出给哈佛医学院60位师生的一道题
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辉格 @ 2009-04-09 00:58  阅读(2,883)  评论   分类：时有所闻        

据说只有18%的人答对：

If a test [to detect a disease whose prevalence is 1/1000] has a false positive rate of 5%, what is the chance that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease, assuming you know nothing about the person’s symptoms or signs?

注：1）方括号是我加的，避免断句错误，2）false positive=假阳性。

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据说只有18%的人答对：

If a test [to detect a disease whose prevalence is 1/1000] has a false positive rate of 5%, what is the chance that a person found to have a positive result actually has the disease, assuming you know nothing about the person's symptoms or signs?

注：1）方括号是我加的，避免断句错误，2）false positive=假阳性。


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