[译文]总统外貌学初级教程

When Democracy Meets the Ghost of Evolution: Why Short Presidents Have Vanished
当民主遭遇进化的幽灵:矮个总统为何不再有

作者:Lixing Sun @ 2016-03-02
译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy)
校对:明珠(@老茄爱天一爱亨亨更爱楚楚)
来源:The Evolution Institute,https://evolution-institute.org/article/when-democracy-meets-the-ghost-of-evolution-why-short-presidents-have-vanished/

Size matters in politics: America hasn’t seen a president shorter than 5’7” since William McKinley. A main culprit, unbeknownst to many, comes from voters’ cognitive biases—the work of evolution. And the conundrum took a theatrical turn early this year when Marco Rubio, a Republican presidential hopeful, was spotted wearing a pair of new boots.

身高在政治中很重要。自威廉·麦金利以后,美国已经没有出现过身高低于5英尺7英寸的总统了。一个不为许多人所知的主要原因是选民的认知偏差——这是进化的产物。本年初,这个谜案出现了一个戏剧性转变:来自共和党的总统强力候选人马克·卢比奥穿出了一双新靴子。

“Marco Rubio’s Republican rivals literally are hot on his heels,” opened a New York Post news article on January 6. Speculations followed as to how expensive the boots were. The Rubio camp wasted no time to clarify that they were nothing more than Men’s Florsheim, costing about $100.

“卢比奥的党内对手的热情名副其实地只落后他一个脚跟”,1月6日的《纽约邮报》新闻报道如此开头。随后就有人开始猜测这双靴子有多贵。卢比奥的竞选团队即刻澄清说那只是一双富乐绅男款鞋,价格约100美元。

But the core of Rubio’s “bootgate” brouhaha wasn’t about luxury; it was about the heels—a whole two inches high. “A vote for Marco Rubio” tweeted Rick Tyler, Ted Cruz’s commuatsnications director, “is a vote for Men’s High-Heeled Booties.”

但卢比奥“靴子门”事件喧闹的核心不在于它是不是奢侈品,而在于它的鞋跟——厚达2英寸。“投票支持卢比奥”,泰德·克鲁兹的公关联络主管Rick Tyler在Twitter上说,“就是投票支持男式高跟靴子。”

Why would Rubio sport a pair of, as Rand Paul teased, “cute new boots”? As far as we know, tall men have scores of advantages in life, work, and romance. Among CEOs, for example, 90% are taller than the average man, and only 3% are below 5’7”. In fact, for every inch added to their height, men can get an extra 1.8% (about $800) in wages, an amount duly dubbed by economists as a“height premium.”

为什么卢比奥会穿着一双如兰德·保罗所戏称的“可爱小靴靴”出来卖弄呢?据我们所知,高个子男人在生活、工作和爱情方面都有优势。比如,CEO中90%身高高于男性平均水平,只有3%身高不到5英尺7英寸。事实上,身高每增加1英寸,男性可以多拿1.8%的工资(约800美元),经济学家恰如其分地把这个增加额称为“身高溢价”。

Rubio may be aware that since the beginning of the last century, nearly 70% of the presidential campaigns between the two major parties have been won by the taller candidate. This wasn’t always the case, though. In fact, of the presidents elected before 1900, eleven were shorter than 5’9”, and only nine were taller (see the chart).

卢比奥可能意识到,自上个世纪初以来,两大党之间70%的总统竞选最终是身材更高的候选人获胜。但是,情况并非从来如此。实际上,在1900年以前获选的总统中,11人身高低于5英尺9英寸,只有9人身材比这高(见下图)。

screen-shot-2016-03-02-at-12-35-20-pm

 

After that, however, all short candidates have lost to their tall rivals—James M. Cox (5’6”) to Warren G. Harding (6’0”) in 1920, Thomas Dewey (5’8”) to FDR (6’2”) in 1944, then to Harry S. Truman (5’9”) in 1948, and Michael Dukakis (5’8”) to George H. W. Bush (6’2”) in 1988.

但是,自那以后,所有矮个候选人都输给了他们的高个子对手:1920年,詹姆斯·M·考克斯(5英尺6英寸)输给了沃伦·G·哈丁(6英尺);1944年,托马斯·杜威(5英尺8英寸)输给了F·D·罗斯福(6英尺2英寸),1948年他又输给了哈里·S·杜鲁门(5英尺9英寸);1988年,迈克尔·杜卡基斯(5英尺8英寸)输给了老布什(6英尺2英寸)。

At 5’10”, Rubio is taller than the average American man. Still, he is 5” shorter than the front-runner Donald Trump, a difference you can easily see on the screen during Republican primary debates. By adding two inches to his stature, he hoped to up his chance—if only his rivals weren’t paying attention.

卢比奥身高5英尺10英寸,高于美国男性平均水平。但是,他还是比领跑者唐纳德·特朗普矮5英寸。这一差别在共和党初选辩论的屏幕上看得很清楚。他想通过给自己身高增加2英寸来提高机会——只盼对手不要注意。

Do tall men make good leaders—presidents in particular? I pulled out data from Wikipedia.com and did some statistics (such as the Mann-Whitney U test and Spearman’s rank correlation analysis). And I found no relationship whatsoever between height and performance ranking for all elected presidents before 1900. (Obviously, I can’t do so for the period after 1900 because no short presidents have been elected.)

高个子就能当好领袖吗?特别是,高个子就能当好总统吗?我从维基百科上找数据做了一些统计工作 (比如曼—惠特尼U检验、斯皮尔曼等级相关分析)。我发现,1900年前获选上任的所有总统的身高和他们的任职表现排名之间找不出任何关系。(1900年以后显然无法做这种分析,因为这段时间没有矮个总统获选。)

Why have short American presidents suddenly vanished since 1900?

为什么美国在1900年后突然就没有矮个总统了呢?

The answer, apparently, lies in the use of images in the media. In fact, the advent of the televised debate in 1960 has ushered in even more public scrutiny on candidates’ looks. As a result, no short or bald candidates have made it into the White House since Dwight Eisenhower. (Perhaps, that’s why Trump is careful about his hair—in case people think he is bald.)

答案显然在于媒体对照片的大量使用。实际上,1960年出现的电视辩论使公众对候选人的外貌审查进一步增加。于是,自艾森豪威尔以来,再没有任何矮个或秃顶候选人入主白宫了。(这也许就是特朗普特别在意发型的缘故,他担心人们以为他秃顶。)

How can a candidate’s physical appearance hold such a strong sway on voters’ choices? Psychologists and behavioral economists will point to the halo effect, where a perceived strength—here, the height of a candidate—eclipses all weaknesses. Why, then, are our cognitive systems so naïve as to swoon for something utterly irrelevant (namely, the body size) of a potential leader?

为什么候选人的身体外形如此强烈地左右选民的选择呢?心理学家和行为经济学家可能会说这是因为存在光环效应:人们感知到的某一力量(此处就是候选人的身高)会遮蔽所有弱点。那么,我们的认知系统为什么如此幼稚,竟会被准领导人完全无关的某些特征(即体型大小)迷住心神呢?

The answer lies in our evolutionary past. Research shows that in a vast number of animals, from insects to mammals, body size can robustly predict winners when resources and mates are at stake. In primates, alpha males are usually large and assuming. (That’s why, even for a novice, it often takes just a glance to spot them in a bunch.) Not only do they win more fights, but females also fall for them.

答案就是我们的进化史。研究表明,对于从昆虫到哺乳类的大量动物而言,在资源和配偶成问题的情况下,体型大小能牢靠的预测谁会胜出。灵长类的雄性领袖通常都高大专横。(因此即便是新手也能从一群动物中一眼认出它们。)它们不但能赢取更多战斗,而且能收获雌性的喜爱。

This process favoring large body size is known as sexual selection, and apparently, it also worked for our Stone-Age ancestors. Even in modern tribal societies, from the Amazons to Papua New Guinea, tall, husky men are still widely preferred as chiefs—or “Big Men,” in Polynesia and other Pacific islands. No wonder our cognitive systems are tuned to looking for tall guys as leaders or mates—the hunks, in our colloquial lingo.

这一偏爱大块头体格的进程叫作性选择,我们石器时代的祖先们显然也受到了影响。即便在现存的部落社会中,从亚马逊丛林到巴布亚新几内亚,人们依然普遍更喜欢接受高大魁梧的男性当首领——或者“大人”,波利尼西亚和其他太平洋岛屿上就用这种称呼。因此,我们的认知系统会调整到找高个男人(——就是俗话说的hunk)做领袖或配偶,这毫不奇怪。

Since 1900, apparently, our liking for hunks hadn’t hit a major hitch until Harding was elected. In appearance, Harding was tall, virile, and gracious with thick eyebrows, wide shoulders, and a deep voice—features that can provoke a feeling of being macho, resolute, and competent.

显然自1900年以来,我们对大个头肌肉男的喜爱直到哈丁当选都没有遭遇什么大挫败。哈丁眉毛浓密、肩膀宽阔、声音低沉,身材高大雄壮且和蔼可亲。这些特征让人觉得他富于男性气概、做事果断干练。

Indeed, he rose from being a small town newspaper editor to an Ohio state senator, a US senator, and finally the president. But just after two years in the Oval Office, Harding’s impressive suite of manly features turned out to be all fake. They did nothing but make him a womanizer.

实际上,他最早只是一个小镇的报纸编辑,后来当上俄亥俄州参议员,然后是国会参议员,最后成为总统。但入主白宫椭圆办公室才2年,哈丁那些令人印象深刻的全套男性气质完全变成了假相。它们没有什么用处,只是让他风流成性而已。

He is called, according to the U.S. News, “an ineffectual leader who played poker while his friends plundered the U.S. treasury.” Even Harding himself confessed, “I am not fit for this office and should never have been here.” When he died, rumors had it that his wife had poisoned him, not out of jealousy but to salvage his reputation from the charges of corruption in his administration.

据《美国新闻杂志》,他被称为“当同伙们洗劫美国国库时还在玩扑克牌的无能领袖。”连哈丁本人都承认,“我不适合这个职位,一开始就不应该到这来。”他死后,有传言说他是被妻子毒害的,原因不是嫉妒,而是为了补救他被控任内腐败的名声。

As the ghost of our evolutionary past lingers on, there is no reason why hunks with Harding’s physique won’t be elected again. If you have any doubt, think about Arnold Schwarzenegger. How much of a halo did he draw from his muscles as a body builder and his fame as an action movie star to win the Californian gubernatorial race in 2002?

进化史的幽灵一直在徘徊,因此没有理由认为拥有哈丁那种体格的大个头肌肉男不会再次被选上。如果你有任何疑虑,想想阿诺德·施瓦辛格。他那身健身运动员的肌肉和作为动作电影巨星的名气到底为他赢得2002年加州州长竞选贡献了多少光环?

It’s disconcerting for all concerned citizens to realize that in our age of television and the Internet, presidential elections share much with pageants for Mr. America. If our guts are all we rely on in the process, even the 5’7” John Adams or the 5’4” James Madison may not stand a chance to be elected today.

在电视和互联网时代,总统选举和美国先生选美有很多共同点。所有关心公共事务的公民因意识到这一点而心神不安。如果我们只依赖本能的话,那么5英尺7英寸的约翰·亚当斯或者5英尺4英寸的詹姆斯·麦迪逊今天若参选可能就没有机会胜出。

By forgoing a vast pool of talents from women, short men, and minority citizens (except Obama), how can we find the most capable person to lead our nation? In this sense, putting a woman in the White House will mark a new milestone in American democracy: it can break the entrenched spell—our cognitive biases for hunks—imposed by the ghost of evolution.

把妇女、矮个子、少数族裔(奥巴马除外)中的大量天才排除在考虑之外,我们怎么找出最有能力领导我们国家的人呢?从这个角度来说,选出一位女性入主白宫将成为美国民主新的里程碑:它将破除进化幽灵加在我们身上根深蒂固的魔咒,即我们钟情大个头肌肉男的认知偏差。

(编辑:辉格@whigzhou)

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——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——

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When Democracy Meets the Ghost of Evolution: Why Short Presidents Have Vanished 当民主遭遇进化的幽灵:矮个总统为何不再有 作者:Lixing Sun @ 2016-03-02 译者:沈沉(@你在何地-sxy) 校对:明珠(@老茄爱天一爱亨亨更爱楚楚) 来源:The Evolution Institute,https://evolution-institute.org/article/when-democracy-meets-the-ghost-of-evolution-why-short-presidents-have-vanished/ Size matters in politics: America hasn’t seen a president shorter than 5’7” since William McKinley. A main culprit, unbeknownst to many, comes from voters’ cognitive biases—the work of evolution. And the conundrum took a theatrical turn early this year when Marco Rubio, a Republican presidential hopeful, was spotted wearing a pair of new boots. 身高在政治中很重要。自威廉·麦金利以后,美国已经没有出现过身高低于5英尺7英寸的总统了。一个不为许多人所知的主要原因是选民的认知偏差——这是进化的产物。本年初,这个谜案出现了一个戏剧性转变:来自共和党的总统强力候选人马克·卢比奥穿出了一双新靴子。 “Marco Rubio’s Republican rivals literally are hot on his heels,” opened a New York Post news article on January 6. Speculations followed as to how expensive the boots were. The Rubio camp wasted no time to clarify that they were nothing more than Men’s Florsheim, costing about $100. “卢比奥的党内对手的热情名副其实地只落后他一个脚跟”,1月6日的《纽约邮报》新闻报道如此开头。随后就有人开始猜测这双靴子有多贵。卢比奥的竞选团队即刻澄清说那只是一双富乐绅男款鞋,价格约100美元。 But the core of Rubio’s “bootgate” brouhaha wasn’t about luxury; it was about the heels—a whole two inches high. “A vote for Marco Rubio” tweeted Rick Tyler, Ted Cruz’s commuatsnications director, “is a vote for Men’s High-Heeled Booties.” 但卢比奥“靴子门”事件喧闹的核心不在于它是不是奢侈品,而在于它的鞋跟——厚达2英寸。“投票支持卢比奥”,泰德·克鲁兹的公关联络主管Rick Tyler在Twitter上说,“就是投票支持男式高跟靴子。” Why would Rubio sport a pair of, as Rand Paul teased, “cute new boots”? As far as we know, tall men have scores of advantages in life, work, and romance. Among CEOs, for example, 90% are taller than the average man, and only 3% are below 5’7”. In fact, for every inch added to their height, men can get an extra 1.8% (about $800) in wages, an amount duly dubbed by economists as a“height premium.” 为什么卢比奥会穿着一双如兰德·保罗所戏称的“可爱小靴靴”出来卖弄呢?据我们所知,高个子男人在生活、工作和爱情方面都有优势。比如,CEO中90%身高高于男性平均水平,只有3%身高不到5英尺7英寸。事实上,身高每增加1英寸,男性可以多拿1.8%的工资(约800美元),经济学家恰如其分地把这个增加额称为“身高溢价”。 Rubio may be aware that since the beginning of the last century, nearly 70% of the presidential campaigns between the two major parties have been won by the taller candidate. This wasn’t always the case, though. In fact, of the presidents elected before 1900, eleven were shorter than 5’9”, and only nine were taller (see the chart). 卢比奥可能意识到,自上个世纪初以来,两大党之间70%的总统竞选最终是身材更高的候选人获胜。但是,情况并非从来如此。实际上,在1900年以前获选的总统中,11人身高低于5英尺9英寸,只有9人身材比这高(见下图)。 screen-shot-2016-03-02-at-12-35-20-pm   After that, however, all short candidates have lost to their tall rivals—James M. Cox (5’6”) to Warren G. Harding (6’0”) in 1920, Thomas Dewey (5’8”) to FDR (6’2”) in 1944, then to Harry S. Truman (5’9”) in 1948, and Michael Dukakis (5’8”) to George H. W. Bush (6’2”) in 1988. 但是,自那以后,所有矮个候选人都输给了他们的高个子对手:1920年,詹姆斯·M·考克斯(5英尺6英寸)输给了沃伦·G·哈丁(6英尺);1944年,托马斯·杜威(5英尺8英寸)输给了F·D·罗斯福(6英尺2英寸),1948年他又输给了哈里·S·杜鲁门(5英尺9英寸);1988年,迈克尔·杜卡基斯(5英尺8英寸)输给了老布什(6英尺2英寸)。 At 5’10”, Rubio is taller than the average American man. Still, he is 5” shorter than the front-runner Donald Trump, a difference you can easily see on the screen during Republican primary debates. By adding two inches to his stature, he hoped to up his chance—if only his rivals weren’t paying attention. 卢比奥身高5英尺10英寸,高于美国男性平均水平。但是,他还是比领跑者唐纳德·特朗普矮5英寸。这一差别在共和党初选辩论的屏幕上看得很清楚。他想通过给自己身高增加2英寸来提高机会——只盼对手不要注意。 Do tall men make good leaders—presidents in particular? I pulled out data from Wikipedia.com and did some statistics (such as the Mann-Whitney U test and Spearman’s rank correlation analysis). And I found no relationship whatsoever between height and performance ranking for all elected presidents before 1900. (Obviously, I can’t do so for the period after 1900 because no short presidents have been elected.) 高个子就能当好领袖吗?特别是,高个子就能当好总统吗?我从维基百科上找数据做了一些统计工作 (比如曼—惠特尼U检验、斯皮尔曼等级相关分析)。我发现,1900年前获选上任的所有总统的身高和他们的任职表现排名之间找不出任何关系。(1900年以后显然无法做这种分析,因为这段时间没有矮个总统获选。) Why have short American presidents suddenly vanished since 1900? 为什么美国在1900年后突然就没有矮个总统了呢? The answer, apparently, lies in the use of images in the media. In fact, the advent of the televised debate in 1960 has ushered in even more public scrutiny on candidates’ looks. As a result, no short or bald candidates have made it into the White House since Dwight Eisenhower. (Perhaps, that’s why Trump is careful about his hair—in case people think he is bald.) 答案显然在于媒体对照片的大量使用。实际上,1960年出现的电视辩论使公众对候选人的外貌审查进一步增加。于是,自艾森豪威尔以来,再没有任何矮个或秃顶候选人入主白宫了。(这也许就是特朗普特别在意发型的缘故,他担心人们以为他秃顶。) How can a candidate’s physical appearance hold such a strong sway on voters’ choices? Psychologists and behavioral economists will point to the halo effect, where a perceived strength—here, the height of a candidate—eclipses all weaknesses. Why, then, are our cognitive systems so naïve as to swoon for something utterly irrelevant (namely, the body size) of a potential leader? 为什么候选人的身体外形如此强烈地左右选民的选择呢?心理学家和行为经济学家可能会说这是因为存在光环效应:人们感知到的某一力量(此处就是候选人的身高)会遮蔽所有弱点。那么,我们的认知系统为什么如此幼稚,竟会被准领导人完全无关的某些特征(即体型大小)迷住心神呢? The answer lies in our evolutionary past. Research shows that in a vast number of animals, from insects to mammals, body size can robustly predict winners when resources and mates are at stake. In primates, alpha males are usually large and assuming. (That’s why, even for a novice, it often takes just a glance to spot them in a bunch.) Not only do they win more fights, but females also fall for them. 答案就是我们的进化史。研究表明,对于从昆虫到哺乳类的大量动物而言,在资源和配偶成问题的情况下,体型大小能牢靠的预测谁会胜出。灵长类的雄性领袖通常都高大专横。(因此即便是新手也能从一群动物中一眼认出它们。)它们不但能赢取更多战斗,而且能收获雌性的喜爱。 This process favoring large body size is known as sexual selection, and apparently, it also worked for our Stone-Age ancestors. Even in modern tribal societies, from the Amazons to Papua New Guinea, tall, husky men are still widely preferred as chiefs—or “Big Men,” in Polynesia and other Pacific islands. No wonder our cognitive systems are tuned to looking for tall guys as leaders or mates—the hunks, in our colloquial lingo. 这一偏爱大块头体格的进程叫作性选择,我们石器时代的祖先们显然也受到了影响。即便在现存的部落社会中,从亚马逊丛林到巴布亚新几内亚,人们依然普遍更喜欢接受高大魁梧的男性当首领——或者“大人”,波利尼西亚和其他太平洋岛屿上就用这种称呼。因此,我们的认知系统会调整到找高个男人(——就是俗话说的hunk)做领袖或配偶,这毫不奇怪。 Since 1900, apparently, our liking for hunks hadn’t hit a major hitch until Harding was elected. In appearance, Harding was tall, virile, and gracious with thick eyebrows, wide shoulders, and a deep voice—features that can provoke a feeling of being macho, resolute, and competent. 显然自1900年以来,我们对大个头肌肉男的喜爱直到哈丁当选都没有遭遇什么大挫败。哈丁眉毛浓密、肩膀宽阔、声音低沉,身材高大雄壮且和蔼可亲。这些特征让人觉得他富于男性气概、做事果断干练。 Indeed, he rose from being a small town newspaper editor to an Ohio state senator, a US senator, and finally the president. But just after two years in the Oval Office, Harding’s impressive suite of manly features turned out to be all fake. They did nothing but make him a womanizer. 实际上,他最早只是一个小镇的报纸编辑,后来当上俄亥俄州参议员,然后是国会参议员,最后成为总统。但入主白宫椭圆办公室才2年,哈丁那些令人印象深刻的全套男性气质完全变成了假相。它们没有什么用处,只是让他风流成性而已。 He is called, according to the U.S. News, “an ineffectual leader who played poker while his friends plundered the U.S. treasury.” Even Harding himself confessed, “I am not fit for this office and should never have been here.” When he died, rumors had it that his wife had poisoned him, not out of jealousy but to salvage his reputation from the charges of corruption in his administration. 据《美国新闻杂志》,他被称为“当同伙们洗劫美国国库时还在玩扑克牌的无能领袖。”连哈丁本人都承认,“我不适合这个职位,一开始就不应该到这来。”他死后,有传言说他是被妻子毒害的,原因不是嫉妒,而是为了补救他被控任内腐败的名声。 As the ghost of our evolutionary past lingers on, there is no reason why hunks with Harding’s physique won’t be elected again. If you have any doubt, think about Arnold Schwarzenegger. How much of a halo did he draw from his muscles as a body builder and his fame as an action movie star to win the Californian gubernatorial race in 2002? 进化史的幽灵一直在徘徊,因此没有理由认为拥有哈丁那种体格的大个头肌肉男不会再次被选上。如果你有任何疑虑,想想阿诺德·施瓦辛格。他那身健身运动员的肌肉和作为动作电影巨星的名气到底为他赢得2002年加州州长竞选贡献了多少光环? It’s disconcerting for all concerned citizens to realize that in our age of television and the Internet, presidential elections share much with pageants for Mr. America. If our guts are all we rely on in the process, even the 5’7” John Adams or the 5’4” James Madison may not stand a chance to be elected today. 在电视和互联网时代,总统选举和美国先生选美有很多共同点。所有关心公共事务的公民因意识到这一点而心神不安。如果我们只依赖本能的话,那么5英尺7英寸的约翰·亚当斯或者5英尺4英寸的詹姆斯·麦迪逊今天若参选可能就没有机会胜出。 By forgoing a vast pool of talents from women, short men, and minority citizens (except Obama), how can we find the most capable person to lead our nation? In this sense, putting a woman in the White House will mark a new milestone in American democracy: it can break the entrenched spell—our cognitive biases for hunks—imposed by the ghost of evolution. 把妇女、矮个子、少数族裔(奥巴马除外)中的大量天才排除在考虑之外,我们怎么找出最有能力领导我们国家的人呢?从这个角度来说,选出一位女性入主白宫将成为美国民主新的里程碑:它将破除进化幽灵加在我们身上根深蒂固的魔咒,即我们钟情大个头肌肉男的认知偏差。 (编辑:辉格@whigzhou) *注:本译文未经原作者授权,本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利,如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容,请私信联系,我们会立即作出响应。

——海德沙龙·翻译组,致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——



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