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出给哈佛医学院60位师生的一道题

据说只有18%的人答对:

If a test [to detect a disease whose prevalence is 1/1000] has a false positive rate of 5%, what is the chance that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease, assuming you kn(more...)

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据说只有18%的人答对:

If a test [to detect a disease whose prevalence is 1/1000] has a false positive rate of 5%, what is the chance that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease, assuming you know nothing about the person's symptoms or signs?

注:1)方括号是我加的,避免断句错误,2)false positive=假阳性。