2015年07月发表的文章(11)

[译文]黑暗时代神话

The Dark Age Myth: An Atheist Reviews “God’s Philosophers”
黑暗时代神话:一位无神论者评《上帝的哲学家》

作者:Tim O‘Neill @ 2009-10-17
译者:Ghost(@ Ghostmarine)
校对:Drunkplane(@暂时只看书不旅行了-zny),慕白(@李凤阳他说)
来源:Strange Notionshttp://www.strangenotions.com/gods-philosophers/

My interest in Medieval science was substantially sparked by one book. Way back in 1991, when I was an impoverished and often starving post-graduate student at the University of Tasmania, I found a copy of Robert T. Gunther’s  Astrolabes of the World – 598 folio pages of meticulously catalogued Islamic, Medieval and Renaissance astrolabes with photos, diagrams, star lists and a wealth of other information. I found it, appropriately and not coincidentally, in Michael Sprod’s  Astrolabe Books – up the stairs in one of the beautiful old sandstone warehouses that line  Salamanca Place on Hobart’s waterfront.

我对中世纪科学的兴趣其实源于一本书。早在1991年时,我还在塔斯马尼亚大学读研究生,生活穷困潦倒,过着有一顿没一顿的日子。算不上多么机缘巧合,就在霍巴特(Hobart)河岸边萨拉曼卡广场(Salamanca Place)一间优美古老的砂岩建筑二楼,Michael Sprod的星盘书店,我发现了一本Robert T. Gunther的《世界星盘》(Astrolabes of the World)。实际上,我认为在这家书店发现这本书真是再恰当不过了。这本书足有598页,细致地将伊斯兰、中世纪,以及文艺复兴时期的星盘收集编目,配有图片、图表、星表,以及丰富的相关信息。

Unfortunately the book cost $200, which at that stage was the equivalent to what I lived on for a month. But Michael was used to selling books to poverty-stricken students, so I went without lunch, put down a deposit of $10 and came back weekly for several months to pay off as much as I could afford and eventually got to take it home, wrapped in brown paper in a way that only Hobart bookshops seem to bother with anymore. There are few pleasures greater than finally getting your hands on a book you’ve been wanting to own and read for a long time.

非常不幸,这本书要价二百,相当于我那时一个月的开销。好在Michael经常卖书给穷学生,所以我没吃午饭,放下十块定金,接下来几个月,每周过来一趟,付上一笔钱,有多少就付多少,最终,把它裹在棕色的包装纸中搬回家。现在想来,好像只有霍巴特的书店愿意在卖书时那么劳烦地用纸把书包好。手抚摸在长久以来日思月想、梦寐以求的一本书上,那种乐趣,世间少有。

I had another experience of that particular pleasure when I received my copy of James Hannam’s God’s Philosophers: How the Medieval World Laid the Foundations of Modern Science a couple of weeks ago.

几周前,收到手头这本James Hannam的《上帝的哲学家:中世纪如何为现代科学奠基》(God’s Philosophers: How the Medieval World Laid the Foundations of Modern Science),我又一次体验到了这种独特乐趣。

For years I’ve been toying with the idea of creating a website on Medieval science and technology to bring the recent research on the subject to a more general audience and to counter the biased myths about it being a Dark Age of irrational superstition. Thankfully I can now cross that off my to do list, because Hannam’s superb book has done the job for me and in fine style.

很多年来,我一直想着要建个网站,关注中世纪科学与技术,向普通读者介绍有关这一主题的新近研究,同时反驳各种偏颇的神话,认为中世纪是个迷信横行的“黑暗时代”。现在我终于可以不再操心这项工程,因为Hannam这部杰出的作品已经完成了这个任务,而且完成得非常漂亮。

The Christian Dark Age and Other Hysterical Myths
基督教黑暗时代以及其他歇斯底里的神话

One of the occupational hazards of being an atheist and secular humanist who hangs around on discussion boards is to encounter a staggering level of historical illiteracy. I like to console myself that many of the people on such boards have come to their atheism via the study of science and so, even if they are quite learned in things like geology and biology, usually have a grasp of history stu(more...)

标签: | |
5668
The Dark Age Myth: An Atheist Reviews “God’s Philosophers” 黑暗时代神话:一位无神论者评《上帝的哲学家》 作者:Tim O‘Neill @ 2009-10-17 译者:Ghost(@ Ghostmarine) 校对:Drunkplane(@暂时只看书不旅行了-zny),慕白(@李凤阳他说) 来源:Strange Notionshttp://www.strangenotions.com/gods-philosophers/ My interest in Medieval science was substantially sparked by one book. Way back in 1991, when I was an impoverished and often starving post-graduate student at the University of Tasmania, I found a copy of Robert T. Gunther's  Astrolabes of the World - 598 folio pages of meticulously catalogued Islamic, Medieval and Renaissance astrolabes with photos, diagrams, star lists and a wealth of other information. I found it, appropriately and not coincidentally, in Michael Sprod's  Astrolabe Books - up the stairs in one of the beautiful old sandstone warehouses that line  Salamanca Place on Hobart's waterfront. 我对中世纪科学的兴趣其实源于一本书。早在1991年时,我还在塔斯马尼亚大学读研究生,生活穷困潦倒,过着有一顿没一顿的日子。算不上多么机缘巧合,就在霍巴特(Hobart)河岸边萨拉曼卡广场(Salamanca Place)一间优美古老的砂岩建筑二楼,Michael Sprod的星盘书店,我发现了一本Robert T. Gunther的《世界星盘》(Astrolabes of the World)。实际上,我认为在这家书店发现这本书真是再恰当不过了。这本书足有598页,细致地将伊斯兰、中世纪,以及文艺复兴时期的星盘收集编目,配有图片、图表、星表,以及丰富的相关信息。 Unfortunately the book cost $200, which at that stage was the equivalent to what I lived on for a month. But Michael was used to selling books to poverty-stricken students, so I went without lunch, put down a deposit of $10 and came back weekly for several months to pay off as much as I could afford and eventually got to take it home, wrapped in brown paper in a way that only Hobart bookshops seem to bother with anymore. There are few pleasures greater than finally getting your hands on a book you've been wanting to own and read for a long time. 非常不幸,这本书要价二百,相当于我那时一个月的开销。好在Michael经常卖书给穷学生,所以我没吃午饭,放下十块定金,接下来几个月,每周过来一趟,付上一笔钱,有多少就付多少,最终,把它裹在棕色的包装纸中搬回家。现在想来,好像只有霍巴特的书店愿意在卖书时那么劳烦地用纸把书包好。手抚摸在长久以来日思月想、梦寐以求的一本书上,那种乐趣,世间少有。 I had another experience of that particular pleasure when I received my copy of James Hannam's God's Philosophers: How the Medieval World Laid the Foundations of Modern Science a couple of weeks ago. 几周前,收到手头这本James Hannam的《上帝的哲学家:中世纪如何为现代科学奠基》(God's Philosophers: How the Medieval World Laid the Foundations of Modern Science),我又一次体验到了这种独特乐趣。 For years I've been toying with the idea of creating a website on Medieval science and technology to bring the recent research on the subject to a more general audience and to counter the biased myths about it being a Dark Age of irrational superstition. Thankfully I can now cross that off my to do list, because Hannam's superb book has done the job for me and in fine style. 很多年来,我一直想着要建个网站,关注中世纪科学与技术,向普通读者介绍有关这一主题的新近研究,同时反驳各种偏颇的神话,认为中世纪是个迷信横行的“黑暗时代”。现在我终于可以不再操心这项工程,因为Hannam这部杰出的作品已经完成了这个任务,而且完成得非常漂亮。

The Christian Dark Age and Other Hysterical Myths 基督教黑暗时代以及其他歇斯底里的神话

One of the occupational hazards of being an atheist and secular humanist who hangs around on discussion boards is to encounter a staggering level of historical illiteracy. I like to console myself that many of the people on such boards have come to their atheism via the study of science and so, even if they are quite learned in things like geology and biology, usually have a grasp of history stunted at about high school level. I generally do this because the alternative is to admit that the average person's grasp of history and how history is studied is so utterly feeble as to be totally depressing. 作为一个流连于各大讨论版的无神论者和世俗人文主义者,“职业危害”之一就是会遇到数不胜数的历史盲。我时常宽慰自己,这些讨论版上很多人通过学习科学知识成为了无神论者,因此即使他们在地质、生物这样的领域相当精通,但在历史方面的教育却没有跟上,也不过就是高中生水平。我如果不这样安慰自己,那就要承认,一般人对历史相当缺乏理解,对历史的研究方法几乎一无所知,这种情形非常令人沮丧。 So, alongside the regular airings of the hoary old myth that the Bible was collated at the Council of Nicea, the tedious internet-based "Jesus never existed!" nonsense, or otherwise intelligent people spouting pseudo historical claims that would make even Dan Brown snort in derision, the myth that the Catholic Church caused the Dark Ages and the Medieval Period was a scientific wasteland is regularly wheeled, creaking, into the sunlight for another trundle around the arena. 我们都听说过一些传言,比方说《圣经》由尼西亚会议(Council of Nicea)编修,互联网上“耶稣从未存在!”这样的胡说八道甚嚣尘上,还有一些本来挺聪明的人却胡诌出连丹·布朗(Dan Brown)都嗤之以鼻的伪历史断言,与这些耳熟能详的老套神话相提并论的,还有人说天主教会引发黑暗时代、中世纪是科学荒漠,这种神话时不时被人花样翻新之后重新拉回论战的舞台。 The myth goes that the Greeks and Romans were wise and rational types who loved science and were on the brink of doing all kinds of marvelous things (inventing full-scale steam engines is one example that is usually, rather fancifully, invoked) until Christianity came along. Christianity then banned all learning and rational thought and ushered in the Dark Ages. Then an iron-fisted theocracy, backed by a Gestapo-style Inquisition, prevented any science or questioning inquiry from happening until Leonardo da Vinci invented intelligence and the wondrous Renaissance saved us all from Medieval darkness. 这种神话大概是说,希腊人、罗马人聪明理性热爱科学,基本上已经快要发明出各种奇观壮举(通常会梦呓似地举出发明完整蒸汽机这样的例子),直到基督教降临。基督教随后禁绝了所有学问和理性思考,开启了黑暗时代。接下来,在盖世太保般的宗教裁判所支持下,神权实施了铁腕统治,杜绝任何科学或者质疑的出现,直到达芬奇发明智慧,伟大的文艺复兴将我们从中世纪的黑暗中拯救。【译注:话说我中学时候就是这样觉得的。】 The online manifestations of this curiously quaint but seemingly indefatigable idea range from the touchingly clumsy to the utterly shocking, but it remains one of those things that "everybody knows" and permeates modern culture. 这种观点稀奇古怪,但同时颇有生命力,其在网上的表现时而让人觉得粗陋不堪,时而又让人深感震惊,然而它终究取得了“众人皆知”的地位,渗透进现代文化的方方面面。 A recent episode of Family Guy had Stewie and Brian enter a futuristic alternative world where, it was explained, things were so advanced because Christianity didn't destroy learning, usher in the Dark Ages and stifle science. The writers didn't see the need to explain what Stewie meant - they assumed everyone understood. 最近一集《恶搞之家》(Family Guy)里,Stewie和Brian进入了另一个未来主义的异次元世界,那里一切非常先进,因为基督教并没有摧毁学问,开创黑暗时代,扼杀科学。剧集中没有解释Stewie的观点,因为在编剧看来,大家都懂。 About once every 3-4 months on forums like RichardDawkins.net we get some discussion where someone invokes the old "Conflict Thesis". That evolves into the usual ritual kicking of the Middle Ages as a benighted intellectual wasteland where humanity was shackled to superstition and oppressed by cackling minions of the Evil Old Catholic Church. 类似RichardDawkins.net这样的论坛,每隔三四个月,就会有人提起这个老生常谈的“冲突论”(Conflict Thesis),令大家纷纷卷入讨论之中。一般习惯上会将中世纪看成蒙昧的智识荒漠,邪恶的古代天主教会下属走狗们一脸阴笑,肆意欺压,人性受到束缚,沉溺于迷信之中。 The hoary standards are brought out on cue. Giordiano Bruno is presented as a wise and noble martyr for science instead of the irritating mystical New Age kook he actually was. Hypatia is presented as another such martyr and the mythical Christian destruction of the Great Library of Alexandria is spoken of in hushed tones, despite both these ideas being totally untrue. The Galileo Affair is ushered in as evidence of a brave scientist standing up to the unscientific obscurantism of the Church, despite that case being as much about science as it was about Scripture. 这种时候,一些霉迹斑斑的旧旗帜又会被扛出来。布鲁诺被推为睿智而尊贵的科学殉道者,而非新时代让人恼火的神秘主义傻瓜,要知道后者才是他的本来面目。希帕提娅成为传说中的另一个悲情殉道者,是基督徒焚毁了亚历山大大图书馆的故事也在低声流传,然而,这二者都是彻头彻尾的不实之词。伽利略事件,也被看成是勇敢的科学家抵抗教会蒙昧主义的证据,尽管那起案子中,牵扯到的科学纷争并不比《圣经》纷争来的少。 And, almost without fail, someone digs up a graphic (see below), which I have come to dub "The Most Wrong Thing On the Internet Ever", and to flourish it triumphantly as though it is proof of something other than the fact that most people are utterly ignorant of history and unable to see that something called "Scientific Advancement" can't be measured, let alone plotted on a graph. 而且,几乎无一例外,总有人会挖出一张图(如下),趾高气昂地挥舞,好像它能够证明点什么似的。这张被我称作“互联网有史以来错得最离谱的东西”,只不过证明了绝大部分人对历史一无所知,根本没有意识到所谓“科学进步”这种玩意根本无法度量,更别说像这样有模有样地标在图标上了。 DarkAgesIt's not hard to kick this nonsense to pieces, especially since the people presenting it know next to nothing about history and have simply picked up these strange ideas from websites and popular books. The assertions collapse as soon as you hit them with hard evidence. 将这种胡说八道彻底击碎并不困难,尤其是因为,能够亮出这张图的人,往往对历史一无所知,仅仅从某些网站或者通俗书籍中摘下这些千奇百怪的观点。只要亮出强有力的证据,这些看法便会分崩离析。 I love to totally stump these propagators by asking them to present me with the name of one - just one - scientist burned, persecuted, or oppressed for their science in the Middle Ages. They always fail to come up with any. They usually try to crowbar Galileo back into the Middle Ages, which is amusing considering he was a contemporary of Descartes. 我倒挺喜欢刁难这些大话家,请他们举出中世纪一个因为从事研究而被烧死、被迫害或者被压迫的科学家的名字,一个就好。他们总是一筹莫展,常常会把伽利略拽回中世纪,可只要一想到其实他和笛卡尔处在同一时代,就让人觉得好笑。 When asked why they have failed to produce any such scientists given the Church was apparently so busily oppressing them, they often resort to claiming that the Evil Old Church did such a good job of oppression that everyone was too scared to practice science. 再问问,既然教廷这么忙于压迫科学家,为什么他们却举不出这样的例子,他们通常会这么辩称,邪恶的古代教廷压迫工作做得实在太好,每个人都吓得瑟瑟发抖,不敢从事科学研究。 By the time I produce a laundry list of Medieval scientists - like Albertus Magnus, Robert Grosseteste, Roger Bacon, John Peckham, Duns Scotus, Thomas Bradwardine, Walter Burley, William Heytesbury, Richard Swineshead, John Dumbleton, Richard of Wallingford, Nicholas Oresme, Jean Buridan and Nicholas of Cusa- and ask why these men were happily pursuing science in the Middle Ages without molestation from the Church, my opponents usually scratch their heads in puzzlement at what just went wrong. 这时,我会列一个中世纪科学家清单——例如大阿尔伯图斯(Albertus Magnus)、罗伯特·格罗斯泰斯特(Robert Grosseteste)、罗吉尔·培根(Roger Bacon)、约翰·佩克汉姆(John Peckham)、邓斯·司各脱(Duns Scotus)、托马斯·布雷德华(Thomas Bradwardine)、沃特·伯利(Walter Burley)、赫特斯柏立的威廉(William Heytesbury)、理查德·斯韦恩斯赫(Richard Swineshead)、约翰·登布尔顿(John Dumbleton)、沃灵福德的理查德(Richard of Wallingford)、尼古拉斯·奥里斯姆(Nicholas Oresme)、让·布里丹(Jean Buridan),还有库萨的尼古拉斯(Nicholas of Cusa),然后问道,为什么这些人能够在中世纪快乐地追求科学,而没有受到教廷的摧残,我的对手们通常会困惑地挠挠头,不知道哪里出了问题。

The Origin of the Myths 神话的起源

How the myths that led to the creation of "The Most Wrong Thing On the Internet Ever" is well documented in several recent books on the the history of science. But Hannam wisely tackles it in the opening pages of his book, since it would be likely to form the basis for many general readers to be suspicious of the idea of a Medieval foundation for modern science. “互联网有史以来错得最离谱的东西”到底是如何产生的,在近期好几本科学史作品中都有很好的展现。既然很多大众读者对中世纪为现代科学奠基这种理念持普遍怀疑态度,Hannam明智地在这本书开篇就解决这个问题。 A festering melange of Enlightenment bigotry, Protestant papism-bashing, French anti-clericism, and Classicist snobbery have all combined to make the Medieval period a by-word for backwardness, superstition and primitivism, and the opposite of everything the average person associates with science and reason. 启蒙主义的固执盲从、新教对天主教的攻击、法国人的反教权运动,以及古典主义者的势利,所有这一切杂糅在一起并不断发酵,将中世纪描述成一个落后、迷信、原始的时代,从一切角度来说都是普通人所认为的科学和理性的反面。 Hannam sketches how polemicists like Thomas Huxley, John William Draper, and Andrew Dickson White, all with their own anti-Christian axes to grind, managed to shape the still current idea that the Middle Ages was devoid of science and reason. And how it was not until real historians bothered to question the polemicists through the work of early pioneers in the field like  Pierre Duhem,  Lynn Thorndike, and the author of my astrolabe book,  Robert T. Gunther, that the distortions of the axe-grinders began to be corrected by proper, unbiased research. That work has now been completed by the current crop of modern historians of science like David C. Lindberg, Ronald Numbers, and Edward Grant. Hannam描述了像Thomas Huxley、John William Draper以及Andrew Dickson White这样能言善辩的旗手,如何融入自己的反基督观点,扭曲地构建了科学和理性在中世纪寸步难行这类当前通行的观点。书中还记录,直到正牌历史学家开始利用自己的作品不厌其烦地对这些雄辩家们进行质疑,别有用心者的歪曲才开始被不带偏见的恰当研究所纠正,该领域早期开拓者包括Pierre Duhem、Lynn Thorndike,以及我的那本星盘书作者Robert T. Gunther。目前,David C. Lindberg、Ronald Numbers以及Edward Grant这样的现代科学史学家业已完成这项工作。 In the academic sphere, at least, the "Conflict Thesis" of a historical war between science and theology has been long since overturned. It is very odd that so many of my fellow atheists cling so desperately to a long-dead position that was only ever upheld by amateur Nineteenth Century polemicists and not the careful research of recent, objective, peer-reviewed historians. This is strange behavior for people who like to label themselves "rationalists". 至少在学术界,科学与神学之间的“冲突论”历史之争早已被推翻了。所以这就显得很奇怪,为什么那么多无神论者如此热切的执着于一种早已死去的信条,这种信条本来只有十九世纪的业余辩论家们才会承认,而不应被现代客观、经过同行评议的历史学家所信奉。对于那些热衷于为自己贴上“理性主义者”标签的人们来说,这种坚持倒真是一樁咄咄怪事。 Speaking of rationalism, the critical factor that the myths obscure is precisely how rational intellectual inquiry in the Middle Ages was. While writers like Charles Freeman continue to lumber along, claiming that Christianity killed the use of reason, the fact is that thanks to Clement of Alexandria and Augustine's encouragement of the use of pagan philosophy, and Boethius' translations of works of logic by Aristotle and others, rational inquiry was one intellectual jewel that survived the catastrophic collapse of the Western Roman Empire and was preserved through the so-called Dark Ages. Edward Grant's superb God and Reason in the Middle Ages details this with characteristic vigor, but Hannam gives a good summary of this key element in his first four chapters. 谈及理性主义,这些神话遮盖了这样一个至关重要的问题:中世纪智识方面的理性探索究竟处于何种状态?像Charles Freeman这样的作家还在抱着这堆破烂,说什么基督教让理性毫无用武之地,而事实却是,亚历山大的克莱门特(Clement of Alexandria)和奥古斯丁对异教哲学的运用多有鼓励,波伊提乌(Boethius)翻译了亚里士多德和其他人的逻辑学作品,理性探索一度是智识的明珠,于西罗马帝国崩溃之后幸存下来,在所谓的黑暗时代得以流传。对此,Edward Grant的杰作《中世纪的上帝与理性》花了极大的力气详加阐述,而Hannam在书中的前四章便给出了绝佳的概述。 What makes Hannam's version of the story more accessible than Grant's is the way he tells it though the lives of key people of the time - Gerbert of Aurillac, Anselm, Abelard, William of Conches, Adelard of Bath etc. Hannam的故事之所以比格兰特更加通俗易懂,原因在于他利用那个年代关键人物的生平阐释其观点,其中包括奥里亚克的吉尔伯特(Gerbert of Aurillac)、安塞姆(Anselm)、阿伯拉尔(Abelard)、康奇斯的威廉(William of Conches)、巴斯的阿德拉德(Adelard of Bath)等人。 Some reviewers of Hannam's book seem to have found this approach a little distracting, since the sheer volume of names and mini-biographies could make it feel like we are learning a small amount about a vast number of people. But given the breadth of Hannam's subject, this is fairly inevitable and the semi-biographical approach is certainly more accessible than a stodgy abstract analysis of the evolution of Medieval thought. 一些评论家认为Hannam作品的这种处理方法甚至令主题略有分散,的确这些姓名和小传数量之多让人颇有目不暇接之感。然而考虑到Hannam所论主题之宏大,这种做法也是在所难免,而且半传记的处理方式也确实比对中世纪思想演变的呆板而抽象的分析更为引人入胜。 Hannam also gives an excellent precis of the Twelfth Century Renaissance which, contrary to popular perception and to "the Myth", was the real period in which ancient learning flooded back into western Europe. Far from being resisted by the Church, it was churchmen who sought this knowledge out among the Muslims and Jews of Spain and Sicily. And far from being resisted or banned by the Church, it was embraced and formed the basis of the syllabus in that other great Medieval contribution to the world: the universities that were starting to appear across Christendom. Hannam还对十二世纪复兴(Twelfth Century Renaissance)进行了绝佳的概括,与通行的认知和前述神话不同的是,那是一个古代学识如洪水般涌回西欧的岁月。真相远远不是教会扼杀知识,恰恰是神职人员从西班牙和西西里的穆斯林和犹太人中间发掘出这些知识。知识也远远没有被教会禁绝,知识在基督教世界刚刚兴起的大学中构成了基本教学大纲,而大学,恰恰是中世纪对世界的另一伟大贡献。

God and Reason 上帝与理性

The enshrining of reason at the heart of inquiry, combined with the influx of "new" Greek and Arabic learning, launched a veritable explosion of intellectual activity in Europe from the Twelfth Century onwards. It was as though the sudden stimulus of new perspectives and new ways of looking at the world fell on the fertile soil of a Europe that was, for the first time in centuries, relatively peaceful, prosperous, outward-looking, and genuinely curious. 将理性置于探索的核心,与纷至沓来的“新”希腊和阿拉伯知识相融合,推动了欧洲自十二世纪以来真正的智力活动大爆发。仿佛突然之间,观察世界的新视角和新方法被播撒到旧欧洲这片沃土上,那么多世纪以来第一次,出现了相对和平、繁荣、外向以及真正求知的一段时期。 This is not to say that more conservative and reactionary forces did not have misgivings about some of the new areas of inquiry, especially in relation to how philosophy and speculation about the natural world and the cosmos could affect accepted theology. Hannam is careful not to pretend that there was no resistance to the flowering of the new thinking and inquiry but, unlike the perpetuators of "the Myth", he gives that resistance due consideration rather than pretending it was the whole story. 这并不是说,较为保守、反动的势力对于新领域的探索安之若素,尤其在关于自然和宇宙的哲学和思考对普遍接受的神学可能会产生何种影响方面,他们更是疑虑重重。Hannam行文小心谨慎,没有对全面开花的新思潮新探索所遭遇的抵抗视而不见,然而与上述“神话”死忠信徒们不同的是,在深思熟虑之后,他对这种抵抗予以剖析,而非简单认定,遭遇的抵抗就是故事的全部。 In fact, the conservatives and reactionaries' efforts were usually rear-guard actions and were in almost every case totally unsuccessful in curtailing the inevitable flood of ideas that began to flow from the universities. Once it began, it was effectively unstoppable. 其实,保守反动势力的努力常常不过是防御性的行动,总体而言,绝大部分试图遏制源自大学、势不可挡的理念洪流都以失败告终。这种洪流一旦开始,便不可阻挡。 In fact, some of the efforts by the theologians to put some limits on what could and could not be accepted via the "new learning" actually had the effect of stimulating inquiry rather than constricting it. The "Condemnations of 1277" attempted to assert certain things that could not be stated as "philosophically true", particularly things that put limits on divine omnipotence. This had the interesting effect of making it clear that Aristotle had, actually, got some things badly wrong - something Thomas Aquinas emphasized in his famous and highly influential Summa Theologiae: 实际上,神学家努力为“新学问”划定一条界线,规定某些事可以做,某些事不能做,这样的努力恰恰鼓励而非限制了探索。“1277大谴责”(Condemnations of 1277)力图主张某些事情不能被称为“在哲学上是真实的”(philosophically true),尤其是那些限制了“全能的神性”(divine omnipotence)的事情。这次事件产生了一种有趣的效果,让人们清楚无疑地看到,亚里士多德在某些方面其实错得非常离谱。而这些错误正如托马斯·阿奎那(Thomas Aquinas)在其极具影响力的、著名的《神学大全》(Summa Theologiae)中曾着重指出这一点。 "The condemnations and Thomas's Summa Theologiae had created a framework within which natural philosophers could safely pursue their studies. The framework ....laid down the the principle that God had decreed laws of nature but was not bound by them. Finally, it stated that Aristotle was sometimes wrong. The world was not 'eternal according to reason' and 'finite according to faith'. It was not eternal, full stop. And if Aristotle could be wrong about something that he regarded as completely certainly certain, that threw his whole philosophy into question. The way was clear for the natural philosophers of the Middle Ages to move decisively beyond the achievements of the Greeks." (Hannam, pp. 104-105) “大谴责和托马斯的《神学大全》创建出了一个框架,自然哲学家可以安然地在其中进行研究。该框架……主张,上帝颁布了自然律令,但上帝并不受自然律令的限制。最终,框架指明,亚里士多德在某些情况下是错的。世界并不‘因理性而永恒’,也不‘因信仰而有限’。总而言之,世界并不永恒。如果亚里士多德在自己确信无疑的问题上能够犯错,那么他的整个哲学体系就难免遭到质疑。对于中世纪的自然哲学家而言,果断突破希腊人业已取得成就的道路就得以扫清了。”(Hannam,pp.104-105) Which is precisely what they proceeded to do. Far from being a stagnant dark age, as the first half of the Medieval Period (500-1000 AD) certainly was, the period from 1000 to 1500 AD actually saw the most impressive flowering of scientific inquiry and discovery since the time of the ancient Greeks, far eclipsing the Roman and Hellenic Eras in every respect. 超越希腊人正是哲学家们接下来做的事情。中世纪上半叶(公元500年-1000年)或许并不光明,而从公元1000年至1500年远不是一个黑暗停滞的时代,历史见证了自古希腊以来科学探索最为蓬勃发展的景象,方方面面远超罗马和希腊化时代(Hellenic Eras)。 With Occam and Duns Scotus taking the critical approach to Aristotle further than Aquinas' more cautious approach, the way was open for the Medieval scientists of the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Centuries to question, examine, and test the perspectives the translators of the Twelfth Century had given them, with remarkable effects: 奥卡姆和邓斯·司各脱对亚里士多德的批判远比小心翼翼的阿奎那走得更远,这为十四、十五世纪的中世纪科学家开辟了一条坦途,他们得以对十二世纪传播者们的观点进行质疑、检查及测试,成绩斐然: "[I]n the fourteenth century medieval thinkers began to notice that there was something seriously amiss with all aspects of Aristotle's natural philosophy, and not just those parts of it that directly contradicted the Christian faith. The time had come when medieval scholars could begin their own quest to advance knowledge ....striking out in new directions that neither the Greeks nor the Arabs ever explored. Their first breakthrough was to combine the two subjects of mathematics and physics in a way that had not been done before." (Hannam, p. 174) “十四世纪的中世纪思想家开始注意到,亚里士多德自然哲学的方方面面都存在严重缺陷,不仅限于那些与基督教信仰直接冲突的部分。中世纪学者可以自行探索先进知识的时刻到来了……他们向无论是希腊人还是阿拉伯人都未曾探索过的新领域前进。他们取得的第一项突破是,以前所未有的方式将数学和物理这两门学科结合在一起。”(Hannam,P174) The story of that breakthrough, and the remarkable Oxford scholars who achieved it and thus laid the foundations of true science - the "Merton Calculators" - probably deserves a book in itself. But Hannam's account certainly does them justice and forms a fascinating section of his work. 那项突破,那些实现该突破的、名垂青史的牛津学者(他们因此为真正的科学奠定下基础)——“默顿计算者”(Merton Calculators)——的故事,本身就值得大书特书。然而Hannam行文对他们的刻画精准而恰当,构成了作品迷人的一部分。 The names of these pioneers of the scientific method - Thomas Bradwardine, Thomas Bradwardine, William Heytesbury, John Dumbleton and the delightfully named Richard Swineshead - deserve to be better known. 这些科学方法的先驱——托马斯·布雷德华、赫特斯柏立的威廉、约翰·登布尔顿,以及名字极为喜庆的理查德·斯韦恩斯赫(Richard Swineshead)【译注:理查德·猪头,确实够喜庆~】应该被更多的人知道。 Unfortunately, the obscuring shadow of "the Myth" means that they continue to be ignored or dismissed even in quite recent popular histories of science.Bradwardine's summary of the key insight these men uncovered is one of the great quotes of early science and deserves to be recognized as such: 不幸的是,由于“中世纪神话”造成的影响,即使在较为新近的科学史大众读物中,他们也一直被忽略和无视。布雷德华对于这些先驱在智识方面洞见的总结,是早期科学领域的名言之一,配得上“伟大”这个两个字: "[Mathematics] is the revealer of every genuine truth ... whoever then has the effrontery to pursue physics while neglecting mathematics should know from the start that he will never make his entry through the portals of wisdom." (Quoted in Hannam, p. 176) “(数学)是所有真理的揭示者……无论哪个胆大妄为之徒,胆敢忽略数学而去探索物理,从一开始就应该知道,他将永远不会在智慧的圣殿登堂入室。”(Hannam书中的引文,p.176) These men were not only the first to truly apply mathematics to physics but also developed logarithmic functions 300 years before John Napier, and the Mean Speed Theorem 200 years before Galileo. The fact that Napier and Galileo are credited with discovering things that Medieval scholars had already developed is yet another indication of how "the Myth" has warped our perceptions of the history of science. 这些人不仅仅是第一批真正将数学应用于物理领域的学者,还早于约翰·纳皮尔(John Napier)三百年推演出对数方程,早于伽利略二百年发现平均速度定理。纳皮尔和伽利略发现了中世纪学者已经发现的现象,从而获得殊荣,这就是“黑暗中世纪神话”如何蒙蔽我们对科学史认知的又一例证。 Similarly, the physics and astronomy of Jean Buridan and Nicholas Oresme were radical and profound, but generally unknown to the average reader. Buridan was one of the first to compare the movements of the cosmos to those of another Medieval innovation - the clock. The image of a clockwork universe which was to serve scientists well into our own era began in the Middle Ages. 与之类似,让·布里丹和尼古拉斯·奥里斯姆的物理学和天文学博大精深,普通读者对此却一无所知。布里丹是最早将宇宙的运动比拟为时钟的几个人之一,而时钟则也是中世纪的产物。直到现在,科学家们还认为,宇宙像时钟一样运行,这种观点实肇始于中世纪。 And Oresme's speculations about a rotating Earth shows that Medieval scholars were happy to contemplate what were (to them) fairly outlandish ideas to see if they might work - Oresme found that this particular idea actually worked quite well. 奥里斯姆关于地球旋转的猜测则表明,中世纪学者是多么乐于思索各种天马行空的观点,并验证其是否有效——奥里斯姆发现地球旋转这个猜想其实相当有解释力。 These men are hardly the products of a "dark age" and their careers are conspicuously free of any of the Inquisitors and threats of burning so fondly and luridly imagined by the fevered proponents of "the Myth". 很难说这样的人会是“黑暗时代”的产物,他们的工作也显然不像“黑暗中世纪神话”热情拥趸们所持有的天真而骇人听闻的想象那样,受到宗教裁判所的法官(Inquisitors)的压迫,也没人威胁要把他们统统烧死。

Galileo, Inevitably 伽利略,绕不过去的伽利略

As mentioned above, no manifestation of "the Myth" is complete without the Galileo Affair being raised. The proponents of the idea that the Church stifled science and reason in the Middle Ages have to wheel him out, because without him they actually have absolutely zero examples of the Church persecuting anyone for anything to do with inquiries into the natural world. 如前所述,“中世纪神话”总是与伽利略事件如影随形。坚持认定中世纪教廷扼杀科学与理性的论者们一定会抛出伽利略,因为要不是伽利略,他们对于教廷迫害探索自然世界的科学家连一个例子都举不出来。 The common conception that Galileo was persecuted for being right about heliocentrism is a total oversimplification of a complex business, and one that ignores the fact that Galileo's main problem was not simply that his ideas disagreed with scriptural interpretation but also with the science of the time. 通常的观点认为,伽利略是由于日心说而遭到了迫害,这是一个对复杂案例的过分简化,常常被忽略的事实是,伽利略的主要问题并非仅仅是其观念与经文的诠释不符,当时的科学现状也是问题。 Contrary to the way the affair is usually depicted, the real sticking point was the fact that the scientific objections to heliocentrism at the time were still powerful enough to prevent its acceptance. Cardinal Bellarmine made it clear to Galileo in 1616 that if those scientific objections could be overcome then scripture could and would be reinterpreted. 与通常所讲述的故事不同,事情真正的症结在于,当时科学对于日心说的反对依然强大,阻碍了这一学说被广为接受。红衣主教贝拉明(Cardinal Bellarmine)在1616年向伽利略说得很清楚,如果这些科学反对意见能够被克服,那么经文就可以重新诠释。 But while the objections still stood, the Church, understandably, was hardly going to overturn several centuries of exegesis for the sake of a flawed theory. Galileo agreed to only teach heliocentrism as a theoretical calculating device, then promptly turned around and, in typical style, taught it as fact. Thus his prosecution by the Inquistion in 1633. 然而当时反对意见不屈不挠,教廷很难因为一个存在缺陷的理论而推翻几个世纪以来诠释,这倒也在情理之中。伽利略同意仅仅将日心说作为一种理论计算工具加以传授,可是一转身,他就以自己典型的风格背弃约定,将其作为事实四下宣扬。因此才有了1633年他被宗教裁判迫害的事件。 Hannam gives the context for all this in suitable detail in a section of the book that also explains how the Humanism of the "Renaissance" led a new wave of scholars, who sought not only to idolize and emulate the ancients, but to turn their backs on the achievements of recent scholars like Duns Scotus, Bardwardine, Buridan, and Orseme. Hannam在本书的一节中将这件事情的来龙去脉一一道来,还阐释了“文艺复兴”的人文主义是如何引导了新一波学者,他们不仅崇拜古人,模仿古人,而且对邓斯·司各脱、布雷德华、布里丹,以及奥里斯姆等近代学者的成就视而不见。 Thus many of their discoveries and advances were either ignored and forgotten (only to be rediscovered independently later) or scorned but quietly appropriated. The case for Galileo using the work of Medieval scholars without acknowledgement is fairly damning. 因此中世纪学者们的很多发现和进展被忽视和遗忘(后来又被重新独立发现),更有甚者,中世纪学者的成就表面上被不屑一顾,但在暗地里被改头换面,成为“文艺复兴”学者们的功绩。伽利略使用中世纪学者成果但并不明确承认的例子相当令人齿冷。 In their eagerness to dump Medieval "dialectic" and ape the Greeks and Romans - which made the "Renaissance" a curiously conservative and rather retrograde movement in many ways - they discarded genuine developments and advancements by Medieval scholars. That a thinker of the calibre of Duns Scotus could become mainly known as the etymology of the word "dunce" is deeply ironic. 他们热切地将中世纪“辩证法”抛诸脑后,争先恐后地效仿希腊人和罗马人,这种做法在很多方面令“文艺复兴”成为一种奇妙的保守甚至倒退的运动,因为他们摒弃了中世纪学者真正的开拓和进步。邓斯·司各脱这种水准的思想家的名字(Duns)不过以傻瓜(dunce)之词源而闻名,这是多么深刻的讽刺啊。 As good as the final part of the book is and as worthy as a fairly detailed analysis of the realities of the Galileo Affair clearly is, I must say the last four or five chapters of Hannam's book did feel as though they had bitten off a bit more than they could chew. I was able to follow his argument quite easily, but I am very familiar with the material and with the argument he is making. I suspect that those for whom this depiction of the "Renaissance," and the idea of Galileo as nothing more than a persecuted martyr to genius, might find that it gallops at too rapid a pace to really carry them along. Myths, after all, have a very weighty inertia. 尽管这本书的最后部分同样精彩,尽管清晰而具体地分析伽利略事件相当有价值,我不得不说Hannam这本书的最后四五章有点过于贪心。我之所以能够轻松地跟上他的论证,是因为我对历史材料和他所进行的讨论相当熟悉。我猜,对于某些人来说,理解对“文艺复兴”的这种叙述,以及伽利略只不过是个受宗教迫害的天才这样的观点,就像拼命赶上一匹飞驰的骏马那样艰难。毕竟,神话有着巨大的惯性。 At least one reviewer seems to have found the weight of that inertia too hard to resist, though perhaps she had some other baggage weighing her down. Nina Power, writing in New Humanist magazine, certainly seems to have had some trouble ditching the idea of the Church persecuting Medieval scientists: 至少有一位评论者似乎认为这样的惯性非常难以克服,然而,这或许是因为她在某些方面的包袱过重。Nina Power在《新人文主义》(New Humanist)杂志撰文,似乎认为摒弃教廷迫害中世纪科学家的观点还颇为困难: Just because persecution wasn’t as bad as it could have been, and just because some thinkers weren’t always the nicest of people, doesn’t mean that interfering in their work and banning their ideas was justifiable then or is justifiable now." 仅仅因为迫害并没有那么严重,仅仅因为有些思想家并不总是那么和善,并不意味着对他们工作的干扰,对他们理念的禁止,就是合理的,无论是那时还是现在。 Well, no-one said it was justifiable, and simply explaining how it came about and why it was not as extensive, or of the nature, that most people assume is not "justifying" it anyway - it is correcting a pseudo-historical misunderstanding. 拜托,没人说那是合理的,这本书仅仅解释了这些迫害究竟是怎么回事,为什么并没有大多数人以为的那么严重,而不是为迫害正名。——这本书无非是要澄清一个伪历史炮制出来的误会。 That said, Power does have something of a point when she notes "Hannam’s characterization of [Renaissance] thinkers as “incorrigible reactionaries” who “almost managed to destroy 300 years of progress in natural philosophy” is at odds with his more careful depiction of those that came before." This is not, however, because that characterization is wrong, but because the length and scope of the book really do not give him room to do this fairly complex and, to many, radical idea justice. 不过,Power也的确注意到某些问题,她指出:“Hannam将(文艺复兴)思想家描述为‘不可救药的反动派’,‘几乎摧毁了自然哲学在三百年内取得的进步’,这与他描述文艺复兴到来之前所采取的小心翼翼的笔法大异其趣。”不过,这倒不是因为描述不准确,而是限于本书的篇幅和涉及范围,Hanman缺乏足够的空间,对他的这些较为复杂,且让很多人感到激进的观点展开论述。 My only criticisms of the book are really quibbles. The sketch of the "agrarian revolution" of the Dark Ages described in Chapter One, which saw technology like the horse-collar and the mouldboard plough adopted and water and wind power harnessed to greatly increase production in previously unproductive parts of Europe is generally sound. But it does place too much emphasis on two elements in Lynn White's thesis in his seminal Medieval Technology and Social Change - the importance of the stirrup and the significance of the horse collar. 我对于这本书的批评无非就是吹毛求疵而已。第一章描绘了黑暗时代“农业革命”的概貌,马项圈、板犁之类的技术被采纳,水力和风力得到利用,在欧洲贫瘠的地区极大地提升了生产力,整体上比较合理。但是,文章过度强调了林恩·怀特(Lynn White)在他那本影响深远的《中世纪的技术和社会变迁》中提到的两项要素——马镫和马项圈的重要性。 As important and ground-breaking as White's thesis was in 1962, more recent analysis has found some of his central ideas dubious. The idea that the stirrup was as significant for the rise of shock-heavy cavalry as White claimed is now pretty much rejected by military historians. Also, his claims about how this cavalry itself caused the beginnings of the feudal system were dubious to begin with. 怀特的观点在1962年极具开创性意义,然而近来很多学术分析在某种程度上削弱了他的核心观点。怀特宣称马镫对于重装骑兵的出现有着至关重要的影响,这种观点目前被很多军事史学家所反对。还有,他认为重装骑兵本身就是封建制的开端,这种观点也开始被怀疑。 Finally, the idea that Roman traction systems were as inefficient as White's sources make out has also been seriously questioned. Hannam seems to accept White's thesis wholesale, which is not really justified given it has been reassessed for over forty years now. 最后,本书认为罗马时代的牵引系统正如怀特所证明得那样低效,这样的观点也被严重质疑。Hannam似乎全盘接受了怀特的论点,考虑在四十年的时间里,学界已经对怀特的观点进行了重新审视,这种忠诚似乎并不可取。 On a rather more personal note, as a humanist and atheist myself, there is a rather snippy little aside on page 212 where Hannam sneers that "non-believers have further muddied the waters by hijacking the word 'humanist' to mean a softer version of 'atheist'." 就个人感受而言,作为一个人文主义者和无神论者,看到Hannam在第212页嘲弄道,“无信仰者劫持‘人文主义者’这个词,将其作为‘无神论者’的柔性表达,这进一步把水搅浑”,我感觉有点离题。 Sorry, but just as not all humanists are atheists (as Hannam himself well knows) so not all atheists are humanists (as anyone hanging around on some of the more vitriolically anti-theist sites and forums will quickly realize). So there is no "non-believer" plot to "hijack" the word "humanist". Those of us who are humanists are humanists - end of story. And "atheism" does not need any "softening" anyway. 不好意思,就像并非所有的人文主义者都是无神论者(Hannam自己就清楚地知道这一点),也并非所有的无神论者都是人文主义者(只要有人乐意浪费时间在那些反宗教网站和论坛转转便能很快发现这一点)。因此,并不存在“无信仰者”别有用心地“劫持”“人文主义者”这回事。我们这些人文主义者就是人文主义者,仅此而已。而且“无神论”用不着“柔化”。 That aside, this is a marvelous book and a brilliant, readable, and accessible antidote to "the Myth". It should be on the Christmas wish-list of any Medievalist, science history buff, or anyone who has a misguided friend who still thinks the nights in the Middle Ages were lit by burning scientists. 除此之外,这是一部令人叹为观止的作品,是“黑暗中世纪神话”一剂绝妙而易读的解毒剂。任何中世纪研究者、科学史爱好者,或者你有位误入歧途、依然相信在中世纪教廷靠焚烧科学家来照亮夜空的朋友,都应该把这本书放在圣诞礼品单上。 Tim O'Neill 作者简介 Tim O'Neill is an atheist blogger who specializes in reviews of books on ancient and medieval history as well as atheism and historiography. He holds a Master of Arts in Medieval Literature from the University of Tasmania and is a subscribing member of the Australian Atheist Foundation and the Australian Skeptics. He is also the author of the History versus The Da Vinci Code website and is currently working on a book with the working title History for Atheists: How Not to Use History in Debates About Religion. He finds the fact that he irritates many theists and atheists in equal measure a sign that he's probably doing some good. Follow his blog at Armarium Magnum. 蒂姆·奥尼尔是一位无神论博客作者,专注于古代史、中世纪史、以及无神论和史学领域的书评创作。他毕业于塔斯马尼亚大学,获得中世纪文学硕士学位,是澳大利亚无神论者基金会(Australian Atheist Foundation)和澳大利亚怀疑论协会(Australian Skeptics)的会员。他还是History versus The Da Vinci Code 网站的作者,目前正在撰写一本名为History for Atheists: How Not to Use History in Debates About Religion的书。他的观点常常在有神论者和无神论者之间造成相同程度的轩然大波,这或许表明,他的工作起到了一些良好的作用。请关注他在Armarium Magnum的博客。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]婚姻中的“金发姑娘理论”

The Goldilocks Theory of Marriage
婚姻中的“金发姑娘理论”

作者:Jordan Weissmann @ 2015-7-16
译者:ShawnLai
校对:带菜刀的诗人
来源:Slate杂志,http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2015/07/16/getting_married_late_increases_your_chance_of_a_divorce.html

Conventional wisdom, and many years of social science, have long said that the longer people wait to get married, the less likely they are to get divorced. There are obvious reasons why. With age, people mature, finish school, and settle into careers, which gives them the emotional and financial wherewithal to manage lifelong romantic commitments. The more we settle into ourselves, the theory goes, the better we are at settling down with others.

传统观点和多年来的社会科学界一直都认为,人们结婚越晚,越不容易离婚。道理很明显,随着年龄增长,人们的人格得以成熟,学业得以完成,事业得以稳定,这些条件为做出情感上、经济上的终生承诺提供了资本。根据这种理论,我们自己越安定,就越擅于成家立业。

newanalysis by Nicholas Wolfinger, a sociologist at the University of Utah, challenges that idea a bit. Using data from the NationalSurveyofFamilyGrowth, he finds that today, divorce risk declines for people who wait until their late 20s and early 30s to get married. But it rises again for those who delay walking down the aisle until their late 30s.

来自犹他大学(University of Utah)的社会学家Nicholas Wolfinger的一项新研究,对上述观点提出了挑战。根据国家家庭成长调查(National Survey of Family Growth)的数据,他发现,如今,对于等到三十来岁再结婚的人来说,离婚风险是下降的,但如果推迟到年近40岁才步入婚姻殿堂,离婚风险会再次升高。

Again, this seems to be a new phenomenon. Wolfinger finds that during the mid-1990s, the odds of(more...)

标签:
5665

The Goldilocks Theory of Marriage 婚姻中的“金发姑娘理论”

作者:Jordan Weissmann @ 2015-7-16 译者:ShawnLai 校对:带菜刀的诗人 来源:Slate杂志,http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2015/07/16/getting_married_late_increases_your_chance_of_a_divorce.html

Conventional wisdom, and many years of social science, have long said that the longer people wait to get married, the less likely they are to get divorced. There are obvious reasons why. With age, people mature, finish school, and settle into careers, which gives them the emotional and financial wherewithal to manage lifelong romantic commitments. The more we settle into ourselves, the theory goes, the better we are at settling down with others.

传统观点和多年来的社会科学界一直都认为,人们结婚越晚,越不容易离婚。道理很明显,随着年龄增长,人们的人格得以成熟,学业得以完成,事业得以稳定,这些条件为做出情感上、经济上的终生承诺提供了资本。根据这种理论,我们自己越安定,就越擅于成家立业。

newanalysis by Nicholas Wolfinger, a sociologist at the University of Utah, challenges that idea a bit. Using data from the NationalSurveyofFamilyGrowth, he finds that today, divorce risk declines for people who wait until their late 20s and early 30s to get married. But it rises again for those who delay walking down the aisle until their late 30s.

来自犹他大学(University of Utah)的社会学家Nicholas Wolfinger的一项新研究,对上述观点提出了挑战。根据国家家庭成长调查(National Survey of Family Growth)的数据,他发现,如今,对于等到三十来岁再结婚的人来说,离婚风险是下降的,但如果推迟到年近40岁才步入婚姻殿堂,离婚风险会再次升高。

Again, this seems to be a new phenomenon. Wolfinger finds that during the mid-1990s, the odds of getting divorced continued declining the longer individuals held off on their first marriage. (For our purposes, just pay attention to the blue trend line. The gray shaded areas represent what are known as confidence intervals.)

Wolfinger的另一发现发现似乎也是个新现象。1990年代中期,首次结婚年龄越大的人,他们的离婚概率就越低。(出于本文目的,只要关注蓝线就可以了,灰色阴影区域是置信区间)

wolfinger_2.png.CROP.promovar-mediumlargeBut now, the trend is u-shaped. “My data analysis shows that prior to age 32 or so, each additional year of age at marriage reduces the odds of divorce by 11 percent,” he writes. “However, after that the odds of divorce increase by 5 percent per year.” Call it the Goldilocks theory of marriage: Getting married too early is risky, but so is getting married too late. Your late 20s and early 30s are just right.

但是现在,这个趋势是U型的。 “我的数据分析显示,32岁左右之前,年龄每增加一岁,离婚的风险就会降低11%。”他写道,“然而在此之后,离婚风险就会每年增加5%。”我把它称为婚姻中的金发姑娘理论:结婚太早风险很高,但是结婚太晚也一样。三十来岁刚刚好。【编注:金发姑娘理论指地球位于不近不远刚好适合的轨道,“金发姑娘”典出儿童故事《三只小熊》:主人公金发姑娘发现小熊家的一样三份的东西中,总有一份偏于一端,一份偏于另一端,而一份刚刚好。

wolfinger_1.png.CROP.promo-xlarge2How come? Wolfinger isn't sure. But controlling the data for demographic and personal characteristics such as race, education, religion, sexual history, family background, or the size of the cities survey takers lived in didn't change the results, suggesting none of those factors could explain it.

为什么会这样?Wolfinger也不确定。但是,在控制了诸如种族、教育、宗教、性经历、家庭背景、调查对象所在的城市规模等人口和个人特征之后,结果没有改变,说明以上因素不能解释这个现象。

Ultimately, the professor suspects that there's a lot of self-selection at play: The sorts of people who wait a very long time to say "I do" just might not really be the marrying types, whether they realize it or not. Or, even if they are, their dating pool might have been whittled down to people who aren't.

最终,Wolfinger教授怀疑这是自我选择的作用:那些拖了很长时间才结婚的人,无论自己是否意识到,晚婚的他们也许根本就不适合步入婚姻殿堂。或者,即使他们自己是适合结婚的人,他们约会对象的范围也收窄到那些不适合结婚的人了。

But that would explain today's pattern, not the change we've seen since the turn of the century. And the reason behind that shift is also mysterious. "This is the $64,000 question," he told me. "I honestly don’t have a great explanation. What I know for certain is it has happened."

但是这个说法只解释了今天的情况,而没有解释这个世纪以来发生的变化。这些变化背后的原因依然是谜。“这是一个‘64,000美元难题( $64,000 question)’”【译注:这是1955年CBS推出的一档高额奖金电视问答节目】,Wolfinger教授说,“我真的没有好的解释,我唯一能确认的是,这样的事的确发生了。”

Jordan Weissmann is Slate's senior business and economics correspondent. Jordan Weissmann是Slate杂志的资深商业与经济学通讯记者。

(编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]婴儿名字与文化趋势

Behind The Numbers: Baby-Name Data
婴儿名字与文化趋势

作者:Jo Craven McGinty @ 2015-7-17
译者:岑
校对:带菜刀的诗人
来源:《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal),http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/behind-the-numbers-baby-name-data-2106/

One reason social scientists and others use U.S. baby names to study cultural trends is simply because the data are readily available.

社会科学家及其他人利用美国婴儿的名字研究文化趋势的一个原因,仅仅是数据触手可得。

The Social Security Administration has compiled names from Social Security card applications for births that occurred in the U.S. after 1879 and posted the data on its website. The agency notes that many people who were born before 1937 never applied for cards. Also, the agency omits records if the place of birth is unknown or there are fewer than five people with the same name.

社会保障局汇编了1879年以来的(more...)

标签:
5663
Behind The Numbers: Baby-Name Data 婴儿名字与文化趋势 作者:Jo Craven McGinty @ 2015-7-17 译者:岑 校对:带菜刀的诗人 来源:《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal),http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers/behind-the-numbers-baby-name-data-2106/ One reason social scientists and others use U.S. baby names to study cultural trends is simply because the data are readily available. 社会科学家及其他人利用美国婴儿的名字研究文化趋势的一个原因,仅仅是数据触手可得。 The Social Security Administration has compiled names from Social Security card applications for births that occurred in the U.S. after 1879 and posted the data on its website. The agency notes that many people who were born before 1937 never applied for cards. Also, the agency omits records if the place of birth is unknown or there are fewer than five people with the same name. 社会保障局汇编了1879年以来的新生儿社会保障卡申请记录中所出现的姓名,并把这些数据发布在它的网站上。社会保障局指出,有很多出生在1937年前的人从未申请过社会保障卡。同时他们也忽略了没有出生地点和少于5个使用的名字。 With those caveats, it is then up to researchers to decide how to use the data. For example, the Social Security Administration notes that spellings of names that sound the same vary–for example, Caitlin, Caitlyn, Kaitlin, Kaitlyn, Kaitlynn, Katelyn and Katelynn–and it’s up to researchers to decide whether to combine them for the purposes of counting. 考虑这些局限之后,接下来如何来使用这些数据就取决于研究者了。例如社会保障局指出,发音相同的名字的拼法可能不同——比如凯特琳(Caitlin, Caitlyn, Kaitlin, Kaitlyn, Kaitlynn, Katelyn和 Katelynn),是否将它们放在一起统计取决于研究者自己的意愿。 One researcher, Jonah Berger, a professor of marketing at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvaniahas used the components of baby names to show names are more likely to become popular when similar names have been popular recently. For example, following Hurricane Katrina, names that began with “K” increased by 9%. 宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院市场营销学的教授伯杰·约拿(Jonah Berger),通过新生儿名字的构成成分来说明,当某些事物变流行时,与之相似的名字更容易出现在新生儿中。例如在卡特里娜飓风(Hurricane Katrina)后,以“K”开头的名字增加了9%。 A more recent study that analyzed baby names to glean insight into the evolution of culture by Giorgio Parisi, a theoretical physicist at Sapienza University of Rome, and colleagues treats different spellings as distinct names and analyzes the distribution of names to identify states that cluster together. 来自萨皮恩扎(Sapienza) 大学的理论物理学家希奥尔西奥·帕里西(Giorgio Parisi)的一项新近研究,试图通过分析新生儿名字深入了解文化演进,他们视不同的拼写为不同的名字,同时根据名字的分布来识别那些起名更类聚化(cluster)的州。 The researchers’ work shows, among other things, that even when it comes to baby names, Southern states cluster together. 他们的研究显示,除了其他方面之外,甚至在新生儿的名字上南方各州也更类聚。 Dr. Parisi said he and his colleagues chose to study U.S. baby names because Italian names weren’t available. “We’re interested in doing Italy,” he said, “but we have not succeeded to get the data.” 帕里西博士说,他和同事们选择以美国新生儿名字为研究对象,是因为无法获得意大利新生儿的名字。“我们很想研究意大利的情况,”他说,“但我们没法得到这些数据。” Learn more about the findings of Dr. Parisi and his colleagues based on their study of U.S. baby names in The Numbers. 更多关于帕里西博士和他同事们基于美国新生儿名字的研究,请访问专栏The Numbers(http://blogs.wsj.com/numbers ) (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]德州经济安然无恙

No Economic Mess in Texas
德州经济安然无恙

作者:WSJ @ 2015-7-22
译者:赵鲲
校对:晓舸 (@ShawXG)
来源:《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journay),http://www.wsj.com/articles/no-economic-mess-in-texas-1437433836

Oil prices collapse but the Lone Star State keeps creating jobs.
油价崩溃并未阻止孤星州持续创造就业机会

A funny thing has happened to the economic miracle in Texas that liberals predicted would go bust along with oil prices. America’s foremost state job creator of the past decade continues to produce opportunity and employment.

有趣的是,虽然自由派一直在预测“德州奇迹”将随油价崩溃而破产,但这个过去十年美国创造就业最多的州仍在持续创造着就业和经济机遇。

Last week’s “beige book” release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that despite the struggling oil and gas industry, the Texas economy is still enjoying moderate growth. Since prices in the oil patch began sliding a year ago, pundits on the political left have been waiting for evidence to declare the Texas model a failure. They’re still waiting.

上周达拉斯联邦储备银行(more...)

标签: |
5658
No Economic Mess in Texas 德州经济安然无恙 作者:WSJ @ 2015-7-22 译者:赵鲲 校对:晓舸 (@ShawXG) 来源:《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journay),http://www.wsj.com/articles/no-economic-mess-in-texas-1437433836 Oil prices collapse but the Lone Star State keeps creating jobs. 油价崩溃并未阻止孤星州持续创造就业机会

A funny thing has happened to the economic miracle in Texas that liberals predicted would go bust along with oil prices. America’s foremost state job creator of the past decade continues to produce opportunity and employment.

有趣的是,虽然自由派一直在预测“德州奇迹”将随油价崩溃而破产,但这个过去十年美国创造就业最多的州仍在持续创造着就业和经济机遇。

Last week’s “beige book” release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that despite the struggling oil and gas industry, the Texas economy is still enjoying moderate growth. Since prices in the oil patch began sliding a year ago, pundits on the political left have been waiting for evidence to declare the Texas model a failure. They’re still waiting.

上周达拉斯联邦储备银行发布的褐皮书显示,虽然石油和天然气行业举步维艰,德州经济却仍然在以温和的速度增长。自从去年油价开始暴跌以来,那些左翼评论员们就一直在等待着能证实“德州模式”失败的证据出现。但直到现在,他们仍然没有等到。

Last month the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in 2014 the Texas economy grew by a sizzling 5.2%, second fastest in the country after North Dakota’s 6.3% and more than twice the U.S. average. That followed 5.5% growth in 2013 and 6.2% in 2012. And 2014 was the year oil prices fell to $53 a barrel in December from more than $107 in June. The Texas rig count in May was down 58% from a year ago.

上月联邦经济分析局发布的报告显示,德州经济在2014年度表现良好,增长率达到5.2%,在全美仅次于北达科他州6.2%排名第二,超过全美平均水平的两倍。在之前的2013和2012年度,德州的增长率分别为5.5%和6.2%。值得一提的是,油价已从2014年6月的每桶超过107美元跌至了12月的每桶53美元。而今年5月德州运转中的钻机数量相比一年前下降了58%。

Liberal Governors, tired of looking bad next to Texas, may have hoped to catch a break as the full impact of cheap oil hit the Lone Star State in 2015. And Texas is creating jobs more slowly this year—1.1% growth through May versus 3.6% in the same period last year. Lower-paying positions in hospitality have substituted for higher-paying energy jobs.

受够了被德州比得很难看的自由派州长们,也许希望当低油价的影响在2015年全面冲击“孤星州”时,他们能够缓口气。德州今年创造就业的速度的确在放缓——整个5月工作岗位仅仅增长了1.1%,而去年同期这个数字则是3.6%。低工资的酒店服务业岗位填补了高工资的能源行业岗位消失所带来的空缺。

But the overall economic resilience is a far cry from the Texas recessions that followed previous oil busts. Unemployment in the state, 4.3% in May, was still well below the national average of 5.5% that month.

但是相比之前的几次油价暴跌之后德州所经历的经济衰退,这次油价下跌中经济的整体韧性已经强得多了。德州在5月的失业率是4.3%,这个数字仍要比全美 5.5% 的平均水平低了不少。

Some credit goes to the foresight of energy companies that made themselves less vulnerable with better balance sheets. In a report specifically focused on the energy capital of Houston, the Dallas Fed notes recent improvement in job growth and says that “refining, petrochemicals and service industries are managing to offset oil-producer woes.” Statewide, education and health services employment has also been strong.

一些有远见的能源企业提前储备了资金,他们通过改善资产负债表使自己变得更健壮。在一份特别关注能源之都休斯顿的报告中,达拉斯联储提到了最近就业增长的改善,该报告指出,“炼油,石化和服务业的增长基本抵消了原油开采行业下滑所带来的问题。”在全州范围内,教育和医疗产业的就业势头也同样强劲。

Meanwhile in Austin, which has little exposure to the energy industry, business other than government is booming. May job growth surged at an annual rate of 6.6%, including “a significant increase in high-paying scientific and technical services jobs.” Texas is now America’s top technology exporter, surpassing long-time leader California.

同时在与能源行业几乎没有什么联系的奥斯汀,政府服务之外的经济正在蓬勃发展。奥斯汀5月的就业增长率飙升到了年化6.6%的水平,其中还包括“高收入的科技服务领域内就业机会的显著增长。”德州现已成为了全美第一大的技术输出州,超越了长期以来一直领先的加州。

Imagine how the economy of Washington, D.C. would suffer and how high the local unemployment rate would soar if government spending fell by half in less than a year. But Texas is mainly in the business of wealth creation, not redistribution.

设想一下,如果政府开支在一年之内缩减一半,华盛顿特区的经济将会遭受多大的打击,当地的失业率又将会飙升到什么样的水平。但是德州经济主要依赖的是财富创造,而不是财富再分配。

The Texas strategy of avoiding burdensome taxation and regulation has attracted a variety of businesses across many industries that have diversified the state economy. Texas still has no personal or corporate income tax. New Gov. Greg Abbott has been annoying the left even more by taking a hatchet to business franchise and property levies. He recently signed into law tax cuts amounting to $4 billion over two years despite the reduced flow of revenue due to falling oil production. This is the opposite of the tax-raising strategy pursued by Illinois, Connecticut, Maryland and New York when revenues decline.

德州尽可能减少繁重的税收和管制的经济策略吸引了横跨多个行业的多种类型的企业,这让德州经济变得更加多元化。德州至今仍然没有个人和公司所得税。新任州长Greg Abbott进一步削减了特许经营权税和财产税,这一举措让左派感到更加气恼。虽然政府收入因为油价的下跌已经在减少,但他最近还是签署了一项在两年内减税40亿美元的计划。这与伊利诺伊,康涅狄格,马里兰和纽约等州在收入下降时采取的加税措施完全背道而驰。

The Texas Governor was in New York urging more businesses to consider moving south and west. And while service businesses of many types are currently growing in Texas, don’t expect energy and related manufacturing to stay down forever. Mr. Abbott says that “we are on the cusp of once again transforming the energy world” with new Gulf Coast terminals for exporting liquefied natural gas.

这位德州州长曾在纽约呼吁更多的企业考虑搬到地处西南部的德州。各种类型的服务业企业正在德州茁壮成长,同时也不要以为能源以及与之相关的制造业会一直处于低迷状态。Abott先生表示,随着用于出口液化天然气的新终端在墨西哥湾沿岸建成投产,“我们再一次站在了改变能源世界的前沿”。

Economic dependence on commodity prices can be a boom and bust proposition, as Canada’s Alberta province and Australia are experiencing. But the resilience in Texas is proving again that limiting government is an economic growth strategy for all seasons.

依赖大宗商品价格的经济体是可能面临繁荣-衰退循环,这正是加拿大阿尔伯塔省和澳大利亚所正在经历的。但德州经济所表现出来的韧性,则又一次证明了,限制政府规模是一种在各种经济环境下都能促进增长的策略。

(编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]年轻人受了多少苦

How much the young suffer
年轻人受了多少苦

作者:C.W. @ 2015-7-17
译者:史祥莆(@史祥莆)
校对:Marcel Zhang
来源:Economists,http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/housing-britain

BRITONS are obsessed with home-ownership; but it is getting less and less common.

英国人迷恋房屋所有权,但这种情形越来越不普遍。

BRITONS are obsessed with home-ownership; but it is getting less and less common. A new note from Neal Hudson of Savills, an estate agent, points out that “the share of households owning their home peaked in 2003 at 71% […] and has been in decline since.” But the crucial point, as Mr Hudson goes on to explain, is that things look rather different when splitting up the data by age group.

英国人迷恋房屋所有权,但这种情形越来越不普遍。一份来自房地产中介Neal Hudson of Savills的记录表明:“拥有房屋所有权的比例在2003年达到最高点71%,并在此后下降。” Hudson先生继续解释,但关键点在(more...)

标签: |
5652
How much the young suffer 年轻人受了多少苦 作者:C.W. @ 2015-7-17 译者:史祥莆(@史祥莆) 校对:Marcel Zhang 来源:Economists,http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/07/housing-britain BRITONS are obsessed with home-ownership; but it is getting less and less common. 英国人迷恋房屋所有权,但这种情形越来越不普遍。 BRITONS are obsessed with home-ownership; but it is getting less and less common. A new note from Neal Hudson of Savills, an estate agent, points out that "the share of households owning their home peaked in 2003 at 71% [...] and has been in decline since." But the crucial point, as Mr Hudson goes on to explain, is that things look rather different when splitting up the data by age group. 英国人迷恋房屋所有权,但这种情形越来越不普遍。一份来自房地产中介Neal Hudson of Savills的记录表明:“拥有房屋所有权的比例在2003年达到最高点71%,并在此后下降。” Hudson先生继续解释,但关键点在于,当按照年龄层划分人群之后,情况就完全不同了。 20150725_woc138The chart uses data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders and shows Britain's home-ownership by age. Even seasoned watchers of Britain's housing market are surprised by how dramatic it is. 这张使用了来自抵押贷款委员会(Council of Mortgage Lenders)的数据的图表显示了不同年龄段英国人的房屋所有率。即使是资深的英国房地产观察者,也吃惊于它所呈现出的戏剧性。 The pathetic rates of home-ownership among young people in Britain may be down to the country's crazy property prices, particularly in London where lots of young people live. (The economic problems associated with London's housing market are explained in this week's issue). 英国年轻人可悲的房屋拥有状况可能是疯狂的房价导致的,尤其是众多年轻人居住的伦敦。(与伦敦房产市场相关的经济问题在本周的刊物上有所解释)。 And other factors, not related to prices, may be at play. More young Britons are spending a long time at university, driving up the age they get their first job. And younger generations are more likely to move around to find work than the old; renting gives them the flexibility to do this. 此外,其他非价格因素可能也在发挥着作用。更多的英国年轻人在大学度过更长时光,抬高了他们初次工作的年龄。另外年轻一代相比年长者更容易四处迁徙寻找工作,而租房为他们提供了这么做所需要的灵活性。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]硅谷的深柜共和党人

The Secret Republicans of Silicon Valley
硅谷的深柜共和党人

作者:Rebecca Nelson @ 2015-4-8
翻译:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值)
校对:乘风(@你在何地-sxy),小橘子(@sw小橘子)
来源:《国家杂志》(National Journal),http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/gop-silicon-valley-20150408/

In an industry where only liberal ideas are “allowed,” many libertarians and conservatives keep their political views secret.

在一个只“容许”自由派理念的产业,许多自由意志主义者和保守派都对他们自己的政治观点秘而不宣。

Deep in Silicon Valley, where the free market reigns and the exchange of ideas is celebrated, a subset of tech workers are hiding their true selves. Working as programmers and software engineers, they don’t want the stigma that comes wi(more...)

标签: |
5648
The Secret Republicans of Silicon Valley 硅谷的深柜共和党人 作者:Rebecca Nelson @ 2015-4-8 翻译:混乱阈值(@混乱阈值) 校对:乘风(@你在何地-sxy),小橘子(@sw小橘子) 来源:《国家杂志》(National Journal),http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/gop-silicon-valley-20150408/ In an industry where only liberal ideas are "allowed," many libertarians and conservatives keep their political views secret. 在一个只“容许”自由派理念的产业,许多自由意志主义者和保守派都对他们自己的政治观点秘而不宣。 Deep in Silicon Valley, where the free market reigns and the exchange of ideas is celebrated, a subset of tech workers are hiding their true selves. Working as programmers and software engineers, they don't want the stigma that comes with revealing who they really are. 在自由市场占统治地位、观念交流之风盛行的硅谷深处,一小撮科技从业者却把真实的自己隐藏了起来。这些程序员和软件工程师不愿因为展现真我而成为众矢之的。 They're the tech company employees, startup founders, and CEOs who vote for and donate to Republican candidates, bucking the Bay Area's liberal supremacy. Fearing the repercussions of associating with a much-maligned minority, they keep their political views fiercely hidden. 他们是向共和党候选人投票和捐赠的科技公司雇员、创业者和CEO们,默默抵抗着自由派在湾区至高无上的统治地位。人们担心与受到排挤中伤的少数派来往,会产生不良影响,因此他们把自己的政治观点深深地隐藏起来。 "It's a liberal echo chamber," Garrett Johnson, a co-founder of Lincoln Labs, which was started in 2013 to connect the right-of-center outsiders in Silicon Valley, told National Journal. "People have been convinced that Silicon Valley is reflexively liberal or progressive. And so their response is to conform." “这里是个自由派回音室,”Lincoln Labs联合创始人Garrett Johnson告诉《国家杂志(National Journal)》。Lincoln Labs创建于2013年,用来联络硅谷里处于政治右翼的局外人。“人们已经对硅谷的自由派思想和进步主义不假思索。他们的反应是一致顺从。” Silicon Valley has long been a bastion of liberalism. Since George H.W. Bush won Napa County in 1988, Republican presidential nominees have lost every county in the Bay Area. In 2012, President Obama won 84 percent of the vote in San Francisco to Mitt Romney's 13 percent and raised more for his reelection campaign from Bay Area donors than from those in New York or Hollywood. Political donations specifically from tech workers follow that trend: Google employees collectively gave $720,000 to Obama in 2012, versus $25,000 for Romney. Crowdpac, a nonpartisan political analytics firm, found that between 1979 and 2012, tech companies have overwhelmingly favored liberal candidates. 长久以来硅谷就是自由派的堡垒。自从老布什在1988年竞选中拿下加州纳帕郡以来,共和党总统候选人在湾区任何一个郡都没有赢过。2012年奥巴马总统在旧金山以84%的得票率战胜罗姆尼,后者只获得13%的选票。他从湾区筹集的连任竞选资金比从纽约或者好莱坞筹集来的都要多。科技业从业者的政治献金特别体现了这种趋势:2012年Google员工共捐给奥巴马72万美元,而只给了罗姆尼2万5千美元。无党派的政治分析公司Crowdpac发现,1979至2012年间,科技公司压倒性地倾向于自由派候选人。 Rather than ruffle feathers—or worse—Republicans who work there often just keep quiet. Rich Tafel, who coaches tech companies in politics and policy, understands the dynamic. The founder of the gay group Log Cabin Republicans, he's had many Republicans in Silicon Valley confide to him their true political views. 在硅谷工作的共和党人通常只是保持安静。他们不会触怒旁人,更别提做点别的什么了。在政治和政策方面给科技公司提供指导的Rich Tafel深知其中奥妙。Tafel是同性恋团体Log Cabin Republicans的创始人,已有许多硅谷共和党人向他吐露他们的真实政见。 "You just learn how to operate, if you will, in the closet as a Republican," Tafel told National Journal. "You keep your viewpoints to yourself." “这么说吧,作为共和党人,你就得学着做一个‘深柜’,”Tafel告诉《国家杂志》,“把你自己的政治观点埋藏在心里。” One startup CEO who has worked in Silicon Valley for more than a decade says that while it's popular to talk politics in the workplace, the underlying assumption is that everyone has similar views. 一个已在硅谷工作十多年的创业公司CEO说,尽管在工作场合谈论政治很流行,但背景假设是每个人的观点都相似。 The CEO, who generally votes Republican and donates to GOP candidates—he spoke on background to conceal his right-leaning views—said that in 2012, "you wouldn't want to say you're voting for Romney in the election." At the same time, openly expressing one's support for Obama was "incredibly common." 这位通常给共和党投票,给共和党候选人捐款的CEO——为了隐藏他的右倾观点他不愿透露自己的姓名——2012年时说:“你不会愿意告诉别人你投票给了罗姆尼。”与此同时,公开表示对奥马巴的支持则是“不可思议的普遍”。 His opposition to raising the minimum wage is just one area where he diverges with most of his colleagues. "If you say something like, 'We need a higher minimum wage,' you don't get critiqued," he said. But he would never reveal his more conservative outlook on the matter. 他对提高最低工资的反对只是他与多数同事发生分歧的一个例子。“如果你说‘我们需要更高的最低工资’之类的话,你就不会被批判。”他说。但他绝不会透露自己对此较保守的观点。 "They can't fathom that somebody disagrees with them," he said. "And I disagree with them. So I'm not going to open up that box." “他们无法理解有人会与他们意见相左,”他说,“而我就是不同意他们,所以我不会哪壶不开提哪壶。” Closeted Republicans aren't just a phenomenon in the tech industry. In Hollywood, where acclaimed movie stars and directors throw lavish fundraisers for Democrats and unabashedly support liberal causes, Republicans are a rare breed. Friends of Abe, a GOP support group of sorts, caters to A-list conservatives in the entertainment industry. Only a handful of its members have made their affiliation known, and its roster is kept secret out of fears of a blacklisting reminiscent of the McCarthy era. 深柜共和党人现象并非只出现在科技产业中。在好莱坞,知名影星和导演为民主党人举行慷慨的募捐筹款,不加掩饰地支持自由派事业,而共和党人则是凤毛麟角。亚伯之友(Friends of Abe),可以算是共和党的支持团体,为娱乐界最一流的保守派人士提供服务。这个团体只有少数成员公开了自己的会员身份。出于对类似麦卡锡时代黑名单的恐惧,会员名单也秘而不宣。 For some right-leaning techies, the GOP brand itself is a liability. The startup CEO stressed that there are "a number of ideas that conservatives have that I totally disagree with," such as opposition to same-sex marriage, and he abhors the thought of being lumped in with Republicans who deny climate change or evolution. 对一些右倾的科技界人士来说,共和党这个标签本身就是一种负担。那位创业公司的CEO强调“保守派的许多观点我完全不同意”,比如反对同性婚姻。他也厌恶与那些否认气候变化或进化论的共和党人为伍。 "Republicans are regarded as assholes," he said. "And I wouldn't want to be associated with assholes." “共和党人被认为是混蛋,”他说,“而我不愿和混蛋扯上关系。” Another Republican who founded a small San Francisco-based startup told National Journal that he's worried potential partners and investors would be turned off by his libertarian views. Recently, it seems like all of his peers in Silicon Valley have been outspoken about their opposition to the thwarted religious liberty law in Indiana, he said. He thinks business owners should be allowed to decide whom they serve, and if they discriminate against gays, people can choose not to patronize their business. He won't discuss that view, though, or debate his left-leaning colleagues on Facebook or Twitter. 另一位在旧金山创建了一家小型企业的共和党人告诉《国家杂志》,他担心他的自由意志主义观点会让他失去潜在的合作者和投资人。他说,就在不久前,似乎他所有在硅谷的同行都公开表达了看法,抗议印第安纳州未能通过宗教信仰自由法案。他认为企业主应被允许由自己决定为谁服务。如果这些企业主歧视同性恋者,人们可以选择不去惠顾他们的生意。然而他不会去讨论这个观点,也不会在Facebook或Twitter上与他的左派同事辩论。 "If I were to speak out about something like that, maybe one of these companies wants to buy my company one day and the CEO is like, 'Oh, I remember this guy saying all this stuff about this thing that I really disagree with.' And that obviously could have negative effects," he said. "Getting your point across isn't worth it." “如果我毫无保留地谈这样的事,也许有一天当一家公司要收购我的公司时,那家公司的CEO说‘哦,我记得那个家伙就此事说了很多看法,而我完全不同意他的这些看法’,那么显而易见这可能带来负面影响”,他说,“不值得为了说清楚自己的观点而冒这样的险。” The consequences for being outed for conservative views can be dire. In a highly public controversy last year, newly-hired Mozilla CEO Brendan Eich, who is registered as an independent in California, stepped down after critics attacked his 2008 donation to support Proposition 8, the anti-same-sex marriage law in California. Eich, who declined to comment for this story, faced an internal uprising from within the Mozilla community, as well as boycotts from other tech companies, and quit after just two weeks on the job. 因为保守观点而被排挤的后果可能很可怕。去年就有一场喧嚣的争论。Mozilla公司新上任的CEO Brendan Eich是一位在加州注册的无党派人士,他因为在2008年捐款支持加州反同性婚姻法的8号提案而受到评论家的攻击,随后就辞职了。拒绝对此事作出评论的Eich承受了来自公司内部的激烈反对以及其它科技公司的抵制,仅仅在上任两周后便辞职了。 Though Eich's was an extreme case, some Republicans in Silicon Valley fear that if they go public, they'll face subtler, less direct repercussions. The CEO who spoke on background keeps his conservative-leaning views to himself, he said, because he doesn't want to risk people not liking him, which could hurt his job in imperceptible ways. As a leader, he needs to be able to inspire people to join and thrive in his company. If he's "contrarian," he said, he can't build the necessary camaraderie to succeed. 尽管Eich这件事是一个极端案例,但一些硅谷的共和党人害怕一旦将观点公之于众,会面对较隐蔽的不那么直接的反对。据那位不愿透露姓名的CEO说,他隐藏自己保守倾向的观点是因为他不愿冒险。一旦人们不喜欢自己,自己的工作可能以不易察觉的方式受到损害。作为一个领导者,他需要具备鼓舞人们加入自己的公司并蓬勃发展的能力。如果他是一个“同大家背道而驰的人”,他说,他就无法建立成功所必需的同僚之情。 Matthew Del Carlo, the former president of the San Francisco Young Republicans and the COO of the California Young Republican Federation, said that transparent Republicans can have a much harder time finding work in the Bay Area. "I've had people tell me, 'If I found out that this person's a Republican, their resume's off the list.'" 旧金山年轻共和党人组织(San Francisco Young Republicans)的前主席,加州年轻共和党人联盟(California Young Republican Federation)的首席运营官Matthew Del Carlo说,公开身份的共和党人在湾区找工作要难得多。“有人告诉我:‘如果我发现这人是共和党人,他的简历会直接被排除。’” Prominent Republicans do openly work in Silicon Valley, and not all of them feel stigmatized for their political views. Billionaire Paypal founder Peter Thiel is a high-profile GOP supporter who has made considerable donations to presidential contender Ted Cruz's 2012 Senate run and former congressman Ron Paul's 2012 presidential super PAC. And Sarah Pompei, who handled Romney's regional press in 2012 and now serves as Hewlett-Packard's director of corporate communications, told National Journal she's never felt denigrated for her conservative views. 确实也有知名共和党人会在硅谷公开活动,他们中并非所有人都觉得自己因为政治观点而受到指责。Paypal创始人亿万富翁Peter Thiel是位高调的共和党支持者。他捐赠了数量可观的献金支持总统席位竞争者Ted Cruz的2012年参议员竞选,以及前众议员Ron Paul的2012年总统竞选超级政治行动委员会(super PAC)。2012年为罗姆尼处理地区报道事务的Sarah Pompei目前是惠普公司的企业传播主管,她告诉《国家杂志》,她从未感觉因持有保守派观点而受到抨击。 Both Pompei and Thiel, who declined to comment for this story, prove success in the tech industry is possible for Republicans who are open about their political leanings. But they wield more power and cachet than the average start-up employee. Pompei和Thiel拒绝评论此事。他们都证明公开表明自己政治倾向的共和党人在科技产业中获得成功是可能的。当然,他们较之一般的创业公司员工拥有更多的权力和威信。 "There's fearless people out there that don't care, but those tend to be people that are in a better position financially. They're secure in their job," Del Carlo said. Those with more to lose, he said, often find it easier to keep quiet. “有些胆子大的人对此无所谓,但那些人往往拥有比较好的经济地位。他们在工作上有了保障。”Del Carlo说。他说那些顾虑多的人常常觉得还是保持沉默为妙。 Still, Thiel's attention-getting fundraising for GOP candidates and libertarian causes, along with other high-profile Republicans in the tech sector, show that the climate in Silicon Valley is—albeit incrementally—becoming more politically inclusive. Lincoln Labs, the group dedicated to connecting right-of-center techies in the Bay Area, has been a big part of that effort. Earlier this year, its annual conference, Reboot, brought libertarians and conservatives from Silicon Valley to Washington to hear Sens. Ted Cruz and Rand Paul speak on deregulation, net neutrality, and other tech-industry priorities. 尽管如此,Thiel为共和党候选人以及自由意志主义事业进行的引人注目的募捐,以及其他一些科技界的高调共和党人,都显示了硅谷的政治气候正在——尽管是渐进式地——变得更包容。致力于联合湾区右翼科技从业者的团体Lincoln Labs在推动这种政治气候变化的过程中贡献良多。今年早些时间,团体年会Reboot将硅谷的自由主义意志者和保守派聚集到华盛顿,聆听参议员Ted Cruz和Rand Paul就解除管制、网络中立以及其它一些科技产业重要事宜发表的讲话。 Throughout the year, the organization holds meetups and hackathons to build a "sense of community, so that people don't feel like they are isolated," Johnson said. He and Lincoln Labs' other co-founders, Aaron Ginn and Chris Abrams, want to empower a true exchange of ideas within the tech community, without ostracizing any one view. 该组织全年举行聚会和编程马拉松,以此建立一种“社区感,让人不会觉得被孤立。”Johnson说。他和Lincoln Labs的另外两位共同创立者Aaron Ginn和Chris Abrams想在科技行业内促成真正的意见交流,而不排斥任何一种观点。 "Silicon Valley purports to be a place where the best ideas win," Johnson said. "If we are going to encourage diversity, let's not just stop with gender and ethnicity. How about ideological perspective?" “硅谷据说是个最佳观念取胜的地方,”Johnson说,“如果我们要鼓励多样化,那就不能仅限于性别和种族方面。在意识形态上也试试怎么样?” Conservatives and libertarians in Silicon Valley like Johnson are pioneering a new kind of Republican. With a distinctly libertarian flavor, they align with the party on the principles of liberty and limited government, but don't necessarily lean right on—or care much about—social issues. 像Johnson这样的硅谷保守派和自由意志主义者正在开创一种新型的共和党人形象。他们带有鲜明的自由意志主义倾向,在自由原则和小政府原则上与共和党一致,但他们不一定在社会问题上持右倾观点——他们未必关心这些问题。 The entrepreneurs and techies of the Bay Area, said Tafel, are "very aligned to what could be a Republican party." They just need to come out. 湾区的企业家和科技工作者“几乎快要组成一个共和党团体了”,Tafel说。他们只是需要出柜。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

[译文]赏金猎人的正义追寻

The Bounty Hunter’s Pursuit of Justice
赏金猎人的正义追寻

作者:Alex Tabarrok @ 2011-冬
译者:陈小乖(@lion_kittyyyyy),带菜刀的诗人
校对:Tianyi Xu (@pathto)
来源:The Wilson Quarterly,http://wilsonquarterly.com/stories/the-bounty-hunters-pursuit-of-justice/

When felony defendants jump bail, bounty hunters spring into action. It’s a uniquely American system, and it works.

当重罪嫌疑人弃保潜逃时,赏金猎人便会立刻展开行动。这是一套美国独有的制度,并且它行之有效。

Andrew Luster had it all: a multimillion-dollar trust fund, good looks, and a bachelor pad just off the beach in Mussel Shoals, California. Luster, the great-grandson of cosmetics legend Max Factor, spent his days surfing and his nights cruising the clubs. His life would have been sad but unremarkable if he had not had a fetish for sex with unconscious women. When one woman alleged rape, Luster claimed mutual consent, but the videotapes the police discovered when they searched his home told a different story. Eventually, more than 10 women came forward, and he was convicted of 20 counts of rape and sentenced to 124 years in prison. There was only one problem. Luster could not (more...)

标签: |
5643
The Bounty Hunter’s Pursuit of Justice 赏金猎人的正义追寻 作者:Alex Tabarrok @ 2011-冬 译者:陈小乖(@lion_kittyyyyy),带菜刀的诗人 校对:Tianyi Xu (@pathto) 来源:The Wilson Quarterly,http://wilsonquarterly.com/stories/the-bounty-hunters-pursuit-of-justice/ When felony defendants jump bail, bounty hunters spring into action. It's a uniquely American system, and it works. 当重罪嫌疑人弃保潜逃时,赏金猎人便会立刻展开行动。这是一套美国独有的制度,并且它行之有效。 Andrew Luster had it all: a multimillion-dollar trust fund, good looks, and a bachelor pad just off the beach in Mussel Shoals, California. Luster, the great-grandson of cosmetics legend Max Factor, spent his days surfing and his nights cruising the clubs. His life would have been sad but unremarkable if he had not had a fetish for sex with unconscious women. When one woman alleged rape, Luster claimed mutual consent, but the videotapes the police discovered when they searched his home told a different story. Eventually, more than 10 women came forward, and he was convicted of 20 counts of rape and sentenced to 124 years in prison. There was only one problem. Luster could not be found. Andrew Luster曾经应有尽有:数百万美元的信托基金、英俊的外表以及一套位于加州马尔斯肖尔斯(Mussel Shoals)的海边单身公寓。Luster是传奇彩妆品牌蜜丝佛陀(Max Factor)创始人的曾孙。他过着白天在海上冲浪,夜里流连往返于各个夜店的日子。要不是他沉湎于迷奸女性,他的生活不过是可怜又平常的。当一名女性声称被Luster强奸时,他表示是两厢情愿的。可警方从他住所搜出的录影带却表明并非如此。最终,十多名女性站了出来,指证Luster的罪行。法院裁定Luster 20项强奸罪名成立,并判处他124年监禁,但问题是:Luster已不见踪影。 Shortly before he was expected to take the stand, Luster withdrew funds from his brokerage accounts, found a caretaker for his dog, and skipped town on a $1 million bail bond. The FBI put Luster on its most-wanted list, but months passed with no results. In the end, the authorities did not find him. But Luster was brought to justice—by a dog (or at least a man who goes by that name). 在出庭前夕,Luster从他的经纪账户中撤出了资金,为他的狗找了个看护,然后放弃了一百万美元的保释金溜之大吉。FBI将Luster列为最重要的通缉犯,但历经数月依旧毫无进展。官方机构始终没能找到他。但最终Luster还是被一条狗(或至少是以此名义出现的一个人)绳之以法。 Duane Chapman, star of the A&E reality TV show Dog: The Bounty Hunter, tracked Luster for months. He picked up clues to Luster’s whereabouts from old phone bills and from Luster’s mother, who inadvertently revealed that her son spoke fluent Spanish. He also gleaned useful information from a mysterious Mr. X who taunted him by e-mail and who may have been Luster himself. Finally, a tip from someone who had seen Dog on television brought Chapman to a small town in Mexico known for its great surfing. Days later, he and his team spotted Luster at a taco stand, apprehended him, and turned him over to the local police. A&E频道真人秀节目《赏金猎人大狗(DogThe Bounty Hunter)》中的明星Duane Chapman追踪Luster数月。他通过Luster的旧电话账单,以及Luster母亲无意间提及的她儿子能讲一口流利的西班牙语等线索来判断Luster的行踪。此外,他还从神秘人X先生嘲讽他的电子邮件中搜集到有用的信息,这位神秘人可能就是Luster本人。最后,来自赏金猎人大狗的观众的线报将Chapman带到了一个以冲浪闻名的墨西哥小镇。数日后,Chapman和他的团队在一个墨西哥夹饼小摊前发现了Luster,将他一举拿下送往当地警局。 Most people don’t realize how many fugitives from the law there are. About one-quarter of all felony defendants fail to show up on the day of their trial. Some of these absences are due to forgetfulness, hospitalization, or even imprisonment on another charge. But like Luster, many felony defendants skip court with willful intent. The police are charged with recapturing these fugitives, but some of them are chased by an even more tireless pursuer, the bounty hunter. 大多数人并没有意识到有多少逃犯仍逍遥法外,大约四分之一的重罪嫌疑人没有在庭审之日按时出庭。有些是因为忘了出庭时间,或正住院接受治疗,甚至正因另一起案件而接受监禁。但还有许多重罪嫌疑人是像Luster一样,蓄意潜逃。警察负有将这些逃犯抓捕归案的责任,但有些逃犯则是由一群更加不知疲倦的人追捕的——他们就是赏金猎人。 Bounty hunters and bail bondsmen play an important but unsung role in a legal system whose court dockets are too crowded to provide swift justice. When a suspect is arrested, a judge must make a decision: set the suspect free on his own recognizance until the court is ready to proceed, hold the suspect in jail, or release the accused on the condition that he post a bail bond. A bond is a promise backed by incentive. If the suspect shows up on the trial date, he gets his money back; but if he fails to show, the money is forfeited. We don’t want to deprive the innocent of their liberty, but we also don’t want to give the guilty too much of a head start on their escape. Bail bonds don’t solve this problem completely, but they do give judges an additional tool to help them navigate the dilemma. 由于法庭日程过于繁忙而无法保证及时的审理,赏金猎人和保释担保人在法律系统中扮演着重要却默默无闻的角色。当嫌疑人被逮捕后,法官必须先在自行具结监外候审,羁押以及交保候审之间做出决定。保释是一种基于激励的承诺。如果嫌疑人在庭审当日出庭,他便能取回保释金,如果他未能按时出庭,那么这笔钱就会被没收。我们不想剥夺无辜者的自由,但也不希望给罪犯逃跑的机会。保释金制度并不能完全解决这个问题,但它确实为法官在两难之间作出权衡提供了一个额外手段。 Bail might be a rich man’s privilege were it not for the bail bondsman. (Many bondsmen are women, but “bondsperson” doesn't have quite the same ring, so I’ll use the standard terminology.) In return for a non-refundable fee, usually around 10 percent of the bond, a bondsman will put up his own money with the court. A typical bond might run $6,000. If the defendant shows up, the bondsman earns $600. But if the defendant flees, the bondsman potentially can forfeit $6,000. Potentially, because when a fugitive fails to appear, the court gives the bondsman a notice that essentially says, “Bring your charge to justice soon or your money is mine.” A bondsman typically has 90 to 180 days to bring a fugitive back to justice, so when a defendant jumps bail, the bondsman lets the dogs loose. 保释也许是一种富人特权,但幸好还有保释担保人。保释担保人会替被保释者支付全额保释金,通常被保释者会支付保释金的百分之十左右作为回报。一笔典型的保释金可能要6000美元。如果嫌疑人按时出庭,那么担保人就能赚取600美元,但如果嫌疑人潜逃,那么这6000美元就有被没收的危险。这是因为当逃犯没能按时出庭时,法院会给担保人一张通知,大意为“快把你的被保释人带到法庭,不然你的钱就是我的了”。担保人通常有90到180天的时间来找到逃犯,将他送到法庭,所以当被告弃保潜逃时,担保人就会让赏金猎人出动。 Actually, that last image suggesting a massive manhunt is misleading. Bail bond firms are often small, family-run businesses—the wife writes the bonds and the husband, the “bounty hunter,” searches for clients who fail to show up in court. Although a bondsman never knows when a desperate client might turn violent, his job is usually routine, as I found out when Dennis Sew volunteered to show me the ropes. Dennis has been in the business for more than 20 years and in 2009 was named agent of the year by the Professional Bail Agents of the United States. Nevertheless, I was apprehensive as I drove to Baltimore early one morning to try my hand at bounty hunting. 事实上,抓捕行动并非人们想象中那样兴师动众。保释担保公司通常都是些夫妻店,老婆提供担保,老公则扮演赏金猎人的角色,搜寻抓捕未能按时出庭的客户。虽然担保人无从知晓什么时候绝望的客户会使用暴力,但Dennis Sew的志愿演示让我了解到,通常担保人的工作只是例行公事。Dennis从事这行已经20多年了,2009年还被美国职业保释代理协会(Professional Bail Agents of the United States)评选为年度代理人。尽管如此,在一个清晨,当我开车到巴尔的摩(Baltimore)尝试当一回赏金猎人时,我仍心存顾虑。 When Dennis and I meet, he hands me a photo showing our first fugitive of the day. I’ll be honest. I was expecting to see a young African-American male. What can I say? It’s Baltimore and I've seen every episode of The Wire. But I’m surprised. Taken a few years ago in better times, the picture shows an attractive young woman, perhaps at her prom. She has long blond hair and bright eyes. She is smiling. 当Dennis和我见面时,他递给我一张当天的第一个追捕对象的照片。坦白地说,我以为会是一个年轻的黑人男性。怎么说呢?毕竟这里是巴尔的摩【译注:巴尔的摩市的犯罪率显著高于美国平均水平,种族结构以黑人为主,根据2010年的人口普查,黑人占当地人口的63%。】,而且我看了每一集《火线》(The Wire)【译注:《火线》是一部现实主义电视剧,由HBO在美国播出,讲述了马里兰州巴尔的摩市警察与犯罪团伙间交锋的故事。曾有媒体报道称,一些本地的黑人学生表示,这个电视剧揭了黑人社区的伤疤,他们自己就认识许多和剧中角色类似的人。】但我吃了一惊,照片上是一个迷人的年轻女性,拍摄于几年前还年轻的时候,可能就在她的高中毕业舞会上。她有着金色的长发,微笑着,眼睛闪闪发亮。 We drive to the house where a tip has placed her. It’s a middle-class home in a nice suburb. Children’s toys are strewn about the garden. I’m accompanied by Dennis and two of his coworkers—a former police officer and a former sheriff’s deputy. One of them takes the back while Dennis knocks. A woman still in her nightclothes answers. She does not seem surprised to have four men knocking at her door this early in the morning. She volunteers that we can search the house, and eventually we get the whole story from her. 我们驱车前往线索所指的她的栖身之处。那是一座坐落于郊外,地段颇好的中产阶级的房子,孩子们的玩具散落在花园里。我由Dennis和他的两名同事陪同,他们分别曾是警员和副警长。当Dennis敲门时其中一人走向后门。一个还穿着睡衣的女人开了门,对于四个男人一大清早敲开她门这事她似乎一点都不吃惊。她主动提出让我们搜查整个房子,最后,我们从她那儿听到了故事的全部。 “Chrissy,” our fugitive, is the woman’s niece. Chrissy was at the house two days before and may return. The once attractive young woman has had her life ruined by drugs. Or she has ruined her life with drugs—sometimes it’s hard to tell. She is now a heroin addict whose boyfriend regularly beats her. The aunt is momentarily shocked when we show her the photo. No, she doesn't look like that anymore—her hair is brown, her face is covered with scabs and usually bruised, and she weighs maybe 85 pounds. “Be gentle with her,” the aunt says, even though, she predicts, “she will probably fight.” Chrissy,我们的追捕对象,是这个女人的侄女。她两天前曾住在这里,而且可能还会回来。这个曾经如此迷人的年轻女人被毒品毁了一生,或者,她用毒品毁了她自己的一生,有时候这很难区分。她现在吸食海洛因成瘾,男朋友还常常打她。当我们向她阿姨出示那张照片时,她一惊。不,她看上去已经不再是这个样子了:她现在的头发是棕色的,脸上满是痂和淤青而且体重只有大概85磅。虽然她阿姨估计Chrissy很可能会和我们对抗,但她还是对我们说,“对她友善点。” The aunt gives us another location to scout: a parking lot where Chrissy and her mother are supposedly living out of a car. We are about to leave when the aunt thanks us for being quiet, because there’s a child in the house who was scared the last time the police came by. The child is Chrissy’s son. We drive to the location and look for the car. Dennis and his deputies see what looks like the vehicle and knock on one of the dirty windows, peering intently into the interior. The car is empty. Dennis and his deputies will return later. Chrissy的阿姨给了我们另一个搜寻地点:一处停车场,Chrissy和她的母亲应该住在一辆车里。在我们即将离开的时候,她阿姨对我们保持安静表示了感谢。因为上次来的警察惊吓到了屋里的孩子,他是Chrissy的儿子。我们开到那个停车场,搜寻Chrissy和她母亲住的那辆车。Dennis和他的助手们看见了一辆看着可能是搜寻目标的汽车,敲了敲其中一扇脏乎乎的车窗,同时目不转睛地注意着车内的动静,车里空无一人。Dennis和他的助手们稍后会再回来。 What it takes to be a successful bounty hunter is mostly persistence and politeness. On most days your leads don’t pay off, so you need to visit and revisit the fugitive’s home, work, and favorite hangouts. Waiting is a big part of the game. Why politeness? Well, where do the leads come from? From people like Chrissy’s aunt—relatives and friends who might not talk to the police but who will respond to a kind word. 成为一个成功的赏金猎人关键在于坚持不懈和以礼待人。大多数时候你的线索都不会有什么帮助,所以你需要不断地造访追捕对象的家、工作场所以及他平日里最爱去的地方。等待是这场游戏的重要组成部分。那么,为什么要以礼待人呢?想想,你的线索从哪儿来?从像Chrissy的阿姨这样的人那里来,他们是追捕对象的亲戚、朋友。他们对警察可能不理不睬,但他们会回应友善的交谈。 Bounty hunters are polite even to the fugitives who, after all, are also their customers, and sadly, bounty hunters rely a lot on repeat business. One customer of a firm owned by the same family that runs the one Dennis works for told him proudly, “My family and I have been coming to Frank’s Bail Bonds for three generations.” 赏金猎人甚至对追捕对象都很友善。因为追捕对象终究也是他们的客户。而且,可悲的是,赏金猎人依靠大量回头客。一个和Dennis所在公司被同一家族拥有的另一间公司的客户曾自豪地对他说:“我们家族三代人都找Frank的保释担保公司。”【编注:这句原文比较费解,从字面看,这里似乎分别提到了服务方和客户方的两个家族,但依我看,作者本意可能是:两个“family”指的是同一个家族,而且是客户方的。】 Most fugitives don’t fight, and Dennis is eager to avoid confrontation. Cowboys don’t last long in this business. Most bounty hunters have a working relationship with police officers and will sometimes call on them to make the arrest once a fugitive has been located. 大多数追捕对象并不反击,同时Dennis也极力避免冲突。冲动的人在这行干不久。大多数赏金猎人与警员有着工作伙伴关系,有时一旦追捕对象被锁定,他们便会打电话给警察让他们采取逮捕行动。 A bounty hunter also benefits from being prepared. A typical application for a bond, for example, requires information about the defendant’s residence, employer, former employer, spouse, children (along with their names and schools), spouse’s employer, mother, father, automobile (including description, tags, and financing), union membership, previous arrests, and so forth. In addition, bond dealers need access to all kinds of public and private databases. Noted bounty hunter Bob Burton says that a list of friends who work at the telephone, gas, or electric utility, the post office, welfare agencies, and in law enforcement is a major asset. Today, familiarity with the Internet and computer databases is a must. 充分的准备也对赏金猎人大有好处。例如,一个典型的担保申请需要被告人提供居住地址、现雇主、前雇主、配偶、孩子(以及他们的姓名和学校)、配偶的雇主、父母、汽车(包括描述、车牌、车贷)、所属工会、之前的被捕记录等一系列信息。此外,担保人还会查看所有公共和私人的数据库信息。著名赏金猎人Bob Burton说,拥有在电信公司、加油站、电力公司、邮局、福利机构以及执法机构等各行各业工作的朋友是一笔巨大的财富。如今,熟悉互联网和电脑数据库也是一项必备技能。 Good bond dealers master the tricks of their trade. The first three digits of a Social Security number, for example, indicate the state where the number was issued. This information can suggest that an applicant might be lying if he claims to have been born elsewhere, and it may provide a clue about where a skipped defendant has family or friends. 好的担保人能够轻易识别交易中的小陷阱。比如,社保号前三位表示该社保号的发行州,如果申请人声称出生在其他州,那么他可能在说谎。此外,这一信息还能为逃跑的被告人在哪里有亲戚朋友提供线索。 If at all possible, bail bondsmen get a friend or family member to cosign the bond. The reason is simple. A defendant whose bond is cosigned is less likely to flee. As Dennis told me, “In my line of work, I deal with some mean people, people who aren't afraid of me or the police. But even the mean ones are afraid of their mom, so if I can get Mom to list her house as collateral, I know the defendant is much more likely to show up when he is supposed to.” A defendant whose bond is cosigned is also more likely to be caught if he does flee, because the bondsman will remind the cosigner that if the fugitive can’t be found, it’s not just the bondsman who will be left holding the bag. 如果有可能,保释担保人会找一个被担保人的朋友或家庭成员共同担保。原因很简单,被共同担保的被告人逃跑的概率更小。正如Dennis告诉我的,“在我工作的过程中,我常要应付一些无赖,他们既不怕我也不怕警察,但即便是这样的人还是会对自己的母亲心存畏惧,所以,如果我能让他的母亲用房产做抵押,被告人基本上就会按时出庭。” 同时,一个有共同担保人的被告即使逃跑也更可能被抓住,因为保释担保人会提醒共同担保人要是嫌疑犯找不到了,包袱可不是保释担保人一人背。 Bounty hunters have robust rights to arrest fugitives. They can, for example, lawfully break into a suspect’s home without a warrant, pursue and recover fugitives across state lines without necessity of extradition proceedings, and search and seize without the constraint of the Fourth Amendment’s “reasonableness” requirement. Just like everyone else, however, bounty hunters must obey the criminal statutes. A bounty hunter who uses unreasonable force or mistakenly enters the home of someone who is not a bail jumper is subject to criminal prosecution. 赏金猎人具有逮捕逃犯的坚实权利。比如,他们不需要搜查令就能合法地破门进入嫌疑人家中、无需引渡程序就能实行跨州追捕遣返,不受宪法第四修正案“合理性”要求的约束搜查及扣押逃犯。【译注:第四修正案,是美国权力法案的一部分,旨在禁止无理搜查和扣押,并要求搜查和扣押状的发出有相当理由的支持。】但是,赏金猎人仍需像其他人一样服从刑事法规。使用不恰当武力或者误闯非逃保人住宅的赏金猎人将会受到刑事起诉。 The prerogatives of bounty hunters flow from the historical evolution of bail. Bail began in medieval England as a progressive measure to help defendants get out of jail while they waited, sometimes for many months, for a roving judge to show up to conduct a trial. If the local sheriff knew the accused, he might release him on the defendant’s promise to return for the hearing. More often, however, the sheriff would release the accused to the custody of a surety, usually a brother or friend, who guaranteed that the defendant would present himself when the time came. 赏金猎人拥有的特权是保释制度历史演变的结果。取保候审作为起源于中世纪英格兰的一项进步措施,旨在帮助等候巡回法官出席主持审判期间的被告人免除牢狱之灾,这等待时间有时长达数月。如果当地的执法人员认识被告人,他可能会凭被告人的承诺将其释放听候传唤。然而,更多时候,执法人员会将被告人置于担保人的监护之下,担保人通常可以是被告的一个兄弟或者朋友,他保证被告人在审判到来之际会及时出庭。 So, in the common law, custody of the accused was never relinquished but instead was transferred to the surety—the brother became the keeper—which explains the origin of the strong rights bail bondsmen have to pursue and capture escaped defendants. Initially, the surety’s guarantee to the sheriff was simple: If the accused failed to show, the surety would take his place and be judged as if he were the offender. 所以,在普通法中,法院并未解除对被告人的羁押,只是这种责任转移到了担保人手上——兄弟成为了监管人——这也解释了保释担保人所拥有的追捕逃跑被告人这项牢固权利的起源。最初,担保人给执法人员的保证很简单:如果被告人没有在出席庭审,担保人就要接替被告人的位置并接受审判,就像他才是违法的人。 The English system provided lots of incentives for sureties to make certain that the accused showed up for trial, but not a lot of incentive to be a surety. The risk to sureties was lessened when courts began to accept pledges of cash rather than of one’s person, but the system was not perfected until personal surety was slowly replaced by a commercial surety system in the United States. That system put incentives on both sides of the equation. Bondsmen had an incentive both to bail defendants out of jail and to chase them down should they flee. By the end of the 19th century, commercial sureties were the norm in the United States. (The Philippines is the only other country with a similar system.) 英国司法系统给予担保人极大激励,促使其确保被告出席审判,但没有提供足够激励使人愿意为他人担保。当法院开始接受现金抵押保证而不是人身保证的时候,担保人的风险大大减小,但是直到私人担保制逐渐被美国的商业担保制度所取代,这项制度才日渐完善。商业担保制度在这两种情况下对担保人都会产生激励【编注:原文的字面意思似乎是“该制度在(衡量成本收益的)天平两侧都放上了激励”】,担保人既有动机将被告人保释出狱,也有动机在被告潜逃时去抓捕他们。19世纪末的美国,商业担保制度已成为常态。(菲律宾是美国之外仅有的一个拥有类似制度的国家。) Bail was widely admired as a progressive institution when the alternative was jail, but in the 1950s and 60s many judges and law professors began to think that the alternative to bail should be release on a defendant’s own recognizance. Bail looked increasingly like a conservative institution that kept people, especially poor people, in jail. Many opinion makers came to support the creation of pretrial services agencies that would investigate defendants and recommend to judges whether they could be safely released on their own recognizance. In essence, the agencies would replace the judgment of bail bondsmen with the judgment of a professional bureaucracy. 作为一项代替羁押的先进制度,保释制广受美誉,但是在1950年代和60年代,许多法官和法学教授开始认为,保释应由被告人自行具结所取代。保释越发看起来像是把人——特别是穷人——关进监狱的保守制度。许多意见领袖开始站出来支持创建审前服务机构,这些机构会调查被告人并建议法官他们能否自行具结从而得以安全释放。本质上,这种机构将会用专业官僚制度取代保释担保人的判断。 In the early 1960s, the Vera Institute of Justice’s Manhattan Bail Project in New York City began gathering information about local defendants’ community ties and residential and employment stability and summarizing it in a numerical scoring system that it used to identify those who could be recommended for release on their own recognizance. The experiment was successful. The failure-to-appear rate among felony defendants the project recommended for release was no higher than the rate among those released on bail. Largely on the basis of these results, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Federal Bail Reform Act of 1966, which created a presumption in favor of releasing defendants on their own recognizance. 1960年代早期,纽约市的维拉司法研究所(Vera Institute of Justice)开展的曼哈顿保释实验(Manhattan Bail Project)就开始收集当地被告人的社区关系、居住、就业稳定性方面的信息,并且总结了一套用于辨别个人是否可以被认可为通过自行具结即可获释的打分系统。这个实验很成功。实验建议释放的身负重罪者的未出庭率不高于那些因保释释放的群体。很大程度上基于这些结果,美国总统林登·约翰逊(Lyndon B. Johnson)签署了1966年的联邦保释改革法,这项法律为支持释放自行具结被告人创造了前提。 Although the new law applied only to the federal courts, the states have widely emulated the reforms. Every state now has some kind of pretrial services program, and four (Illinois, Kentucky, Oregon, and Wisconsin) have outlawed commercial bail altogether. In its place, Illinois introduced the government bail or “deposit bond” system. The defendant is required to deposit with the court a small percentage of the face value of the bond. 尽管新法仅适用于联邦法院中,但是各州已广泛仿效这项改革。如今,每个州都拥有某些审前服务计划,其中四个州(伊利诺斯、肯塔基、俄勒冈和威斯康辛)已经宣布商业保释制度不合法。在其辖区内,伊利诺斯州引进了一套被称为政府保释或“担保债券”(depositbond)的制度。它要求被告将债券面值的一小部分交存法院。 If the defendant fails to appear, he may lose the deposit and be held liable for the full value of the bond. But while a defendant in a commercial bail system who shows up in court must still pay the bondsman a fee, those who do so in jurisdictions with systems like Illinois’s get all their money back (less a small service fee in some cases). And the only people empowered to chase down a defendant who has fled are the police. 如果被告人没能出席,他将失去交存法院的那部分存款并对债券的全部面值负责。而在商业保释制度下的被告人,即使在出席了庭审的情况下仍然必须给担保人支付一定的费用,那些在像伊利诺伊州法律系统的审判权范围内出席庭审的人则可以拿回所有的钱(某些情况下需要支付一点点服务费用)。另外,这种制度下唯一有权追捕逃跑被告的是警察。 The results of the Manhattan Bail Project seemed to support the position of progressives who argued that commercial bail was unnecessary. But all that the findings really demonstrated was that a few carefully selected felony defendants could be safely released on their own recognizance. In reality, the project allowed relatively few defendants to be let go and so could easily cherry pick those who were most likely to appear at trial. As pretrial release programs expanded in the late 1960s and early 70s, failure-to-appear rates increased. 曼哈顿保释实验的结果看似支持那种认为商业保释多余的进步主义立场。然而其发现所证明的不过是:一些精心挑选出来的重罪被告能够以自行具结安全释放。事实上,此实验只给了相对较少的被告以自由,因而挑选那些极有可能出庭的人就不是什么难事。 随着1960年代末70年代初审前释放计划的展开,未出庭率就上升了。 Today, when a defendant fails to appear, an arrest warrant is issued. But if the defendant was released on his own recognizance or on government bail, very little else happens. In many states and cities, the police are overwhelmed with outstanding arrest warrants. In California, about two million warrants have gone unserved. Many are for minor offenses, but hundreds of thousands are for felonies, including thousands of homicides. 如今,只要被告人没能出席,逮捕令便会签发。但是如果被告人是以自行具结或政府保释而被释放的,逮捕令往往不会起到什么作用。在许多州和城市中,警察面对大把大把未执行的逮捕令而焦头烂额。在加利福尼亚州,约有两百万张逮捕令未被执行。他们当中大多只是轻罪,但是仍有几十万人是重罪犯,其中还包括数以千计的杀人犯。 In Philadelphia, where commercial bail has been regulated out of existence, The Philadelphia Inquirer recently found that “fugitives jump bail . . . with virtual impunity.” At the end of 2009, the City of Brotherly Love had more than 47,000 unserved arrest warrants. About the only time the city’s bail jumpers are recaptured is when they are arrested for some other crime. One would expect that a criminal on the lam would be careful not to get caught speeding, but foresight is rarely a prominent characteristic of bail jumpers. Routine stops ensnare more than a few of them. When the jails are crowded, however, even serial bail jumpers are often released. 在法律规定商业保释非法的费城,《费城问询报(The Philadelphia Inquirer)》最近发现“逃犯逃保…实际上不受惩罚。”2009年年底,这个友爱之城【译注:费城又被称为友爱之城(City of Brotherly Love)/span>】尚有超过47, 000张未执行的逮捕令。只有因犯下其他罪行而被逮捕,这个城市的逃保者才会被重新逮捕。有人可能以为潜逃的罪犯会小心行事以免被抓到超速马上再次被捕,但是拥有如此先见之明的逃保者少之又少。例行拦车检查抓住了他们中的不少人。当监狱人满为患时,即使是屡次逃保的罪犯通常也可以得到释放。 The backlog of unserved warrants has become so bad that Philadelphia and many other cities with similar systems, including Washington, D.C., Indianapolis, and Phoenix, have held “safe surrender” days when fugitives are promised leniency if they turn themselves in at a local church or other neutral location. (Some safe surrender programs even advertise on-site child care.) That’s good for the fugitives, but for victims of crime, both past and future, justice delayed is justice denied. 未执行逮捕令的积压问题越来越严峻,像费城还有其他许多拥有类似制度的城市,如华盛顿特区、印第安纳波利斯和凤凰城,已经设立“安全自首日”,当逃犯去教堂或其他中间地带自首时承诺给他们从轻发落(一些安全自首计划甚至打出代为照顾孩子的广告)。对于逃亡者来说固然很好,但对于犯罪行为的受害者——无论过去的还是将来的——,迟来的正义即非正义。 Unserved warrants tend not to pile up in jurisdictions with commercial bondsmen. In those places, the bail bond agent is on the hook for the bond and thus has a strong incentive to bring those who jump bail to justice. My interest in commercial bail and bounty hunting began when economist Eric Helland and I used data on 36,231 felony defendants released between 1988 and 1996 to investigate the differences between the public and private systems of bail and fugitive recovery. Our study, published in The Journal of Law and Economics in 2004, is the largest and most comprehensive ever written on the bail system. 存在商业担保人的司法辖区内,未执行逮捕令一般不会积压成山。在那些地区,保释担保机构负担保释金,从而他们有着极其强烈的动机将逃保者带上法庭。经济学家Eric Helland和我曾使用1988至1996年间释放的36,231个重罪犯的数据来调查政府和私人保释及追逃系统的差别,我对商业保释和赏金追捕的兴趣就是从那时候开始的。我们的研究成果发表在了2004年的The Journal of Law and Economics杂志上,也是迄今关于保释制度最详细并且最全面的文章。 Our research backs up what I found on the street: Bail bondsmen and bounty hunters get their charges to show up for trial, and they recapture them quickly when they do flee. Nationally, the failure-to-appear rate for defendants released on commercial bail is 28 percent lower than the rate for defendants released on their own recognizance, and 18 percent lower than the rate for those released on government bond. 我们的研究印证了我在现实经验中的发现:保释担保人和赏金猎人使被告人按时出庭,一旦被告人逃保,他们也能及时将他们绳之以法。就全国而言,在商业保释中释放的被告人未出庭率比以自我担保形式保释的未出庭率低28%,比以政府担保形式释放的未出庭率低了18%。 Even more important, when a defendant does skip town, the bounty hunters are the ones who pursue justice with the greatest determination and energy. Defendants sought by bounty hunters are a whopping 50 percent less likely to be on the loose after one year than other bail jumpers. 更重要的是,当被告人真的逃保了,赏金猎人会怀着极大的决心和精力去伸张正义。那些被赏金猎人追捕的被告人在一年之后仍逍遥法外的概率比其他逃保者低了惊人的50%。 In addition to being effective, bail bondsmen and bounty hunters work at no cost to the taxpayers. The public reaps a double benefit, because when a bounty hunter fails to find his man, the bond is forfeit to the government. Because billions of dollars of bail are written every year and not every fugitive is caught, bond forfeits are a small but welcome source of revenue. 除了富有效率之外,保释担保人和赏金猎人是在没有花费纳税人一分钱的条件下工作的。公众获得了双重好处,因为赏金猎人没能找到他的目标的话,政府便会没收保释金。因为每年开出了数十亿的保释金,并且不是每一个逃犯都能被捉拿归案,没收的保释金虽然不多,也是一笔相当可观的收入。 At the federal level, forfeits help fund the Crime Victim Fund, which does what its name suggests, and in states such as Virginia and North Carolina they yield millions of dollars for public schools. Indeed, budget shortfalls around the nation are leading to a reconsideration of commercial bail. Oregon, which banned commercial bail in 1974, is considering a controversial bill to reinstate it, and even Illinois, nearly 50 years after establishing its alternative system, may once again allow bail bondsmen. 从联邦层面来说,罚没金可用以资助犯罪受害人基金(Crime Victim Fund),其作用顾名思义。同时,在弗吉尼亚和北卡罗来纳等州罚没金资助了公立学校几百万美元。事实上,全国性的预算赤字迫使人们重新考虑商业保释。1974年就禁止了商业保释的俄勒冈州,现在正考虑通过一项颇具争议的法案来恢复它,甚至连伊利诺斯州在建立起替代制度近五十年后,也可能会再一次允许保释担保人的存在。 Bail bondsmen monitor defendants, guide them through the court process, and help them show up for trial. When defendants skip town, it’s the bounty hunters who track them down. But despite the benefits of commercial bail, bondsmen and bounty hunters don’t get a lot of thanks. The American Bar Association has said that the commercial bail business is “tawdry,” and Supreme Court justice Harry Blackmun once called it “odorous.” 保释担保人监视着被告人,引导他们通过法律程序,并且帮他们按时出庭。当被告逃跑了,正是赏金猎人去追捕他们。但是除了商业保释能够带来的收益之外,担保人和赏金猎人没得到什么感谢。美国律师协会就曾经评论商业保释行业“道德低下”,最高法院法官Harry Blackmun也曾称之为“浑身散发臭气”。 After Dog Chapman arrested the serial rapist Andrew Luster and delivered him to the Mexican police, Dog was the one who ended up in jail. Bounty hunting is illegal in Mexico, and Chapman was charged with kidnapping despite the fact that (according to him) he had a local police officer with him at the time of the arrest. It surely didn't help Chapman’s case that he was not trying to recover a bond that he had posted, since Luster had put up his own money. Luster was quickly extradited by the FBI, which offered Chapman no gratitude or assistance with the Mexican authorities. As if to rub salt in the wound, the judge in the Luster case refused even to reimburse Chapman for his expenses out of the $1 million Luster had forfeited. 在Dog Chapman逮捕了连环强奸案犯Andrew Luster并将其移交至墨西哥警方之后,他自己却被投入监狱。赏金猎人在墨西哥是不合法的,而墨西哥方面不顾在抓捕现场有一名当地警员陪同的事实(根据Dog Chapman的说法)而指控他绑架罪。在Chapman的案件中,他并非在追回他所支付的担保这一事实显然对他极为不利,因为Luster是用自己的钱做的担保。很快,Luster就被FBI引渡回国,对于Chapman,FBI并未对他表示任何感激,或者在与墨西哥当局交涉中提供协助。在Luster一案中,法官甚至拒绝从Luster被没收的一百万美元中拿出一部分偿付Chapman的开销,真有点伤口上撒盐的味道。 Dog Chapman’s television show has brought him and the bail bond industry plenty of fame and notoriety, but Chapman is a controversial figure among bondsmen. The famed bounty hunter’s checkered history includes prison time, drug abuse, and charges of racism, and many bondsmen think that “Dog” doesn't do much for their image. Bondsmen don’t want to be the dogs of criminal justice; they want to be recognized as professionals working alongside police, lawyers, and judges. They are tired of being called “odorous.” Bounty hunters want some respect. The record shows that they've earned it. 尽管Dog Chapman的电视秀已经带给他本人和保释担保行业无数毁誉,在保释担保人圈子里Chapman仍是一个颇具争议的人物。这位著名的赏金猎人波澜起伏的经历包括蹲监狱、滥用药物和种族歧视指控,许多保释担保人认为Chapman并没有为改善他们的形象做多少努力。担保人不想成为刑事审判的走狗;他们更希望被视为同警察、律师和法官合作的专业人士。他们厌倦了“浑身散发臭气”的名声。赏金猎人希望得到一些尊重。而事实表明,他们也应当得到这份尊重。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

一个想法

我想做这样件事:组一个志愿团队,把我读到的英文好文章译成中文,主题先从经济学开始,逐渐扩至其他社科领域,文章除了我挑,也接受朋友推荐,每天三五篇,发微博微信,若有打赏收入,翻译拿大头,最好还有一名编辑负责配图发帖,你们觉得怎么样?有兴趣参与的朋友请留言或邮件联系。

标签:
5637
我想做这样件事:组一个志愿团队,把我读到的英文好文章译成中文,主题先从经济学开始,逐渐扩至其他社科领域,文章除了我挑,也接受朋友推荐,每天三五篇,发微博微信,若有打赏收入,翻译拿大头,最好还有一名编辑负责配图发帖,你们觉得怎么样?有兴趣参与的朋友请留言或邮件联系。
适应模式、复杂性和进化速度

一种广为流行说法是:在几十年、几百年、甚至几千年的尺度上,谈论(生物学意义上的)进化是没有意义的,这么短时间内不可能发生足够显著因而足以用来说明点什么的遗传改变,进化只能在地质年代的尺度上(比如至少几万年)谈论。

具体说就是:假如我们观察到一种环境条件、文化形态或生活方式上的改变,其持续时间只有几百年,那就不能:1)据此而推测有关群体已在生物学意义上发生了适应性改变;2)并据此而推测这些改变可能带来的后续影响。

但这是错误的,理论上,只要时间跨度超出一个世代,并且选择压力(表现为繁殖成效差异)足够大,有意义的遗传改变便可发生。

那么繁殖率差异可以大到什么程度呢?看一下不同族群的生育率和人口增长率,便可得到一个直观的印象:北美再洗礼派社群的总合生育率(TFR)高达4到8,年增长率高于3%,而波罗的海三国的生育率皆远低于替代水平,人口正在急剧下降。

类似差异也存在于同一族群的不同阶层或不同文化/职业群体中,比如欧洲女博士的生育率比未受过高等教育的女性低很多,美国高收入阶层的生育率也比低收入者低很多。这是人类的情况,其他生物的选择压力可以比这大得多,其世代周期也可以短得多。

高达几倍十几倍的繁殖率差异,在几个世代之内便可显著改变某些遗传特性在种群内的分布,只要这些特性是有意义的,那么从进化角度谈论这些改变的后果,也就是有意义的。

上述错误观念的流行(即便那些对进化理论有着极好理解的学者,也常犯这个错误),可能是因为人们误解了生物种群在面临选择压力时,作出适应性改变的方式,或者说适应器的构造模式,假如他们对适应的理解仅仅限于某些类型,那么适应/进化速度确实会很慢。

下面我们考察一下适应可能会以哪些方式发生,然后对比一下它们对进化速度有何影响。

1)阳性变异vs阴性变异

这对概念(以及后面几对概念)是我杜撰的,反正我明确说明了含义,取个名字只是为了说起来方便。

阳性变异是指那些导致一种新功能产生的遗传变异,比如一个复制错误恰好将DNA的一段非编码序列变成了编码序列,于是产生(more...)

标签: | |
5630
一种广为流行说法是:在几十年、几百年、甚至几千年的尺度上,谈论(生物学意义上的)进化是没有意义的,这么短时间内不可能发生足够显著因而足以用来说明点什么的遗传改变,进化只能在地质年代的尺度上(比如至少几万年)谈论。 具体说就是:假如我们观察到一种环境条件、文化形态或生活方式上的改变,其持续时间只有几百年,那就不能:1)据此而推测有关群体已在生物学意义上发生了适应性改变;2)并据此而推测这些改变可能带来的后续影响。 但这是错误的,理论上,只要时间跨度超出一个世代,并且选择压力(表现为繁殖成效差异)足够大,有意义的遗传改变便可发生。 那么繁殖率差异可以大到什么程度呢?看一下不同族群的生育率和人口增长率,便可得到一个直观的印象:北美再洗礼派社群的总合生育率(TFR)高达4到8,年增长率高于3%,而波罗的海三国的生育率皆远低于替代水平,人口正在急剧下降。 类似差异也存在于同一族群的不同阶层或不同文化/职业群体中,比如欧洲女博士的生育率比未受过高等教育的女性低很多,美国高收入阶层的生育率也比低收入者低很多。这是人类的情况,其他生物的选择压力可以比这大得多,其世代周期也可以短得多。 高达几倍十几倍的繁殖率差异,在几个世代之内便可显著改变某些遗传特性在种群内的分布,只要这些特性是有意义的,那么从进化角度谈论这些改变的后果,也就是有意义的。 上述错误观念的流行(即便那些对进化理论有着极好理解的学者,也常犯这个错误),可能是因为人们误解了生物种群在面临选择压力时,作出适应性改变的方式,或者说适应器的构造模式,假如他们对适应的理解仅仅限于某些类型,那么适应/进化速度确实会很慢。 下面我们考察一下适应可能会以哪些方式发生,然后对比一下它们对进化速度有何影响。 1)阳性变异vs阴性变异 这对概念(以及后面几对概念)是我杜撰的,反正我明确说明了含义,取个名字只是为了说起来方便。 阳性变异是指那些导致一种新功能产生的遗传变异,比如一个复制错误恰好将DNA的一段非编码序列变成了编码序列,于是产生了一个新基因,而阴性变异则是导致一个原有功能的失效。 一个适应性变异既可能是阳性的,也可能是阴性的,比如高纬度族群的肤色变浅是一种适应,这是丧失某些色素合成功能的结果。 很明显,阴性变异发生几率远高于阳性变异(破坏一个既有功能总是比创造一个新功能容易得多),所以,当一种适应通过阴性变异而发生时,其速度会更快。 2)二值特性vs多值特性 有些遗传特性要么有要么无,而另一些则有一个较宽的取值范围。导致多值性的原因有很多,这里只举一种较纯粹的情况:有些基因会在DNA上存在多个副本,每个副本又有多种等位体,假如某种基因有5个副本,每个副本有效和无效两种等位体,同时其所对应的性状取决于该基因所编码蛋白质的浓度,那么该性状的取值范围便是0-10。 性状的值域越宽,其分布看起来就越像是连续的(尽管根本上说它仍是离散的);值域较宽的性状被称为量化性状([[quantitative traits]]),由其副本组合改变所造成的变异,叫副本数变异([[copy-number variations]],CNVs)。 显然,经由副本数变异的适应,比经由单基因阳性变异的适应,要容易而迅速的多,首先,副本数减少只需要一次让某个副本失效的变异即可,其次,副本数增加只需要一次导致编码段重复的复制错误即可,第三,对于有性生物,多副本基因的数量变异可经由有性繁殖过程中的重组和交换而实现,因而更加容易发生。 3)单基因调控vs多基因调控 除了副本数变异,多值性也可以通过多基因调控实现,有些性状(比如肤色)的产生和调控机制十分复杂,许多基因参与其中,其中每个基因的变异都可能影响结果,而且这种影响通常不是致命的,即,其中一个的失效或改变只是让结果有所不同,而不是让结果在二值(或少数几个取值)之间翻转,这样,性状也就表现出多值性。 上述副本数变异其实就是多基因调控的一个特例,只不过前者参与同一调控机制的多个基因是同源且高度相似的,因而被视为同一基因的多个副本。 多基因调控的性状,其适应速度快于单基因调控性状,原理同上。 4)单向调控vs多向拮抗 有些性状虽然是多基因调控的,但参与调控的各基因,其作用都指向同一个方向,比如在肤色调控中,假如所有参与基因都在帮助实现黑色素合成,那么这种调控就是单向的,其多值性仅由其中部分环节失效而产生。 但多基因调控也可以拮抗的方式进行,一组基因把性状往一个方向拉,另一组往相反方向拉,最终结果取决于两者的平衡点。 很可能,我猜,以拮抗方式调控的特性,其值域会更宽,适应也更快更灵活,不过,和前面几条相比,这一点没那么显而易见,数学上的证明可能更复杂(我也没去尝试),但直觉上看起来好像是这样——为什么双手把控方向盘比单手更灵活敏捷呢?其中原理或许类似。 5)单层次调控vs多层次调控 许多复杂调控是通过一层叠一层的修饰/抑制来实现的,激素甲调控葡萄糖水平,激素乙调控激素甲的水平,激素丙调控激素乙的水平…… 产生一种新激素所需要的变异很特殊,很难发生,但与这些激素所对应的基因搭配组合却很容易改变,特别是当这些基因本身是多副本的,并且与有性繁殖所提供的特性储备机制(这个我后面还会说到)结合起来,其组合多样性将随等位体的增加而呈指数式增长,适应灵活性也随之提高,这意味着,当环境条件发生改变时,种群能够更快找出提升适应性的方案。 6)多态均衡和频率依赖选择 有些特性是否适应、适应度如何,取决于它和其他等位特性在种群中的分布频率,此即所谓频率依赖选择([[frequency-dependent selection]]),此类选择将导致该性状的若干等位特性以某种比例达成多态均衡([[polymorphic equilibrium]]),一个著名的例子是侧斑蜥蜴的雄性觅偶策略,橙喉/蓝喉/黄喉三种策略以特定比例达成多态均衡。 在多态均衡下,当环境改变时,适应性变化很可能迅速发生,因为适应所需要的变异原本就已存在,适应过程仅表现为构成均衡的多等位特性的频率变化。 在一个规模庞大、分布广、所占据生态多样性丰富的种群中,同时可以存在很多等位特性,而且多态共存的事实本身创造了很多新生态位(因为种群的特性分布本身对其中特定个体构成了一种“生态”),许多边缘特性以很低频率存在,它们事实上扮演了种群备用特性库的角色,一旦环境条件改变,原有的边缘特性便可能扩张为主流特性,这一过程,尽管没有创造新特性,但也完全有资格被称为“进化”。 7)无性vs有性 有性繁殖从两方面提高了生物的适应灵活性:首先,通过保存两份染色体,使得每个基因都个体基因组里都有至少两个副本,从而提高了系统的容错性,当一个副本失效时,系统仍能正常工作(假如这不是一个量化特性的话,而即便它是量化特性,一个副本失效也可能只是降低适应性而不是致命的),这样,一些在当前条件下适应不良的遗传特性,便可能以较低频率作为隐性基因保存下来,从而扩充种群的备用特性库,如上所述,更大的特性库可带来更高的适应灵活性。 其次,它提供了一种基因重组和交换机制,让遗传算法能够在一个世代内尝试更多特性组合,搜索更广阔的可能性空间,从而更快找到更优解,这也意味着更高的适应灵活性和更快的进化速度。 经过这番检查,可以看出,导致适应性改变的各环节中,只有阳性变异是极低概率因而需要漫长等待才能出现,而在没有阳性变异出现的时间段中,适应仍可能以许多种方式发生,考虑到这些可能性,当环境条件改变时,几个世代之内完全可能出现显著的进化过程。 实际上,上述各种适应模式,也正是生物复杂性的主要来源,当这些机制给生物带来复杂性的同时,也提升了其适应灵活性,让其在环境改变时尽快找到新的优化方案,如此带来的复杂性程度越高,其短期内发生进化的可能性也越大。 所谓适应灵活性,和动物的神经灵活性、认知灵活性、行为灵活性一样,是一种二阶适应性:它提升了生物种群在环境改变时尽快找到新适应方案的能力。 由于这种灵活性总是和前述各种复杂性联系在一起,这就可以解释,为何从较大时间跨度上看,生物复杂性总是在提升,因为只要满足一些简单的背景条件,这样的复杂性提升过程(也就是二阶适应过程)就必定会发生,不过这是另一个话题,这里暂不展开讨论。  
亲选择vs群选择

前几年威尔逊帮和道金斯帮就群选择的问题吵得撕破脸皮,起初我觉得这架吵得有点无聊,因为双方在事实问题上好像没多大分歧,分歧好像集中在如何表述这些事实。

不过后来我意识到,如何表述其实也很重要,因为不恰当的表述会将争论(以及这些争论的听众)引入歧途,我来理一理。

1)关于社会性之起源,有两派观点,一派(方便起见,姑称为道金斯派)基于内含适应性理论,认为是亲选择的结果;另一派(威尔逊派)则认为群选择即可产生同样效果。

2)对群选择理论的主流反驳意见是:那些为个体自身利益而背离群体利益的群内个体,将被自然选择偏爱,因而数量扩张、替代那些更“无私”的个体;同时,由于(more...)

标签: | | |
5625
前几年威尔逊帮和道金斯帮就群选择的问题吵得撕破脸皮,起初我觉得这架吵得有点无聊,因为双方在事实问题上好像没多大分歧,分歧好像集中在如何表述这些事实。 不过后来我意识到,如何表述其实也很重要,因为不恰当的表述会将争论(以及这些争论的听众)引入歧途,我来理一理。 1)关于社会性之起源,有两派观点,一派(方便起见,姑称为道金斯派)基于内含适应性理论,认为是亲选择的结果;另一派(威尔逊派)则认为群选择即可产生同样效果。 2)对群选择理论的主流反驳意见是:那些为个体自身利益而背离群体利益的群内个体,将被自然选择偏爱,因而数量扩张、替代那些更“无私”的个体;同时,由于个体繁殖速度远超出群体分支/复制速度,因而上述替代的速度也将超出优 势群体替代劣势群体的速度,从而使得任何群选择都难以发生。 3)但这些障碍其实可以克服,假如一种群体利益由群内个体间合作所带来,那么,众多博弈论模型已经演示了,即便不存在亲缘关系,一种合作关系也可在群体内得到维持。 4)假如这些群体发展出某种组织/控制能力,使得规范能够得到强制实施,那么维持上述合作关系的可能性便进一步提升了。 5)建立合作关系、进而形成合作群体的前提,是存在共同利益,以及形成和执行合作策略所需要的认知能力;亲缘关系是共同利益的重要来源,但不是唯一来源,因而亲选择对群体合作不是必要条件; 6)当然,在合作群体的最初形成中,亲缘关系无疑可以起关键作用,除了因为它提供了重大共同利益之外,还因为个体在地理上的分布(更一般而言,在关系空间上的分布)不是随机的,因而总是更可能与其近亲发生合作博弈,从而有机会建立合作; 7)问题是(分歧点来了),成功建立并维持了上述合作关系的群体,还能不能被视为群选择理论中所谈论的那种群体?换句话说,那些因此类合作关系/规范而取得对其他群体的优势、从而得以替代其他群体的过程,能否被称为“群选择”? 8)传统上,当我们说“群选择”时,指的是:不同群体因某一特性在各群内的不同分布状态而具有不同的增殖优势,有些灭绝了,有些增殖繁荣了,于是带来优势的特性便扩散了;然而对上述合作群体,造成其增殖优势差异的,不是某一特性的分布状态,而是带有这些特性的个体之间的互动关系,一种组织/控制关系,以及它所带来的规范执行机制,这是一种在新层次上建立的新结构,而不仅仅是一种特征分布,用同一个术语来表述,至少是可疑的; 9)当一种群体合作关系紧密到让群体表现的像单一行动者,那我们就没有理由继续称其为“群体”了,此时它已经是个体了;实际上,目前被称为个体的那些东西,都是通过这样的过程进化而来的; 10)一种合作结构能否被称为“个体”,我的标准是:看合作各方是否在很大程度上共享复制通道;某些真社会性昆虫巢群已经符合这一标准,因而可以称为个体; 11)许多群体的合作紧密程度,介于无结构群体和真社会性巢群之间,作为一种结构,它们已经成为自然选择的作用对象,但因为上面所述理由,这种选择既不能被等同于作用于个体的经典自然选择,也不能被称为群选择,我更倾向于用“组织进化”来称呼它们; 12)因为我不是本质主义者,所以这种本体论上的模糊性和两可性,对我不构成困扰。  
另一篇采访问答

最近接受了几次采访,其中《长江日报》刘功虎先生的书面采访是我接受过的采访中最让我畅快的一次(不久前与喂羊、hercules、tcya和万门大学校长童哲先生的非正式访谈也很畅快,不过口头叙述毕竟不如书面表达来得从容流畅)。

《沐猿而冠》中许多文章都曾以“读史笔记”为题发表于《长江日报》读书版,而撰写这个系列,最初便是受功虎先生所邀,在此特别感谢功虎先生,还有《长江日报·读周刊》编辑扁担先生。

下面是这次采访的问答记录:

Q: 你的阅读量很大,面很广,但有时候你还会看看电影,你的时间一般是怎么安排的?你的典型一天是怎样度过的?

A: 我的生活节奏有点像季节变换,每当进入一种状态,通常会在这一状态中持续几个月或半年一年,在此期间,我会专注于一件事情,可能是阅读、写作、写代码,也可能只是玩。

专注的意思是每天花在上面的时间会超过10个小时,最多可以到16小时。能这么做,是因为我坐在家里,免去了通勤负担,也很少有社交活动。

通常,我在将近中午时起床,早饭后先翻一翻邮箱和博客,刷一下豆瓣和微博,两点到五点是大块阅读时间,然后下楼扔垃圾,顺便在小区散个步,买点东西,接着在晚饭前再阅读两小时。

晚饭后到睡觉前是最大最完整的一块阅读或工作时间,不过晚饭时间弹性很大,如果自己做(我最近在实践的旧石器食谱较难在外面得到满足),可能要多花两小时。

近年来我还养成了饭后看一集美剧或英剧的习惯(如果是电影,就拆成两三次看),顺便喝几口红酒,主要是为了增进和女友亲密相处的机会。

Q: 从《自私的皮球》到《沐猿而冠》,好像都是你平时写的一些文章的合集。手头有没有一些你感兴趣的“大题目”,吸引你写专著?

A: 我的理解和思考是零星获得逐渐积累的,体现在写作上也就是零敲碎打的;零敲碎打的好处是激励链条短,反馈及时,因而容易让我将工作继续下去;另一个好处是可以把文字拆成一篇篇文章卖,你知道,文章比书卖得贵,而且还能卖两遍。

当然,永远停留在零敲碎打状态也是不可取的,所以我时而会写几篇长文,阶段性的总结我在某个主题上的看法,或就某一领域给出一个稍稍体系化的表述;和上一本文集《自私的皮球》相比,我在《沐猿而冠》里大幅增加了各章导言的篇幅,便是此类努力的一种,未来,当这些导言变得越来越长时,我的文集或许也会变得越来越像一部专著。

确实有一些主题,你必须用很大篇幅才能连贯而完整的把想法说清楚,特别是当这个领域尚不存在一个你大致认可的理论框架时(否则你只须简单援引它即可);目前我觉得有此必要的一个领域是伦理学,因为我所持有的那种契约主义框架和现有其他框架都十分不同(more...)

标签: |
5595
最近接受了几次采访,其中《长江日报》刘功虎先生的书面采访是我接受过的采访中最让我畅快的一次(不久前与喂羊、hercules、tcya和万门大学校长童哲先生的非正式访谈也很畅快,不过口头叙述毕竟不如书面表达来得从容流畅)。 《沐猿而冠》中许多文章都曾以“读史笔记”为题发表于《长江日报》读书版,而撰写这个系列,最初便是受功虎先生所邀,在此特别感谢功虎先生,还有《长江日报·读周刊》编辑扁担先生。 下面是这次采访的问答记录: Q: 你的阅读量很大,面很广,但有时候你还会看看电影,你的时间一般是怎么安排的?你的典型一天是怎样度过的? A: 我的生活节奏有点像季节变换,每当进入一种状态,通常会在这一状态中持续几个月或半年一年,在此期间,我会专注于一件事情,可能是阅读、写作、写代码,也可能只是玩。 专注的意思是每天花在上面的时间会超过10个小时,最多可以到16小时。能这么做,是因为我坐在家里,免去了通勤负担,也很少有社交活动。 通常,我在将近中午时起床,早饭后先翻一翻邮箱和博客,刷一下豆瓣和微博,两点到五点是大块阅读时间,然后下楼扔垃圾,顺便在小区散个步,买点东西,接着在晚饭前再阅读两小时。 晚饭后到睡觉前是最大最完整的一块阅读或工作时间,不过晚饭时间弹性很大,如果自己做(我最近在实践的旧石器食谱较难在外面得到满足),可能要多花两小时。 近年来我还养成了饭后看一集美剧或英剧的习惯(如果是电影,就拆成两三次看),顺便喝几口红酒,主要是为了增进和女友亲密相处的机会。 Q: 从《自私的皮球》到《沐猿而冠》,好像都是你平时写的一些文章的合集。手头有没有一些你感兴趣的“大题目”,吸引你写专著? A: 我的理解和思考是零星获得逐渐积累的,体现在写作上也就是零敲碎打的;零敲碎打的好处是激励链条短,反馈及时,因而容易让我将工作继续下去;另一个好处是可以把文字拆成一篇篇文章卖,你知道,文章比书卖得贵,而且还能卖两遍。 当然,永远停留在零敲碎打状态也是不可取的,所以我时而会写几篇长文,阶段性的总结我在某个主题上的看法,或就某一领域给出一个稍稍体系化的表述;和上一本文集《自私的皮球》相比,我在《沐猿而冠》里大幅增加了各章导言的篇幅,便是此类努力的一种,未来,当这些导言变得越来越长时,我的文集或许也会变得越来越像一部专著。 确实有一些主题,你必须用很大篇幅才能连贯而完整的把想法说清楚,特别是当这个领域尚不存在一个你大致认可的理论框架时(否则你只须简单援引它即可);目前我觉得有此必要的一个领域是伦理学,因为我所持有的那种契约主义框架和现有其他框架都十分不同,希望未来五六年内我有能力把它表述出来。 Q:上面这个问题换个问法:你对建构原创的理论体系有没有兴趣或野心?你很感兴趣的进化心理学方面,有没有你觉得比较大的开掘空间? A: 我对体系化有一种强烈的畏惧,所以总是尽可能逃避这样的任务,实在逃不过去的,也会尽量限于回顾性的,而不是推导式的、建构式的那种。 相信我,时有所得是一种美妙的感觉。 进化心理学是个很好的理论纲领(我在拉卡托斯的意义上使用这个词),不过它目前已较为成熟,未来更有意思、更激动人心的发展,将来自把进化思想运用于其他人类与社会领域的尝试,比如人类学、社会学、语言学、历史、宗教、艺术、国家起源,等等。 就我个人而言,我把自己定位为哲学家,而我为哲学家设定的目标是:描绘一幅世界图景;这样,我对特定学科的兴趣便取决于对如下问题的回答:它可能在我的那幅世界图景中扮演何种角色? 正因此,我对那些特别成熟的学科,兴趣反倒没那么浓厚,读上一两本、有个大致了解,也就满足了,因为它们在世界图景中的位置很容易明确,也不会有太大争议;最吸引我的,是那些有望带来颠覆性影响的开拓性领域,它们至少有可能在我的观念世界中造成一场或大或小的地震。 Q: 现在你遇到读者,他们会问你形形色色的问题,在他们和我心目中,你简直无所不知。你觉得自己有知识上的盲区吗?做一个“全知”的人你觉得有困难吗?有压力吗? A: “无所不知”的印象,或许和我的自我定位有关,为了描绘世界图景,你必须把视野放得很宽,涉猎大量领域;但实际上,在多数领域,特别是那些被我视为“安全地带”的领域,我只是匆匆扫过,甚至仅仅满足于学校教育和大众传播环境留给我的东西,只有在那些“地震带”,才会流连徘徊,沉浸下去,探个究竟。 问题是,从地震带里冒出来的知识往往被大家认为是新鲜而“冷僻”的,于是有人就会惊叹:你懂得太多了,连这么冷僻的东西都知道;这种惊叹确实会给我一点压力,不过也算不上很大的困扰,可见我的脸皮还是蛮厚的。 在我视野之内,无疑还有大量的盲区,比如最近关注的语言问题,就还远没有理出个头绪,去年曾经涉猎过的国家起源问题,更是一片朦胧,再早时琢磨过的宗教问题,也因为一时想不清楚而暂且搁置了。 类似的盲区还很多,但这些都是拉姆斯菲尔德所谓的known unknown,而最大的盲区则是迄今还处于你视野之外的东西,即unknown unknown,那是一个永无止境的开放地带。 Q: 你关心的东西都很“烧脑”,但这不妨碍你的粉丝越来越多,这说明什么问题?无论粉丝多少,你会不会有一种智力上的成就感或者优越感? A: 我想这大概说明,一个人关注你、转发你的帖子可以有很多种理由,“知道你在说什么”、“对你谈论的主题有兴趣”未必是其重要理由,观点好像符合我的立场、其中一句说出了我的心里话、不明觉厉、时下大伙儿都在谈论这话题、连我关注的几个大V都转发了肯定很厉害……,这些或许是更常见的理由。 一些想法能够引起共鸣,这确实会给我带来智识上的快感和成就感,但这跟粉丝数量关系不大,老话说,得二三知己足矣,我现在至少有小几十位朋友可称得上知己,已经很满足了,而要得到这些知己,依我看小几千粉丝也就够了,再多恐怕带不来更多知己。 互联网创造了一个极为通畅的传播环境,所以你只要把想法公开发表,并让文本持久存在,那么,可能成为知己的人早晚会找到你。 不过话说回来,粉丝数跟钱关系挺大,而钱我是想要的,所以即便带不来更多知己,粉丝数持续增长也会让我高兴。 Q: 黄章晋他们很关心你这本书,做了大力推介,现在这书的销量怎么样?据你观察,主要是哪一类读者感兴趣? A: 这次推介效果很好,预售阶段已卖掉将近七千本,我很满意了,所以我特别感谢黄章晋老师。这次买书的读者,我想主要就是大象公会的读者吧。 Q: 你现在还在“为了谋生不得不写代码”(黄章晋语)吗?你享受你现在的生活状态吗?你今后会不会以思考和写作维生? 我目前确实还在写代码,也确实部分依靠写代码获得的收入而生活,不过给我带来收入的,是我以前写的代码,还有我女友的写代码工作(她去年在我煽动下变成了码农),所以,黄老师这句话虽不算错,但不太精确。 我最近正在写的代码,是一个语义化的社交产品,是基于我对语言、知识和社交的理解而构思的,我相信它未来会展现出商业价值,但目前并未给我带来收入,而且我希望不远的将来有更专业的团队来接手代码工作。 我对当前生活状态很满意,首先是因为我有一位与之相爱的女友,其次是有条件安心而从容的做自己喜欢的事,同时生活也有保障。 我曾经认为在国内单靠写作难以维持一种让人满意的生活状态,过去七年中的一些时间段(我从2008年开始职业写作)也确实表明很可能是这样,不过近两年来,在得到一些媒体同仁(包括你们《长江日报》的编辑),特别是黄章晋老师的大力扶持之后,我逐渐相信未来单以写作为生也是可能的。 Q: 在你看来,婚姻是一门生意吗?婚姻这一文化现象的背后,有着怎样的经济学、人类行为学的解释? A: 婚姻确实是一门生意,否则就不会有媒婆来充当交易中介,不会有婚前的各种摸底、试探和谈判,还有一整套习俗和法律来确保双方履约。 但婚姻是一种通过契约来实施的长期一揽子交易,而不是一锤子买卖,正是这一差别,促使人们竭力否认婚姻的交易性质,正如我们在人情往来和师徒关系中,也会尽力掩盖这些关系的交易性质,以便将其与一锤子买卖划清界线。 指出婚姻的交易性质,是为了更好的分析和解释与之有关的心理和习俗,并不是要否认婚姻与家庭的情感成分,更不是要贬低它,相反,从交易出发的分析可以帮助我们更好的理解这些情感。 Q: 婚姻的目的仅仅是孩子?人来到这个世上,除了做基因的接力棒,还有没有其他的存在意义?按照进化论的观点,个体生命的存在是一种宿命,必然是一种决定论的形式? A: 婚姻的核心功能是合作抚养孩子,这么说的意思是:假如夫妻合作抚养孩子的需要不复存在,那么从文化演化的时间尺度上看,婚姻便会趋于瓦解。但这并非是在否认婚姻还可能承担着其他功能心理或文化上的功能,正如师徒关系的核心功能是教育和训练,但这一关系一旦建立,也可同时承担其他功能。 进化赋予了人类“感受意义”的能力,但并未给我们规定什么是意义,至于后一个问题,我唯一想说的是:生活是有意义的,但并不比你所感受到的更多,也不更少。 宿命论、决定论和必然性,是三件十分不同的东西。决定论是指:任一时刻的世界状态由其前一时刻状态完全决定;而宿命论的意思通常是:无论我怎么深思熟虑、怎么努力,都无法逃脱既定的命运。 宿命论和决定论是直接抵触的:首先,决定论并不暗示我们有能力预见未来,而假如我们无法预见未来,就不可能有意义的谈论“既定命运”,其次,决定论不认为我们的斟酌和努力是徒劳的,或者我们的选择不会影响未来,恰好相反,我们在当前时刻做出的斟酌和努力,作为世界状态的一部分,将(和世界状态的其他部分一起)直接决定下一时刻的世界状态,决定论只是说:我们在当前时刻会如何斟酌、如何努力、如何选择,乃由前一时刻的世界状态所完全决定。 之所以存在上述误解,我想是因为人们往往把自己的心理活动和行动排除于世界状态之外,而这是一种二元论的看法。 至于必然性,说的是一种因果关系,即,何种条件必定会引出何种后果。和常见的误解不同,它其实和决定论没什么关系,因为决定论谈论的是相继两个时刻的世界完整状态之间的关系,而必然性是有关因果关系的。 然而我们在谈论因果关系时,从来不会将世界完整状态作为因或果,实际上我们根本没有能力描绘世界完整状态,被我们当作因或果而加以谈论的,都是有关世界某个局部或某一方面的命题。 Q: 保留备胎是不是女人的天性?女人和男人都一样“花心”吗? A: 备胎策略是人类女性的性策略库中的一件,这个策略库很庞大,所谓天性是指该策略库整体,而每位女性个体的策略组合只是其中一个子集,是否包含备胎策略,不能断言,但我相信几率不会很低。 需要强调的是,即便一位女性的策略组合中包括了备胎策略,也未必会动用它,因为不同策略在不同条件下具有不同优势,所以只要没有面临适当条件,她就可能不会动用它,假如她从未面临这种条件,就可能从未冒出过想要动用它的念头,这样的话,我们便没有丝毫理由说她是“花心”的。 所以我们不能泛泛的说男人女人是“花心”的,恰当的说法是:人类男女的性策略组合,都有着机会主义、分散投资和配偶多样化的倾向,但男女的策略有着重要区别,男性在数量策略上几乎是没有上限的,而女性的备胎策略是极为有限和保守的。 Q: 你曾经说过,人类的性选择,是男女双向进行的,具体该怎么理解?这种模式与动物界区别大吗? A: 其他动物的性选择(如果有的话)通常是雌性对雄性的选择,因而只有雄性发展出鲜明的第二性征(通俗地说就是雄性更漂亮),相反的情况非常罕见,而人类的性选择是双向的,而且女性的第二性征比男性更鲜明,其容貌也得到更多关注,这是人类诸多独特性之一,而且在我看来是非常重要的一项。 Q: 人类是不是朝着越来越聪明的方向进化? 人类进化有一个“超级完美”的终极样态在等着我们吗? A: 如果“进化”是指生物学意义上的进化,那么我的回答是否定的,因为在当代城市社会的生存环境中,我看不出智力能给个体带来什么遗传优势,实际情况很可能相反,在当代社会,智力和繁殖成效或许是负相关的,而且眼下还看不出这一局面会如何扭转。 但假如我们扩展一下进化这个概念,将文化方面也包括进来,那么回答可以是肯定的,因为一个成年人的智慧,除了其遗传禀赋,还可以得到大量文化元素、教育经历和技术手段的扩充(我用“衣冠”一词概称所有这些元素),所以只要有助于扩展我们理性能力的文化元素仍在发展,装备了这些元素的人类就有机会变得越来越聪明。 把进化理解为朝向某个“超级完美”的终极形态演变的过程,这是一种历史决定论的观点,依我看是完全错误的。 Q: 人类除了没有毛之外,和猿类最重要的区别有哪些? A: 从身体上看,重要的区别还有:人类有下巴、正在丢失第三臼齿(这两项都是骨骼纤细化的表现),有眉毛和眼白作为表情工具,有长度惊人的头发,有最大的头脑和最短的消化道;女性有永久性乳房,消除了性肿胀,隐藏了排卵期,光洁皮肤上分布着大量性敏感区,男性则有灵长类最硕大的阴茎…… 但最重要的区别在心理和行为上:人类有语言、有自我意识、有高度发达的社会性,有最漫长的童年期,有固定配偶关系,最善于学习、交流与合作,所有这些特性,让我们组织起了庞大而复杂的社会,发展出了纷繁多样的文化。 Q: 一般我们说“沐猴而冠”,你这个书名为什么叫“沐猿而冠”? A: 最初是受了莫里斯“裸猿”一词的启发,莫里斯以动物学家的眼光审视人类,而我则更关注人性之文化方面,从这个角度,我为人类奉上了“衣冠之猿”这个雅号,所谓衣冠,是指人类成年个体所装备的整套文化元素。 不难预料,这个称号很容易让人联想到“衣冠禽兽”和“沐猴而冠”这两个高度贬义的词汇,正确理解的话,我的概念和它们确实不同,这两个贬义词里的衣冠是字面上的服饰,意思是,仅仅穿戴上服饰却没有真正习得文化的人,徒具其表,不是真正的文明人;而我的衣冠是指全套文化装备,所以我说的衣冠之猿,是真正的文明人。 我不顾上述差别仍然移用这两个词汇,是基于一种反本质主义的考虑,在本质主义者看来,无论我们在进化历程中而获得了多少新特性,习得了多少文化元素,只要我们的起点不是人,我们的祖先不是人,那么我们就不可能是真正的人,因为我们不拥有人之“本质”,因为在我们新获得的生理特性和文化元素中,没有一项可以被视为人之本质。 此类本质主义观点,是我们认识和理解人类及其所创造文化的一大障碍,“衣冠之猿”和“沐猿而冠”这两个词,是我对本质主义的挑逗式嘲讽。 Q: “人性”到底是怎么回事?人性离动物性有多远? A: 所谓人性,就是自从我们祖先从黑猩猩群体中分化出来之后,该种系在进化历程中所获得的新特性,以及他们创造并习得的文化元素,它距离“猿性”大约五百多万年。 Q: 有一种说法认为,尽管我们现在的物质生活形态与两千年前大不一样,但是人们的内心世界、心理状态、甚至智力进化水平,跟两千年前没有多大不同,你认同这个说法吗? A: 不认同,这个说法最多适用于新生婴儿,对于成年人是远远不成立的,一个在现代社会受过教育或有机会接触现代传媒的成年人,其心智状态与前工业或前农业时代的文盲的心智状态,是十分不同的。 生活在狩猎采集社会的成年人,很可能从未数过比三更大的数字,从未照过镜子,从未见过陌生人,从未到过或听说过20公里以外的世界,对曾祖辈以上祖先的事情毫无所知。 当然,和狩猎采集者相比,农业社会的文盲已十分不同,农民多半很会数数,也善于计算,善于为生活做长远计划,甚至会出门做生意,但和现代人相比,仍有许多重大区别,其中原理,和他们与狩猎采集者的区别类似。 Q: 你这书的副题是“文化如何塑造人性”,请你结合几个具体例子,谈谈你对这个问题的理解。 A: 农业是个很好的例子,农业是一种文化现象,人类的生物特性并不要求我们从事农业,不像蜘蛛,蜘蛛的生物特性已经规定了它们采用吐丝结网抓虫子这种生活方式。 所以,在农业刚刚兴起时,农耕群体和狩猎采集群体在人性上没有显著差别,但是,这种生活方式的分化持续了几千年之后,两类群体之间便有了显著差别,农民变得更善于计算,有更强的时间观念,更善于做长远计划,对付出努力取得回报的过程也更有耐心,看待财产和权利边界的观念也得到了强化,类似差异还有很多。 重要的是,这些变化和差异,不仅仅体现在后天习得的文化元素上,也部分体现在生物特性上,即,在经历几千年分化之后,农耕者和狩猎采集者在生物学方面也有了可观察到的差异,这些差异,虽然比较细微,但已经足以让我们宣称:文化在改变着我们的人性,不同的文化环境已经塑造出了有所不同的人性。 Q: 知道很多科学道理的人,更能过好自己的日常生活吗? A: 科学是我们探索、认识世界的方法之一,而且是迄今所找到的最好方法,运用这套方法所建立的知识体系,已成为人类文化的重要组成部分;因为我们的认知能力高度依赖于所习得的文化,因而从整体上看,科学无疑帮助人类大幅提升了理性能力。 然而,具体到特定个体是否能从一组特定科学知识中受益,或更一般的问,掌握更多科学道理或知识,是否会让你在生活上较为成功或幸福,那就未必了。 科学和技术远未发达到能为每一个体装备一套足以代替人类智慧的辅助决策系统,在日常生活中,即便是最死硬的科学主义者(即所谓死理性派),也只能主要仰赖进化赋予我们的认知能力和文化赋予我们的常识和习惯来指导其行动,科学充其量只能在个别方面提供一些原则性指导,诸如别吃中药别信巫术等等,或在一些高度专业性的领域提供帮助。 这样一来,科学能否在生活上惠及特定个体,便很大程度上取决于他能否在他的整个认知/知识系统中为科学找到恰当的位置,而在这一点上,掌握更多科学知识的人,未必就把握的更好,一个懂得许多科学道理的死理性派,或许会处理的很糟糕。 Q: 你在一堂讲座中讲的那个题目,“进化心理学:习俗如何从个体选择中涌现,以及文化保守性之数学理由”,主要讲了哪些人类行为,有什么主要观点。 A: 讲了一些习俗是如何产生的,比如买卖者为何会集中到某些地点去交易,从而产生集市,交易又为何会自发的集中在某些日子,从而产生集日,何以出现像春节这样的节日,为何过年回家的动机如此强烈,道路是如何自发出现的,等等。 其中用到了协调博弈和资产特化的理论,说起来话长,主要内容包含在《沐猿而冠》第五章的导言里,讲座的视频未来可能会上线。 Q: 你在新浪微博提到的那几条,能分别展开说说? 1)认为智商概念毫无意义的男人,娶的都是聪明女人。2)软件当然也会影响硬件,要不然键盘上的开始键是怎么来的?3)我喝威士忌是装逼,我孙子喝就不是。4)文化隔阂带来痛苦和纷争,那是因为隔阂还不够深。5)男人的乳房不是谜,女人的才是。6)你们都不生孩子没关系,反正穷人会生。 第5条我大概知道一些,我看过你有专门讨论女性乳房的文章,这里可以说说男人为什么有乳腺,这是雄性动物的普遍特征吗,为什么不是谜。 A: 1)不乏有人认为智力不是一个可观察的指标,但进化心理学家大卫•巴斯的大规模调查发现,两性在择偶时,都将对方的智力列为重要的挑选标准,通常和容貌、财富、地位等指标一起排在前几位,这说明,人们有能力(或至少普遍相信自己有能力)评估对方的智力。 2)这是说,文化(软件)也会反过来影响人类的生物学特征(硬件),正如Windows95的流行导致键盘上出现了开始键一样。 3)这是说,有些文化元素在经历几代人传承之后,会内化为个人的价值观,因为人们看待自己幼年期便习得的元素,和看待自己成年之后才遇到的元素,态度会十分不同,前者往往被视为理所当然、无须解释、本身就有价值,而后者则需要一个理由才能接受。 4)这个说来话长,可参考《沐猿而冠》第六章第二篇。 5)首先,乳房是对女性有用的器官,假如我们已认定它对女性有用,那么“男人为何也有乳房”这个问题就很容易回答:因为把男女设计成不同样子要比把他们设计成一个样子更麻烦,所以,进化倾向于让男女尽可能共享同一套设计方案。于是问题变成:乳房对女性有何用?其哺乳功能当然很容易理解,但永久性乳房有何用,这是个非常困难的问题。