2018年02月发表的文章(3)

释放母爱

【2016-05-18】

@Helen干杯:关于保守派以高生育率取胜, 恐怕难。现在生育率高的时移民,且移民多为民主党所虏。

@whigzhou: 亚裔移民生育率很低,比白人低,第二代更低,拉丁移民第一代生育率很高(但也没摩门教徒高),第二代就高得不多了

@whigzhou: 不同种族背景移民前三代生育率:http://t.cn/RqFqmHV

@whigzhou: 当前亚裔移民年度增量已超过拉丁裔,墨西哥移民已开始净流出,若边境控制收紧,还会继续降低,所以移民生育率高这个判断已不再成立

@whigzhou: 半只烤鸭下肚,再说说刚才那个生育率的问题。

1)要区分生育意愿和实际生育率,前者是行为倾向,后者是行为表现,

2)所谓行为倾向就是将外部条件映射为实际行为的函数,

3)两个在某件事上有着不同行为倾向的人,对应两个行为函数,

4)这两个函数在某个区间可以是重合的,

5)这意味着,拥有不同生育意愿的人,在区间A有着相同生育率,在区间B则不同

(more...)
标签: | | | |
7150
【2016-05-18】 @Helen干杯:关于保守派以高生育率取胜, 恐怕难。现在生育率高的时移民,且移民多为民主党所虏。 @whigzhou: 亚裔移民生育率很低,比白人低,第二代更低,拉丁移民第一代生育率很高(但也没摩门教徒高),第二代就高得不多了 @whigzhou: 不同种族背景移民前三代生育率:http://t.cn/RqFqmHV @whigzhou: 当前亚裔移民年度增量已超过拉丁裔,墨西哥移民已开始净流出,若边境控制收紧,还会继续降低,所以移民生育率高这个判断已不再成立 @whigzhou: 半只烤鸭下肚,再说说刚才那个生育率的问题。 1)要区分生育意愿和实际生育率,前者是行为倾向,后者是行为表现, 2)所谓行为倾向就是将外部条件映射为实际行为的函数, 3)两个在某件事上有着不同行为倾向的人,对应两个行为函数, 4)这两个函数在某个区间可以是重合的, 5)这意味着,拥有不同生育意愿的人,在区间A有着相同生育率,在区间B则不同 6)决定生育率的行为函数有着众多参数,姑且只考虑其中三个:A)收入,B)迫使个人生儿育女的社会压力,C)与生养儿女竞争时间(特别是女性时间)和金钱的各种其他活动的机会(或曰诱惑), 7)现代化和城市化尽管提高了收入,但也大幅降低了不生育带来的成本B,并大幅提高了生育带来的成本C, 8)与自由派相比,保守派对成本B更敏感,对成本C更不敏感, 9)所以,即便两种生育函数在传统条件下接近重合,可是当B和C大幅改变时,其行为表现上的差距就拉开了 10)同性恋的情况与之相似(可能表现得更纯粹更极端),在传统社会的巨大社会压力下,同性恋尽管缺乏意愿,实际上多数也会结婚生子,换句话说,他们的行为函数和其他人的函数在传统区间取值很接近甚至大致重合,但在现代区间就形同天壤了, 11)那些不肯生或生的很少的人,绝大多数并非不喜欢孩子,而是因为一方面促使其生育的社会压力消失了,同时自己又经不住各种与孩子抢时间的现代诱惑,结果她们便转向各种帮助其释放母爱的廉价替代品,于是便有了猫狗党和圣母婊。 【2018-2-15】 昨天发现这一逻辑在经济学里已经有了名字,叫动机挤出([[motivation crowding]])或过度正当化效应([[overjustification effect]]),只是还没人将它运用于生育率问题,目前的应用场景也都不涉及遗传改变,实际上,这是考察文化-基因协同进化的很好切入点。 鲍德温效应和动机挤出是文化-基因协同进化的两种很相似但方向恰好相反的效应,前者由文化条件对遗传特征作同向拉动,后者作替代。
What ‘mean’ means?

‘Mean’ is a no mean word.

This is why people like to use it as a means to convey so many meanings, even the ‘meaning’ proper.

A mean cook can be a mean creature, which means his character is wid(more...)

标签:
7865
'Mean' is a no mean word. This is why people like to use it as a means to convey so many meanings, even the 'meaning' proper. A mean cook can be a mean creature, which means his character is widely diverged from the mean value of the statistical distribution, but meanwhile, a mean cook must be an absolutely no mean cook, which means he cooks no mean dishes. If you are confused, feel free to ask -- 'What you mean?' Is the inventor of this mean word a mean man or a mean man or a mean man? I'm not sure. This is a mean question. The only thing I'm sure of is that he must be really mean with his lexicon.
[作文]Why Plumbing Is So Expensive in Australia?

(上周英语课上老师布置了个作业:自己选择一个议题,先给两小时做研究,然后写一篇议论文章,这是我做过的最长的英语写作题,之前的都不超过300 words,很吃力不过挺有收获。)

Why Plumbing Is So Expensive in Australia?
by Egbert Tzoe
8 Feb 2018

Plumbing is extremely expensive in Australia. According to 9news, it costs $78.40 an hour on average, the highest among all kinds of trades, while a lawyer service costs only $37 an hour.[1] By contrast, an average American plumber charges $31.61(usd$24.74) an hour.[2]

The direct cause of this situation is quite straightforward: there are too few plumbers in this country. Year by year, fewer and fewer young people are willing to become a plumber. Perhaps the most revealing fact is that the average age of Australian plumbers is 55, while the overall workforce average is 38. As Mr Paddy McCrudden, an officer of Plumbing Trades Employees Union, says, “plumbers are fast becoming the dad’s army.”[3]

But why? What prevents such a high wage from attracting more young (or not so young) people into this business? There are no obvious answers, but we have some clues.

Higher education was (and is) booming in recent decades. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, proportion of people aged 25-34 with a bachelor or higher degree increased from(more...)

标签: | | | | |
7857
(上周英语课上老师布置了个作业:自己选择一个议题,先给两小时做研究,然后写一篇议论文章,这是我做过的最长的英语写作题,之前的都不超过300 words,很吃力不过挺有收获。) Why Plumbing Is So Expensive in Australia? by Egbert Tzoe 8 Feb 2018 Plumbing is extremely expensive in Australia. According to 9news, it costs $78.40 an hour on average, the highest among all kinds of trades, while a lawyer service costs only $37 an hour.[1] By contrast, an average American plumber charges $31.61(usd$24.74) an hour.[2] The direct cause of this situation is quite straightforward: there are too few plumbers in this country. Year by year, fewer and fewer young people are willing to become a plumber. Perhaps the most revealing fact is that the average age of Australian plumbers is 55, while the overall workforce average is 38. As Mr Paddy McCrudden, an officer of Plumbing Trades Employees Union, says, “plumbers are fast becoming the dad's army.”[3] But why? What prevents such a high wage from attracting more young (or not so young) people into this business? There are no obvious answers, but we have some clues. Higher education was (and is) booming in recent decades. According to Australian Bureau of Statistics, proportion of people aged 25-34 with a bachelor or higher degree increased from 27% in 2004 to 37.3% in 2015.[4] As we can imagine, university graduates tend to have a white-collar or managerial or creative job. They would find a hard, dirty and muscular plumbing job unattractive. It’s simply incompatible with their self-identity. In addition, as more girls go to university, plumbers, as well as other heavy manual labor workers, are becoming less popular in the marriage market, because people consistently choose their partners who have an educational background similar to that of themselves. Like other heavy trades, plumbing is highly masculine. An evidence for this is that more than 99% plumbers are male.[5] But, sadly (or nicely, depends on your taste), masculinity has been declining rapidly for half a century in the Western World, especially in its developed part. Among other evidence are two facts: First, average sperm count in men has dropped 50% between 1974 and 2011.[6] Second, maybe not coincidentally, all the tough guy actors have disappeared from the movie or TV screens since mid-1990s.[7] Well then, how can we fix this? Less uni education? Many people would surely be unhappy or even riot I guess. More visas for plumbers? It doesn’t work. In fact, there is a large and sufficient visa quota for plumbers already, 5507 in 2018 alone, but only 4 or 0.07% of them are filled to date. By contrast, 51 of 2675 (1.9%) visa vacancies for chefs, 2955 of 6202 (47%) for programmers, 2633 of 4785 (55%) for accountants, are filled during the same period.[8] Obviously there are not so many foreign plumbers who are interested in and qualified for migrating to Australia. I think English is the main barrier, because as other tradies, plumbers tend to receive less education than other skilled visa applicants. So maybe lowering the English requirement can be a cure, but I suspect it would help a lot. Maybe there is no solution, or maybe high cost of plumbing is not a problem at all. After all, tough men is an endangered species nowadays, but meanwhile, despite the great advance in automatic technologies in recent years, there is still much work needed for them to do, hence it seems not so unfair to pay a high price for these tough guy survivors. Even better, this high price forces us aussies to do many jobs by ourselves, and get a lot of joys. So let it be.   References: [1] http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/careers/plumbers-electricians-australias-richest-tradies-charging-more-than-the-average-lawyer/news-story/4fee7c5920ff4624e53c5ca20f99e3cb [2] https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes472152.htm [3] http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/australias-most-wanted-jobs-tech-heads-health-staff-and-plumbers/news-story/5aed73cf949f668df49be25d5f8b67fe [4] https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/australias-universities/key-facts-and-data#.Wn_ZEiVub4Z [5] http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/ABS@.nsf/2f762f95845417aeca25706c00834efa/4ce9a706f8b1bba7ca2570ec000e3635!OpenDocument [6] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sperm-count-dropping-in-western-world/ [7] http://www.weirdrepublic.com/episode159.htm [8] http://deltaimmigration.com.au/Plumber-General/334111.htm