含有〈政策〉标签的文章(78)

[译文]复兴中的可再生能源

Europe’s “Green” Power Fueled by Burning Wood
欧洲的“绿色”能源——烧木头

作者:Jamie @ 2017-02-24
译者:eGregius (@eGregius)
校对:龙泉
来源:The American Interest,http://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/02/23/europes-green-power-fueled-by-burning-wood/

Nearly two-thirds of the Europe’s renewable energy comes from burning wood. No, this isn’t some time capsule report from 500 years ago—that’s actually what the European Union is doing to meet its vaunted climate targets. The BBC reports:

欧洲近三分之二的可再生能量来自于木材燃烧——这可不是出自500年前时间胶囊中的记述,而是欧盟为了达到它吹嘘的气候目标所正在做的。据BBC报道:

While much of the discussion has focused on wind and solar power, across Europe the biggest source of green energy is biomass. It supplies around 65% of renewable power – usually electricity generated from burning wood pellets. EU Governments, under pressure to meet tough carbon cutting targets, have been encouraging electricity producers to use more of this form of ener(more...)

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Europe’s “Green” Power Fueled by Burning Wood 欧洲的“绿色”能源——烧木头 作者:Jamie @ 2017-02-24 译者:eGregius (@eGregius) 校对:龙泉 来源:The American Interest,http://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/02/23/europes-green-power-fueled-by-burning-wood/ Nearly two-thirds of the Europe’s renewable energy comes from burning wood. No, this isn’t some time capsule report from 500 years ago—that’s actually what the European Union is doing to meet its vaunted climate targets. The BBC reports: 欧洲近三分之二的可再生能量来自于木材燃烧——这可不是出自500年前时间胶囊中的记述,而是欧盟为了达到它吹嘘的气候目标所正在做的。据BBC报道:
While much of the discussion has focused on wind and solar power, across Europe the biggest source of green energy is biomass. It supplies around 65% of renewable power – usually electricity generated from burning wood pellets. EU Governments, under pressure to meet tough carbon cutting targets, have been encouraging electricity producers to use more of this form of energy by providing substantial subsidies for biomass burning. 尽管有大量的议题集中在风能和太阳能,生物质能仍然是目前整个欧洲最主要的绿色能源。它提供了约65%的可再生能量——以木屑颗粒燃烧发电为主。在严苛的减碳目标压力之下,欧盟各国政府为电力生产商制定了大量的补贴政策以激励他们采用此类能源。
If cutting down trees and burning them doesn’t sound green to you, that’s because, well, it’s not. It only becomes “climate neutral” when you include some clever accounting: if foresters replant a tree for every one they cut down, then from a “life-cycle” perspective, the emissions involved in burning that wood is offset by the carbon captured by the new forests. 如果你觉得伐木烧柴听起来并不那么“绿色”的话,那是因为,它确实不。哪怕你引入一些精明的算计:如果每伐一株木,护林人都会进行再种植,那么从“生命循环”的角度来看,烧柴所导致的碳排放会被新种树木的光合作用抵消,这也仅仅导致“气候中和”。 But a new report from Chatham House scrutinizes that calculus as little more than fuzzy math: 但来自Chatham House的一项最新报道仔细审视了上述算计,发现那仅仅是含糊的数学:
“It doesn’t make sense,” said [Duncan Brack, the report’s author], who is also a former special adviser at the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change. “The fact that forests have grown over the previous 20 or 100 years means they are storing large amounts of carbon, you can’t pretend it doesn’t make an impact on the atmosphere if you cut them down and burn them…You could fix them in wood products or in furniture or you could burn them, but the impact on the climate is very different.” “那说不通,”报道的作者Duncan Brack表示——他同时也是英国能源与气候变化部的前任特别顾问——“无论过去20还是过去100年,森林面积都在增长,这一事实表明森林存储了大量的碳,你没有办法假装砍伐和燃烧它们对气候不会产生任何影响……你可以把这些碳继续固定闸木制品或家具里,你也可以把它们烧掉,但两种做法对气候的影响是很不同的。” Mr Brack says the assumption of carbon neutrality misses out on some crucial issues, including the fact that young trees planted as replacements absorb and store less carbon than the ones that have been burned. Brack先生表示碳中和的设想遗漏了一些重要的问题,包括新种植小树苗的贮碳能力并不及那些被烧掉的树。
This dodgy carbon accounting has come under fire (no pun intended) before, and for good reason: it doesn’t pass the common sense test. Even if you claim that the carbon capturing abilities of felled trees are offset by new forests, you need to consider that those new trees will take decades to reach full maturity—decades in which they won’t be sequestering carbon. Then too, consider that every step of the biomass production process—cutting trees down, trucking them out, machining them into pellets, and then shipping those pellets to the power plants where they’ll be burned—all entail emissions of their own. 这种鸡贼的碳核算方法此前就曾经受舆论炙烤(无意双关),这也理所应当,因为它并不符合常识。即使你声称新种植的木头会替代被伐木贮碳,你也需要考虑到这些替代者需要几十年的时间才能完全成熟——而在这几十年间,它们不怎么会吸碳。此外,想想生物质能生产的各个环节——伐木、运输、加工成颗粒再被运到发电厂(燃烧它们的地方)——都会产生排放。 There’s another big problem here, too. Europe buys much of their wood pellets from outside the bloc, and there’s little in the way of regulatory oversight to ensure felled trees are replanted, opening the door to opportunists looking to make a quick buck. And, as the BBC explains, the vagaries of international carbon accounting are producing some odd numbers for Europe: 还有一个不小的问题。欧洲大量的木屑颗粒采购于欧洲之外,没有多少监管措施去保证被伐木材会有新的树木取代,这为只想着快速捞一笔的机会主义者敞开了大门。正如BBC所解释的,国际间碳核算领域的奇招妙术正在给欧洲制造一些奇怪的数据:
[U]nder UN climate rules, emissions from trees are only counted when they are harvested. However the US, Canada and Russia do not use this method of accounting so if wood pellets are imported from these countries into the EU, which doesn’t count emissions from burning, the carbon simply goes “missing”. 根据联合国制定的气候规则,燃烧木材的排放只在被砍伐时记录一次,然而美国、加拿大和俄罗斯并不采取这样的计算方法,这样一来从这些国家进口到欧盟的木屑颗粒所导致的碳排放便不会被记录,就这么消失了。
With 65 percent of Europe’s renewable energy coming from biomass, you’d think this would be a bigger scandal. Perhaps the Eurocrats in Brussels are unwilling to examine the problem too closely, fearful that an in-depth investigation might kill the region’s best chance at meeting the climate targets it set for itself. Countries in Europe seem to be doubling down on biomass, too, a decision some observers say is “disastrous” for the environment. The longer this goes on, the more apparent it is that the EU cares more about appearing to be green than it does about actually tackling the issues it makes such a big to-do about on the international stage. 若再考虑到欧洲65%的可再生能源由生物质能组成,你会愈发觉得这是一桩丑闻。也许布鲁塞尔的欧盟官员们更愿意与这些调查保持距离,他们害怕深入的调查会让他们达到为自己设定的气候目标的希望落空。同时,欧洲各国在生物质能使用上似乎正在变本加利,一些观察家认为,对生态环境来说,这是“灾难性”的决定。这样的局面持续越久,欧盟的心思就愈发明显——相比应对让他们真正费力的气候问题,他们更在意台面上的“绿色”。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]税法创造的两朵奇葩

The Power of Taxes To Bend Behavior, Often in Unexpected Ways
税收扭曲行为——以你意想不到的方式

时间:2017-02-12
译者:Luis Rightcon
校对:龙泉
来源:http://www.coyoteblog.com,http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/02/the-power-of-taxes-to-bend-behavior-often-in-unexpected-ways.html

Taxes are incredibly powerful things.  Tax something and you will get less of it.  But you might also get more of something you did not expect.  Taxes are the king of generating unintended consequences.  A huge part of human ingenuity (unfortunately) seems to be constantly geared towards evading taxes.  This is one reason I favor completely eliminating the corporate income tax — way too many otherwise productive resources are marshaled towards managing the consequences of these taxes.

税收具有无穷魔力。如果你向某物征税,那么它就会变少。不过你也会得到一些意外收获。税收是非意图后果的制造之王。人类的很大一部分聪明才智看起来都(很不幸的)用在了逃避税收上。这是我为什么倾向于完全废除公司所得税的一个原因。太多生产性资源被配置于对付这些税收造成的后果了。

Last weekend I was in Cabo visiting a few friends and practicing my Spanish. (more...)

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The Power of Taxes To Bend Behavior, Often in Unexpected Ways 税收扭曲行为——以你意想不到的方式 时间:2017-02-12 译者:Luis Rightcon 校对:龙泉 来源:http://www.coyoteblog.com,http://www.coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/2017/02/the-power-of-taxes-to-bend-behavior-often-in-unexpected-ways.html Taxes are incredibly powerful things.  Tax something and you will get less of it.  But you might also get more of something you did not expect.  Taxes are the king of generating unintended consequences.  A huge part of human ingenuity (unfortunately) seems to be constantly geared towards evading taxes.  This is one reason I favor completely eliminating the corporate income tax -- way too many otherwise productive resources are marshaled towards managing the consequences of these taxes. 税收具有无穷魔力。如果你向某物征税,那么它就会变少。不过你也会得到一些意外收获。税收是非意图后果的制造之王。人类的很大一部分聪明才智看起来都(很不幸的)用在了逃避税收上。这是我为什么倾向于完全废除公司所得税的一个原因。太多生产性资源被配置于对付这些税收造成的后果了。 Last weekend I was in Cabo visiting a few friends and practicing my Spanish.  Many of the buildings in town (at least away from the resort areas) look like this: 上周末我去Cabo城【译注:位于墨西哥下加利福尼亚半岛的一座城市】拜访一帮朋友顺便练习西班牙语。许多建筑(至少远离度假村的地方)看起来像这样: DSC_0726 This is a small retail commercial building with going concerns on the first floor (actually finished pretty nicely) but rebar and stuff sticking up from what looks like an unfinished second floor.   This is just one of many, many buildings that look like this.  My friend, who has run a resort in Cabo for decades, asked me what I thought was going on.  I said I assumed it was some sort of third world thing, perhaps a lack of financing that meant the first floor has to operate to generate cash flow for the second floor. 这是一栋一楼正在营业的小商业建筑(实际上一楼做的很棒),但是屋顶朝天戳着的钢筋和其他建筑材料使得二楼看起来没有完成。这只是许许多多同类建筑中的一个。我那位在Cabo开了几十年零售店的朋友问我:你觉得这是怎么回事?。我说我觉得这像一个第三世界的产物,资金短缺使得需要用一楼产生的现金流来支持二楼的工程。 He answered that yes, there was very little financing for small business and real estate development so that sort of thing did happen.  But what was really going on here is tax management.  Until construction is completed, this structure is taxed as raw land rather than as a valuable commercial building.  It was typical practice to get approved for a two story building in the original plans, then stop construction after completing the first floor (which was all that was wanted anyway) and act like the building is still under construction.   Voila (ed: lol, oops) -- ugly building but hefty tax reduction. 他答道,小型企业和小房地产开发商的很少融资,所以这种事情确实会发生。但是在这里,真正的原因是避税。直到完工之前,这个地块都会被当作未开发土地而不是按有价值商业建筑征税。这栋建筑是个典型案例:最初获批时规划了两层,在完成第一层后停工(本来就是这么打算的),这栋建筑就像是仍然在施工一样。啊哈,丑陋但是可以躲掉很多税负的建筑。 For those of you who want to write this off as a third world phenomenon, I will offer a similar example from personal experience.  Some years ago, because I did not have enough value-destroying investments in my life, I bought some raw land in Hawaii.  It is actually in a gated community, about half-built-out, but if you drive past my land you will likely see a cow on it. 假如你认为这是第三世界特有现象,那我再举个相似的例子。若干年前,在我还没做那么多亏本投资之前,我在夏威夷买了一块荒地。它实际上位于一个封闭社区内,大概建好了一半,但是如果你开车经过我那块地,你会发现上边有一头奶牛。 What is a cow doing in a gated community on residential land?  Well, that is the point.  Without the cow, the land gets taxed as residential land.  With the cow, the land gets taxed as ranch land at perhaps a tenth the rate.  The homeowners association helps those of us with raw land to split the cost of the cows. 在建于住宅用地之上的封闭社区里放一头奶牛干啥呢?嗯,这个才是重点。如果没有这头奶牛的话,我这块荒地会被当成住宅用地征税。而有了这头奶牛,这块地则会被当成税率只有住宅用地十分之一的牧场征税。业主协会帮助我们这样的业主分担奶牛养殖的费用。 DSC_0065 Update:  Here are the Hawaiian cows, next to one of my neighbor's front gate.  While they are more attractive than the exposed rebar on the building in Cabo, they serve the same purpose. 更新:这些就是夏威夷的奶牛,旁边是我邻居的前门。虽然这些牛比Cabo城里那些裸露钢筋要好看一点,但是它们的作用却是一样的。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

Obamacare Lite

【2017-03-07】

照这个替代方案,Obamacare被保留了一大半,去掉的主要是当初引发各州诉讼、涉嫌违宪的条款,保留的是迫使许多保险公司退出的负面激励条款,和最初的声势相比,这是很糟糕的结果。

这个『Obamacare Lite』(不是我取的名字)在有些方面好像比原版更糟,所以(1)福利果子派出去就是很难收回来,无论是真果子还是假果子,2)对本届国会共和党的预期需要调低一点了。

 (more...)

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【2017-03-07】 照这个替代方案,Obamacare被保留了一大半,去掉的主要是当初引发各州诉讼、涉嫌违宪的条款,保留的是迫使许多保险公司退出的负面激励条款,和最初的声势相比,这是很糟糕的结果。 这个『Obamacare Lite』(不是我取的名字)在有些方面好像比原版更糟,所以(1)福利果子派出去就是很难收回来,无论是真果子还是假果子,2)对本届国会共和党的预期需要调低一点了。  
border-adjustment

【2017-02-26】

@whigzhou: 越想越觉得border-adjustment是个好东西,最好的地方是它可能会把川普糊弄过去(或者帮川普把他的支持者糊弄过去?),以他(和他的支持者)对经济问题的理解能力,这很可能。 ​​​​

@史搞特:这个border adjustment tax跟关税有啥不同

@whigzhou: 差别是:关税是对跨境交易额外征了一笔税,因而会提高税负,降低贸易额,而BA只是改变了跨境交易的税负分布(more...)

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【2017-02-26】 @whigzhou: 越想越觉得border-adjustment是个好东西,最好的地方是它可能会把川普糊弄过去(或者帮川普把他的支持者糊弄过去?),以他(和他的支持者)对经济问题的理解能力,这很可能。 ​​​​ @史搞特:这个border adjustment tax跟关税有啥不同 @whigzhou: 差别是:关税是对跨境交易额外征了一笔税,因而会提高税负,降低贸易额,而BA只是改变了跨境交易的税负分布,后者对贸易的影响会被汇率杠杆重新撬回来,最终效果只是提高了美元币值,总体上的贸易均衡位置不会改变。 @whigzhou: BA表面上看起来好像会减少美国的贸易逆差,其实不会,因为贸易逆差只跟境外对美元资产的投资需求有关,和其他因素统统无关,只要这一需求不变,逆差仍会延续,所有其他因素造成的影响都会被汇率杠杆撬回来。  
分配效应

【2017-02-23】

@研二公知苗 不少人在讲移民问题时,都忽略社会,文化和政治成本,只讲纯经济收益。讲经济收益时,理论上,无论是受高等教育的合法移民还是从事低端工作的非法移民带来的纯经济收益理论上都是正的。但是这种收益不是一些人描绘的帕累托改进。相反,这种收益实际上带有很强的再分配性质。尤其是考虑到非法移民增加了低端工作岗位的供给,压低了低端岗位的工资,实际上是一种带有劫贫济富性质的再分配。

@whigzhou: 你说的是分配效应,distributive effec(more...)

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【2017-02-23】 @研二公知苗 不少人在讲移民问题时,都忽略社会,文化和政治成本,只讲纯经济收益。讲经济收益时,理论上,无论是受高等教育的合法移民还是从事低端工作的非法移民带来的纯经济收益理论上都是正的。但是这种收益不是一些人描绘的帕累托改进。相反,这种收益实际上带有很强的再分配性质。尤其是考虑到非法移民增加了低端工作岗位的供给,压低了低端岗位的工资,实际上是一种带有劫贫济富性质的再分配。 @whigzhou: 你说的是分配效应,distributive effect,不是再分配,后面这个词要难听得多 @whigzhou: 贸易开放、技术进步、资源发现,都有很强的分配效应,但不是再分配,后者是对由市场机制分配的要素报酬通过非市场手段进行人际转移 @whigzhou: 制度和政策上无视分配效应,是自由市场原则的要点之一,否则贸易保护、卢德分子、行会特权、工会垄断,就都有了位置 @研二公知苗: 但现实中,自由市场的运行还是需要政治上的保障。对受损者的补偿就是为了使得自由市场的基本原则在政治上具有可持续性。 @whigzhou: 妥协让步当然可以,但让步不能通过修改自己的是非观来进行,『你欠我100,还不起?好吧,那就免掉你30』vs『你欠我100,还不起?好吧,那就算你只借了70』  
2016

说说川普吧。平时懒得说这些事情,过年集中说几句。

先说好的。

【亮点】

从已报道的人事安排看,川普的国内政策看起来不错,至少会比希拉里好很多,特别是教育部、劳工部、环保局、卫生部的人选,是其中几大亮点。

从这些人选,加上共和党在国会的多数,有几项前景比较肯定:

1)联邦最低工资不会提高,大好事;

2)势头正盛的特许学校不会受阻挠;

3)暖球党在联邦政府内将全面失势,气候与环境相关的管制会有松动,甚至许多预算和职位会被取消;

4)页岩革命的势头将不会在联邦层面受阻挠,此事的国际后果比国内后果意义更大;

【医保】

川普说要废Obamacare,但具体怎么弄不太明确,不过他挑了个重量级共和党国会大佬掌管卫生部,此人有医生背景,且此前在医保案上投入很多,提了个替代方案,貌似这事情会是川普的一个政策重点。

废Obamacare自然是好事,不过替代方案会怎么样很难说,推不推得动也大为可疑。

医保是个大坑,消耗政治资源极多,收获却很渺茫,弄不好的话,川普的势头和共和党团结很可能都被它拖垮。

【移民】

边境控制会加强,难民配额会减少甚至取消,这是好事。

不过,对于造成问题的拉丁移民,移民动力比司法控制的影响重要得多,而实际上,拉丁移民的动力近些年正在削弱,所以这件事情上川普其实没有多大发挥余地。

同时,他可能去削减技术移民,那是坏事,而且不像非法移民难控制,削减合法移民配额会有立竿见影的效果。

两类移民有着完全不同的选择机制,限制后一类属于自残。

【大法官】

稍乐观,川普提名的大法官肯定比奥巴马和希拉里的好,但也不必期望太高,我稍稍乐观是因为我觉得他可能对这事情不太感兴趣,所以会听从共和党主流意见。

【金融管制】

相比环境方面的管制,金融管制的后果严重的多,比如Sarbanes-OxleyDodd-Frank,但从川普的民粹倾向和他对待企业的态度看,不太能指望他在放松金融管制方面有多大作为。

【政治正确】

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说说川普吧。平时懒得说这些事情,过年集中说几句。 先说好的。 【亮点】 从已报道的人事安排看,川普的国内政策看起来不错,至少会比希拉里好很多,特别是教育部、劳工部、环保局、卫生部的人选,是其中几大亮点。 从这些人选,加上共和党在国会的多数,有几项前景比较肯定: 1)联邦最低工资不会提高,大好事; 2)势头正盛的特许学校不会受阻挠; 3)暖球党在联邦政府内将全面失势,气候与环境相关的管制会有松动,甚至许多预算和职位会被取消; 4)页岩革命的势头将不会在联邦层面受阻挠,此事的国际后果比国内后果意义更大; 【医保】 川普说要废[[Obamacare]],但具体怎么弄不太明确,不过他挑了个重量级共和党国会大佬掌管卫生部,此人有医生背景,且此前在医保案上投入很多,提了个替代方案,貌似这事情会是川普的一个政策重点。 废Obamacare自然是好事,不过替代方案会怎么样很难说,推不推得动也大为可疑。 医保是个大坑,消耗政治资源极多,收获却很渺茫,弄不好的话,川普的势头和共和党团结很可能都被它拖垮。 【移民】 边境控制会加强,难民配额会减少甚至取消,这是好事。 不过,对于造成问题的拉丁移民,移民动力比司法控制的影响重要得多,而实际上,拉丁移民的动力近些年正在削弱,所以这件事情上川普其实没有多大发挥余地。 同时,他可能去削减技术移民,那是坏事,而且不像非法移民难控制,削减合法移民配额会有立竿见影的效果。 两类移民有着完全不同的选择机制,限制后一类属于自残。 【大法官】 稍乐观,川普提名的大法官肯定比奥巴马和希拉里的好,但也不必期望太高,我稍稍乐观是因为我觉得他可能对这事情不太感兴趣,所以会听从共和党主流意见。 【金融管制】 相比环境方面的管制,金融管制的后果严重的多,比如Sarbanes-OxleyDodd-Frank,但从川普的民粹倾向和他对待企业的态度看,不太能指望他在放松金融管制方面有多大作为。 【政治正确】 川普带来的最好前景可能是政治正确紧箍咒的打破,许多人们敢怒不敢言的烂事将得到遏制,一些蒙尘已久的常识正义得以恢复,西方传统价值观有机会再次扬眉吐气。   再说坏的。 【宪政传统】 川普不是个尊重宪法和宪政传统的人,远远不是,在这一点上,除罗斯福外,我想不出比他表现更差的美国总统,其他政客藐视宪法还会偷偷摸摸遮遮掩掩,他连遮掩都不会,这是他最令我反感的地方。 我曾反复说过,宪法≠《宪法》,复制宪法文本、议事程序、政府结构很容易,但达致宪政均衡却很难,既有的均衡依靠参与各方对传统的尊重以及对违背传统之后果的预期。均衡一旦打破很难恢复,川普很可能是个破坏者。 以候选人身份公然威胁媒体,勒令制造企业回迁,暗示不接受选举结果……,有些恶劣做法(第三项尤其恶劣)虽不会有短期后果,但会改变人们的预期——原来这么没下限的事情也是可以被接受的啊? 【经济政策】 川普人选中最烂的一个就是[[Peter Navarro]],此人要么是蠢蛋,要么是哗众取宠的投机分子,对Navarro的青睐最清楚的展示了川普对经济问题的理解力。 【基础设施建设】 蠢。暴露了骨子里的国家干预主义。 【跨国公司】 现在还不清楚川普会如何拿跨国公司下手,如果贸易保护法案通不过或者不起作用,会不会从其他方面下阴招?比如海外利润,避税问题,EB5配额,其他管制陷阱?如果川普果真把制造业回归当成重点,跨国公司估计没好日子过。 【贸易保护】 从专门为Navarro设立新机构(National Trade Council)这个动作看,川普的保护主义看来不会是空话了。 废[[NAFTA]]的后果之一将是正在退潮的墨西哥移民猛增,这我之前说过。 假如贸易保护是专门用来打击中国的,那倒还说得过去,但必须明白这是为打击中国而付出的代价,不是收益,判断他是否明白这一点,可以看他是否为此而从其他方面寻求弥补,比如向盟友和潜在盟友提供更好的贸易条件,从川普对待TPP的态度看,不太可能。 乐观点是,国会大概不会同意将关税提至两位数,大概也不会废NAFTA和WTO,而川普能做的主要是停止推动更多自由贸易协定,在行政分支的权限内展开贸易战,设置一个个双边壁垒,推动贸易相关的管制,果若如此,其伤害将小于Smoot-Hawley法案。 【西方联盟】 川普可能做出的最坏事情将在外交方面,具体说就是:挫伤盟友,毁掉联盟。 美国总统在内政上推动能力有限,尤其是那些利益牵扯广泛的事情(比如税收、医保和最低工资),但在国际事务上行动能力要强得多,而这恰恰是川普最危险的地方。 打击中国,强挺以色列,踢开联合国,这些都很好,问题是,毁掉西方联盟这一件事,足以抵消其他全部好处百倍不止。 停掉TPP的前景已经挫伤了不少亚太盟友,未来假如在南海问题上甩手,西方联盟的这条腿就折了。 从川普对待普京的态度看,他很可能抛弃东欧和GUAM的盟友(后者实际上已经破裂了)。 最重要也最令人痛惜的被挫伤者或许将是英国,本来,英国退欧是强化盎格鲁联盟并以此为基础重建世界秩序的一次良机,但川普极可能毁掉这个机会,在这一点上他比希拉里更指望不上。 【总结】 从截止目前的表现看,川普将带来许多好东西,但不幸的是,他在最重要问题上极可能犯的错误,将让这些好处全部黯然失色。 当然,也可能我看错了,他或许不会犯下我所预料的错误,他过去的姿态或许只是一种姿态,果若如此,将是美国之幸,文明之幸。 所以我在此设定一个开关:假如未来的进展证明他的贸易保护政策仅仅用来打击文明的敌人,假如他积极拥抱退欧后的英国,不抛弃盟友,不牺牲其利益,不将他们推向敌人怀抱,我会立即黑转粉,并满心喜悦的承认自己看错了。  
[译文]一所杰出黑人中学的毁灭

Dunbar High School After 100 Years
百年后的Dunbar 高中

作者:Thomas Sowell @ 2016-10-04
译者:鳗鱼禅(@鳗鱼禅)
校对:龙泉(@L_Stellar)
来源:RealClearPolitics,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/04/dunbar_high_school_after_100_years_131956.html

One hundred years ago, on October 2, 1916, a new public high school building for black youngsters was opened in Washington, D.C. and named for black poet Paul Laurence Dunbar. Its history is a story inspiring in many ways and appalling in many other ways.

一百年前,1916年10月2日,一座为年轻黑人而设的公立高中教学楼在华盛顿特区投入使用。这座教学楼以非洲诗人 Paul Laurence Dunbar 的姓氏命名,它的历史是个令人既振奋又惊骇的故事。

< (more...)
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Dunbar High School After 100 Years 百年后的Dunbar 高中 作者:Thomas Sowell @ 2016-10-04 译者:鳗鱼禅(@鳗鱼禅) 校对:龙泉(@L_Stellar) 来源:RealClearPolitics,http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/10/04/dunbar_high_school_after_100_years_131956.html One hundred years ago, on October 2, 1916, a new public high school building for black youngsters was opened in Washington, D.C. and named for black poet Paul Laurence Dunbar. Its history is a story inspiring in many ways and appalling in many other ways. 一百年前,1916年10月2日,一座为年轻黑人而设的公立高中教学楼在华盛顿特区投入使用。这座教学楼以非洲诗人 Paul Laurence Dunbar 的姓氏命名,它的历史是个令人既振奋又惊骇的故事。 Prior to 1916, the same high school had existed under other names, housed in other buildings -- and with a remarkable academic record. 在1916年前,这所高中以其它名字运营,在另外的建筑中教学,教学成果显著。 In 1899, when it was called "the M Street School," a test was given in Washington's four academic public high schools, three white and one black. The black high school scored higher than two of the three white high schools. Today, it would be considered Utopian even to set that as a goal, much less expect to see it happen. 1899年,当时学校还叫“ M 街学校”,华盛顿特区四所公立高中进行学业测试,三所白人高中,一所黑人高中。黑人高中的成绩高于其中两所白人高中。如今,人们会认为设立这样的目标本身就是做白日梦,更别说指望其变为现实。 The M Street School had neither of two so-called "prerequisites" for quality education. There was no "diversity." It was an all-black school from its beginning, and on through its life as a high quality institution under the name Dunbar High School. 优质教育所需的两项所谓“前提条件”,M街学校通通没有。没有“多样性”。一开始就是全黑人学校,直到保持高质量教学水平的Dunbar高中时期,依然如此。 But its days as a high quality institution ended abruptly in the middle of the 1950s. After that, it became just another failing ghetto school. 然而,这首优质教学之歌在1950年代中期戛然而止。之后,Dunbar 高中沦为又一所溃败的贫民窟学校。 The other so-called "prerequisite" that the M Street School lacked was an adequate building. Its student body was 50 percent larger than the building's capacity, a fact that led eventually to the new Dunbar High School building. But its students excelled even in their overcrowded building. 另一项所谓的“前提条件”——一座适宜教学的大楼——M街学校也没有。全校学生数量超过建筑物设计容纳人数50%,因此才兴建新的Dunbar高中教学楼。尽管如此,学生成绩依然优秀。 Some students at the M Street School began going to some of the leading colleges in the country in the late 19th century. The first of its graduates to go to Harvard did so in 1903. Over the years from 1892 to 1954, thirty-four of the graduates from the M Street School and Dunbar went on to Amherst. 在19世纪晚期,M街学校开始有学生考上国内顶尖大学。1903年,该校首次有学生考入哈佛大学。1892至1954年间,M街学校和Dunbar高中合共有34名毕业生考入 Amherst 学院【译注:位于马萨诸塞州的一所精英男校】 Of these, 74 percent graduated from Amherst and 28 percent of these graduates were Phi Beta Kappas. Other graduates from M Street High School and Dunbar became Phi Beta Kappas at Harvard, Yale, Dartmouth and other elite institutions. 这些学生中,74%顺利从Amherst 学院毕业,其中28%毕业生为最高荣誉优等生。其他M街学校和Dunbar 高中的一些毕业生,在哈佛、耶鲁、达特茅斯和其它精英院校成为最高荣誉优等生。 Graduates of this same high school pioneered as the first black in many places. These included the first black man to graduate from Annapolis, the first black woman to receive a Ph.D. from an American institution, the first black federal judge, the first black general, the first black Cabinet member and, among other notables, a doctor who became internationally renowned for his pioneering work in developing the use of blood plasma. 这一所高中的毕业生在多个领域都是首次取得杰出成就的黑人。包括第一名从美国海军学院毕业的黑人男生,第一名从美国高等院校获得博士学位的黑人女性,第一名黑人联邦法官,第一名黑人将军,第一名黑人内阁成员。在众多取得不凡成就的黑人中,特别值得一提的是,在保存血浆以供使用方面做出开拓性工作的一名享誉全球的黑人医生【译注:Charles Drew】 How could all of this come to an abrupt end in the 1950s? Like many other disasters, it began with good intentions and arbitrary assumptions. 这一切怎么会在1950年代突然完结?跟很多灾难一样,一切以善意和武断的假设前提开始。 When Chief Justice Earl Warren declared in the landmark 1954 case of "Brown v. Board of Education" that racially separate schools were "inherently unequal," Dunbar High School was a living refutation of that assumption. And it was within walking distance of the Supreme Court. 1954年里程碑式的“ 布朗诉教育委员会” 一案宣判,Earl Warren大法官代表的多数判词称种族隔离的学校‘ 在本性上就是不平等的’,Dunbar高中是对这一假设前提活生生的反驳。学校就位于最高法院的步行距离之内。 A higher percentage of Dunbar graduates went on to college than the percentage at any white public high school in Washington. But what do facts matter when there is heady rhetoric and crusading zeal? Dunbar高中毕业生考入大学的比例高于华盛顿特区内任何一所白人公立高中。但在令人头脑发热的修辞和运动式的热情面前,事实又有什么用呢? There is no question that racially segregated schools in the South provided an inadequate education for blacks. But the assumption that racial "integration" was the answer led to years of racial polarization and turmoil over busing, with little, if any, educational improvement. 毋庸置疑,南部各州的种族隔离学校未能为黑人提供足够的教育。但种族“融合”才是解决之道的假设导致连年的种族极化和骚乱,用几近于无的教育成果提升来代替种族隔离的校巴。 For Washington, the end of racial segregation led to a political compromise, in which all schools became neighborhood schools. Dunbar, which had been accepting outstanding black students from anywhere in the city, could now accept only students from the rough ghetto neighborhood in which it was located. 对华盛顿特区而言,种族隔离的结束导致一项政治让步。所有学校都转为就近入学的学区学校。Dunbar 高中此前一直在全市范围内招收学业突出的黑人学生,现在只能从学校周边的贫民窟社区招收学生。 Virtually overnight, Dunbar became a typical ghetto school. As unmotivated, unruly and disruptive students flooded in, Dunbar teachers began moving out and many retired. More than 80 years of academic excellence simply vanished into thin air. 几乎一夜之间,Dunbar高中变为一所典型的贫民窟学校。没有学习动力、没有规矩和爱捣蛋的学生涌入学校后,原先的教师开始离开、退休。80多年的教学成果随风飘逝。 Nobody, black or white, mounted any serious opposition. "Integration" was the cry of the moment, and it drowned out everything else. That is what happens in politics. 不论黑人或白人,没有人提出任何严肃的反对意见。“融合”是当红的口号,让其它都沉没于海底。这就是政治领域正在发生的事情。 Today, there is a new Dunbar High School building, costing more than $100 million. But its graduates go on to college at only about half the rate of Dunbar graduates in earlier and poorer times. Politics can deliver costly "favors," even when it cannot deliver quality education. 如今,Dunbar新高中教学楼耗资超过1亿美元。但学校毕业生的大学入学率仅为早期贫穷世代的一半。哪怕政治无法提供优质的教育,一样可以提供昂贵的“惠泽”。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

长了脚的资产

【2016-09-08】

@海德沙龙: 《为何影视业拿了这么多税务补贴? ​​​​》 好莱坞无论如何都算不上贫困户或弱势群体,但奇特的是,美国各州争相为影视制片商提供税务补贴,以说服他们在本州拍摄外景,相互攀比之下,补贴额越来越高,据说这可以提升当地旅游业,可实际上并没有任何经验证据支持这一点,那么这事情究竟为何会发生呢?

@whigzhou: 说明一个小道理:长了脚的资产/生意很难征到税

@海德沙龙: 嗯,我们一篇旧译文《农作物类型如何影(more...)

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【2016-09-08】 @海德沙龙: 《为何影视业拿了这么多税务补贴? ​​​​》 好莱坞无论如何都算不上贫困户或弱势群体,但奇特的是,美国各州争相为影视制片商提供税务补贴,以说服他们在本州拍摄外景,相互攀比之下,补贴额越来越高,据说这可以提升当地旅游业,可实际上并没有任何经验证据支持这一点,那么这事情究竟为何会发生呢? @whigzhou: 说明一个小道理:长了脚的资产/生意很难征到税 @海德沙龙: 嗯,我们一篇旧译文《农作物类型如何影响制度进化》中有个概念叫『可收夺性(appropriability)』,说的也是这个道理 @whigzhou: 嗯嗯,James Scott写了一整本书《逃避统治的艺术》讲的全是这个道理~  
[译文]好莱坞如何改编故事

好莱坞的误导历史
Hollywood’s misleading history

作者:Peter J. Wallison @ 2016-2-29
译者:Luis Rightcon(@Rightcon)
校对:Tankman
来源:American Enterprise Institute,http://www.aei.org/publication/hollywoods-misleading-history/

The film called The Big Short differs in a significant way from the book of the same name on which it is based, and this difference reveals how the film-makers made it more politically charged in order to blame Wall S(more...)

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好莱坞的误导历史 Hollywood’s misleading history 作者:Peter J. Wallison @ 2016-2-29 译者:Luis Rightcon(@Rightcon) 校对:Tankman 来源:American Enterprise Institute,http://www.aei.org/publication/hollywoods-misleading-history/ The film called The Big Short differs in a significant way from the book of the same name on which it is based, and this difference reveals how the film-makers made it more politically charged in order to blame Wall Street for the financial crisis. 《大空头》这部电影与其同名报告文学在历史叙事上有着很明显的不同,而且这一差异揭示了电影制作者是如何使这部影片更充满政治意味,从而把金融危机归咎于华尔街。 In the book, the Wall Street experts who were approached to bet against the housing market almost all refused. 在那本书中,几乎所有被问及是否做空房产市场的华尔街专家们都给出了否定答案。 This showed something that was true, and for that reason interesting: that even people on Wall Street, always on the lookout for a money-making opportunity, could not believe the housing market was in any danger of collapse. In the film, this was demonstrated by the skepticism of the FrontPoint group that was initially approached as investors, as well as the eagerness of the financial firms such as Goldman Sachs and others to take the other side of the bet against the housing market. 这显示了一些有趣的事实,那就是,即使是成天盯着捞钱机会的华尔街精英也无法相信(当时的)房市会有任何崩溃的风险。而在电影中,这被演绎成投资者FrontPoint集团的怀疑立场,以及像高盛集团那样的金融机构们对于做多房地产市场的渴望。 In the book, the tension in the narrative was created when the book’s protagonists — the first people to bet against the housing market — had persuaded their investors to place bets against the housing market many months before the coming failures actually became evident. As a result, in the book their financial backers became impatient. The predictions of a collapse did not happen fast enough, and they sought to withdraw their funds. Some of this impatience was present in the film, but the context was changed. 在书中,整个故事的紧张之处体现在主人公——作为第一个开始做空房地产市场的人——在金融海啸变成现实之前很多个月,就说服了他们的投资者来做空房市。结果,他们的财务支持者们变得不耐烦了,预言中的崩塌没有足够快的发生,于是他们计划撤资。电影中部分展现了这一不耐烦的情节,然而其情境却被改写了。 In the film, the collapse actually occurred, but the there was no movement in the market prices of the privately-issued mortgage-backed securities or the credit default swaps that were used to bet against them. This was attributed in the film to a conspiracy among the big banks on Wall Street: they somehow kept the market from moving against them while they sold off their holdings to less informed buyers. 在影片中,房产市场的崩溃如期发生了,但是私下发行的MBS(住房抵押贷款证券)和用来做空他们的CDS(信用违约掉期)的市场价格并没有变化。这在影片中被归结于华尔街上大银行的共谋:他们以某种方式稳定住了市场,直到把自己持有的资产卖给那些知情较少的买家。 It should be obvious that a conspiracy like this is impossible. There are too many buyers and sellers in the financial markets for something like the price of mortgage-backed securities or credit defaults swaps to be rigged. In reality, as soon as an index of housing defaults began to signal danger, investors fled the market. 显然像这样的阴谋是不可能成功的。在金融市场像CDS和MBS这类金融工具所涉及到的买家和卖家实在是太多了,以至于其价格很难被操纵。事实上,一旦房贷违约的指数开始发出危险信号,投资者马上就逃离了这个市场。 If the film had simply followed the book, it would have been a tale about how some very smart and gutsy traders outwitted Wall Street and faced down investors who had lost faith in them to win big in the end. It could have been an uplifting story that would have shone an unflattering light on the supposedly smart guys on Wall Street. 如果该影片只是简单地遵循同名报告文学的叙事,那将只会是一个某些既聪明绝顶又胆大包天的交易员以其聪明才智胜过华尔街,以及让那些对他们失去信心的投资者羞愧万分,从而在最后赢得巨额回报的故事。这或许会成为一个真实报道华尔街上的聪明伙计的励志故事。 But that was not enough for Hollywood. In Hollywood’s telling, the bad guys had to be villains, not just dumb. So the film-makers concocted a plot in which Wall Street successfully kept the market from moving against them in order to save themselves. 但这对好莱坞来说可远远不够。在好莱坞的通常叙事中,坏家伙们必须是十足的恶棍,而不是随便冒出来的草包。所以电影制作人们编造了一个情节:为了拯救自身,华尔街成功阻止了不利于自身的市场运动。 In reality, of course, Wall Street was not saved. Many of the major firms got into serious trouble when the housing bubble collapsed. Several failed and others suffered major losses. 当然,实际上华尔街并没有被拯救。房产泡沫崩溃时很多主要金融机构陷入了严重的困境。有一些破产了,剩下的也遭受到了极其严重的损失。 The lesson here is to approach Hollywood’s versions of real life events with caution. They can be good entertainment, but badly misleading history. 这里的教训是要对好莱坞版本的现实事件保持警惕。他们可以是很好的娱乐,但同时可能会严重的误导历史。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]为何影视业拿了这么多税务补贴?

No Matter Who Wins at the Oscars, Taxpayers Lose on Film Subsidies
不管奥斯卡花落谁家,纳税人在电影补贴上都是输

作者:Jared Meyer @ 2016-02-26
译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:辉格(@whigzhou)
来源:Reason ,http://reason.com/archives/2016/02/26/no-matter-who-wins-at-the-oscars-taxpaye

Big screen and small get big benefits at taxpayer expense.
纳税人埋单,荧屏业大获其利

Sunday night brings the 89th Academy Awards, and many are wondering what film will take home the Oscar for Best Picture. No matter what film wins, one group of people should be thanked during the acceptance speech—taxpayers.

本周日将举办第89届奥斯卡金像奖,许多人都在猜测最佳影片将会花落谁家。但不管哪部影片得奖,获奖感言里都应该感谢一个群体:纳税人。

Film is a heavily subsidized industry, and the majority of states have tax incentive programs that lower the cost of production. These tax credits are determined by production costs, not profits, and many credits are transferrable or refundable. When a film’s tax liabilities are below its allotted refundable credits, taxpayers end up directly paying film companies the difference.

电影行业得到的补贴极大,大部分州都设置有税收激励计划,以降低制片成本。这类税收抵免额度由制片成本而非影片收益决定,而且其中许多都可以转移或补差【译注:指如果抵免额高于应税额,纳税人不但不用纳税,还能倒拿差额】。如果一部影片的应税额低于它所得的可补差抵免额,那就相当于纳税人直接向电影公司支付差额。

The Big Short, one of this year’s nominees, cost $28 million to produce and was filmed in California, Nevada, and Louisiana. All three states have film tax credit programs, but Louisiana’s 40 percent partially-transferable credit is the largest. The film’s producers made a movie about Wall Street greed, but they clearly had no problem making taxpayers pay for their production costs.

今年获提名的影片《大空头》制作成本为2800万,在加利福尼亚、内华达和路易斯安那三地拍摄。三个州都有电影业税收抵免计划,不过,路易斯安那的40%部分可转移税收抵免仍属其中翘楚。制片人拍摄了一部讲述华尔街之贪婪的电影,但在让纳税人为其制片成本埋单的时候,他们显然心安理得。

New York’s fully-refundable 30 percent film tax credit is the most generous in the nation, with an annual limit of $420 millionBrooklyn and Bridge of Spie(more...)

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No Matter Who Wins at the Oscars, Taxpayers Lose on Film Subsidies 不管奥斯卡花落谁家,纳税人在电影补贴上都是输 作者:Jared Meyer @ 2016-02-26 译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 校对:辉格(@whigzhou) 来源:Reason ,http://reason.com/archives/2016/02/26/no-matter-who-wins-at-the-oscars-taxpaye Big screen and small get big benefits at taxpayer expense. 纳税人埋单,荧屏业大获其利 Sunday night brings the 89th Academy Awards, and many are wondering what film will take home the Oscar for Best Picture. No matter what film wins, one group of people should be thanked during the acceptance speech—taxpayers. 本周日将举办第89届奥斯卡金像奖,许多人都在猜测最佳影片将会花落谁家。但不管哪部影片得奖,获奖感言里都应该感谢一个群体:纳税人。 Film is a heavily subsidized industry, and the majority of states have tax incentive programs that lower the cost of production. These tax credits are determined by production costs, not profits, and many credits are transferrable or refundable. When a film’s tax liabilities are below its allotted refundable credits, taxpayers end up directly paying film companies the difference. 电影行业得到的补贴极大,大部分州都设置有税收激励计划,以降低制片成本。这类税收抵免额度由制片成本而非影片收益决定,而且其中许多都可以转移或补差【译注:指如果抵免额高于应税额,纳税人不但不用纳税,还能倒拿差额】。如果一部影片的应税额低于它所得的可补差抵免额,那就相当于纳税人直接向电影公司支付差额。 The Big Short, one of this year’s nominees, cost $28 million to produce and was filmed in California, Nevada, and Louisiana. All three states have film tax credit programs, but Louisiana’s 40 percent partially-transferable credit is the largest. The film's producers made a movie about Wall Street greed, but they clearly had no problem making taxpayers pay for their production costs. 今年获提名的影片《大空头》制作成本为2800万,在加利福尼亚、内华达和路易斯安那三地拍摄。三个州都有电影业税收抵免计划,不过,路易斯安那的40%部分可转移税收抵免仍属其中翘楚。制片人拍摄了一部讲述华尔街之贪婪的电影,但在让纳税人为其制片成本埋单的时候,他们显然心安理得。 New York’s fully-refundable 30 percent film tax credit is the most generous in the nation, with an annual limit of $420 millionBrooklyn and Bridge of Spies, two of this year’s nominees, were filmed in New York, and their budgets were $12 million and $40 million, respectively. 要论慷慨,全国之最当数纽约的30%全额可补差电影业税收抵免,每年最高限额是4.2亿。本年度有两部提名电影在纽约拍摄,《布鲁克林》和《间谍之桥》,费用分别达到1200万和4000万。 States are starting to realize that the economic benefits of film tax credits are pure fantasy, like some movie plots. In 2012, 40 states offered tax incentives, at a total cost of $1.4 billion, but since then some states have decided that maintaining roads, funding schools, staffing police departments, and letting residents keep more income are better uses of funds. Since last year’s Oscars, Alaska, Michigan, and Illinois all ended their film tax credit programs. (See my testimony for the Alaska Senate on the false promise of film tax credits here). 许多州已经开始意识到,电影业税收抵免的经济利好效应就跟某些电影情节一样纯属空想。2012年,有40个州提供此类税收激励,总共耗费14亿。但自此以后,一些州已经决定,维护公路、资助学校、充实警力以及让居民手中存留更多收入才是对资金的更好使用。上届奥斯卡以来,阿拉斯加、密歇根和伊利诺伊等州都已经终止了电影业税收抵免计划。(可参考我在阿拉斯加州议会上就电影业税收抵免之虚假承诺所做的证言) In contrast, California tripled its non-refundable film tax credit budget to $330 million in an effort to lure more film production back to Hollywood. 加利福尼亚则反其道行之,为吸引更多影片返回好莱坞制作,该州已经将其用于不可补差电影业税收抵免的预算增加了三倍,达到3.3亿。 It is not only Oscar-nominated movies that receive sweetheart tax deals. Television shows, including HBO’s VEEP and Netflix’s House of Cards, are two examples. 获得这种甜蜜的减税待遇的并不是只有奥斯卡提名影片。电视剧也是如此,HBO的《副总统》和Netflix的《纸牌屋》就是其中两个例子。 When Maryland did not increase its fully-refundable film tax incentive program in 2014, Netflix executives went all Frank Underwood on former governor Martin O’Malley and threatened to leave the state. Political pressure, including a Kevin Spacey visit to Annapolis, convinced Maryland to raid other funds in order to double its film tax credit budget to $15 million. This does not include the $4 million in annual lost revenue from sales tax exemptions for film production companies. 2014年,在马里兰州尚未在其全额可补差电影业税收激励计划上增加力度之际,Netflix的总监们就在前任州长Martin O’Malley面前扮演“弗兰克·安德伍德”(译注:《纸牌屋》主角,马基雅维利式政客),并且威胁要撤离该州。凯文·史派西(译注:安德伍德的扮演者)到访安纳波利斯,在诸如此类的政治压力之下,马里兰州将其电影业税收抵免预算增加一倍,达到1500万,为此砍掉了许多其他方面的资金。这还没把电影制片公司所享受的营业税免征额包含在内,每年因此少征的税收可是有400万。 Even though film tax credits are often sold as a way to help small producers, 98 percent of Maryland’s film tax credit budget over the last three years has been taken up by House of Cards and VEEP. The increased tourism argument that film tax credit proponents constantly use clearly does not apply for two shows that are set in Washington, D.C. Similarly, no one thinks of Louisiana while they are watching The Big Short. 尽管电影业税收抵免经常顶着帮助小制片公司的名头做游说,但在过去三年中,马里兰州98%的电影税收抵免款都进了《纸牌屋》和《副总统》的兜里。电影业税收抵免的鼓吹者们经常使用的抵免带动旅游业的论证,显然在这里也并不适用,因为两部剧的背景都设定在华盛顿特区。同样,在观看《大空头》时,根本没人会想起路易斯安那州。 Maryland’s handouts were still not enough to convince HBO executives to keep filming VEEP in Maryland. VEEP’s production moved to California after the state offered the show a $6.5 million tax credit. 即便如此,马里兰州的馈赠仍然不足以说服HBO的总监们继续在该州拍摄《副总统》。该片将搬到加利福利亚制作,因为加州将为该剧提供650万的税收抵免。 The Maryland Department of Legislative Services found that the state’s film tax incentive program only returns 6 cents for every dollar spent. While this return is particularly poor, the best return in any state is still less than 30 cents on the dollar. 马里兰州立法服务部发现,该州的电影业税收激励计划每花掉1美元,只能收回6美分。这么低的回报当然很极端,但各州回报表现最好的也仍然不到每美元30美分。 Jobs in the film industry are highly skilled and mobile, which means they do not create lasting economic benefits. If another state rolls out an even more generous tax credit, film production can simply pack up and leave for another soundstage. States that decide to shower the film industry with taxpayer funds are in a race to the bottom, as no credit is high enough to satisfy Hollywood executives. 电影行业所提供的工作都是技术岗位,且流动性很高,这就意味着该行业并不能创造持久的经济效益。如果另外一个州推出了更为慷慨的税收抵免计划,电影制片商只需要打个包,就能换个摄影棚。各州如果决心花纳税人的钱来馈赠电影行业,它们就是加入了一场竞相逐底的比赛,因为抵免额度无论多高都无法满足好莱坞的总监们。 Maryland’s experience of losing film productions and wasting taxpayer dollars on its program is not unique. Every independent study of film tax credits have found that the programs come nowhere close to paying for themselves. But this reality has not stopped proponents from making fanciful predictions. The Maryland Film Industry Coalition—a group dedicated to promoting the film industry—claims that each dollar in tax credits leads to $1.03 in tax revenue. 马里兰州遭制片公司抛弃、在补贴计划上浪费纳税人税金的上述经历并不罕见。所有关于电影业税收减免的独立研究都已发现,各种补贴计划均远远无法实现收支平衡。但这一事实并没能阻止其鼓吹者提出各种白日梦般的预测。“马里兰州电影行业联盟”——一个旨在促进电影行业发展的组织——宣称,税收抵免每花1美元都能带来1.03美元的税收。 The Tax Foundation’s Joseph Henchman points out that if these fanciful projections were taken seriously, the United States could pay off its national debt by simply giving the film industry $1 trillion. “税务基金会”的Joseph Henchman指出,如果我们拿这种白日梦似的测算当真,那么美国只需要给电影行业派送1万亿,就能偿清它的全部国债了。 One study that was funded by the Motion Picture Association of American assumes that every dollar in tax credits creates $17.75 in economic activity, which leads to $1.88 in new tax revenue for the state. These claims are less realistic than the science-fiction films the credits support. 由“美国电影协会”赞助实施的一项研究提出,税收抵免每花掉1美元,就能创造出17.75美元的经济活动,而这又会为所在州形成1.88美元的新税收收入。这类说法比那些获得税收抵免补贴的科幻电影还要不切实际一些。 Film tax credit programs do not pay for themselves. They do not create long-term jobs, nor do they have tourism benefits. All film tax incentives do is provide opportunities for politicians to rub elbows with movie stars. 电影业税收抵免计划无法实现收支平衡。他们无法创造长期岗位,也不会带来旅游收益。电影业税收激励所能做的,无非是给政客们提供了和电影明星亲密往来的机会。 With the hundreds of millions of dollars that taxpayers gift the film industry each year, perhaps it is time for the Academy Awards to create an Oscar for Best Tax Break. If nothing else, taxpayers at least deserve a shout-out during Sunday’s award ceremony. 纳税人每年都向电影行业派送数亿美元的礼包,也许金像奖是时候设立一个“奥斯卡最佳减税奖”了。如果啥都没有,那么纳税人至少也应出现在周日颁奖典礼的致谢词中。 Jared Meyer is a fellow at Economics21 at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. You can follow him on Twitter here. Jared Meyer是曼哈顿政策研究所Economics21分部的研究员。你可以到这里关注他的Twitter账号。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]一场轰轰烈烈的反娼妓战争

The War on Sex Trafficking Is the New War on Drugs
反性贩运战争就是新的禁毒战争

作者:Elizabeth Nolan Brown @ 2015-11
译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:辉格(@whigzhou)
来源:Reason,https://reason.com/archives/2015/09/30/the-war-on-sex-trafficking-is

And the results will be just as disastrous, for “perpetrators” and “victims” alike.
它将走向同样悲惨的结局,对“犯罪者”和“受害者”均是如此。

“Sex Trafficking of Americans: The Girls Next Door.”

“Sex-trafficking sweep nets arrests near Phoenix truck stops.”

“Man becomes 1st jailed under new human trafficking law.”

“性贩运美国人:邻家女孩。”

“凤凰城卡车停靠站附近扫网式逮捕性贩运。”

“性贩运新法实施后首人收监。”

Conduct a Google news search for the word trafficking in 2015 and you’ll find pages of stories about the commercial sex trade, in which hundreds of thousands of U.S. women and children are supposedly trapped by coercion or force.

2015年,在Google上用trafficking一词做新闻搜索,你将找到大量关于商业化性交易故事的页面,据称,成千上万的美国妇女儿童正陷于强制或暴力之困。

A few decades prior, a survey of “trafficking” headlines would have yielded much different results. Back then, newspapers recounted tales of “contemporary Al Capones trafficking illegal drugs to the smallest villages and towns in our heartland,” and of organized “motorcycle gangs” trafficking LSD and hashish.

几十年前,如果对包含“trafficking”一词的头条新闻做一番考察,结果会大不相同。那时候,报纸上详细讲述的是“当代的阿尔·卡彭【译注:Al Capone,上世纪二、三十年代芝加哥黑手党头目】们已将非法毒品贩卖至我们心脏地带的小村小镇”,以及有组织的“摩托党”贩卖LSD和印度大麻。

“Many young black men in the ghetto see the drug trade as the Gold Rush of the 1980s,” the Philadelphia Inquirer told readers in 1988. The National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC) warned of a “nationwide phenomenon” of drug lords abducting young people to force them into the drug trade. Crack kingpins were rumored to target runaways, beating them if they didn’t make drug sales quotas.

1988年,《费城问询报》对读者说:“众多贫民区黑人青年将毒品交易视为1980年代的淘金热。”全国失踪与受剥削儿童中心(NCMEC)曾发出警告称,毒枭们绑架年轻人并强迫他们加入毒品交易是一种“全国性现象”。当时还有传言称,可卡因头目会瞄准离家出走者,如果他们没能售出足额毒品就会殴打他们。

Such articles offered a breathless sense that the drug trade was booming, irresistible to criminals, and in desperate need of child foot soldiers. Lawmakers touted harsher penalties for drug offenses. The war on drugs raged. New task forces were created. Civilians were trained how to “spot” drug traffickers in the wild, and students instructed how to rat out drug-using parents. Politicians spoke of a drug “epidemic” overtaking America, its urgency obviously grounds for anything we could throw its way.

此类文章令人窒息,让人觉得毒品交易兴旺繁荣,能令犯罪分子利欲熏心,且对儿童兵的需求极为迫切。立法者们兜售各种针对毒品犯罪的更严厉惩罚。禁毒战争风起云涌。新的特遣部队成立了。平民受到训练,学习如何在野外“认出”毒品贩子;学生得到指导,学习如何告发吸毒的父母。政客们都在谈论一场正在袭击美国的毒品“传染”,其严峻性使得我们能够采纳的任何阻止措施均有不言而喻的理由。

We know now how that all worked out.

我们如今已知道这些事情的结局如何。

The tactics employed to “get tough” on drugs ended up entangling millions in the criminal justice system, sanctioning increasingly intrusive and violent policing practices, worsening tensions between law enforcement and marginalized communities, and degrading the constitutional rights of all Americans.

为“严打”毒品而采取的种种策略,结果使得数百万人受困于刑事司法系统,鼓励了日益扰民而有害的政策措施,恶化了执法机构与边缘社群之间的紧张关系,并且损害了全体美国人的宪法权利。

Yet even as the drug war’s failures and costs become more apparent, the Land of the Free is enthusiastically repeating the same mistakes when it comes to sex trafficking. This new “epidemic” inspires the same panicked rhetoric and punitive policies the war on drugs did—often for activity that’s every bit as victimless.

但尽管是禁毒战争的失败和代价日益昭然,当遇到性贩运问题时,美国这片自由之地仍旧在满腔热情地重复同样的错误。如同禁毒战争中曾经发生的那样,新的“传染病”鼓动了同样的恐慌修辞,激发了同样的惩罚政策——通常针对的都是从头到尾找不到受害者的行为。

Forcing others into sex or any sort of labor is abhorrent, and it deserves to be t(more...)

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The War on Sex Trafficking Is the New War on Drugs 反性贩运战争就是新的禁毒战争 作者:Elizabeth Nolan Brown @ 2015-11 译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 校对:辉格(@whigzhou) 来源:Reason,https://reason.com/archives/2015/09/30/the-war-on-sex-trafficking-is And the results will be just as disastrous, for "perpetrators" and "victims" alike. 它将走向同样悲惨的结局,对“犯罪者”和“受害者”均是如此。 "Sex Trafficking of Americans: The Girls Next Door." "Sex-trafficking sweep nets arrests near Phoenix truck stops." "Man becomes 1st jailed under new human trafficking law." “性贩运美国人:邻家女孩。” “凤凰城卡车停靠站附近扫网式逮捕性贩运。” “性贩运新法实施后首人收监。” Conduct a Google news search for the word trafficking in 2015 and you'll find pages of stories about the commercial sex trade, in which hundreds of thousands of U.S. women and children are supposedly trapped by coercion or force. 2015年,在Google上用trafficking一词做新闻搜索,你将找到大量关于商业化性交易故事的页面,据称,成千上万的美国妇女儿童正陷于强制或暴力之困。 A few decades prior, a survey of "trafficking" headlines would have yielded much different results. Back then, newspapers recounted tales of "contemporary Al Capones trafficking illegal drugs to the smallest villages and towns in our heartland," and of organized "motorcycle gangs" trafficking LSD and hashish. 几十年前,如果对包含“trafficking”一词的头条新闻做一番考察,结果会大不相同。那时候,报纸上详细讲述的是“当代的阿尔·卡彭【译注:Al Capone,上世纪二、三十年代芝加哥黑手党头目】们已将非法毒品贩卖至我们心脏地带的小村小镇”,以及有组织的“摩托党”贩卖LSD和印度大麻。 "Many young black men in the ghetto see the drug trade as the Gold Rush of the 1980s," the Philadelphia Inquirer told readers in 1988. The National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC) warned of a "nationwide phenomenon" of drug lords abducting young people to force them into the drug trade. Crack kingpins were rumored to target runaways, beating them if they didn't make drug sales quotas. 1988年,《费城问询报》对读者说:“众多贫民区黑人青年将毒品交易视为1980年代的淘金热。”全国失踪与受剥削儿童中心(NCMEC)曾发出警告称,毒枭们绑架年轻人并强迫他们加入毒品交易是一种“全国性现象”。当时还有传言称,可卡因头目会瞄准离家出走者,如果他们没能售出足额毒品就会殴打他们。 Such articles offered a breathless sense that the drug trade was booming, irresistible to criminals, and in desperate need of child foot soldiers. Lawmakers touted harsher penalties for drug offenses. The war on drugs raged. New task forces were created. Civilians were trained how to "spot" drug traffickers in the wild, and students instructed how to rat out drug-using parents. Politicians spoke of a drug "epidemic" overtaking America, its urgency obviously grounds for anything we could throw its way. 此类文章令人窒息,让人觉得毒品交易兴旺繁荣,能令犯罪分子利欲熏心,且对儿童兵的需求极为迫切。立法者们兜售各种针对毒品犯罪的更严厉惩罚。禁毒战争风起云涌。新的特遣部队成立了。平民受到训练,学习如何在野外“认出”毒品贩子;学生得到指导,学习如何告发吸毒的父母。政客们都在谈论一场正在袭击美国的毒品“传染”,其严峻性使得我们能够采纳的任何阻止措施均有不言而喻的理由。 We know now how that all worked out. 我们如今已知道这些事情的结局如何。 The tactics employed to "get tough" on drugs ended up entangling millions in the criminal justice system, sanctioning increasingly intrusive and violent policing practices, worsening tensions between law enforcement and marginalized communities, and degrading the constitutional rights of all Americans. 为“严打”毒品而采取的种种策略,结果使得数百万人受困于刑事司法系统,鼓励了日益扰民而有害的政策措施,恶化了执法机构与边缘社群之间的紧张关系,并且损害了全体美国人的宪法权利。 Yet even as the drug war's failures and costs become more apparent, the Land of the Free is enthusiastically repeating the same mistakes when it comes to sex trafficking. This new "epidemic" inspires the same panicked rhetoric and punitive policies the war on drugs did—often for activity that's every bit as victimless. 但尽管是禁毒战争的失败和代价日益昭然,当遇到性贩运问题时,美国这片自由之地仍旧在满腔热情地重复同样的错误。如同禁毒战争中曾经发生的那样,新的“传染病”鼓动了同样的恐慌修辞,激发了同样的惩罚政策——通常针对的都是从头到尾找不到受害者的行为。 Forcing others into sex or any sort of labor is abhorrent, and it deserves to be treated like the serious violation it is. But the activity now targeted under anti-trafficking efforts includes everything from offering or soliciting paid sex, to living with a sex worker, to running a classified advertising website. 强迫他人进行性交易或任何种类的劳动都很令人痛恨,理应和其他严重侵害一样得到处理。但目前的反贩运行动的目标所指,则包括了从提供或招揽有偿性行为,到与性工作者同居,再到运营一家分类广告网站等所有一切活动。 What's more, these new laws aren't organic responses by legislators in the face of an uptick in human trafficking activity or inadequate current statutes. They are in large part the result of a decades-long anti-prostitution crusade from Christian "abolitionists" and anti-sex feminists, pushed along by officials who know a good political opportunity when they see it and by media that never met a moral panic they didn't like. 此外,这些新法规并不是立法者在遭遇人口贩运行为增加或现行法律不足问题之后的自然回应。它们大部分都是基督教“废奴主义者”和反性女权主义者数十年来的反卖淫斗争的结果,其推手包括从中看到了良好政治机遇的官员,以及只要有道德恐慌就会来劲的媒体。 The fire is fueled by federal money, which sends police departments and activist groups into a grant-grubbing frenzy. The anti-trafficking movement is "just one big federal grant program," Michael Hudson, a scholar with the conservative Hudson Institute, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "Everybody is more worried about where they're going to get their next grant" than helping victims, Hudson said. 联邦资金则是火上添油,它将各个警局和行动组织都卷入了一场争取拨款的狂潮。保守派智库哈德逊研究所的学者Michael Hudson对《拉斯维加斯评论杂志》说,反贩运行动“只是一个大型联邦拨款项目”。他说:“大家更关心的是到哪里去找下一份拨款”,而不是帮助受害者。 Because of the visceral feelings that the issue of paid sex has always provoked, it's easy for overstatements and false statistics to go unchallenged, winning repetition in congressional hearings and the press. Yet despite all the dire proclamations, there's little evidence of anything approaching an "epidemic" of sexual slavery. 由于有偿性交易通常总能唤起一些本能的道德感,因此,过分夸大和错误统计总是容易避开质疑,得以反复出现在国会听证会和新闻媒体上。然而,尽管存在各种可怕的宣告,并没有什么证据表明性奴役这一“传染病”正在发生。 THE NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP 经不起推敲的数字 From 2000 to 2002, the State Department claimed that 50,000 people were trafficked into the U.S. each year for forced sex or labor. By 2003, the agency reduced this estimate to 18,000–20,000, further reducing it to 14,500–17,500 in subsequent reports. That's a 71 percent decrease in just five years, though officials offered no explanation as to how they arrived at these numbers or what accounted for the drastic change. These days, federal agencies tend to stick to the vague "thousands" when discussing numbers of incoming victims. 自2000年至2002年,国务院宣称,每年有5万人被贩运到美国从事强迫性行为或强迫劳动。到2003年,该机构将这一估计缩小到18000到20000人,在后续的报告中又进一步缩小为14500到17500人。五年间降低了71%,尽管官方没有给出解释说明他们是如何得出这些数字以及为何变化如此之大。现在,在讨论入境受害者数量时,联邦机构更愿意坚持使用模糊的“数千”一词。 Globally, some 600,000 to 800,000 people are trafficked across international borders each year, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimates. But the Government Accountability Office (GAO) in 2006 described this figure as "questionable" due to "methodological weaknesses, gaps in data, and numerical discrepancies," including the rather astonishing fact that "the U.S. government's estimate was developed by one person who did not document all his work." And even if he had, there would still be good reasons to doubt the quality of the data, which were compiled from a range of nonprofits, governments, and international organizations, all of which use different definitions of "trafficking." 全球来看,据国土安全部(DHS)估计,每年约有60至80万人遭到跨国界贩运。但政府问责办公室(GAO)2006年曾说,这一数字是“有问题的”,原因在于“方法论缺陷、数据缺失以及数值矛盾”,其中还包括一个令人乍舌的事实——“美国政府的这项估计是由一个人完成的,而且他并没有对其所有工作存档”。即便他存档了,我们也有很好的理由怀疑数据的质量,因为它们收集自各种各样的非营利组织、政府机构和国际组织,运用的“贩运”定义各不相同。 Glenn Kessler, The Washington Post's "Fact Checker" columnist, began digging into government-promulgated sex-slavery numbers last spring and discovered just how dubious many of them are. "Because sex trafficking is considered horrific, politicians appear willing to cite the flimsiest and most poorly researched statistics—and the media is content to treat the claims as solid facts," Kessler concluded in June. 《华盛顿邮报》的“事实核查者”专栏作家Glenn Kessler去年春开始钻研政府发布的性奴役数字,发现大量数字无比可疑。六月份,Kessler总结到:“由于性贩运被认为是骇人听闻的,所以政治家们似乎都愿意引用一些最经不起推敲、研究质量最糟糕的统计数字——而媒体则很乐意将这些断言当做确凿事实。” For instance, Rep. Joyce Beatty (D–Ohio) declared in a May statement that "in the U.S., some 300,000 children are at risk each year for commercial sexual exploitation." Rep. Ann Wagner (R–Mo.) made a similar statement that month at a congressional hearing, claiming the statistic came from the Department of Justice (DOJ). The New York Times has also attributed this number to the DOJ, while Fox News raised the number to 400,000 and sourced it to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). 比如,众议员Joyce Beatty(民主党—俄亥俄)在五月份的一份声明中宣称,“在美国,每年约有30万儿童遭遇商业化性剥削的威胁。”同月,众议员Ann Wagner(民主党—密苏里)在一场国会听证会上做出了类似声明,宣称统计数据来自司法部(DOJ)。《纽约时报》也将这一数字溯源于司法部,而《福克斯新闻》则将数字提升到40万,并将来源定为卫生部(HHS)。 But not only are these not DOJ or HHS figures, they're based on 1990s data published in a non-peer-reviewed paper that the primary researcher, Richard Estes, no longer endorses. The authors of that study came up with their number by speculating that certain situations—i.e., living in public housing, being a runaway, having foreign parents—place minors at risk of potential exploitation by sex traffickers. They then simply counted up the number of kids in those situations. To make a bad measure worse, anyone who fell into more than one category was counted multiple times. 然而,它们不仅不是司法部或卫生部提供的数字,而是基于一个1990年代发表于一篇未经同行评议的论文中的数据,而且其主要研究者Richard Estes现在都不再支持这一数据。完成该研究的几位作者如此推测:某些特定情形——如居住于廉租房、离家出走或父母为外国人等——会使未成年人面临被性贩子剥削的潜在风险,并由此来得出他们的数字。然后,他们就简单地把所有遭遇这类情形的孩子数量进行了一下加总。使这一糟糕估算变得更加糟糕的是,每个同时属于多种情形类别的人都被多次计算了。 "PLEASE DO NOT CITE THESE NUMBERS," wrote Michelle Stransky and David Finkelhor of the respected Crimes Against Children Research Center in 2008. "The reality is that we do not currently know how many juveniles are involved in prostitution. Scientifically credible estimates do not exist." Michelle Stransky和David Finkelhor在2008年曾写道:“请不要引用这些数字”,两人均是广受尊敬的“针对儿童犯罪研究中心”成员。“现实情况是,我们目前并不知道有多少青少年卷入了卖淫业。科学上可信的估算尚不存在。” A lengthy 2013 report on child sex trafficking from the Justice Department concluded that "no reliable national estimate exists of the incidence or prevalence of commercial sexual exploitation and sex trafficking of minors in the United States." 司法部2013年的一份关于儿童性贩运的长篇报告得出结论:“关于美国境内涉及未成年人的商业化性剥削和性贩运的发生频率或普遍程度,尚没有可靠的全国性估算。” Common sense should preclude believing the 300,000 number in the first place. If even a third of those "at risk" youth were peddled for sex in a given year, we'd be looking at nearly 110,000 victims. And since advocates often claim that victims are forced to have sex with 10, 20, or 30 clients a day, that would be—using the lowest number—1.1 million commercial child rapes in America each day. Even if we assume that child rapists are typically repeat customers, averaging one assault per week, that would still mean nearly 8 million Americans have a robust and ongoing child rape habit, in addition to the alleged millions who pay for sex with adults. 本来,从一开始,常识就应该能够阻止人们相信30万这个数字。即便这些“有风险”的少年人某年只有三分之一遭遇性贩运,我们看到的就会是11万受害者。又由于鼓吹者们通常宣称受害者被迫每天接客10、20、30人,那就是说,美国每天发生——用最小值计算——110万起商业性的强奸儿童案。即便我们假定儿童强奸犯都是典型的回头客,平均每周犯案一次,那也将意味着有近800万美国人拥有强烈且持久的儿童强奸嗜好,此外据称还有数百万美国人与成人发生过有偿性行为。 Common sense should also immediately cast doubt on another frequently cited statistic: that the average age at which females become victims of sex trafficking is 13. "If you think about it for half a minute, this statistic makes little sense," wrote Kessler. "After all, if it is the 'average,' then for all those who entered trafficking at age 16 or 17, there have to be nearly equivalent numbers who entered at age 9 or 10. But no one seriously believes that." 本来,常识还应该能够迅速令人对另一个经常被引用的统计数据起疑:女性成为性贩运受害者的平均年龄是13岁。“只要你花半分钟时间想想,这个数据就完全说不通”,Kessler写到,“要知道,如果它确实是‘平均数’,那么对应于所有那些16或17岁时遭遇贩运的人,必须得有几乎同等数量的人在9或10岁时就有此遭遇。没人会真诚的相信这一点。” Still, the obvious implausibility of the statistic—and its routine debunking—hasn't stopped it from reaching the upper echelons of public discourse. Kessler's own Washington Post ran it uncritically in 2014. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D–Minn.) made the claim on the Senate floor this year, citing the FBI. 这种数据明显不可信,且反复遭到驳斥,然而,这仍然无法阻止它们进入公共讨论的顶层。Kessler所在的《华盛顿邮报》本身就在2014年不加鉴别地登载过这一数据。今年,参议员Amy Klobuchar(民主党—明尼苏达)在参议院也做出同样的断言,引用的是FBI。 The DHS also asserts that "the average age a child is trafficked into the commercial sex trade is between 11 and 14 years old," sourcing it to the DOJ and the government's NCMEC. Yet none of these federal agencies take responsibility for this stat. 同样,卫生部也声称“儿童被贩运进入商业化性交易的平均年龄在11至14岁之间”,并称其来源为司法部政府的全国失踪与受剥削儿童中心。然而,上述联邦机构中没有一个表示为这一数据负责。 When Kessler followed the facts down the rabbit hole, the original source in all cases was...the self-disowned Estes paper, in which interviews with 107 teens doing street-based prostitution in the 1990s determined that their average age of entry into the business was 13. 当Kessler追问事实,一直钻进“兔子洞”【译注:《爱丽丝漫游奇境记》典故】之后,才发现所有这些证词的最初来源都是……Estes那篇已被作者本人否定的论文;在该文中,针对1990年代107位从事站街卖淫活动的青少年的访谈就确定了他们的平均入行年龄为13岁。 "So one government agency appears to cite two other government entities—but in the end the source of the data is the same discredited and out-of-date academic paper," wrote Kessler. "It would be amusing if it were not so sad." “所以,看似是一个政府机构引用另外两个政府部门——但最终的数据来源则是同一篇已遭否定的过时学术论文,”Kessler写到,“真是令人啼笑皆非。” Author and former sex worker Maggie McNeill has traced other uses of the age-13 figure back to a similarly narrow and unrepresentative study, this one looking at underage streetwalkers in 1982 San Francisco ("Victimization of Street Prostitutes" by M.H. Silbert and A.M. Pines). Among these interview subjects from three decades ago, the average age of their first noncommercial sexual experience was 13. The average age of entry into prostitution was 16, and the report made no mention of sex trafficking at all. 从前曾为性工作者的作家Maggie McNeill也追踪考察了其它对于13岁这个数据的用法,发现它源自一个同样狭隘且不具代表性的研究。该项研究考察的是旧金山1982年的未成年街头妓女(M. H. Silbert和A. M. Pines的《街头卖淫的牺牲》)。在这些三十年前的受访者中,第一次非商业的性经历平均发生于13岁时。进入卖淫业的平均年龄是16岁,并且这篇报告压根没有提及性贩运。 Surveys of adults working in the U.S. sex trade have yielded much higher average starting ages. A 2014 Urban Institute study involving 38 sex workers found that only four began before age 15, 10 started between the ages of 15 and 17, another four started in their 30s, and the remaining 20 began sex work between the ages of 18 and 29. A 2011 study, this one from Arizona State University, found that of more than 400 women arrested for prostitution in Phoenix, the average age of entry was about 25. 针对美国成年性交易从业者的研究得出的首次从业年龄要高得多。城市研究所2014年一项涉及38位性工作者的研究发现,只有4个入行年龄小于15岁,有10个开始于15至17岁,另有4个是30岁后才开始的,剩下的20个是在18至29岁之间开始从事性工作。另一项亚利桑拿州立大学2011年所做的研究发现,在凤凰城因卖淫被捕的400多名妇女中,平均入行年龄约为25岁。 "Regardless of whether the number is 300,000 or 30,000, something must be done to protect these children at risk of exploitation and trafficking," said Moira Bagley Smith, a spokeswoman for Rep. Wagner, when Kessler challenged the figure. But it's exactly this kind of thinking that inflicts real-world policy damage. 当Kessler对前述数据提出质疑时,众议员Wagner的发言人Moria Bagley Smith说:“不管数字是30万还是3万,我们必须采取适当措施来保护这些处于被剥削和被贩运风险中的儿童。”但正是这种思维方式导致了真实世界的政策代价。 Whether there are 30,000 or 300,000 crime victims makes a great deal of difference in terms of fashioning an appropriate response, as does the context of the victims' circumstances. Separating the mythology of sex trafficking from the facts is crucial for addressing problems as they exist, not problems as we might want, fear, or imagine them to be. 在设计恰当的应对办法时,犯罪受害者是3万还是30万,区别很大,正如受害人的环境背景影响很大一样。将有关性贩运的神话和事实加以区分,对于处理现实存在的问题——而非我们想要、惧怕或者想象中的问题——至关重要。 WILLFUL HYPERBOLE 恣意夸张 A 2010 study from Rutgers University professors James Finckenauer and Ko-lin Chin took an in-depth look at Chinese women working in America's illicit massage parlors, which are routinely denounced by politicians as hotbeds of sexual slavery. 罗格斯大学James Finckenauer和Ko-lin Chin教授2010年的一项研究深入考察了在美国非法按摩院中工作的中国妇女;此类按摩院经常被政客们指斥为性奴役的温床。 Indeed, Finckenauer noted that 93 percent of the women he interviewed would be considered sex trafficking victims under common legal definitions, which include any person who arrives in a foreign country for sex work regardless of whether force or coercion is involved. 事实上,Finckenauer指出,在他所访谈的妇女中,有93%会被通行的法律定义界定为性贩运受害者,因为这一定义包括了进入异国从事性工作的任何人,不管其中有没有涉及暴力或强制。 Yet not one of the 149 Chinese women interviewed said she was sold into prostitution, and only one reported being forced or coerced into it. "There is more diversity among the parties involved in prostitution than is commonly supposed, and to portray them all in the same way as victims is an oversimplification," the researchers concluded. 但受访的149位中国妇女中,没有一位说自己是被卖为妓女的,且只有一位报告说自己是被殴打或强制沦为妓女的。两位研究者的结论是:“卖淫业涉及的各方参与者比通常所认为的具有更多的差异性,以同一种方式将他们作为受害者来描绘,这是一种过分简化。” Under federal law and most state laws, anyone under 18 who is engaged in prostitution is considered a sex trafficking victim. But study after study has found most youths in the sex trade do not have "pimps." And if they are forced or coerced into the work, it's often at the hands of a family member or romantic partner, not some child-snatching stranger. 在联邦法律和绝大多数州法之下,18岁以下从事卖淫业的任何人都被视为性贩运受害者。但一项又一项研究都发现,性行业中的绝大多数少年人都没有“皮条”。如果他们是被强制或胁迫进入这一行的,那么施暴者通常是某个家庭成员或情人,而非绑架儿童的陌生人。 trafficking-coercion Pimps themselves claim to steer clear of underage sex workers. In interviews with 73 people who had been incarcerated for crimes such as promoting, profiting from, or compelling prostitution, the Urban Institute found that most tried to avoid business relationships with teens (though these respondents, along with the police officers Urban interviewed, also claimed it was common for teenagers to lie about their ages). 皮条客自己也宣称,他们会避开未成年性工作者。城市研究所曾对73个因助推卖淫、获利于卖淫或强迫卖淫等类罪行而入狱的罪犯进行访谈,发现其中绝大多数都避免和青少年建立业务关系(当然这些受访者和城市研究所访问的警官们也都提到,青少年谎报年龄的情况很常见)。 "I was determined to stay away from the younger bitches; 16 gets you 20," said one respondent. "Bitch better have a felony charge and stretch marks to mess with me," said another. "I know she is grown and been to jail." 某受访者说:“远离低龄婊子,这一点我很坚决;16岁能给你带来20年牢。”另一个则说:“要跟我搞,那些婊子最好能身背重罪、长妊娠纹”,“这样我就知道她是成人,坐过牢”。 "This particular business ain't about pimps going to high school and recruiting a girl," said a third. "Government don't understand how this game original come about. Girl run away from home, look older than what she is. They think pimps are going out and enticing them." 另有一个则说:“这个特殊行当,不是说皮条客去高中招募少女”,“政府没搞明白这个游戏是怎么来的。这帮女孩自己跑出家门,打扮得比实际成熟。政府觉得是皮条客们四处出动、诱拐少女。” By any estimation, teen runaways make up a major proportion of underage individuals in prostitution, forced or otherwise. Runaways are especially likely to engage in what sociologists call "survival sex"—exchanging sex not for a set fee, but for food and a place to crash. 无论采取何种方式估计,离家出走的青少年都是从事卖淫的未成年人(无论被迫与否)的主要部分。离家出走者特别容易加入社会学家所称的“生存卖淫”——并不是为了固定的价格而出卖肉体,而是为了食物或过夜之处。 Sixty-eight percent of minors engaged in street-based prostitution in New York City say they've sought help from youth services organizations, according to Kate D'Adamo of the Sex Workers Project. "New York City funds roughly 200 beds for a population of 4,000 unaccompanied, homeless youth," D'Adamo told TechCrunch. "When all the beds are full, it is street economies like the sex trade which they turn to in order to provide basic needs. If we want to identify the most vulnerable, all we have to do is provide support when someone stands up and says 'I need a place to sleep tonight.'" 据“性工作者计划”的Kate D'Adamo所说,在纽约市从事站街卖淫的未成年人中,有68%自称曾向青年服务组织寻求帮助。D'Adamo向科技博客TechCrunch说:“纽约市向4000名孤独无家的年轻人资助提供了约200个床位”,“如果床位满了,为了满足基本需求,这些人就会求助于街头经济如性交易。如果我们想要找出最容易受害的人,我们只要做到一条:有人站起来说‘我今晚需要找个地方睡’的时候,我们能提供些帮助。” Instead, we fund police task forces to monitor Internet ads for weeks in search of suspect code words or tattoos. We pass laws mandating more prison time for pimps. We set up elaborate sting operations for both sex workers and their customers. 然而,我们却在资助警察特遣队持续数周对网络广告进行监视,搜寻可疑的暗号或纹身。我们立法要求延长皮条客坐牢年限。我们精心设计种种针对性工作者及其顾客的诱捕行动。 We hang "Are you being trafficked?" signs at strip clubs and highway rest stops, and train airport staff on how they can spot the signs of sex trafficking. We act as if sex traffickers are organized, jet-setting, diabolical, and legion. We are chasing our own mythology, to the detriment of actual results. 我们在脱衣舞酒吧和高速公路停车区悬挂“你是否遭到贩运?”的标牌,向机场工作人员提供如何发现性贩运迹象的培训。我们采取种种行为,好像性贩子们组织严密、生活奢华、暴虐残忍且数量众多一样。我们所追捕的,只是我们自己编的神话,真正的结果则是有害的。 A look at human trafficking investigations in the U.S. makes this clear. In July 2015, for instance, Homeland Security, the Arizona Department of Public Safety, and other Arizona state agencies conducted a joint "human trafficking enforcement operation" that involved randomly stopping commercial trucks as well as running the license plates of passersby. 看看美国的人口贩运调查就清楚了。比如,国土安全部、亚利桑那州公共安全部及其它州政府机构于2015年7月共同实施了一项“人口贩运执法行动”,措施是随机拦截商用货车并检查过路者的牌照。 The 30-agent, nine-hour stunt resulted in 28 stops, the checking of 5,576 license plates...and zero arrests for human trafficking. Police did arrest one woman for prostitution, however, and are continuing to investigate another who said she worked in "adult entertainment." 这场由30名执法官持续9小时的噱头行动拦截车辆28次,检查牌照5576次……而因贩运人口被捕的人数为零。不过,确实有一名女性因卖淫而被警察逮捕,另一名自称从事“成人娱乐”的妇女也将继续接受调查。 Last April, the FBI released its first crime data on state-based trafficking investigations. In the 13 states reporting for last year, law enforcement looked into a total of 14 human trafficking incidents, ultimately making a grand total of four arrests. 去年四月,FBI首次发布了各州贩运调查的犯罪数据。在去年提交报告的13个州中,执法者总共调查了14起人口贩运案件,最终共计拘捕4人。 Between 2008 and 2010, federally funded task forces investigated 2,515 suspected incidents of human trafficking, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics. An "investigation" was defined as "any effort in which the task force spent at least one hour investigating" the incident. Of these cases, only 6 percent led to arrests. 根据司法统计局数据,在2008至2010年间,得到联邦资金资助的特遣部队共调查了2515起涉嫌人口贩运的案件。其中“调查”的定义是,“特遣部队至少花了一个小时来努力调查”某案件。在这些案子中,只有6%以拘捕结束。 From 2007 to fall 2008, federal dollars funded 38 sex-trafficking task forces, of which 15 found no confirmed victims or suspects, 14 reported between one and four cases, and nine reported more than five. Of the total 1,229 suspected incidents that year, sex cops found just 14 underage victims. 自2007年至2008年秋,联邦为38个性贩运特遣部队提供了资金,其中的15个没有发现任何经确认的受害者或嫌疑人,有14个报告了1至4起案子,9个所报案件在5个以上。在当年共计1229件涉嫌案件中,性警察们只找出了14名未成年受害人。 "Given the obstacles to locating victims in black markets" some disparity between estimated numbers and confirmed cases should be expected, wrote the sociologist Ronald Weitzer in a 2011 Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology paper. But "a huge disparity between the two should at least raise questions about the alleged scale of victimization." 2011年,社会学家Ronald Weitzer在《刑法与犯罪学杂志》上的一篇论文中写道:“考虑到在黑市中找受害者要面临种种障碍”,估算数字和确证案件之前存在一定差别,这是可以预料的。但是,“两者之间的巨大悬殊至少应该引发人们的疑惑,反思此前宣称的受害者规模。” UNNECESSARY LEGISLATION 毫无必要的立法 Of all the myths and misinformation about sex trafficking in America, the most pernicious may be that our current laws are insufficient. Pushing his new Justice for Victims of Trafficking Act, which passed last May, Sen. John Cornyn (R–Texas) declared that it would "provide law enforcement with the tools" to hold human traffickers accountable. 在关于美国性贩运的种种迷思和误报中,最有害的可能是,宣称现行法律不完善。参议员John Cornyn(共和党—德州)在推动其《贩运受害者正义法案》这一新法(已于今年五月通过)时曾宣称,该法案将“为执法机构提供了工具”,使他们能将人贩子绳之以法。 Another co-sponsor, Sen. Mark Kirk (R–Ill.), said the bill "gives police and prosecutors the tools they need to go after sex traffickers." Such statements—and there are plenty more—imply that we currently lack tough anti-trafficking laws. Yet for at least 15 years, federal policy makers and agencies have been continually strengthening these laws and increasing funding for their enforcement. 另一名联署人,参议员Mark Kirk(共和党—伊利诺伊),则称该法案“向警察和检察官们提供了追捕性贩子所必须的工具”。这些说法——还有很多——暗示,我们原先缺乏严厉的反贩运法规。然后,至少在过去15年间,联邦政策制定者和联邦机构一直在持续强化此类法律,并不断增加其执法资金。 Things really got going with the passage of the Trafficking Victims Protection Act (TVPA) in 2000, though before this federal agents could bring human trafficking charges under various statutes, including the Mann Act (passed in 1910 to prohibit transporting a minor across state lines for the purposes of engaging in prostitution), the Tariff Act (passed in 1930 to ban importing goods made with forced or indentured labor), and various laws related to peonage, indentured servitude, and slavery. 这事在2000年就已经真正启动,当年通过了《贩运受害者保护法案》(TVPA);即便在此之前,联邦机构也能通过各种不同法令对人口贩运提起控告,包括《曼恩法案》(1910年通过,禁止州际之间运送未成年人为娼)、《关税法案》(1930年通过,禁止进口由强迫劳工或契约奴工制造的产品)及其它各种与劳动偿债制、契约奴工制和奴隶制有关的法律。 But the TVPA, signed by President Bill Clinton in the waning days of his presidency, specifically established as federal crimes "forced labor," "sex trafficking," and "unlawful conduct with respect to documents in furtherance of trafficking." It also created a national Office to Monitor and Combat Trafficking in Persons, and gave the feds authority to seize traffickers' assets. 但是,由比尔·克林顿总统在其任期的没落时期所签署的《贩运受害者保护法案》,明确将“强迫劳动”、“性贩运”和“事涉各类文件的助推贩运的非法行为”确定为联邦犯罪。它还创设了一个全国性的“监测和打击人口贩运办公室”,并授权联邦政府官员可没收人贩子的财产。 The TVPA's 2003 reauthorization gave law enforcement the ability to use wiretapping to investigate sex trafficking and child sexual exploitation, increased the minimum and maximum sentencing requirements for a variety of sex offenses, and instituted a "two strikes, you're out" rule requiring mandatory life imprisonment upon a second sex offense involving a minor, "unless the sentence of death is imposed." 《贩运受害者保护法案》的2003年再授权法案赋予执法机构以监听调查性贩运和儿童性剥削的能力,提高了一系列性侵犯的最低和最高刑罚要求,并建立了一条“两次就出局”的规则,要求对涉及未成年人的性侵犯再犯实施刚性的终身监禁,“除非已经处以死刑”。 The 2005 reauthorization added human trafficking to crimes that can trigger the federal Racketeer Influenced Corrupt Organizations (RICO) law, expanded asset forfeiture possibilities, and directed the CIA to study "the interrelationship between trafficking in persons and terrorism." It also increased funding for the prosecution of "persons who engage in the purchase of commercial sex acts." 2005年的再授权法案将人口贩运添加到了可以触发联邦《反欺诈与腐败组织》(RICO)法的罪行之列,扩大了财产没收的可能性,并命令CIA研究“人口贩运与恐怖主义之间的相互关系”。它还为起诉“参与购买商业化性行为的人”增加了资金。 In 2008, legislators enhanced criminal penalties for human trafficking and expanded what qualifies to include several new areas, including anyone who "obstructs, attempts to obstruct, or in any way interferes with or prevents the enforcement of" anti-trafficking laws. It specified that in minor sex trafficking cases, "The Government need not prove that the defendant knew that the person had not attained the age of 18 years." And it significantly increased federal funding—doubling some appropriations and more than tripling others—for anti-trafficking efforts at home and abroad. The 2013 reauthorization increased federal involvement with state and local anti-trafficking efforts. 2008年,立法者提高了人口贩运的刑事惩罚,并扩大了限定条件,使之包含了几个新的领域,包括任何“阻扰、试图阻扰或以任何方式干扰或阻止”反贩运法规“实施”的人。它明确,在未成年性贩运案件中,“政府无需证明被告人知道该人未满18岁。”并且显著增加了国内外反贩运斗争的联邦资金——部分拨款是此前的两倍、其它则是此前的三倍以上。2013年的再授权法案增加了联邦在各州和各地方反贩运斗争中的参与度。 This year's Justice for Victims of Trafficking Act made soliciting paid sex from a minor a form of federal sex trafficking; established a Domestic Trafficking Victims' Fund into which anyone convicted of trafficking must pay $5,000; and lowered the evidentiary standard for proving trafficking charges. 今年的《贩运受害者正义法案》把引诱未成年人从事有偿性交易确定为联邦性贩运的一种形式;建立了一个“国内贩运受害者基金”,每个被定罪的人贩子都必须向其缴纳5000美元;并降低了证明贩运指控的证据标准。 The act also established that websites and publishers—from classified ad sites such as Craigslist to social media services such as Twitter and Reddit—may be charged with sex trafficking if any victim is found to have advertised there. And it created a "HERO corps" of military veterans who will work with Immigrations and Customs Enforcement agents to fight cybercrime, including "digital intellectual property theft" and "hidden marketplaces." 这一法案还明确,网站和出版商——从分类广告网站如Craigslist到社交媒体服务如Twitter和Reddit——一旦被发现有曾登过任何受害者的广告,则有可能面临性贩运指控。它还组建了一队由退伍老兵组成的“英雄警察”,与移民和海关执法局官员合作打击网络犯罪,包括“数字知识产权盗窃”和“隐蔽市场”。 trafficking-age Sen. Cornyn called it a "first step." 参议员Cornyn把这称为“第一步”。 The State Department's 2014 Trafficking in Persons report states explicitly that our current penalties for human trafficking "are sufficiently stringent and commensurate with penalties prescribed for other serious offenses." Penalties for forced labor, involuntary servitude, or peonage range from five to 20 years without aggravating factors; possible life imprisonment with them. Sex traffickers can receive up to life imprisonment, and are required to serve at least 10 years in prison if the victim is under 17 and 15 years if the victim is under 14. Victims may also independently file a civil cause of action; something 117 have done since 2003, with a 75 percent success rate. 国务院2014年《人口贩运》报告明确说明,我们对于人口贩运的现行惩罚“足够严厉,与为其它严重罪行规定的惩罚相当。”在没有加刑因素的情况下,对于强迫劳动、非自愿劳役或劳役偿债的惩罚是5到20年;如果有加刑因素,可判终身监禁。性贩子最高可获终身监禁;如果受害者小于17岁,要求至少狱中服刑10年;如果受害者小于14岁,则是15年。受害者还可以独立提起民事诉讼;自2003年以来已有大概117起,其中75%成功。 In addition to federal anti-trafficking laws, states have been adopting a flurry of their own measures. In 2014 alone, 31 states passed new laws concerning human trafficking. Since the start of 2015, at least 22 states have done so. 在联邦反贩运法律之外,各州本身也一直在采用大量措施。仅2014年就有31个州通过了涉及人口贩运的新法律。2015年开年以来,已有至少22个州这么做了。 Echoing the policy choices of the drug war, one common trend in these laws has been harsher sentences for trafficking offenses, including new mandatory minimums. In Florida, helping a minor engage in prostitution in any way now comes with mandatory life imprisonment. In Louisiana, labor trafficking of a minor comes with a five-year mandatory minimum, and sex trafficking of a minor 15 years. In New Jersey, soliciting a minor for paid sex comes with a minimum $15,000 fine. Some states have also started adding "aggravating" factors that trigger higher penalties, such as the offense taking place within a certain distance of a school or group home. 如同禁毒战争中的政策选择一样,上述法律中的一个普遍趋势是,对贩运罪行采取更为严厉的刑罚,包括制定新的刚性最低刑期。在弗罗里达州,以任何方式协助未成年人进入卖淫业如今都将面临刚性终身监禁。在路易斯安那州,贩运未成年劳动力将面临最少5年的刚性刑期,而性贩运未成年人则是15年。在新泽西州,引诱未成年人进行有偿性交易将面临最低15000美元的罚款。有些州还开始增加能够触发更高刑罚的“加刑”因素,包括侵害发生于离学校或集体宿舍一定距离以内。 trafficking-wiretapping Another trend is adding trafficking-related offenses to those that get perps on sex-offender registries. Last January, Arkansas passed a bill requiring anyone convicted of trafficking in persons or "patronizing a victim of human trafficking" to register as a sex offender. Increasing criminal penalties on patrons, or "johns," has been hot in state legislatures, too. 另一个趋势是,将与贩运有关的犯罪行为归为需要对罪犯进行性犯罪者登记之列。去年一月,阿肯色州通过一项法案,要求一旦被定罪为贩运人口或“光顾人口贩运受害者”,就必须登记为性犯罪者。对顾客即“嫖客”加重刑事惩罚也一直是各州立法的热点。 In 21 states, "sex trafficking laws have been amended or originally enacted with the intent to decisively reach the action of buyers of sex," according to the anti-trafficking nonprofit Shared Hope International. In 2014, Michigan changed soliciting someone under 18 for sex from a misdemeanor to a felony sex offense. Florida recently stipulated that people found guilty of soliciting prostitution (from someone of any age) must do 100 hours of community service and attend "john school," where they will be educated on "the negative effects of prostitution and human trafficking." 据反贩运非营利组织“国际共同希望”称,在21个州中,“对性贩运法律的修订或全新颁布,意在决定性地打击性服务买家的行为。”2014年,密歇根州将引诱未满18岁者发生性关系由轻罪改为性侵犯重罪。弗罗里达州最近规定,犯有招妓罪(无论对象是何年龄)的人都必须做满100小时社区服务,并参加“嫖客学校”,在里面接受有关“卖淫和人口贩运的负面影响”的教育。 trafficking-asset Expanding police/prosecutorial power to fight and profit from trafficking is also common. At least 21 states now allow police to use wiretapping in trafficking investigations. And many states allow asset forfeiture for those convicted of sex trafficking or prostitution. For instance, in Colorado, "every building or part of a building including the ground upon which it is situated and all fixtures and contents thereof, every vehicle, and any real property" are up for grabs if they've been used in conjunction with prostitution of any kind. 扩大警察和检察官打击贩运并从中获利的权力,这种做法也很常见。至少有21个州现已允许警察在贩运调查中使用监听手段。此外,许多州允许对获得性贩运或卖淫定罪的人实施财产没收。比如,在科罗拉多州,“每栋建筑或建筑的任一部分,包括建筑所在的土地,以及此建筑内的所有固定装置和内容物品,每辆车和所有不动产”都可以被拿走,只要它们曾被用于任何形式的卖淫活动。 The final category of popular new state laws seems predominantly concerned with "raising awareness," be it via classes for hotel employees, programs in school curricula, or signs posted in strip clubs. Dozens of states now require certain entities—from adult-entertainment businesses and job-placement firms to hospitals, rest stops, and airports—to post the National Human Trafficking Hotline number, or face penalties. In Georgia, failure to do so can result in fines of between $500 and $5,000. 各州流行的最后一类新法似乎主要注重“提高觉悟”,可能是通过为宾馆雇员开培训班,在学校课程中设置有关课程,或在脱衣舞夜总会悬挂标牌等。如今已有几十个州要求某些机构——从成人娱乐行业和职业介绍所到医院、停车场和机场——张贴“全国人口贩运热线”电话,否则就会被罚款。在佐治亚州,没做到这一点可能面临500至5000美元的罚款。 Federal agencies are also in the trafficking publicity game. In July 2015, the DHS announced the expansion of "awareness efforts to major airports, truck stops, and motorist gas stations across the country," where it will fund messages describing "the signs of human trafficking" on signs, video monitors, and shopping bags. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission conducted more than 250 human trafficking "outreach events" in 2013 alone. 联邦机构也参加了这一对人口贩运进行曝光的游戏。2015年7月,卫生部宣布要“在全国的主要机场、货车停车区和机动车加油站扩大提高觉悟的工作”,它将提供资金,在这些地方的标牌、显示器和购物袋上发布信息,内容则是“关于人口贩运的标志”。就业机会平等委员会仅2013年就举办了250多场人口贩运“宣讲活动”。 REFRAMING PROSTITUTION 重新界定卖淫 If there's no empirical evidence that domestic human trafficking is increasing, and the State Department says we already have adequate laws to go after traffickers, then what's driving this current legislative frenzy? 如果没有经验证据表明国内人口贩运在增加,且国务院说过我们已有足够法律来追捕人贩子,那么究竟是什么东西在驱动当下的这场立法狂潮? One factor is opposition to prostitution, even between consenting adults. Since the 1990s, a coalition of Christian and radical feminist activists has been working to redefine all prostitution as sex trafficking. While the Clinton administration was unsympathetic to their efforts, they found a friend in President George W. Bush. 其中一个因素是对卖淫(即便是成人之间的自愿卖淫)的反对。自1990年代以来,由基督徒和激进女权主义者结成的联盟一直在努力,试图将所有卖淫都重新界定为性贩运。克林顿政府对这一活动并不热心,但他们在小布什总统那里找到了知音。 In a 2002 National Security Presidential Directive, the White House stated that prostitution was "inherently harmful and dehumanizing." Hence the administration's new rule: Non-governmental organizations receiving federal funds to fight human trafficking (or AIDS) must explicitly oppose prostitution. 在2002年的一份国土安全总统指令中,白宫宣布卖淫“本质上有害且令人丧失人性”。于是有了该届政府的新规则:接受联邦资金从事反人口贩运(或反艾滋病)事业的非政府组织必须明确反对卖淫。 "Prostitution is not the oldest profession, but the oldest form of oppression," a State Department publication from 2004 reads. The agency stated that "the vast majority of women in prostitution don't want to be there," that "few activities are as brutal and damaging to people as prostitution," and that "prostitution leaves women and children physically, mentally, emotionally, and spiritually devastated," with damage that "can never be undone." “卖淫并非最古老的职业,而是最古老的压迫形式”,国务院2004年的一份出版物如是说。该机构称,“从事卖淫的绝大部分女性都不愿意如此”,且“没有什么行为比卖淫更残忍、对人更具损害性”,以及“卖淫让妇女和儿童在生理上、心理上、情感上以及精神上受到摧残”,其伤害“永不可能恢复”。 "Since the early 2000s, anti-prostitution policies at the federal level have translated into increasingly aggressive state and local-level policing of sex workers and their customers," wrote Kari Lerum, Kiesha McCurtis, Penelope Saunders, and Stephanie Wahab in a 2012 article for Anti-Trafficking Review. Kari Lerum、Kiesha McCurtis、Penelope Saunders和Stephanie Wahab 2012年发表于《反贩运评论》上的一篇文章写道:“自21世纪初以来,联邦层面的反卖淫政策已经转变为州层面和地方层面针对性工作者及其顾客的日益严厉的整顿。” This conflation of trafficking and prostitution "has allowed for federal dollars to be used locally for anti-prostitution purposes," the authors noted. "Anti-trafficking raids, such as Operation Cross Country held annually since 2006, have resulted in the arrest of many sex workers nationwide using federal anti-trafficking dollars." 上述几位作者提到,这种对人口贩运和卖淫的归并处理,“已使得各地方将联邦资金用在了反卖淫这一目的上”,“反贩运搜查,比如自2006年以来每年进行的‘横越美国行动’,花费了联邦反贩运资金,结果只是全国范围内众多性工作者被捕。” The goal of Operation Cross Country, according to the FBI's website, is "to recover victims of child sex trafficking." In 2014, more than a dozen cities took part. Knoxville, Tennessee, to cite one participant, uncovered zero underage victims of sex trafficking, but it did arrest eight women for prostitution, four women for promoting prostitution, two women for human trafficking, and four men for solicitation. 根据FBI网站,“横越美国行动”的目标,是“找回儿童性贩运的受害者”。2014年有十几个城市参加了这一行动。只举一个参与城市为例,田纳西州的Knoxville,没有找到一个未成年的性贩运受害者,但确实因卖淫逮捕了8名妇女,因协助卖淫逮捕了2名妇女,因贩卖人口逮捕了2名妇女,因引诱卖淫逮捕了4名男子。 In Newark, New Jersey, one 14-year-old victim was identified and 45 people were arrested for prostitution or pimping. Richmond, Virginia, found no child victims but charged 26 people with prostitution and two with pimping. In Atlanta, dozens were arrested for prostitution, loitering, soliciting, and drug possession. 在新泽西州的Newark,确认了一名14岁的受害者,有45人因卖淫或拉皮条而被逮捕。在弗吉尼亚州的Richmond,没有找到一个受害儿童,不过有26人因卖淫、2人因拉皮条遭到控告。在亚特兰大,数十人因卖淫、街头游荡、招嫖及持有毒品而被捕。 Phoenix officials announced the most victims recovered: five minors and 42 adults. But dig beyond the press release and you'll see the adult "victims" included women willingly working in prostitution. Officers posing as clients answered these women's online ads and then apprehended them. 凤凰城的警官所宣布的受害者解救数目最大:5个未成年、42个成人。但往新闻发布之外再挖一挖,你会发现所谓成人“受害者”中包括了自愿卖淫的妇女。警官们假装顾客,回应这些妇女的线上广告,然后再逮捕她们。 One 20-year-old "victim" had her arm broken by the cops when she tried to flee. A 16-year-old victim was booked on prostitution charges when she refused to let officers contact her parents. After failing to secure emergency shelter for two adult victims who had no money and no identification, police returned them to the motel where they'd been apprehended "so they could try and arrange funds to get back" home. 某位20岁的“受害者”在试图逃跑时还被警察把手臂给扭断了。当一位16岁的受害者拒绝让警官联系其父母时,她被登记为受到卖淫指控。在为两名成年受害人寻找临时住所失败之后,由于两人既无钱财也无身份证明,警察又把她们送回了逮捕她们的同一家汽车旅馆,“这样她们能试着筹集回家的钱”。 INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF A MORAL CRUSADE 道德圣战的制度化 In a 2012 paper published in Politics & Society, Ronald Weitzer suggested that the 1990s anti-prostitution crusade has become fully "institutionalized" in the 21st century. "Institutionalization by the state may be limited or extensive—ranging from consultation with activists, inclusion of leaders in the policy process, material support for crusade organizations, official endorsement of crusade ideology, resource mobilization, and the creation of legislation and new agencies to address the problem," Weitzer wrote. Sound familiar? 在一篇2012年发表于《政治与社会》杂志的论文中,Ronald Weitzer认为,1990年代的反卖淫斗争在21世纪已经完全“制度化”了。他写道:“州层面的制度化既可能是有限性质的,也可能是全面彻底的——其内容包括征求活跃分子意见、将其领导人纳入政策过程、向斗争组织提供物质支持、为其斗争意识形态提供官方背书、资源动员、为处理这个问题而创设法律和新的机构等。”听着是不是很熟悉? "Some moral crusades are so successful that they see their ideology fully incorporated in government policy and vigorous efforts by state agencies to combat the problem on their own," he noted. In other words, "the movement's central goals become a project of the government." 他还提到,“某些道德圣战如此成功,以至于它们的结果是,州立机构已经将这一斗争的意识形态完全纳入了政府政策和强力措施,自己扛起了与此问题作战的任务。”换句话说,“这一任务的核心目标已经变成了一项政府规划。” It's hard to think of a better representative of this institutionalization than the Polaris Project, one of America's biggest anti-trafficking groups. Founded by a man who now runs the website Everyday Feminism and a woman who now works for the federal government, Polaris has drafted multi-pronged model legislation for the taking. Compare Polaris' recommendations with state trafficking laws, and you'll find near verbatim language in some, and shared assumptions and goals in almost all. 很难想到还有什么例子能比“北极星项目”更好代表这种制度化了。它是美国最大的反贩运团体之一,其创立者为一男一女,前者目前运营着一家叫做“每日女权主义”的网站,后者现为联邦政府工作。“北极星”已经起草了多管齐下的示范法案,供人参考。拿“北极星”的建议与州反贩运法做个比较,你就能发现部分句子几乎一字不差,而且绝大部分辞句有着共同的预设前提和目标。 How did Polaris gain such influence? One way is through state "report cards." Advertised as a measure of states' commitment to fighting human trafficking, it's basically a measure of how closely their laws hew to the Polaris policy wishlist. Among the must-haves: a law requiring the display of the national human trafficking hotline number, which Polaris runs with funding from Health and Human Services. States that fail to enact all of the Polaris-endorsed policies wind up with bad grades, which the organization then publicizes extensively. “北极星”这么大的影响力是怎么来的?其中一个途径是通过发布各州“成绩单”。据宣传,这是对各州投身反人口贩运斗争努力程度的一种测量,但基本上测量的是各州法律在多大程度上遵守“北极星”的政策意愿清单。必要部分中有一条:立法要求张贴全国人口贩运热线电话,而这个热线是由“北极星”用来自卫生部的资金运营的。有些州没能将“北极星”支持的政策全部立为法律,最终得分就很差劲,并被该组织广为宣传。 Another driver of state trafficking policies is the Uniform Law Commission (ULC), a nonpartisan organization that drafts model state legislation in a variety of areas. In 2010, ULC was asked by the American Bar Association to prepare a plan for tackling human trafficking. The result was drafted in collaboration with Polaris, Shared Hope International, the National Association of Attorneys General, and the U.S. State Department, then approved by the bar association in 2013. 各州制定此类贩运政策的另一个推动力来自“统一法律委员会”(ULC),这是一个致力于在诸多领域起草示范性州法的无党派组织。2010年,美国律师协会请统一法律委员起草一个规划,以应对人口贩运问题。最终成果是由统一法律委员会与“北极星”、“国际共同希望”、“全国首席检察官联合会”以及美国国务院共同起草的,并于2013年获得律师协会认可。 In the first half of 2015, two states enacted laws based on ULC's model legislation and four others introduced them. Four states enacted ULC-based trafficking laws in 2014 with 10 more attempting to. 2015年上半年,已有2个州根据统一法律委员会的示范法案制定法律,另有4个州已发起提议。2014年有4个州颁布了以统一法律委员会为参考基础的贩运法规,另有10个州还在为此努力。 Among the model legislation's main tenets are court-ordered forfeiture of real and personal property for traffickers, providing "immunity to minors who are human trafficking victims and commit prostitution or nonviolent offenses," and imposing "felony-level punishment when the defendant offers anything of value to engage in commercial sexual activity." 该示范立法的核心原则之一是由法院下令对人贩子的不动产和个人财产实施没收,并“为本身为人口贩运受害者,同时犯有卖淫罪或非暴力罪行的未成年人”提供“豁免”,以及“当被告提供了任何有价值物品以进行商业化性行为时”,对其加以“重罪水平的惩罚”。 That last bit is part of what's known as the "end-demand" strategy, or the "Nordic model," which focuses heavier penalties on sex buyers than sex sellers. Popularized by Nordic feminists, it's since become the law of the land in Canada and is rapidly influencing American policy, with many religious-based anti-trafficking groups also adopting its rallying cry. As a result, cities and states around the country have begun increasing penalties for prostitution clients and rebranding them as sexual predators. In Seattle, for instance, the crime of "patronizing a prostitute" was recently rechristened "sexual exploitation." 这最后一点是所谓“终结需求”策略的体现之一,该策略又称“北欧模式”,注重对性服务买家而非卖家施加重罚。最早由北欧女权主义者普及,该策略在加拿大成为当地法律,并正在加速影响美国政策,许多从宗教角度反贩运的团体也在采用这一战斗口号。结果是,全国境内的诸多城市和州政府都已开始加大对嫖客的惩罚力度,并将他们改称为色情魔。比如,在西雅图,“光顾妓女”罪最近已被改名为“性剥削”。 The theory behind "end demand" is that if only we arrest enough patrons or make the punishments for them severe enough, people will stop trying to purchase sex. Voila! No more prostitution, no more sex trafficking. If that sounds familiar, perhaps you're old enough to remember the '80s, when a similar approach was supposed to bring down the drug trade. “终结需求”策略背后的理论是,只有逮捕足够多的顾客或对他们施加足够严厉的惩罚,人们才会停止去买春。瞧!卖淫不再有,性贩运也不再有。如果你对此听着耳熟,可能是因为你足够年长,还记得80年代的事,当时曾用过类似的办法,认为它能打倒毒品交易。 "Ending the demand for drugs is how, in the end, we will win," President Ronald Reagan declared in 1988. Indeed, it was how we were already winning: "The tide of the battle has turned, and we're beginning to win the crusade for a drug-free America," Reagan claimed. 罗纳德·里根总统1988年宣布:“终结毒品需求将是我们最终取得胜利的办法。”不,它是当时正取得的节节胜利的缘由所在,里根声称:“战争的风向已经变了,我们已经开始赢得这场斗争,走向一个无毒美国。” In reality, the number of illicit drug users in America has only risen since then, despite the billions of dollars spent and hundreds of thousands of people locked away. In 1990, for instance, 7.1 percent of Americans had used some sort of illegal drug in the past month, according to the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse. By 2002 it had risen to 8.3 percent, and by 2013 to 9.4 percent. 事实上,从那时候至今,美国人中的非法毒品使用者数量只增不降,尽管我们花费了数十亿美元,关押了数十万人。比如,根据国家毒品滥用家庭调查,1990年有7.1%的美国人在过去一个月曾服用某种非法毒品。而到2002年,这一数字已经上升到8.3%,到2013年则升到了9.4%。 The utter failure to "end demand" for drugs hasn't dented optimism that we can accomplish the trick with prostitution. During the "National Day of John Arrests" each year, police pose as sex workers online and then arrest would-be clients. Each year, hundreds of men are booked in these stings and charged with offenses ranging from public indecency and solicitation to pimping and sex trafficking. If these anti-trafficking efforts sound a lot like old vice policing, that's because the tactics, and results, are nearly identical. 针对毒品的“终结需求”策略的彻底失败,并没能减少那种认为我们能够在卖淫问题上实现这一计策的乐观主义。在每年的“全国抓嫖日”期间,警察在网上假扮性工作者,然后逮捕企图嫖娼的客户。每年都有好几百男人落入这种圈套,然后被控犯罪,罪名从公共场合猥亵、招嫖到拉皮条、性贩运不等。如果这类反贩运做法听起来特别像是以前那种腐化警察,那是因为两者在策略和结果上都接近于雷同。 In a study released last year by Shared Hope International and Arizona State University, researchers examined end-demand efforts in four metro areas over a four-month period. Between 50 and 60 percent of these efforts involved police decoys pretending to be teens, and no actual victims. A typical tactic is for police to post an ad pretending to be a young adult sex worker, and once a man agrees to meet, the "girl" indicates that she's actually only 16 or 17. 在国际共同希望和亚利桑那州立大学于2014年发布的一项研究中,研究者们考察了四个大都市区的终结需求式措施,历时四个月。其中有50-60%涉及警察设套假扮青少年,没有实际的受害者。一个惯常策略是由警察登一个广告,假扮年轻的成年性工作者,要是有男人同意见面,该“女孩”再表明她实际只有16或17岁。 Shared Hope is candid about the fact that most of the men soliciting sex here are not pedophiles and not necessarily seeking out someone underage. But "distinguishing between demand for commercial sex acts with an adult and demand for commercial sex acts with a minor is often an artificial construct," its report asserted. 共同希望坦白承认一个事实,即此中招嫖的绝大部分男人并非恋童癖,也并不一定是在寻觅未成年人。但上述报告断言,“对两种需求加以区分,一边是与成人进行商业化性行为的需求,一边是与未成年人进行商业化性行为的需求,这种做法通常只是一种人为建构”。 So to save the children, we need to prosecute men who have no demonstrated interest in children, because in the future they may seek sex with adults who could actually turn out to be old-looking teens—got that? 因此,为了拯救孩子,我们需要起诉那些还没有表露出他们对儿童有兴趣的人,因为将来他们可能会与一些成人发生性关系,而后者可能只是看起来比较成熟的青少年而已——能看懂这种逻辑不? "One shortcoming of the reverse sting approach is that no live victims are rescued from trafficking," Shared Hope admitted. "But it does take intended perpetrators of child sex trafficking off the Internet and off the streets." 共同希望承认:“这种反向设局策略的一个缺陷是,没能救出陷于贩运之中的真正受害者”。“但它确实能将具有儿童性贩运犯罪意图的人从网上和街上移除。” Bipartisan Paranoia 双党妄想症 A federal war on prostitution doesn't play well with large segments of Americans. Fighting human trafficking, on the other hand, is a feel-good cause. At a 2012 Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) speech, President Barack Obama insisted that we must call human trafficking "by its true name—modern slavery." And what kind of monster would be against ending slavery? Which brings us to another factor driving all this trafficking action: It makes politicians look good. 美国人中的很大部分对一场针对卖淫的联邦战争并不感冒。但是,打击人口贩运,则是一项令人观感良好的事业。在巴拉克·奥巴马总统于2012年“克林顿全球倡议”(CGI)会议上发表的一场演说中,他强调我们必须“按照其真实名称”来称呼人口贩运——“现代奴隶制”。你要是竟然反对结束奴隶制的斗争,你将是何等邪恶?这就给我们带来了驱动以上种种反贩运行动的另一个因素:它能让政客们很好看。 At a time when Republicans and Democrats can barely agree on anything, human trafficking bills have attracted huge bipartisan support. Here is an area where enterprising legislators can attach their names to something likely to pass. And if it doesn't pass, for whatever reason, it's ripe for demagoguery: "My opponent voted against a bill to fight modern slavery!" Tough-on-crime policies, particularly tough-on-drugs policies, used this tactic for decades, until mass incarceration finally lost its luster. 在这个共和党和民主党几乎不能在任何事情上取得一致的时代,人口贩运法案获得了极大的两党共同支持。这是一个法案还有可能获得通过的领域,有进取心的立法者们有可能将其名字附加在这些法案上。如果它没能通过,无论出于任何原因,它都很适合用于煽动群众。“我的对手投票反对了打击现代奴隶制的法案!”严打犯罪的政策,特别是严打毒品的政策,曾经将这个策略用了数十年,直到大规模收监办法最后黯然收场。 Undoubtedly, many lawmakers do legitimately want to help trafficking victims and hold bad guys accountable; political point-scoring is just a happy side effect. But a less happy side effect is a slew of bad laws, violated rights, and squandered money. The federal government has given away scores of millions in grant dollars for this quixotic crusade. 毫无疑问,确实有许多立法者真正地想要帮助贩运受害者,想要将坏人绳之以法;政治上得分只是一个喜闻乐见的副作用。但是还有个不那么喜闻乐见的副作用,即一连串的糟糕法律、受侵犯的权利和金钱浪费。为了这场唐吉可德式的十字军圣战,联邦政府已经拨出了成千上百万美元的款项。 The resources spent on prostitution stings and public awareness campaigns are resources diverted from mundane but more effective strategies for helping at-risk youth, such as adding more beds at emergency shelters. The State Department's latest Trafficking in Persons report notes that "shelter and housing for all trafficking victims, especially male and labor trafficking victims, continue to be insufficient." Advocates routinely say the biggest barrier to escape for many trafficking victims is simply a lack of places to go. 用于钓鱼抓嫖和提高公共觉悟活动的资源,转移自那些在帮助面临危险的青少年方面看起来单调平凡但也更为有效的策略,比如在应急收容所添加更多床位。国务院最新的《人口贩运》报告指出:“对于所有贩运受害者,特别是男性受害者和劳力贩运受害者,收容住所持续不足。”提倡者反复说过,对于许多贩运受害者而言,逃跑的最大障碍很简单,就是无处可去。 "Studies focused on New York City consistently report that homeless youth often trade sex for a place to stay each night because of the absence of available shelter beds," noted the Urban Institute in a report last year. "These figures are even more striking for LGBTQ youth...According to a survey of nearly 1,000 homeless youth in New York City, young men were three times more likely than young women to have traded sex for a place to stay, and LGBTQ youth were seven times more likely than heterosexual youth to have done so. Transgender youth in New York City have been found eight times more likely than non-transgender youth to trade sex for a safe place to stay." “聚焦于纽约市的研究一致表明,无家可归的青少年通常每晚都会以性关系换取住所,因为可用的收容床位不足。” 城市研究所去年发布的一份报告如此写道。“对于LGBTQ青少年群体来说,这个数字更为惊人……根据一份对纽约市近1000名无家可归青少年的调查,少男为找到住所而出卖性关系的可能性要比少女高出3倍,而LGBTQ青少年做这种事的可能性又要比异性恋青少年高出7倍。研究发现,纽约市的变性青少年为了安全住所而出卖性关系的可能性比非变性青少年要高8倍。” What's more, many of the policies in place to fight trafficking actively work against their own stated mission. The criminalization of prostitution keeps sex workers from reporting abuse and keeps clients from coming forward if they suspect someone is being trafficked. Victims themselves are afraid to go to police for fear they'll be arrested for prostitution—and indeed, they often are. 此外,已经实施的、用于打击贩运的许多政策明显对它们意图实现的使命产生了负面作用。卖淫入罪妨碍了性工作者报告所受虐待,并妨碍了怀疑某人遭到贩运的嫖客挺身而出。受害者本人也不敢去找警察,因为担心因卖淫被捕——他们确实经常因此被捕。 In 2012, 579 minors were reported to the federal government as having been arrested for prostitution and commercialized vice. Prosecutors say they need this as a "bargaining chip" to make the victims testify against their perpetrators. We're just using state violence and the threat of incarceration against children in order to save them! 2012年,在联邦政府收到的报告中,有579名未成年人因卖淫和商业化卖春而遭逮捕。检察官称,他们需要这么做,这是种“议价筹码”,能促使受害者出来为其作案者的罪行作证。为了拯救孩子们,我们正在使用国家暴力和收监威胁来对付他们! Another misguided government target is the classified advertising website Backpage, home to many an "escort" ad. Lawmakers accuse the site of "profiting off of child exploitation," even though only a miniscule percentage of Backpage ads—which anyone can put up—are posted by traffickers rather than adult sex workers. 政府的另一个误导性靶子是分类广告网站Backpage,那是许多“应召”广告的老巢。立法者们指责该网站“从对儿童的剥削中牟利”,尽管网站上只有极小部分广告——任何人都可以发布——是由人贩子而非成人性工作者所发布的。 Both legislators and anti-trafficking groups have long been intent on shutting the site down. Yet "street-based sex workers, across studies, face much higher rates of violence than indoor sex workers," says Serpent Libertine, a Sex Workers Outreach Project (SWOP)-Chicago board member. "It's hard to understand how eliminating a low-barrier way to work indoors would promote safety." 立法者和反贩运团体一直以来都想要关闭这个网站。不过,Serpent Libertine却说:“不同研究都表明,站街的性工作者比室内性工作者遭受暴力的可能性大得多”,Libertine是“扩大对性工作者服务项目”(SWOP)芝加哥分支的董事会成员。“通过清除低门槛的室内工作途径,如何能够增进妓女安全呢,这委实难以理解。” Vera Lamarr, also with SWOP-Chicago, pointed out that Backpage cooperates with law enforcement in the U.S. more than many other sites do. "It's hard to understand the desire to take down a website that voluntarily supports efforts against trafficking and willingly cooperates with law enforcement," Lamarr says. "If Backpage closes, their user base could easily migrate to a less cooperative site" or be forced back out on the streets, where traffickers don't leave digital records. 同在SWOP工作的Vera Lamarr指出,Backpage与美国执法机构的合作比其它许多网站都要多。“很难理解为什么要关闭一个主动支持反贩运事业并愿意与执法机构合作的网站”,Lamarr说。“如果Backpage关掉,那他们的用户群可能会轻松地转移到另一个不那么合作的网站去”,或者被迫重新回去站街,街上的人贩子可不会留下什么数字信息记录。 But at least we're getting the really bad guys, right? That's also up for debate. Peruse trafficking arrest records and you'll find many folks like Amber Batt, an Alaska woman who faces 10 to 25 years in federal prison (plus a lifetime on the sex-offender registry) for running an escort service featuring adult women who freely elected to work there. 但至少我们正在抓那些真正的坏蛋,对吧?这一点也有待讨论。细检反贩运逮捕记录,你会找到许多人,比如Amber Batt,她是一位经营应召服务的阿拉斯加妇女,推销的是自愿选择在那里工作的成年妇女,她因此需要在联邦监狱服刑10至25年(再加上终身登记为性犯罪者)。 Or Julie Haner, a 19-year-old Oregon sex worker who was charged with trafficking after taking her 17-year-old friend with her to meet clients. Or Aimee Hart, 42, who served seven months in prison and faces 15 years on the sex-offender registry for driving her adult friend to a prostitution job. Or Hortencia Medeles-Arguello, a 71-year-old Houston bar owner arrested as the leader of a "sex trafficking conspiracy" because she allowed prostitution upstairs. 又如Julie Haner,她是俄勒冈一位19岁性工作者,因带着她17岁的朋友一起见客而被控贩运罪。又如Aimee Hart,42岁,因开车送其成年朋友去卖淫,已在监狱服刑7个月,并将持续15年被登记为性犯罪者。又如Hortencia Medeles-Aguello,休斯顿一位71岁的酒吧店主,因在其楼上容留卖淫,她被当作“性贩运团伙”的头目而遭逮捕。 There's Trenton McLemore, 29, who faces federal sex trafficking charges for "facilitating" the sex work of his 16-year-old girlfriend by purchasing the girl a cellphone and sometimes texting clients for her. He faces a mandatory minimum of 10 years and possible life in prison, thanks to a joint effort of Irving, Texas, police; Homeland Security; and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 还有Trenton McLemore,29岁,他因给他16岁的女友买了一个手机,有时还帮她给客户发短信,被认为“协助”其从事性工作,面临联邦性贩运指控。在德克萨斯Irving市警察、国土安全部、美国移民和海关执法局的共同努力下,他要面对的刚性最短刑期为10年,最高可能为终身监禁。 And Alfonso Kee Peterson, 28, arrested in July for telling a 17-year-old on Facebook that he could help her earn a lot of money from prostitution. The "teen" turned out to be a police decoy. Despite the absence of any real victim or any activity beyond speech, Peterson was charged with one felony count of human trafficking of a minor, one felony count of pandering, and one felony count of attempted pimping; he faces up to 12 years in prison. This important sting apparently warranted the work of several local police departments, the California Highway Patrol, and the FBI. 还有Alfonso Kee Peterson,28岁。因在Facebook上告诉一个17岁女孩他可以帮她通过卖淫赚一大笔,他于今年7月被捕。结果这个“青少年”是个警察诱饵。尽管没有任何真正的受害人,除言论之外也没有任何行动,Peterson仍被控三项重罪罪名,分别是性贩运未成年人、唆使作恶和试图拉皮条;他最高面临12年监禁。这个重要圈套显然让当地几个地方警局、加州公路巡警和FBI的共同工作看起来有了正当理由。 Even if we grant that some of this activity is unsavory, is it really the sort of behavior that warrants lengthy prison sentences and attention from federal agents? Since when is what adults—or even teenagers—willingly do with their genitalia a matter of homeland security? Is this really what President Obama had in mind at the CGI conference when he compared anti-trafficking laws to the Emancipation Proclamation? 即便我们承认上述某些行为确实令人讨厌,它们是否真的属于那种应该处于长期监禁惩罚、需要联邦机构来调查的行为?成年人——或者甚至包括青少年——愿意如何利用他们的生殖器这个问题,从什么时候开始已经成为国土安全事务了?这真的是奥巴马总统在“克林顿全球倡议”会上将反贩运法律和《解放黑奴宣言》作比较时心中所想吗? "To be sure, linking trafficking and slavery could, in theory, surface important similarities between political economies of chattel slavery (largely) of the past, and modern-day trafficking," the American University law professor Janie Chuang wrote in a paper published in the American Journal of International Law last year. 去年,美利坚大学法学教授Janie Chuang在《美国国际法杂志》上发表了一篇文章,其中写道:“诚然,将贩运和奴隶制联系起来,在理论上可以使(大致上)发生于过去的传统奴隶制和现代贩运之间在政治经济结构上的重要相似点浮出水面。” "Drawing out such nuanced comparisons is not, however, the current trajectory of slavery creep. Instead, this version promotes an understanding of trafficking as a problem created and sustained by individual deviant actors, and thus best addressed through aggressive crime control measures." “但是,描绘这种微妙的对照并不是奴隶制恐慌的当下方向。相反,目前的恐慌助推了一种看法,认为贩运是由变态的个体行动者导致和维持的问题,因此最好用严厉的犯罪控制措施来处理。” For a fraction of the money spent on these measures, state governments or private foundations could fund more beds at emergency shelters. The resources that churches, charities, and radical feminists use trying to convince people that all sex workers are victims (and their clients predators) could go toward helping that minority of sex workers who do feel trapped in prostitution with job placement or getting an education. 只需拿出用于上述措施中的资金的一部分,州政府或私人基金就能为应急收容所提供更多床位。教会、慈善组织和激进女权主义者花了大量资源试图告诉人们,所有性工作者都是受害者(且他们的所有顾客都是侵害者),而这些钱本可以用于帮助性工作者中真正觉得自己受困于卖淫的少数人,帮她们介绍工作或接受教育。 For the vast majority of vulnerable sex workers, the greatest barriers to exit aren't ankle-cuffs, isolation, and shadowy kidnappers with guns, but a lack of money, transportation, identification, or other practical things. Is helping with this stuff not sexy enough? 对于绝大多数容易受到伤害的性工作者来说,离开这一行的最大障碍并非脚链、隔离或如影随形的持枪劫持者,而是没有钱、交通工具、身份证明和其它实用之物。在这些事务方面提供帮助是不是不够性感? As it stands, many of those "rescued" by police or abolitionist groups find that their self-appointed saviors can't actually offer them housing, food, a job, or anything else of urgent value in starting a life outside the sex trade. Awareness doesn't pay the bills. 事实上,许多被警察和废奴主义团体所“营救”出来的人发现,她们面对的这些自命救世主实际上不能给她们提供住所、食物、工作或任何其它在性交易之外重新开始生活时紧迫需要之物。觉悟并不能用来支付账单。 Kamylla's story typifies this rescue paradox. A Texas mother who had fallen on hard times after an injury ended her construction career, she started working in prostitution last year. One day, producers from the A&E television series 8 Minutes contacted her, having seen her ad on Backpage. Kamylla的故事代表了这种拯救悖论的典型。Kamylla是一位德克萨斯母亲,她的建筑事业因一场事故而被迫终结,生活陷入困境,去年开始从事卖淫业。某天,因为在Backpage上看到了她的广告,A&E电视台的《八分钟》系列节目联系了她。 Though 8 Minutes was marketed as a reality show where a rogue pastor found and "saved" sex trafficking victims in real time, Kamylla and others (who were selling sexual services willingly, even if their situation wasn't optimal) actually talked with producers several times beforehand. The show promised to help with her overdue rent and finding a job, she says. After filming, they gave her $150 and told her they'd be in touch soon about further assistance. 这档节目是以真人秀的形式播出的,一位流氓牧师在其中发现并及时“拯救”了性贩卖受害者。但事实上,Kamylla和其他几个人(尽管她们的境况并不理想,但均为自愿出售性服务)事前已经多次与制片人交谈过。她说,这个节目答应会帮她解决房租逾期问题,并为她找个工作。拍摄之后,电视台给了她150美元,告诉她他们很快就会与她联系,商量后续援助问题。 They never called. When Kamylla followed up, the producers referred her to the same unhelpful social services she'd already tried on her own. Eventually Kamylla returned to Backpage, posting an ad using the same phone number that the producers had used to contact her. The first call she received was from an undercover cop, who arranged to meet her and another sex worker at a motel. Once the women agreed to oral sex for money, "he opened the door and nine police officers came inside the room," she says. Both women were taken to jail and booked on prostitution charges. 他们再没有给Kamylla打过电话。她去追究,制片方就让她去找她自己已经试过、但并不管用的社会服务机构。最终,Kamylla回到了Backpage,所登广告上使用的电话号码正是制片方曾拿来联络她的那个。她接到的第一个电话来自一个卧底警察,后者约她和另外一个性工作者在一家汽车旅馆见面。两个女人才答应收钱给他做口交,“他就把门打开了,一下进来9个警官”,她说。两人均被关进监狱,并以被控卖淫而被登记在案。 In a world with no gray areas—one where traffickers are always evil predators and victims always utterly helpless, where sex workers are never ambivalently engaged with their work, and the bright line between teendom and adulthood is always apparent and meaningful—in this world, the raid-and-rescue model of addressing sex trafficking may make some sense. You don't give a girl chained to a bed a condom and call it a day. 在一个没有灰色地带的世界里——里面的人贩子总是邪恶的侵害者,受害者总是彻底无助,性工作者从事其工作从未进退两难,青少年和成年之间的明确界限总是清楚明晰——在这样的世界中,处理性贩运问题时采用“搜捕拯救”模式可能还有道理。你不会丢个避孕套给一个被锁在床上的女孩,然后收工回家。 But in the world as it exists, sometimes a 17-year-old runaway chooses prostitution because it's better than living in an abusive foster home. Sometimes a sex worker gives all her money to a man because she loves him or thinks she needs him, or that he needs her. Sometimes a struggling mother doesn't love the sex trade, but finds it the best option to feed her kids. 但在现实存在的世界中,有时候,17岁的离家出走者会选择卖淫,因为这比生活于一个残暴虐待的寄养家庭要好。有时候性工作者会把她所有的钱财全部交给一个男人,因为她爱他,或者觉得她需要他或他需要她。有时候,一个苦苦挣扎的母亲并不喜欢性交易,但她觉得这是养活她孩子的最好办法。 Sometimes an immigrant would rather give hand jobs to strangers than face whatever drove her to leave her own country. Harm reduction strategies like handing out condoms in popular prostitution areas, offering STD tests, or even just facilitating online advertising (rather than street work) could prove lifesaving to these women. 有时候,某个移民宁愿给陌生人手交,也不愿意面对那些驱使她离开自己祖国的事情。降低危害的种种策略,比如在卖淫盛行地区分发避孕套,提供性传播疾病检查,甚至仅仅只是促进网上广告(而非站街工作),对这些女人来说,都可能是活命之举。 Yet when it comes to the way we talk about commercial sex, you have to be a victim or a predator. We've created a narrative with no room for nuance. We traffic not in facts but in melodrama. In TV broadcasts, campus panels, and congressional hearings, the most lurid and sensational stories are held up as representative. Legislators assure us that their intent is noble and pure. 但在我们讨论商业化性行为的方式里头,你必须要么是受害者,要么是侵害者。我们所创造出来的是一种没有给微妙差别留下任何空间的叙事。我们不是在事实中、而是在传奇剧中穿梭。在电视节目上、在校园会议上、在国会听证上,被拿出来作为代表的都是那些最为耸人听闻、最具轰动效应的故事。立法者向我们保证,他们的意图高贵而纯洁。 But remember: Tough-on-drugs legislation was never crafted or advertised as a means to send poor people to prison for life over a few grams of weed. It was a way to crack down on drug kingpins, violent gang leaders, evil crack fiends, and all those who would lure innocent children into addiction, doom, and death. 但是,请记住:立法严打毒品,从来就不是为了仅因几克大麻就把穷人终身关进监狱,这类法律并不是为此制定的,也没人这样宣称。它是为了镇压大毒枭、暴力团伙头目、邪恶的可卡因成瘾者和所有那些会引诱无辜少年毒品成瘾、遭遇厄运、走向死亡的人。 Yet in mandating more police attention for drug crimes, giving law enforcement new technological tools and military gear with which to fight it, and adding ever-stricter prison sentences and punishments for drug offenders, we unleashed a corrupt, authoritarian, biased, and fiscally untenable mess on American cities without any success in decreasing drug rates or the violence and danger surrounding an activity that human beings stubbornly refuse to give up. 但是,通过责令警方更加注意毒品犯罪,通过赋予执法机构新的技术工具和军需用品以打击毒品犯罪,通过前所未有地提高毒品犯罪分子的刑期和惩罚,我们在美国各城市释放出了一种腐败、专断、偏执并且在财政上无法维持的糟糕局面,却没能取得任何成功,无论是在减少毒品用量方面,还是在减少围绕这一人们坚决拒绝抛弃的活动而产生的暴力和危险方面。 Unless we can learn the lessons of our past failed crusades, the war on sex trafficking could result in every bit as much misery as its panicky predecessors. Here's hoping it won't take us another four decades to realize that this prohibition doesn't work either. 除非我们能从过去失败的圣战中吸取教训,反性贩运的战争就有可能以一种完全一模一样的结局收尾,其可悲之处与其恐慌前例会是一样的。只希望我们不会又一次再花40年才能意识到,这种禁令同样行不通。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

拼命灌钱

【2016-08-24】

@whigzhou: 当前各国(特别是欧日)央行往系统里拼命灌钱、毫无节制抬高杠杆的劲头实在有点疯狂了吧,照这么买下去,流通中的企业债全进央行了,日本央行甚至直接买股票,到明年大企业都变国企了,想想不久前他们还在痛责私人银行家头脑发热,事实证明,论无视风险制造泡沫的胆量,有谁比得过政府呢? ​​​​

 

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【2016-08-24】 @whigzhou: 当前各国(特别是欧日)央行往系统里拼命灌钱、毫无节制抬高杠杆的劲头实在有点疯狂了吧,照这么买下去,流通中的企业债全进央行了,日本央行甚至直接买股票,到明年大企业都变国企了,想想不久前他们还在痛责私人银行家头脑发热,事实证明,论无视风险制造泡沫的胆量,有谁比得过政府呢? ​​​​  
活得好好的

【2016-07-19】

@隐藏的火星人:我就想问辉总,兼顾后果和公平的最好的策略是什么,对待绿化

@whigzhou: 宪法容许范围内可做的很多,比如停止穆斯林移民,犯罪移民驱逐出境(像瑞士),取缔国内赞助恐怖主义的组织,禁止国内政治组织接受伊斯兰主义组织或政权(比如沙特政府)的捐款,在公职人员中展开忠诚调查(即麦卡锡行动)

@whigzhou: 从佛罗里达Boca Raton伊斯兰中心 (ICBR)的例子可看出有多少早该做事情没做,ICBR与恐怖组织的关系确凿无疑,毫不掩饰,十几年来屡屡被联邦政府抓包和定罪,却始终活得好好的,不久前还被棕榈滩县选为投票点,直到本次惨案发生遭大量抗议后才换地方 http://t.cn/RtzHREz

@w(more...)

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【2016-07-19】 @隐藏的火星人:我就想问辉总,兼顾后果和公平的最好的策略是什么,对待绿化 @whigzhou: 宪法容许范围内可做的很多,比如停止穆斯林移民,犯罪移民驱逐出境(像瑞士),取缔国内赞助恐怖主义的组织,禁止国内政治组织接受伊斯兰主义组织或政权(比如沙特政府)的捐款,在公职人员中展开忠诚调查(即麦卡锡行动) @whigzhou: 从佛罗里达Boca Raton伊斯兰中心 ([[ICBR]])的例子可看出有多少早该做事情没做,ICBR与恐怖组织的关系确凿无疑,毫不掩饰,十几年来屡屡被联邦政府抓包和定罪,却始终活得好好的,不久前还被棕榈滩县选为投票点,直到本次惨案发生遭大量抗议后才换地方 http://t.cn/RtzHREz @whigzhou: 类似例子比比皆是,几乎是常态 【2016-08-24】 @whigzhou: 终于有动作了  
Pinker式乐观主义

【2016-08-17】

@whigzhou: 《危险、担忧与公共政策》 某类危险的死亡几率越高,就越“值得担心”,也越值得在公共政策上得到优先处理?

@whigzhou: Pinker式乐观主义就是出于类似的无知,仅以死亡率/谋杀率之类简单数字衡量公共安全,忽略了安全问题的很多重要方面,举个简单例子:A/B两个城市谋杀率同为千分之五,A的谋杀案均匀分布于全市,B的全部集中于其第9区,两市市民对公共安全的感觉完全不同,而且这种不同十(more...)

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【2016-08-17】 @whigzhou: 《危险、担忧与公共政策》 某类危险的死亡几率越高,就越“值得担心”,也越值得在公共政策上得到优先处理? @whigzhou: Pinker式乐观主义就是出于类似的无知,仅以死亡率/谋杀率之类简单数字衡量公共安全,忽略了安全问题的很多重要方面,举个简单例子:A/B两个城市谋杀率同为千分之五,A的谋杀案均匀分布于全市,B的全部集中于其第9区,两市市民对公共安全的感觉完全不同,而且这种不同十分合理。 @whigzhou: 再极端一点,假如B市的谋杀案全部属于黑帮火拼,那么该市良民就会(十分合理的)觉得这个城市非常安全 @whigzhou: 这就是为什么面向非特定人群的恐怖攻击,尽管造成的伤亡对社会总他杀率的贡献率很低,但仍足以引起恐慌,并值得被当作重大安全问题对待,的理由所在
梅姨

【2016-07-15】

@whigzhou: 神速,脱欧大臣David Davis公布了离欧经济战略 http://t.cn/R5FEuRb Trade deals. Tax cuts. And taking time before triggering Article 50. A Brexit economic strategy for Britain

@_bear_:新上任的女首相怎么样?从就任演讲看似乎并不怎么靠谱呢

@whigzhou: 立场跟卡梅隆差不多,你觉得不靠谱的地方(我猜)其实是延(more...)

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【2016-07-15】 @whigzhou: 神速,脱欧大臣David Davis公布了离欧经济战略 http://t.cn/R5FEuRb Trade deals. Tax cuts. And taking time before triggering Article 50. A Brexit economic strategy for Britain @_bear_:新上任的女首相怎么样?从就任演讲看似乎并不怎么靠谱呢 @whigzhou: 立场跟卡梅隆差不多,你觉得不靠谱的地方(我猜)其实是延续了卡梅隆的纲领,即在社会议题上彻底放弃保守立场(效果是消灭了这些议题),福利问题上从撒切尔立场后撤,走所谓『一族』路线 @whigzhou: 除了这几点,在自由贸易、财政开支、税收、管制等议题上,都算得上亲市场,比川普好多了 @whigzhou: 我的理想人选是最撒切尔主义的Michael Gove,可惜党内支持不足,Gove是那种会向医疗和教育这两个福利主义坚固堡垒发动攻击的人,这对于卡梅隆和梅姨都是不可想象的,目前政治气候下可能也得不到支持,而目前这个大转变最需要的是党内团结,所以我觉得在可能结果里,梅姨还是相当理想的。 @whigzhou: 最可喜的是,梅姨在脱欧问题上完全没有拖泥带水,这一点从原帖所转声明中可以看得很清楚,几个日程期限设定都比之前大家预期的要早 【2016-07-17】 @whigzhou: 梅姨废掉了暖球部,表态支持低价能源开发,赞 http://t.cn/Rthcb1C @whigzhou: 梅姨组建的脱欧三驾马车非常给力,脱欧注定会占据这届政府的大部分注意力,她在社会议题上的倾向就没那么重要了,形势所迫,在经济方面恢复信心将是优先考虑,只要她显示出对这点的领悟,便值得看好