‘We Hillbillies Have Got to Wake the Hell Up': Review of Hillbilly Elegy “我们这些山巴佬该醒醒了”——《山乡挽歌》书评 A family chronicle of the crackup of poor working-class white Americans. 一份贫穷糟糕美国白人工薪阶层的家庭编年史 作者:Ronald Bailey @ 2016-07-29 翻译:Drunkplane(@Drunkplane-zny) 校对:babyface_claire 来源:reason.com,http://reason.com/archives/2016/07/29/we-hillbillies-have-got-to-wake-the-hell 【编注：hillbilly和redneck、yankee、cracker一样，都是对美国某个有着鲜明文化特征的地方群体的蔑称，本文译作『山巴佬』】 Read this remarkable book: It is by turns tender and funny, bleak and depressing, and thanks to Mamaw, always wildly, wildly profane. An elegy is a lament for the dead, and with Hillbilly Elegy Vance mourns the demise of the mostly Scots-Irish working class from which he springs. I teared up more than once as I read this beautiful and painful memoir of his hillbilly family and their struggles to cope with the modern world. 阅读这本非凡之作的感受时而温柔有趣，时而沮丧压抑，而且，亏了他的祖母，还往往十分狂野，狂野地对神不敬。挽歌是对死人的悼念。Vance用《山乡挽歌》缅怀了苏格兰-爱尔兰裔工人阶级的衰亡，他自己便出身于此阶级。这本书描写了他的乡下家庭及其在现代社会中的挣扎，在阅读这本美丽而痛苦的回忆录时，我几度流泪。 Vance grew up poor with a semi-employed, drug-addicted mother who lived with a string of five or six husbands/boyfriends in the fading Rust Belt city of Middletown, Ohio. The only constants in his chaotic life were his grandparents, Mamaw and Papaw. Vance nearly failed out of high school but eventually graduated from Yale Law School. That personal journey is in the book, but Vance's main story is about the ongoing collapse of hillbilly culture as seen through the lens of his own family's disordered experiences. Vance在贫穷的环境中长大，他母亲半失业且吸毒成瘾，同她的五六个丈夫/男友生活在地处铁锈带、正在凋零中的俄亥俄州米德尔敦。他混乱糟糕的生活中唯一不变的是他的祖父母。Vance差点从高中退学，但最终还是从耶鲁法学院毕业。这段个人生活也被写进了书中，但书的主要情节是透过作者自己家庭颠沛流离的经历来描绘乡村文化的不断衰败。 Before going on, I should make a disclosure: Like Vance, I grew up as a hillbilly. Neither of my grandfathers could read nor write. My paternal grandparents, Mom and Daddy Bailey, left the Appalachian coal country of McDowell County, West Virginia, around 1950 and bought a dairy farm 80 miles away in Washington County, Virginia. I grew up on that farm. 在继续往下写之前，我要坦白：同Vance一样，我也是个山巴佬。我的爷爷外公都不会读写。我的爷爷、妈妈和爸爸Bailey在1950年左右离开了西弗吉尼亚州阿巴拉契亚山麓的煤城麦克道尔，在离弗吉尼亚州的华盛顿县80英里的地方买了处奶牛场。我便在那农场长大。 For most of my childhood, all six of my grandparents' adult children lived within 10 miles of the home place, as did my dozens of cousins. Every Sunday, a massive family midday "dinner"—somewhere around 40 to 50 people—convened at my grandparents' house. I left the farm at age 16, when my parents got divorced. I will spare you further details, but let's just say that the Baileys did not model their family life on the Waltons. Before I made my escape to the University of Virginia, I lived for a while with my mother and one of my sisters in a rented trailer. 在我童年的大部分时间，我祖父母的六个成年孩子都生活在离家10英里的范围内，我的表兄妹们自然也是如此。每个星期天中午，超级家宴——大约40到50个人——就会在我祖父母的家里上演。我16岁时离开那个农场，当时我父母离婚了。多的我就不讲了，我只告诉你，我们Bailey家后来在沃尔顿并没有继续那种家庭生活。在我逃到弗吉尼亚大学之前，我、妈妈和我的一个妹妹在一个租来的拖车里生活了一段时间。 HarperCollinsThough he mostly grew up in the Rust Belt, Vance identifies as a hillbilly—his family's roots are in the hollers of Breathitt County, Kentucky. Vance's Papaw and Mamaw, like tens of thousands of other mountain folk, left coal country in 1947 to find work and their shot at the American Dream in the booming steelworks 200 miles north. As a kid, Vance would accompany his grandparents as they traveled back nearly every weekend to visit with family in Kentucky. Middletown was Vance's "address," but the town of Jackson in Breathitt County where his great-grandmother Mamaw Blanton lived is his "home." 尽管Vance基本在铁锈带长大，但他自认为是个“山巴佬”——他家庭的根在肯塔基州布莱斯郡的溪谷中。Vance的爷爷奶奶，像成千上万其他山民一样，在1947年离开煤城到200英里以北的新兴钢铁企业寻找工作和实现美国梦的机会。小时候，每当他祖父母周末回到肯塔基，Vance总是陪伴他们左右。米德尔顿是Vance的“住址”，但他祖父母生活过的布莱斯郡的杰克逊才是他的“家”。 Today hillbilly culture is scarred by spectacular rates of joblessness, single motherhood, drug addiction, crime, and incarceration. Vance places most of the blame for this on the hillbillies' own shoulders. Globalization and automation decimated the manufacturing jobs that many low-skilled workers leveraged into a middle-class lives in the mid-20th century, he argues, but that's no excuse for fatalistic victimhood now. 今天的山巴佬文化被骇人的高失业率、单身母亲、毒品上瘾、犯罪和牢狱搞得遍体鳞伤。Vance认为责任主要在山巴佬自己。全球化和自动化削减了制造业的工作岗位，而20世纪中叶许多低技能的工人正是靠这些工作跻身中产阶级。但这并不能成为当下宿命论式的受害者情结的借口，Vance强调。 Throughout the book, Vance offers stories from family, friends, and neighbors that illustrate the growing cultural dysfunction among poor whites. For example, he takes a job at a floor tile warehouse for $13 an hour where one of his co-workers is a 19-year-old with a pregnant girlfriend. The warehouse owner gives the girlfriend a job as a receptionist. The 19-year-old and his girlfriend are warned about their increasingly frequent absences and tardiness, and eventually both were fired. The 19-year lashes out at the manager, saying, "How could you do this to me? Don't you know that I've got a pregnant girlfriend?" 通过这本书，Vance用自己家庭、朋友和邻居的故事向我们展示了贫穷白人中的文化失调。举个例子，他曾在一个地板瓷砖仓库工作，每小时13美元，他的一个同事是个19岁的小伙子，有个怀了孕的女友。仓库的主人给他同事的女友一份前台接待的工作。这个19岁的小伙子和他的女友因为越来越频繁的缺席和懈怠而被警告，并最终被解雇。小伙子对着经理大吼大叫，“你怎么能这样对我？你不知道我还有个怀孕的女友吗？” At another point, Vance meets an old acquaintance in a Middletown bar who tells him he recently quit his job because he was sick of waking up early. Later, the same guy was complaining on Facebook about the "Obama economy" and how it had affected his life. 还有一次，Vance在米德尔敦的一个酒吧碰见一位老熟人，那人告诉Vance，自己因为厌倦了早起而辞掉了工作。之后这个家伙又在Facebook上抱怨“奥巴马的经济政策”如何影响了他的生活。 Hillbilly culture is suspicious of outsiders and enforces a violent code of honor. Vance recalls that boys who got good grades in school were considered "sissies" or "faggots," an attitude that keeps people ill-educated and isolated. As their hopes for achieving the American Dream have faded, his hillbilly relatives, friends, and neighbors have come to see the institutions of society, government, and the economy as rigged against them. This has engendered a deep and debilitating pessimism among poor working-class whites. Hillbillies are killing themselves so effectively with drugs and alcohol that their life expectancies are actually falling. 山乡文化对外来者警惕怀疑并且极端强调荣誉。Vance回忆小时候在学校得了高分的男孩会被当成“娘炮”或“基佬”，这种态度让山巴佬无法受到良好教育并且被孤立。随着他们实现美国梦的机会逐渐消失，他的山巴佬亲戚、朋友和邻居逐渐认为社会体系、政府和经济都被操纵着跟他们作对。这在贫穷白人中催生了一股根深蒂固的、让人颓废的悲观情绪。山巴佬们用毒品和酒精毒害自己，他们的生活前景越发惨淡。 Does Vance offer any solutions for white working-class despondency and fatalism? "These problems were not created by government or corporations or anyone else. We created them, and only we can fix them," he argues. "We hillbillies have got to wake the hell up." He provides several examples of members of his extended family who have managed to leave poverty and family dysfunction behind. Tellingly, nearly all of them are women, got educations beyond high school, and married men who were not hillbillies. Vance是否为白人工薪阶级的悲观情节和宿命论提供了任何解决方案呢？“这些问题不是由政府或企业或任何人搞出来的。我们自己搞出了这些问题，只有我们自己能搞定它们，”他认为，“我们山巴佬们该清醒了。”他从他的亲戚中举了几个成功摆脱贫穷和家庭分崩离析命运的例子。值得一提的是，几乎所有人都是女性，在高中后继续接受教育并嫁给了不是山巴佬的男人。 "People sometimes ask whether I think there's anything we can do to 'solve' the problems of my community," Vance writes. "I know what they're looking for: a magical public policy solution or an innovative government program. But these problems of family, faith, and culture aren't like a Rubik's Cube, and I don't think that solutions (as most understand the term) really exist." “人们有时会问我是否觉得我们可以做些什么来‘解决’我们社区的问题，”Vance写道，“我知道他们想要什么：一个神奇的公共政策或一个创新的政府项目。但解决这些家庭、信仰、文化的问题不像玩魔方，我不认为存在什么通常意义上的解决方案。” Well, there is at least one "solution." Vance observes that all of his successful friends from Middletown did one other thing: They got the hell out of Middletown. They moved to where the jobs are. Just as Vance's hillbilly grandparents left the impoverished hollers of Kentucky to build middle-class lives in Middletown, today's urban hillbillies could get on the highway to opportunities elsewhere. In the meantime, the government should stop paying poor people to languish in Appalachian and Rustbelt poverty traps. 好吧，至少还是有个“药方”。Vance发现他所有来自米德尔敦的成功朋友都做了一件事：滚出米德尔敦。他们搬到有工作的地方。就像Vance的山巴佬祖父离开肯塔基毫无生气的溪谷并在米德尔敦过上中产生活一样，今天的城市山巴佬可以开车驶向高速公路，去别的地方找到机会。同时，政府应该停止向阿巴拉契亚和铁锈带陷入贫穷陷阱中的穷人发钱。 Vance calls himself a "cultural emigrant." By leaving his hillbilly culture behind, he has been able to create and enjoy a better life. I made much the same journey from Appalachian poverty to what has been a fascinating and fulfilling life. Vance clearly has some regrets about his cultural emigration; I have none. Vance称自己为“文化移民”。离开了山乡文化，他懂得了创造并过上了更好的生活。我走过相同的路，从我阿巴拉契亚的穷人生活中走出并过上了精彩充实的生活。Vance显然对自己的文化叛逃有几分悔意，而我没有。 Despite all their failings, Vance fiercely identifies with and loves his people. He is also a natural storyteller who makes compellingly personal the statistics and news stories about the cultural and economic coming apart of America. It hits close to home. 尽管山民在许多方面的失败，Vance仍视自己为其中一员并对他们怀着深厚感情。他天生会讲故事。关于美国在文化和经济上的分裂【编注：此处双关，Coming Apart是政治学家Charles Murray的一部著作】，在别处你会读到平淡的统计数字和新闻故事，但他能让你感同身受。这就是我们的家乡。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Why are we so afraid to leave children alone? 为什么我们害怕让孩子独处？ 作者:Pat Harriman & Heather Ashbach, UC Irvine @ 2016-08-23 译者:明珠(@老茄爱天一爱亨亨更爱楚楚) 校对:babyface_claire(@许你疯不许你傻) 来源:UC, http://universityofcalifornia.edu/news/why-are-we-so-afraid-leave-children-alone Leaving a child unattended is considered taboo in today’s intensive parenting atmosphere, despite evidence that American children are safer than ever. So why are parents denying their children the same freedom and independence that they themselves enjoyed as children? 在今天这种强化父母责任的社会氛围中，留下孩子无人照看被视为禁忌，虽然有证据表明美国孩子比以往任何时候都更安全。那么，为什么父母拒绝孩子拥有从前他们自己是孩子时享受的同样的自由和独立呢？ A new study by University of California, Irvine social scientists suggests that our fears of leaving children alone have become systematically exaggerated in recent decades – not because the practice has become more dangerous, but because it has become socially unacceptable. 加州大学尔湾分校社会学家们的一项新研究认为，近几十年，我们对单独留下孩子的恐惧被系统性地放大了——不是因为这种做法更危险，而是它对社会已变得不可接受。 “Without realizing it, we have consistently increased our estimates of the amount of danger facing children left alone in order to better justify or rationalize the moral disapproval we feel toward parents who violate this relatively new social norm,” said Ashley Thomas, cognitive sciences graduate student and lead author of the work, published online this month in the open-access journal Collabra. “我们没有意识到这一点，所以不断提高对孩子被留下独处时所面临危险的估值，并以此更好地为我们对违反这个相对较新的社会规范的家长所做出的道义谴责加以正当化或合理化，”Ashley Thomas说。他是一名认知科学研究生，也是本月在开放获取期刊COLLABRA上在线发表的相关研究的第一作者。 The survey-based study found that children whose parents left them alone on purpose – to go to work, help out a charity, relax or meet an illicit lover – were perceived to be in greater danger than those whose parents were involuntarily separated from them. 一项基于调查的研究结果发现，（人们对被单独留下的孩子所面临危险的评估，和父母离开的原因有关，）比起情非得已的离开，因自己有事而离开，比如上班、助阵慈善、放松或与非法情人幽会，人们感知到的危险更大。 The researchers presented survey participants with five different scenarios in which a child was left alone for less than an hour. Situations ranged from a 10-month-old who was left asleep for 15 minutes in a cool car parked in a gym’s underground garage to an 8-year-old reading a book alone at a coffee shop a block from home for 45-minutes. 研究者为被调查者提供了五种不同场景，每个场景里有一个孩子独处不超过1小时。情景从10个月的婴儿独自躺在停于体育馆地下车库的凉爽小汽车里熟睡15分钟，到8岁孩子独自在离家一个街区的咖啡店看书45分钟。 “Within a given scenario, the only thing that varied was the reason for the parent’s absence,” said Kyle Stanford, professor and chair of logic & philosophy of science. “These included an unintentional absence – caused by a fictitious accident in which the mother was hit by a car and briefly knocked unconscious – and four that were planned: leaving for work, volunteering for a charity, relaxing or meeting an illicit lover. After reading each scenario and the reason behind each child being left alone, the participants ranked on a scale of 1 to 10 how much estimated danger the child was in while the parent was gone, 10 being the most risk.” “在每个给定场景中，唯一变量是父母离开的原因，”逻辑学和科学哲学教授Kyle Stanford说。“这些场景包括一个不得已的离开，比如虚构一个事故导致母亲被车撞暂时昏迷，另外四个是有计划的：工作，到慈善机构志愿服务，放松和与非法情人见面。了解每个场景和孩子被单独留下的原因后，被调查者从1到10给父母不在期间孩子独处的危险性评分排序，10最危险。” Moral disapproval inflates estimate of risk 道义谴责放大了风险评估 Overall, survey participants saw all of these situations as quite dangerous for children: The average risk estimate was 6.99, and the most common ranking in all scenarios was 10. Despite identical descriptions of each set of circumstances in which children were alone, those left alone on purpose were estimated to be in greater danger than those whose parents left them alone unintentionally. 总体上，被调查者认为所有场景对孩子都相当危险：平均危险值是6.99，而在所有场景中最常见值是10。尽管孩子独处的每个场景描述相同，但父母有意离开留孩子独处的危险评估比无意留下他们的情况更大。 “In fact, children left alone on purpose are almost certainly safer than those left alone by accident, because parents can take steps to make the situation safer, like giving the child a phone or reviewing safety rules,” said Barbara Sarnecka, study co-author and associate professor of cognitive sciences. “The fact that people make the opposite judgment strongly suggests that they morally disapprove of parents who leave their children alone, and that disapproval inflates their estimate of the risk.” “其实，有意让孩子单独留家几乎肯定比因意外让孩子单独留家更安全，因为父母可以采取措施让情况变得更安全，比如给孩子一个电话或重申安全准则，”认知科学副教授和研究共同作者Barbara Sarnecka说。“人们坚定做出相反判断的事实表明，他们在道德上不赞成父母离开让孩子独处，这种谴责放大了对风险的评估。” This is also born out in participants’ view of children left alone by a parent meeting an illicit lover as being in significantly more danger than children left alone in precisely the same circumstances by a parent who leaves in order to work, volunteer for charity or just relax. 这也是为何在完全相同的环境背景下，受调查者认为家长约会非法情人而把儿童留家独处比起父母因工作、参加慈善志愿服务或放松而离开让儿童留家独处更危险。 In scenarios where participants were asked to judge not only how much danger the child was facing, but also whether the mother had done something morally wrong, researchers expected the perceived risk ranking to be lower. 当受调查者不仅被要求判断孩子面临多少危险，还要判断母亲是否有失德行为时，研究人员预计在这些场景下所感知的风险排名会降低。 “We thought giving people an alternative way to express their disapproval of the parent’s action would reduce the extent to which moral judgments influenced perceptions of risk,” Thomas said. “But just the opposite happened. When people gave an explicit judgment about the parent’s conduct, estimates of risk to the child were even more inflated by moral disapproval of the parent’s reason for leaving.” “我们认为，给人们一种不喜欢父母行为的替代表达方式，能减少影响感知风险的道德评判程度。”Thomas说。“然而事实正好相反。当人们对父母行为给出明确评判后，对孩子的风险估计会因对父母离开原因的道义谴责而更加被放大。” In fact, people’s risk estimates closely followed their judgments of whether mothers in the scenarios had done something morally wrong. Even parents who left children alone involuntarily were not held morally blameless, receiving an average “moral wrongness” judgment of 3.05 on a 10-point scale. 事实上，人们的风险评估与母亲在场景中是否做了失德的事的判断密切相关。在10分制评价里，即便不得已导致孩子单独在家的父母也并非被认为在道德上无可指责，他们也要接受平均3.05分的“失德”判断。 Fathers given more leeway than mothers 父亲的回旋余地比母亲更多 The authors found another interesting pattern when they replaced mothers in the stories with fathers: For fathers – but not mothers – a work-related absence was treated more like an involuntary absence. This difference could stem from the view that work is more obligatory and less of a voluntary choice for men. 作者把故事里的母亲替换成父亲时，发现另一个有趣的现象：对于父亲——而不是母亲——因为工作离开更容易被当作不得已的情况对待。这种差异源于一种观念，认为工作对男人而言更义不容辞，是更不得已的选择。 “Exaggerating the risks of allowing children some unsupervised time has significant costs besides the loss of children’s independence, freedom and opportunity to learn how to solve problems on their own,” Sarnecka said. “As people have adopted the idea that children must never be alone, parents increasingly face the possibility of arrest, charges of abuse or neglect, and even incarceration for allowing their children to play in parks, walk to school or wait in a car for a few minutes without them.” “除了在孩子的独立性、自由和学习自己解决问题的机会方面的损失之外，夸大给孩子些无人看管时间的风险，有很大的代价。”Sarnecka说。“当人们都认为孩子们绝对不能独处的时候，家长越来越多面临逮捕，被指控虐待或疏忽的可能性，甚至因为允许孩子在公园玩，步行到学校或独自在车里待几分钟而被监禁。” “At a minimum,” she continued, “these findings should caution those who make and enforce the law to distinguish evidence-based and rational assessments of risk to children from intuitive moral judgments about parents – and to avoid investing the latter with the force of law.” “至少，”她继续说，“这些发现应该提醒那些制定和执行法律的人，把依据证据与理性地评估孩子的风险从对家长的直觉道德评判中区分出来——并避免因为法律的力量而将判断权交给后者。” The study involved survey responses by 1,328 participants on Amazon Mechanical Turk ranging in age from 18 to 75, with a fairly even split of men and women and those with and without children. Females accounted for 52 percent of respondents, while 48 percent were male; and 56.43 percent had children, while 43.57 percent did not. More than 80 percent of the participants were white, and two-thirds had completed at least some college. 本研究在Amazon Mechanical Turk网站上调查了从18岁至75岁的1328人，男性与女性，有孩子与没孩子人的回答有相当差异甚至泾渭分明。受调查者中，女性占52％，男性48％；有孩子的占56.43％，没有的占43.57％。超过80％是白人，三分之二有大学文凭。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

【2017-01-23】 @winternight39:大伯，现在台海的局势顺着阿姨的预测在走，您还持有之前不会有战争的观点吗？ @whigzhou: 我的判断没变，不过我奉劝你们，千万别信我，一定要听阿姨的～ @whigzhou: 虽然我认为奥巴马的退缩主义和川普的孤立主义会将世界某些部分推入战争（或者将正在进行的小战变成大战），但我首先想到的是环库尔德地区，环黑海地区，还有东非，至于福尔摩沙海峡，五年十年内爆发战争可能性远不及朝鲜半岛。 ​​​​ @waayne: 面对川普三胖肯定要消停一段了，无赖一般面对能看到底线的人才会不停得瑟。川普这种锱铢必较的姿态，是想吓退他真正的目标，遇到真二愣子就没用了。 @whigzhou: 你对威慑的看法完全错误，好的威慑者不是动不动就发威胁，到处放狠话的人，而是难得威胁，但言出必行的人 @whigzhou: 以川普的轻佻做派，倒很适合替一个流氓小国玩边缘策略，建议金正恩请他去做发言人 @whigzhou: 像川普这样四处放狠话，又没有具体方案，也没有清晰底线，也不顾盟友是否配合，狠话很快会变成笑话 @whigzhou: 况且美国总统不是自己想打仗就能打的，国会不认可，你的狠话都不需要别人来试探挑衅就直接烂在自家锅里  

【2017-01-16】 听说不少人来澳洲五六年之后开始出现花粉过敏，为什么是五六年后而不是马上？我猜是因为空气太干净，免疫系统过度拉低了反应阈值，所以，墙内兄弟们，吸点雾霾也不是完全没好处～ ​​​​  

声望与权力 辉格 2016年12月24日 建立与维护自己的声望（[[prestige]]）是人类行为的一大动机，经济学家早已注意到，这一动机是许多消费行为背后的推动力，它构成了某些门类商品的主要甚至唯一的价值基础，而且看来有着牢固的心理基础和古老的渊源。 考古学家发现，用于此类目的的物品——被称为声望品（prestige goods）——在远古人类遗存中占了很大比例，是识别社会复杂程度的重要线索；对声望品的追逐也是推动早期手工业和贸易活动的主要动力，甚至像青铜器制造这样里程碑式的技术进步，最初也是由声望追逐者的需求所促成。 当然，拥有声望品更多的是对既已建立的声望的展示，而非声望本身，这一展示所传达的信息大约包括：我具备不俗的才智与鉴别力，据此取得了相当成就，过着一份体面生活，赢得了其他社会成员的尊重，建立了良好的社会关系，甚至不乏仰慕与追随者，我对他们慷慨大方，乐于出手相助，总之，我是一个有价值的交往对象。 高声望者不仅有着出色的个人禀赋，更重要的是（用社会学家的话说）拥有雄厚的社会资本（[[social capital]]），正是后者赋予他们在社会交往中的吸引力，也让他们愿意投入资源去经营和维护社会关系，因为首先，社交魅力本身对倾向于社会资本的投资策略构成一种比较优势，其次，社会资本是一种越用越多的东西：今天你动用关系资源帮助了我，我就成了你的互惠网络的一部分，日后你又可以利用这份新增资源办成其他事情。 假如你和很多人建立这样的关系，并且频繁动用这些关系帮助他人，从而成为所在社会的互惠网络的一个中心节点，便可为自己赢得巨大声望；在人类学家蒂莫西·厄尔（Timothy Earle）看来，如此建立的声望是早期社会政治权力的几大来源之一，也是推动社会从游团向部落继而向酋邦发展的关键组织元素；在诸如社区牧师这样的人物身上，我们至今仍可看到部落中凭借声望而取得权力的『大人物（big man）』的影子。 不过，和其他依赖网络效应（[[network effect]]）的东西一样，声望的建立也面临着启动障碍：经营社会关系的成本很高，需要经常设宴请客，需要大宅子招待客人，奢华体面的服饰、器具和摆设，频繁送礼，有时还要收留孤弱或供养门客，虽然社会资本最终会带来回报，但在突破盈亏平衡点之前，需要大量前期投入。 问题是，在高度均等化的简单社会中，谁有这样的资源呢？而且，在社会资本经历长久积累终于产生价值之前，谁愿意为这样不确定的远期回报作持续投入呢？所以在有些学者看来，基于声望的权力只有在社会地位已经发生相当程度的分化之后才可能出现，而不是最初引发社会分化的先行元素。 然而，人类学家约瑟夫·亨里克（[[Joseph Henrich]]）在其新书《人类的成功秘诀》（The Secret of Our Success）中却提出了不同看法，他认为，人类强烈的学习需求为声望建设提供了启动机制，因而声望在人类数百万年文化进化历程的早期便已开始起作用。 由于进化路径的特殊性，我们的绝大部分生活技能需要后天习得，而且与这些技能相关的知识多半是无法言传的know-how，需要在直接的观察、模仿和实践中学会，于是我们发展出了许多心理机制帮助我们高效学习，比如强烈的模仿倾向，领会他人意图从而更有效的模仿，以及挑选最佳模仿对象的能力。 在判断身边的人中谁最值得学习时，我们会利用多种线索：直接观察他运用某种技能时的表现，他以往取得的成就，以及能够证明这些成就的器物或信息；我们也会利用二阶线索：他的言行举止是否得到他人的关注？其见解和意见是否被众人听取？有多少人向他请教或求助？ 亨里克指出，即便是蹒跚学步的幼儿，也天生的对这些线索极为敏感，甚至年龄越小对二阶线索的反应越强烈，因为小孩尚缺乏直接评判技能高下所需要的经验（这大概可以解释为何年轻人更热衷于追星）；而同时，这些线索与构成声望的那些元素高度重合；或许正是生活技能，以及让某些人善于且乐于为后生言传身教的那些个人禀赋，为建立声望提供了启动资本。 学习者和他们的家长乐意为这些楷模提供各种互惠性报酬作为学费，比如帮助做家务、照看孩子，充当无偿或低报酬的助手（学徒制的先驱），为宴席提供食物或劳力赞助，在纠纷冲突中站在他一边，在择偶与结亲时给予优先考虑或优惠条件，等等；这些回报进而帮助他们建立更多社会关系，积累更多社会资本。 无论声望机制是否果真如亨里克所认为那样发端于学习需求（比如，不妨考虑，语言才华和社交技能也完全可能为建立声誉提供启动资本），声誉既经建立，确实可以带来政治权力，个人一旦占据互惠网络中心节点的位置，便会自动吸引更多追随者和拥护者，因为接近中心节点是这些追随者建立自身社会资本的捷径，这反过来又强化了中心节点的地位。 对声望与权力关系的剖析，可以帮助我们理解，为何在没有世袭制的国家，一些政治家族也可能长期兴旺，而另一些裙带网又因某个中心人物的垮台而树倒猢狲散？为何从几位贵妇的客厅里会涌出一轮轮社会运动甚至革命浪潮？为何学术权威越老越受其门徒推崇，即便其理论早已过时？为何一位气功大师身边会浮动着那么多巨商大贾的身影，即便他们看起来不太像是真信那套拙劣把戏？  

美利坚治世终结之后的这个动荡年代的揭幕战，大概会从土耳其开打吧，其他几个地方从人口结构看不太像，问题是跟谁，伊拉克库尔德自治区？

【2017-01-06】 @whigzhou: 川普几条tweets的恐吓威胁，就足以让福特通用们屈膝匍匐，噤若寒蝉，屁不敢放，仅此一点，即可体会联邦政府的权力已膨胀到了何种程度。 ​​​​ @whigzhou: 众多自称爱自由的人看到这种场面居然还能喜欢川普，实在无语。 @夫子大师兄: 我现在也挺不喜欢川普，但之前联邦权力的膨胀跟他没关系吧。 @whigzhou: 对，没关系，他只是在毫无克制的用这根越来越粗壮的权力大棒痛殴私人企业 @whigzhou: 很多人会从『讨厌川普』迅速跳到『投票给希拉里』甚至『喜欢希拉里』，我只能说他心智不健全 @whigzhou: 我对投川普票没什么意见，有N多理由可以做此选择，比如：1）更不喜欢希拉里，2）不了解川普，只知道他是共和党，3）川普虽讨厌，政策相对好一点，4）年纪大的或许靠谱点，5）索性烂个透反倒可能有转机……这些理由都不足以让我对他产生负面看法，但『喜欢川普』就是另一码事了 【2017-01-19】 @whigzhou: 既然川普不能容忍制造业外迁，他会容忍自动化吗？比如数十万卡车司机失业？上百万收银员呢？若要阻止，他会做什么？谷歌亚马逊uber 一家家恐吓过去？

【2017-01-03】 很明显，同性恋倾向于住在大城市，因为在小地方他们很难找到伙伴，假如总的同性恋比例为3%，一个1000人小镇成年男性250，处于性活跃期的不到200，其中6个男同，在很少出柜的年代，相互发现的机会很小。 ​​​​ 其次，同性恋会采用与其他人不同的社交模式，会更倾向于持续变换自己的邓巴圈组成，因为固定邓巴圈中存在另一个同性恋的几率只有0.2（假设邓巴数为150），必须不断轮换才有望找出潜在伙伴。 这一轮换搜索策略在大城市不仅空间更大，成本也更低，因为大城市不是熟人社会，解除旧关系的代价小。 这一倾向具有自我强化效果：当大城市吸引走一部分同性恋之后，剩下的更难找到伙伴了。 这是大城市可为小众消费带来规模优势的又一个例子。  

【2017-01-01】 @大鱼说漫画 中国各级官员除了西装之外，还统一会穿这种款式的夹克。母剃刀老师曾经花三千块钱买过同款。这个着装是什么时候开始形成的规则？哪位老师给讲讲？ ​​​​ @黄章晋ster:回复@Duchee_Ren:只是一个猜测，西装有一套来自西方的完整的礼仪规范讲究，无论从习惯还是从观念上，都不好直接照搬中国来，夹克虽然同样来自西方，但它并没有这套规范，既能显示身份又可显示亲民，故成为领导干部非正式场合着装的不二之选 @whigzhou: 动物庄园有一种推动审美趣味不断龟孙化的内在动力 @whigzhou: 爬到猪上校的位置之前，任何个人魅力的展示都是对猪的挑战，爬到后，就算想展示也已不会了，结果就是开国斧头帮的土匪腔去掉江湖气之后的阉匪味