Surrendering to Death 向死亡投降 作者：Gavin McInnes @ 2016-5-14 译者：Tankman 校对：babyface_claire（@许你疯不许你傻） 来源：Taki Mag，http://takimag.com/article/surrendering_to_death_gavin_mcinnes/ Eagles of Death Metal recently finished a Canadian tour and I got to sit down with vocalist Jesse Hughes and discuss the Bataclan attack in Paris that killed 89 of his fans. You’d think he’d want to avoid the topic, but he was actually eager to get into it. He sees it as a catharsis. 死亡金属之鹰乐队最近结束了一个加拿大巡演，我有机会和主唱Jesse Hughes坐下来讨论巴黎的Bataclan剧院惨案。该事件中，他的89位粉丝惨遭杀害。也许你认为他想回避这一话题，但他其实很渴望提到它。他将此视为一种宣泄。 Hughes is not happy with the way the media has treated the story. Details are randomly pulled from his interviews and entire angles are edited in later that are diametrically opposed to his beliefs. Jesse Hughes has been ordained as a minister by the Universal Life Church. He’s pro-gun, pro-Trump, and pro-life. He recognizes that Islam is the problem and political correctness is literally killing us. Hughes 不满意媒体对待该故事的方式。他访谈中的细节被随意抽出，整个视角随后则被编写成与他的信念截然相反。Jesse Hughes 已经被任命为普世生命教会的牧师【译者注：该宗教流派鼓励行善，并允许牧师保持其原有信仰，无论是基督教、伊斯兰教和无神论等。】。他支持持枪权，支持川普，也反对堕胎。他认为伊斯兰教才是问题所在，而政治正确正在真真切切的杀死我们。 Takimag: It’s hard to talk about the attack without sounding like you’re blaming the victims, but it’s impossible to deny fear of Islamophobia and fear of guns led to a lot of deaths that night. Taki杂志：谈论这次袭击，却避免听起来像是指责受害者，是很难的。但是不能否认的是：对伊斯兰恐惧症的恐惧，和对枪支的恐惧，导致了那晚很多人的死亡。 Jesse Hughes: I saw fear fall like a blanket on the whole crowd and they fell like wheat in the wind—the way you would before a god. I was totally alert from the very beginning. The first thing I needed to do was find my girl. Fear took a backseat and “where’s my girl?” took over. Jesse Hughes：我看见恐惧如毯子一样盖在整个人群上，人群倒伏在地，如风中的麦子——就是那种面对上帝你会下拜的姿态。我从一开始就非常的警觉。首先，我需要做的是找到我的女朋友。恐惧退居第二位，而“我的女朋友在哪”则位居第一。 I could smell gunpowder in the backstage area and I knew someone fired a round back there. I saw a guy with an FAL and when he turned to face me his eyes looked like marbles. He was stoned out of his mind, and we now know they were on Xanax and cocaine. I recognized him. I’d seen him earlier in the day and noticed him staring at us. 我可以在后台区域闻到火药味，我知道某人往那边打了一梭子。我看见一个配有轻型自动步枪的人，当他面朝我时，他的眼睛看起来像玻璃弹珠一样。他整个呆住了，现在我们知道他们当时是嗑了蝴蝶丸和可卡因。我认出了他。当天早些时候，我看到过他并注意到他盯着我们看。 They were in the venue early. That implies some staff were in on it. 他们早先就在会场。这意味着有些工作人员参与了此事。 I got in a lot of trouble for saying that. I know for sure that they were in there early. I remember them staring at my buddy. I just chalked it up to Arab envy. You know what I mean? When a Muslim sees a cocky American dude with tattoos, he stares at him. 因为声称这点，我遭遇了很多麻烦。我很肯定他们早先就在那里。我记得他们盯着乐队成员看。我当时认为那只是阿拉伯式的羡慕。你懂吧？当一个穆斯林看到一个臭屁的纹着身的美国哥们，他就盯着那人看。 I realized later it was Abdeslam and he was staring at my buddy because they thought he was a threat. There’s no denying the terrorists were already inside, and they had to get in somehow. During the shooting I went outside and the backstage door was propped open. How did that happen? 之后我意识到那人是 Abdeslam【译者注：袭击参与者之一】。他盯着我哥们看，因为他们认为他是个威胁。无可否认，恐怖分子已经混进里面了，他们必须用某种法子混进去。在枪击中，我跑到外面去，而后台的门是大开着的。这是怎么发生的？ Do you think political correctness is killing our natural instincts and making us vulnerable? 你认为政治正确正在杀死我们的自然直觉，并使得我们变得易受攻击吗？ Definitely. There were two girls who were involved. They were at the venue and vanished before the shooting, and these women were in traditional Muslim garb. They knew people wouldn’t check them because of the way they were dressed. They got caught a few days later. 当然。有两个女孩参与了此事。她们曾在大厅里，但在枪击前又消失了。这些女士穿着传统穆斯林服装。他们知道因为她们的穿着，人们不会检查她们。几天后她们被抓获。 The fear of offending Muslims is a terrorist’s greatest weapon. 害怕冒犯穆斯林的心态是恐怖分子最有力的武器。 Look at the guys who bombed Brussels. They were wearing black gloves on one hand. Their luggage was too heavy to lift, but they didn’t want anyone helping them with it. Nobody brought any of this up until after the bombs went off. 看看那些在布鲁塞尔放炸弹的家伙。他们一只手带着黑手套，他们的行李太重举不起来，但是他们不想让任何人帮助他们搬行李。直到炸弹爆炸后才有人把这些线索联系起来。 We’d rather die than be called a bigot. 我们宁死也不愿意被称作是偏执狂。 How is a faith being associated with racism? Just take out the word “Islam” and replace it with “communism.” It’s an ideology. The same way the Rosenbergs could sell nuclear secrets from within America is the same way Muslim terrorists can attack us from within. It’s okay to be discerning when it comes to Muslims in this day and age. 一种信仰是如何被和种族主义联系起来的？只要把“伊斯兰”一词抽掉，换成“共产主义”。这就是一种意识形态。和卢森堡夫婦出卖美国的原子弹机密一样，穆斯林恐怖分子也从内部袭击我们。今时今日，一旦涉及到穆斯林，小心一点没错。 Where is this push coming from? Is it all our fault? 这动机从何而来？都是我们的错吗？ Of course not. When you’re at a soccer game in Europe and you see the words “United Arab Emirates,” you know there is a lot of Arab money floating around and influencing the dialogue. The conversation is constantly being steered away from scrutiny. They think we’re fools. 当然不是。当你在欧洲的足球赛场看到阿联酋一词，你就知道有很多阿拉伯资金流入并影响了交流。这一交流始终得以避开审慎的检视。他们觉得我们是白痴。 Arab money is a pollutant. So many movies are made with Arab money. George Clooney doesn’t kiss the ass of the Arabs for no reason. American movies are the best way to influence the hearts and minds of the world. 阿拉伯资金是一种污染物。如此多的电影是在阿拉伯资金的支持下拍摄的。乔治·克鲁尼不是无缘无故跪舔这些阿拉伯人的。美国电影是影响这世界的心灵和思想的最佳方式。 You never see bad guys in movies who are Arab terrorists. It’s always Germans or French… 电影中，你从来看不到阿拉伯恐怖分子作为坏人出现。总是德国人或者法国人。 Or conservative Christian rednecks. They’re apparently what’s wrong with everything in the world now, including global warming. What about the other ice age we went through? There were no Christian Republicans back then. What caused that meltdown? 或者保守的红脖子基督徒。他们显然是这个世界当下各种麻烦的根源，包括全球变暖。那我们经历过的那个冰河时代呢？那时候可没有基督徒共和党人。那是什么导致了这场灾难呢？ The other problem with that is, when you get rid of these Christian rednecks, you create a vacuum and it gets filled with people way worse. It gets filled with Islam. You end up replacing evangelism with sharia law. 另一个麻烦是，如果你排挤走这些红脖基督徒，你就创造了一个真空，让更糟糕的人来填补。伊斯兰填补了这真空。你的结局就是用伊斯兰教法代替福音主义。 Politicians behave better when they know people are watching. We behave better when we believe Jesus is watching us. 当知道人们在监督时，政客们的行为更规矩。当相信耶稣在看着我们时，我们的行为更规矩。 These atheists tell us we don’t need religion, yet everyone seems to be creating flimsy substitutes to replace it. Rehab is just Lent. Meditation is just Latin Mass. Seeing a therapist is just talking to your priest. 那些无神论者告诉我们，我们不需要宗教，不过每个人似乎都在创造轻浮脆弱的替代品来代替宗教。修复期实际是大斋期【译者注：在西方基督教国家，每年的大斋期是基督徒献供与苦修的时期，也是洗涤罪恶，承蒙天主启示的时期】。冥想实际是拉丁弥撒。去看治疗师实际上是和你的牧师谈话。 And the thing about the Bible is it’s written down. A therapist can change his diagnosis just like that and there’s no way of calling him out on it. 而圣经，就是那些被写了下来的（治愈谈话），它不像一个治疗师可以任意更改其诊断，而且人们无法在这事上挑战他。 Let’s get back to the attack. Why didn’t the cops come in earlier? It seemed like the killing went on forever. 让我们回到袭击这个话题。为什么警察不能更早来呢？当时看起来杀戮好像会永远进行下去。 The press heard some kids were locked away in rooms so they reported it as a hostage situation. Those kids were hiding. This misinformation meant the cops set up outside for a negotiation while inside dozens of people were dying. 媒体听说一些小孩被锁在房间里，所以他们当时把这事当作人质危机报道。那些小孩在躲藏。这种信息误导意味着警察在外面准备谈判，而内部的数十人则正在死去。 The terrorists would go up to bodies and stick them with the gun. If they budged, they’d shoot them again. One girl got up and said she was scared. The guy said, “Don’t be scared, you’ll be dead in two minutes,” and then he shot her, BOOM. 恐怖分子们会走近倒下的人，用枪戳他们。如果倒地者动了，就会被补枪。一个女孩爬了起来，说她很害怕。一个恐怖分子说“别怕，你在两分钟内就会死。”然后他开枪打了她，砰。 The French are so concerned with racism, they’re letting Muslims get away with murder. 法国人太在意种族主义，他们让穆斯林逍遥法外。 A day after, at the stadium, Muslims booed the moment of silence and we barely heard about it in the press. I saw Muslims celebrating in the street during the attack. I saw it with my own eyes. In real time! How did they know what was going on? There must have been coordination. 一天后，在球场上，穆斯林在默哀时刻发出嘘声，而我们很少听到关于这一情节的媒体报道。袭击的时候，我看到穆斯林们在街上庆祝袭击。我亲眼看到这事。就在袭击的那个时刻。他们怎么知道袭击正在发生？这些事情一定有联系。 I’ve heard you say you credit your childhood with your survival. You had a real dad who stuck around and taught you about guns. 我听说你提到你的童年经历帮你幸存了下来。你有个陪伴你的父亲，而且教给你关于枪支的知识。 I knew what gunfire was. I was able to think through it. I was also able to remember practical lessons of my life because I had to be in fights as a kid. My mom didn’t go sue anyone. I didn’t have playdates. I had some practical upbringing growing up in the desert where you got to get yourself out of your problems. 我知道开枪是怎么回事。我能把这事考虑清楚。我也能记起我生活中的实际经验，因为我小时候不得不参与打架。我妈妈没有起诉任何人，我也没有大人给我找的玩伴。我有些实际成长经验，在孤立无援的困境中你只能靠你自己走出来。 Also, the reason I’ve done well with this healing process is everything I was raised to believe was affirmed that night. In a way, that’s a blessing of God. When the first bullets started being fired, people looked at me. I remember that. It pissed me off because I knew right then and there it was going to be bad. I knew these kids had no idea what was coming. None. They’d never heard a gunshot in real life and it hit them so hard. 而且，我从此事件中恢复的如此之好的原因是，我长大成人过程中得到的一切信念都在那一晚被肯定了。某种程度上，这是神的保佑。当第一颗子弹出膛，人们看着我。我记得这点。这让我愤怒，因为就在那刻那地我知道事情要坏了。我知道那些孩子们对即将发生的事情毫无概念。没有一个知道。他们从未在现实生活中听到过一声枪响，这重重的打击了他们。 Political correctness kills. 政治正确在杀人。 Davey [bassist Dave Catching] was in the middle of the stage and when the lights went on, he saw shit he’d never seen before in his life, awful stuff. It has no parallel. It’s not just death. It’s the most unsuspecting, innocent victims you can imagine—people who are gripped in terror and can’t move as a result of it. 当灯光开启时，Davey（贝斯手Dave Catching）在舞台中间，他看到了他此生从未见过的可怕场景，可怕极了。没什么可以与此相比。不仅仅是死亡。那是你可以想象的最无辜最没有防备的受害人——人们被笼罩在恐怖中呆若木鸡。 It’s like a metaphor for all of Western civilization. 这好像是所有西方文明的一个隐喻。 I watched about seven people die. A couple of them were three feet from the barrier. They could have fallen backwards and been alive but they were too scared to even turn around. I remember a woman just standing with her hands up in a surrender pose. The terrorist finally saw her and all she did was go, “No no no.” She surrendered to death in front of my very eyes. I was yelling at her, “HEY!” and I don’t think she could hear me. She was so terrified, I think she’d already given up. 我目睹了大约七个人死亡。他们中一些离护栏就三英尺远。他们也许能翻越护栏逃生，但他们太害怕了甚至不敢转身。我记得一个女人就站在那里，高举双手作投降状。恐怖分子终于看见了她，而她只是一味的说“不，不，不。”就在我的眼前，她向死亡投降了。我向她呐喊，“嗨！”。我不认为她听到了我。她如此害怕，我想她已经放弃了。 Is it fair to say the liberal mentality created this need to surrender? 说自由派的精神气质创造了投降的需要，合理吗？ I will lay the blame right in its lap. When you tell people they can’t help themselves and that they’re children, you weaken them to a point where three feet away is life and they can’t see it because they’re too scared. 对，我要责怪的正是他们。当你告诉人们他们不能自助，他们只是孩子，你就把他们变弱到一个连三英尺远的逃生机会都看不到的地步。他们看不到，因为他们太害怕了。 In a way we’re unarmed two fold. We’re literally unarmed and we’re also mentally unarmed. 某种程度上我们是双倍的赤手空拳。我们本来就赤手空拳，而且我们在精神上赤手空拳。 It’s like the bleating sheep from Animal Farm. You suggest anything that strays from the narrative and this chorus of bleats comes to drown you out. This attack didn’t happen by accident. 就像《动物庄园》中懦弱哀嚎的绵羊。当你的观点脱离叙述的主流，这懦弱哀嚎的合唱就把你的声音盖过。这个袭击不是偶然发生的。 I went to Paris after the attacks and was disgusted by the lack of rage. They didn’t blame Islam. In fact, many blamed the Jews. They seemed more concerned with us promoting xenophobia than laying blame on the terrorists. 我在袭击后去过巴黎，并对缺乏愤怒的程度感到恶心。他们没有谴责伊斯兰。事实上，很多人指责犹太人。比起指责恐怖分子，他们似乎更关心我们促进仇外情绪。 I hung out with plenty of Parisians who were fucking pissed off, but it was mostly cops and military. During the attack, one cop finally realized it wasn’t a hostage situation and yelled out, “It’s a turkey shoot” as he charged in, holding his gun. He got shot right through the hand and into the neck and kept going. He took a terrorist out, chased another one into the hallway, who then blew himself up, and did it to another guy, who blew himself up on stage. Our amplifiers were a gory mess. 我和很多出离愤怒的巴黎人交流过，但是这些主要都是警察和军人。在袭击期间，一个警察终于意识到这不是人质劫持，他持枪突入，并且大叫，“这是土耳其射击！”。他被子弹穿过手，击中脖子，仍然进击。他撂倒了一个恐怖分子，在走廊追击另一个。那恐怖分子就自爆了。之后又追击另一个，那人在舞台上自爆。我们的扩音器上血肉模糊。 Did that cop live? 那警察生还了吗？ Yes, I met him in triage. I hung out with him. Great guy. 是的。我在急救站见过他。我们后来又聚了一次。很好的人。 You went to the hospital? 你进医院了？ I had pieces of teeth and human bone pulled out of my face. A girl got shot right next to me by the shooter at the top of the stairs who I had met earlier. She stepped one step in front of me and her head just exploded. It blew pieces of her teeth and skull into my face. 从我的脸上取出了牙齿和人骨碎片。我旁边的女生被楼梯顶上我早先见过的枪手击中了，她在我面前踉跄了一下，接着她的头爆开了。她的牙齿和头骨碎片扎进了我的脸。 Why don’t we hear about this? 为何我们没听到此事？ The media wants to summarize it, and important details get lost. The most important detail being when they started shooting, they were already inside. If they were hanging out enough to let three people go, then they knew security dudes. They knew bouncers. They knew doormen. 媒体想要总结事件，而重要的细节则丢失了。最重要的细节是，在他们开始射击时，他们早已经混入内部了。如果他们让三个人混入都能保持隐蔽，那他们一定认识保安。他们认识门卫。 Do you think a percentage of the security staff was Muslim? 你认为有一定比例的保安人员是穆斯林？ I know they were. Look, security guards backstage are notorious for being dicks. They check your ID every few minutes and nobody goes back and forth without being checked, even if you’re in the band. This guy didn’t care what we did. He didn’t even look at me. 我知道他们其中一些是。听着，后台保安一般以严格著称。他们没几分钟就会查验你的证件。没人能不被检查来回穿梭，即使你是乐队的一员。而这次后台保安则不管我们是干什么的，他甚至没看我。 The only time he seemed remotely interested in us was when he said to my girlfriend, “Do you speak French?” and “Where are you from?” She said she was from Texas and he was getting frustrated because that’s not what he meant. Then she said, “I’m American” and he lost interest. I honestly think he was trying to determine if she was Arab or not. She’s Mexican and she could easily pass for Lebanese and I think he was going to warn her if she was Muslim. 唯一一次他看来对我们稍有兴趣是他问我女友“你说法语吗？”以及“你从哪里来？”她说她从德州来，而他则感到沮丧，因为这不是他所要问的。然后女友说“我是美国人。”他就失去了兴趣。坦率的说，我认为他试图判定她是不是阿拉伯人。她是个墨西哥人，很容易被错认成黎巴嫩人。我认为如果女友是穆斯林，他当时会警告她。 I kept opening up the back door to smoke and that’s usually a big no-no because of the sound ordinances. I’ve played there before and opening up that door to smoke got you in big trouble. This time, the security guy walks right past me and anxiously looks down the alleyway in either direction. 我让后门开着以便抽烟，通常这是绝不允许的，因为噪声管制。以前我在这里演奏过，开门抽烟会给你带来大麻烦。这次，保安径直从我身边走过，焦虑的打量通道的各个方向。 Maybe one of the reasons the cops are so much more pragmatic about this threat is that they are the ones who have to go into Les Banlieues and confront these people. Naïveté is a luxury they can’t afford. 也许对恐怖威胁，警察的态度现实得多的原因之一是，他们正是那些要去市郊移民聚居区，面对穆斯林的人。幼稚是他们负担不起的奢侈品。 When the cops went in after the attack, they shut down, what, 450 mosques? They found recruitment material in every single one of them. What the fuck is wrong with us that we don’t know about that? 当袭击后警察进入聚居区时，他们沉默了，什么，450个清真寺？他们在它们中的每一个都发现了招募材料。我们到底是怎么了，竟然不知道这事？ Parisians think everyone is innocent, but the cops don’t. They even investigated you. 巴黎人认为每个人都是无辜的，但是警察不这么想。他们甚至会调查你。 I was a person of interest, yes. They interrogated me for four days. I ended up helping them a lot by getting cell-phone footage. It was the cops and the FBI who asked me about the promoter and the security. This isn’t something I brought up to them. 我是个需要被调查的人，是的。他们盘问了我四天。最终我通过现场手机视频帮了他们很多。是警察和FBI问了我关于演出组织者和保安的问题。这不是我提出来的。 We had eight police officers in our audience that night. They all had the same conversation with their wives, which was “Should I bring my gun or not?” All of them said no. When we went back and played Paris again they stood in the same places they stood at the original show and they opened their jackets and showed me their guns as if to say, “Not tonight, motherfucker.” It was beautiful. 当晚观众中有八个警察。他们全都和太太有过相同的对话，“我应该带枪吗？”。太太们全都说不。当我们回到巴黎再次演出的时候，他们站在我以前演出时他们站过的地方，而且他们打开外套，向我展示他们的枪，好像在说，“今晚狗杂种们休想再搞事”。真赞。 Islam is crying wolf about Islamophobia in order to anesthetize us and make us easier prey. 对伊斯兰恐惧症，伊斯兰教不断叫嚷“狼来了”，为了麻痹我们，使我们更容易被猎杀。 They know there’s a whole group of white kids out there who are stupid and blind. You have these affluent white kids who have grown up in a liberal curriculum from the time they were in kindergarten, inundated with these lofty notions that are just hot air. Look at where it’s getting them. 他们知道有一大群白人孩子都是愚蠢和无知的。有大堆的白人孩子自幼儿园起，就成长于自由派课程中，沉浸在热空气般虚无不切实际的幻想中。看看这些白孩子将要面对的吧。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

【2015-10-29】 @海德沙龙 《欧元危机背后的微观病灶》在有关欧元危机的报道和评论中，货币政策、财政赤字、物价、失业率等宏观因素总是处于议论焦点，微观层面却很少得到关注，经济学家Christian Thimann在比较了各欧元国过去15年贸易差额后发现：顺差国顺差恒增，逆差国逆差同样恒增，这只能从微观方面理解 @whigzhou: 分隔顺差区和逆差区的界线真是太眼熟了～ @whigzhou: 日耳曼vs非日耳曼，新教vs天主教/东正教，文化禀赋真是千年难改啊 @whigzhou: 个人责任vs命苦赖别人，重诺守信vs说话当放屁，遵守规则愿赌服输vs习惯性耍赖……

Europe: When the Macro Overshadows the Micro 欧洲：当宏观现象掩盖微观动因时 作者：Timothy Taylor @ 2015-8-14 译者：小瑛 校对：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy） 来源：Conversable Economist, http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com.br/2015/08/europe-when-macro-overshadows-micro.html Christian Thimann currently works with the French investment bank AXA while also holding an academic position at the Paris School of Economics. However, from 2008 to 2013 he was Director General and Adviser to the President at the European Central Bank, which makes his views on the economics and politics of the euro crisis especially worth considering. 在巴黎经济学院担任教职的Christian Thimann目前正与法国投资银行安盛合作。他在2008至2013年间曾任欧洲中央银行行长顾问，这个经历使他对欧元危机的相关经济和政治观点变得尤为重要。 He lays out his perspective in "The Microeconomic Dimensions of the Eurozone Crisis and Why European Politics Cannot Solve Them," which appears in the Summer 2015 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. Like all JEP articles, it is freely available online courtesy of the American Economic Association. (Full disclosure: I've worked as Managing Editor of JEP since the first issue of the journal in 1987.) 他在《经济展望杂志》2015年夏季刊上发表的“欧元区危机的微观视角，及为什么欧洲政治无法解决危机”一文，详细阐述了他的观点。像所有《经济展望杂志》刊登的文章一样，美国经济学会将其免费放到网上供大家阅览。（好吧我承认：我从1987年《经济展望杂志》创刊号开始就担任责任编辑）。 On the economics of the eurozone, Thimann argues that the problems have microeconomic roots, not just macroeconomic ones. Here are a couple of intriguing figures. Thimann points out that since the inception of the euro, some economies have consistently run trade surpluses, while others have consistently run trade deficits. This figure shows the cumulative trade surpluses and deficits over time. What's especially interesting to me is the relative steadiness of these lines: countries with trade surpluses tend to add surpluses every year, countries with deficits tend to add deficits every year. Thimann认为，欧元区经济问题的根源不止在宏观，也有微观层面的根源。以下是一些有趣的图表。Thimann指出，自从欧元诞生开始，某些经济体持续贸易顺差而另一些一直贸易逆差。下图展示了各国历年来的累计贸易顺差和逆差。让我特别感兴趣的是这些曲线的相对恒定性：贸易顺差国盈余每年都在增加，而逆差国赤字亦逐年增长。   Thimann argues that a driving factor behind these trade imbalances arises out of the interaction between wages and productivity. If wages in a country are growing a lot faster than productivity, then in effect, the cost of producing in that country is rising and it will be harder for that country to sell in international markets. If two countries share the same currency, so that exchange rate adjustments are not possible, then a country where wages are growing much faster than productivity will be at a competitive disadvantage compared with countries where wage growth is more closely aligned with productivity growth. Thimann points out that in the trade deficit countries, compensation soared well above productivity growth almost as soon as the euro was in place. Thimann认为，这些贸易不平衡是工资和生产率综合作用的结果。如果一国的工资增长速度高于生产率增速，则该国生产成本将上升，因此其产品在国际市场上的销路不会好。如果两国货币相同，无法使用汇率调节手段，那么工资增长快于生产率增长的国家竞争力就不如工资和生产率增长速度相对一致的国家。Thimann指出，在贸易逆差国，薪酬增长速度高于生产率增长速度的现象几乎是与欧元的启用同时发生的。   Why is Greece not shown among the countries here? Thimann writes in the note under the table: "Greece is not shown in the chart because, while the productivity increase is broadly comparable to that of Portugal, the wage growth was even steeper, rising by 2008 to 180 percent of the 1998 value, hence exceeding the scale of the countries shown; wages have declined by about 20 percent since the crisis to 160 percent." 为何上表中没有希腊？Thimann在表注中解释：“表中没有希腊是因为，如果说希腊的生产率增长还能大体与葡萄牙相比的话，那么其工资增长则过于迅速，从1998年到2008年增长了180%，远高于其他国家，乃至无法在同一张表中展示；从危机开始到现在工资已经下降了20%，至160%”。 Why did wages rise so quickly in the trade deficit countries? Some countries saw real estate bubbles or surges in government borrowing that pushed up wages in a way that productivity growth could not sustain. Public-sector wages took off: "Over the first ten years of the euro, public wages grew by 40 percent in the eurozone as a whole and by 30 percent in Germany. But public sector wages rose by 50 percent in France, 60 percent in Italy, 80 percent in Spain, 110 percent in Greece, and 120 percent in Ireland." 为何贸易逆差国的工资增长如此快？有些国家存在房地产泡沫，或过多依靠政府借贷而非生产力的持续增长推动工资增长。公共领域工资暴涨：“欧元启头十年，整个欧元区公共部门工资的平均增长水平是40%，其中德国为30%。而这一数字在法国，意大利，西班牙，希腊和爱尔兰分别是50%，60%，80%，110%和120%。” A common justification given for the rapid wage increases was that price levels in many of the trade deficit countries were rising, often at 6-7% per year, and so there was a perceived need for wages to keep up. But for the purposes of international trade and competitiveness, what matters is the wage--not the rise in local-country prices. 通常对工资迅速增长的辩护是，因为贸易逆差国家物价水平增长迅速，多为每年6%-7%，所以名义工资也要相应增加。但在讨论国际贸易和竞争力问题时，关注点是工资，而不是某国物价。 Thimann goes into some detail about how the trade deficit countries in the eurozone also tended to impose rules and regulations leading to higher wages and restrictions on business. My favorite story of the heavy hand of regulation in Greece is one that Megan Green told on her blog back in 2012, but I've been telling it ever since. It's about finding yourself in a combination bookstore/coffee shop in Athens which, because of regulations, is not allowed at that time to sell books or coffee. Green writes: Thimann还深入细节描述了一个现象：欧元区内贸易赤字国家更倾向于制定提高工资且限制商业的政策和法规。我最喜欢的关于希腊严苛政策的描述，来自Megan Green 2012年发表的一篇博客文章，我经常提起它。文章描述了作者在雅典一家书吧的经历，由于政府规定，这家书吧当时既不能卖书也不能卖咖啡。Green写到：

This is best encapsulated in an anecdote from my visit to Athens. A friend and I met up at a new bookstore and café in the centre of town, which has only been open for a month. The establishment is in the center of an area filled with bars, and the owner decided the neighborhood could use a place for people to convene and talk without having to drink alcohol and listen to loud music. 我在雅典的趣闻能充分说明这一点。我和一个朋友约在市中心一家开业仅一月的书吧见面。这一区周围都是酒吧，店主认为在这里开一间为需要小憩聊天但又不想喝酒精饮料听喧闹音乐的人们服务的店铺是个好主意。 After we sat down, we asked the waitress for a coffee. She thanked us for our order and immediately turned and walked out the front door. My friend explained that the owner of the bookstore/café couldn’t get a license to provide coffee. She had tried to just buy a coffee machine and give the coffee away for free, thinking that lingering patrons would boost book sales. 我们落座后向服务员点了咖啡。她对我们的光顾表示感谢后，立刻转身走出前门。我朋友解释说，店主无法取得出售咖啡的营业执照。她尝试买了一个咖啡机向客人免费提供咖啡，这样吸引客人光顾也能促进图书销售。 However, giving away coffee was illegal as well. Instead, the owner had to strike a deal with a bar across the street, whereby they make the coffee and the waitress spends all day shuttling between the bar and the bookstore/café. My friend also explained to me that books could not be purchased at the bookstore, as it was after 18h and it is illegal to sell books in Greece beyond that hour. I was in a bookstore/café that could neither sell books nor make coffee. 然而，免费提供咖啡也是非法的。店主只能请街对面的酒吧帮忙制作咖啡，而店员要终日往返于书吧和酒吧之间。我朋友还解释说，不能在店里买书，因为18点以后出售图书在希腊是违法的。我光顾的是一家既不能卖书也不能制作咖啡的书吧。

One story like this is a comedy. An economy in which stories like this are commonplace--and which is locked into a free-trade zone with countries sharing a common currency, is a tragedy waiting to happen. 仅仅一则这样的故事还只是趣闻，可是当一个经济体满是此类故事时，灾难随时都可能发生，更何况这个经济体还处于同周边国家共用同一种货币的自由贸易区内。 On the politics of the eurozone, Thimann argues that the euro, the European Central Bank, and all the European-wide negotations over debt overshadowing these other issues. Normally, when a democratic country has miserable economic performance with high unemployment and slow growth, a common response is for its citizens to demand some policy changes from their politicians. 就欧元区的政治，Thimann认为，欧元、欧洲央行和有关债务问题的所有全欧层面的谈判掩盖了其他问题。一般情况下，当一个民主国家经济萧条，失业率高且经济增长缓慢时，民众通常会要求政治家修改政策。 But in the euro-zone, when a country has a miserable economic performance, the politicians of that country tell the citizens that it's not their fault. It's all the fault of the Euro-crats in Brussels, or Germans pulling strings behind the scenes, or the ECB. The politicians tell the voters that self-examination unnecessary and even counterproductive, because they to unite against the malign outsiders. 但在欧元区内，当国家经济不振时，政府会向民众辩解这不是他们的错，罪魁祸首是布鲁塞尔的欧盟官员，或是在背后操纵的德国，或是欧洲央行。政客们会告诉选民，自省没有必要甚至起反作用，因为他们要联合起来抵抗外敌。 Here are some concluding thoughts from Thimann: 下面是Thimann的一些结论性观点：

At the core of the economic crisis in the eurozone is the problem of unemployment in several countries. Roughly 18.2 million people are unemployed in early 2015. In about half the eurozone countries, the unemployment rate is below 10 percent, and in Germany it is actually below 5 percent (Eurostat data, February 2015), but in France, 10.7 percent of the labor force are unemployed; in Italy, 12.7 percent; in Portugal, 14.1 percent; in Spain, 23.2 percent; and in Greece, 26.0 percent. ... 欧元区经济危机的核心是一些国家的失业问题。2015年初大约有1820万失业人口。半数欧元国家的失业率在10%以下，德国甚至低于5%（欧盟统计局，2015年2月），但法国有10.7%的劳动人口没有工作，意大利12.7%；葡萄牙14.1%；西班牙23.2%；希腊26%…… It is legitimate to speak about this as a problem for the eurozone in the sense that economic policies in a single currency area are truly a matter of common concern, and also because high unemployment interferes with the smooth functioning of the eurozone, challenging its economic and political cohesion. But it is not accurate to attribute responsibility for the problem, or the solution, to the eurozone as a whole, to European institutions, or to other countries. 我们有理由将此视为一个欧元区问题，因为单一货币区内的经济政策是各国都关注的问题，同时高失业率妨碍欧元区正常运作，挑战其政治和经济凝聚力。但将问题的责任或解决方法归咎于欧元区整体、欧盟机构或其他国家，都是不准确的。 Jobs fail to be created in a number of these countries not because of a “lack of demand” as often claimed, but mainly because wage costs are high relative to productivity, social insurance and tax burdens are heavy, and the business environment is excessively burdensome. All of this should be viewed not in absolute terms,but in relative terms, compared with other economies in Europe and countries around the world where labor costs and productivity are more advantageous, and the business environment is friendlier. 许多国家未能有效创造就业，并不像通常认为的那样是由于“缺乏需求”，主要是因为相对于其生产率水平，工资过高，社会福利和税负过重，商业环境极其不友好。所有这些因素都不能绝对地看，而应相对地看，要和生产成本与生产率更有优势、商业环境更友善的欧洲和全球其他国家放在一起比较研究。 “Europe” is not an all-powerful actor in the field of national economic policies, but only a potentially useful facilitator. Only the country concerned is the legitimate and able party to improve its own economic functioning in line with its social preferences and economic setup. This is why European politics cannot solve the microeconomic dimensions of the eurozone crisis. Within individual countries, it is the governments, administrative authorities, social partners, and all other economic stakeholders that are the legitimate actors in the field of economic and social policies.... “欧洲”在国家层面的经济政策制定上并不是一个有力的参与者，仅有潜在的催化剂作用。只有各相关国家自己才有合法性也有能力依照自身社会偏好和经济结构，设法提高经济运行状况。这就是为什么欧洲政治无法解决欧元区危机微观因素的原因所在。在每一个国家中，经济和社会政策领域中真正有效的参与者是该国的政府，行政机构，社会伙伴和其他经济利益相关者…… For the eurozone countries, their economic and unemployment problems are not primarily a question about some countries versus other countries within the monetary union, but about finding their place in an open global economy—that is, about competing and cooperating successfully with advanced, emerging, and developing economies across the globe. 对欧元区国家，经济和失业问题主要不是货币同盟中国家间的问题，而是能否在开放的全球经济中找到自己的立足点，即成功与全球众多发达、新兴或发展中经济体展开经济合作的问题。 An inward-looking European debate on the distribution of the relative adjustment burden for structural reforms would dramatically overlook the much broader challenges of integration into the global economy. ... It may be more glamorous to focus on European monetary policy, the “European architecture,” or the “bigger macro picture.” But the real issue of—and solution to—the crisis in the eurozone lies in the mostly microeconomic trenches of national economic, social, and structural policies. 关于结构改革带来的重担如何在各国间分配这种纯欧洲内部的争论，会令人极度忽视融入世界经济的挑战……讨论欧洲货币政策，“欧洲铸造者”或“更宏观的图景”等可能显得高大上。但欧元区危机的症结和解决方法所在，主要是国家层面的经济、社会和结构政策的微观经济壕沟。

I think Thimann may understate the fundamental macroeconomic problems that are being created by the presence of the euro (as I've discussed here and here, for example). But he seems to me quite correct to emphasize that many European countries badly need structural, regulatory, and microeconomic adjustments. Moreover, politicians and voters in many of these countries would much rather assail the rest of Europe about international negotiations involving public debt and the euro, rather than face their domestic political issues. 我认为Thimann明白使用欧元带来的基本宏观问题（比如，我在http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2014/02/will-we-look-back-on-euro-as-mistake.html和http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2013/08/a-euro-narrative.html讨论过的）。然而，他所强调的很多欧洲国家急需结构、法规和微观经济调整，在我看来也是合理的。此外，在许多此类国家中，政治家和选民更愿意攻击其他欧洲国家在公共债务和欧元问题国际谈判中的立场，而不是面对本国的政治问题。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

【2015-09-06】 @whigzhou: 智能手机年代，可以想象这些广告的号召力有多大 //FW 难民，在德国得到“All Inkluisve”的特殊客人 O网页链接 作者小语，以国际援助组织一名员工的身份，细数她在难民营内部一些鲜为人知的感触与见闻。 @whigzhou: 欧洲最坏的结果是缓慢而均匀的绿化，这样的话，等土著醒悟过来就晚了，票数不够了，要挽回只能靠硬打了，相对不坏的结果是，其中一国迅速沦陷，然后炸锅逆天了，可是我真心不愿看到这是德国啊。 @梳皇斗饮口味刁:德国人认死理，不如英国佬转变快 @whigzhou: 是，所以一旦翻转过来，又会从另一个方向上变得非常可怕 @whigzhou: 欧洲政治精英圈高度封闭，而该圈的意识形态又一边倒，大众的相反诉求在上层根本找不到出路，结果最后只能诉诸民粹主义，看不到平缓扭转的可能性 @whigzhou: 法国选民把右派一次次选上去，结果却发现他们跟左派差不多一路货 @研二公知苗:政治精英封闭是因为比例代表加政党名单制吗？ @whigzhou: 我觉得跟教育和学校体制关系更大，公立的基础教育，官办的大学体系，都有着强烈的封闭化倾向，比如按德国的体制，孩子从小学高年级开始，就被分入技术/职业轨道和学术/精英轨道了，进前一条轨道的，就一辈子老老实实听精英的好了 @whigzhou: 详情可参考 http://t.cn/RPKxQAC 每个孩子读完四年小学后，经学校甄别后被分入三条轨道：Hauptschule：老老实实学手艺做工人吧，Realschule：老老实实做个白领吧，Gymnasium：恭喜，你是未来精英。 @Kameeldoring:你该去法国成立政党。 @whigzhou: 拯救人类这事儿不归我管，我看看热闹就行了 @Kameeldoring:欧洲人自己都不管自己了，或许以后会爆发各种极端主义，或者改革福利、移民政策吧。 @whigzhou: 改革福利怎么可能，民粹主义者一般都热爱福利，无论左右，Trump也不例外

欧洲青年失业率高企乃政策恶果 辉格 2012年5月29日 今年的国际劳工大会即将在日内瓦召开，这次会议的一大议题是青年失业危机，所以此前一周，部分与会者已在日内瓦召集了一个青年就业论坛专门讨论这一危机；按国际劳工组织总干事的看法，青年失业率高企是因为政策对青年人的忽视，而忽视又是因为政策制定过程缺乏青年人的参与。 如此看待政策与其社会效果之间关系的方式实在幼稚，仿佛只要政府里增加几个女议员女部长，女性状况就会改善了，照此逻辑，婴儿和动物的状况恐怕就永难指望因政策而改善了；其实，青年就业问题从来未被忽视，在问题最严重的几个欧洲国家，多年来它一直是竞选和政策辩论的重要话题，也出台了大量针对性的法规，只是这些法规起不到预期效果，反而使问题越来越严重。 可以预料的是，只要试图解决问题的政策路线仍走在目前主导欧洲政治的福利主义轨道上，未来青年失业问题只会越来越严重；实际上，这一危机正是社会保障、劳工保护和就业促进这三大福利政策交配繁殖出的恶果：社会福利首先降低了就业的必要性，最低工资法继而将低生产率劳工排除出就业市场，最后，职业保障法的种种严苛规定让企业不敢雇人，宁可用机器代替或将业务外包到其他国家。 这些政策提高了整体失业率水平，同时因为其结构性特征，失业后果大部分落在了青年头上，这些国家的青年失业率平时就在平均水平的两倍以上，萧条期则更高，当衰退导致失业加剧时，青年失业率常翻倍上涨，远高于总体上涨速度。 原因不难寻找，首先，最低工资法剥夺的是低生产率劳工的就业机会，而青年由于缺乏职业经验，劳动生产率往往不如中年人，同时他们因跳槽、婚假、产假而带给雇主的负担也较高，所以当雇主因最低工资法而放弃部分雇佣时，年轻人会被优先考虑。 其次，因为劳动法极大的限制了雇主解雇员工的能力，并提高了解雇的成本，这样当企业需要裁员时，首选途径便是退休等自然减员方式，同时在雇佣新人上变得极其谨慎，因为一旦与某人签订长期雇佣协议，就很难再摆脱他，于是排在年龄队伍后面的青年自然就被挡在了就业市场外面。 上述政策效果在西班牙表现的最清楚，福利和劳动政策的结果让该国失业率在80年代达到20%，政府也意识到严厉的劳动法规让企业不敢轻易雇佣员工，但他们不是纠正之前的错误，而是制订新法规来“鼓励”企业雇佣年轻人，比如允许在签订长期雇佣协议之前经历一个长达三年的试用期。 该法规在起初效果似乎很好，几年内将失业率降低了4、5个百分点，但很快人们发现，新增雇员都是临时工，而且随着时间推移，企业普遍用临时工替换长期雇员，试用期满就换人；到本世纪初，临时工已占西班牙劳动市场1/3，试用期满后获得长期合同的比例只有6%，20岁以下劳动者80%是临时工，甚至30岁员工的临时工比例也高达1/3。 如今，西班牙失业率再次逼近25%，青年失业率已过50%；一番折腾下来，这些法规最显著的效果就是让就业市场发生了两级分化：获得长期职位成为一道极难逾越的门槛，一旦越过就体面光鲜、终身无忧，但大部分年轻人都要在门槛外苦苦等待拼搏煎熬多年，禀赋稍差者便陷于绝望，许多人因此索性绝了上进念头，干脆安心打临工或吃福利。 青年期正是个人为自己寻找竞争舞台和社会位置、形成自我人格的时期，将青年排斥在职业市场之外，不仅剥夺了他们的发展机会，也人为制造了社会不安定因素，假如年轻人无法在职场中找到自己的位置，就会从其他地方找，比如街头帮派、足球流氓、黑社会、甚至恐怖组织；讽刺的是，这些结果居然是宣称以公共福利和社会稳定为宗旨的法规与政策一手制造的，更讽刺的是，一些后发国家正在将它们当作先进经验学习效仿。