before they are unloaded. In an automated system, humans would only need to interact with the equipment in this setting if there was a malfunction with the locking mechanism and bringing attention to a safety stoppage until the malfunction is addressed. Ultimately, this lends further support to the safety benefits to increased levels of automation. 然而，很多货船已经开始转向自动化的集装箱锁定和解锁设备，以消除对那些需要在船上成堆的集装箱中攀爬并在集装箱被卸载之前为其解锁的操作员的需求。在一个自动化的系统中，人们只需要在锁定机制发生故障时与这套设置中的设备进行交互，请求系统关注并启动安全停工机制，直到故障被排除。最终，这种机制通过带来更多的安全收益为更高水平的自动化赢得了更多的支持。 In Oakland, teams of humans operate on-site gantry cranes. In the newest terminal at Rotterdam, however, a single person who operates this crane sits in an office and controls the machine from his or her computer. A person is still operating the controls of the gantry crane, but that person now has software assisting him, making the job more comfortable, easier, and more productive. 在奥克兰港，龙门起重机是由一队队的工人操作的。而在鹿特丹港最新的码头，一台龙门起重机唯一的操作员坐在办公室里通过电脑来控制这台机器。龙门起重机仍然需要一个人来操控，但这名操作员现在有了软件的协助，这使得这项工作变得更轻松，更舒服，同时也更有效率。 At a build cost of over $535 million, the Rotterdam port is now considered the most advanced in the world, with all three major parts of the container moving process automated. In Rotterdam’s other terminals, almost every single transport vehicle and stacking crane are fully automated. 鹿特丹港新集装箱码头的建造成本超过了5.35亿美元，它被认为是目前世界上最先进的集装箱码头，流程中所有的三个主要部分全都已经自动化了。而在鹿特丹港的其它集装箱码头，几乎所有的运输车和堆垛起重机的运作也已经完全自动化了。 Contrasting Levels of Productivity 对比鲜明的生产率水平 It is difficult to make an apples to apples comparison of productivity between the two ports; due to the variables in the way in which they are structured, vessel size, vessel call schedules, shipping channel depth, gantry crane height and reach as well as limited public information for additional metrics. However, let’s take our best stab at figuring out just how much more efficient Rotterdam is than Oakland. 由于两个港口在建造方式，货轮大小，货轮调度时间表，航运通道的水深，龙门起重机的高度和范围以及其它一些难以从公开信息中获得的更多变量上存在的诸多不同，很难将奥克兰港和鹿特丹港的生产效率进行一一对应的同类比较。尽管如此，我们仍然可以尽量尝试着看看鹿特丹港究竟比奥克兰港要高效多少。 Rotterdam is the much larger port of the two, with 445 millions tons passing through it each year compared to just 47 million per year in Oakland. Much of this difference, however, is attributed to the fact that Rotterdam also accepts shipments of resources like oil that do not come in containers, whereas Oakland predominantly accepts containers. 鹿特丹港要比奥克兰港大得多，每年通过鹿特丹港运输的货物达到了4.45亿吨，相比之下，奥克兰港每年的货运量只有4700万吨。但这其中很大一部分差异要归因于鹿特丹港还接受诸如原油这类不使用集装箱来运输的资源，而奥克兰港则基本上只接受集装箱。 Instead of gauging volumes, let’s start by looking at how many containers pass through Rotterdam versus Oakland. The industry metric for number of containers is the "TEU”, or “twenty-foot equivalent unit”. In the 2014 shipping year, 12.3 million TEUs passed through Rotterdam, compared to 2.4 million in Oakland. Naturally, there are more berths for ships and cranes in Rotterdam, so that doesn’t necessarily mean Rotterdam is more productive (it could simply just be bigger). 先不看货运量，让我看看有多少集装箱分别通过鹿特丹港和奥克兰港进行运输。航运业内衡量集装箱数量的单位是TEU，也就是“二十英尺等量单位”。在2014航运年度，有1230万TEU的集装箱货运量通过鹿特丹港，而只有230万TEU的集装箱货运量通过奥克兰港。很自然地，因为鹿特丹港拥有更多的船舶泊位和起重机，这并不一定意味着鹿特丹港比奥克兰港的生产率更高（可能仅仅是因为鹿特丹港更大）。 Publicly available data tells us that there are 36 gantry cranes in Oakland versus 103 in Rotterdam (note: this is pre-automated terminal, which is only just getting started, but will add 26 more cranes). To get our best estimate of productivity, let’s take a look at how many TEUs are processed by each of those cranes in Rotterdam (where most of the process is automated), versus in Oakland: 可公开获得的数据告诉我们，奥克兰港拥有36台龙门起重机，而在鹿特丹港，这个数字是103（作者注：这个数字仅仅包括了还没有完全自动化的货运码头，而这仅仅是个开始，之后还将有26台起重机加入进来）。为了得到我们对于生产率的最优估计，让我们看看在鹿特丹港（那里大多数的流程都已经自动化了）和奥克兰港，一年内分别有多少TEU的集装箱货运量通过一台龙门起重机： By this (admittedly rough) calculation, cranes in Rotterdam are almost 80% more productive than in Oakland. 根据这项计算（必须承认它很粗略），鹿特丹港的起重机的效率要比奥克兰港高出接近80%。 Why Does Automation Make Things Faster? 为什么自动化能提高效率？ It should go without saying that automation makes ports operate faster, but the exact reasons for this are less obvious. 自动化能够让港口运转得更快这个结论似乎是无需多言的，但其中实际的原因却并不是那么显而易见。 First, and perhaps most importantly, high levels of automation make it easier to have multiple shifts per day and better utilize expensive capital assets (cranes, trucks, berths, etc). In Oakland, it’s extremely expensive to run a second shift to quickly unload a ship because it is necessary to pay employees overtime wages in order to do so. 首先，或许也是最重要的一点是，高水平的自动化让每天处理多个班次变得更加容易，而这意味着对那些昂贵的资本资产（起重机，卡车，泊位等）更加有效的利用。在奥克兰港，想要加一个班次以尽快将一整船货物卸载完毕是一件非常昂贵的事情，因为这么做需要向雇员们支付加班工资。 In Rotterdam, it’s much more the normal course of business to operate two or three shifts per 24 hour period, especially for container yard deliveries. All terminals in the Port of Oakland still run 1st, 2nd and 3rd shift operations as needed based on volume, it is just at much higher cost to both capital and human assets. 而在鹿特丹港，在24小时的周期内进行两班或三班倒则更像是一种常态化的运作，尤其是对于像集装箱堆场内的运输这样的任务而言。奥克兰港所有的货运码头仍然根据货运量的具体需求来加班，甚至是三班倒，而这对于资本和人力资产而言都会带来高得多的成本。 Human-operated and software-operated cranes, can, in theory, move containers at the same rate. However, humans get tired and distracted, and don’t consistently operate at peak performance. Software, on the other hand, operates at the same rate no matter what. Technology can also make workers’ jobs easier and safer, reducing workplace stress which can increase productivity in its own right. 理论上说，人工操纵的起重机和软件操纵的起重机应该能够以相同的速率搬运集装箱。但是，人会变得疲劳，注意力也容易被分散，因此不能一直维持峰值表现。而软件则能够在任何情况下都以相同的效率进行操作。技术还能够让工人们的工作变得更加轻松和安全，从而减轻工作压力，而这本身也能够让生产率得到提升。 Why the Lack of Automation in Oakland? 为何奥克兰港缺乏自动化运作？ A key reason that Oakland and the United States lag in terms of automation is that upgrading to automated systems is extremely expensive: new, fully automated terminals cost over half a billion dollars to implement. Nevertheless, one expert estimates that automation makes financial sense when a port is handling around one million TEUs per year. 奥克兰港和美国其它港口在自动化方面落后的一个核心原因是，升级到自动化系统的费用非常高昂：建造一个新的完全自动化的货运码头需要花费超过5亿美元。然而，一位专家估计，如果一个港口每年能够运送大约100万TEU的集装箱货运量，那么自动化便有其财务价值。 Oakland, currently handles more than twice that amount in total TEU, however none of the terminals in the Port individually service over a million TEU in volume. There are several terminals that are close and in the very near future could hit that tipping point for the return on the investment in automation technologies. 虽然奥克兰港目前以TEU计算的总货运量超过了这个数字的两倍，然而其中并没有任何一个货运码头每年独立承担的货运量超过100万TEU。有几个码头的货运量接近这个数字，并且可能在不远的将来达到自动化技术投资回报的临界点。 A second reason for the delay in adopting modern automation is the effect on union jobs. Some have estimated that if the Port of Oakland were to implement a modern level of automation, 40-50% of the jobs would be eliminated. 第二个使美国港口迟迟没有采用现代自动化技术的原因则是自动化技术对工会职位所产生的影响。一些人已经作出估计，如果奥克兰港达到了现代的自动化水平，那么40%到50%的职位将会消失。 All ports on the West Coast of the United States are organized under a single union, the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), which gives them a tremendously powerful collective bargaining position. A strike doesn’t just affect one port, but every single port on the West Coast. 美国西海岸的所有港口都被组织在同一家工会之下——国际码头和仓库工人工会（ILWU），这让他们处于一个强有力的集体谈判地位。一次罢工并不仅仅是影响一个港口，而是会影响到西海岸的每一个港口。 This union power was used to oppose the introduction of containers in the 1960s and, later, computerized systems for tracking cargo. In each case, however, the union eventually conceded the introduction of these technologies in exchange for higher wages for existing workers and buyouts for displaced ones. 这家工会的力量曾经在1960年代用来反对集装箱的引入，在之后还曾被用来反对引入用于跟踪货物的计算机系统。但每一次，工会最终都接受了这些技术的引入，以换取现有员工的更高工资以及那些被替代工人的买断费用。 As with previous disruptive technology ILWU will need to be compensated for any reduction in jobs. Today, the average member of the union in Oakland makes $147,000 per year in wages, with benefits equal to another $82,000 per year. Needless to say, providing buyouts to force retirement on these union workers, many of whom have dedicated their entire working lives to port operations, is not an appetizing prospect for the terminal operators. 和之前那些颠覆性技术一样，对于港口自动化技术，ILWU也将为任何因此被削减的职位要求补偿。目前，在奥克兰港工作的工会会员的平均工资是每年14.7万美元，此外他们还享受着每年等价于8.2万美元的福利。不用说，为这些工会工人的强制退休提供买断费用——他们中的很多人将自己的整个职业生涯都献给了港口工作——对于码头运营商们而言并不是一个看起来很有吸引力的选项。 Nevertheless, several mitigating factors may allow automation to proceed. For one, the job loss calculations largely assume that shipping volumes will not be affected by automation. However, as automation reduces the price of shipping, we should expect to more shipping, which will partially offset some of the job losses. 然而，一些正在缓和的因素可能会让自动化技术的引进变得可行。一方面，对于工作职位减少量的计算在很大程度上是假设货运量不会受到自动化技术的影响。但是自动化技术会降低航运的成本，我们可以预期这将带来更多的货运量，从而抵消一部分由它带来的职位削减。 More importantly, the returns on investment in port terminal automation are large enough that there should be room for a negotiated settlement that makes both the union and the terminal operators happy. 更重要的是，投资于港口货运码头的自动化技术所带来的回报足够大，这将为工会和港口运营商之间的谈判提供空间，以达成一个能让双方皆大欢喜的协议。 Port terminal automation is no different from any other form of technological disruption, which almost inevitably leads to displacement of some segments of the workforce. In the long run, however, technology ends up creating better jobs and expanded opportunities across broad spectrums of the economy. Managing the transition is hard, often requiring social safety nets from government, as well as concessions from those who stand to benefit from the new technology. 港口货运码头的自动化与其它任何形式的颠覆性技术相比并没有什么不同，它们几乎不可避免地会替代某些现有劳动力。但从长期来看，技术最终会在更广阔的经济民生中创造出更多更好的工作机会。管理由技术带来的转变是困难的，这通常需要政府的社会保障网络提供帮助，同时还需要那些新技术的受益者作出一些让步。 Given the march of “software eating the world,” it’s hard to imagine a future where American ports do not become more automated. Difficult as the transition toward port automation may be, shying away from the challenge means less trade among countries. Shipping technology advancements have shown themselves time and again to be capable of creating a more prosperous and interconnected world. 在“软件改变世界”的大潮之中，很难想象在未来美国的港口不会变得更加自动化。也许向港口自动化的转变过程会很艰难，但回避其中的挑战意味着国家间的贸易将因此减少。航运技术的进步已在过去一次次证明了它们有能力创造一个更加繁荣和更具连通性的世界。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Whose Fault is Baltimore？ 巴尔的摩骚乱谁之过？ 时间：＠ 2015-4-30 译者：Drunkplane（＠Drunkplane-zny） 校对：龟海海 来源：The Burning Platform，http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/04/30/whose-fault-is-baltimore/ I’ve seen the liberal lying MSM pondering how WE could allow the riots, looting, burning and lawlessness to happen, as if it is our collective fault. Obama stands before his teleprompter and pontificates about the need for us to end the poverty that supposedly led to Purge Night in Charm City. 我看到那些满嘴跑火车的自由派主流媒体成天思考我们（又被代表）怎么能容忍暴动、抢劫、纵火和无法无天，就好像这是整个城市的错。奥巴马站在他的提词器前武断地宣称消除贫困的必要，似乎这贫困将会导致“净化之夜”在这魅力之城上演。【译注：电影《净化》中，未来的美国变成了一个极权的警察国家。每年的3月21日晚7点到次日早7点被称作净化之夜，在此期间所有的暴力犯罪都是合法的。】 That term cracks me up. The city has so much charm, its football team once snuck out of town overnight and headed to Indianapolis. It has so much charm its baseball team was forced to play a game with no fans in the stands. 这情景让我反胃。这座城市是如此有魅力，它的橄榄球队曾半夜溜出城跑到印第安纳波利斯去；它如此有魅力，它的棒球队曾被迫在没有一个球迷的球场上打比赛。 I think most people can agree that Freddie Gray, a petty drug dealer, was killed in police custody for the crime of looking suspicious. The policemen who killed him deserve to go to jail for murder. As usual, the powers that be circled the wagons and intended to exonerate the hero first responders. 我想大部分人都会同意，Freddie Gray——一个小混混毒贩子——仅仅因为看起来可疑而被捕并在羁押期间遭到杀害。那些杀害他的警察理应为谋杀而坐牢。同往常一样，权贵们对此事会引起的风波早有准备，并且打算赦免那英雄的第一响应者【first responder，指突发状况时首先到场的警察、医护人员等。】。 The people of Baltimore had a right to be pissed. They had a right to protest. They didn’t have a right to burn businesses and cars. They didn’t have the right to riot, loot, and injure others. 巴尔的摩的人们有权感到愤怒，他们有权游行示威。但他们没有权利去焚烧商场和汽车，他们没权利暴乱、抢劫和伤害他人。 It is the police department created and controlled for decades by Democratic progressive politicians that has committed the atrocities against the people who have been electing these progressives year after year. Baltimore has a corrupt, reckless, out of control police department enabled by a crooked and incompetent Baltimore politicians. The rap sheet for Baltimore’s finest is long: 由民主党的进步派政客创建并控制了数十年的警察局屡屡犯下暴行，而人们年复一年地把这些进步派选上台。巴尔的摩有个腐败的、厚颜无耻的、失控的警察局，全靠一群腐败无能的政客得以运转。巴警察局干过的好事可不少：

• Police commissioner Ed Norris was sent to prison on corruption charges (2004)
• 2004年警察局长Ed Norris因为腐败而于锒铛入狱。
• Two detectives were sentenced to 454 years in prison for dealing drugs (2005)
• 2005年两位警探因为贩毒而被判刑454年。
• An officer was dismissed after being videotaped verbally abusing a 14-year-old and then failing to file a report on his use of force against the same teenager (2011)
• 2011年一位警官对一名14岁少年言语虐待并被拍摄下来，而后他无法书面解释为何对同一位少年使用武力，最终被解职。
• An officer was been fired for sexually abusing a minor (2014)
• 2014年，一位警官因为性虐待未成年人而被开除。
• The city paid a quarter-million-dollar settlement to a man police illegally arrested for the non-crime of recording them at work with his mobile phone.
• 巴市曾付过一笔25万美元的庭外和解费，只因警员们非法拘捕一位拿手机拍摄他们执法的男士。

The cries of racism and white oppression ring hollow. It’s a tired storyline. Facts are always inconvenient to race baiters with an agenda to extract more money from whites with a guilty conscience and the inability or unwillingness to speak the truth. Let’s examine some facts about good old Charm City, USA. 对种族主义和白人迫害的哭诉是空洞无力的，这也是陈词滥调了。对种族迫害论者而言，事实真相往往不合时宜，他们总是试图通过白人的负罪感、在说出真相上的无能或不情愿，来攫取更多的钱财。让我们来看看巴尔的摩这传说中的“魅力之城”都有哪些丰功伟绩吧。

• The fine citizens of this metropolis have not elected a Republican as mayor since 1963, before the War on Poverty began. That mayor’s 4 year term is the only interruption in Democrat rule since 1947. They have had Democrat control for 64 of the last 68 years, and sole control for the last 48 years straight.
• 自打1963年起，巴市的良民们就没有选出过哪怕一位共和党的市长，那时“向贫穷开战”还未开始【War on Poverty，指美国第三十六任总统林登·贝恩斯·约翰逊推行的一系列福利法案。】从1947年起，市长的4年任期限制就是民主党统治的仅有停顿。68年间，民主党主政了64年，过去的48年民主党更是大权独揽。
• Their mayor is black. Their previous mayor, Sheila Dixon, was black. She was convicted of embezzlement in 2010 and couldn’t finish her term. They had a white mayor (current Democratic Presidential hopeful Martin O’Malley) for eight years. The mayor before him was black.
• 他们的现任市长是黑人。他们的前任市长，Shiela Dixon,是黑人。她因为在2010年挪用公款而未能干满任期。他们曾有过一个干了八年的白人市长（如今民主党的热门总统竞选人Martin O’Malley）。在他之前，市长也是黑人。
• Their City Council consists of 15 members. All fifteen are Democrats. The Council President is black. Democrats have had control of legislation in Baltimore for the last 50 years. Every program, policy, initiative, or school curriculum that exists in Baltimore was enacted by liberal Democrats.
• 他们的市议会由15名成员组成，15人全是民主党。市议会的主席是黑人。过去50年，民主党控制了巴市的立法，巴尔的摩的每一个项目、政策、动议，甚至学校课程，都是由自由派民主党人制定颁布。
• The Police Commissioner is black. Approximately 50% of the police force is black.
• 警察局长是黑人。大约一半的警察也是黑人。
• The School Superintendent is black, along with the School Board. The district has an annual budget of $1.32 billion to teach 84,000 kids. The Baltimore school system ranks second among the nation’s 100 largest school districts in how much it spent per pupil at $15,700 per student. Only NYC spends more. Only two thirds of students graduate high school, despite this high level of spending.
• 校监是黑人，全体校董会也是黑人。学区每年拥有13.2亿美元预算作为84000个孩子的教育经费。在全美最大的100个学区中，巴尔的摩的教学系统花在每个学生身上的经费位列第二，平均每人高达15700美元，只有纽约市花得比这更多。尽管有如此高的花销，只有三分之二的学生从高中毕业。
• The average SAT scores of Baltimore City public school students are: 379 in Reading; 376 in Math; 381 in Writing. These are the scores of the best of the best in Baltimore schools who actually think they should get into college. The average scores in the country, which still suck, are around 500. Students with these scores have about a 15% chance of graduating college. This is the ROI you get after spending $188,000 per student over their 12 year academic career.
• 巴市公立学校学生的SAT成绩平均为：阅读379分，数学376分，作文381分。这还是那些自认应该进入大学的顶尖学生的分数。全国的平均分，虽然低但也有500左右。有着这成绩的学生有15%的机会从大学毕业。这就是在一个学生12年的学习生涯中花掉188000美元的投资回报率。
• The population of Baltimore is 623,000 and 63% are black. Median household income is $41,000, with 24% living below the poverty line. The home ownership rate is 48%. The percentage of college graduates is 27%.
• 巴市有623000人口，其中63%是黑人。每户人家的年平均收入是41000美元，24%的家庭生活在贫困线以下。48%的人拥有自己的房屋。只有27%的人是大学毕业生。
• The population was 950,000 in 1950, so it has fallen by 35% in the last 65 years. The population was 24% black in 1950. Decades of liberal Democrat policies drove most of the white population out of the city.
• 1950年的人口总数是950000，过去65年降低了35%。1950年黑人占人口总数的24%。数十年来民主党的政策将大多数白人赶出了这座城市。
• Baltimore’s violent crime rate is 370% higher than the U.S. rate. They have over 200 murders, 300 rapes, 3,600 robberies, 4,600 assaults, 7,800 burglaries, and 22,000 thefts per year. These are all 2 to 4 times the U.S. averages per 100,000 people.
• 巴市的暴力犯罪率是比全美水平高出3.7倍。这里一年发生200起命案、300起强奸案、3600起抢劫案、4600次人身伤害、7800起入室抢劫和22000起盗窃案。每一项都是全美每十万人平均犯案率的二至四倍。
• Over 35% of all Baltimore residents get food stamps. Over 85% of the kids get free breakfasts and lunches at school. More than 60% of Baltimore residents are receiving some form of government assistance.
• 超过35%的巴市居民领取食物救济券。超过85%的小孩在学校领取免费的早晨和午餐。全市超过60%的居民领取政府发放的某种救济。
• Baltimore’s welfare paradise is paid for by outrageously high taxes. It’s income tax rate of 3.2% is on top of the state rate of 4.75%. It’s property tax rate is more than double the other counties in Maryland. The sales tax rate is 6%. Corporations pay an income tax rate of 8.25%.
• 巴市的这种福利天堂是靠高得离谱的税收支撑的。个人所得税在州税率4.75%的基础上额外多收3.2%。。它的财产税比马里兰州其他郡的两倍还高。它的消费税为6%。公司要付的所得税为8.25%。
• The percentage of out of wedlock births to black women in Baltimore exceeds 72%. Baltimore and Detroit are the two cities with populations over 600,000 with the highest percentage of single parent households – 59% to 61%.
• 在巴市，黑人妇女婚外生育的比例高达72%。巴尔的摩和底特律都有超过60万的人口，它们的单亲家庭比例也是全美最高——分别为59%和61%。
• The reported unemployment rate for Baltimore is 8.2%, one of the highest in the country. In reality, 42% of the working age population is not working. Young black men between the ages of 20 and 24 have a reported unemployment rate of 37%. But in reality, it is north of 60%. The number of employees in 1990 totaled 475,000. Today they total 365,000, down 23%.
• 据报道，巴市的失业率为8.2%，为全国失业率最高的城市之一。事实上，42%的适龄人口都没有工作。20至24岁的黑人男性失业率据报道为37%，事实上远远不止60%。1990年，雇员的总数为475000，今天这个数字为365000，下降了23%。

It doesn’t take a village to raze, burn, and loot a village. It just takes 50 years of liberal economic and social policies. Of course the liberal media, liberal politicians, and liberal voters don’t think anyone should be blamed for the disaster that Baltimore and every other Democrat controlled urban shithole (Detroit, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Atlanta, Cleveland) have become over the last 50 years. 毁掉一个村子无须全村出力【编注：此处取典于一句非洲谚语“It takes a village to raise a child”，意思是为孩子成长提供文化环境的是整个社区，而非仅仅是个体家庭】，50年的自由派经济和社会政策足矣。当然，自由派媒体、政客和选民并不认为谁应该为过去50年巴尔的摩以及其他（底特律、费城、圣路易斯、亚特兰大、克利夫兰）民主党控制下的都市粪坑里所发生的灾难而受责难。 Community organizer Adam Jackson, living up to the standards of Organizer in Chief Obama, declared that in Baltimore “the Democrats and the Republicans have both failed.” At least progressive community organizers have a sense of humor. How can Republicans have failed if the mayors and City Council have been 100% Democrat since the mid 1960s? I wonder how many Republicans were among the youths burning, looting, and destroying the city this week. 社区组织者Adam Jackson倒是挺合奥巴马老大对组织者的口味，他宣称在巴尔的摩“民主党和共和党都是失败者”。至少这些人还挺幽默的，当巴尔的摩的市长和市议会从60年代中期开始便全是民主党人，共和党的失败倒是从何说起？我倒是想知道在这周的青年纵火、抢劫和破坏活动中有几个共和党参与。 No Republican, and definitely no conservative, is responsible for the poverty, crime, educational failure, and disintegration of this lesson in Democratic rule. Baltimore’s police department is the product of the progressive wing of the Democratic party, enabled by black identity politics. This is entirely a left-wing Democratic creation. They get all the credit for what Baltimore has become. The mayor of Baltimore is an incompetent bumbling fool. These corrupt, arrogant left wing boobs are incapable of running a school system, police department, or economy. 没有共和党，当然更没有保守主义，这便是贫穷、犯罪、教育失败和民主党秩序崩溃的原因。巴尔的摩警察局就是民主党进步派的造物，奉行的是黑人本位政策。这完全是左翼民主党人的杰作，巴尔的摩的今天全拜其所赐。巴尔的摩市长就是个无能蠢货。这些腐败的、自以为是左翼笨蛋根本无力让教育系统、警察局或是城市经济正常运转。 They know how to play race politics to get elected. They know how to increase taxes on the few remaining producers in order to redistribute it to their black voters. They know how to destroy businesses and jobs. They know how to create a welfare mindset among black people, enslaving them in poverty, dependency, and ignorance. Blacks have suffered the most from Democratic black rule. 他们知道怎么打好种族这张牌来当选。他们知道如何对仅存的几个企业征税，好把财富重新分配给他们的黑人选民。他们知道怎么毁掉商业和工作岗位。他们知道怎么让黑人对福利上瘾，用贫穷、依赖和无知去奴役他们。民主党的“黑人统治”给黑人带来的伤害恰恰最大。 These riots will result in less businesses, less jobs and less taxes for the city. Blacks will be hurt the most, but they will continue to vote for Democrats. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Believing liberal welfare policies will fix the problems created by liberal welfare policies is insane. Liberalism is a disease of the brain and has infected a vast swath of America, especially in urban enclaves across the land. 这些暴乱将让这座城市的商业、工作岗位和税收越来越少。黑人将最受伤，但他们还是会给民主党投票。疯狂的市民总是种下同样的因却期盼着不同的果。相信自由派的福利政策会解决自由派福利政策带来的问题，这就是疯狂。自由主义是一种观念疾病，并已经感染了一大帮美国人，尤其是那些在城市孤岛里的居民。 Baltimore and every other Democrat controlled urban enclave in America are destined for decline, destruction, and civic decay. Baltimore cannot be fixed by spending more money on welfare programs. The country has spent $22 trillion on anti-poverty programs since LBJ declared his war on poverty. 巴尔的摩和其他民主党控制下的城市孤岛注定会衰败、毁灭、民生凋敝。靠在福利项目上花更多钱救不了巴尔的摩。自林登·约翰逊总统宣布“向贫穷开战”以来，这个国家已经花了22万亿美元在消除贫困的项目上了。 They haven’t moved the dial on poverty one iota. They have created generations of dependent black people, trapped in urban ghettos like Baltimore. If you can’t educate children for $15,700 per year, then you won’t educate them any better for $18,000 per year. Liberals will never admit their policies, programs, and corrupt practices created this national disaster. 他们在贫穷问题上毫无建树。他们培养了一代代习惯于依赖的黑人，这些人便被困在像巴尔的摩这样的贫民窟里。如果你一年花15700美元教育不好一个小孩，那你一年花18000美元也无济于事。自由派不会承认他们的政策、项目和腐败的作风导致了这个全国性的灾难。 Liberal welfare policies have encouraged and rewarded out of wedlock births. The 72% black out of wedlock birth rate is the single biggest cause of Baltimore’s long-term decline. Children without fathers are destined to be uneducated, unemployed, and underachieving. Children raised by married working parents who provide good role models are not on the streets. They are studying. They are not looting, killing, robbing or having kids when they are teenagers. 此外，自由派的福利政策无疑鼓励了非婚生育。72%的非婚生育率是巴尔的摩长期衰败的最大缘由。没有父亲的孩子们注定无法受到良好教育、注定失业并一事无成。那些双亲都有工作且能为表率的孩子们是不会在街头游手好闲的——他们要学习。他们不会去抢、去杀，不会十几岁就为人父母。 There are no guarantees in life, but being stupid, lazy and ignorant guarantees a life of poverty. Liberal welfare policies pay these people to have more kids out of wedlock in order to maximize their welfare payments. There have now been three generations of black people entrapped by these demented welfare programs. 没有什么能担保你有一个好的生活，但愚蠢、懒惰和无知却保准让你的生活一贫如洗。自由派的福利政策付钱给这些人，好让他们非婚生育更多的孩子以获得最多的福利款。已有整整三代黑人被困在这些疯狂的福利项目之中。 There is no will among the recipients or distributors of race based welfare payments to change their policies or programs. Therefore, every time a white cop kills a black person or a white store owner kills a black thief in Baltimore or any urban ghetto, the potential for riots, looting, and burning of businesses will rear its ugly head. 福利款的接受者或是发放者都没有意愿去改变这些基于种族的福利政策或项目。因此，在巴尔的摩或其他某个城市贫民窟，每当一个白人警察杀死一个黑人或是一个白人店主杀死一个黑人小偷，骚乱、抢劫、纵火等丑恶行径便会抬头。 The only guarantee is the liberals running the urban ghetto will not accept blame for what they have wrought. Farewell to the America of personal responsibility, work ethic, marriage, family, and valuing education. 唯一确定的是，控制这些城市贫民窟的自由派是不会接受任何对他们所犯好事的批评的。向那个推崇个人责任、勤勉美德，赞美婚姻、家庭并珍视教育的美国道别吧！ The esteemed mayor of Baltimore Stephanie Rawlings-Blake (of course a liberal black woman must hyphenate her name) summed up the disease of liberalism after her peeps had destroyed their neighborhoods the night before: 我们尊敬的巴尔地摩市市长Stephanie Rawlings-Blake（哦，当然，一个自由派的黑人妇女的名字中自然会有连字符，以显示她已婚或来自少数族裔）在其同胞于昨晚破坏了他们的社区后，这样总结自由主义的病症：

“It’s a very delicate balancing act, because while we tried to make sure that they were protected from the cars and the other things that were going on, we also gave those who wished to destroy space to do that as well.” “（警方的行动）有一种微妙的平衡，因为当我们试图确保抗议者不被车流和其他来往的东西伤害的同时，也给了那些想要搞破坏的人以机会。”

You reap what you sow America. 你们曾在美国大地播撒下那些种子，如今正在收获它们结出的果实。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Family hut sharing: how Norway avoids cabin fever 家庭小屋分享：挪威如何避免度假小屋“热” ——如何分配度假别墅小木屋遗产的问题 作者：Simone Abram @ 2015-10-1 译者：Horace Rae(@Sheldon_rae) 校对：龟海海 来源：The Conversation，https://theconversation.com/family-hut-sharing-how-norway-avoids-cabin-fever-46640 Mountain cabins and seaside houses are part of the Scandinavian dream. Europeans are right to envy their Nordic compatriots, who can gather with family and friends at a simple house for hiking, skiing, mushrooming, or just relaxing in front of a magnificent landscape. 山间小屋和海景房是斯堪的纳维亚梦的一部分。欧洲人很有理由羡慕他们的北欧同胞——北欧人可以和家人朋友们在一间房子里团聚，出去远足、滑雪、采蘑菇，或者在壮美的风景前悠然沉醉。 About half of all Norwegians have access to a summer house of some kind. The first boom in cabin ownership was in the 1960s, when intrepid Norwegians hiked into the mountains to build themselves a little hideaway. Another boom in the 2000s saw increasingly sophisticated summer houses coming onto the market in many upland areas. 约一半挪威人能享受某种形式的夏日度假屋。第一次小屋抢购潮发生在1960年代，那时，无畏的挪威人跋涉进大山，给自己搭建一个小小的世外桃源。另一次风潮发生在2000年代，那时日益成熟精致的夏日度假屋开始进入高地区域的房产市场。 At this time of year, many Norwegians have already closed up their summer cabins and are back at work, perhaps already looking forward to autumn half-term holidays at the end of September. 每年这个时候【编注：本文发表于10月1日】，挪威人已经锁上了夏日度假屋回去工作了，他们或许已经在期待九月末的秋季假期了。 For some of them though, the future of their cabin might be a little less straightforward than organising a shared calendar. As the first generation of owners leave cabins to their descendants, they often face difficult decisions. 但是，对于他们中的某些人来说，其小木屋的前途可没有安排共同日程那么简单直接。当第一代小木屋的主人想把木屋留给继承人时，他们往往需要面对艰难的决定。 Obscure agreements 模棱两可的条款 The main principle of Norwegian inheritance law is “partible inheritance”. This means that at least two thirds of a couple’s goods are expected to be divided equally between their children. 挪威继承法的主要原则是“遗产分割继承”。这意味着一对夫妇至少三分之二的财产应该被子女平均分配。 When it comes to a family home, inheritors who are already homeowners most commonly sell the house and share the proceeds, but the same does not necessarily apply to a cabin. Cabins are much more likely to stay in the family and be shared in different ways 对于家庭房屋，已拥有住房的继承人们通常会把房子卖掉，分配所得，但是这种原则并不适用于度假小屋。度假小屋更可能被留下，并以不同的方式分享。 One way that cabins can be shared is to split the ownership equally between siblings. This appears straightforward in principle, but if this happens over two or three generations, there may be so many owners that it becomes impossible to manage. 分享小屋的办法之一是，将所有权在子女间均等分割。这看似是最直接的原则，但是如果接连两三代都发生这样的分割，由于共有产权的人太多，小屋将变得无法管理。 As shares in the cabin move through the different branches of the family, and are split between various siblings, people can end up with 3/72 or 18/60 of a cabin, making ownership complex. 当小屋的所有权在家族不同分支中流传并被不同子女继承时，人们可能最终拥有小屋继承权的3/72或18/60，这就使得所有权状况十分复杂。 A popular option is to give ownership of the cabin to one child (or inheritor) and grant user rights to the others. To avoid disputes, many people add a clause to their will so that the owning inheritor cannot sell the cabin without giving the others the option of buying it first. 常规处理办法是把小屋的所有权给予一名子女（或继承人），然后保证其他人（直系亲属）拥有使用的权利。为了避免争端，许多人会在遗嘱中添加一个条款，规定如果不给其他共有人优先购买权，屋主不能出售小屋。 However, things can get even more complicated. Until the Norwegian government recently abolished inheritance tax, many couples would arrange to sell their cabins to their offspring in advance, still retaining usage rights themselves for up to four weeks a year. 并且，事情还能变得更复杂。在挪威政府近期废除继承税法之前，许多夫妇都已打算提前向其子女出售小屋，并且保留他们自己每年使用小屋四个月的权利。 There were good tax reasons to do this, which have now disappeared, but there are still good moral reasons behind the practice. 从税务的角度看来，这种做法大有裨益，虽然现在税务问题已经消失，但这种做法仍有良好的道德理由。 Parents who want to ensure their children remain on good terms with each other once they are gone, might settle their inheritance well before they are likely to die. This way, if the children are unhappy with the settlement, they can be unhappy with their parents, rather than with each other. 想要让孩子们在他们死后依然保持良好关系的父母，可能在他们去世前很久就安排好自己的财产。这样，如果孩子们对财产的分割不满意，他们可以对父母生气，而不至于亲人反目。 Despite attempts to keep the peace, things do go awry. Summer houses on the coast have become particularly valuable properties, because of the restricted areas where they may be built (despite the long coast, there are limits to coastal building). 尽管父母尝试保持和平，事情依然会弄糟。海滨的夏季度假屋已经成为相当珍贵的财产，因为它们的建造区域有限制（虽然挪威的海岸线很长，但是对海岸小屋的建造也有限制）。 Inheritance tax often priced inheritors out of taking on a cabin that may have been built 40 years ago for next to nothing, but is now a multi-million pound property. That problem has now disappeared. 之前，令人咋舌的继承税经常使继承人们不得不放弃一间40年前建造的，孤零零的临海小屋，它此时已是价值数百万磅的财产。这一问题现已不复存在。 However, issues still exist and there are good reasons why Norwegians often talk about stress and sadness in relation to cabins. “Everyone has a cabin story,” I am often told. 然而，问题依然存在，挪威人仍有很多理由谈论与小屋有关的压力和哀伤。“人人都有一段与度假屋有关的故事”，常有人对我说。 For example, say three siblings inherit a cabin equally and one wants out of the share, that then leaves the other two with a major bill to buy he or she out. This can often cause tension within the whole family. 举个例子，有三兄妹平分了一间小屋的所有权，然后其中一人想要卖掉自己的所有权，这就使得另外两人不得不花一大笔钱买下他或她的所有权。这种事情经常在整个家族内制造紧张气氛。 Worldwide lessons 各国的经验 There are many “blended” families in Norway due to exceptionally high divorce and remarriage rates. However, this doesn’t necessarily make things more complicated, as inheritance can go to direct heirs rather than step-children. 因为居高不下的离婚率和再婚率，挪威有许多重组家庭。然而，这未必会让事情变得更为复杂，因为遗产可以直接传给亲生子女，而不是继子继女。 When marrying, couples can retain property in their personal ownership, not necessarily bringing everything into joint ownership with their new spouse. 在结婚时，夫妇双方可以各自保留自己的财产，而不和新配偶共同拥有所有财产。 For example, if “Britta” owns a cabin that her parents built, she does not have to leave it to her new husband’s children from his previous marriage. 举个例子，如果Britta拥有一间父母建造的小屋，她不必把这间房子留给新丈夫在之前的婚姻中所育子女。 These days, so many families have cabins that there may be several to pass on. Each child might get a different one, and any significant difference in value might be compensated through a cash settlement. 如今，很多家庭都拥有小屋，所以会有很多小屋被传承。每个孩子可能得到不同的一间，并且任何价值上的显著差异都可以通过现金弥补。 By default however, this can also reinforce the difference between “legal” siblings (including birth and adopted siblings) and step-siblings, often quite subconsciously. 但是在默认情况下，这也会强化“法律上的”兄弟姐妹（包括亲生子女和收养子女）以及非同一对父母所生的兄弟姐妹之间的差异，这往往是潜意识地发生的。 Sharing a cabin doesn’t only bring a family together in the holidays, but it can also define what relations the different family members have with each other. 分享一间小屋不仅仅让一个家庭在假期相聚，这也能定义家庭成员之间的亲疏。 Perhaps surprisingly then, given the heightened emotions associated with a family cabin, startlingly few inheritance disputes end up in court. 纵然挪威人都有很深的小屋情结，令人吃惊的是，只有很少的继承争端最终走上法庭。 The abolition of inheritance tax has been seen as a potential threat to the “Equal Society” that the Norwegian welfare state has produced. But whether these changes will have an effect on the method of shared ownership and use of holiday cabins, remains to be seen. 继承税的废除，被视作对挪威这个福利国家之前创造的“平等社会”的威胁。但是这些改变是否能影响使用和分享度假小屋的方式，还得拭目以待。 It is quite likely that Norwegian families will continue to create equality – at least within the family – through sharing-arrangements at cabins. Whether equality can survive beyond the family is a different question. 很可能，挪威家庭将会通过分享小屋的方式继续创造平等——至少是在家庭内部。这种“平等”是否能衍生到家庭以外，就是另外一个问题了。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Why Iranian migrants succeed in the US but fail in Sweden 为何伊朗移民成于美国却败于瑞典 作者：Nima Sanandaji @NimaSanandaji @ 2015-3-23 译者：Eartha（@王小贰_Eartha) 校对：小册子（@昵称被抢的小册子） 来源：CapX，http://www.capx.co/why-iranian-migrants-succeed-in-the-us-but-fail-in-sweden/ Maryam Mirzakhani was born in Iran in 1977. Showing an early gift for mathematics, she received a degree from Sharif University of Technology in Tehran. After moving to the US, Maryam earned her PhD from Harvard before becoming a young professor at Stanford. 玛利亚姆·米尔扎哈尼（Maryam Mirzakhani）于1977年出生在伊朗。她早早就显示出数学方面的天赋，并取得了位于德黑兰的谢里夫理工大学的学位。移居美国之后，玛利亚姆攻读了哈佛大学的博士学位，后成为斯坦福大学的一名年轻教授。 Last summer she was awarded the International Medal for Outstanding Discoveries in Mathematics. Maryam was the first women to win the medal, unofficially referred to as the “Nobel Prize of mathematics”. Since it was established in 1936, all previous winners have been male. 去年夏天，她成为史上第一位获得菲尔兹奖的女性，该奖有着“数学界诺贝尔奖”之称。自该奖项于1936年设立以来，所有获奖者均为男性。 The story of Maryam is not only one of an unusually talented individual. It is also in line with a wider social phenomenon, where upward-striving Iranians rely on a winning mix of eastern culture and western institutions. This success however, has been easier to reach in some western nations than others. 玛利亚姆的故事不仅仅只关于一个天赋异禀的个人，还反映了一个更普遍的社会现象——奋发向上的伊朗人成功将东方文化与西方体制融合。然而，这种成功在某些西方国家相对更容易实现一些。 In 2003, administrators at Stanford University’s Electrical Engineering Department were reportedly startled. The notoriously difficult entrance exam for PhD studies had been aced by a group of foreign students. 2003年时，据说斯坦福大学电气工程系的考官们很吃惊，因为一群外国学生在以艰难著称的博士学位入学考试取得了优异成绩。 It was no surprise that smart kids from Asia were on top. What was more unexpected is that the majority originated from one place – the same Sharif University where Maryam had studied. Stanford is not an isolated example. Iranian top students are doing well in the international Science Olympiads, and flourishing in foreign universities. 来自亚洲的聪明孩子名列前茅并不让人吃惊，可出人意料的是，这群学生中的大多数来自同一个地方——玛利亚姆曾就读的谢里夫理工大学。斯坦福并不是个例。伊朗的顶尖学生在国际科学奥林匹克竞赛中成绩出色，并在国外各个大学中表现优异。 This achievement wouldn’t be surprising if Iran was anything like Singapore, Korea or Taiwan. Pupils in the latter countries outperform the rest of the globe in mathematics, according to the survey Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study. Iranian pupils on the other hand have considerably lower scores than in developed countries such as the US or in Western Europe. 如果伊朗是像新加坡、韩国或者台湾那样的地方，那么这些成就就并不让人吃惊。根据一项名为“国际数学与科学研究的发展趋势”的系列调查，来自后面这些国家的学生在数学方面的表现优于全球其他地区。而伊朗学生的分数则明显低于美国与西欧等发达国家。 How can a country with poor school performance export so many talents? One explanation is that Iran has an elitist school system, where talents such as Maryam are identified early and sent to a few top high schools. 为何一个学校表现不佳的国家能输出如此多的天才？一种解释认为，伊朗有一套精英学校体制，该体制能及早发现像玛利亚姆这样的天才，并将其送往少数顶尖高中学习。 The country has a competitive higher education system and few opportunities for those who do not succeed. To make it in life, many young Iranians study hard in high school. The dream is often to venture abroad. Since the 1979 revolution Iran has been characterized by continuous brain‑drain. 这个国家的高等教育体制竞争十分激烈，为失败者提供的机会少之又少。为了获得成功，许多伊朗年轻人在高中阶段刻苦学习，通常梦想着去国外闯荡一番。1979革命之后，伊朗一直面临着持续的人才流失。 A couple of generations ago, it was quite uncommon for Iranians to leave their native land. During recent times however, an Iranian diaspora of around 4 to 5 million individuals have evolved abroad. One example is the Iranian community in the US. 几代人以前，伊朗人很少离开故土。但是，伊朗人的海外移民近年来已逐渐发展至四、五百万人的规模。美国的伊朗人群体就是其中一例。 According to the US census in 1990, 221 000 persons of Iranian ancestry were at the time residing in the country. Slightly less than a quarter were born in the US from Iranian parents. Almost half of the remainder had resided in the country for less than ten years. 根据美国1990年的人口普查，当时有221,000名伊朗血统的人居住在美国，其中近四分之一出生于美国，双亲都是伊朗人。其余的人中有近一半在美国居住未满十年。 Still, the group was thriving economically. The poverty level amongst Iranians was only marginally higher than the national average. In fact, the median house income of Iranians was 22 percent higher than the national average. One explanation is that some Iranians migrants had brought wealth with them. 然而，这个群体在经济上欣欣向荣。在美伊朗人的贫困率仅略高于全美平均水平。但事实上，他们的家庭收入中位数却比全美平均水平高出22%。有一种解释是一些伊朗移民将他们的财富也转移到了国外。 Likely more important is their stock of knowledge capital. Amongst Iranians over 25 years of age, fully 26 percent had graduate degree or higher. At the time, this was almost four times the US average. 但更重要的可能是他们自身的知识资本储备。25岁以上的伊朗人中，足足有26%的人获得了硕士以上学位。在那时，这几乎是美国平均水平的四倍。 According to the 2013 American Community Survey, the number of Iranians had grown to some 460 000 (the true population might be considerably higher, since many do not identify themselves as “Iranian” on the census). The median household income of Iranians was $64 752, compared to a national average of $52 250. 根据2013年的美国社区调查，在美伊朗人的数量已增长至460，000人左右（真实数据可能还会高很多，因为很多人在普查中没把自己当做“伊朗人”）。伊朗人的家庭收入中位数为64,752美元，而全美平均水平为52,250美元。 Adjusting for household size, the per capita income of Iranians was $43 334, far higher than the national average of $28 155. The share with bachelor’s degree or higher was 61.9 percent amongst Iranians, compared to 28.8 percent for the average American. 根据家庭规模对数据进行调整后，伊朗人的人均收入为43,334美元，远远高于全美人均收入28,155美元。伊朗人中拥有学士学位以上学历的人占61.9%，而美国平均水平为28.8%。 Culture plays a key part in the Iranian success story. To begin with, knowledge is treasured. This is apparent in the Persian language, where occupation-bound terms of address are common. Someone who is a doctor, a “mohandes” (engineer) or “vakil” (lawyer) is addressed as such. 文化在伊朗式成功故事中起到了关键作用。首先，知识受到重视。这在波斯语中就表现的十分明显。与职业相关的称呼非常普遍，医生、工程师或者律师就被人以职业相称。 Having a good degree is not merely a source of pride for the individual, but for the family as a whole. The culture prevalent amongst the Iranian diaspora also emphasizes individual achievement, wealth accumulation and business-ownership. 拥有高学历是个人乃至整个家庭骄傲的资本。伊朗移民群体中的主流文化还强调个人成就、财富积累和生意家业。 Iran itself still lacks the education system, market based economy and high levels of trust needed for these cultural attributed to bear fruit. Western countries as the US however do. By adapting to western society, Iranians also leave behind some cultural traits: such as low trust for strangers and old-fashioned gender roles. 伊朗国内仍旧缺乏使得这些文化因素能够结出果实的良好的教育体制、市场经济和高度信任感。但美国等西方国家就具备这些条件。在融入西方社会的过程中，伊朗人也摒弃了一些文化特质，诸如对陌生人的不信任感和传统的性别角色观念。 Mehdi Bozorgmehr and Daniel Douglas conclude that the children of Iranian immigrants in the US have a more balanced achievement across gender lines: “in terms of educational attainment and labor force participation, females have quickly closed the gap with their male counterparts.” Mehdi Bozorgmehr与Daniel Douglas（在两人合著的文章“Success(ion): Second-Generation Iranian Americans.”中）总结认为，美国伊朗移民后裔的成就在性别上更为平衡：“就教育程度与就业而言，女性正在快速缩小与男性竞争者的差距。” The success of Iranians in the US can to some degree be explained by the fact that some of the rich elite fled Iran to New York and Los Angeles. In this regard, Canada differs from the US. Over the period 1978 to 1990 Iranians mainly came as political refugees. Later arrivals include refugees, family immigrants as well as students. 伊朗的部分富有精英阶层逃往纽约与洛杉矶这一事实，可在某种程度上解释伊朗人在美国的成功。就此而言，加拿大的情形与美国不同。1978-1990年间，伊朗人主要以政治难民的身份进入加拿大。随后到来的人则包括难民、亲属移民与学生。 According to the 2006 census, some 121 000 individuals of Iranian origin were at the time residing in Canada. One in six was born in Canada, while the remainders were immigrants. Nearly 30 percent of the immigrants had arrived in Canada during the last five years. This explains why 34 percent of Iranians lived below the low-income cut off before tax in 2006, almost three times the national average. 根据2006年加拿大人口普查，大约有121,000名伊朗裔居住在加拿大，其中六分之一出生于加拿大，其余的则是移民，且近30%是在最近五年内来到加拿大。这解释了为何2006年有34%的伊朗人税前收入在低收入指标以下，这一比例几乎三倍于全国平均水平。 With time however, integration occurs in the Canadian economy. The same census shows that full year working Iranians had merely twelve percent lower median incomes than the average Canadian – a good outcome for a group with many recent arrivals. The situation is quite different in another snowy part of the world: the Nordics. 然而，随着时间推移，加拿大的经济逐渐呈融合之势。该份人口普查报告也同时表明，全年工作的伊朗人收入中位数仅比加拿大平均水平低12%——这对一个新来者众多的群体来说是个不错的结果。但在世界的另一片冰雪地带——北欧，情况却大不相同。 Sweden has received a large influx of migrants from Iran. Today, Iranian immigrants and their children make up nearly one percent of Sweden’s population. As in Canada, the group has a strong educational background. 瑞典已接收了一大批伊朗移民。现在，伊朗移民和他们的下一代已占瑞典人口1%左右。和在加拿大一样，瑞典伊朗移民群体有着优秀的教育背景。 A study has however shown that in 1999, around 15 years after the average Iranian migrated to Sweden, a large segment was still trapped in welfare dependency. Merely a third of Iranian households supported themselves mainly through work at this time. The households were either depending on public support or low incomes from work. 但一项研究表明，在1999年，移民至瑞典平均近15年后，相当一部分伊朗人仍旧仰仗福利救济为生。当时，仅有三分之一的伊朗家庭能通过工作自食其力。伊朗家庭不是依赖公共救济，就是靠着微薄的工资勉强度日。 Another study has calculated the income from work between 1993 and 2000 for those born in Iran. It is shown that this amounted only to 61 percent of the average work income of a native Swede. With time, the situation of Iranians in Sweden has improved. But amongst the first generation, many have not been given the opportunity to fulfill their potential. 另一项研究计算了出生于伊朗的瑞典人口在1993-2000年间的工作收入，其水平仅是瑞典本土人的61%。随着时间推移，伊朗人在瑞典的境况正渐渐变好。但是，在第一代移民中，很多人未能得到机会去发挥他们的潜能。 A similar situation exists in neighboring Norway. A study by Statistics Norway has found that Iranians in Norway have unusually high educational level compared to other immigrant groups. However, fully 41 percent of adult Iranians surveyed responded that they were unemployed and actively seeking work at some point during 2006 – well before the global financial crises. 相似的情况也存在于瑞典的邻国挪威。挪威统计局的一项研究表明，相比于挪威的其他移民群体，伊朗人有着不一般的高教育水平。但是，参与调查的伊朗成年人中有足足41%的人回应说他们在2006年曾处于失业状态，并积极寻找工作——彼时全球经济危机还远未来临。 It is no coincidence that the US and Canada offer greater opportunities for upward social mobility of Iranian migrants. The economic structures in Sweden and Norway – based on strict wage-setting, rigid labor laws, high taxes and generous benefits – makes it more difficult and less rewarding to enter the labor market. 美国和加拿大为伊朗移民提供了更多进入社会上层的机会，这并非巧合。瑞典和挪威的经济结构建立于严格的工资设定、严苛的劳工法律、高赋税和慷慨的社会福利之上，这使得进入劳动力市场变得困难，得到的回报也更少。 Interestingly enough, welfare‑entrapment has not fully eroded the Iranian success story. Most young Iranians in Sweden have grown up supported by welfare handout and/or low work incomes. Yet, no group is as keen on earning a higher education as young Iranians. 不过有趣的是，福利的诱惑并未就此完全打断伊朗人的成功故事。瑞典的大多数伊朗年轻人靠着社会救济或微薄工作收入长大，但没有一个群体像他们那样渴望接受高等教育。 A study has shown that 45 percent of native Swedes have started higher education at the age of 25. This is considerably higher than 37 percent amongst the average immigrants. Iranians are a clear outlier, since 60 percent have begun higher education at the same age. 一项研究显示，45%的瑞典本土人在25岁时已开始接受高等教育，比移民的平均水平37%要高出一截。但伊朗人明显是个异数，有60%的同龄人已开始接受高等教育。 Countries such as Sweden societies have created higher obstacles to labor market inclusion than the more free‑market based Anglo-Saxon societies. For immigrant groups such as Iranians, the effect is greater entrapment in social poverty through welfare-dependency. 相比于自由市场经济成分更多的盎格鲁-撒克逊社会，瑞典式国家为进入劳动市场设置了较高的门槛。这诱使包括伊朗人在内的移民群体因依赖社会福利而深陷社会性贫困。 At the same time, Sweden offers fully publicly supported education to their citizens. Some young Iranians remain in the socially marginalized class that their parents were trapped in. Many more have begun climbing the social ladder through primarily education, but also business ownership and hard work. 同时，瑞典又为其国民提供全公费教育。一些年轻伊朗人和他们的父辈一样，仍陷于社会边缘群体。但更多的人正依靠他们所受的教育、自身的商业成就和勤奋工作努力地沿着社会阶梯向上攀登。 The social reward for becoming a doctor, a “mohandes” or a “vakil” remains strong in the group. Young Iranians are still encouraged to make their parents proud by earning a higher degree or founding a successful business. In Sweden, as well as in Canada and the US, the intermarriage between eastern culture and western institutions creates a route to up-ward social mobility. 在这个群体中，成为医生、工程师或律师可获得高昂的社会奖励。年轻伊朗人仍在被鼓励着去获取高学历或成功创业以为其父母脸上增光。在瑞典，正如在加拿大和美国那样，东方文化与西方制度的混合作用为在社会向上流动提供了一条新路径。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

America’s first fisherman bagged Alaskan salmon 11,500 years ago 11500年前，阿拉斯加渔民的鲑鱼 作者：Zach Zorich @ 2015-9-21 译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 校对：龟海海 来源：AAAS，http://news.sciencemag.org/plants-animals/2015/09/america-s-first-fisherman-bagged-alaskan-salmon-11500-years-ago If you think most fish stinks after 3 days, try 11,500 years: That’s the age of salmon bones that archaeologists have uncovered at the Upward Sun River site, one of Alaska’s oldest human settlements. 如果你觉得大部分鱼放三天就会发臭，试试放11500年，考古学家在在向阳河遗址中发掘出的鲑鱼骨头就有这么古老，那里是阿拉斯加最早的人类聚居点之一。 They say the cooked bones provide the first clear evidence of salmon fishing among the earliest Americans, Paleoindians, who crossed from Siberia into Alaska over the Bering Land Bridge more than 13,000 years ago. 他们说，这些经过烹制的骨头首次明确证实了早期美洲人的鲑鱼捕捞活动；这些古印第安人于13000多年前跨过白令陆桥，由西伯利亚进入阿拉斯加。 The finding, published online today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, helps debunk the idea that America’s first fishermen relied primarily on big game for food. It also explains how they managed to survive in an ice age Arctic environment and adapt to life on a new continent. 这一发现已于今日【译注：9月21日】在线发表于《美国国家科学院院刊》，有助于驳倒认为美洲最早的渔民主要以大型猎物为捕食对象的观点。它也解释了这些人如何在冰河时期的北极世界中维持生存，并使自己适应一个全新大陆上的生活。 These days, salmon is a staple for native Alaskans, but evidence for the origins of salmon fishing has been hard to come by. Wood and rope fishing tools decompose quickly, as do salmon bones. And until recently, most researchers hadn’t been doing the kind of careful excavation necessary for discovering fragile fish skeletons. 目前，鲑鱼是阿拉斯加原住民的一种主食，不过有关鲑鱼捕捞起源的证据一直难以找到。木与绳制成的捕捞工具极易腐化，鲑鱼骨也是如此。并且，要发现易于破碎的鱼类骨骸，必须进行小心细致的发掘，而直至近期，大多数研究者都不曾做过此类发掘。 But building on recent work that suggests big-game hunting was just one part of a “broad-spectrum” strategy among America’s first people, researchers have begun searching for other remains. These include creatures like migratory waterfowl, small mammals, and salmon that would have been part of a more seasonally based diet. 但近期的研究提出，捕杀大型猎物可能只是早期美洲人“宽谱”策略【编注：指将较多种类的食物来源纳入食谱的取食策略，生物学的最优取食理论以一组条件因子来解释或推测动物在特定约束条件下如何选择最优食谱宽度，参见wikipadia词条：optimal foraging theory。】的一部分，有鉴于此，研究者近来已开始搜寻其它残骸。其中包括迁徙性的水禽，小型哺乳动物及鲑鱼等生物，它们都可能构成一个更为季节性的食谱的一部分。 Archaeological sites across the Bering Strait region—including Siberia—support this idea, says John Hoffecker, a University of Colorado, Boulder, archaeologist who specializes in the region. 科罗拉多大学波德分校专门研究这一区域的考古学家John Hoffecker说，遍及白令海峡地区——包括西伯利亚——的考古遗址为上述看法提供了依据。 But finding ancient salmon leftovers has been a challenge. “It’s difficult to capture ancient fishing because of the nature of fish bones—they’re small, fragile bones,” says Carrin Halffman, a biological anthropologist at the University of Alaska (UA), Fairbanks, and the lead author of the new study. And if archaeologists do turn up any fishy remains, she says, it’s hard to know just what kind of fish it was. 不过，寻找古代鲑鱼残留物一直是个挑战。“古代渔猎活动的发现之难源于鱼骨的特性——这种骨头小而脆”，阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校的生物人类学家Carrin Halffman如是说，她是上述研究的发起人。她还说，即便考古学家确实发现了一丁点鱼类残骸，也很难知道那到底是何种鱼类。 As the team tried to find out how the people at Upward Sun River used the resources of the nearby Tanana River, they carefully excavated parts of the site, sifting soil through fine-meshed screens. In the same fire pit where they found the buried remains of two infants, they discovered the salmon bones. 在尝试查明向阳河的人们如何利用附近的塔纳纳河资源时，这个团队小心地发掘了这一遗址的部分区域，用网眼细小的筛子翻检泥巴。在同一个火坑中，他们找到了两具婴儿遗骨，还发现了这些鲑鱼骨头。 Analyzing DNA in a piece of uncooked fish bone, Halffman and her team found that it was chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta), a hefty fish that weighs 5 to 10 kilograms and grows roughly 60 centimeters long. Thousands of chum salmon still swim up the Tanana River every summer to spawn, and the run remains a central cultural event for the indigenous Athabascan people who live there today. 通过对一份未经烹制的鱼骨进行DNA分析，Halffman及其团队发现它是大马哈鱼（学名Oncorhynchus keta），这是一种重达5-10公斤、长约60公分的大型鱼类。直至今日，每年夏天仍有成千上万大马哈鱼沿塔纳纳河溯游产卵，而且这种洄游至今仍是当地原住民阿萨巴斯卡人的一项核心文化活动。 But could the find be evidence for the beginnings of this annual ritual? It was possible that the salmon were not part of the annual saltwater-to-freshwater migration, but instead were freshwater fish that lived in the river their entire lives. To find out, Halffman analyzed carbon and nitrogen isotopes in the fish bones. Because different versions of the two elements—both with different weights—are found in varying concentrations in seawater and fresh water, that compositions is reflected in the fish bones. 但这一发现是否就是这种年度仪式的起源证据呢？另有一种可能性存在：鲑鱼过去并非每年定期从咸水洄游到淡水，而是终生存活于河流中的淡水鱼。为了查明这一点，Halffman分析了鱼骨中的碳、氮同位素。因为这两种元素的不同同位素——其重量各不相同——在海水和淡水中分别有着不同的富集度，而这一成分差异会体现在鱼骨中。 The bones that Halffman analyzed had higher ratios of heavier carbon and nitrogen isotopes, meaning the fish had lived in the ocean and must have been caught during a spawning run. “What we’re looking at is probably the beginnings of the utilization of salmon,” says Ben Potter, an archaeologist at UA Fairbanks, and a co-author of the study. 在Halffman所分析的鱼骨中，较重的碳、氮同位素占比更大，这意味着这些鱼曾经生活于海洋，必定是在产卵洄游时被人捕捞的。阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校的考古学家、本研究的共同作者Ben Potter说：“我们看到的可能是鲑鱼被人利用的开端。” The discovery boosts the view of Paleoindians as generalists who ate a variety of foods, Hoffecker says. “I don’t think it was possible for people to occupy these environments without this broad-based diet and without this kind of high-tech economy,” he says. Hoffecker说，这一发现为古印第安人是饮食种类繁多的多面手这一观点提供了支撑。“如果没有这种宽泛的食谱，没有这种高技术的经济，我不认为这些人有可能占领这样的自然环境”。 Herb Maschner, an Arctic archaeologist at the University of South Florida in Tampa, agrees and says the careful excavation methods and analysis serve as a good example of what archaeologists need to do to answer questions about ancient people living in central Alaska where the conditions for preserving bones and artifacts are “notoriously” bad. 坦帕市南佛罗里达大学的北极考古学家Herb Maschner对此表示赞同并说，骨头和人工制品在阿拉斯加中部地区的保存环境之恶劣“臭名昭著”，为了回答与生活于此地的古代人有关的问题，考古学家要怎么做？这种细心的发掘方法和分析为此树立了一个良好典范。 Potter and the other researchers are already busy answering other questions. Eventually, they say, the abundance of salmon and the ability to store fish allowed the indigenous people of the Pacific Northwest to settle in large permanent villages, a lifestyle that typically requires agriculture. Potter及其他研究者已经开始忙于回答其它问题。他们说，鲑鱼数量之丰富以及储存鱼类的能力，最终让太平洋西北地区的原住民得以定居于大型永久性村落，而这种生活方式通常要求农业的出现。 The team suspects that salmon fishing became more important over time as big game became scarcer in central Alaska, an idea they hope to test with further excavations. For now, little is known about salmon fishing in the period between 11,500 and 1000 years ago, but Upward Sun River gives the research team a start. Potter says: “You need that beginning to see how the end came about.” 该团队推测，随着阿拉斯加中部地区大型猎物日益稀少，鲑鱼捕捞的重要性可能也日益增加，团队并希望能通过进一步的发掘来验证这一想法。目前而言，人们对于从11500年前到1000年前这一时期的鲑鱼捕捞活动所知甚少，但向阳河给了这个研究团队一个起点。Potter说：“欲知晓终点如何而来，你需要这个开端。” （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

I love the Victorian era. So I decided to live in it. 我热爱维多利亚时代，所以决定生活于其中。 作者：Sarah A. Chrisman @ 2015-9-09 译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 校对：龟海海 来源：Vox，http://www.vox.com/2015/9/9/9275611/victorian-era-life My husband and I study history, specifically the late Victorian era of the 1880s and '90s. Our methods are quite different from those of academics. Everything in our daily life is connected to our period of study, from the technologies we use to the ways we interact with the world. 我丈夫和我都研究历史，具体说是维多利亚时代晚期，即1880至1890年代。我们跟学院派的方法极为不同。我们日常生活中的所有事物，从我们所用的技术到我们与世界沟通的方式，都跟我们所研究的时代有关联。 Five years ago we bought a house built in 1888 in Port Townsend, Washington State — a town that prides itself on being a Victorian seaport. When we moved in, there was an electric fridge in the kitchen: We sold that as soon as we could. Now we have a period-appropriate icebox that we stock with block ice. Every evening, and sometimes twice a day during summer, I empty the melt water from the drip tray beneath its base. 五年前，我们买了栋建于1888年的宅子，位于华盛顿州的汤森港——一座以曾为维多利亚时期海港自傲的城镇。当我们搬进去时，厨房里还有台电冰箱。我们立马把它给卖了。现在我们使用一个跟时代相吻合的冰盒，里面储藏冰块。每天傍晚，我都要清空冰盒底下滴水盘中的融水，如果是夏天，有可能每天要清两次。 Every morning I wind the mechanical clock in our parlor. Each day I write in my diary with an antique fountain pen that I fill with liquid ink using an eyedropper. My inkwell and the blotter I use to dry the ink on each page before I turn it are antiques from the 1890s; I buy my ink from a company founded in 1670. My sealing wax for personal letters comes from the same company, and my letter opener was made sometime in the late Victorian era from a taxidermied deer foot. 每天早上我要给客厅里的机械钟上发条。每天写日记，我用的都是一支古董自来水笔，并用点眼药水的滴管给它灌墨水。我的墨水池和我翻页之前用于吸干墨水的吸墨纸都是1890年代的古董；我从一家成立于1670年的公司购买墨水。我在私人信件上所用的封蜡也是同一家公司所产，开信刀则制造于维多利亚时代晚期的某个时候，原料是一只经标本剥制术处理的鹿脚。 There are no modern lightbulbs in our house. When Gabriel and I have company we use early electric lightbulbs, based on the first patents of Tesla and Edison. When it's just the two of us, we use oil lamps. When we started using period illumination every day, we were amazed by how much brighter the light is from antique oil lamps than from modern reproductions. 我们家没有现代灯泡。我和Gabriel之外另有客人在时，我们就用早期的白炽灯，这种灯还是基于特斯拉和爱迪生最早的专利。如果只有我们两个，我们就用油灯。当初，我们开始每天都使用时代照明时，我们都感到很惊讶，来自古董油灯的光线可比来自其现代复制品的亮得多。 Our heat comes from 19th-century gas heaters and from an antique kerosene space heater. In the winter we tuck hot water bottles into bed with us, and even the cotton covers that I sewed for those bottles are made from period-appropriate fabric (its designs are copies of fabric patterns from the late 19th century). 我们用19世纪的煤气炉和一个古董煤油小暖炉取暖。冬天，我们把热水瓶子塞到我们的被子里，连我为这些瓶子缝棉套子时所用的布料都与时代吻合（其设计复制自19世纪末的织物图案）。 Our bed itself is an antique from our period of study, and since it didn't have a mattress when we bought it, I sewed one by hand and stuffed it with feathers. 我们用的床本身就是我们所研究的那个时代的古董，而因为买来的时候没有床垫，我手缝了一个，里面填充的是羽毛。 I bake all our bread from scratch, using a sourdough culture I keep constantly bubbling in the back corner of our kitchen in a bowl that belonged to my grandmother. When I want whipped cream or an omelet, I use an antique rotary eggbeater; when we want to grind something, we have a Victorian food chopper as well as mortars and pestles. 烤面包时，我都是从最初的原料开始准备，要用到的酵种被我装在一个我祖母用过的碗里，放在厨房的墙角养着，不停冒泡。需要打奶油或者煎蛋饼时，我用的是一个古董旋转打蛋器；要研磨东西时，我们有维多利亚时代的食品搅拌机、研钵和研槌。 Whenever I'm inside my house I have an antique chatelaine hanging from my waist — a marvelous 19th-century accessory that combines elements that would remind a modern person of a charm bracelet, multi-tool, and organizer all in one. Mine usually holds a notebook, pincushion, and scissors, but I also have attachments for it ranging from a thimble holder to a matchbox, a coin box, or a pair of tweezers. 任何时候只要我呆在屋子里，腰上总是系着一根古董腰链——一种神奇的19世纪饰品，其组成元素可让现代人感觉它是漂亮手镯、多功能器具和整理器的多合一。我这根腰链通常挂着笔记本、针插和剪刀，不过也有其它坠物，从顶针夹到火柴盒、硬币盒或小镊子不等。 I bathe with a bowl and pitcher every morning, and for a nice long soak I use our cast-iron clawfoot bathtub. I wash my hair using Castile bar soap from a company established in 1839. (Shampooing with Castile soap is a piece of beauty advice I found in a Victorian magazine from about the time our house was built.) My hairbrush is a 130-year-old design, and my toothbrush has natural boar bristles. 我每天早上洗澡用的是盆和水罐，要泡个舒服的长澡时就用我们那个带铸铁爪足的浴缸。洗头发用的是卡斯提尔橄榄条皂，生产公司始建于1839年。（用卡斯提尔橄榄条皂洗发是我从一本维多利亚时期的杂志上得到的美容建议，这本杂志的发行大概与我们房子的建立同期）。我用的梳子是个已有130年历史的工艺品，牙刷则含有天然猪鬃。 Neither my husband nor I have ever had a cellphone; I've never even had a driver's license. On special outings when Gabriel and I go cycling together, I ride a copy of a high-wheel tricycle from the 1880s. Gabriel has three high-wheel bicycles, and he has ridden them hundreds of miles. 我和我丈夫都从没用过手机；我连驾照都没有拿过。某些特别的日子，我和Gabriel会一起骑车出游，我骑的是一辆仿自1880年代的高轮三轮车。Gabriel有三辆高轮双轮车，他已经骑了有好几百英里。 On our vacation just last week, we rode our high-wheel cycles more than 75 miles along a historic railroad route between abandoned silver mines. I kept thinking of an article we had read in an 1883 cycling magazine about wheelmen riding bikes just like Gabriel's when they took a trip out to a mine. 就在上周的假期，我们就曾沿着几个废弃银矿之间的一条历史铁路线骑行，用我们的高轮自行车跑了75英里多。那时我就一直在想我们从一本1883年的骑行杂志上读过的一篇文章，讲的正是骑行者们蹬着与Gabriel那部一样的自行车，去往一个矿地远游。

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The process didn't happen all at once.  It's not as though someone suddenly dropped us into a ready-furnished Victorian existence one day— that sort of thing only happens in fairy tales and Hollywood. We had to work hard for our dreams. The life we now enjoy came bit by bit, through gifts we gave each other. The greatest gift we give each other is mutual support in moving forward with our dreams. 这一转变并非一蹴而就。并不是说某人某天突然就将我们拉入了一个配备齐全的维多利亚式生活——这种事只会发生于童话故事或好莱坞中。我们得为我们的梦想辛苦奔忙。我们现在所享受的生活是通过我们送给彼此的礼物而一点一点得来的。我们所赠与彼此的最美好礼物就是伴着梦想相濡以沫的走下去。 Even before I met Gabriel, we both saw value in older ways of looking at the world. He had been homeschooled as a child, and he never espoused the strict segregation that now seems to exist between life and learning. As adults, we both wanted to learn more about a time that fascinated each of us. But it took mutual support to challenge society's dogmas of how we should live, how we should learn. We came into it gradually — and together. 早在我与Gabriel相识之前，我们就都已看到了老式世界观的价值所在。他小时候接受过家庭式教育，从不赞成生活与学习之间如今看似存在的那种严格分离。长大以后，我们都渴望更多地了解那个让我们都无比着迷的时代。但要挑战社会关于我们应该如何生活、应该如何学习的成见，这需要共同渡过。我们是逐渐——也是共同——步入这一点的。 It's hard to say who started it. I was the first to start wearing Victorian clothes, but Gabriel, who knew how I'd always admired Victorian ideals and aesthetics, gave them to me as presents, a way for both of us to research a culture we found fascinating. I was so intrigued by those clothes that I hand-sewed copies I could wear every day. 很难说我们之间是谁最先开始这么做的。其实是始于我穿维多利亚式的服装，不过Gabriel知道我素来崇尚维多利亚式的理念和审美，是他把那些服饰送给我作礼物的，这也是我们研究这种令我俩都着迷的文化的一种方式。我被这些衣物深深地迷住，以至于我手缝了许多件类似的，可以每日做伴。 Soon after, I gave Gabriel an antique suit of his own, but tailoring men's clothes is a separate skill set, and it took him a while to find a seamstress who could make Victorian men's clothing with the same painstaking attention to historic detail that I was putting into my own garments. 随后不久，我又送了Gabriel一套古董西装，不过缝制男士服装需要另一种技能，所以他花了段时间才找到一位女裁缝。这位裁缝能为他缝制维多利亚式的男装，并像我对待我的衣物一样，为其历史细节煞费苦心。 Wearing 19th-century clothes on a daily basis gave us insights into intimate life of the past, things so private and yet so commonplace they were never written down. Features of posture, movement, balance; things as subtle as the way my ankle-length skirts started to act like a cat's whiskers when I wore them every single day. 在日常生活中穿着19世纪的服装，为我们提供了有关过往私密生活的洞见，这类事物如此隐私却又如此日常，以至于从未被人书写过。姿势、动作与平衡的特征；一些无比微妙的事物，比如当我每天都穿着及踝长裙时，它们开始像猫须一样飘逸。 I became so accustomed to the presence and movements of my skirts, they started to send me little signals about my proximity to the objects around myself, and about the winds that rustled their fabric — even the faint wind caused by the passage of a person or animal close by. 对于裙子的存在和运动，我变得无比熟稔，以至于当我接近身边的事物时，当风与布面摩擦作响时——即便是临近的人或动物穿过时导致的那种微弱的风，它们都会给我传递小小的信号。 I never had to analyze these signals, and after a while I stopped even thinking about them much; they became a peripheral sense, a natural part of myself. Gabriel said watching me grow accustomed to Victorian clothes was like seeing me blossom into my true self. 我从不需要去分析这些信号，而且一段时间以后技艺已熟练于心；它们成为了一种外围感官，我自己的自然的一部分。Gabriel曾说，看着我逐渐适应维多利亚式衣服，就像是看到我那个绽放的真实自我。 When we realized how much we were learning just from the clothes, we started wondering what other everyday items could teach us. 当我们意识到仅仅从衣服上我们学到的就何其之多时，我们开始琢磨其它的日常用品能够教给我们什么。 When cheap modern things in our lives inevitably broke, we replaced them with sturdy historic equivalents instead of more disposable modern trash. Every birthday and anniversary became an excuse to hunt down physical artifacts from our favorite time period, which we could then study and use together. 当我们生活中便宜的现代物品不可避免地破损时，我们就代之以结实耐用的历史对应物，而不再用那种不能重复使用的现代垃圾。每个生日和纪念日都变成了搜罗我们最钟爱时代的人工制品的理由，然后它们就可以供我们一起研究和使用。 Everything escalated organically from there, and now our whole life revolves around this ongoing research project. No one pays us for it, but we take it more seriously than many people take their paying jobs. 一切都从那里开始有机的成长了起来，如今我们整个生活都围绕着这个持续进行的研究项目打转。没人为此向我们提供资金，但我们对待它，可比许多人对待他们的有偿工作更为严肃。

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The artifacts in our home represent what historians call "primary source materials," items directly from the period of study.  Anything can be a primary source, although the term usually refers to texts. The books and magazines the Victorians themselves wrote and read constitute the vast bulk of our reading materials — and since reading is our favorite pastime, they fill a large percentage of our days. 我们家中的人工制品代表的是历史学家所谓“一手材料”，都是直接来自所研究时代的物品。任何事物都可以是一手的，尽管这个词汇通常指涉文本。维多利亚时代的人们自身所写作和阅读的书籍和杂志构成了我们的阅读材料的主要部分——并且由于阅读是我们最爱的消遣，它们也占据了我们一天中的很大一部分时间。 There is a universe of difference between a book or magazine article about the Victorian era and one actually written in the period. Modern commentaries on the past can get appallingly like the game "telephone": One person misinterprets something, the next exaggerates it, a third twists it to serve an agenda, and so on. Going back to the original sources is the only way to learn the truth. 关于维多利亚时代的书籍或杂志，和写于这一时期的书籍或杂志，两者之间有着天壤之别。对于过往的现代评论有可能像“打电话”游戏一样令人吃惊：某人曲解了某事，另一人进一步夸大，第三个人出于某个目的对其加以扭曲，如此持续。回顾原始材料是了解真相的唯一办法。 We're devoted to getting our own insights and perspectives on the era, not just parroting stereotypes that "everyone knows." The late Victorian era was an incredibly dynamic time, with so many new and extraordinary inventions it seemed anything was possible. 我们矢志于获得我们自己对这一时代的见解和观点，而不是仅仅人云亦云“众所周知”的刻板印象。晚期维多利亚时代是个充满活力的时期，有许多全新而非凡的发明，看起来似乎无所不能。 Interacting with tangible items from that time helps us connect with and share that optimism. They help us understand the culture that created them — a culture that believed in engineering durable, beautiful items that could be repaired by their users. 与源于这一时期的实物接触，能帮助我们了解并分享这种乐观主义。它们有助于我们理解那一创造了它们的文化——一种对制造耐用、美观且能由使用者修理的物品存有信念的文化。 Constantly using them helps us comprehend their context.  Absorbing the lessons our artifacts teach us shapes our worldview. They are our teachers.  Seeing their beauty every day elevates and inspires us, as it did their original owners. 在不断使用它们的过程中，我们领悟其内涵。吸收由我们的物品教给我们的教训，也塑造了我们的世界观。它们是我们的老师。欣赏它们的美，也提升并鼓舞了我们，就像它们曾提升鼓舞了其最初的主人一样。 It's a life that keeps us far more in touch with the natural seasons, too. Much of modern technology has become a collection of magic black boxes: Push a button and light happens, push another button and heat happens, and so on. The systems that dominate people's lives have become so opaque that few Americans have even the foggiest notion what makes most of the items they touch every day work — and trying to repair them would nullify the warranty. 这也让我们能无比贴近天然的四季轮替。多数现代技术都已然变成了一堆魔法黑箱子：按这个按钮就有光，按另一个按钮就有热，如此等等。主导人们生活的种种系统已变得如此晦涩，以至极少有美国人对他们每天碰到的物品都是如何运作的具有哪怕是模糊的概念——试着去修理它们还会使质保单作废。 The resources that went into making those items are treated as nothing more than a price tag to grumble about when the bills come due. Very few people actually watch those resources decreasing as they use them. It's impossible to watch fuel disappearing when it's burned in a power plant hundreds of miles away, and convenient to forget there's a connection. 用于制造这些物品的资源，仅仅是被当做一个价签来对待，在账单到期时供人们抱怨几句。极少有人在使用这些资源时真的看到它们在减少。当燃料是在几百英里以外的发电站里烧掉的时候，我们不可能看到它们消失；自然而然也就忘记这之间存在关联了。 When we use resources through technology that has to be tended, we're far more careful about how we use them. To use our antique space heater in the winter, I have to fill its reservoir with kerosene and keep its wick and flame spreader clean; when we want to use it, I have to open and light it. It's not a burdensome process, but it's certainly a more mindful one than flicking a switch. 当我们通过那些需要照看的技术来使用资源时，我们对于如何使用它们会更加仔细。冬天里，要用我们那件古董小暖炉的时候，我得往它的储液器里添煤油，保持灯芯和扩焰器干净；要用它时，我得打开它，然后点燃。这并非一件繁琐的事，但它确实比弹开一个开关要更费心思一些。 Not everyone necessarily wants to live the same lifestyle we have chosen, of course. But anyone can benefit from choices that increase their awareness of their surroundings and the way things they use every day affect them. 当然，未必所有人都想要过和我们选择的这般生活方式。但任何人都可以从这样一种选择中受益：这些选择将让他们更清晰的意识到周遭事物以及他们每日所用之物如何影响着他们。 Watching the level of kerosene diminish in the reservoir heightens our awareness of how much we're using, and makes us ask ourselves what we truly need. Learning to use all these technologies gives us confidence to exist in the world on our own terms. 看着储液器里煤油油位的下降，会提高我们对自己用了多少煤油的意识，促使我们追问自己，我们的真实需求是什么。学着使用所有这些技术，能让我们依照自己的方式充满自信地存在于这个世界。

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And that, really, is the resource we find ourselves more and more in need of. My husband and I have slowly, gradually worked to base our lives around historical artifacts and ideals because — quite frankly — we love living this way. 而这，我们发现，确实是我们日益需要的东西。我丈夫和我已经慢慢地、逐步地将我们的生活建基于历史物品和历史理念之上，因为——坦率地说——我们忠爱这种生活方式。 People assume the hard part of our lifestyle comes from the life itself, but using Victorian items every day brings us great joy and fulfillment. The truly hard part is dealing with other people's reactions. 人们以为我们生活方式的难处会在于这种生活本身，但是每天使用维多利亚时代的物品给我们带来的是极大的愉悦和满足。然而真正的困难却在于应付别人对此的反应。 We live in a world that can be terribly hostile to difference of any sort. Societies are rife with bullies who attack nonconformists of any stripe. 我们所生活的世界，对于任何差异都可能极为敌视。社会上充斥着欺凌，攻击任何形式的不循常规者。 Gabriel's workout clothes were copied from the racing outfit of a Victorian cyclist, and when he goes swimming, his hand-knit wool swim trunks raise more than a few eyebrows — but this is just the least of the abuse we've taken. Gabriel的运动服是某位维多利亚骑行者所用竞赛服的复制品，而当他去游泳时，他的手织羊毛制泳裤所得到的可不止是一点点异样眼光——这还只是我们所受伤害中最轻微的一类。 We have been called "freaks," "bizarre," and an endless slew of far worse insults. We've received hate mail telling us to get out of town and repeating the word "kill ... kill ... kill." Every time I leave home I have to constantly be on guard against people who try to paw at and grope me. 我们曾被称为“变态”、“怪异”，以及无穷尽的一堆更为不堪的辱骂。我们还收到过恐吓信，让我们离开镇子，并重复写有“杀……杀……杀”这个词。每次出门，我都得时刻保持警惕，防止人们抓我或者摸我。 Dealing with all these things and not being ground down by them, not letting other people's hostile ignorance rob us of the joy we find in this life — that is the hard part. By comparison, wearing a Victorian corset is the easiest thing in the world. 应付所有这类事情，不被它们打翻，不让其他人充满敌意的无知剥夺我们在这种生活中找到的快乐——这才是难点。与之相比，穿件维多利亚式的紧身胸衣就是世上最容易的事了。 This is why more people don't follow their dreams: They know the world is a cruel place for anyone who doesn't fit into the dominant culture. Most people fear the bullies so much that they knuckle under simply to be left alone. In the process, they crush their own dreams. 这就是为什么更多的人没有追随自己的梦想：他们知道，对于任何不一致遵从主导文化的人来说，世界是个残忍的地方。多数人如此恐惧欺凌，以至于轻言放弃，以便免受干扰。在此过程中，他们碾碎了自己的梦想。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——